Jimmy the Moose
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants
Two teams going in opposite directions meet-up in New York in week 5. The Raiders have been rebuilding for several season's now and the results aren't showing. Too much incompetence surrounds this organization and that's why they're headed to another disappointing season. The Giants on the other hand have looked solid and another Super Bowl trip is not out of the question.
In week one the Raiders played the Chargers tough and in week 2 the narrowly beat the Chiefs then in week's three and four the real Raiders showed up and lost big. Oakland is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS but this is a very bad team heading south very fast. The Raiders are averaging a pathetic 10.5 PPG while the D is allowing 21.5 per contest. Their QB JaMarcus Russell is a horrible QB and the Raiders look very dumb wasting the first overall pick on him. He may develop into a good QB but up to now he looks like a major bust. His QB rating after four weeks is 42.4 and without anyone pushing him he'll continue to take the field week in and week out.
The New York Giants have jumped out of the gate and are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS and they are doing it with ease. Eli Manning doesn't miss Plax at all and his WR's Steve Smith and Mario Manningham have been great early in the season. The Giants are averaging 26.8 PPG and their D is allowing an average of 16 per game. If Manning takes the field in this one he won't be 100% but they Giants will run all over the Raiders and will easily win this one even if David Carr is behind center. The Giants are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games played in October.
New York has the significant edge in all major categories in this one and they'll easily show how much better than the Raiders they are in this one. Look for the Giants to easily win this game.
Play on the New York Giants -
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Minnesota (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at St. Louis (0-4, 1-3 ATS)
In a battle of the haves and have-nots, Brett Favre and the unbeaten Vikings head down to the Edward Jones Dome to take on the winless and hapless Rams.
Minnesota dropped archrival Green Bay 30-23 Monday night as a 4½-point home favorite, with Favre leading the way against his former team. The QB, who turns 40 this weekend, finished 24 of 31 for 271 yards and three TDs with no INTs or fumbles, and he wasn’t sacked after being brought down nine times over the first three weeks. The Vikings’ defense also forced a pair of turnovers, got the ball on downs after a key goal-line stand and they sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times.
St. Louis got drubbed at San Francisco 35-0 as a healthy 9½-point underdog, posting its 14th consecutive loss (5-9 ATS). QB Kyle Boller, starting for the injured Marc Bulger (shoulder), passed for just 108 yards, with one INT returned for a TD, and the Rams committed two fumbles that were also recovered for touchdowns. St. Louis failed to force a turnover and finished with just 177 total yards.
Bulger is doubtful to return this week.
These two squads have met four times in meaningful games since 2000, with St. Louis going 3-1 SU and ATS, most recently posting a 41-21 rout as a 2½-point road chalk in December 2006. In this rivalry, the favorite is on a 5-0 ATS run, the home team is on 5-1 ATS roll, and the Rams are 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes in St. Louis.
The Vikings are on ATS skids of 2-7 after a spread-cover, 4-11 after a SU win and 4-9 against the NFC, and they are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after facing Green Bay, but they’ve cashed in four of their last five road games. The Rams sport nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 7-16 overall, 5-14 against winning teams, 6-16 at home, 23-49-1 after a pointspread setback and 5-10-1 as a pup of nine points or more.
The over for Minnesota is 7-3-1 in its last 11 on the road, but the under is on a 34-16-1 run with the Vikings coming off a spread-cover. The under for St. Louis is on streaks of 7-2-1 overall (3-1 this year), 4-1-1 at home, 6-2-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last six meetings overall and four straight at the Edward Jones Dome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
Dallas (2-2 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (0-4 SU and ATS)
The inconsistent Cowboys remain on the road for a second straight week against an AFC West squad, traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to face the winless Chiefs.
Dallas lost to Denver 17-10 Sunday as a one-point road chalk, failing to score in the last three quarters, including two shots from inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds. QB Tony Romo (25 of 42, 255 yards, 0 TDs) had a critical interception in the red zone and also lost one of his two fumbles, and the Cowboys fell despite a six-minute edge in time of possession.
Kansas City lost to the Giants 27-16 Sunday as a heavy nine-point home pup, the squad’s eighth consecutive loss (2-6 ATS) dating to the end of last November. QB Matt Cassel threw for two TDs, but those came long after the outcome was decided, as New York led 27-3 in the fourth quarter. Even with the TDs, Cassel was 15 of 32 for just 127 yards, getting sacked five times, and the Chiefs finished with 193 total yards while allowing 429.
These teams have met just once this decade in a meaningful game, with Dallas winning 31-28 and pushing as a three-point home favorite in December 2005.
The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight roadies and 1-4 ATS in their last five October starts, but they remain on positive pointspread swings of 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 after a non-cover, 7-3 as a favorite and 6-2 as a road chalk of 3½ to 10 points. The Pokes are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games prior to the bye week.
The Chiefs are 2-18 SU (8-12 ATS) in their last 20 games, and they also carry ATS slides of 0-6 overall, 0-6 after a SU loss, 0-5 after a pointspread setback, 3-12 at home and 1-4 as a home ‘dog.
Dallas is on “over” runs of 14-6-2 as a road favorite, 6-1 giving 3½ to 10 points and 10-4 in October, and the over for Kansas City is on rolls of 20-8-1 in October, 6-2-1 at home, 4-1-1 with the Chiefs catching points and 3-0-1 with the Chiefs installed as a home ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
Washington (2-2, 1-3 ATS) at Carolina (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Panthers, who won the NFC South last year, once again try for their first win of the 2009 campaign when they host the Redskins at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina had its bye last week after suffering a 21-7 Monday night loss at Dallas as a nine-point underdog on Sept. 28, falling to 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games dating to the end of 2008 (playoffs included). QB Jake Delhomme (22 of 33, 220 yards, 2 TDs) continued to be plagued by turnovers, throwing two INTs and losing a fumble to run his season giveaway total to nine (7 INTs, 2 fumbles). The Panthers, who led 7-0 at the half before getting outscored 21-0 the reast of the way, also gave up a whopping 212 rushing yards.
Washington escaped with a 16-13 home win over Tampa Bay on Sunday, but fell far short of covering the 9½-point spread. QB Jason Campbell (12 of 22, 170 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) had two INTs and a lost fumble in the first half alone, but he led a comeback from a 10-0 halftime deficit, throwing a pair of TDs in a 16-point third quarter.
Washington is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four meetings with Carolina, most recently prevailing 17-13 as a four-point home ‘dog in November 2006. The underdog has cashed in eight straight clashes, with the road team going 6-2 ATS in those eight contests.
The Panthers have dropped four straight ATS decisions, but they are otherwise on positive ATS runs of 9-3-1 giving points, 8-4 at home and 8-3 following a SU loss. The Redskins sport negative ATS streaks of 1-8-3 overall, 6-17-4 against losing teams, 3-8-1 in October and a 1-4-1 on the road. Washington is also on an 8-16-3 ATS purge in non-division games.
The over is 8-3 in Carolina’s last 11 games and 9-2 in its last 11 against NFC foes, but the under for the Panthers is on stretches of 12-5 at home, 6-1 in October and 16-7 with Carolina as a home chalk. For Washington, the under is on tears of 19-7-1 overall (3-1 this year), 7-1-1 against losing teams, 9-2-1 against the NFC and 8-3-1 coming off the bye. Finally, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four clashes in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tampa Bay (0-4, 1-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Eagles, coming off a bye and expected to have Donovan McNabb back at the controls, take on the winless Buccaneers at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia ripped Kansas City 34-14 laying nine points at home two Sundays ago, taking a 24-7 halftime lead and coasting from there. Backup QB Kevin Kolb (24 of 34, 327 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid, while wideout DeSean Jackson (6 catches, 149 yards, 1 TD) and tight end Brent Celek (8 catches, 104 yards, 1 TD) both cracked 100 yards receiving. The Eagles rolled up 420 total yards while allowing just 196.
Tampa Bay fell at Washington 16-13 Sunday, blowing a 10-0 halftime lead in being dealt its eighth straight loss (2-6 ATS), but still covering the 9½-point spread. New starting QB Josh Johnson didn’t do much, totaling just 106 yards passing on a 13-for-22 effort, with one TD and one INT, and the Buccaneers’ anemic offense managed just 229 total yards.
Tampa Bay has won and covered the last three clashes in this rivalry, including a 23-21 home victory getting six points in October 2006. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Eagles are on several ATS rolls, including 8-3 overall, 12-3 after a bye week, 9-4 against the NFC, 5-1 following the bye and 4-1 at home. The Bucs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six when catching more than 10 points, but they are otherwise on pointspread dives of 1-5 overall, 1-5 after a SU loss and 2-5 from the underdog role.
The over for Philadelphia is on runs of 4-0 overall and 5-0-1 at the Linc, but the under is on a 16-2 spree with the Eagles coming off a bye week and is 23-9-4 in Philly’s last 36 as a home chalk. The over has hit in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 14 road tilts, but the under for the Bucs is on streaks of 7-1 against winning teams and 8-3 against the NFC. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Oakland (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (4-0, 3-1 ATS)
The unbeaten Giants, who spent the last three weeks on the road, finally return to the Meadowlands to take on the offensively inept Raiders.
New York rolled past Kansas City in Week 4, taking a 27-3 lead into the fourth quarter of a 27-16 victory as a nine-point road chalk Sunday. QB Eli Manning (20 of 34, 292 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid game before leaving in the fourth quarter with a foot injury, while RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 156 rushing yards. The Giants rolled up 429 total yards and allowed just 193, with the defense recording five sacks.
Manning missed some practice time this week but he is listed as probable for this game.
Oakland got another dismal offensive effort in a 29-6 road loss to Houston as a nine-point underdog. Under-performing QB JaMarcus Russell completed just 12 of 33 passes for 128 yards, and the Raiders finished with just 165 total yards, with Houston nearly doubling that total at 329 total yards. Oakland also lost all three of its fumbles and had a time-of-possession deficit of more than eight minutes.
New York and Oakland have met just twice this decade, with each team going 1-1 SU and ATS and the road team winning and covering each time. Most recently, New York won 30-21 giving 7½ points on the road to close out the 2005 regular season.
The Giants are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 36-18-2 overall, 17-4-1 in October, 8-3 laying points, 23-7 after a SU win and 22-7 following a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Raiders are on ATS plunges of 20-42-1 coming off an ATS loss, 10-21 in non-division road games and 4-9 catching double digits.
The under for New York is on upticks of 5-1 with the Giants giving more than 10 points, 4-1-1 following a SU win and 5-0-1 after a spread-cover, and the under for Oakland is on rolls of 9-3-1 overall, 9-1 in October, 4-1-1 on the road (all as a pup) and 39-15-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK and UNDER
Cleveland (0-4, 1-3 ATS) at Buffalo (1-3, 2-2 ATS)
The Browns, still winless under Eric Mangini and now without their top wideout, travel to upstate New York to take on the Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Cleveland’s 10th straight defeat last week was a heartbreaking one, as it fell 23-20 to Cincinnati in overtime, with the Bengals kicking the winning field goal with less than two minutes to go in the extra session. Although the Browns cashed as a six-point home ‘dog, they’re still just 1-8-1 ATS during their losing streak. QB Derek Anderson, back in the starting role, went 26 of 48 for 269 yards with one TD and one INT, and RB Jerome Harrison (29 carries, 121 yards) and WR Mohamed Massaquoi (8 catches, 148 yards) had big days. However, Harrison lost a fumble that was returned 75 yards for a second-quarter TD.
Star wideout Braylon Edwards didn’t have a single catch for Cleveland last week, and after getting into a scrap at a nightclub earlier this week, he was traded to the Jets.
Buffalo got mauled in Miami 38-10 as a one-point pup Sunday, trailing 31-3 in the fourth quarter before finally finding the end zone on Trent Edwards’ lone TD pass of the day. Edwards finished 14 of 26 for 192 yards, and he threw three INTs, including one that was returned for a score. The Bills forced no turnovers, gave up a whopping 250 rushing yards and lost the time-of-possession battle by 14 minutes.
Cleveland is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meaningful meetings this decade with Buffalo, including a 29-27 road upset last November as a 4½-point pup – the Browns’ last SU victory.
The Browns have covered in their last six October games and are on a 6-1-1 ATS run as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points, but they’re also mired in ATS funks of 0-5 on the highway, 1-7-1 after a SU loss and 1-6-1 as an underdog. The Bills, meanwhile, are on ATS dives of 1-6 at home and 1-4 as a home chalk, though they sport positive pointspread streaks of 25-8-1 against losing teams and 4-1 following a SU loss.
Cleveland is on “under” runs of 17-8-1 overall, 18-7-2 against losing teams and 3-0-1 on the road, while the over for Buffalo is on surges of 5-2 overall (3-1 this year), 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-1 at Ralph Wilson and 4-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cincinnati (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Baltimore (3-1 SU and ATS)
The surprising Bengals travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the rival Ravens in a battle for first place in the AFC North.
Cincinnati squeaked past Cleveland 23-20 in overtime Sunday, but failed to cover as a six-point road favorite. The Bengals blew a 14-0 lead, tied it late in the fourth quarter on a short TD toss from Carson Palmer to Chad Ochocinco, had the extra point blocked, then won on Shayne Graham’s 31-yard FG in the waning seconds of OT. Palmer (23 of 44, 230 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a decent effort in an evenly played game, as Cincy totaled 375 yards and allowed 395.
Baltimore nearly knocked off host New England on Sunday, coming up just short on its last-minute drive in a 27-21 loss as a one-point pup, only its second SU and ATS loss in its last nine games. QB Joe Flacco (27 of 47, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was solid again, though his INT came in the red zone, and RB Ray Rice ripped off 103 yards on just 11 carries. The Ravens outgained the Pats 363-319 but trailed in time of possession by 10 minutes.
Baltimore won and covered in both meetings with Cincinnati last year, following a 6-1 SU and ATS run by the Bengals in this rivalry. The Ravens are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 clashes at M&T Bank Stadium, the favorite is on a 6-2 ATS run, and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests.
The Bengals are on ATS rolls of 5-2 overall and 4-0 as a pup, but they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 2-6 in division play, 4-11 against the AFC, 7-18-2 in October and 2-5 on the road. Conversely, the Ravens are on pointspread tears of 18-6 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 giving points, 11-3 against the AFC, 7-2 inside the division and 39-15-1 as a home chalk.
The over is 5-1 in Cincinnati’s last six division contests, 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five overall and 11-4-1 in the Ravens’ last 15 AFC North games. However, the under is on runs of 13-6-1 for Cincy in conference play, 5-1 with Baltimore favored and 4-1 for the Ravens at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh (2-2, 1-3 ATS) at Detroit (1-3 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers aim to get back above .500 with a trip to Ford Field to face the ever-struggling Lions.
Pittsburgh ran out to a 28-0 lead over San Diego on Sunday night, then gave nearly all of it away before finishing off a 38-28 home win as a 5½-point chalk, ending a two-game SU and ATS hiccup. QB Ben Roethlisberger (26 of 33, 333 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient, and RB Rashard Mendenhall (29 carries, 165 yards, 2 TDs) was career night in subbing for Willie Parker (turf toe). The Steelers racked up 497 total yards, nearly doubling the Chargers’ 251.
Detroit had its winning streak immediately halted at one, tumbling to Chicago 48-24 as a 9½ -point road underdog last Sunday and falling to 1-20 SU (8-13 ATS) in its last 21 starts. The Lions forged a 21-21 halftime tie, then got blown away in the second half. Rookie Matthew Stafford (24 of 36, 296 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a strong effort before exiting with a partially dislocated right kneecap, and the Lions significantly outgained the Bear, by a 398-276 total.
Stafford is listed as doubtful this week and veteran QB Daunte Culpepper is likely to start.
These teams have just two regular-season meetings this decade, with Pittsburgh going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, most recently rolling 35-21 to cap the 2005 regular season but failing to cash as a 17-point home chalk.
The Steelers are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 October starts, but their ATS streaks trend down from there, including 1-4 overall, 0-4 on the road, 1-4 giving points and 3-9 laying more than 10 points. The Lions remain a dismal 2-26 SU and 9-19 ATS in their last 28 outings, dating to the middle of the 2007 campaign, and they are on additional ATS slides of 2-9 at home and 2-8 as a home pup. But they’re still 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when catching more than 10 points and 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a pointspread setback.
The over for Pittsburgh is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-2 with the Steelers favored and 4-1 with Mike Tomlin’s troops as a road chalk, and the over for Detroit is on stretches of 18-7-1 overall, 10-4-1 with the Lions a ‘dog and 18-5 with the Lions getting more than 10 points. However, the under has hit in Detroit’s last four at Ford Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Atlanta (2-1 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (3-1, 4-0 ATS)
The improving 49ers remain at home for a second straight week when they take on the Falcons, who return from their bye and make the cross-country trek to Candlestick Park.
San Francisco is coming off a 35-0 pounding of hapless St. Louis on Sunday, easily cashing as a heavy 9½-point favorite. QB Shaun Hill (14 of 24, 152 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led an offense that netted just 228 total yards, but the defense held the Rams to a meager 177 and had two fumble-return TDs along with an INT return for a score, turning a 7-0 halftime lead into a second-half blowout.
Atlanta took a week off after its 26-10 loss at New England as a 4½-point pup. QB Matt Ryan (17 of 28, 199 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) helped the Falcons to 10 first-half points, but Atlanta got outscored 13-0 in the second half and finished with just 255 total yards, while giving up 455 to the Pats, including 168 on the ground.
Atlanta edged San Francisco 20-16 giving 3½ points at home in November 2007, slowing a 3-1 ATS run by the Niners in this rivalry. San Fran is 6-2 ATS in the last eight Candlestick clashes between these former NFC West rivals.
The 49ers have covered in just one of their last seven October games (last week), but otherwise they are on positive ATS runs of 8-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home, 5-0-1 against winning teams, 4-0-1 after a SU win and 5-1 after a spread-cover. Hill is also 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS as the starter at home.
The Falcons are on ATS upticks of 7-1 after a SU loss, 7-2 after a non-cover and 6-2 in October, but they’ve failed to cover in four straight games as a road pup of three points or less and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-division affairs after a bye.
San Francisco is on a 7-2 “under” run, and Atlanta is on “under” streaks of 5-1 in October, 38-15-1 on the highway and 14-6 as a road pup, and in this rivalry, the under is on stretches of 4-1 overall and 4-0 at Candlestick.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER
New England (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Denver (4-0 SU and ATS)
The surprising Broncos put their unbeaten record on the line at Invesco Field in a clash with the Patriots.
Denver made a late defensive stand to pull out a 17-10 home victory over Dallas on Sunday as a one-point home ‘dog and has now given up just 26 points on the season (6.5 ppg). QB Kyle Orton (20 of 29, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) still hasn’t thrown a pick this season, and surly WR Brandon Marshall broke through with a 51-yard game-winning TD catch prior to Dallas’ final drive. The defense gave up no points after the first quarter, with Champ Bailey picking off Tony Romo in the red zone on one possession and breaking up the final two passes of the game in the end zone.
New England held off Baltimore 27-21 Sunday as a one-point home chalk, turning back the Ravens inside the 15-yard line in the final minute. QB Tom Brady (21 of 32, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was solid, and the Pats won despite getting outgained 363-319, with the defense forcing two turnovers and twice stopping Baltimore on key fourth-down plays, including on the final drive.
New England pummeled Denver 41-7 last October laying three points at home, ending a 3-0 SU and ATS run by the Broncos in this rivalry. Denver is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Broncos, one of the worst teams in the league against the oddsmakers the past few years, have cashed in all four games this year and are on further ATS runs of 7-1-1 as a home pup, 4-0 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. However, they still shoulder negative ATS streaks of 7-19-1 at Invesco, 6-13 against winning teams and 10-21-1 in AFC contests.
The Patriots are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 following a pointspread win and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 coming off a SU victory, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 20-6-1 in October, 36-16-1 on the highway, 17-6 as a road chalk and 23-10 in non-division roadies.
The under has hit in all four of Denver’s games this year and is on further tears for the Broncs of 8-3 overall, 9-0 after a SU win, 7-0 after a spread-cover and 7-1 at home. On the flip side, the over for New England is on rolls of 8-3 overall (all as a favorite), 5-0-1 with the Pats laying three points or less and 7-3 with Bill Belichick’s troops favored on the road. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 clashes overall and 6-1 in the last seven in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Houston (2-2 SU and ATS) at Arizona (1-2 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to get their 2009 campaign back on track when they play host to the Texans at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Arizona had its bye last week after getting blasted by Indianapolis 31-10 as a three-point favorite on its home field two Sundays ago. QB Kurt Warner racked up 352 passing yards, but he needed 52 passes to get there, completing 30, with just one TD against two INTs. The Cards had no running game (24 yards) and finished with 323 total yards, while giving up a whopping 505, including 379 passing yards and four TDs to Peyton Manning.
Houston routed putrid Oakland 29-6 Sunday laying nine points at home and has now alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last six games, dating to the final two outings of the 2008 season. QB Matt Schaub got a lot of mileage out of his 11 completions on 22 attempts, netting 224 yards and a TD, with one INT. The Texans also got a safety, followed immediately by a kick-return TD in the third quarter to cap the scoring, and they held the Raiders to just 165 total yards.
These teams have met just once in the regular season, with Houston taking a 30-19 home win as a three-point ‘dog in December 2005.
Despite their slow start, the Cardinals remain on ATS rolls of 6-2 overall, 4-0 in October, 9-4 giving points and 15-7 following a SU loss. In addition, Arizona is 10-4 ATS following the bye when it has lost prior to a week off. The Texans are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 October starts and 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road after a SU win, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 8-3 overall, 5-0 as a pup, 4-1 on the road and 5-2 against losing teams.
The over for Arizona is on tears of 36-16 overall, 17-4 in October and 12-3 at home, and the over for Houston is on streaks of 8-3 on the road, 16-6-1 with the Texans a ‘dog and 8-2 as a road pup. However, the Cards are on an 8-3 “under” run coming off the bye, and the total has stayed low in seven of the Texans’ last 10 games overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
Jacksonville (2-2 SU and ATS) at Seattle (1-3 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars, coming off a pair of upset wins, make the lengthy trip to the Pacific Northwest for a non-conference battle with the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
A week after topping Houston 31-24 as a four-point road underdog, Jacksonville ripped Tennessee 37-17 as a three-point home ‘dog last Sunday. QB David Garrard (27 of 37, 323 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was sterling in leading an offense that put up 442 yards with just one turnover, while the Jags’ defense forced two INTs and a fumble. Jacksonville finished with an eight-minute edge in time of possession.
Seattle got doubled up in a 34-17 road loss to Indianapolis as a healthy 10-point underdog for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Seneca Wallace (33 of 45, 257 yards, 1 TD) again filled in for Matt Hasselbeck (broken rib), losing a pair of fumbles and getting sacked five times, and the Seahawks trailed 34-3 before putting up two meaningless fourth-quarter TDs.
Hasselbeck is probable to return today.
Seattle is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings this decade with Jacksonville, though most recently, the Jags won 26-14 as a three-point home chalk in September 2005.
The Jaguars, despite solid efforts the past two weeks, remain on pointspread dives of 2-7 after a spread-cover, 2-6 after a SU win and 3-8 after an outright victory of more than 14 points, and they are on a 3-8 ATS purge outside the AFC South. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five at Qwest and 7-1 ATS in their last eight against AFC opponents, but they are in ATS funks of 1-4 overall and 15-35-1 in October.
The under is 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last five roadies and 5-2-1 in Seattle’s last eight at home. However, the over is on runs of 34-16-1 for Seattle in October, 10-4-2 for Jacksonville after a SU win and 8-3-1 for the Jags against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Indianapolis (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Tennessee (0-4, 1-3 ATS)
The reeling Titans, who just last season had the NFL’s best record, try again to grab their first win of the 2009 campaign when they face the AFC South rival Colts at LP Field.
Tennessee, which went 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in the 2008 regular season, got drummed by Jacksonville 37-17 Sunday as a three-point road chalk. The Titans trailed 30-3 in the third quarter, and QB Kerry Collins (29 of 48, 284 yards, 1 TD) threw a pair of INTs as Tennessee lost the turnover battle 3-1 and had an eight-minute time-of-possession deficit.
Indianapolis remained unbeaten in coasting to a 34-17 victory over Seattle on Sunday, giving up two meaningless late TDs after storming to a 34-3 lead. QB Peyton Manning (31 of 41, 353 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) led four TD drives of 78 yards or more as the Colts rolled up 431 total yards while allowing just 279. The Indy defense also forced a pair of fumbles from Seahawks QB Seneca Wallace.
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS (3-3 SU) in the last six clashes in this rivalry, covering five straight times before Indianapolis’ 23-0 rout as a three-point home ‘dog in the final week of the 2008 regular season, with both teams resting players for the postseason. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Titans are stuck in ATS ruts of 1-5 overall, 0-4 in division play, 0-4 after a SU loss and 1-5 against AFC foes, but they still hold positive ATS streaks of 7-1 as a home pup and 8-0 when catching 3½ to 10 points. The Colts are on pointspread surges of 5-1-1 on the highway, 5-1-1 against losing teams and 8-2 in October, but they’ve gone just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 division tilts (0-1 ATS in the division this year).
Indianapolis is on “over” runs of 4-0 against losing teams, 4-1 in October and 5-2 inside the division, and the over for Tennessee is on tears of 4-1 at home, 9-3-1 as a home ‘dog, 23-10-1 in October, 37-17-1 after a SU loss and 42-20-1 following an ATS setback. Conversely, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
MLB PLAYOFFS
NLDS
Philadelphia (1-1) at Colorado (1-1)
Having captured home-field advantage with a surprising Game 2 victory in Philadelphia, the Rockies now look to take control of this best-of-5 series when they return to frigid Coors Field for Game 3 after the game was postponed on Saturday due to inclement weather. Colorado’s Jason Hammel (2-0, 4.42 ERA) will make his first-ever postseason start, while the Phillies have changed starters and will now give the ball to lefty J.A. Happ (12-4, 2.93) instead of veteran Pedro Martinez..
After managing just a ninth-inning run in Wednesday’s 5-1 loss to the Phillies and Cliff Lee in Game 1, the Rockies came out swinging Thursday and got a two-run homer for catcher Yorvit Torrealba, six strong innings from starter Aaron Cook and just enough relief pitching to hold on for the 5-4 victory.
Philadelphia remains on hot streaks of 29-11 after an off day, 8-2 against the N.L. West, 15-7 after a defeat and 7-2 in the playoffs going back to last year’s World Series title run.
Colorado is on positive runs of 42-16 at home, 7-2 against the N.L. East, 16-5 at home against left-handed starters and 50-23 after a victory. They Rockies have also won four of their last five divisional playoff games (all against Philadelphia), but overall, they’ve still lost five of their last six in the postseason.
The Phillies are still 5-3 against the Rockies this season (2-1 in Colorado), and since getting swept by the Rockies in the 2007 NLDS, Philadelphia has won 10 of 13 in this rivalry (four of five at Coors Field).
Happ allowed just one team more than three earned runs in his final 10 regular-season starts. He finished 7-2 with a 1.99 ERA on the road, and in his final six outings as a visitor he allowed 10 earned runs in 37 1/3 innings of work. Happ’s only career start against the Rockies came on Aug. 5 when he threw a four-hit, complete-game shutout, striking out 10 and walking just two in a 7-0 home win. Happ also pitched to one batter in relief in Game 2 of this series, but took a line drive off the knee for a single and was talking out of the game.
With Happ starting, Philadelphia is on runs of 5-1 on the road, 4-0 overall, 5-0 on Sundays and 5-2 when he’s a favorite.
Hammel had a solid first season in Colorado, appearing in 34 games (30 starts). One of those relief appearances came Sunday at the Dodgers as he pitched two scoreless innings. The 27-year-old right-hander allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts, while surrendering just four runs each in the other two. He was consistent throughout the season, going 5-4 with a 4.43 ERA prior to the All-Star break and 5-4 with a 4.23 ERA in the second half.
Hammel went just 3-3 with a 5.73 ERA at Coors Field (compared with 7-5 with a 3.13 ERA on the road), but the Rockies won 11 of his 15 home starts, including 10 of the last 12. The Rockies went 4-1 in his last five starts as a favorite and 8-2 in his last 10 as a home chalk. Hammel’s only start against Philadelphia came on Aug. 9, and he pitched the Rockies to an 8-3 road win, allowing three runs on nine hits (no walks) in 6 2/3 innings.
For Philadelphia, the over is on runs of 10-2-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 5-1 on Saturday and 6-1-1 after a defeat. However, in the playoffs, the Phillies are on “under” streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 6-2 on the road and 6-1 in the divisional series. With Happ on the mound, they are on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 on the road and 19-7-1 overall.
Colorado carries “over” trends of 4-1 at home, 4-1 after an off day and 4-1-1 after a win.
Finally, the “over” has been the play in nine of 13 matchups between these teams since the beginning of last season, with the last five at Coors Field topping the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO and OVER
ALDS
L.A. Angels (2-0) at Boston (0-2)
The Red Sox return to Fenway Park and hand the ball to right-hander Clay Buchholz (7-4, 4.21 ERA) who will try to beat Angels’ lefty Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89) and keep Boston alive in this best-of-5 series, trailing 2-0 after dropping Games 1 and 2 in Southern California.
Los Angeles received outstanding pitching performances from John Lackey and Jered Weaver in the first two games, limiting the Red Sox to one run on eight hits while winning 5-0 on Thursday and 4-1 on Friday. The Angels have now won seven of the 11 meetings with Boston this season and seven of 10 in Beantown. One more victory for the Halos will end a string of three ALDS losses to the Red Sox since 2004 and four straight postseason series defeats since 1986.
The Angels come in to this one riding streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 against right-handed starters, 36-15 on Sunday, 48-21 after a win and 9-3 after an off-day. Meanwhile, Boston is on slides of 2-6 in playoff action, 2-5 against the A.L. West and 1-6 after a loss, but the BoSox are on positive streaks of 55-23 at home, 13-5 in home playoff games, 8-2 in ALDS games at home (all against L.A.), 44-15 following an off-day and 6-1 on Sunday.
Los Angeles is 4-1 in Kazmir’s last five outings and he is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last three starts. The young lefty made six starts in an Angels’ uniform after being acquired in late-August from Tampa Bay and he didn’t allow an opponent to score more than three runs in any of those outings.
With the Rays, Kazmir faced the Red Sox more than any other team, going 8-7 with a 3.59 ERA in 23 regular-season starts. At Fenway, Kazmir is 6-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 73 2/3 innings, including two starts this year with Tampa Bay in which he allowed a combined four runs over 11 innings as the Rays won twice, 14-5 and 7-2. Last October, Kazmir made two starts against Boston in the ALDS, with the Rays splitting the two games.
Buchholz has a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts, getting torched in his final two regular-season outings, allowing 13 runs in eight innings of work against the Indians and Blue Jays. Boston is just 4-10 in his last 14 starts against teams with winning records and 1-4 in his last five against A.L. West teams, but the Sox are on runs of 9-1 in his last 10 overall and 5-1 in his last six at home.
For his career, Buchholz is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three career starts against the Angels. He hasn’t faced them since July 2008 when the Angels got him twice for 14 combined runs (nine earned) in 11 innings, beating him once in Los Angeles and once in Boston.
The Angels have finished below the posted total in all six of Kazmir’s starts with the team and as a team, they are on “under” runs of 13-3 on the road, 25-7-1 overall, 21-6-1 following a win, 15-5-1 against winning teams, 10-1 on the road against right-handed starters, 5-0-2 in playoff road games and 3-0-1 in all playoff contests.
The Red Sox have topped the total in seven of Buchholz’s last 10 starts as a favorite and five of seven against A.L. West foes. As a team, Boston is on “over” runs of 8-2-2 in playoff home games, 10-2 as a favorite, 4-1 in the third game of a series and 8-2 at home against left-handed starters.
Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” is 5-1 in the last six overall and 3-1-1 in the last five at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
N.Y. Yankees (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2)
The Yankees send veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16 ERA) to the mound at the Metrodome in Minneapolis, trying to deliver the knockout blow to the Twins and starter Carl Pavano (14-12, 5.10). New York leads this best-of-5 ALDS 2-0 after holding serve at home in the first two games.
New York’s Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira became the latest postseason heroes in the Big Apple after Rodriguez delivered a two-run ninth-inning homer to tie the game at 3-3 and then Teixeira’s solo blast in the 11th inning gave the Yankees the 4-3 win, which came on the heels of a 7-2 rout in Game 1. New York is an impressive 9-0 against Minnesota this season, including 4-1 in the Metrodome dating to last season, and a whopping 49-16 in the last 65 clashes.
The Yankees have lost six consecutive road playoff games, but otherwise it’s a plethora of positive streaks for the Bronx Bombers, including 43-17 overall, 44-21 on Sundays, 43-16 against right-handed starters, 39-14 against A.L. Central teams, 68-31 in the third game of a series and 44-17 as a favorite. The Twins are just 16-38 in their last 54 against A.L. East teams and 5-17 in their last 22 playoff games, including 0-7 at home. However, they are on positive runs of 17-6 overall, 10-1 at home, 5-1 against southpaws and 37-14 at home against left-handed starters.
The Yankees lost three of Pettitte’s final four regular-season starts, including an Oct. 3 loss in Tampa as he gave up five runs (three earned) on six hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-3 defeat. Still, New York is on several positive runs with Pettitte on the hill, including 8-3 overall, 37-18 when he’s a road chalk, 20-8 against the A.L. Central and 6-1 when he’s a favorite anywhere. Also, Pettitte went 8-4 with a 3.71 ERA on the road this season.
In 19 career starts against the Twins, Pettitte is 9-5 with a 3.70 ERA in 131 1/3 innings, including two complete games, and he’s 5-4 with a 3.62 ERA in 12 career outings at the Metrodome (82 innings). He faced the Twins once this season giving up four runs in 6 2/3 innings back in May, winning 7-6. Finally, in 11 postseasons (10 with the Yankees), Pettitte is 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA.
Pavano was roughed up a bit at the end of the regular season, posting an 8.27 ERA in the final three games, giving up four runs or more in each of the last three after a streak of six straight where he held the opposition to three runs or less. Minnesota is 5-1 in Pavano’s last six outings and 4-1 the last five times he’s been an underdog.
Pavano, who made 26 starts in four injury-plagued seasons with the Yankees from 2005-08, has just four career starts against his former team, posting an 0-1 mark with a 4.76 ERA in 22 2/3 innings. He saw them twice this season as a member of the Indians, allowing a combined four runs on 11 hits in 13 1/3 innings, losing in New York, but winning in Cleveland. The right-hander has made just six career starts in the Metrodome, going 2-2 with a 4.19 ERA, and he went 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in eight playoff appearances (two starts) with the Marlins in their run to the 2003 World Series title.
It’s been nothing but “unders” with Pettitte on the hill for New York, including 53-24-2 overall, 44-20-1 as a favorite, 24-8-1 on the road, 19-6-1 in the third game of a series, 18-7-3 on Sundays, 4-0 after seven or more days of rest and 5-1 against the A.L. Central. As a team, the Yankees are on “under” streaks of 12-3-1 after a win, 7-2 in playoff road games, 7-2-1 overall, 7-1-1 as a favorite and 4-0-1 against A.L. Central squads.
The Twins have topped the total in six of their last nine overall and four straight at home, but they are on “under” runs of 10-4-2 as an underdog, 44-19-3 on Sundays, 20-6-2 against the A.L. East, 4-1 in playoff games and 5-1-1 as a home ‘dog.
Finally, in this series, the under has been the play in three of the last four, but the over is 5-2 in Pettitte’s last seven outings against Minnesota.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Game Time Sports Advisors
Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Dallas Cowboys -9
A absolute Must-Win for Wade Phillips bunch. Tony Romo must find a rhythem and get his head on straight. No better team to do it against then the poorous bunch of the KC secondary. Look for a healthy doce of running from Cowboys to open up the airways. Witten and Bennett will see a dozen or more balls come their way as Romo goes to his bread and butter tight-end sets. Cowboys get a much needed win and a boost to their confindence with a resounding win on the road. Cowboys 34-10
ALEX SMART
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
PICK: Denver Broncos +3.5
After the New England Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens last week, the pundits have now all squarely piled back onto their bandwagon. Despite of moving back up in my own personal power rankings, this Pats team is far from the dominating side it was in the early part of this decade and century. With that said, I'm betting on QB Tom Brady and company to have a tough time holding back a hard hitting take no prisoners Denver defense allowing just 6.5 PPG in 4 wins, and now playing with confidence in front of their own fans. Last week, the Broncos took out the Dallas Cowboys by a 10-7 count and a similar repeat performance is not out of the question, against a team in a letdown situation after a huge win. Final notes & Key Trends: The Patriots lost their last trip to Denver 27-13 in the divisional playoffs on Jan. 14, 2006. NFL Home teams like Denver with a.750 win % or better off an underdog win at home, in tilt involving another team with a .750 win % or better are 23-4 ATS L/27. Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on St. Louis Rams +11
This is a sandwich game for the Vikings coming off a highly emotional MNF win over the Packers last week and with a tough one against Baltimore on the horizon. There's no way the Vikings get up for this one the way they did last week, especially with a short week to prepare. Meanwhile, I expect to see one of St. Louis' best efforts of the season following an embarrassing 35-0 loss in San Francisco. The Rams were defeated 28-0 in Seattle in Week 1 and then bounced back to play the Redskins to a 9-7 game to earn an easy cover, and that game against Washington was on the road. Minnesota is the hands down better side but it doesn't have much incentive here while the Rams have a lot of incentive to get in the win column for the first time this season. Plus, Minnesota has had a tendency to play to the level of its opponent, going 0-7 ATS in its last 7 on the road versus teams who allow 27 of more points per game. The Vikings are actually losing in these spots by 5.4 ppg. I don't see Minnesota going down here, but I do see this one being much tighter than most expect. Take the points.
John Ryan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15½
My Ai Simulator has a 3* graded play on Tampa Bay as they travel to face the Philadelphia Eagles set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that Tampa Bay will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that ahs gone 50-21 ATS since 1983. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is a good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Now, here is a very simple system that reflects the parity that has dominating NFL play for yeas and years. The system has produced a solid 76-41 ATS mark for 65% winners since 2003. Play on road dogs or pick off a road loss. So, this system reflects poor play one week and in certain cases a complete polar opposite the next.
The fundamentals do show some advantages for TB in this game. Over the first 4 weeks defenses have lined 8 men in the box and simply played run since the now benched Leftwich had difficulty even making the simplest reads and executing pass plays. TB has 3 strong running backs and 2nd year QB Johnson has the arm strength to throw vertical routes with success. The line backer corp of the Eagles are a weak bunch and I strongly believe you will see Tampa pound the ball between the tackles. That in turn sets up easy and well protected play action pass opportunities. This game, believe it or not, will be a whole closer than the line shows. Take Tampa Bay.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Washington Redskins +4.5
Bottom Line: Carolina is 0-3 and I haven't seen anything from this team that would lead me to lay points with them here, especially with as well as Washington has played defensively. The Underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series and I fully expect this trend to continue. Both teams prefer to run the football, especially with the ups and downs both QB's have experienced. I expect the clock to keep moving with both teams grinding it out and for this one to go right down to the wire. It is also worth mentioning that Washington is 29-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. Take the points.
DUNKEL
Houston at Arizona
The Texans look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog. Houston is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2)
Game 401-402: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 135.006; St. Louis 122.071
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 37
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9 1/2); Under
Game 403-404: Dallas at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.240; Kansas City 126.336
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Over
Game 405-406: Washington at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.759; Carolina 129.160
Dunkel Line: Even; 33
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Under
Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.148; Philadelphia 145.382
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 22; 49
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 14 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-14 1/2); Over
Game 409-410: Oakland at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.808; NY Giants 140.927
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 16; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 14 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-14 1/2); Over
Game 411-412: Cleveland at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.990; Buffalo 125.276
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6); Over
Game 413-414: Cincinnati at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.347; Baltimore 142.959
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 14 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 8; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-8); Over
Game 415-416: Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.129; Detroit 122.765
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10 1/2); Over
Game 417-418: Atlanta at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 134.543; San Francisco 135.325
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Under
Game 419-420: New England at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New England 133.175; Denver 138.180
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5; 37
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under
Game 421-422: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.867; Arizona 132.561
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2); Over
Game 423-424: Jacksonville at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 134.276; Seattle 128.932
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); N/A
Game 425-426: Indianapolis at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.639; Tennessee 131.841
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3 1/2); Over
MLB
LA Angels at Boston
The Red Sox look to bounce back from their first two losses in the series and build on their 9-1 record in Clay Buchholz' last 10 starts. Boston is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140)
Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 16.408; Colorado (Hammel) 15.308
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Under
Game 909-910: LA Angels at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.672; Boston (Buchholz) 16.056
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140); Under
Game 911-912: NY Yankees at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.655; Minnesota (Pavano) 16.235
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+175); Over
NHL
Dallas at Vancouver
The Canucks look to take advantage of a Dallas team that is 3-8 in its last 11 road games. Vancouver is the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-170)
Game 51-52: Anaheim at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.812; NY Rangers 12.143
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+140); Over
Game 53-54: Dallas at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.488; Vancouver 12.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-170); Over
BIG AL
Philadelphia at Colorado
The Rockies came into this series with one immediate goal; to come away from Philadelphia with a 1-1 split against the defending World Series Champs. Mission accomplished. The unlikely story of the 2009 version of this franchise continues as Colorado returns home with a chance to close out the series at Coors Field. The good news coming into this critical third game is that they are going with perhaps their hottest starter since the All-Star break in former Tampa Bay Ray righthander Jason Hammel. Since the beginning of August, Hammel has a won-lost record of 5-2 and the Rockies have gone 8-4 in Hammel's last 12 starts, dating back to August 4. The bad news comes with Hammel's home-away splits for 2009. On the road, the four- year veteran has been a stud, going 7-5 with a 3.13 ERA. But at Coors field this season, the story is not so good, as Hammel is just 3-3 with a horrific 5.73 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts). Runs have been extremely plentiful in the games between these two teams at Coors Field recently as the over is 5-0 in the last five Phillies-Rockies match-ups played there going all the way back to the beginning of the 2008 season.
Jr Tipps
Jaguars at Seahawks
The Jacksonville Jaguars needed a couple of games before getting on track as the Seattle Seahawks seem like they've regressed. The Jags are coming off two strong offensive efforts and look to take advantage of the hobbled Seahawks team that will return their starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck today. Jacksonville scored more than 30 in each of the last games as they had 442 yards of total offense last Sunday in a 37-17 win over Tennessee, one week after beating Houston 31-24. Jacksonville faces a Seattle team that has allowed an average of 27.3 points in losing its last three games since beating St. Louis 28-0 to open the season and the Seahawks gave up 353 yards passing to Peyton Manning in a 34-17 loss to Indianapolis last Sunday. David Garrard is coming off his best game of the season for the Jaguars, throwing for 323 yards and three touchdowns as he is getting in tune with the veteran Pro Bowl receiver Torry Holt. Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck is feeling better after missing Seattle's last two games with a broken rib and ise expected to start today. Unforytunately Hasselbeck will be playing behind a banged-up offensive line as Pro Bowl tackle Walter Jones will not return until at least November, and there's a chance he could miss the rest of the season. Two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Patrick Kerney is also doubtful for Sunday's contest with a strained groin. That won't help a defense that has hurt themselves by mental mistakes as this defense only has two interceptions and two fumble recoveries this season. Jacksonville is hitting on all cylynders as this Seattle team will have no chance stopping this potentent Jacksonville run game that wil eventually open up the pass. 1st game back for Matt will be to tough with this bang-uo offensive line.
TAKE JACKSONVILLE +1
Sports Gambling Hotline
Minnesota -10 at ST. LOUIS
On a 43-32-4 comp play run the last 79 days.
We will stick with the red-hot Vikings as they play at St. Louis this Sunday.
Minnesota is fresh off their emotional Monday night home win and cover over Green Bay to improve to 4-0 straight up, and 3-1 against the spread this season.
Normally we would say this is a "letdown" spot for the Vikes, but with games upcoming against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay before they head to their bye week, we feel this is a "must win" spot for Minnesota.
Not much going on with the Rams this season, as St. Louis is 0-4 straight up, and 1-3 against the spread, scoring just 24 points in those 4 losses, while being blanked twice!
Minnesota's defense has not been as staunch as it was last year, but this looks like the week for them to make some noise.
Couple that with the Vikings offense starting to become fully involved now that Favre is comfortable at the wheel, and this appears to be a Minny road blowout if you ask us.
Play on the Vikes.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Karl Garrett
Minnesota at ST. LOUIS
5-2 free play run the last 7 days!
The G-Man is not going out on a limb and laying double-digits on the road today, but instead will look for some points to be scored in this Vikings-Rams game.
True, St. Louis has been shutout twice in their four losses this season, but we won't need them to score much more than 10-points in this game, as I feel Minnesota's offense is capable of putting up the rest, and will take this game OVER pretty much by themselves.
Minnesota hasn't scored less than 27-points in any of their four wins this season, and they have played OVER the total in three of their four games this year.
The Vikings are also on a 9-4 OVER run their last 13 on the road.
Gotta stick with the trends, and look for Minnesota to pile up the big number once again, and for St. Louis to get about 10-points or so to take this one OVER the posted price.
4♦ OVER
Drew Gordon
Cincinnati at BALTIMORE -8'
Now a 66-58 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Cincinnati/Baltimore match up.
Coming off their first loss of the season, I'm looking for the Ravens to regroup today at home, coming out razor sharp and ready to blast the visiting Bengals this afternoon. Read on...
Plenty of bettors have become enamored with this resurgent Cincy team, and while they do have an impressive win over Pittsburgh to their name, they also looked terrible at the Browns last week. Inconsistency has always plagued this Bengals squad, and it will come back to haunt them against a Ravens team that owned them last season.
That's right, Ravens outscored the Bengals by a combined score of 51 to 13 last season, more than doubling their yardage total (401 to 155). Fast forward to this season, and a more refined Baltimore offense now complements their always trusty defense. Cincinnati's defense is allowing 353 total yards on the road, and if Cleveland can rush for 146 yards on 33 carries, then the Ravens monster rush attack will steamroll them!
Finally, from a trend standpoint, there's plenty of reason to believe the Ravens bounce back here. Not only have they been a cash-cow for some time now, going 18-6 ATS over their L24 (incl. 6-1 ATS run at home), but they also play big inside the division, going 7-2 ATS! In the end, Palmer's resurgence takes a step back this afternoon (like he did the last time he saw them, 10 of 25 for 99 yards and a pick). In the end, the Ravens circle the wagons at home, as they rebound from their first loss of the season with a lopsided win and cover in this one!
Take Baltimore over Cincinnati in this NFL match up.
2♦ BALTIMORE
Jeff Benton
Tampa Bay at PHILADELPHIA -15'
I’m on a 10-5 run with NFL freebies, and I’ll add to that impressive record Sunday by taking the Eagles as a big home chalk against Tampa Bay.
You won’t find me backing a huge favorite like this in the NFL very often, but this is one rare instance where I don’t mind doing it. You’ve got the Eagles extremely fresh coming off a bye week, and they’re getting QB Donovan McNabb back from that broken rib. On the other hand, you’ve got the Buccaneers on the road for the second straight week with a second-year quarterback (Josh Johnson) making just his second career start (the first came last week).
Tampa Bay comes into this game winless, and although the final score last week at Washington (16-13) suggests that maybe the Bucs are coming around under first-year coach Raheem Morris, don’t kid yourself. First off, the Redskins stink, especially offensively. Secondly, despite facing that anemic Redskins offense, the Bucs still found a way to blow a 10-0 halftime lead on the road.
No, the Buccaneers are very much the same team you saw the first three weeks when they got pummeled by the Cowboys (34-21), Bills (33-20) and Giants (24-0). And facing a dynamic offense and physical defense that Philadelphia brings to the table, you can expect to see another blowout defeat. After all, the Eagles’ two victories this year came against two teams (Panthers and Chiefs) that are a combined 0-7. Philly won those games by scores of 38-10 (with McNabb at quarterback in Carolina) and 34-14 (with Kevin Kolb at quarterback vs. the Chiefs).
The Eagles have covered in eight of their last 11 games overall, and they’re 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after a bye week (meaning coach Andy Reid has his troops ready to play) and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. And with only a game at Oakland on deck, we don’t have to worry about the Eagles getting caught in a look-ahead situation, either. Philly rolls here by at least 24 points.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA