Wunderdog
Washington at Dallas
Pick: Under 53
The "game of the year" last week between Dallas and the Denver Broncos saw nearly 100 points scored. That game garnered a ton of attention and it has pushed the total a bit higher here for this one vs. Washington. This is a huge division rivalry game, and these types of games are often played with a lot of defensive intensity. There is more at stake here, as the loser will suffer their fourth loss, so I do expect this one to be played tough in the trenches. Last year these teams played to totals of 47 and 48, so there is definitely some wiggle room as the total is set too high. Washington has not scored a ton of points in any game this season as RGII continues to struggle to get healthy after knee surgery. The Skins defense has allowed fewer points in consecutive games, and is now coming off a bye. Dallas has shown the ability to clamp down on defense after allowing 30+ in their previous game, and have gone 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 after having done so. Under Mike Shanahan, the Redskins are 17-7 to the UNDER when facing great offensive teams (those like Dallas averaging over 5.6 yards per play). Play this one UNDER the total.
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Green Bay at BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We think we have found a really good spot here for the home dog against a heavy public favorite. We know that Aaron Rodgers may get his yards and points in this game, but the absence of Clay Matthews for the Pack could mean a heavy dose of Ray Rice. The Packers run defense isn’t that great anyway, but take away your best player and this could mean a lot of trouble for the Packers defense. Another stat of interest: the Ravens are 13-0 in their last 13 home games vs. NFC opponents. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has not been great at the start of the season, but this is the time and the type of game where he comes up big…the Sharps expect more of that Sunday. With this line (as all lines in NFL), make sure you get the Ravens plus the full 3 points!
Marc Lawrence
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Cleveland Browns
It wasn't supposed to happen this way. Not when Cleveland started 0-2, traded star RB Trent Richardson to the Colts and was forced to start 3rd-string QB Brian Hoyer in Week Three. Lo and behold, three weeks later they sit tied atop the AFC North at 3-2 after having been written off as being Johnny Football whores. With confidence at an arguable all-time expansion high, they host the Lions in the finale of a 3-game home stand with the knowledge that dogs of more than 2 points off a win of 7 or more points are 9-2 ATS in this role since 1980. The real key here, though, is the Browns defense, one that has held three opponents to season-low yards this campaign. On the flip side, the Lions have allowed more than 400 yards in each of their last three games, the last a 22-9 loss at Green Bay minus the services of star WR Calvin Johnson (check status this week). The loss could largely be attributed to negative plays as QB Matthew Stafford was sacked five times and Lions runners were tackled seven times for loss, but that's what happens when the opposing team's defense is controlling the game. With NFL Thursday winners a commanding 27-9 SU and 24-11-1 ATS at home the next game against opponents off a loss, look for the Pound to be barking again this Sunday. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Prediction: New York Jets
The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will win this game by a minimum of four points. I had mentioned in last week's winning pick on the Jets that their defensive front is playing at a very high level and grades as one of the best in the NFL. This is a nightmare matchup problem for any OC coordinator and they are only going to get better. Despite the NY media attacks on the Jets recent attention to defensive players in the draft, those decisions are not paying handsome dividends. Sheldon Richardson was drafted last year as the 13th overall pick and he grades as the third best DE in the game right now. He ranks second behind J.J. Waat in runs top in the NFL. Tackle Damon Harrison ranks the best at his position stopping the run. Muhammed Wilkerson got off to a slow start this season, but in recent weeks his game is elevating to the levels seen last season. I don't see Pittsburgh having the ability to run the ball consistently against this defensive line and without the ground attack, Roethlisberger will be subject to pressure and 'hurries' all game. The Jets, however, have an advantage on the OL and will be able to establish the run allowing Geno Smith the ability to call an appropriate audible and use play action to exploit man coverage situations. The Jets have the better OL and DL and I believe they will dominate this game. Steelers are an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over the last 3 seasons. SIM projects that Steelers will gain between 50 and 75 yards. In past games, they re 1-8 ATS the past three seasons and 10-39 ATS since 1992 when gaining 50 to 75 rushing yards. Take the Jets.
Ben Burns
St Louis vs. Houston
Play: Under 43
Both these teams are off to disappointing starts. The Rams are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. The Texans check in at 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. They've also both been profitable for "over" bettors, the "over" going a combined 7-3 in their 10 games.
In my opinion, those results have worked in our favor; helping to keep the line above the important 41 mark. As of this writing, its climbed to 43. I believe that's providing us with very fair value.
The Texans managed a mere three points last week. They've scored only 32 in their last three games combined.
While the points allowed (27.8 overall, 23.5 at home) doesn't look too impressive, keep in mind that the Texans are allowing just 260.2 yards per game. That happens to be the best mark in the entire league. By far.
The Texans are particularly stingy against the pass, allowing 134.2 yards per game
While they were without Cortland Finnegan, the Rams are off their best defensive performance of the season - albeit against Jacksonville.
The Rams finally got their ground game going last week, running the ball 36 times for 143 yards. They'd desperately like to be able to keep that up .
The Texans are also a team which would really like to be able to run the ball - particularly with all Schaub's interceptions seemingly going the other way.
While I've already acknowledge it hasn't been the case this season, the "under" is still a healthy 12-8 the Texans last 20 home games. During that stretch, the "under" is also 12-6-1 in the Rams' road games.
With both teams running the ball frequently, I expect the clock to keep moving. The "under" is 6-1 the last seven times that the Texans were listed as home favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range, stats I feel have a solid shot at improving this afternoon. If you can get at least 43, consider the Under.
Matt Fargo
Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens +3
This is one of those games where I feel the wrong team is favored yet the public is continuing to hammer the road favorite. Green Bay is coming off a win over Detroit last week which came after its bye week and now it hits the road for the third time this season after having lost the first two games on the highway. The Packers offense has been solid as they are third in the NFL in both scoring offense and total offense but the defense has been a big letdown. They are ranked 20th overall and this is even with giving up just 286 total yards to the Lions last week. Of course, the Lions were a different team with Calvin Johnson being inactive. Now the Packers have to move on without linebacker Clay Matthews who was injured last week and linebacker Brad Jones who re-aggravated a hamstring injury last week. Green Bay has not been very opportunistic either on defense. In 2011 they were the best in the NFL with 38 forced turnovers, in 2012 they regressed significantly and only mustered 23 forced turnovers. Through four games this season the Packers have just five turnovers. Baltimore picked up a much needed road win at Miami last week which came after a tough three-point loss at Buffalo the previous week. The Ravens are 3-2 and are tied atop the AFC North with both Cleveland and Cincinnati so taking care of business at home is a must. They travel to Pittsburgh next week and despite the Steelers being winless heading into this week, Baltimore knows it will get a full effort out of Pittsburgh there which puts even more emphasis on this game. For the most part, it has been a disappointing start to the season as the Ravens are ranked 14th in total defense and 21st in total offense but they one thing they continue to do good is stop the run as they are ranked sixth in rushing defense. This is a big part of the game here as Green Bay has a rejuvenated rushing offense that Baltimore needs to keep in check. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is 7-8 against AFC teams on the road, whereas Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 10-0 against NFC teams at home. Additionally, the Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while the Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Kyle Hunter
Titans vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 41½
The Seattle Seahawks defense is on a whole different level when playing at home. Seattle should feast on Tennessee's backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick in this one. At the same time, the Titans defense is much better than most expected it to be. They have been very solid all year against even the top offenses in the NFL. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Seattle. Take the under.
Jimmy Boyd
Arizona Cardinals +10
The 49ers have struggled against good teams this season. They almost lost the season opener against Green Bay, and were handed embarrassing losses by Seattle and Indianapolis. Since those games the 49ers have played a soft Rams team, and a Texans team that is having some major issues this season. The once stout 49ers defense is now mediocre, allowing an average of 19.6 points per game.
The Cardinal's defense has played every bit as good as the 49ers have this season, allowing 19 points per game. Arizona has a 4-1 ATS record this season because they have continuously been undervalued by the oddsmakers. Even though Carson Palmer has been interception prone at times, he has given his team a chance to win in every game this season with the exception of their matchup versus the Saints. The 49ers are not in the same class as New Orleans at this point in the season, so there is no reason to believe they will be able to cover a double-digit line in this game.
Alex Smart
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -135
The New England Patriots are fresh off their first loss of the season to the Cincinnati Bengals and are primed for a bounce back despite vs over hyped New Orleans- despite of some injuries. New England’s defense this season already has slowed down some of the league’s better quarterbacks and now Saints pivot Drew Brees is on their hit list. I'm betting the home team gets us the money in this spot.
Joseph D'Amico
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -10
San Francisco is back on track, winning and covering their L2 games, outscoring St. Louis and Houston by a combined 69-14. The offense boasts the 6th ranked running game in the NFL, averaging 140.2 YPG on the ground behind Gore, Kaepernick, and Hunter. Arizona's run-defense has been good statistically but they really haven't faced a true ground game yet. Kaepernick's numbers are good…21of-38, 280 YP, and 3 TDs, but most-importantly, 0 INTs. The QB doesn't make costly mistakes. The Arizona LB corps will go after Kaepernick but this will allow the QB to do what he does best, come out of the pocket and create plays. Arizona is posting a mere 18.2 PPG. Carson Palmer has thrown for 1185 yards but has only a 58.9% CR and more INTs (9) than TDs (5). Without a true rushing attack, the Cardinals offense will be overwhelmed by the #2 ranked pass "D" of SF. The 49ers won both meetings last season by a combined, 51-14. Arizona is 2-7 ATS their L9 games played vs. the 49ers and 2-8-1 ATS their L11 games played in October. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played vs. the NFC and 8-2 ATS their L10 games played in October. Take San Francisco.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns +3
In a battle of 3-2 teams we will back the home dog here as Teams like Cleveland that home dogs of 2.5 or higher have covered 9 of 11 times in the last of a 3+ game home stand if they won their last game by a touchdown or more. Another fine system that has been cashing big is to play on Teams who won on a Thursday vs an opponent off an ats loss on a Sunday. These teams that have the extra days of prep time have made good use of it. The Lions have lost 15 of 20 vs winning teams and are 2-11 ats as a road favorite of 3 or less. Calvin Johnson has been limited with a nagging knee injury most of the week and may not play here and if he does may be limited. The Browns have played well with Gordon back in the fold and he has meshed well with QB Weeden. Cleveland has a defense that is over 90 yards better statistically. With Detroit 1-8 to the spread as a road favorite off a straight up and ats loss. We will back Cleveland as we See what Brown can do for you.
Bruce Marshall
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
While Tampa Bay's clubhouse is likely better off without any further Josh Freeman distractions, it's hard to see the Bucs improving much on the field in the short term with very green NC State rookie Mike Glennon (two picks in first start Sept. 29 vs. Cards) forced into action. Even if Michael Vick's tweaked hamstring (not originally thought to be serious) keeps him out, 2nd-year QB Nick Foles moved Chip Kelly's offense nicely last week at the Meadowlands and appears to be a better alternative than backing Glennon. Birds (tied for first in NFC East!) at least still appear invested for Chip Kelly; not sure about 0-4 Bucs for under-fire Greg Schiano.
Jim Feist
Titans at Seahawks
Pick: Over
A LONG road trip for Tennessee, 3,000 miles from the East Coast to the northwest. Despite a winning record (3-2), this team has a lot of problems. QB Jake Locker was having a breakout season but is done, so QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting. The offense had just 339 total yards and was 4-14 on third down. Running back Chris Johnson managed just 17 yards on 10 carries and now has 38 yards in the past two games combined. Seattle is home from a two-game road trip and won't be in a good mood after suffering their first loss, 34-28 at the Colts. Center Max Unger, a Pro Bowl selection last season, is back and will be able to play Sunday when the Seahawks host Tennessee after missing the past two games with a triceps injury, a huge plus. Seattle is talented all over the field and they play like beasts on this field. The Titans are 7-2 Over at home their last nine games against a team with a winning record. In fact,the Seahawks for such a good defensive team have gone over in nine of their last 13 games overall. I think Seattle will want to punish someone today and that's Tennessee. I like this game to fly OVER the total on Sunday.
Andy Iskoe
Seattle -13.5
Tennessee showed how much injured starting QB Locker is missed as backup Fitzpatrick played poorly in the loss to Kansas City. After playing 3 straight home games the Titans now make the long trip to Seattle. Generally considered as having the best home field edge in the league, the Seahawks seek to regain momentum following their loss in Indianapolis. It's a big number to lay but Seattle has been dominant at home since last season and the Titans are limited offensively. Seattle has a decided edge in running the football. Both teams do have solid profiles in key metrics but Seattle has the edge across the board, often by significant margins. Seattle's ability to run the football should work to wear down the Tennessee defense. The Seahawks have rushed for over 150 yards in each of its last 4 games. Ultimately Seattle extends its lead in the second half and gets a comfortable win.
AC Dinero
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Tennessee Titans
Seattle has talent across the board, which is why they are close to a 2 TD favorite this weekend. They live off the big play, which could be bad if they don't hit them since they are only converting 31% on 3rd down. The Titan pass D is pretty good at 6 ypa and are only giving up 28% on 3rd down. Even though the Titans are starting a back up QB, it wasn't as if the starter was lighting it up. Tennessee will run behind an improved OL, which been effective thus far. The Titans also don't beat themselves with mistakes, and thus, should be able to stay with in 2TD's of a very good Seattle team.