Doc’s Sports
Denver over New England
The Broncos are the most surprising of the teams that currently sit at 4-0. After a miracle victory in Week 1 over Cincinnati, they have looked outstanding in their last three games including a victory over the Cowboys last Sunday. They now face their toughest opponent yet, the 3-1 New England Patriots. The Pats looked good last week in their game over Baltimore, but still needed a dropped pass on 4th down and a phantom roughing the passer call against Tom Brady. Denver has a strong defense and will enter this fifth game of the season allowing just 26 total points in their first four games. That is tops in the league and a strong defense will always keep you in games. New England has played a home heavy schedule thus far in 2009 and this is only their second road game of the season. Getting points at home, one of the best defenses in the league, and a quarterback that does not make mistakes all leads up to play the dog. Denver 21, New England 17.
Ben Burns
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants
Prediction: Oakland Raiders
Few are going to want to back the visiting Raiders here. I feel that they're providing us with excellent value though and that this will prove to be a "good spot" to play on them. Yes, the Giants have been very impressive, going 4-0 SU/ATS. However, they're playing their first game back home, after three straight on the road, and they've got a date with the undefeated Saints on deck. Between patting themselves on the back from their terrific start and looking ahead to next week's big game, they could easily overlook the lowly Raiders.
Note that the Giants, who are still dealing with several injuries, haven't been favored by this many points at any time in recent history. As for the Raiders, as bad as they've been, they haven't been underdogs of this size in recent memory, either. Pointspreads just don't get this high in the NFL all that often. Note that the Giants have seen three of their four games decided by 11 points or less, including two of them by six points or less.
The Raiders have managed to go a profitable 5-3 ATS, since the start of the 2008 season, when they've been listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. They're also 10-6 ATS their last 16 games against teams from the NFC East. While they've been blown out in back to back games, they'd seen each of their first two games decided by four points or less. Note that the last time that they were off back to back double-digit losses, the Raider responded by winning outright vs. Houston. They should be motivated to avoid a third straight blowout loss and I look for them to be more competitive than most will be expecting. Consider taking the points.
Wunderdog
Minnesota at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis +10.5
There isn't an argument to be made here that St. Louis belongs on the field against the Vikings as the Vikes are a perfect 4-0 and the Rams a very imperfect 0-4. We saw on Monday night a Vikings team that looks like Super Bowl material. But that was a huge game for them and Brett Favre. How do they get excited here, on the short week, facing the Rams after that huge Monday Night game? Brett Favre feels like he just won the Super Bowl as beating the Packers was about as important to him. To add fuel to the letdown-fire, the Vikings have monster games vs. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay again coming over the next month. If there were ever time for a breather, this week is it. The Rams offense has already been shut-out twice and has produced 21 points for opposing teams while generating just 24 themselves. This has to be as ugly a looking game as you could find on the card. That thought has been embraced by the public as well as they are lining up at nearly 90% on the Vikings, as if they already knew the final score. If the NFL truly worked that way everyone would be a millionaire. Sports bettors would be punching these giveaway easy win games each week and living the high-life in Beverly Hills. The problem for those folks is that the the NFL doesn't work that way. Despite favorites covering at a 67% rate the past two weeks, ugly is what covers in the NFL long term. If it didn't work this way, the bookmakers would be broke. So the argument here isn't to promote St. Louis as a good team, or disrobe a 4-0 Viking team. Instead the case is to be made for how classic an NFL game this is. A similar setup occurred in week six a year ago as the high-flying Dallas Cowboys were installed as a 9-point favorite coming to St. Louis. The Cowboys lost that game by 20! The Lions didn't win a single game last year, but they went on the road in their last six games as a double-digit dog and went 6-0 ATS. The fact is, 0-4 teams are 34-17 ATS since 1990. How ugly do you think those teams looked going into those games? It doesn't get much uglier than 0-4. But, they got the money 67% of the time. Put those same teams up as a double-digit dog and they are 14-4 ATS and if they are a double-digit home dog, they are 3-0! While Joe Square is afraid of the chance he'll have his money on a team that loses 27-3, we aren't Joe Square. We are willing to risk that outcome, knowing that long term we are on the right side. Ugly is where the money is in the NFL and mine is on the Rams.
Norm Hitzges
Double Play
Philadelphia -14.5 vs Tampa
Single Plays
New England -3 vs Denver
Carolina -3.5 vs Washington
Seattle pk vs Jacksonville
Tennessee +3.5 vs Indianapolis
Kansas City +8 vs Dallas
St. Louis/Minnesota Under 41
Philly/Tampa Under 42.5
New England/Denver Under 41
Houston/Arizona Over 50
JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
5 UNIT PLAY (Total Of The Month)
Washington/ Carolina Under 37.5
Panthers have a 23.8 Offensive YPP (Yards Per Point), while the Skins YPP is 23.2. Just a recap for you, an average or good offensive YPP is 14 or below. Panther To's have given their opponents short field the last few weeks, but I feel the time off will have helped them correct some of the problems, which should me more time consuming possessions by them. The Skins offense is a mess and should have problems scoring vs the Fired up Panthers defense that has played pretty well thus far. The Skins defense is very solid this year so I really see scoring a problem on both sides. I see less than 30 points here.
4 UNIT PLAYS
SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over Atlanta
The niners defense has been strong this year as they are 6th overall and 3rd vs the run. Falcons love to run the ball but are just 23rd in that department this year. Niners are 28th in total offense, but their offensive YPP is an amazing 10.4 and they will be taking on the 30th ranked defense. Niners are just too much for atlanta too handle here and should win this one by 7+.
Indy -4 over TENNESSEE: Titans 31st ranked passing defense will take on Peyton and his top ranked passing offense. Nuff Said. This one will be over early.
3 UNIT PLAYS
(Power Angle Play)
Minnesota -10 over ST LOUIS
The vikes are on letdown alert or this play would be rated higher. Teams only need to be at 50% these days to take care of the Rams, so the letdown shouldn't be a problem anyway. Vikes by at leat 2 TD's here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- PLay against a home dog that was shutout on the road last week. Angle is 22-9 since 1988.
Minnesota/ Houston Over 50: No running in this one as both teams are in the bottom 29 of that department,, while both offenses are 9th or better in passing. A shootout in the desert.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Dallas/ Kansas City Under 42.5
CAROLINA -3.5 over Washington
Giants/ Raiders Under 38.5
1 UNIT PLAYS
Cincinnati +9 over BALTIMORE
Pats/ Denver Under 41.5
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals meet the Ravens in Baltimore Sunday afternoon in a key AFC Central division battle knowing Cincinnati is 10-0-1 ATS in games after meeting the Browns. In addition, the ravens are 1-10 ATS home in October off a loss when playing an opponent off a win. With QB Carson Palmer finally healthy again, look for the Bengals to improve to 6-1 ATS on the road off a road game here today.
Play on: Cincinnati
Vegas Experts
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Still not buying Denver's 4-0 start as two of the wins have come against Cleveland and Oakland, another was a miraculous last minute win over Cincinnati and last week they caught the Cowboys off a short week. New England is 25-5 SU and 21-7 ATS as road chalk of seven or less under Bill Belichick. Last year, they mauled the Broncos, 41-7. Teams with a .500 or better record off a SU win as a home dog are just 65-113 ATS since 1983, or 35.3%.
Play on: New England
Vernon Croy
Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +9
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Cowboys just lost a game that they should have won in Denver but mental mistakes cost them big time. I look for the Cowboys mental struggles to continue this week in Kansas City against a team that just faced perhaps the best NFL team in 2009. The Cowboys are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games and they are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games against a team with a losing record. The Cowboys are just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games as a favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and the Chiefs should have covered against the Giants last week if it wasn't for a couple of bad breaks. Take the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday.
Tony George
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee
Play: Colts -3.5
They say all things come around in the NFL, and I have banked on Tennessee the past couple of weeks only to find myself on the losing end. It is official, the Titans simply do have the horses this year to get it done. Losing Albert Hainsworth on defense totally disrupted their chemistry as evidenced by giving up 34, 24 and 37 points in the last 3 weeks on defense. Not a typical Jeff Fisher coached team by any stretch of the imgaination.
The Colts on the other hand are smoking hot with 13 straight regular season wins and Peyton Manning is on fire. His cast of recievers has changed, but as always, he makes any average WR better. His QB rating of 114 is one of the best in the NFL while his Titan counterpart Kerry Collins is back to his old form with paltry 68 rating with more interceptions than touchdowns. Bob Sanders is licking his chops about right now.
To add more misery for the Titans, they have injury issues at cornerback for this game asd well as linebacker issues, not a good sign of things to come when playing the high octane, highly productive Colts offense pounding out 29 points a game against a defense allowing 34 points a game.. The Colts defense in the last 3 games has given up only 16 ppg, and in a twist of fate for the Titans, they have allowed an average of 31.
Last year Indy came into Nashville and won 23-0 and while I think the offense of Tennessee will score some points here as they have shown some production on offense, they simply have shown no ability to stop anyone on the other side of the ball and will lose their 5th straight this Sunday.
John Ryan
Anaheim Ducks vs. New York Rangers
Play: Anaheim Ducks
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Anaheim as they face the NY Rangers in NHL action set to start at 5:00 EST. My NHL record is off to a mighty fine start entering Saturday night action sporting a 6-3 mark and making 6.03 by simply exploiting false favorites. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 145-140 for just 51% winners, BUT making a whopping 63.8 units. The average play on this system has been a dog of +140.5. Play against any team against the money line off a road win by 1 goal sporting a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This is analogous to playing Black Jack and winning 51% of your hands – which is quite reasonable – but getting paid $1.41 for every winning $1.00 hand played. That will never happen at any casino ever, but this system shows very real results. You can get more systems like this one each and every day for FREE by simply purchasing my plays.
Craig Trapp
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Play: New England Patriots -3
The PATS are back after two wins in a row against undefeated teams. Tom Brady was rusty the first couple games but since then he has recovered for two very good games. Denver has had two good wins and two wins verse bad teams. Neither the Cowboys nor the Bengals though are in the Patrtiots compnay. Denver defense has been keeping them in games by only allowing allowing an average of 6.5 pts per game. Don't expect that to continue as it was more about the bad offenses they were facing. The Patriot way always wins, and betting against the Pats at -3 would be suicide. Lay the wood here as the PATS will bring the Broncos back to reality. SCORE NE 27 - DEN 13
Rob Vinciletti
Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants
Play: New York Giants -15
The Giants are clicking on all cylinders so far this year. Today they get the 1-3 Oakland Raiders. The boys in blue qualify in a solid system that is 20-0 straight up and 15-4-1 ats. What we want to do is play on home favorites from -10.5 to -16 if they are off back to back wins and covers. Theses teams come home from their road success and do not skip a beat. As an added advantage they get an Oakland team that travels cross country to play in an early 1pm eastern game. This traveling situation has been troubling for West Coast teams through the years,especially those who are under .500. The Giants biggest concern here is the status of Qb Eli Manning. He is scheduled to make the start as of this writing. Oakland has major trouble on offense. They have scored 9 points over the last 2 weeks and are just 2-10 ats on the road after scoring 10 or less. Look for the Giants to coast here on Sunday.
Freddy Wills
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Patriots -2.5 (buy 1/2)
Snow today in Denver, but clear and 48 degrees tomorrow. Weather won't play a factor in tomorrows game and I like the Patriots for the third week in a row despite going west to play. Broncos are definitely better than many expected, but I still think they are over rated. Even with their win over the Cowboys I think all that proved was just how bad the Cowboys are. The Patriots on the other hand continue to progress and get better which I said last week when I had them as my POD. Brady's going to get better and better each week off his injury that's just the way it goes. Look for him to have a big game against the Broncos as Bellecheck will face his former coach tomorrow and that usually does not bode well for Bill's pupil. Should be an interesting game and if the Broncos can pull off a win I can see them winning 11 games in that division, but a loss will likely set them back to realistic expectations.
Bob Wingerter
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +9
If it weren’t for a fluke, tipped-pass that went for a late touchdown, the Bengals would be unbeaten. Unlike Denver, though, the Bengals’ record isn’t a fluke. Cincinnati has a very talented defense with just about every position manned by a high draft choice. The Ravens are strong, too. This key division showdown should be a close battle. The line is inflated.The Ravens’ first two home games were against Kansas City and Cleveland, two teams that have yet to win a game in eight tries. Baltimore’s weakness is its cornerbacks are not nearly as good as in previous seasons. Carson Palmer can attack them. He has a big weapon with Chad Ochocinco.The Ravens haven’t allowed a running back to gain 100 yards against them in an NFLhigh 39 straight games. Cedric Benson probably won’t end that streak, but he’s emerged as a credible back that the Ravens can’t ignore in order to blitz all out against Palmer.The Bengals have showed their heart, desire and improvement upsetting Green Bay as a similarly-priced road ‘dog and then coming from behind to edge Pittsburgh. Cincinnati did struggle with the Browns last week, but it was an obvious flat spot in between Pittsburgh and this huge matchup.
Tom Freese
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Under
San Francisco is 7-2 UNDER their last 9 games and they are 6-1 UNDER after gaining less than 250 yards in their last game. The 49'ers are 3-1-1 UNDER after allowing less than 15 points in their last and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games vs. the Falcons. Atlanta is 38-15-1 UNDER their last 54 road games and they are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 October games. The Falcons are 6-0 UNDER after allowing over 250 yards passing in their last game and they are 5-2 UNDER vs. a team with a winning home record. PLAY ON 'UNDER'