North Shore SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver Broncos +7 over Baltimore Ravens
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We have little doubt that the Ravens have a better team than Denver, but this is a situational play as the Ravens are coming off of a big emotional win at Pittsburgh, a win they needed in a stadium where they have never had much success to avoid falling two games behind the Steelers through four games played. Now tied for the division lead, they can be excused for relaxing a bit here vs. a non-division rival. Besides, the Broncos have now played three good games in a row, routing the Seahawks, playing the Colts tough and then upsetting the Titans on the road.
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Cincinnati Bengals -6½ over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Bengals have a bye week coming up, which puts them in a very profitable NFL angle here that says to bet on NFL favorites of -6½ or more entering their bye (35-8 ATS since 2002). No team wants to think about a loss for two weeks, and the Bengals certainly have the talent to prevent that here. The Buccaneers may be ready to come back to earth, as they got stomped at home by the Steelers before their own bye last week after getting off to a surprising 2-0 start.
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St. Louis Rams +3 over Detroit Lions
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Winless favorites have traditionally been great bets in the NFL, but the Lions are coming off of back-to-back emotionally draining road division losses. While Coach Jim Schwartz deserves credit for getting the most out of a Lions team with limited talent, we do not see them being too enthused about facing the Rams after the last two games. That is just fine with us, as St. Louis has shown just how improved they are by posting back-to-back upset wins, and they could have a great defensive line for the next decade as long as they hold on to their young studs.
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Houston Texans -3 over New York Giants
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This line with the Texans being favored by a field goal at home suggests that these teams would be equal on a neutral field. That seems like an overreaction to the Giants; dominant defensive performance on national television last week, as the New York offense is still very erratic. Also, the deficiencies in the Giants’ secondary were masked by their lethal pass rush vs. the Bears, but the Houston offensive line is better than Chicago’s, and given time, Matt Schaub can exploit that suspect defensive backfield. Of course, this would be easier if Andre Johnson returns from injury, but the Texans put up 31 points without him last week vs. the Raiders.
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St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions
Prediction: Detroit Lions
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The winless last place Lions host the first place Rams, yet Detroit is laying points. Whats going on, you ask? For openers, the linesmakers are especially astute and they know what they are doing (its going on four years since a St. Louis team has won three straight games). FYI: the Rams will likely need to win this game in order to grab the cash as they are 2-21 straight up in their last 23 underdog roles. It?s also been 40 straight games since the Rams last dressed up as a favorite. Granted, the Lions are hard to swallow when gulping chalk, going 0-4 ATS the last four times they laid points. Detroit?s defense has statistically improved in each game this season, holding the Packers to a season low 261 yards in last weeks two-point inside-out loss. Considering that 0-4 home favorites are 9-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in Game Five of the season since 1998, we'll look for the Lions to finally roar here today.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts -7
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This is a very good spot for the Colts and they are getting great value with this line. Indianapolis is coming off a gut-wrenching loss against Jacksonville on a last second 59-yard field goal. Losses like that can absolutely kill a team going forward but we are not talking about any average team here. The defeat evened the record at 2-2 but a return home should right the ship as three of the first four games were on the road and this is a great opportunity for a bounceback. The Chiefs are the lone undefeated team in the league right now and that is definitely playing into the value of this line. Kansas City is coming off its best win as it mauled the 49ers by 21 points and outgained them by 206 total yards. While it can be considered that the victory was a huge confidence booster, there is a big problem preventing that in my opinion and that is the bye. Whatever momentum the Chiefs had with that 3-0 start was lost as the week off could not have come at a worse time. The strength of the Chiefs is their running game while the weakness of the Colts has been stopping the run. Indianapolis is allowing 149.5 ypg on 5.0 ypc, both of which are 30th in the league but it has been the situations that have done the damage. Namely playing on the road. The Colts are a speed defense so getting them back home on the carpet is a perfect cure for the unit. That advantage will be big as they are going to force Matt Cassel and his 75.4 quarterback rating to beat them. On the other side, it will be important for the Colts to run the ball better. Indianapolis is 29th in the NFL on the ground offensively, averaging just 75.5 ypg, and rushing for fewer than 60 yards in three of four games. Getting the running game going will keep the defense honest and despite the lack of a strong rushing attack, the Colts are 3rd in the league in overall offense, averaging 411 ypg and that shows the damage that Peyton Manning has done. His rating of 112.2 is tops in the league. The Chiefs have been inconsistent defending the pass as they are yielding 238 ypg which is 25th in the NFL and that is certainly a problem here. This situation is when Manning is at his best as only three times since 2005 has Indianapolis dropped consecutive games when Manning has played 60 minutes. The Chiefs did a number on the high-powered attack of the Chargers but that was at home and San Diego killed itself with mistakes and I don’t see Manning capable of that at home. The Chiefs have allowed 14 points or fewer in all three games but it is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games. The Colts also fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 49-22 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. Look for the Colts to bounce back in a big way and end the Chiefs unblemished start to the season. 3* Indianapolis Colts
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +1
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Jacksonville is a much better team than Buffalo. In fact JAC coming off Indy win might have best win on the season. Love the running attack of Jags as Jones-Drew can carve them up. Once the run game is effective watch for the play action pass for some late big plays. Defensively the Jags also have a big stats edge. Buffalo is a mess of a franchise and today they will continue their losing ways.
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Jaguars @ BillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PICK: Over 41FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We don’t think of the Bills and the Jaguars as particularly explosive offensive teams. We’re not going to see much upward pressure on this total as we approach kickoff. And we’re talking about two of the least effective defenses in the NFL, two defenses that simply haven’t been able to get a key stop all year long. That puts us in play supporting the Over on Sunday in Buffalo.
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The numbers don’t lie. Buffalo’s defense has allowed opposing QB’s to have a 111.3 QB rating against them this year, dead last in the NFL. They’ve allowed 34, 38 and 38 points over the last three weeks. The Bills gave up more than 250 rushing yards to the Jets last week after allowing 200 rushing yards to the Pats the previous week. Jacksonville’s offense doesn’t work against quality run defenses, but against this level of defense, we can expect plenty of success from David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew.
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The Jaguars defense is just as bad as the Bills defense. Jacksonville has allowed an opposing QB rating of 105.6, ranked 30th out of 32 NFL teams. They are giving up an NFL worst 6.7 yards per play, way over the league average of 5.3 ypp. Jack Del Rio’s squad has allowed 28+ in each of the last three weeks, paving the way for Bills playmakers Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson to trade scores with the Jaguars all game long. 2* Take the Over.
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New Orleans – over ArizonaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Saints are taking a lot of criticism for failing to produce at last year's levels but at 3-1 through a tough early schedule New Orleans is in a good position in a NFC that lacks stand out contenders. Losing the top two threats in the backfield to injury will be an adjustment for the offense but New Orleans should have opportunities against a Cardinals team that has performed much worse than a 2-2 team. Arizona has been fortunate in both wins and blown out in both losses. The Cardinals have allowed more yards than all but three teams in the NFL this season and the offense has averaged just 249 yards per game. The QB situation for the Cardinals is the worst in the NFL with Derek Anderson being pulled last week for Max Hall and the once explosive passing attack has averaged a league worst 150 yards per game. The Saints will clearly have a big edge in the air in this match-up and the Arizona defense also has the worst run defense in the league. The Saints are undervalued with some questions regarding the health of Drew Brees and lower than expected production but New Orleans beat the Cardinals 45-14 last season in the playoffs. This week New Orleans faces a lower spread than in that game when Kurt Warner was leading the Arizona offense and the Saints are 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 games as road favorites.
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Buffalo Bills -1.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bills enter this game at 0-4 but their schedule has been brutal as they have played the Dolphins, Packers, Patriots and Jets. Buffalo will be happy to being playing against a Jacksonville team that struggles on the road. This game has letdown written all over it as the Jags are coming off of a huge home underdog win over the Colts and now find themselves as a road favorite against the winless Bills. Jacksonville is very untrustworthy on the road and even though they are 2-2 the Jags should not be considered a serious playoff contender. The Bills offense is showing signs of life with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and after facing a very tough New York defense last week the Bills offense should be able to do some damage against a soft Jacksonville defense. The Jags have lost their last four road games by a combined score of 116-40 and are on a 4-16 overall slide against the spread. Look for Buffalo to pick up there first win of the season. Take the points.
JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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ARI +7 vs NOSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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JR O have you lost your mind " Arizona"? Those of you who follow us closely realize that we are not afraid to rock the boat and go the other way to make some serious $$$$ in this business!! Let's roll out an ugly home dog that will bite Sunday!! The Arizona Cards + 7 grab our free play winner as the Cards will hang with a beat up Saints crew on Sunday... Way way too easy to grab the Saints @- 7 to a team that just got tattooed by 30 last game. The Saints are the public darling @ 80% so fat & are a mess. Key injuries to Bush & Pierre Thomas being out really puts the pressure on D Brees. The Saints D secondary is a mess too boys! This is the NFL boys and we feel we will get a monster effort our of the Ariz Cards. Brees does not have all the pieces to the puzzle! The Cards are starting Max Hall @ Qb and he just has to protect the rock. The Cards check in here @ +4 which is a 3 point power rating swing!! The Cards are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. & flip side the Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
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SDC -6 vs OAKFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Okay guys, this is quite possibly the squarest wager of the young season but I've been involved in sports wagering for many decades and not just years. Guess what? Sometimes Joe Public cashed his ticket too. I went with the Chargers last week against the Cardinals and they basically mugged them. Oakland and the Chargers do not care for one another and that is like saying Sean Hannity and Keith Olberman have some differences of opinion. Fact is Phillip Rivers, despite being quite possibly the most arrogant quarterback in the league these days, is in his prime and is a competitor that will get his offense up for this battle. San Diego has owned this series sweeping the season series for the last six seasons. Rivers had to be licking his chops for his opportunity to expose this leaky Raider defense that ranks a poor 31st overall and from what I've observed, can certainly be run on at will. I fully realize this can smell like a classic trap but I think some folks are going to outsmart themselves and be kicking themselves when this thing is settled. No Triple Star but the Chargers laying less than a touchdown merits a wager in my opinion. Thanks as always guys, enjoy your Sunday and take care!
James Patrick SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Packers vs. RedskinsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Look for Mike Shanahan to allow Donovan McNabb to throw the football more often this week. McNabb, who is playing through a tight quadriceps muscle, is only (27-for-51) (53%) for (361) yards, (2) TD and (2) INT in his last two games. But the Packers pass defense looked vulnerable last week, allowing over (300) yards and two scores to Shaun Hill and the Lions. Green Bay’s run defense has also had its problems, allowing (120) or more rushing yards in three of its four games. Shanahan is (28-8) OVER in a home game where the total is between (42.5) and (45) points in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Shanahan (29.4), OPPONENT (20.4). Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in Sunday NFL action is Green Bay - Washington Over the Total.
Insider angles
Rams at Lions
The 0-4 Detroit Lions are favored in this game vs. the St. Louis Rams because they have actually been competitive in every single game despite facing four superior opponents, and they are now finally facing a team closer to their level while seeking revenge vs. a Rams team that won here in Detroit last year, the only win in a 1-15 St. Louis campaign.
The Lions lost to the Bears by five points in Week 1 in a game they had won until a Calvin Johnson touchdown catch was overruled by replay in the final minute, they lost by three points to the Eagles in Week 2, by 14 points to the Vikings in Week 3 in what was a seven-point game until the final minutes and then by two points at Green Bay last week. Add in the revenge factor and the fact that 0-4 teams are 22-8, 73.3 percent ATS since 2000 and the Lions are a lock, right?
Well, as out buddy Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend!” While we would normally be all over Detroit under these circumstances, what stands out to us in this case and makes us love the visiting Rams is that Detroit is coming off of back-to-back emotional, tight division losses, with the 28-26 defeat at storied Lambeau Field last week being particularly gut-wrenching. We feel the Lions have been overachieving, and just don’t think they have anything left in the tank.
This is especially true for a non-divisional battle, and in case you have not noticed, the Rams have a good football team this year. They have doubled their 2009 win total in the last two weeks alone, as wise drafting the last few years is coming to fruition. This year’s top pick, quarterback Sam Bradford, is showing great poise beyond his years, and their young defensive line, led by another first round pick in Chris Long, should be set for the next decade barring injuries.
The defensive line is the primary reason St. Louis is surprisingly allowing only 13.0 points per game this season, and as hard as the Lions have played, they are still averaging only 3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass attempt offensively, and we do not expect them to generate much vs. the aggressive, young Rams’ defense.
Look for a mild upset here as the Rams go to a surprising 3-2 while Detroit falls to 0-5.
Pick: Rams +3
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Giants at Texans
Play: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston games are averaging 52.5 total points. The Giants lone road game combined for 52 points. Play the Over with road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) who outgain their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play. This system has cashed 68% (57-27) of the time since 1983. Consider the team trends. New York Giants are 6-0 OVER as an underdog, 8-1 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game and 5-1 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more. Good luck -
Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta BravesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Braves return home with a bit of momentum after Rick Ankiel's extra innings home run tied this series. Atlanta is a completely different team at home where they are 56-25 and hitting .270 as a team. They'll face lefty Jonathan Sanchez who is 13-9 with a 3.08 ERA in 33 starts this season. The lefty is 5-5 with a 2.86 ERA on the road. Sanchez faced the Braves twice this season giving up seven runs and 12 hits in 8.3 innings of work. He is 1-2 with a 5.55 ERA in five starts overall against Atlanta. Nate McLouth (3-7), Brian McCann (3-7), Melky Cabrera (2-5), Alex Gonzalez (1-3), and Brooks Conrad (1-2) have good numbers against Sanchez. The big issue with the Giants starter is that he only averages approximately 5.8 innings per start. That means a bullpen that has an ERA of 3.74 on the road will come into play. This is the same unit that coughed up Game 2 and has blown 10 saves on the road. Last year, the Braves were one of the better teams in the league against left-handed pitchers. They average 5.6 runs per game in the daytime going 31-23 in the process. Tim Hudson has been a fantastic story for the Braves this season. He's 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA in 34 starts. Hudson has enjoyed pitching at home where he is 11-5 with a 2.48 ERA. The Braves starter gave up just two runs and six hits over 15 innings pitched against the Giants including a 3-0 win back in August. Pat Burrell (7-34), Freddy Sanchez (3-21), Cody Ross (2-15), Edgar Renteria (2-10), Pablo Sandoval (1-6), Juan Uribe (0-5), Andres Torres (0-3), and Nate Schierholtz (0-2) all have poor numbers against Hudson. The Giants are hitting .250 as a team on the road and .227 in the NLDS series so far. They'll face a Braves bullpen that is 19-4 with a 2.93 ERA at home blowing only seven saves out of 31 opportunities. Atlanta has been solid at home all season so we’ll recommend a play on the Braves over the Giants this afternoon.
Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns +3
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The Browns fit a nice system here that plays on home dogs of 5 in non conference games if they are off a home dog win. The Browns finally won a game last week vs The Bengals. Now they get an Atlanta team that survived a scare against San Francisco. The Browns have an excellent 6-0 ats record at home vs .666 or better teams. They have also covered 12 of 14 times after the Bengals. Look for the Browns to surprise Atlanta here today. Take the Points with Cleveland.
BIG ALFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Giants @ BravesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PICK: Under 7FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Superior starting pitching has been the story in games one and two of this series, and it finally took a bullpen meltdown by the Giants relievers in game two for somebody to break through and actually score some runs. Expect the starting pitching battle to continue again this afternoon in Atlanta as two more warriors in lefthander Jonathan Sanchez and righthander Tim Hudson take the mound for their respective teams. Hudson in particular was impressive down the stretch for his team, especially given the lack of run support he was getting most of the time when he went out there. He received some help from his hitters in his last start on October 3, but in the 13 starts before that one, the Braves only scored more than four runs once, and only plated more than three on three occasions. Sanchez found himself in a very similar situation as Hudson late in the season, as the Giants hitters scored more than four runs only three times in his last 11 starts, but Sanchez has been so brilliant down the stretch that his team still went 7-4 in those games. The Braves hitters had plenty of trouble in the first two games with Lincecum and Cain, who are both righthanders, and now they have to face a very good lefty knowing that they have struggled this season against them (11th in the NL in batting vs. southpaws). Take the 'under.'