Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 14

Bryan PowerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
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Though they've been largely competitve in five games, the Cleveland Browns are still without a win, the only team in the league with that sorry distinction. With so few opportunities to achieve victory on a weekly basis, and desperate for a division win, I see the Browns "breaking through" in Week 6 at home against in-state rival Cincinnati, against whom they earned themselves a 'push' back in Week 2. An early line move suggests my line of thinking here is the way to go.
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The Browns have been competitive in every game this year. They lost to the Eagles by just a single point in Week 1 as I easily covered a generous number w/ them in the home dog role. Week 2 was the push against the Bengals, a 34-27 road loss. Week 3 saw them lose by only 10 points to the Buffalo Bills and on a short week they were competitive against the rival Ravens, again losing by only a touchdown on a Thursday night. Last week saw them jump out to a 14-0 lead on the Super Bowl Champion Giants, but they couldn't hold and lost 41-27. I think this week they put things together for a full four quarters.
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The Browns will have Joe Haden in the lineup Sunday, something that wasn't the case in Week 2 when they faced Cincinnati. Haden's presence is critical for containing super Bengals WR AJ Green. But the real difference in that first "Battle of Ohio" was an early punt return for a TD by Cincy. The Bengals are just 5-7 ATS the last 12 times they've been favored & lost outright at home last week to Miami. Cleveland is long overdue for a AFC North win, having last won a division game when they beat the Bengals 23-20 as a small home dog back in 2010. Take the Browns Sunday.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland vs. Atlanta
Pick: Oakland
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Oakland is 1-3 SU/ATS. Two weeks ago it lost 37-6 at Denver as a 6.5-point underdog. I believe the bye week could not have come at a more opportune time for this club.
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While some players and teams will use the bye week as a break and go their separate ways, Oakland was focused on practice, obviously no one satisfied with the 1-3 start:
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"You can say, 'I'm going to Vegas and party for four days,' but that's not what this team is about," Raiders' QB Palmer said last week. "Most of the guys are sticking around and are going to come in and work out."
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Palmer also believe's the bye could not have come at a better time:
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"A lot of times byes come so far into the season that you need a break," Palmer continued. "We don't need a break. We're frustrated that we are where we are. We looked at this week as a chance to get better, there are practices to get better, meetings to get better."
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After beating the Steelers, this club definitely took a step backwards last time out. But with the extra week off to prepare, I believe we'll see the same Raiders team that ran roughshod over Pittsburgh.
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The Falcons are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS; last week they held on for a 24-17 win at Washington as 3-point favorites.
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So the big question is: Will Atlanta get caught looking ahead to its bye week next week, and then a trip to Philadelphia on the 28th?
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It's hard to imagine the Falcons won't "look past" this lowly Raiders team.
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While I don't feel that Oakland will win this game outright, I definitely feel it's going to be much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
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I believe this contest sets up nicely as a classic "trap game" for the home side, and will recommend getting down as fast as possible, before this line comes down.
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Consider a second look at the Oakland Raiders this week!

Stephen NoverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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KC Chiefs +4FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The line has been pushed up a bit with Brady Quinn likely to start. Quinn has never been very good in the NFL. He's been nothing but a conservative, checkdown type of quarterback. But in a matchup where points are going to be hard to come by, Quinn is exactly the type of quarterback the Chiefs need.
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Kansas City has outgained its opponents by 415 yards. They've won the time of possession in all but one of their games. This is impressive considering the Chiefs have played a number of strong offenses and quarterbacks in going up against Atlanta, New Orleans, Baltimore and San Diego.
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So why are the Chiefs a miserable 1-4? They are a staggering minus 15 in turnover ratio. Matt Cassel was a big reason for that with 13 turnovers, including a terrible goal line fumble last week that probably cost the Chiefs a straight-up win against Baltimore.
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Tampa Bay is 1-3. They are more disciplined and better coached than last season under first-year taskmaster Greg Schiano. But the Buccaneers don't have the Chiefs' talent having lost their best offensive lineman, Darvin Joseph, and one of their best defensive players, end Adrian Clayborn, for the season.
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The Bucs are going to be as conservative as the Chiefs with their erratic quarterback Josh Freeman. There is going to be a lot of running and the Chiefs hold a huge edge with Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs rank No. 2 in rushing averaging 180.8 yards per game on the ground. Charles is first in the league in rushing and total yards from scrimmage. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and looks to be 100 percent from last year's season-ending knee injury.
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Tampa Bay ranks 27th in yards given up and is 30th in total offense. They don't have the skill position talent Kansas City does.
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The Chiefs are better defensively than they've shown. Their offense has put their defense in tough holes due to frequent turnovers. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are one of the better duo pass rushers in the NFL. The underrated Houston has 13 1/2 sacks going back to Game 13 of last year. No player has more sacks during this time frame.

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Survivor Pick - Week 6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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HOUSTON over Green BayFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Outside of Atlanta and to a lesser extent, Pittsburgh, the pickings are rather slim this week. One of our rules in this format is to never back a road team, so that eliminates the Steelers. That leaves Atlanta as the other team that the majority of your opposing poolies will be on. Should the Dirty Birds go down in defeat this week and you heed our advice, you figure to be in a very strong position. While Atlanta is 'supposed' to defeat Oakland, it is the NFL and strange things happen. Atlanta is a cushy 5-0 with no team in its division having more than one win. The Falcons have a bye on deck to be followed with a game against the Eaglest. The hope is that the Falcons get caught napping.
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The Texans are the other undefeated team in the league and while they’ll have some easier spots upcoming, this is the week we can use them to try and make a serious move by avoiding Atlanta. The Packers are a team in trouble. They drag their losing record down to Houston with a couple of notable injuries and no road wins .The Packers offensive strengths should be negated by the Texans' defensive prowess but the opposite does not hold true. We've come this far with our strategy, watching those following the 'sure game of the week' go down. Let's hope the Falcons lose and a resulting stronghold with a Houston win is what transpires.
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Week 6 pick – Houston straight up.
N.Y. Jets √
Cincinnati √
Chicago √
Green Bay √
New Orleans √

Carlo CampanellaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Buffalo BillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona, surprisingly, opened the season at 4-0, but 3 of their 4 victories could easily have gone the other way, as they won those games by only 2, 3 and 4 points. However, that winning came to an end when they lost 17-3 at St. Louis on Thursday Night Football. That first loss highlighted Arizona;s offensive troubles, as they only managed to put up 3 points on a 3-2 Rams squad, while QB Kolb was sacked 9 times in that game. That was no fluke, as QB Kolb was sacked 8 times the previous Sunday before, during a 3-point overtime win against Miami. Expect those troubles to continue against a Buffalo defense that's #17 with 10 sacks this season, led by DT Kyle Wiliams, With arizona coming of their first loss, must take the points as we find Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in his most profitable role, owning an 18-6 ATS (75%) record when facing a team that lost it's previous game.

NFL Betting Picks

Arizona Cardinals -4.5

The 2-3 Buffalo Bills will head to take on the 4-1 Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo opened the season with a 48-28 loss to the Jets as 3 point underdogs, then went home to beat KC 35-17, won their second straight 24-14 in Cleveland as 2.5 favorites, and then lost two straight at home vs the Patriots 52-28 and in San Francisco last weekend 45-3. They are 2-3 against the spread this season, but 0-3 ATS as an underdog and they've lost by a combined 86 points in those games. Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is completing 58.3% of his passes with 12 TDs and 8 INTs for a QB Rating of 84.2 (17th). The Bills offense is middle of the pack in the league at 17th averaging 351 yards per game, but their defense is second to last at 31st allowing 449 yards against per game. They are also 31st in the league allowing 35.2 points against per game. The Cardinals have opened up the season with a 4-1 record surprising everyone, with their lone loss coming last Thursday. The Cardinals won their first three games as underdogs vs the Seahawks, Patriots, and Eagles and then beat Miami in overtime 24-21 as 4 point favorites. Last Thursday the Cardinals went into Seattle as 2 point favorites and lost 17-3 as they failed to score points when they got into Rams territory. Overall QB Kevin Kolb has been solid for Arizona completing 60.5% of his passes with 7 TDs and just 2 INTs for a QB Rating of 89.7. The Cardinals offense is ranked just 31st in the NFL averaging 273 yards per game, but they haven't needed much offense with their defense being very solid to start the year. Facing some tough offenses the Cardinals are 11th ranked in the league on defense allowing 334 yards against per game, and 5th ranked giving up just 15.6 points against per game. Take note that the Cardinals were 6-2 at home last year, and they've won 8 straight home games as they've started 3-0 at home this year. Arizona is also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Bills were an awful 1-7 on the road last year, and they've lost 8 of their last 9 road games (with their only win coming against the winless Browns this year). Buffalo is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 overall, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a blowout loss of 14+ points, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. On the other hand the Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games coming off a loss. To add to that they've had the extra days rest playing on Thursday last week, and more time to prepare for this home game vs the Bills. The Bills have been awful on the road, while Arizona has proved to be a tough team to beat at home. The Cardinals were embarrassed in a prime time game last week and I expect a big bounce back game on Sunday where they beat the Bills by a touchdown or more.

Cincinnati Bengals -1

The 3-2 Cincinnati Bengals will visit their division rivals in the Cleveland Browns who are a winless 0-5 to start the year. The Bengals opened the season with a 44-13 loss in Baltimore in a Monday Night Primetime game, but have rebounded nicely. The Bengals went on to win three straight vs Cleveland at home, and then Washington and Jacksonville on the road. Over those three wins the Bengals went 2-0-1 ATS. Last week Cincinnati hosted the Miami Dolphins as 3-3.5 point favorites, and went on to lose to 17-13 as the Dolphins solid defense shut them down. It is important to note that the Bengals two losses came against good defenses, while they scored 27+ points in all three wins. The Bengals rank 15th in the league on offense averaging 371 yards per game, and 11th scoring 25 PPG. On defense the Bengals are 18th in the league allowing 348 yards against per game. QB Andy Dalton has been good completing 65.7% of his passes with 9 TDs and 6 INTs for a QB Rating of 92.9. The Cleveland Browns have started the year 0-5 and have been underdogs of 7 or more in 4 of those 5 games. In Week 1 the Eagles scored late to win 17-16 in Cincinnati, they then traveled to Cincinnati losing by 7, hosted Buffalo losing by 10, went into Baltimore on a Thursday Night and lost by 7 points covering the spread, before blowing an early 14-0 lead last week and closing by 14 in New York vs the Giants. The Browns are ranking 24th in the league averaging 324 yards per game on offense, while ranking 21st averaging 20 points per game. Defensively the numbers aren't good for Cleveland as they allow 423 yards against per game (28th) and 27.8 PPG against (25th). Rookie QB Brandon Weeden is completing just 40% of his passes with 5 TDs and 9 INTs for a QB Rating of 64.5 (33rd in the NFL). Take note that the Browns went 4-12 last year, with their 4 wins coming against Jacksonville, Seattle, Miami and Indianapolis - winning those games by an average of just 4 points. The Bengals made the postseason last year in a tough division as they won 9 games, and they enter this game with a winning 3-2 record. They are 2-1 on the road this season, making them 7-4 over the past two years on the road. Last year the Bengals beat Cleveland on the road by 10 points, and then beat them by 3 points at home. They won by 7 points against the Browns at home this year, making it their 4 straight win over Cleveland and 7th win in their last 8 meetings. Take note that the Bengals are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road games ,and 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record. The Browns are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. The Bengals have a good offense and they should be able to take advantage of the young Browns defense that is ranked 28th in the league to date. Cincinnati shouldn't be looking ahead to their meeting with Pittsburgh next week as they are coming off a home loss, and know that they need to take care of Cleveland. I'll go with the better team in this one, as the Browns don't have much of a home field advantage. Cincinnati wins.

Patriots / Seahawks Under 45

Two 3-2 teams will do battle on Sunday as the Patriots head to Seattle. New England is coming off of two straight wins vs Denver and @Buffalo after losing two straight @Baltimore and vs Arizona. The Patriots also opened the season off with a home victory against Tennessee. Seattle opened their season with a loss in Arizona, came home to beat Dallas and Green Bay, and then lost in St Louis before winning in Carolina last week. These are two totally different teams, as the Patriots rely on their offense and the Seahawks rely on their defense. New England is 1st in the league offensively averaging 439 yards per game, and 1st scoring 33 points per game. On the other hand the Seattle Seahawks are 1st in the league defensively averaging 258 yards against per game, and 2nd allowing just 14 points against per game. Offensively Seattle is averaging just 17.2 points per game (28th) and are 27th with 287 yards per game. The Patriots are giving up 22.6 PPG (17th) and 372 yards against per game (20th). Take note that the Seahawks held opponents to just 12 and 7 points in their two home games this year, and those were against two good offenses in Dallas and Green Bay. The totals of those two home games were 34 and 26, with the 26 point total in what really should have been just 19 points scored (with the controversial TD call vs the Packers on the last second hail mary). The Seattle home field advantage is pretty clear, as opponents have a tough time scoring points at Qwest Field. Last season only 2 opponents scored more than 23 points against Seattle at home, with 5 of the 8 teams scoring 19 points or fewer. Note that Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is completing 63.2% of his passes for just 815 yards this year, with 5 TDs and 6 INTs for a 75.2 QB Rating (26th). Tom Brady has never played in Seattle and will be facing the leagues 1st ranked defense. The UNDER is 5-0 in Seahawks games this year, with the highest total being 36. I expect Seattle to be able to contain the Patriots offense and limit their damage, and this game will be unlikely to get over the 45 point total. Take the UNDER.

Wunderdog

Oakland at Atlanta
Pick: Oakland +9

The Oakland Raiders are off a much-needed bye week and head to Atlanta to take on the 5-0 Falcons. Atlanta is getting a huge year out of QB Matt Ryan who leads the NFL in passer rating. While that aspect of the Falcons has been perfect, they simply don't stack up as a 5-0 team. Offensively they are ranked just No. 12 in the league. Defensively they weigh-in at just No. 17, and when you look at those rakings, it doesn't jump out and say 5-0 Super Bowl contender. Those numbers are sure better than Oakland who is ranked No. 25 on both offense and defense. But, that alone doesn't warrant a nearly double-digit line. It is the 5-0 record that is driving up the line, and nearly 80% of the public has taken the bait. The big edge the Raiders have here serves two purposes. Darren McFadden is a quality back, and that is the Falcons Achilles heel, as they have allowed 110+ rushing yards to every team they have faced, despite leading in most of them. A good running game also helps to shorten the game for the Raiders, which makes the points look even sweeter here. Oakland should stay close here.

Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis vs. Miami
Pick: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This number has dipped to 37 at some shops. If you can get this line, I feel that the 'over' is offering us value. At 37.5, I'd probably suggest passing. That half point may not sound like much. It is significant though, particularly when on a "key" number, like 37 ...
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This number has dipped to 37 at some shops. If you can get this line, I feel that the 'over' is offering us value. At 37.5, I'd probably suggest passing. That half point may not sound like much. It is significant though, particularly when on a "key" number, like 37.
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St. Louis games have indeed been low-scoring. However, they're still averaging 38 points per game on the season, 39.5 on the road. Miami scores have been higher. Dolphin games are producing an average of 41.2 points per game, 45.2 here at Miami.
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While two of the Dolphins' three road games have dipped below the number, each of their home games has topped the total. If you can get a line of 37, consider the Over

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland vs. Atlanta
Pick: Oakland
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Oakland is 1-3 SU/ATS. Two weeks ago it lost 37-6 at Denver as a 6.5-point underdog. I believe the bye week could not have come at a more opportune time for this club.
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While some players and teams will use the bye week as a break and go their separate ways, Oakland was focused on practice, obviously no one satisfied with the 1-3 start:
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"You can say, 'I'm going to Vegas and party for four days,' but that's not what this team is about," Raiders' QB Palmer said last week. "Most of the guys are sticking around and are going to come in and work out."
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Palmer also believe's the bye could not have come at a better time:
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"A lot of times byes come so far into the season that you need a break," Palmer continued. "We don't need a break. We're frustrated that we are where we are. We looked at this week as a chance to get better, there are practices to get better, meetings to get better."
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After beating the Steelers, this club definitely took a step backwards last time out. But with the extra week off to prepare, I believe we'll see the same Raiders team that ran roughshod over Pittsburgh.
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The Falcons are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS; last week they held on for a 24-17 win at Washington as 3-point favorites.
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So the big question is: Will Atlanta get caught looking ahead to its bye week next week, and then a trip to Philadelphia on the 28th?
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It's hard to imagine the Falcons won't "look past" this lowly Raiders team.
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While I don't feel that Oakland will win this game outright, I definitely feel it's going to be much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
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I believe this contest sets up nicely as a classic "trap game" for the home side, and will recommend getting down as fast as possible, before this line comes down.
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Consider a second look at the Oakland Raiders this week!

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas vs. BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dallas Cowboys won THREE Super Bowl titles in a four-year span (1992-95) but those glory years are truly a distant memory. Dallas has as many losing seasons the last 15 years (six), as it has playoff appearances (also six). In those six playoff seasons, the Cowboys are a woeful 1-6. Dallas is 2-2 in 2012 and has had a week off since an embarrassing prime-time performance that has fueled plenty of talk the Cowboys could miss the playoffs for a third straight season. Tony Romo matched a career worst with five interceptions in a 34-18 home loss to Chicago on October 1 (MNF), as he and WR Dez Bryant seemed out of sync and the Bears returned two of the picks for TDs. "This has to be a wakeup call for us," Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten said. The good news for Dallas is, the team returns from its bye only one-half game back of Philadelphia and New York in the NFC East. The bad news is, the Cowboys play at Baltimore, where the Ravens haven't lost a regular-season home game in nearly two years (Baltimore has won 13 in a row).
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The Ravens failed to score a TD for the first time in 43 regular-season games last week in a 9-6 win at Kansas City and the defense allowed 214 rushing yards, its most since October of 1997. A quick note regarding Baltimore’s “D,” before getting back to the team's offense. The Ravens have been known for their defense since the team's winning Super Bowl season of 2000. However, there’s been a noticeable shift in 2012. Going back just the last five seasons, Baltimore’s been at the very top of the league in yards allowed, giving up an average of 294.2 YPG in that span. That surely hasn’t been the case in 2012, as Baltimore is allowing almost 100 YPG more, coming in at 379.8 YPG. Baltimore’s offense had plenty of problems last Sunday but it did pick up two key FDs to chew up the final 4:24 of clock. "There are a lot of things we're not pleased with," coach John Harbaugh said. "We're chasing our A-game every week. We want to have our A stuff. It's like a pitcher, we want to have our best stuff every week. We didn't have our best stuff." A return to Baltimore will likely help the Ravens get their swagger back. The Ravens have won 13 straight regular-season home games, the NFL's longest active streak, as Joe Flacco and the offense have looked considerably better in front of their own fans. Baltimore has averaged 32.7 PPG on 457.0 yards with just two turnovers in three home games this season. Meanwhile, in two road games, the Ravens have combined for 32 points (16 per) with an average 311.5 YPG while turning the ball over twice in each contest. Flacco completed 48.1 percent of his passes for a season-low 187 yards in Kansas City last Sunday but is averaging 345.7 passing YPG with six TDs (two INTs) while connecting on 67.5% of his throws in Baltimore's three home games. Let’s NOT forget RB Ray Rice, who finished with a season-best 102 rushing yards on 17 carries last Sunday (note: the Ravens are 10-0 when he runs for at least 100 yards since 2010). Baltimore’s home play has been quite special, as the team has won 30 of 35 home games since the start of the 2008 season and the Ravens own 11 consecutive home wins against the NFC, including 8-0 under John Harbaugh.
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Now I have little doubt the Cowboys will be highly-motivated to win here but in order to do so, Romo and the offense will need to “finish” drives. Romo is completing 66.9 percent of his passes and is on pace for a career-high 4,592 yards passing but he has an NFC-high eight interceptions, only two fewer than he had in 522 attempts last season. He’s surely NOT helped by a running game which entered Week 6 ranked 29th in the NFL with an average of 67.8 YPG. DeMarco Murray ran for 131 yards on 20 carries in a season-opening 24-17 victory over the Giants but he's since been held to 106 on 41 attempts (2.6 YPC)! Add it all up and while Dallas averages a respectable 364.0 YPG, the Cowboys are averaging only 16.3 PPG, better than only Philly (16.0) and Jacksonville (13.0). I don’t believe the Cowboys will be able to slow down Flacco and Co. here at home (remember that 32.7 PPG average!). With Pittsburgh losing Thursday at Tennessee (now just 2-3), the 4-1 Ravens see an opportunity to go up 2 1/2 games on the Steelers in the division with a win. They’ll likely NOT miss that opportunity and I’m calling for a 14th straight home win with “room to spare.”

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Detroit vs. PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lions hopefully used an extra week off to address their not-so-special teams after they’ve allowed key punt returns for touchdowns in each of the last two games. As a result, last year’s playoff team is 1-3 to start the season and wondering if 2011 wasn’t a fluke after all. We do know the Motor City men are 5-1 ATS in games against the NFC East since the arrival of QB Matthew Stafford to the team. Our database informs us that 0-4 ATS non-division dogs in Game Five of the season are 13-7-1 ATS since 1980, including 7-1-1 ATS the last nine. Detroit is also 18-6 ATS as dogs of less than 11 points when taking the field off a double-digit spread loss and facing an opponent off a loss. With the Eagles having trouble getting their No. 30 scoring offense untracked (averaging just 16 PPG) and Philly just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS against the NFC North the last three years, look for the well-rested Lions to show signs of waking up as Andy Reid’s penchant for close call games (four of six contests decided by a total of 6 points this season) continues today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

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Buffalo vs. Arizona
Pick: BuffaloFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo is coming off two straight blowout losses and last week was a flat out embarrassment. The Bills not only lost by 42 points, they were outgained 621-204 which is an incredibly margin in the NFL. The public is down on Buffalo right now as it should be but that only puts more value on Buffalo this week. The Bills were defeated the last two weeks by teams that have legitimate shot of not only going to the Super Bowl but winning it so they take a big step down in class this week.
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Arizona has had some extra time off following its loss last Thursday at St. Louis which was its first loss of the season. I played against the Cardinals in that game as I felt they were a huge fraud at 4-0 and I still think they are a huge fraud at 4-1. they did outgain the Rams but it was by only 40 yards and they were outgained in all of their other four games so the wins have been very suspect. Heading back home helps but getting up for a team that has lost its last two games by 66 points will be a challenge.
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What has happened to the Bills defense? After allowing a combined 348.7 ypg through its first three games the Buffalo defense gave up a combined 1,201 yards against the Patriots and 49ers. Those are numbers bad college teams allow, not teams from the NFL. The Bills now finally catch a break facing the Arizona offense which is 31st overall and 25th in scoring. The Cardinals have been very inconsistent in the passing game and at this point, they have no rushing game to speak of.
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The Cardinals defense has been pretty solid for the most part but they have played some weak offensive teams in the majority of their games. Buffalo has an offense that can move the ball and put up points although we certainly didn't see it last week however that was against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Buffalo has been a good rebounding team as it is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after putting up 250 or fewer yards in its previous game so we should see another bounceback effort here.
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Buffalo falls into a couple great situations. First we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 that are coming off a road loss. This situation is 89-45 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. Also, we play against favorites after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 37-12 ATS (75.5 percent) since 1983.

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Buffalo vs. Arizona
Pick: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals are 4-1 to the Under this year thanks to a very sluggish offense and a top notch defense. They managed just three points last week at St Louis and average just 4.3 yards per play offensively, the worst statistical attack in the NFL so far this season. When your offense has weaker numbers than Jacksonville, it speaks volumes, especially when we’re looking at a total in the mid-40’s on Sunday.
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Why is the total so high here? Simple – because the Bills have been playing Over football from Day 1 this yearl, 4-1 to the Over through their first five games. The Bills defense has been gashed for 90 points in their last six quarters of football, blown out by the Patriots and 49ers. Clearly, after facing those two potent offenses, this is a big step down in class for Buffalo’s stop unit.
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But the real key here is the Bills offensive line injuries; a major setback for a Buffalo offense that hung at least 24 points in every game prior to last week’s debacle at San Fran. Eric Wood is hurt, as is Chad Rinehart, both very questionable on Sunday. Collin Brown went on IR this week and Kraig Urbik is out this week. That’s a real cluster injury problem up front against a top notch stop unit; not the recipe for offensive fireworks by any stretch of the imagination. Take the Under.

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New England vs. Seattle
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The NFL’s #1 offense will take on the #1 defense Sunday when the New England Patriots 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS travel west to Washington to face off with the Seattle Seahawks 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS.
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The Patriots (1-1 ATS road) are averaging an NFL best 33 PPG and 439.4 YPG. QB Tom Brady has had another great start to the season in 2012, completing 67% of his passes for 1,450 yards with 8 TD and just 1 INT. He has a QB rating of 102.8.
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Overall the offense is 1st in total yards (2,197) 3rd in rush yards (827) and 8th in pass yards (1,370).
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DE Chandler Jones leads the defense with 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. They have allowed an average of 22.6 PPG (16th), 290 pass yards per game (4th) and 82.2 rush yards per game (8th).
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The Pats haven't lost ATS on the road since October of last season. It's October in Seattle and they are overdue.
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The Seattle Seahawks picked up a big 16-12 win on the road last week in Carolina. QB Russell Wilson has been average for Seattle, posting a QB rating of 75.3 and throwing for 815 yards with 5 TD and 6 INT. RB Marshawn Lynch has been a beast, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 100+ YPG.
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DE Chris Clemons has been solid, picking up 5.5 sacks and 1 FF through the first 5 games. Overall the defense has been top notch. They are 2nd in PPG allowed (14), 1st in total yards allowed (258.6), 3rd in rush yards allowed (66.6) and 4th in pass yards allowed (4th).
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The Hawks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home including the last 5 consecutive.
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Of note, the Patriots were held to 18 points at home against Arizona in a 20-18 loss. The Hawks defense is comparable to the Cardinals while the Hawks home field advantage is considered the best in NFL. No crowd is louder than the 12th man in Seattle, I've witnessed it myself, its amazing.
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While Brady is one of the best ever and will be up to the challenge of the loud crowd, is his offensive line up to the challenge of the Seahawks awesome pass rush?
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The Hawks stuffed the Packers high octane offense on Sept 24th for 8 sacks in the first half until Rodgers was forced to hand off to Cedric Benson in the second half. Seattle won that game 14-12 at home. The Packers offense is comparable to the Patriots. They are both pass first mentalities, expect the Pats to be forced to run the ball in this game.
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It is cold and wet in Seattle these days with an 80% chance of rain for this matchup. Look for a heavy dose of the ground game from Seattle which will slow the game down and keep it close. With the home team as the dog +3.5 points. Take Seattle to win ATS