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Philadelphia -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Detroit fall from grace continues. Following a 17-3 ATS run up, Detroit enters this matchup, with a week of rest on negative runs of 3-13 ATS and 1-10 ATS. They are quite simply OVERVALUED because of the presence on offense with QB Stafford and an overhyped defensive front. The numbers say that Detroit gains just 22% of their yards on the ground at 90/3.6 while their defense is allowing 29 PPG. The Eagles show far better numbers and are due for correction. In underperforming the 1st 5 weeks, 4/5 of their games have been decided by 2 or less points. That is in no small part the function of QB Vick who has thrown 6 INTs and had 5 fumbles. He is a huge contributor to the -9 net TO margin of the Eagles which is 2nd worst in the league, and clearly due for correction. With a run game that averages 135/4.5 and a pass defense that is among the league leaders at 53%/5.7DYPA, they have the ideal tools to profit from this matchup. A value price, 3 points below the opener, clinches our selection. Don't miss my NFL 3* Game of the Month "Take O
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Kansas City +4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Kansas City Chiefs continue to play well on the defensive side of the football. The losses have been due to the offense's 19 turnovers. But KC does get a new signal caller with the injury to Matt Cassel. While Brady Quinn is not a legitimate NFL starting QB for a long period of time, he isn't any worse than Cassel. After all, Cassel has been an interception waiting to happen in 2012. Quinn very well may be an upgrade with the way Cassel has played in 2012. The offense just needs to hang onto the ball - they're the NFL's 4th ranked unit in total yards per game. KC's defense checks-in 10th in the NFL in the same category, and will face the league's 30th ranked offense and 27th ranked defense in this one. Eliminate the ridiculous amount of turnovers and Kansas City is the better team...and they're getting points. I'm taking those points with the Chiefs on Sunday.
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Bengals / Browns Under 43.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I expect this divisional game to turn into a dogfight. Cleveland will be fighting for their first win of the season, while Cincinnati can't afford to lose for the second week in a row if they want to reach the playoffs this season. If we add the fact that the wind will be blowing at 20mph during the whole game, then we have the right ingredients for this game to turn into a very physical game and with both defenses being able to limit the offensive production of their opponents.
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Brandon Weeden continues to be able to have some good yardage on his passing game, however he also keeps making some silly mistakes that eventually end up being turnovers. The Browns' Offensive Line has been quite reasonable this season, however they will be facing one of the best pass rushing teams in the league, therefore I expect to see Weeden being hurried and even sacked several times during this game. With Cleveland missing three wide receivers for this game (Mohamed Massaquoi, Jordan Norwood and Travis Benjamin), I believe Brandon Weeden will have a very tough game, especially when the Bengals' secondary has been improving over the past few games, after a very poor start of the season. In terms of the running game, Trent Richardson has been quite inconsistent and unable to have some huge plays, therefore I believe the Bengals run defense will also be able to limit him today, especially when they are coming from an excellent performance against the dangerous Dolphins' running game.
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Andy Dalton has been having a good season, with some excellent combinations with A.J. Green, however Cleveland has a pass defense that is in the league's average for now and therefore, they should be able to limit the Bengals' production today in the passing game, especially with the wind causing problems to Dalton. To make things worse for the Bengals, their Offensive Line continues to have problems and Cleveland has a decent pass rush to take advantage of that. In terms of the running game, the Browns have been quite poor on run defense, however the Bengals' running game is equally poor and they just got even poorer by losing Bernard Scott for the season. BerJarvus Green-Ellis won't be able to put the Browns' defense in huge trouble on his own today.
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Therefore, I expect both teams to have problems on offense. Cleveland should struggle in all areas on offense, while Cincinnati might have one or two big passing plays and that would be it. I'm expecting this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
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Lions / Eagles Over 47.5
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Both these teams allowed the fewest points that they have allowed all season in their last game and both lost straight up -- the Eagles 16-14 to the Steelers and the Lions 20-16 to the Vikings. We expect a high-scoring affair here.
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The Eagles are 14-0 OU after they held their previous opponent to fewer than 23 points as an underdog.
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Detroit is 17-0 OU off of any Sunday game in which they allowed fewer than 23 points.
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Detroit is in a desperate spot. They are off their bye week and they have lost and failed to cover three straight. Their defense has allowed an average of 35.5 ppg this season on the road so they are not going to win this one by a score of something like 13-10. They are going to have the throw the ball down the field to have any chance to win.
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The league as a whole is 9-0 OU (+10.7 ppg) recently as a road dog when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. This one was active when the Saints went into Green Bay and lost 27-28 in week 4 this season.
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Finally, it is worth mentioning that the league as a whole is 13-0 OU on the road when the OU line is at least 42 and they play on Monday Night the following week.
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This one is already 2-0 OU this season. Take these two OVER.
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MTi's FORECAST: Detroit 31 PHILADELPHIA 28
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St Louis/ Miami Under 38: . The Dolphins are the top team in the league vs the rush and with the Rams needing the running game to be successful, I just don’t see how they will move the ball, especially with Bradford hitting just 57.5% of his pass and their top WR (Amendola) out. On the other side of the ball the Rams have played solid defense, allowing just 18.8 ppg, 218 ypg through the air and just 6 yards per attempt (7th in the league) and they will not let Ryan Tannehill a bunch of easy throws down the field. If Miami scores, it will be on time consuming drives. Both teams will have to really work the ball down the field. No easy scores here as these two defenses are very tough and these two offenses are below average. 30 points tops here.
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New England -3 over SEATTLE: I know this is a tough scheduling spot as the Pats are are off a big game with Denver and have had to travel cross country, but this is not an ideal spot for the Seahawks as they are off BB long trips, which included a trip to Carolina last week and they have a big conference game at San Francisco on Thursday coming up. Add all that together and I feel that it all evens out. The Patriots offense has been on fire of late as they have 113 points the last 3 weeks and they have been doing it both on the ground and through the air. Yes the Seattle defense has been strong this year, but 4 of the 5 teams they have played currently rank 25th or worst in scoring. They did have a good game vs Green Bay, but we have also seen that this is not a normal Green Bay offense this year. The Seattle defense hasn't been tested all that much this year, but they will today and I don't think they will pass the test. The Patriot defense is improved this year as they rank 21st in total defense, compared to 31st last year and while still not great they are facing a pretty weak Seattle offense that is scoring just 17.8 ppg. BOTH teams are traveling from the east coast and with New England being in that zone again vs a Seattle team that won't be able to match them point for point, I'll look for the Pats to win this one by DD. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 1992 the Patriots are 23-6 ATS when playing off a game in which they had 175+ rushing yards.
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NY JETS -3 over Indianapolis: Last week the Colts played a very emotional game for coach Pagano, who has been diagnosed with Leukemia and now they must travel to take on a Jets squad that is playing their 3rd home game in a row. The Colts came back from 21-3 down to win last weeks game and they used allot of emotion and energy in that game and may just not be ready for this game. They are a young team and it is hard for young team to get up after such an emotional game the week before. The Jets are a team that looked much better on Monday night then they had and Sanchez performed well under the pressure he was on. The Jet defense also played well in the game and should be able to slow down Luck and the Colt offense in this one. New York needs this one bad and will not lose 3 home games in a row. i look for them to get a big win over this emotionally drained Colts squad.
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Dallas/ Baltimore Over 44: I had the Over in the KC/ Baltimore game last week and it was a stinker. I expect better results this week. The Dallas offense has weapons and I feel that Romo can get them the ball, especially vs this aging Baltimore defense. The Raven defense has allowed just 17.8 ppg, but 380 yards per game, including 261 ypg through the air. The Dallas offense has had some problems scoring but they still can throw the ball (296 ypg) and should move the ball pretty easily vs this weak Baltimore pass defense. The Baltimore offense has been clicking for the most part and will use the no-huddle once again and that should NOT eat allot of clock. The Ravens come in averaging 26 ppg and 281 ypg passing and should put up some points on this pretty solid Dallas defense that really hasn't been tested yet. This game should see allot of balls in the air and that should lead to plenty of points being scored by both teams.
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Kansas City/ Tampa Bay Under 40.5: Run, run, run. That's what I expect from both teams in this one. Brady Quinn is in at QB for Kansas City and I can't see him being asked to do much, especially with the power running game that The Chiefs have. KC comes in averaging 180 ypg on the ground at 5.2 ypc, but I do not expect allot of big runs here vs a Tampa defense that has allowed just 73.8 ypg and 3.2 ypc. Even at Rutgers Schiano had great run defenses and he does here as well. That should force Quinn into some long yardage situations and I don't expect him to convert on many of those. The Tampa offense is pretty weak as they come in averaging just 276 ypg, including 91 ypg on the ground. They should get some chances to run the ball in this one as the Chiefs allow 121 ypg on the ground and 4.4 ypc. Schiano plays his games close to the vest, while on the other side I don't expect Quinn to be asked to do much. Allot of running and defense in this game should keep this game in the low 30's at best.
Bob Balfe
Jets -3.5 over Colts
The Colts are coming off such an emotional victory in which they battled back from a huge halftime hole that I just don't think the intensity is going to be there today like it was at home a week ago. The Jets are a dangerous football team because they are in desperation mode and are starting to get a few guys back into the lineup. The Colts have a talent QB in Andrew Luck, but he is just a rookie and never has won on the road. Indy is pretty banged up in the running game and on defense. Its easy to remember what the Colts did last week, but the Packers are not the same team as in the past few seasons and today has nothing to do with last Sunday. I think the Jets will win pretty easily. Take New York.
Art Aronson
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Buffalo vs. Arizona
Pick: Buffalo
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Everyone is very much done on the Buffalo Bills right now, that’s why there is some good value in them this week.
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The Bills have not looked good the last few weeks, losing blowout games both at home and on the road. I think it’s important to remember that they were playing the New England Patriots and the San Francisco 49ers. The Pats and the 49ers are considered Super bowl favorites. While the Bills should never be confused with being a contender for the big game, they surely aren’t as bad as they have shown the past few weeks.
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“We have the talent,” Bill’s QB Ryan Fitzpatrick said. "That's something we know we have."
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I think we see the Bills offense get shut down again like we saw last week in San Fran.
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The Arizona Cardinals are a team that don’t score that much, they are averaging just 18.8 points this year. They have their fair share of troubles as we saw in their last game against the Rams. Injuries to their running backs have them down to their third string runner. Remember: the Bills have been outgained in yardage in their last four games. Their offensive line was not good against the Rams, leaving Kevin Kolb to see pressure all game. If the Bills put together any sort of a pass rush, they could very much be in this game.
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I like the Cardinals more as an underdog than a favorite. Arizona is just 0-2 ATS as the favorite and 4-7 ATS in the last three years.
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Teams in the NFL have a way of bouncing back, coming off a double digit loss, even on the road. Road under dogs off back-to-back ATS losses of 20 or more are 17-6 ATS against opponents off a loss.
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I think the Bills look at this game as a winnable game for them that they need to take of advantage of after two straight bad losses. Take the Bills on the road plus the points.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NLCS Series St. Louis -105 over SAN FRANCISCO
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Both these teams refuse to lose. The Cardinals have been on the bad side of four match points in the last 13 months and after Friday night's madness in Washington, they are still standing. The Giants endured the Melky Cabrera adversity and after losing their first two games in the postseason, they came back to beat the Reds, in Cincinnati, no less.
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Although San Francisco found a way past the Reds, Matt Cain looks very shaky and Madison Bumgarner is not throwing well. Barry Zito didn't get through five innings in his start in Game 5 and if Bruce Bochy is forced to use him, we’ll be thrilled. We tend to think of San Francisco as a team with dominant starting pitching but in the first round the Giants got only 22.2 innings in five games from their rotation. They will need more in this round. So far, the Giants' rotation has zero quality starts this October.
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The Cardinals pitching looks good. Chris Carpenter is throwing well. Adam Wainwright, despite rough game five against Nats, is a stud. Lance Lynn is very capable. Then there’s the bullpen. Every October, a relief star is born. This year, it's the Cardinals' Trevor Rosenthal, who has been mixing a 100 mph fastball with a devastating breaking ball and dominating hitters. In 3.1 innings, he has struck out six hitters and he'll get more chances against the Giants. Bruce Bochy might be the best in the business at handling his bullpen and finding the right matchups but as the Giants face the Cardinals, it will be more difficult for to pick and choose because of the depth of the St. Louis lineup, from Carlos Beltran to Matt Holliday to the incredibly underrated Allen Craig to David Freese. Less flaws, better pitching has us backing the Redbirds.
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St Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
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Both teams came up big on the road in the NLDS and now they meet in the NLCS starting in San Francisco. St. Louis is flying high after being down 6-0 in the game and 7-5 headed into the 9th in the game five before coming back to win 9-7 and advance. San Francisco is flying high themselves as they spotted Cincinnati a 2-0 series lead losing both games at home went into Cincinnati and won close games and got a monster grand slam from their MVP Posey to lead the way. Look for the road warrior mentality to continue in this series as the Cardinals get past the Giants in San Francisco with the Cardinals line up being too tough to handle. Play St. Louis
Scott Delaney
My free pick for today is going to be on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers laying the points at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, as I think coach Greg Schiano's bunch will be revitalized after a bye week, and will look more like the team that beat Carolina in Week 1 and in a near-win over the defending Super Bowl champion Giants in Week 2.
Brady Quinn is in under center for the Chiefs, stepping up for Matt Cassel, who committed 14 turnovers over five games. And even though Tampa has allowed more passing yardage than any other NFL team, the Chiefs are the perfect team to try out the adjustments I suspect Schiano has made.
I'd rather side with Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman, who let's not forget a big season in 2010, throwing for 25 touchdowns with just six interceptions. This season he is completing less than 55 percent of his passes with four interceptions in four games. Another great spot for another component of the Buccaneers' game. Freeman should be able to light things up after a rest week, and now playing at home against a listless Chiefs team that has lost two straight and four of five on the year.
Though Romeo Crennel may have the longevity in the coaching department, I don't think his conservative approach does the Chiefs any favors. In fact, some may say it cost his team a victory against Baltimore last week. I like Schiano's energy more than I do Crennel's, and I think he's going to have a brand-new Buccaneers energy on display in this game.
Lay the home chalk.
5♦ TAMPA BAY
Chuck O'Brien
Last Sunday I gave you a free winner on the Over in the Colts/Packers game. This week I'm playing another total as a freebie, and it's going to be the Under in the Dallas Cowboys-Baltimore Ravens game. Yes, the defensive units are the highlight, and I honestly think it's mind-boggling to see the total in the mid-40s.
It's quite obvious the Raven's no-huddle is not working, in my opinion. Last week the Ravens looks lethargic and pathetic in a 9-6 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. It doesn't seem to matter that Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has plenty of weapons at his disposal, including versatile running back Ray Rice, who is second in the league in total yards from scrimmage (609). It doesn't seem to be exectuing properly.
Yes, the Ravens have the eighth-best offense overall in the NFL, but their scoring offense ranks drops to 10th with 26 points per game. Not bad, right? Okay, but since scoring 44 in the season opener, the Ravens are averaging just 21.5 points per game. They've scored more than 23 points in only one game.
You best believe Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is licking his chops today, and will be out to spoil Baltimore's hurry-up offense. The Cowboys are 16-7 in games played after a bye week, and that includes two straight losses. Ryan is going to have his troops geared up to stop the Ravens.
On the other side of the ball, it's the Ravens' D against Tony Romo and company. And I'm the last person to belittle Romo. I don't think he's the problem, to be honest with you - I think it's coach Jason Garrett. But that's another story. This offense is going to move the ball a lot against Baltimore's D.
The Cowboys haven't scored more than 24 points all season. They won 24-17 on opening night at the New York Giants. Since then they've scored 7, 16 and 18, at Seattle, and vs. Tampa Bay and Chicago, respectively. Now you expect them to go to Baltimore and put points up?
Play this one low.
2♦ UNDER Cowboys/Colts
Craig Davis
As for today's free winner (like yesterday's free winner on Ohio State/Indiana over the total) I'm taking the Giants over the Niners in san Francisco.
Don't let the Niners fool you... they have had this game marked on their calendars for quite some time --- at least since last post-season.
After demolishing the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, the New York Giants will offer the Niners their toughest test since the Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers. If you'll remember, San Francisco won the first meeting in November of last year in the regular season, but that pales in comparison to the Giants winning when it mattered... 20-17 in the NFC Championship Game.
These two rosters have definitely made some additions and subtractions, but the core of each team is still intact, and for me to believe the Giants don't have what it takes to stay within a touchdown of the Niners is insane. Shoot, I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game SU, let alone covering this number.
I realize it's a road game and the Giants clearly haven't looked like the Giants of last year, but Eli Manning is starting to look more and more like his older brother with some of his late-game heroics.
The running game continues to surprise me, and even with Hakeem Nicks "knicked" up, I like the Giants to play right with the Niners the entire four quarters with a chance to win it in the end.
Take New York as your free play of the day.
3♦ N.Y. GIANTS
Jeff Benton
Saturday freebie was Florida State in a romp.
16-7 run with my freebies.
Your Sunday freebie is the rested-and-ready Arizona Cardinals to win by double-digits against a Buffalo team that is playing their second in a row far, far away from home.
Buffalo was routed 45-3 last Sunday in San Francisco, and they have allowed a whopping 97 points in their last pair of losses.
Arizona's defense figures to wreck havoc on the beleaguered Ryan Fitzpatrick who has already thrown eight interceptions this season. The Cards have been able to cover five of their last seven games at home, winning all three home dates straight up thus far this season.
'Zona has had a few extra days to work on repairs to their leaky offensive line, so expect them to come out on a mission in this spot.
Buffalo is on a 4-10 spread slide their last 14 dating back to last season, and with this being their second straight on the left coast, and their third road game in their last four games overall, I don't expect the results to be pretty for the visiting team today.
Go right ahead and lay it at home with the Cardinals.
4♦ ARIZONA
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday is going to be on the Cleveland Browns against the Cincinnati Bengals, as I'm taking the home dog in this AFC North rivalry. And it's a little more than a division rivalry, with Ohio-state bragging rights at stake.
These two met in Week 2, and the Bengals won that game in Cincinnati, 34-27, pushing the 7-point spread. Today I think revenge is in order, and the Browns are going to get there with what should be an outright win - which would be Cleveland's first win of the season.
Helping things out on defense this time around will be Joe Haden, who is back in the Browns secondary. He didn't play in the first meeting, as he began serving a four-game suspension for a violation of the league’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.
I know the Bengals have won four straight, seven of eight and 13 of 16 against the Browns. But Cleveland is the NFL’s only winless team. The underdog is on a 9-1-1 ATS run in this series. And if the Bengaals are 3-2, including road wins at Washington and Jacksonville, I'm wondering why this line is so low?
I think it's a clear indicator what team is supposed to win this game.
I'm not sold on Cincinnati's rushing game. BenJarvus Green-Ellis had 82 yards on 26 carries in a Week 4 win against Jacksonville; against Washington and Miami he had just 52 on 26 carries. So with him struggling, and Haden back to shadow the Bengals' A.J. Green, whose 36 receptions are second-most in the AFC, I think we're going to see a big performance from the Browns' defense.
Take the home pup here.
4♦ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Matt Rivers
Your Sunday free play is the Kansas City Chiefs in the road underdog role at Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers were idle last week, and are looking to stop a three game losing streak when the host the ailing Chiefs today.
Tampa Bay's games have been decided by 6, 7, 6, and 2 points, while two of Kansas City's last three games have been decided by a field goal.
KC has covered 10 of their last 16 games when installed as the road underdog, and they do own a road outright win over New Orleans back on September 23rd.
No issue with Brady Quinn starting for the injured Matt Cassel, as in my mind the Bucs 1-6 spread mark their last seven when favored is a go against no matter who is under center for the visitors.
Chiefs and Bucs go right down to the wire in this one.
Take the points.
1♦ KANSAS CITY