Scott Spreitzer
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Minnesota Twins backed their way into the postseason, and they're about ready to be shown the door in three games. The game-two loss in extra-innings two nights ago has likely taken the steam out of this team. Tonight, Carl Pavano takes the bump along with his 5.10 ERA and .294 BAA. Pavano actually pitched pretty well in two starts against the Yanks earlier this season. But that was with a different team (Cleveland) and he hasn't seen them since May. The Yankees are getting all of the clutch hits right now and A-Rod can't be stopped. The Yankees will counter with playoff-vet Andy Pettitte, who has performed much better on the road this season than at home. He owns strong lifetime numbers against the Twins, including a 3.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 12 starts at the Metrodome. The Twins bats have been held in check through the first two games of this series and I expect Pettitte to shut them down again. The Yanks are 27-9 against the AL Central this season, and they take care of business when they're supposed to, going 35-10 as a big fave in a range that includes today's price. Look for New York to wrap-up the series on Sunday without missing a beat. I'm laying the price with the Yankees.
MATT FARGO
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
PICK: Denver Broncos +3.5
When is Denver going to get some respect? Maybe never as neither the public nor the linesmakers are giving this team any credibility for being 4-0 to start the season. The Broncos are far from a polished undefeated team but it comes down to wins and losses and they have conquered the former even when they are not supposed to. The public is all over the Patriots which is no surprise at all but the line has moved the opposite direction. As of midweek, 83 percent of the marketplace has placed wagers on the Patriots in the close to 10,000 tickets and we have seen the line go down to a field goal. This midweek movement is not uncommon and we will more than likely see this line go up as we approach gametime so waiting on the Broncos is advisable. New England has now covered two straight games so the public bandwagon is hopping back on board which at this point may not be a wise move. With that comes overvalued lines and you’d be mistaken if you thought they weren’t overvalued here. The Broncos defense has had an incredible turnaround from last season. They allowed 374.6 ypg and 28.0 ppg in 2008 which were 29th and 30th in the league respectively. In the first four games of 2009, Denver has allowed 239.8 ypg and 6.5 ppg, 2nd and 1st in the NFL respectively. The Broncos have faced Oakland and Cleveland who certainly are not good on offense but they have also squared off against Cincinnati and Dallas, two very good offenses and have yielded a total of just 17 points. The Patriots offense is coming around as they have scored 27 and 27 points in their last two games but both of those came at home. In their lone road game, they mustered just three field goals against the Jets. The New England offensive line is considered a strength as Tom Brady has been sacked only four times but this is the biggest challenge yet as the Broncos are second in the NFL with 15 sacks. On the other side the Patriots have just eight sacks while Denver has given up only six on the season. The Patriots defensive line has lost a lot and it will be in for a challenge here as well. Broncos new head coach Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for New England from 2006 to 2008 so he definitely has an idea of what the Patriots are going to be bringing. Obviously, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is going to add some wrinkles but if there is one coach who can prepare like no other against New England, it is McDaniels. How about Kyle Orton? Before the season started, everyone was talking about the steal the Bears got in the deal that sent Jay Cutler to Chicago but Orton is more than holding his own. He is the only full time starter to have not thrown an interception ands he is 17-2 at home as a starter for his NFL career for the best winning percentage by a quarterback since the 1970 merger. Denver also falls into a very solid situation that shows how the value is on our side. Play on home teams that are coming off a win as an underdog in a game involving two teams that have a winning percentage greater than .750. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +9.0 ppg. The Broncos are Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog which is strong toward that situation as well. 3* Denver Broncos
Scott Rickenbach
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
PICK: Philadelphia Eagles -15
Whatever happened to parity in the NFL? So far this season it continues to be a picture of the “rich getting richer” while the downtrodden teams continue to get hammered on a weekly basis. Yes, the Buccaneers did cover last week but that was at Washington and the Redskins are certainly a work in progress. Also, Washington hasn’t beaten anybody by more than eight points since head coach Jim Zorn took over. As for the Eagles, they enjoyed a bye last week and only have Oakland on deck. In other words, their full focus has been on Tampa Bay leading into this match-up and that’s bad news for the Bucs. Tampa only gained 229 yards last week and it was only the Skins turnover-plagued ways that prevented a blowout from ensuing. Overall, there have been a ton of blowouts this season in the NFL and the best versus worst disparity seems to be growing by a larger margin than ever.
The Buccaneers are one of six winless teams (yes, 20% of the league’s teams are winless after 4 weeks!) and Tampa Bay has been outscored by an average margin of over 13 points per game. We know this is a big spread for the Eagles to cover here but their two wins have come by an average margin of 24 points per game. It’s also still “payback time” for the Eagles against the Buccaneers as, including playoffs, Philadelphia has lost six of it’s last eight games against Tampa Bay. Much has changed since then – in terms of the dramatic downturn for the Bucs – and the Eagles will take advantage by blasting the Buccaneers in this one! Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb returned to the practice field Monday and is expected to start on Sunday. More good news for the Eagles as they can take advantage of a light schedule here (KC, bye week, TB, Oakland) as they gear up for the much bigger match-ups that are up ahead on their schedule. Note that, in the month of October, the Eagles are a perfect 9-0 ATS if they’re facing an opponent who has a losing record and is coming off of an away game. The Bucs, 0-4 this season, lost at Washington last week! The Eagles are also 8-1 when playing with extra rest and the bye week certainly serves them well here with the McNabb injury situation. Note that the Buccaneers came into this season just 1-5 as dogs of more than 7 points. Another blowout on the NFL schedule Sunday and this one is located in Philly! Consider a small play on the EAGLES Sunday.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Detroit Lions +12
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the home side: QB Matthew Stafford is officially day-to-day after suffering a right knee injury Sunday. The Lions would not confirm reports he suffered a dislocated or partially dislocated kneecap. When asked after whether he thought he could play against the Steelers, Staffords response was: "Not really into hypotheticals, but I think I could give it a go." Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson were hot in the first half last week, connecting five times for 119 yards. Stafford went 24-for-36 for 296 yards and a touchdown. Over the past three games, the Lions have outscored their opponents 44-28 in the first half, but have been outscored 61-12 in the second half, so I'm expecting a better all around effort as coach Jim Schwartz called his teams performance in the second half of last week's game vs. Chicago, "a complete disaster". On the other side of the field: After a couple of losses, the Steelers rebounded last week with a better performance against the Chargers; however, after shutting down San Diego for nearly three quarters, the pass defense had a meltdown and allowed 254 yards by Philip Rivers, who completed 21 of 36 with three TDs. The Steelers sacked him three times, but Rivers threw no INT's. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS its last five overall and is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Detroit always plays Pittsburgh tough and is an above average 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. the defending champs; when taking all of these factors into consideration I have to recommend a play on the large home dog!
LEE KOSTROSKI
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
PICK: Carolina Panthers -4
This is a great situational play on the small home favorite Panthers. Carolina is 0-3 after a 12-4 finish last season so they are desperate for a win. They are coming off a bye week after three tough games to start this season. After an abysmal start to the season, Jake Delhomme has finally started playing like a veteran NFL quarterback should. He has completed 64% of his passes for 528 yards with 2 TD’s after he threw for just 73 yards and had 4 interceptions against Philly in week one. We expect Delhomme and the rest of the Panthers to get their first win at home on Sunday. Go with the home team.
Washington broke the bank to bring in DT Albert Haynesworth to be a force on run defense, but they rank just 21st in the NFL after 4 weeks. Against the Giants, Rams, Lions and Buccaneers; the ‘Skins have allowed 513 rushing yards on a 4.3 YPC average (118 yards per game). As bad as their defense has been against below average teams, their offense has been even worse. Washington is averaging just 14 points per game and 325 total yards per game – both in the bottom half of NFL averages. They have one rushing touchdown and it was by their punter, Hunter Smith. RB Clinton Portis has been a disappointment, totaling 281 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC.
The Panthers offense ranks near the bottom on the NFL, but those numbers can be deceiving. Carolina has played three of the better run-defenses in the NFL and have yet to get RB’s DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart on a roll. Williams and Steward carried the Panthers to the playoffs last season. Expect them to have a big game against Washington’s weak run-defense.
Washington is 0-2 SU on the road this year. They lost atDetroit 14-19, ending the Lions 20 game losing streak. Watching their last game against the Buccaneers, it was apparent that the team has lost faith in their QB and their head coach. Head Coach Jim Zorn is at the center of ‘coaches on the hot seat’ discussions while QB Jason Campbell is struggling to run the offense. The Redskins haven’t played well all season and it would be very surprising to see them have a breakout performance at Carolina.
MTi Sports
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions
Prediction: Over
The Lions are 10-0 OU (+17.1 ppg) after a game in which they had at least 20 first downs and 9-0 OU (+13.6 ppg) when hosting a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date. The Steelers are 8-0 OU (+15.8 ppg) as a road favorite the week after at home in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. With these margins, the OVER is the way to go here.
Joseph D'Amico
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
PlaY: Denver Broncos +3+100
The Bronco's are 4-0 SU and ATS. Their "D" is yielding a mere 6.5 PPG and has racked up 15 sacks thus far. QB Kyle Orton has put up 5 TD's and 0 INT's. The Pat's one loss this year came on the road in New York. Their top ball carrier Fred Taylor is out with an ankle injury. It is tough enough playing in Mile High, let alone coming offf a battle with Baltimore and being without your top rusher. New England is 2-5 ATS their last 7 vs. Denver. The red-hot Bronco's get the cover here.
Alex Grosse
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Under 41½
This will be an exciting matchup featuring two of the AFC’s strongest opponents. I really like the UNDER in this one because both of these teams excel defensively. The Pats rank 9th in point s allowed (17.8) and 7th in yards (287.5). They are facing a Broncos’ offense that is averaging 19.8 points per game but have struggled to score against tougher defensive opponents. They scored a combined 50 points against Oakland and Cleveland but have only managed to score a combined 29 points against Cincinnati and Dallas. The Pats should not have a difficult time keeping Denver off the scoreboard. The Broncos statistically have the best defensive numbers in the league ranking 1st in points allowed (6.5) and 2nd in yards (239.8). Additionally, their defense has already forced 10 turnovers. A lot of critics believed that the Broncos were this successful mainly because their defense wasn’t really tested. Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan managed to raise a lot of eyebrows last week as Denver’s defense limited Dallas to only 10 points. Prior to that game the Cowboys were averaging 28.7 points per game. They will carry this momentum into Sunday’s matchup versus the Patriots. Expect this to be a hard fought defensive battle with neither team scoring more than 20 points.
Black Widow
1* on Kansas City Chiefs +9
The Kansas City Chiefs may be winless on the season, but they hung tough in a 27-16 loss to the New York Giants last week. It's clear at this point that the Dallas Cowboys are not the team everyone expected they'd be. Dallas already has 2 losses this season, both as favorites to the Giants and to the Broncos on the road last week. Dallas is certainly overrated right now. They don't have the same explosive offense because Tony Romo doesn't have any proven targets at wide receiver that can get the job done consistently. Now WR Roy Williams is questionable Sunday with a rib injury suffered in their loss to the Broncos, and even if he goes he won't be effective. Williams only has 10 catches for 196 yards this season, averaging less than 50 yards/game. The Cowboys are also suffering key injuries on defense. Starting SS Gerald Sensebaugh is out with a thumb injury, and NT Jeremiah Ratliff is questionable with a back injury. Not to mention C Andre Gurode is questionable with a knee injury on offense, and he's perhaps the Cowboys' most important offensive lineman having to make all the calls. Dallas is in no shape to go out and beat the Chiefs by double-digits on the road Sunday. The Cowboys are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games overall. Dallas is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The books are sleeping on Kansas City this week and giving the Cowboys too much respect. We'll take advantage. Take the Chiefs and the points.
Jeff Hochman
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Over 42
Both teams are moving the ball through the air at will, while having problems at stopping the pass. Cincinnati is ranked 25th and Baltimore is ranked #22 in pass defense. These teams are ranked in the Top 10 in starting field position from kick-offs and punt returns. That helps put points on the board quickly. The Ravens are not exactly an under play like they have been in year's past. In fact they are 24-14 O/U in their last 38 games. The Over is 16-6 in all Baltimore Ravens' games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.
John Martin
1 Unit on Arizona Cardinals -5
Arizona has had a bye week to get ready for the Houston Texans Sunday and to get back on track this season. The Cardinals are uncharacteristically 0-2 at home this year with losses to the 49ers and Colts, teams that have combined to go 7-1 this season. So they will welcome this inconsistent Houston team to town Sunday in what will result in a Cardinals' blowout. Arizona is 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 17-6 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992. Conversely, Houston is 6-17 ATS off a home win since 1992. The Cardinals are the better team all around with a better defense, and a better offense that is averaging 274 passing yards/game. They have also played the tougher schedule, and with Arizona coming off a bye week look for them to come out sharp and hungry at home. There's no way they lose 3 straight at home to start the season. Cash in with the Cardinals as the favorite.
Sal Michaels
Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Washington Redskins +4
A match-up of two NFC conference teams with one looking to go to 3-2 while the other is still searching for their first win of the season. Washington has not impressed last two weeks despite winning last week. They lost to Detroit two Sunday's ago and only beat a dismal Tampa Bay team by 3 points last weekend. On the flip side, Carolina is coming off their bye week with an abysmal 0-3 record. Carolina has continued to underperform as Jake Delhomme continues to force bad throws leading to turnovers. I do not see either of these teams fighting for playoff aspirations but for today, I like Washington getting the points as I do not see Carolina improving until they make a QB move where Delhomme is not the guy anymore.
EZWINNERS
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Play: Houston Texans +5.5
The Cardinals seem to be suffering from the after effects that most Super Bowl losers experience. Arizona has already lost two home games this season and they are facing a very explosive Houston Texans team that will give them their best shot. These two teams are very similar in that they both have explosive offense and questionable defenses. Houston has shown that they are at their best in the role of the underdog over the last two seasons and the Texans should do so again here.
Hentai Sports
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction : Arizona Cardinals -5
Arizona has had a bye week to get ready for the Houston Texans Sunday and to get back on track this season. The Cardinals are uncharacteristically 0-2 at home this year with losses to the 49ers and Colts, teams that have combined to go 7-1 this season. So they will welcome this inconsistent Houston team to town Sunday in what will result in a Cardinals’ blowout. Arizona is 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams – allowing 350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 17-6 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992. Conversely, Houston is 6-17 ATS off a home win since 1992. The Cardinals are the better team all around with a better defense, and a better offense that is averaging 274 passing yards/game. They have also played the tougher schedule, and with Arizona coming off a bye week look for them to come out sharp and hungry at home. There’s no way they lose 3 straight at home to start the season.
Tony Mathews
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions
Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5
The Detroit Lions will have a hard time scoring today. Now that QB Stafford is hurt, even if he does play he will be less then 100 percent. And if QB Stafford is unable to play or performs poorly, they will be forced to go with an inconsistent QB Culpepper. Regardless of whom the Lions chose to go with as QB, they will struggle as their O-Line is going to get demolished by the Steelers front seven.
On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Steelers should be able to score many points today (the Steelers have a very consistent offense). In fact, they have averaged almost 300 yards through the air this season and this week they go up against a defense that has allowed on average 33.5 points per game. QB Roethlisberger is 3rd in the league in passing and it's safe to say his numbers will improve this week. To say the least, the Steelers should be able to move the ball with ease against this poor Lions defense.
This game means more to the Pittsburgh Steelers then most people think. In fact, the Pittsburgh Steelers know they have to get wins in division games like this, as their division is now a 3 team race. So don't expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to overlook this poor Detroit Lions team.
Take the Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5