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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 13

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SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +6 over DALLAS

Perhaps the most exciting game of the season took place last week when Denver went into Dallas and won an old-fashioned shootout by a score of 51-48. Dallas rallied from 15 down, they took a seven-point lead with about five minutes to go and were in a position to win it with the ball and tied 48-48 with 2½-minutes to go. But once again Tony Romo threw a pick at the worst possible time. Denver ran the clock down and kicked the winning FG on the games’ final play. That outstanding performance by the ‘Boys has their stock soaring this week and we often say the worst time to jump on a team is when their stock is at its highest level.

No two ways about it. The media and Dallas fans would have been kinder if they just lost 51-28 instead of 51-48. That final drive interception only reinforced the perception about the Cowboys in general and Tony Romo in particular. It did show that the offense can hang with any team at least in a home game and that the new Cover 2 defense is not exactly a finished product yet. The Cowboys remain bottom five in defending all passing categories and that wasn't just the Manning factor. That loss to Denver was one of the most heartbreaking in years for Dallas and the emotional toll it took could very well carry over into this game. Let’s also not ignore that this is one of sports’ fiercest rivalries and when these two get together it’s almost always a game that is unpredictable and close. With that horrible defense and coming off a hugely emotional game, this is not the right time to be spotting six points with Dallas to a team that could easily score first and many more times after that.

Washington’s stock remains low. They have one win and it came against a Raiders team minus Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that the Redskins are a good team because they are not. They still boast one of the weakest secondaries in the game that gives up massive yardage every game. However, the ‘Skins are coming off a bye week, essentially giving them two weeks to prepare for this game. The NFL CBA says that players get a true week off during their bye week but that freak Mike Shanahan surely had players “voluntarily” coming in to watch film and prepare for this game. Regardless, the Skins had an extra week to get healthy and start over again, as they are just a game behind the leaders in the NFC East. As long as Robert Griffin III can avoid making mistakes and turnovers, the Redskins can stay in this game and compete. Dallas is bound to be a little down from last week and that would play in the Skins favor. Finally, this is a true buy-low, sell-high opportunity, as the Redskins are the forgotten team while Dallas gained a whole lot of backers after last week’s performance.

Carolina +120 over MINNESOTA

Minnesota was on its bye week but found a way to make news anyway, signing Josh Freeman after he was released by Greg Schiano. Christian Ponder isn’t a quality starter. Matt Cassel looked good against Pittsburgh, but everyone looks good against Pittsburgh. What is the purpose of adding yet another mediocre quarterback? Who will be No. 1? Who will be No. 2? Who will be No. 3? There are just too many question marks and not enough answers in Minnesota and we’re not about to back this team after a game overseas. Minnesota’s offense on paper doesn’t look bad with 24 points or more in every game but in case you haven’t watched them, most of their points came giftwrapped by the opposition. No offense or team in the NFL has been aided more than the Vikings by bizarre bounces and crazy turnovers. Without that, the Vikes would be averaging about 10 points a game. This week it appears as though Matt Cassel will start again but that could change by game time or during the game. Regardless, the Vikes offense is a one-dimensional mess and their defense can’t stop the marching band, having been shredded by Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Pittsburgh.

Carolina is 1-3 but they are the league’s best 1-3 team. The Panthers could easily be 4-0. They lost their opener to Seattle 12-7 and were in a position to win it. They lost in Week 2 to Buffalo by one point but surrendered a TD with 2 seconds remaining in the game to have victory snatched from their hands again. In Week 3, they destroyed the Giants 38-0 and last week the Panthers lost in Arizona by a score of 22-6 but had numerous opportunities to put away the Cardinals and even outgained Arizona in the air by a count of 268-160. The Panthers have been a self-destructive unit but have been the better team in every one of their games so far. The Panthers defense has allowed just five touchdowns in four games and opponents are scoring less than 15 points a game. A team this good should not be 1-3 after four weeks and certainly not 1-4 after this contest. Carolina is so close. If they can fix the little things, big things will happen for the NFL’s most undervalued squad. It starts right here.

Pittsburgh +111 over N.Y. JETS

Before the season began the Steelers win projection was nine games. The Jets’ win projection was five games and you would have to search long and hard for anyone that either bet the Jets over five or that was even thinking about betting it. Nobody wanted any part of the New York Jets. The Jets go on to win their opener and as a 13-point dog in Week 2 in a prime time game against the Patriots, the Jets were the better team and probably should have won. In the end they lost by three to the Pats and instantly gained respect. Fast forward two weeks and the Jets are a surprising 2-2 with another prime timer up on Monday Night Football in Atlanta. As a 10-point pooch, the Jets played their best game of the season and defeated the Falcons. Now the public has seen the Jets twice in the first five weeks and in both games the Jets were very impressive with a relentless defense and a young, dynamic QB that is moving the offense for the first time in years. The Jets are now 4-1 against the number and their stock is high.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has disappeared. Not only are the Steelers 0-4 but they’re coming off a bye week, meaning they have not been heard or seen from in two weeks. What folks do remember is that if they bet on Pittsburgh this season, they lost because the Steelers are 0-4 against the spread. That sets this one up beautifully. The Jets are in a huge letdown spot here after a Monday Night win and they will also play this one on six days rest while the Steelers will have had two weeks rest. The Steelers get some healthy bodies back and they also have a guy they can hand the ball off to in Le'Veon Bell. Perhaps most importantly, the Steelers are in a foul mood and figure to put relentless pressure on Geno Smith. Smith has committed turnovers in every game except one so far. He’s still a rookie and he still has a tendency to make bad decisions when pressured. Give us Big Ben over Geno Smith in a buy-low, sell high scenario and we’re most certainly going to hop on that train. Steelers get their first win of the season.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 8:32 am
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SPORTS WAGERS

Phoenix @ CAROLINA

OT included. After losing to the Islanders, 6-1, Phoenix responded with back-to-back road wins in Detroit and Philadelphia. This will conclude its five-game road trip and they’re either going to finish it 2-3 or 3-2. Dave Tippett will emphasize the importance of winning on the road and how they can turn a 0-2 start into a 3-2 finish. The Coyotes calling card under Dave Tippett has been defense, hard work and discipline and the Coyotes have shown precisely that in their last two games. Phoenix's top four of Keith Yandle, Derek Morris, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Zbynek Michalek are among the best in the league and the addition of Mike Ribeiro gives them a legit scoring threat. The Coyotes are a tough out and if teams aren’t at their best when playing them, they will run into trouble.

This year we’re seeing matchups that we haven’t seen in a couple of years and in the early going it seems to favor the road team. There are a few examples of the visitor winning in these situations that include Tampa’s win in Chicago, Colorado’s victories in Toronto, Boston and Washington, Calgary’s win and OT loss in Columbus and Washington respectively, Montreal’s win in Edmonton and Phoenix’s win in Philly. The home teams just don’t appear to be as well-prepared as the guest for a club that they haven’t faced in a long time. This is another one of those games. Carolina hasn’t seen the Coyotes since December of 2011. The ‘Canes are coming off a hard-fought OT loss against the Kings (another one of those “strangers”) and they have the Blackhawks and Maple Leafs on deck. We see this is an unfavorable situation for the Hurricanes and one in which they could get caught napping in.

Ottawa +139 over ANAHEIM

OT included. The Senators continue to be undervalued and against a team like Anaheim at a price like this, the Sens are a must play. Ottawa went into San Jose last night and lost 3-2 but we can guarantee you that coach Paul MacLean is steaming after the Sens were outshot 50-23. Ottawa has now lost three in a row and has just one victory in four tries but they’ve picked up points in three of their four games so far. In fact, the only game that Ottawa hasn’t picked up at least one point in was against San Jose last night. Ottawa has two more games left on its season-opening six game trip. These Sens are too good to keep losing at this pace. The Sens figure to be a little extra jacked up here in support of their new teammate, Bobby Ryan. Knowing how important this game is to Ryan, expect the Sens to give it everything they have and play their best game of the season so far.

The Ducks are overvalued because of three successive wins including a 6-0 shellacking over the Rangers in their last game. We say big deal, as the Rangers are getting crushed by everyone. Prior to that, Anaheim had a 3-2 win over Winnipeg, a 4-3 OT win over the slow starting Wild and a 6-1 loss to Colorado. We just can’t see how the Ducks are better than last year after basically swapping out Ryan for Silfverberg, losing Sheldon Souray and leaning on improvements from young guys that can only be so big. Although it’s just four games in, the Ducks have had the benefit of a soft schedule and when they did play a determined team like Colorado, they lost by five goals. Ottawa is the better club here in a good spot, taking back a sweet price.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 8:33 am
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Sean Murphy

Tennessee vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle

The Titans are off to a nice start this season but the wheels are starting to come off, and I don't expect them to contend with the Seahawks for four quarters on Sunday.

Last week, we saw Tennessee fade in an eventual 26-17 loss to Kansas City. Jake Locker's absence certainly didn't help matters as Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 21-of-41 passes and threw a pair of interceptions to go along with one touchdown. Without a consistent ground game to speak of, or an explosive wide receiving corps, this is an undermanned offense without Locker on the field - it really is as simple as that.

The good news is, the Titans do have a physical defense that some will say has over-achieved this season. That unit is capable of keeping them in this game for a while, but I believe it's only a matter of time before the Seahawks pull away with a back-breaking score.

Seattle should be in a foul mood after a very un-Seahawks like performance in Indianapolis last Sunday. Perhaps they were a little worse for wear after that thrilling come-from-behind overtime win in Houston a week early, but whatever the case, the 'Hawks weren't sharp in a 34-28 loss to the Colts.

This is an ideal bounce-back spot against a Titans squad that is still in line for some regression. Note that even in Tennessee's 38-13 rout of the Jets two weeks ago, it was still outgained in terms of total yardage. The Titans margin for error is razor thin right now and I feel they're running into a hornet's nest in every sense of the word on Sunday.

The Seahawks don't lose ATS very often and I don't expect them to miss a cover for a second consecutive week. Look for them to go back to what works, and that means playing an aggressive, opportunistic brand of defense, and keeping things simple on offense. That's a formula that should work well against a very beatable 3-2 Titans squad.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 8:34 am
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Teddy Covers

Green Bay vs. Baltimore
Pick: Under

We got two under-rated defenses facing off against two offenses that are struggling in the red zone AND committed to running the football . Put those three factors together with the consistently high totals in the modern NFL era and the case for the Under is perfectly clear.

Let me start with the defenses. Green Bay got Morgan Burnett back in the lineup at safety last week after missing the first three games of the season and he definitely had an impact, saving a potential big play TD with a beautiful pass breakup. The Packers front seven really controlled the field against Detroit, and there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to do it again here even without Clay Matthews relentless pass rushing abilities.

The Ravens stop unit didn't allow a single TD in their two previous home games. On the road over the past two weeks, Baltimore was able to consistently force field goal attempts with red zone stops. Buffalo and Miami combined to score only two TD’s in seven red zone chances. For all the ‘defensive leadership’ questions surrounding this team over the summer, here in the Fall, Baltimore’s stop unit is still worthy of respect.

In the Ravens loss at Buffalo two weeks ago, offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell took some heat for Baltimore’s lack of balance on offense. In their two previous games, Baltimore had 61 passes and 67 rushing attempts. Against the Bills, that ratio was 54 passes to nine rushes, and Joe Flacco threw five interceptions as a result. Last week, it was back to normal: 40 running plays and 34 passing plays. With a notable lack of downfield targets, Baltimore’s best chance for success in 2013 is by pounding Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce between the tackles. That being said, it’s surely worth noting that neither Rice or Pierce is averaging even three yards per carry this season!

In their last three contests, the Packers have had three different running backs rush for 99 yards or more in a game. Last week, even against Detroit’s shaky secondary, Green Bay was committed to the run throughout: 33 rushing attempts and 31 passing plays. Rookie Eddie Lacy is developing into an ‘every down’ back and a focal point of the offense. And while Baltimore’s red zone defense has been stifling, Green Bay’s red zone offense has been scuffling; 0-fer the game scoring TD’s in the red zone last week against Detroit.

Both QB’s have ‘downfield’ arm strength, but both offenses are settling for a lot of ‘dink and dunk’ this year. In particular, Joe Flacco is ranked #22 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt this season, right below Christian Ponder. And while Rodgers numbers are significantly higher, much of that has been on ‘catch and run’ short passes; something the Ravens defense has been very good at defending. Neither squad has an elite level offensive line and both QB’s have faced significant pressure for extended stretches this season.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 8:35 am
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Bryan Power

Detroit vs. Cleveland
Pick: Detroit

Typically, I'm wary of road favorites in NFL (they're just 10-16 ATS this season, including 2-5 last week), but I'll recommend a wager on the Lions this week as they play at the Browns. If Cleveland were a stock, they'd have the feeling of being at a 52-week high right now. They've won 3 straight, but I don't think it lasts..

I played against Detroit last week as they went to visit a desperate Green Bay team that was off its bye week. When it was announced gameday morning that their best player, WR Calvin Johnson, would not play, I felt fortunate that I made my bet early, thus ensuring I got a better line. Turns out that line of thinking was irrelevent as the Packers won 22-9 (line closed at -10.5). Johnson is listed as probable for this week and I see his return leading to a big offensive day for the Lions here.

How does your heart not go out to the city of Cleveland? Just when things start going right for the Browns, sparkplug QB Brian Hoyer is lost for the season to an ACL injury. That means the return of Brandon Weeden, who I have little regard for. Yes, the team won w/ Weeden under center last week, but that was against a bad Buffalo team. Look for things to start leveling off for the Browns starting this week.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 8:35 am
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Nelly

Houston Texans over St. Louis Rams

The Texans are 0-5 ATS this season and they have lost three in a row with both wins coming on the final play of the game in the first two weeks of the season. With the Colts at 4-1 already and the Titans looking formidable a return to the playoffs may be a long shot for a team that seems to be crumbling. Matt Schaub is playing with little confidence, incredibly with a pick-six in four straight games and but the Texans do have great overall statistics on both sides of the ball, looking like a far better team than the record shows. Houston has out-gained foes by a greater margin than any team in the NFL (and it is not close) as this team has much more potential than the results have shown. St. Louis has ugly numbers but they share the same record as the Texans at 2-3. In most categories the Rams are towards the bottom of the NFL on offense and defense and this should be a bounce back opportunity for the Texans. Even with a growing spread late in the week this is a good situation for Houston to get it together and last weeks win for the Rams over lowly Jacksonville was not impressive.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 8:37 am
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Harry Bondi

CAROLINA (-2) over Minnesota

Carolina provides a ton of value because this is a much better team than the record indicates. The Panthers come in off a misleading loss at Arizona in which they outgained the Cardinals, but turned the ball over four times. The defense matches up very well against the Vikings since they have been rock-solid against the run and shaky against the pass. Minnesota is allowing 30 points per game, so we expect Cam Newton to put up big numbers here. The Vikings are coming off a bye, but head coach Leslie Frazier is 0-2 ATS in his career with a week off to prepare and over the years the Panthers have done a great job of taking care of inferior opponents, going 10-4 ATS against losing teams the last three seasons and 67-38 (64%) since 1992. Panther roll over a distracted Minnesota team.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 8:38 am
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Bob Balfe

New Orleans Saints +2.5

I don’t doubt the ability of Tom Brady or the head coach of the Patriots, but this team has no offensive talent. The skilled players are just not good enough to make noise in this league. The Saints don’t have that problem. Who is going to stop their skilled players? Believe it or not I think the real damage will be done on the ground today. Wilfork going down was huge, but now Kelly is out also on defense. This line is looking pretty weak and if you give Drew Brees time forget it. This is a huge mismatch. Take the Saints.

Boston Red Sox -110

The key to the playoffs this year has been pitching. Both starters today are equally as impressive so I will go with the home team who is desperate to win today, hitting the ball better and very tough to beat at home. This should be another great game. Take Boston

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 8:39 am
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Doug Upstone

Cardinals vs. 49ers
Play: Under 41½

On Sunday, Play UNDER on road teams like Arizona when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, against opponent off a home win. In the past three decades, this system is 26-5, 83.9 percent, with the average total score 32.7.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 9:13 am
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Chase Diamond

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Buffalo Bills

This game features the 3-2 Bengals at the 2-3 Bills. Last week we played on the Bengals to a big win over the Patriots. This week we will switch sides to back the Bills who are in a nice home spot here. The Bengals are 9-20 ats in there last 29 games in October and 1-5 in there last 6 ats in October games. Bills are also 4-0 following a straight up loss and 4-0 ats last 4 playing on turf. Bengals are 1-4 ats in their last 5 meetings against the Bills. Also add in that the Bengals are fresh off a big time win and will be hard to get up for the Bills and a seemingly easy win. The public is all over the road Bengals here at a rate of 62% yet this line has dropped to -6 in some spots. Take the Bills plus the points here for a cover and a 9* winner.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 9:14 am
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Dave Mathews

Boston vs. Detroit
Play: Under

It was an ugly first game for Boston. They struck out 17 times against Detroit pitchers and lost just 1-0. despite a strong performance from Jon Lester. This becomes a must-win for the Boston with Clay Buchholz on the mound. He's pitched very well since coming off the disabled list on Sept. 10. Max Scherzer had a great season losing just three games. One of those three losses came against Boston. The difference in this game? Buchholz knows how to win at Fenway as he's 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA at home.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 9:14 am
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Joe Gavazzi

San Francisco -10.5

Arizona won 22-6 vs. Carolina in the phoniest final of the week. The Panthers outgained the Cards 353-250, but they also had numerous dropped passes, committed 4 turnovers, and allowed Arizona to sack them 7 times. Now the Cards are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS as they look to make a statement behind new HC Arians and triplets QB Palmer, WR Fitzgerald, and RB Mendenhall. That doesn't happen today; the Niners have awakened from the somnambulant state of weeks 2 and 3 when they were beaten by Indy and Seattle by a combined count of 56-10. Since those losses, they have won at St Louis and on this field vs. Houston by combined counts of 69-14. Last week, SF profited from a +4 net TO margin and a 177-131 overland edge for a 34-3 victory. The Cards are rushing just 23 times for an average of 81/3.5, and they won't be successful through the airways against a Niner defense allowing just 54% completions, among the best in the league. With last week's victory, it upped the record to HC Harbaugh on this field to 15-5-1 ATS. Niners are rolling now and we aren't standing in their way.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 9:15 am
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Charlie Scott

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers

You know The Steelers will come in prepared off a bye week. While the Jets come in full of themselves off a MNF Win. This is Rookie QB Gino Smiths first time seeing a Dick Lebeau defense that has had a week off to rest and prepare for him. Wait until game time to bet, Bookies have told me they expect Jet money.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 9:16 am
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Larry Ness

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Detroit Lions

The Cleveland Browns will return to Brandon Weeden at QB, with the injury in Week 5 to Brian Hoyer. Weeden’s thumb injury and less than acceptable play led to the QB change and the Browns responded with back-to-back wins, heading into their Thursday night Week 5 game vs the Bills. Hoyer injured himself on a scramble (torr a knee ligament) in that game and Weeden was called upon to fill in. Weeden would go 13 of 24 for 197 yards with one TD and no INTs but the star of the game for Cleveland in its 37-24 win was Travis Benjamin, who set a franchise record with 179 yards on seven punt returns, including a 79-yard TD. T.J. Ward’s 44-yard “pick-six” sealed the win.

As for the Lions, they lost to the Packers up in Green Bat last Sunday, for the 23rd straight time. Calvin Johnson was forced to sit out last Sunday's 22-9 loss to Green Bay because of an injured right knee but his status has ben upgraded to probable for this game. It’s NO small deal, as the Packers really contained Reggie Bush last Sunday, holding him to 44 yards rushing after he had gained a season-high 139 in a 40-32 win over Chicago on September 29. It marked the first time that Detroit (3-2) had failed to score at least 21 this season.

While I went against the Lions last Sunday, I’ve championed the Lions’ chances for improvement in 2013. Let me explain why I expect Detroit to rebound from LY’s 4-12 season (at 3-2, so far, so good). Moving the football wasn’t a problem for Detroit in 2012, as the Lions ranked third in total offense (408.8 YPC) but finishing off their drives was an issue, as the Lions averaged a modest 23.3 PPG. Consider that New England led the NFL in total offense but averaged 34.8 PPG, New Orleans was second in total offense and averaged 28.8 PPG and Denver finished fourth in total offense and averaged 30.1 PPG. One has to realize just how poorly the Detroit offense executed (when it mattered most) in 2012. Detroit’s defense wasn't bad either, as the team ranked 13th by allowing 341.1 YPG, meaning the team which finished the year outgaining foes on average by 67.7 YPG, would win just FOUR of its 16 games. The Lions were plus-67.7 YPG on the 2012 season, second-best in the NFL to Denver!

With the addition of Reggie Bush in 2013, I expected Detroit to fix the above issues. It’s NO surprise (at least to me), that in the two times in which Bush has played a full game (Week 1 and Week 4) and Calvin Johnson has also been available (he wasn’t in Week 5 vs the Packers), the Lions have scored 34 and 40 points, respectively. Bush had 200 yards from scrimmage in Week 1 vs Minnesota and 173 yards vs Chicago. With Johnson a likely go for this contest, expect the Lions to put points on the board.

As for the Browns, the return to Weeden (no choice) is NOT good news. He’s immobile in the pocket and if Detroit can do ONE thing on defense it’s pressure the QB. Note that Weeden’s been sacked 16 times (has 116 pass attempts), compared to Hoyer getting sacked six times with 96 pass attempts. The Cleveland running game is non-existent (79.0 YPG / 3.5 YPC) and while I usually stay away from the Lions on a grass field (especially as road favorite), I’m backing them here as Cleveland’s three-game win streak ends.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 10:38 am
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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Kansas City/ Oakland Under 41: This has been a very low scoring series over the last few years, as just 31.1 ppg has been scored between these teams in the last 9 meetings, with the OU going 1-7-1 over that stretch. Let's also note that week 6 divisional home favorites of 4 or more have gone 16-2 to the Under since 1996. Very solid trends there, but not only reason for the play. Alex Smith is more of a game manager than an explosive QB and teams are figuring this out. They know e won't go deep so they take that out of the equation when defending him. His is a dink and dunk QB the would like to take 6 plus minutes of the clock before getting points. Last week they put up 26 points vs Tennessee, but just scored one offensive TD in the game. Today this conservative offense will be going up against a solid Raider defense that has allowed just 21.6 ppg. Speaking of defense, the Chiefs are ranked tops in the league in points allowed (11.6 ppg), 7th in yards allowed and 4th vs the pass. The Chiefs are 21st vs the run so I expect an Oakland offense that is 9th in rushing, compared to 27th in passing, to pound the rock at the Chiefs, which will keep that clock rolling. This should be a low scoring affair between teams that are used to them.

HOUSTON -7 over St Louis: This may be this biggest game of Schaub's career or he just may find himself on the bench. Schaub has struggled, but he is very capable of turning it around vs a bad St Louis defense. Arian Foster is also starting to pick it up and will have at it vs the 27th run defense of the Rams, which should really help Schaub hit some big plays down down field with play action. The Ram offense can't run the ball right now as they currently are 29th in rushing and that is not good new going up against this defense. The Texans are the top defensive team in the league and they allow just 134.2 ypg through the air, so the Rams won't be able to run or throw in this one. Also the lack of a running game will mean that Bradford will be in a llot of long down situations and you don't want that vs this stout DL. St Louis does not match up well at all in this game and they will be taking on a desperate and angry Houston squad to boot. Texans by at least 2 TD's in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh +1 over NEW YORK JETS: Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and are still looking for their first win of the year, while the Jets are on a short week and playing off a last second road win on MNF. Bad spot for the Jets here. Also in a bad spot here is rookie QB Geno Smith, who will be facing a Dick Lebeau defense that has had an extra week to prepare for him. Despite the wins by Smith, lets also remember that he has 8 INTs on the year to 7 TD's. Big Ben hasn't been great in the last two game, throwing 6 INT's, but he also did throw for 789 yards in the two games. Pittsburgh is desperate, they've had the extra week off and the Jets are on a short week. All adds up to a Pittsburgh win here.

1 UNIT PLAY

Green Bay/ Baltimore Over 49: Both offense are high scoring ones and should put up plenty of points here. Baltimore's defense has been suspect this year, while the Pack will be missing Mathews and that should really weaken their defense. Even with him in their they are ranked 26th vs the pass. This should be a fun one.

Top 5 Power Angles For Today (7-3)

The Raiders are 11-0-1 ATS as division road dogs vs a .400 or better opponent.

Green Bay is 9-0 ATS vs non-conference opponents that are better than .500 on the season.

Washington Redskins are 7-0 ATS as division road dogs of less than 7 and they are 11-2 ATS their last 13 vs Dallas.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone 7-0-1 to the UNDER off a road game that went OVER.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games at home.

 
Posted : October 13, 2013 10:39 am
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