RJ Robbins
Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns
Remember earlier this season after the Browns traded Trent Richardson to Indy, they were accused of tanking this year to get the Number 1 pick in next year's draft. After 5 weeks into this season the Browns are tied in 1st at 3-2 with the Bengals ansd Ravens. Head Coach Pat Shurmur didn't get that memo! The Browns under Shurmur are now 7-3 getting points at home. Detroit on the other hand is 1`-5 the last 2 years as a road favorite.
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Saints and Pats to stay under the posted total.
While I'm definitely an "offensive" guy (no pun intended), I have to say I'm more impressed with New Orleans' defense than I am their offense. No disrespect to Drew Brees, because I still believe they can score with anyone in the NFL... other than maybe Denver, but the defense (to me) has been the high point of this team and the main reason they are unbeaten through six weeks.
On the other side, Pats QB Tom Brady had his streak of 52 consecutive regular-season games with a touchdown pass ended last week. Seriously, is anyone all that impressed with this offense?
Oh sure, Tom Brady has a way of making receivers look better than they probably are, but even the best of the best can't make certain receivers run open or catch passes. That's what happened last week, and though I do expect Brady to have a better game today at home, I can easily see him struggling for a second straight week.
Just one year after leading the league in scoring a yards per game, that Pats are now in 19th place in terms of points per game and 18th overall in total yardage... obviously those numbers got worse after their 13-6 loss to Cincy last week.
Defense, however, has been one bright spot for the Pats this year, holding their opponents to just 14 points per game. The Saints aren't far behind at 14.6.
This leads me to believe that even though both of these programs are known for their high-powered offenses, it's the defenses that have been better and will rule the roost today.
Play the UNDER as your free play of the day.
4♦ NEW ORLEANS-NEW ENGLAND UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Eagles-Buccaneers game.
Conflicting trends here as Tampa Bay has been Under the total in all 4 of their games this season, and 8 in a row now dating back to last year. Philadelphia meanwhile has played Over the total in their last pair of games, and 4 of 5 overall in the Chip Kelly era.
Michael Vick is bothered by a hamstring injury, and that is all the more reason I like the Over, as I feel backup Nick Foles will want to show that he can be a starter in this league as he moves forward in his career.
Mike Glennon makes the second start of his career for the Bucs, and he did toss a couple of costly picks in Tampa's last game before their bye, as the result saw Greg Schiano's team lose another 13-10.
With an extra week to get ready for this clash, I think Glennon will find some of the holes in the sieve-like Eagles defense that is allowing almost 32 points per game this year.
Tampa's string of 8 straight Unders gets halted here.
Eagles to make it a 5-1 Over run for the year.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA-TAMPA BAY OVER
Brad Wilton
My free play winner for this Sunday in the NFL is the take the underdog Oakland Raiders to stay within the number in their game at Arrowhead Stadium against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.
Price getting a little "rich" on the 5-0 Chiefs who have also covered in all 5 of their wins. Problem is, Oakland has been a thorn in KC's side in their home stadium, as the Raiders have covered in each of their last 7 visits to Kansas City, and are 9-1 against the spread the last 10 times the division rivals have met at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Raiders do have a bye week next week, and coach Dennis Allen would like nothing better than to head to that week off with a stunner of an upset against one of the three remaining unbeatens in the league.
Outright may not occur, but I do think the visitors are getting enough to extend their road cover streak to 8 straight in Kansas City.
Backing Oakland plus the points in this one.
4♦ OAKLAND
Brett Atkins
The Pittsburgh Steelers opened up a 2.5-favorite Sunday night. By the time the New York Jets were done upsetting the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night, the Flyboys were laying the 2.5. As of 10 a.m. eastern, the Jets are laying a point.
I know the Steelers are hoping to avoid their first 0-5 start since 1968, when the team lost its first six and finished 2-11-1. And as hard as it is for me to go against the original favorite in this one, I do think the Jets are the right side, and believe coach Rex Ryan is on to something right now.
Jets quarterback Geno Smith became the second rookie quarterback to win on the road last Monday against the Falcons, and currently leads the league with three go-ahead drives in fourth quarter, including two that won games as time expired. For his effort in Atlanta, Smith was selected AFC offensive player of week after throwing three touchdown passes with no turnovers.
Over his last three games in the fourth quarter, Smith is 19 of 23 (82.6 percent) for 234 yards with three touchdowns versus no interceptions and an impressive 148.6 QB rating.
Hard to argue with something that's working. Take the Jets.
5♦ JETS
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday is on Jacksonville plus the points, in Denver, as there's something that tells me Broncos coach John Fox will treat this like the second game of the preseason, and will have his starters resting by the second half.
I know Denver has scored 230 points, the most by any team through five games in NFL history, but if this team goes up by 30 points early on, Fox will put his vehicle in cruise control, avoiding injuries while quite possibly sharpening his depth chart.
And lest we forget we're one week removed from Denver's defensive meltdown against the Dallas Cowboys, who came closer than any other team of outpointing the Broncos. I'm not saying the Jaguars have the firewpower, but to come down from last week's game to this level could throw the Broncos out of whack, too.
I'm just very cautious about a 4-touchdown favorite in this situation - a sandwich home game between last week's trip to Dallas and next week's trip to Indianapolis. The smart play in this one is to take the points.
5♦ JACKSONVILLE
Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday is on the New Orleans Saints plus the points in New England, as I think the Patriots could lose outright.
These two teams have arguably the league's best tight ends, but the Patriots will have to do without Rob Gronkowski, who missed the first five games after forearm and back surgeries and will miss this game today. And as inconsistent as the Patriots' offense, I don't know if they'd hang even with Gronk.
Instead, my money is on Drew Brees connecting with his tight end, Jimmy Graham, who was tied for second with 37 catches after making 10 in New Orleans' 26-18 win over the Chicago Bears last Sunday.
The other problem New England will have today is the Saints' knack for chewing up time, as they lead the league in time of possession at 34:37. And I personally don't know if New England has enough on offense to sustain long drives to keep the ball away from Brees.
Instead, this storyline is about Brees and his numerous productive players to connect with via the passing game, besides Graham, include running backs Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, plus wideout Marques Colston.
This one is all Saints.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS
Sean Michaels
Going for a third straight football comp winner today by backing Houston (-7 1/2) to snap a three-game skid by beating St. Louis at home.
Matt Schaub - despite throwing a pick-six in four straight games - did NOT forget how to be a winning quarterback. He's simply in a slump like every athlete since the Roman Empire has experienced at one time or another. True, he almost lost his starting job this week, but coach Gary Kubiak decided to stick with "his" guy and numerous teammates, including Arian Foster, Andre Johnson and Brian Cushing, stepped up for their embattled field general.
The Rams enter off a 34-20 victory over winless Jacksonville at home last Sunday. Not exactly impressive. And their only other win was in their season opener at home against Arizona 27-24. In-between, they lost 31-24 at Atlanta, 31-7 at Dallas and 35-11 at home to San Francisco.
Houston has lost three in a row on the field and five in a row in Vegas, but both slumps end today.
3♦ HOUSTON
OC Dooley
Patriots -1.5
This is a major REVENGE contest for both the Patriots and their star quarterback. The last time these pair of league heavyweights met was on the Monday Night national stage back in the 2009 campaign when the eventual Super Bowl champion Saints feasted on the overwhelmed Patriots in a 38-17 final verdict where Drew Brees had a record passer rating (158.3) that included five different touchdown passes. Midway through the final quarter of that infamous contest New England virtually threw in the towel replacing Tom Brady with backup Brian Hoyer. Even though the rosters have changed for both sides since than odds are that both coach Bill Belichick and Brady will not forget that humiliation. Drew Brees is now “3-0” versus Tom Brady in their NFL careers with the only time Brady coming out on top was in 1999 at the collegiate level. With all of the injuries and attrition which has caused New England to use untested rookies at receiving spots, one can argue that the wrong side is favored in today’s rematch as New Orleans is the only undefeated side remaining in the NFC while tight end Jimmy Graham is on the brink of setting an all-time league record at that position with four consecutive 100-yard receiving efforts. But while the Saints are excelling on both sides of the football with Sean Peyton back as the head coach, the team with him at the helm long term (6-11 ATS) has struggled where it counts on the ROAD. The big news in New England surrounds the questionable health of star tight end Rob Gronkowski which reportedly has caused strife in the lockeroom but that has only given up rare price “value” in a Patriots home game for which I am taking advantage