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Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Washington Redskins
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Given the injuries to Washington quarterback Robert Griffin, III and the Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, there has yet to be a line established for this game. Thursday morning revealed an injury report showing RG3 as questionable with a concussion, but has been given medical clearance to practice. Peterson is listed as probable with an ankle sprain. So, more than likely both star players will be competing Sunday afternoon.
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Based on the Thursday injury report, I would install Washington as a two point favorite for this game. Now, I think Washington will win this game convincingly, but should RG3 not play, the line may be in the pick-em level. This actually provides for a greater opportunity playing Washington and I will explain why.
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Cousins would start in pace of RG3 and he is not your everyday backup NFL quarterback. First, he is a very capable rookie with elite athleticism and above average arm. He showed some of his talents in the Falcons game, but his inexperienced saw him forcing some balls into tight windows. Yet, he did very well coming into a game cold and habving to get to NFL speed immediately.
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Washington?s offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, will change the offensive scheme a bit no matter, which rookie quarterback is under center. The Redskins rank fourth in the NFL averaging 166 yards rushing per game and RG3 contributes a lot to that total with his carries and just being on the field stretching the defense. Cousins has similar abilities, but here using the TE in slant and hook patterns will work well against a seven or possibly even eight man Vikings defensive front.
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Alfred Morris, also a rookie, has established himself as a NFL running back. he gained 115 yards in Week 5 and despite the Vikings stout run defense, I believe he will be close to a 100 yards rushing in this game. The reason is that Washington will run a pass first, run second scheme. This will force the Vikings to back off the eight men in the box defensive front to respect the pass play.
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In turn, the Redskins can use three and four wide receiver sets that will open up the middle of the field for Morris. He is excellent at getting past the first defensive layer being patient in setting up his blockers and then is elusive enough to gain extra yards against the second tier of linebackers.
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The Vikings defense ends in Jarrod Allen and Brian Robinson are arguably the best in the game. However, their athleticism, will be minimized somewhat having to maintain gap discipline on the perimeter and not allow either quarterback to extend plays by not holding containment. This factor also keeps the power run plays between the tackles available for Morris to pound the ball. Misdirection run plays will be highly effective if Allen and Robinson get too far up field on passing downs.
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New England Patriots -3.5
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Since suffering back-to-back defeats, the Patriots has responded with back-to-back impressive wins. I expect them to keep right on rolling in Seattle as the Seahawks don't have the offense to keep pace.
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The Seahawks are 27th in the NFL in total offense with 287.2 yards per game and 28th in scoring with 17.2 points per game. The Patriots, meanwhile, are No. 1 in both total and scoring offense with 439.4 yards and 33.0 points per contest.
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The only think Seattle does well offensively is run the football. Unfortunately, nobody has had much success running on New England this season. The Pats rank 8th in the NFL against the run with 82.8 yards allowed per game.
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The Seahawks lead the league in total defense, but they are yet to see an offensive attack like New England brings to the table. Unlike last season, the Pats also have an explosive running game to go with their precision passing attack.
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The Patriots are 4-1 ATS this season and have long been a quality road investment. They are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 road games. New England is also an awesome 30-15 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less under coach Bill Belichick.
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The Seahawks are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a win and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens
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The Cowboys are averaging just 17.2 PPG, have only 261 YR this season, and Romo has been picked off 8 times. The team has failed to cover their L3, all as a favorite. In comes the 4-1 (SU) Ravens. Baltimore is averaging 32.6 PPG at home TY. Ray Rice has 419 YR. The RB will get back a key part of his OL in NT, Jay Ratliff. Joe Flacco has been solid with 1456 YP and 7 TDs. Chicago and Seattle does not have the QB or ground game that Baltimore possesses and Dallas has allowed those teams to combine for 61 points on their "D". The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS their L7 games played on the road, 2-7 ATS their L9 games played in October, and 1-5 ATS their L6 games played overall. Take Baltimore.
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New York Jets -3
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The New York Jets are showing solid value as only a 3-point home favorite against the Indianapolis Colts Sunday. This is a huge game for the Jets, and a big letdown spot for the Colts at the same time.
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New York has lost two straight to fall to 2-3 on the season. It cannot afford to fall to 2-4 if it wants to make a playoff run. Both Stephen Hill and Dustin Keller are expected to return this week, giving Mark Sanchez some much-needed weapons.
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This is a letdown spot for the Colts because they are coming off a very emotional 30-27 home win over the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. They were playing for head coach Chuck Pagano, who is in the hospital battling cancer. Off such a huge win, it would only be human nature for them to let down in this spot.
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The Jets are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games off a home loss. New York is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 Sunday games following a Monday night game. The Colts are 0-12 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. Indianapolis is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 meetings in New York. Bet the Jets Sunday.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cincinnati Bengals
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What we want to do in this game is play against home teams like the Browns that are home dogs in divisional play if they are off back to back road dog losses, vs an opponent off a loss. These home teams are a solid 83% Play against long term. The Browns are 1-4 ats as a home dog of 3 or less and have lost 16 of the last 20 vs winning teams. They have revenge in this one but have lost 11 of the last 12 when avenging a prior loss. The Bengals have won and covered 3 of 4 as a road favorite of 3 or less. What can Brown do for you? Not much today. Were backing the Bengals.
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St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins
Pick: St. Louis Rams
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St. Louis has won 3 of 4 games under new coach Jeff Fisher, who is one of the best in the game. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and the defense is much improved, allowing 13 and 3 points the last two games. They've also had extra time to prepare after a win over Arizona, 17-3, on Thursday. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They take on a weak Miami offense and a suspect secondary ranked 26th. And the Dolphins are 22-50-1 ATS in their last 73 home games! Play the Rams.
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Patriots at Seahawks
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We will go against the public and take the OVER in this matchup. The Seattle D has made a name for themselves, especially at home with the extremely loud home advantage, a tough run D and the twin towers at CB, both over 6'3 inches, however New England, possibly with their two tight end set back in full operation with Aaron Hernandez activated, are just the team to match up with this stingy Seattle defensive unit. New England is averaging 33 pts per game, and seemingly get stronger as the game progresses. The new fast paced offensive gameplay takes advantage of three different NE runningbacks and is averaging 165 yards rushing per game on the ground to go along with 274 through the air. Aside from the 20-18 loss at home to Arizona thanks to a missed FG as time expired, the Pats have put up at least 30 points in each game, including 52 at Buffalo. The New England defense has also given up at least three touchdowns in each of the last three games, so while we may see a quick lead by Tom Brady and co, the defense may give points back to the Seattle squad that is only averaging 17 points per game. If Seattle can keep up an average output or better we will see this one creep over the number.
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Kansas City +4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The line has been pushed up a bit with Brady Quinn getting the start. Quinn has never been very good in the NFL. He's been nothing but a conservative, checkdown type of quarterback. But in a matchup where points are going to be hard to come by, Quinn is exactly the type of quarterback the Chiefs need.
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Kansas City has outgained its opponents by 415 yards. They've won the time of possession in all but one of their games. This is impressive considering the Chiefs have played a number of strong offenses and quarterbacks in going up against Atlanta, New Orleans, Baltimore and San Diego.
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So why are the Chiefs a miserable 1-4? They are a staggering minus 15 in turnover ratio. Matt Cassel was a big reason for that with 13 turnovers, including a terrible goal line fumble last week that probably cost the Chiefs a straight-up win against Baltimore.
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Tampa Bay is 1-3. They are more disciplined and better coached than last season under first-year taskmaster Greg Schiano. But the Buccaneers don't have the Chiefs' talent having lost their best offensive lineman, Darvin Joseph, and one of their best defensive players, end Adrian Clayborn, for the season. The Buccaneers have been outgained in every one of their games. If it weren't for a plus 3 turnover edge they likely wouldn't have covered a game all season.
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The Bucs are going to be as conservative as the Chiefs with their erratic quarterback Josh Freeman. There is going to be a lot of running and the Chiefs hold a huge edge with Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs rank No. 2 in rushing averaging 180.8 yards per game on the ground. Charles is first in the league in rushing and total yards from scrimmage. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and looks to be 100 percent from last year's season-ending knee injury.
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Tampa Bay ranks 27th in yards given up and is 30th in total offense. They don't have the skill position talent Kansas City does.
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The Chiefs are better defensively than they've shown. Their offense has put their defense in tough holes due to frequent turnovers. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are one of the better duo pass rushers in the NFL. The underrated Houston has 13 1/2 sacks going back to Game 13 of last year. No player has more sacks during this time frame.
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Kansas City +4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are going right back to the Chiefs after they won as out Game of the Month last week. If KC could cut down on all the damn turnovers, they would be a pretty good team! Despite bad turnovers on drives against a solid Ravens team last Sunday, Kansas City STILL almost won the game outright. We are fine with Brady Quinn at the helm and have heard good things about him running the offense, so not concerned about the swap at QB. With 338 yards of offense, the Chiefs could only put up SIX TOTAL POINTS. Even with the TOs we think the Chiefs are the right side, so if they can finally hold onto the ball the KC offense should score some points on Tampa Bay and easily cover with the 4 points.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
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Arizona without their two top rushers makes them one dimensional which is always dangerous.While Buffalo did get crushed versus power houses New England and San Francisco those games did look closer than the scores reflected.Take Buffalo to cover the 4 as your freeplay winner because since 1992 they are 17-7 versus the Nfc West Division opponents.
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HOUSTON -3½ -103 over Green Bay
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If you’re waiting for the Packers to get back to their 15-1 form from a year ago, don’t hold your breath. Was blowing a 21-3 to the inexperienced Colts just a fluke or a sign of things to come? We’re thinking the latter. Green Bay appears confused. They’ve lost their identity. The coach seems unsure. The offensive line is troubled. There is no running game to speak of and the secondary can’t seem to cover people. All of that does not bode well when playing the current odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.
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The Texans are for real. They have not allowed more than two scores to any opposing quarterback and after five games, no running back has scored a rushing touchdown. Better yet, there have only been two touchdowns given up to any wide receivers and none of them had more than 50 receiving yards in Houston. They are strong throughout and they now get a national stage to flaunt their stuff for a home audience. The Packers are still a public team. Oddsmakers know that and the line reflects it. This is a cheap price for a superior team facing a team that has more reputation than skill.
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Buffalo +4½ -102 over ARIZONA
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The Bills have been bad. Brutally bad. 97-31 bad over their past two games. But those two contests took place against the Patriots and 49ers, two of the best teams in football. The best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping off. Buy low we always preach. As we venture through October, things typically start to stabilize.
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Arizona has had some favorable bounces. Three of their four wins have been by three or less points, including one in overtime. As a favorite, they are high risk with an abysmal running game that ranks 31st in the league (63 yds. per game) and an inept passing game. Much can be attributed to Arizona’s putrid offensive line that has its quarterbacks being batted around like piñatas. That should inspire Buffalo’s defense, a unit that has come under severe scrutiny and criticism. Against this weak Cardinals’ offensive line, the Bills have an opportunity to silence said critics. Buffalo wisely chose to stay out west after playing at San Francisco. A confining week away allows the Bills to avoid dealing with home fans and media while allowing the coaching staff to fix some things. Definite upset possibility.
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Indianapolis +3 +108 over N.Y. JETS
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Did you hear the one about the Jets being favored? Monday’s semi-respectful loss to the Texans has allowed New York to be lined up this way but the multitude of issues remains and requiring them to win, let alone by a margin, has to be ill advised. The Jets best offensive play of the first half On Monday was when Sanchez was stripped of the ball and newly acquired Lex Hilliard picked up the fumble and ran about four times longer than Shonn Greene’s average carry. Coach Rex Ryan is beginning to cave on the quarterback situation. Having Mark Sanchez is bad enough. Having Sanchez without viable playmakers is insurmountable. No matter what you see or hear, Tim Tebow would be worse.
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The Colts are feeling good about themselves after climbing a mountain to defeat the Packers. Andrew Luck has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. The Colts will take to the road for first time since week one and are much more prepared to do so. Give us the superior quarterback, the inspired team and a few points to go with it and we’ll gladly take a position.
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CLEVELAND +2 -105 over Cincinnati
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The strain of losing is no fun but the Browns have been in every game this year outside of week one loss against Cincinnati. They were in that game for the first half. The difference this time is the venue and the fact that all the 0-5 Browns’ rookies are a month more experienced. Brandon Weeden lends hope as a NFL calibre pivot, something that’s been absent in Cleveland for years. He’s thrown in around 300 yards three times this year including 322 yards and two scores in Cincinnati without the availability of NFL-quality receivers. That said, Weeden found a couple of fresh targets last week that actually caught the ball. The Brownies are on the verge of a win.
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Andy Dalton has calmed down from his initial 300 yard, three touchdown games in Weeks 2 & 3. Against the Jaguars, he only threw for 244 yards and two scores and then 234 yards with one touchdown against the Dolphins. We think Cincy is more sizzle than steak and with the glaring defensive issues plaguing this Cincinnati team we’re not comfortable spotting anything with them on the road, especially in a division matchup against a team they're sick of losing to. No units risked.
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Kansas City +4½ -104 over TAMPA BAY
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The Chiefs are currently boasting -15 turnover ratio. Who knew it went that high? While not all of it is QB Matt Cassel’s fault, he is shelved this week and Brady Quinn will get the start. A fresh face may help.
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Josh Freeman twice has failed to top 140 yards passing in a game. He has halted his own rushing attempts in an attempt to focus on his aerial game. That isn’t working out very well. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback, lacking a supporting ground game and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack. Besides, never a good idea to giving away points with a team that has one win in its past 14 games. No units risked.
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Oakland +9 -105 over ATLANTA
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The NFL is a sport that is both physically and mentally exhausting. It has been proven time and time again that it’s near impossible to maintain peak levels over a 16-game schedule. Upsets happen all the time in both college and the NFL when a seemingly easy target comes to town. The big chalk consciously or subconsciously takes a breather and before they know it, they’re in a fight that they were not quite prepared for. Don’t be surprised to see the Falcons fall prey to this.
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The Falcons are feeling much love with their unblemished record and quality play. Atlanta’s huge division lead and upcoming week off could create some complacency. Oakland has had an extra week to right some wrongs and should be ready to go here. Every season the Raiders pull off an unlikely upset or come very close to doing so. This one sets up just right for them to put a scare into the host. No units risked.
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Dallas +3½ -104 over BALTIMORE
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The Cowboys started strongly, manhandling the Giants in season opener. It’s been topsy-turvy since but maybe Dallas best after rest. Cowboys are 7-1 against spread after a break and the underdog in Dallas games has been inordinately good.
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Baltimore sputtering a bit with strenuous efforts over lowly Chiefs and Browns. They’ve also allowed three passers (Dalton, Weeden and Brady) to exceed 320 yards and Tony Romo is quite capable of the same. Outside of week one win over Cincinnati, the Ravens have been anything but impressive. Until we see something different out of this aging group, we’re not comfortable spotting points with them against a potentially dangerous opponent. No units risked.
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PHILADELPHIA -3½ +102 over Detroit
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Tough one as the Eagles can’t score and the Lions can’t stop anyone. The Eagles are 3-2 overall but have been held to fewer than 20 in all but one game. The 1-3 Lions come off their bye having last lost to the visiting Vikings in a game that more or less confirmed that these are not the same Lions as 2011 group.
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Both squads have been wallet guzzlers, a combined 7-24 versus the number. Lions still too sloppy to endorse while Eagles figure to break out of their offensive doldrums against one of the weakest defenses a team can face. Remember Detroit’s 44-41 loss to the Titans? No units risked.
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MIAMI -3½ -110 over St. Louis
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Rams breathing the sweet air of a winning record for first time in six years but we’re not sure how long that will last. The Rams are still winless on the road and the loss of their best receiver will be more impactful on the road. Rams also in a letdown spot after consecutive home wins against offensively challenged Seahawks and Cardinals, the latter in prime time.
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Rams now travel to hot and stuffy Florida to face an improving Miami squad that is anxious to be home after two away. Fish could easily be 4-1 after difficult losses to both Jets and Cardinals. The Dolphins need a win here to reach .500 heading into their bye next week and this should be a very winnable game against a team with little offense like the Raiders, who showed up and were sent packing. No units risked.
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N.Y. Giants +6½ -106 over SAN FRAN
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The 49ers are on such a well-balanced roll that it is hard to remember that only three weeks ago they were spanked by the Vikings. Trap game aside, these 49ers are on a warpath this year. They’ve won consecutive games by a combined 79-3. Not only is this not the Jets or Bills visiting but when a club puts up big offensive scores in back-to-back weeks, you will subsequently pay a premium to wager on them and that seldom comes recommended.
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You’ll also hear and read about San Fran’s revenge factor after they lost to these Giants in last year’s classic NFC Championship game. That won’t bother the G-Men as they are 16-4 against the number versus teams looking to avenge a previous encounter. Eli Manning is still putting up outstanding numbers and New York is at its best when expected to lose. Taking a near touchdown with SB champs? What? No units risked.
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SEATTLE +3½ -110 over New England
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Much like the Niners, New England has put up eye-opening scores the past two weeks with 83 points scored. Offense attracts bettors, the odds makers know it, we know it and we also know to not get too caught up in it. Let’s not ignore that the Pats also gave up 31 points to the Ravens, 28 to the Bills and this is their fourth road game in the first six weeks.
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The Bermuda Triangle has nothing on CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Stronger teams cross into the northwest and die here as the Seahawks’ 12-2-1 home underdog record will attest to. New England’s offensive line will be tested in this matchup and if Seattle’s pass rushers are as good as advertised, this will be a game. No units risked.
Jesse Schule
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St. Louis vs. San Francisco
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The Cardinals and the Giants begin the NL championship series in San Francisco tonight. Both teams can consider themselves fortunate to be here, with the Giants storming back from a 2-0 deficit against Cincinnati, and the Cardinals rallying in the 9th inning in Washington to mount their improbable comeback.
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Lance Lynn will get the nod for St. Louis tonight, and he has been working out of the bullpen so far in the playoffs. Lynn (18-7, 3.78 ERA) was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of the season, however he has struggled down the stretch. He only faced one batter in his last appearance against the Nationals, and he would get credit with a loss after giving up a solo home run that saw the Nationals win the game 2-1.
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He gave up a pair of homers over four innings in his previous appearance in the series against the Nats. He's 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA against the Giants this year, after just one previous start.
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Madison Bumgarner will be on the mound for San Francisco, and he has also struggled in recent starts. He got roughed up in his final start of the regular season, allowing five runs on four hits over four innings in a 7-3 loss to the Padres. He was then roughed up again when he started against the Reds in the ALDS. He went just 4.1 innings, allowing four runs on seven hits in a 9-0 loss.
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With these two struggling hurlers facing each other, we can expect a few runs scored in San Fran tonight.
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Dallas vs. Baltimore
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Dallas is fresh and ready coming off their bye week. The Cowboys were embarrassed at home in their last game on Monday night. They lost to the Bears 34-18 after they turned the ball over 5 times in that game. Dallas is just 2-2 on the season as they’ve alternated wins and losses. But the Cowboys have played better than that record indicates. Dallas owns a terrific defense that is allowing just 278 yards per game on 5.1 yards per play. Their problem has been their offensive miscues; the Cowboys have a -7 turnover margin. In their two losses, they’ve turned the ball over 7 times while only creating 1 turnover for themselves. But with the week off, we assume Dallas made some corrections and we anticipate them firing their best shot in this game.
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Baltimore comes into this game with a 4-1 record. But aside from playing the Patriots, the Ravens have played an extremely weak schedule thus far. Three of their five games have been decided by 3 points or less so there’s little room for error right now for Baltimore. Their offense is much improved, but their defense has gone backwards; they are allowing 379 yards per game on 5.4 yards per play. Their secondary has been torched for 7.3 yards per play, and Dallas QB Tony Romo should hit plenty of big plays downfield. Baltimore has a much bigger game on deck with the Texans, and with Dallas in a good scheduling spot, we’ll take the points with the road underdog.
Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Cleveland Browns
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The Browns are banged up, but so is Cincinnati. Unimpressed with the Bengals, and I'm not sure they rate the road chalk role against anyone, even 0-5 Cleveland. I'll tab the Browns to get their first win.