Dominic Fazzini
Oakland at N.Y. GIANTS -15.5
I gave you an easy winner with my complimentary selection Saturday, picking Michigan State to cover against Illinois. Now I'm giving you the biggest winner on the board today, taking the Giants to beat up on Oakland.
The Raiders might have the most inept offense in the NFL. They have scored just 42 points in four games, and haven't scored a touchdown in their last eight quarters.
Oakland QB JaMarcus Russell is completing just 39.8 percent of his passes and has thrown just one touchdown and four interceptions. And now the Raiders are without leading rusher Darren McFadden, who will miss two to four weeks with an injured knee, and have a makeshift offensive line for today's game.
Giants QB Eli Manning didn't practice for most of the week because of his injured foot, but he is ready to start today. He really shouldn't need to do too much for New York to assume quick control and run away with this game, as I expect running backs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to wear down Oakland's defense.
The Raiders have been awful all season, and I don't see them improving today with an early start on the East Coast against one of the NFL's best teams. Take the Giants to cover the points today.
4♦ N.Y. GIANTS
Stephen Nover
Cleveland +6 at BUFFALO
It's not just a cliché to take the points when two bad teams are playing. The Browns very well could be the better team in this matchup.
Cleveland is winless but has gone against the Vikings, Broncos on the road, Ravens on the road and Cincinnati last week in a game the Browns should have won. The combined record of Cleveland's opponents is 14-2.
The Browns played extremely hard last week during their overtime loss to the Bengals. Morale should be improved with the trade of prima donna wide receiver Braylon Edwards.
Cleveland has improved it offense with the insertion of Derek Anderson at quarterback and Jerome Harrison replacing injured Jamal Lewis as the main running back. Anderson gives the Browns a vertical threat, something they lacked with Brady Quinn, otherwise known as Captain Checkdown. Harrison gives Cleveland some speed and juke instead of the over-the-hill plodding Lewis.
Anderson can attack a Bills secondary missing three starters, including star free safety Donte Whitner. The Bills also have yet to adequately replace injured linebacker Paul Posluszny. The Bills have surrendered 472 yards rushing in their last two games.
Aside from star nose tackle Shaun Rogers, the Browns don't have much of a defense. Browns coach Eric Mangini knows Buffalo well, though, having been a longtime defensive assistant under Bill Belichick in New England and having been the Jets' head coach last season.
The Bills have one of the five worst offensive lines in the NFL. Trent Edwards has been sacked 16 times, most in the AFC. What's startling about this is Edwards has been just a dink-and-dunker thrower despite having deep threats Terrell Owens and Lee Evans.
Only 20 of Edwards' 117 attempts have traveled beyond 15 yards. The Bills have averaged just 190 yards passing in their last 12 games, nine of which have been losses.
The Bills are in a division sandwich, having lost at Miami last week and playing at the Jets next week. The Browns also are in a division sandwich, but they are the underdog here.
Yes, Cleveland is bad. But the Bills have been outscored 65-17 in their last two games. They rank 23rd in scoring and last in time of possession. Buffalo has no business laying this many points.
I'm 3-1 on my NFL free picks this season.
2♦ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Bobby Maxwell
New England at DENVER +3
The FREE play run continues with my fifth straight comp winner Saturday with Oregon as the Ducks went to UCLA and deliered a beatdown to the Bruins. You want a sixth straight freebie today and i've got one for you on the Broncos as they host the Patriots in Denver.
I’ve been hesitant to jump on the Broncos bandwagon, but after four weeks, I’ve seen their defense come out and dominate, not just bad teams, but after the manhandling of the Cowboys last week, they have established themselves as a legitimate force.
Denver’s defense leads the NFL only allowing 26 total points this season. The Broncos didn’t allow any points in the final three quarters against Dallas last week and won 17-10 as a one-point home underdog.
The Broncos are getting solid game management from QB Kyle Orton who has five TDs this season and no INTs. He hooked up with WR Brandon Marshall last week for an exciting 51-yard catch and run to beat the Cowboys. As long as Orton doesn’t make bone-headed plays and turn the ball over, the defense will keep Denver in this one right to the final gun.
New England beat Baltimore at home last week, 27-21 as a one-point home favorite, but the defense was bending severely with the Ravens driving the ball inside the 15 yard line with a minute left before a dropped pass killed Baltimore’s chances at an upset.
Despite a humiliating 41-7 loss in New England last year, the Broncos are 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings with the Patriots.
Denver is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season and are on further ATS runs of 7-1-1 as a home underdog, 4-0 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover.
New England is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after a pointspread win and 6-13 in its last 19 after a SU win. This isn’t a good spot for the Pats. They went to New York and lost to the Jets 16-9 earlier this season and now hit the road for just the second time this year.
The Denver defense is going to make life tough on QB Tom Brady today in some frigid weather. Go ahead and grab the points and play Denver at home.
2♦ DENVER
Chris Jordan
New England at DENVER +3
Off an easy road win with the Ohio Bobcats, we're coming back with the Denver Broncos over the visiting Patriots.
The question continues to arise: are the Broncos for real?
And I'm still asking myself if the Patriots are for real ...
After all, they were beat solidly by a Jets defense that was riddled last week by the Saints. So just how much defense from a home team does it take to shut down Tom Brady and company?
And on the other side of the ball, what is New England going to do against a Denver offense that might not create a lot of big plays, but that is versatile and is extremely effective when running double twins (that would be two receiver sets on each wide side), or double tight ends?
The Patriots are alway good defensively, but coach Josh McDaniel has turned Kyle Orton into an awfully confident quarterback these days. For the record, he hasn't thrown an interception this season, but he has led the Broncos to a 4-0 start - their best record since 2003.
Knowshon Moreno is going to get in on the act this week, and with a balanced attack, I think the value is with the home pup, rather than the road chalk.
2♦ DENVER BRONCOS
Scott Delaney
Strong and easy winner on Brigham Young, which was available all week for you to make good on.
Now it's time to cash in on the 49ers, who are going to prove to everyone they're for real, by dispatching of the cross-country traveled Falcons.
I'm not buying into everyone's fantasy of the Falcons being in a good spot after a week off ... heck, the Niners had the week off too. It was a scrimmage game with the Rams. A 35-0 blowout, if you will.
The only difference in my eyes is that San Francisco got to hone in on some things.
And they're looking awfully sharp.
We've seen this team come together on offense - how great does Vernon Davis look - and the defense is, well, Mike Singeltary-like!
With Atlanta, we've yet to see Michael Turner or Roddy White get into a groove on offense. And even though Matt Ryan is completing almost 66 percent of his passes, they're more of the dink-and-dunk nature, and he too hasn't found a groove vertically with his aerial attack.
Nah, I'm not falling for it. This is a soft line for a very good football team.
Ball control once again with rookie Glen Coffee, and trust me, he'll be hitting those gaps where Atlanta is thin defensively.
This is a no-brainer.
3♦ 49ERS
Tony Weston
The Rockies and Cardinals get postponed, so I have to hold off a day from delivering another winner. That’s fine because I’m delivering today as I’m taking the Vikings on the road in St. Louis.
Minnesota comes into today’s game a perfect 4-0 SU this year and 3-1 ATS and now battle a St. Louis Rams team that may very well be the worst team in the NFL. The Rams come into this game 0-4 SU and only 1-3 ATS, with the only cover coming on the road at a pretty bad Redskins team.
Consider that so far this season St. Louis is only averaging 6 points per game. That’s right, only 6, while allowing an average of 27 points per. Twice this year the Rams have been shut out, including last week’s 35-0 embarrassment at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers.
Including last week’s loss ATS, the Rams have gone just 3-8 ATS their last 11 against the NFC and are just 7-16 ATS their last 23 games overall.
Also, St. Louis has covered in just 6 of its last 22 home games and has covered in just 3 of its last 13 games when installed as a home underdog.
The Vikings, on the other hand, have covered in 4 of their last 5 games on the road and will cash in once again today in St. Louis.
Take Minnesota on the road easily in this one.
3♦ VIKINGS
Steve Duemig
Tampa Bay at PHILADELPHIA -14'
The Bucs infighting has run rampant now. Offensive linemen are calling out other linemen and now Cadillac is accusing some of his offensive team mates of not playing hard enough. This is gonna get ugly early. The Eagles will take no prisoners here. TB is not a good football team in any aspect of the game. Josh Johnson will not be able to figure out the Eagle blitzes and they will be in his face all day. They have a new kicker who was out on the streets this time last week as well. If the Eagles don't win this game by 3 td's I will be shocked.
JIM FEIST
DALLAS COWBOYS / KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
TAKE: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Can you imagine how good Dallas (2-2 SU/ATS) would be if they had kept Bill Parcells? Running the Big Tuna out of town for Wade Phillips was a terrible move by Jerry Jones. They still have above-average talent in a lot of areas, but the lack of coaching was evident in Sunday.5?s 17-10 loss at Denver, especially on the final drive. Instead of being calm and using time outs properly, they looked like a frazzled team in the final 30 seconds, falling short of a tying TD. And a 10-0 first quarter lead was meaningless as Denver adjusted in the second half and Dallas couldn.5?t generate anything on offense. The Cowboys are 12-12 since a 12-1 start in 2007 under Phillips. QB Tony Romo (4 TDs, 4 INTs) should have better numbers with talents like WR Patrick Crayton, Pro Bowl TE Jason Witten and WR Roy Williams to throw to, plus RB Marion Barber, who averaged almost 4 yards per carry Sunday, but only had 11 carries. Kansas City (0-4 SU/ATS) had an 0-4 SU/ATS preseason and has new looks everywhere after trading TE Tony Gonzalez, bringing in a new coach (Todd Haley), a new GM and a new starting QB in Matt Cassell (5 TDs, 2 INTs). They are off a 27-16 home loss to the Giants. On paper Dallas is obviously the better club, however, this Dallas team is just to erratic to being laying this kind of wood on the road. Until Dallas shows they can bring their talent together, we'll take the points against the Cowboys.
Bob Balfe
Raiders/Giants Under 37.5
The Oakland Raiders will be missing their top running back and fullback. They have young receivers and a QB that is the worst in the league. I do not see this Raiders team scoring at all. Eli Manning will probably play, but I think the Giants do enough to get by in a sloppy walk thru type game. I do not see Manning exploding for points with a banged up knee against a team that is horrible. The GMen will want to stay healthy for a big offensive game next week vs. New Orleans. Look for low scoring. Take the Under.
Sports Insights
Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers
Our offshore contacts circled this game early in the week. The Carolina Panthers, one of last year's best NFL teams, is yet to win a game this season (0-3). Bettors are pounding their money down on the Carolina Panthers to "make like their 12-4 record" last year. Almost 80% of the bets are landing on Carolina this week. Even so, the line has moved from Washington +4.5 down to Washington +3.5 because "big money" is loading up on the Redskins.
This kind of sports marketplace action ("reverse line movement") is a good indication of "smart money" at work. SportsInsights.com's tools indicate that a "Smart Money" play was triggered on Washington by Carib (8-4, +3.34 units). This matches up with what our offshore contacts have been telling us. We believe that there is still excellent value in betting the Redskins +4 at Sports Interaction. Let's "bet against the Public" and go with the "big money."
Washington Redskins +4
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions
This game is one of the most "lopsided-bet" games of the week. Even though the Steelers are just 2-2 this season, sports bettors are getting down on the Steelers as if they are the league's powerhouse. And why not? This week, the Steelers play the lowly Detroit Lions, a team with one of the league's worst point differentials this season -- and a team that was, umm, winless last year!
Almost 5 out of every 6 bets are coming down on the Steelers. Even with such a huge disparity of bets, our sports betting analytics saw a "Smart Money" play triggered on Detroit by Phoenix (11-2 +9.13 units). The line opened at Detroit +12 at Cris, but is currently +10.5. We see this "reverse line movement" despite the fact that Detroit's rookie QB Stafford is out for the game.
Our readers know that we often need "bad" teams to "not be horrible" against "good" teams. Here, we see a "live dog" in the Detroit Lions getting double-digit points at home -- against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has given up an average of 20 points a game this season. Not the "Steel Curtain" of old... We still see excellent value in betting the Detroit +10.5 at BetUS
Detroit Lions +10.5
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
One of our favorite sportsbook risk-managers was animated about this match-up. He said that the New England-Denver game was getting a "LOT of action" -- and that most of his book's smaller bettors were getting down on New England, "after the Patriot's impressive win last week over the Baltimore Ravens." Even the headlines have been trumpeting, "The Dominating Pats of Old." However, even with heavy one-way action on New England, there was reverse line movement.
The line opened at Denver +3.5, but made a huge move to the key football number of +3. This kind of reverse line movement is a definite indication that "big money" is taking the Denver Broncos at home. There is still excellent value in betting Denver +3.5 at BetUS. In addition, SportsInsights.com's Smart Money tool triggered a play on Denver by 5Dimes (28-22, +4.34 units). This is a week of several "smart money" plays. Let's see if the "sharps" can help us to another winning week.
Denver Broncos +3.5
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5
Matthew Stafford has been ruled out Sunday, and I don't feel Daunte Culpepper can make enough plays for Detroit to be competitive in this one. The Lions' defense is so bad that Pittsburgh will score almost every time they get the ball, just like Chicago did last week en route to a 48-24 victory over Detroit. The Lions are giving up 33.5 points/game this year. This Pittsburgh offense has improved with every game so far, and they are coming off a season-high 38 points last week against San Diego. They are hitting on all cylinders, and Big Ben is putting up more big numbers. Now they found a running game behind Rashard Mendenhall, who rushed for career-highs with 29 carries, 165 yards and two touchdowns last week. The Steelers are 26-12 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.