Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 16

Sam Martin

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals

We admit we were in the camp of many others thinking this would be an awful season for Cincinnati, but the Bengals have really played pretty well so far, and we even backed them last week in their win and cover against Jacksonville. We'll back the Bengals again this week as they take on a winless Indy team that may not win a game this season. The Colts have been competitive the last few weeks, but we look for that to change here on the road where they are 0-2 with those losses coming by a combined 34 points. Bengals rush defense is excellent, and obviously the Colts have a ton of issues passing the ball without Manning behind center. Bengals win big! 5* Play on Cincinnati.

Hollywood Sports

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Cleveland Browns

Oakland (3-2) will be playing their first game back at home after the death of owner Al Davis. While the fans will be very emotional and energetic, it would be a mistake to assume that the Raider players will be able to feed off the home crowd. Oakland earned a very emotional and hard fought win last Sunday in Houston just a day after Davis passed and it is just very difficult to sustain that level of emotional intensity for more than one game. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. And the Raiders' defense is very much in question by allowing 26.6 YPG (28th in the NFL) and by ranking second to last in the league in yards allowed (422.4 YPG). The problem is the Oakland pass defense that is allowing 299.6 passing YPG (29th in the NFL). Cleveland (2-2) has had trouble passing the football this season with question marks at wide receiver. But if they can get a credible passing game going, that will open things up for their running game. Head coach Mike Shurmer has already proclaimed that the Raiders should expect to see a heavy dose of Peyton Hillis. The Browns' defense has been excellent against the pass this season by limiting their opponents to only 195.4 passing YPG (4th in the NFL) and just 320.0 total YPG overall (9th in the NFL). They have a very good chance to make Oakland too reliant on their running game given the Raiders' 22nd ranked passing attack. The Browns have had two weeks to stew over their 31-13 loss at home to Tennessee and they have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a poor defensive effort where they allowed at least 30 points. Cleveland has also covered 7 straight games as an underdog in the 3.5-10 point range. The Raiders, on the other hand, have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 14 home games as a favorite. Take the points with the Browns.

Stephen Nover

St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -14½

The good stay good. The bad stay bad. That's the way it is in this the year of the lockout in the NFL.

Green Bay is averaging an NFL-best 34.6 points a game. The Rams are averaging a league-worst 11.5 points per contest.

That's a gap of 23 points. Now factor in home-field, the Rams being on an off-surface and the Packers' wide receiving depth compared to the Rams' depleted secondary and lack of quality wideouts and the margin between this have and have not is even larger.

Still think laying more than two touchdowns is huge? Don't be because it's not in this game.

The Packers are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS despite having yet to produce an all-around "A" game. The Packers beat Denver by 26 points at home two weeks ago putting 49 points on the Broncos. They are more than capable of hanging that number on the Rams.

This is the 13th time the Packers have been a double-digit favorite under Mike McCarthy. They are 11-1 in those games, including 10-0 at Lambeau Field. They are 9-3 (75 percent) ATS.

The Rams' secondary is in shambles. Their three best cornerbacks - Ron Bartell, Jerome Murphy and Bradley Fletcher - are all out for the season. They are reduced to starting one-time Packer cornerback Al Harris. He's 36 and has a bad knee. He never could run even when he was healthy and in his prime.

Green Bay has the deepest set of wideouts in the NFL. Donald Driver is now the Packers' No. 5 wide receiver behind Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Randall Cobb. He would be the Rams' most reliable wide receiver if he played for them. Aaron Rodgers knows how to use all of them along with superb receiving tight end Jermichael Finley.

The Rams, by contrast, have the worst set of receivers in the NFL after slot man Danny Amendola went down for the season. St. Louis' offensive line has played terrible giving up 18 sacks and allowing numerous hits on Sam Bradford. All of this has contributed to Bradford's passer rating and accuracy percentage being way down from his rookie season.

It's true that this isn't a great situational spot for Green Bay. The Rams were idle last week. The Packers just beat Atlanta on Sunday night and have Minnesota up next, a division rival they have hated even more than Chicago and Detroit during the last few years.

But this doesn't matter to a hot Rodgers and his high-powered, explosive passing attack. There's no way the Rams can corral Green Bay given their personnel.

Accuwager

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Prediction: New York Jets -7

The Miami Dolphins (0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U) are in big trouble NFL gamblers so much trouble, that this pick is as easy as pie. Not only has Miami not won a single game this season, but they've looked increasingly inept in not reaching the 20-point plateau in each of their last three games. The winless Fins had a bye in week 5 following their uninspiring 26-16 Week 4 loss to San Diego as a 6.5-point road underdog in Week 4. Miami will face a New York Jets (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U) team that has lost two straight games and will be in all-out 'desperation mode' in this AFC East divisional showdown. The Jets fell to New England 30-12 as a 7.5-point road underdog in Week 5 and now they're going to take out all of their frustration on Miami's mostly clueless backup quarterback Matt Moore. New York is 9-3 ATS in its last dozen games against a team with a losing record while Miami has gone 0-6-1 ATS in its L/7 games overall. The Dolphins have won four of the last five games against the Jets, but there's no way it happening in this contest. Keep it simple and back the New York Jets to win and cash in!

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots -7

The Dallas Cowboys (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U) suffered the biggest comeback loss in franchise history in their last contest. Their prize? A date against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U) in what now looks like a fascinating Week 6 showdown. Dallas collapsed in the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions in Week 4, getting shut out in the final period while giving up 17 fourth quarter points to the explosive Lions in its heartbreaking 34-30 home loss as a 2-point favorite. New England man-handled the New York Jets in their 30-21 Week 5 win as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Patriots look like the solid pick in this contest and I believe they'll narrowly cash in as Tom Brady coolly makes the Boys defense pay with his incomparable accuracy. New England is averaging almost nine points per game more than the 'Boys (33.0 ppg to 24.8 ppg) while also allowing almost two fewer points per game defensively. Dallas has gone 6-0 ATS in their last half-dozen games as an underdog, but New England has gone 4-1 ATS in their L/5 games as a home favorite and a bankroll-boosting 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an SU win.The Patriots have won three straight over Dallas while covering the spread each time out while the favorite has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four meeting. NFL gamblers can expect this game to play out in the Pats favor!

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Prediction: New Orleans Saints -4.5

Is it possible that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 O/U) could really show up this week and bounce back from their shocking 48-3 road loss to San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog last week? Yes, they very well could. However, I just can't bring myself to advise any NFL gambler to back the Bucs, seeing as how they have the tough task of stopping Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U) this week. The Saints squeaked past gifted rookie quarterback Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers 30-27 in Week 5 despite failing to cash in as a 6.5-point road favorite. Still, I like the Saints to get the road win and narrow ATS payday in this contest, mostly because the Buccaneers can barely score the ball with their pedestrian offense. While both teams are allowing n identical 25.0 points per game defensively, the Saints are averaging 14 points per game more than Tampa Bay – and that should be enough to make a difference in this NFC South divisional matchup. The Road team in this divisional series is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings while Tampa Bay has gone 5-17 ATS mark in their L/22 home games. The Saints are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against the Buccaneers and are the easy pick to win this game.

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -6.5

After seeing the Baltimore Ravens (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U) pound the hell out of the New York Jets in their impressive 34-17 Week 4 win as a 5.5-point home favorite – and the inconsistent Houston Texans (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U) fall to the Raiders 25-20 as a 4.5-point home favorite this past Sunday, I'm thinking the Texans are going down again in this intriguing matchup. Ironically, while the Texans have been known more for their explosive offense – and pitiful defense – the last few years, it is Baltimore that is averaging more points per game this season (29.8 ppg to 25.4 ppg) while also allowing nearly five fewer points per contest defensively. Not only are the Ravens better on both sides of the ball this season, but they're also undefeated in two home games. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in their L/10 games and a blistering 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, 1-5 ATS mark in their last half-dozen games as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog no matter where they play. I smell a huge day looming for Ray Rice and company while Baltimore's voracious defense keeps Matt Schaub and company largely in check. Back the Ravens minus the points.

Cleveland Browns vs. Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Oakland Raiders -6

The Oakland Raiders (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U) got a very nice win in Week 5, not long after beloved owner Al Davis passed away. The Raiders held Houston's explosive offense to just six second half points while putting up 10 points of their own in the final quarter to win 25-20 and cash in as a 4.5-point road underdog. Oakland will face a Cleveland Browns (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U) team that got a timely bye in Week 5 after falling to Tennessee 31-13 as a 1-point home favorite in Week 4. I'm going to advise NFL gamblers everywhere to back the Raiders to narrowly cover the spread in this contest, mostly because of their overpowering rushing attack. Yes, I know the Browns are 7-0 ATS in its L/7 road games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points, Oakland has put together an impressive 5-1 ATS mark in their last half-dozen games while also going 7-3 ATS in their L/10 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. Cleveland is 1-6-1 ATS in its L/8 games and 1-5 ATS in their L/6 against a team with a winning record, but that's not what really leads me to believe Oakland is going to win and cash in. With Oakland ranking second in rushing by averaging a whopping 161.8 rushing yards per game, the Browns have struggled mightily to stop the run, ranking 25th in run defense, allowing 124.5 rushing yards per contest. The Browns have won four of the last five meetings against Oakland, but not this time NFL bettors. Play the Raiders to win anther for Al Davis.

NFL Betting Picks

San Francisco 49ers +5

The 49ers come into this game 4-1 and 4-0-1 ATS. They are coming off of a huge confident boosting 48-3 victory as just 2.5 point favorites, which follow victories in Philadelphia as 9.5 point dogs in Week 4 and Cincinnati in Week 3. The Lions are looking like an NFC playoff team off to an amazing 5-0 start, but are in a let down spot here on a short week. Coming off a big 24-13 Monday Night football win at home the Lions face a tough 49ers team. The Lions made a lot of mistakes on Monday, and won't have an easy time against this 49ers defense who averages just 15.6 points against per game. 5 points is too many for the Lions in this one, I'm on the 49ers.

Bills / Giants Over 50.5

These two teams are in the top half of the league in a lot of offensive categories, including points per game. The Bills sit 3rd in the league at 32.8 points per game while the Giants are 9th in the league with 25.4 points per game. Both teams are averaging ove 350 yards of offense per game on the season. With that said, both defenses have had their troubles. The Giants are allowing 24.6 points against per game, and the Bills are allowing 24 points against. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eli Manning have both looked solid thus far - with Manning sporting a 102.3 QB rating, and Fitzpatrick with a 96.4 QB rating. Take note that the OVER is 6-0 in the Bills last 6 games overall, and 4-1 in their last 5 as a road underdog. The OVER is also 5-1-1 in the Giants last 5 home games, and 7-1 in their last 8 as a small favorite of 0.5-3.0. The offenses keep rolling in a shootout in New York - take the OVER.

New York Giants -3

A lot of action is coming in on the Bills +3 after they beat the Eagles last week (I game where I had the BILLS +3), but I am going on the opposite here. These two teams match up fairly evenly, and this will no doubt be a good match up. The Bills haven't been tested on the road, beating a bad Chiefs team and then losing to the Bengals by a field goal. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home, as head coach Tom Coughlin is 7-3 ATS in his last 10 as a favorite after losing straight up as a favorite. I'm not a fan of this Giants team after they knocked me out of my fantasy pool last week, but I fully expect a big bounce back game from New York. That and home field advantage should have the Giants favored by a few more, and I will take the Giants only laying a field goal.

Marc Lawrence

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Carolina Panthers

For all intents and purposes, it appeared the Falcons went into the famous ‘Dean Smith 4-Corner Stall’ after securing a 14-0 lead against the Packers Sunday night. Inexplicably, they went from attack mode to prevent offense and, as a result, now trail the Saints by two full games in the NFC South. To their credit, they’ve bounced back to cash checks all three times they’ve been at home in games off a home loss under Mike Smith. The problem we have today is the Panthers enter this contest 12-0 ATS as dogs in October against foes off a SU and ATS loss. Carolina also sports the better offense AND the better defense in this contest. In addition, Cam’s crew is +224 total yards net ‘In The Stats’ in games against two common opponents this season, (Chicago and Green Bay), than the favored Falcons. The bottom line is we’ll side with the team playing the better ball on the field this year. We recommend a 1-unit play on Carolina.

Nelly

Cincinnati - over Indianapolis

Before the season started many felt Cincinnati might make a run at 0-16 but it is the Colts that are in that boat after blowing a big lead last week. The Bengals meanwhile should be thinking playoffs with a 3-2 start, elite defensive numbers, and an exciting young offense that has shown great potential. Curtis Painter played well last week to give the Colts some hope but the production for this team has been among the worst in the league. Historically the Bengals have been very hard to trust as favorites but we are talking about fading a 0-5 team on the road with a very inexperienced QB and no running game. Cincinnati still has a very negative reputation to shake off but this is a decent team with some real playmakers that is making the most of a weak early season schedule.

James Patrick Sports

Houston vs. Baltimore

Houston brought in former Dallas Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips to rebuild the defense, which will include a switch to a 3-4 front. The real upgrade was done in the secondary, which was the NFL’s worst last season.This series has gone the way of the Road team which owns a (4-0) ATS in their last (4) meetings and the Texans got an offensive lift when Houston acquired wide receiver Derrick Mason from the New York Jets this week and hope he masters the playbook quickly.Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is on Houston Texans.

Matt Fargo

Cleveland Browns vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Cleveland Browns +7

In what was considered a very inspired effort last week in Houston, the Raiders won for owner Al Davis who passed away the day before. Not to take anything away from the victory but Oakland was rather fortunate as it was outgained by 195 total yards in the winning effort. It was the fourth time in five games that the Raiders have been outgained and on the season they are getting outgained by an average of 40.8 ppg. They are not going to win many games with that production and after last week, this spells letdown. The Browns entered their bye week with a 2-2 record but they have not played all that bad. They lost their last game against Tennessee despite outgaining the Titans by 84 total yards. They were in position to cut the lead down in the third quarter but Tennessee returned an interception 97 yards for a touchdown and the 14-point swing did them in. Surprisingly this is the first game that Cleveland has been tabbed as an underdog and it is a rather big number for the Browns to be getting coming off a bye week. The Cleveland offense has been very inconsistent to start the season. Running back Peyton Hillis has been nowhere near as productive as last season and people are speculating it is because of his contract issues. He was ill for a while and missed the third game but came back against Tennessee and averaged 4.6 ypc in a limited 10 carries. He is back to full strength and should have his breakout game here as the Raiders are allowing 122.2 ypg and 5.2 ypc, the latter being fourth worst in the NFL. As far as the passing game, Colt McCoy has just a 78.7 passer rating but he could be in store for a big game as well. Matt Schaub lit Oakland up for 416 yards through the air last week, with much of that production distributed to his tight ends. The Browns receivers match up well as they are big and physical and if McCoy is rolling out of the pocket, he is at his best. Cleveland's defense is allowing over 100 ypg less than the Raiders defense so don't expect the Oakland offense to have big games like they have had recently. The Raiders are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite while the Browns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. Also, Cleveland falls into a great contrarian situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss by 14 or more points and are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg against on offense going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1983. 3* Cleveland Browns

Scott Rickenbach

Colts @ Bengals
Pick: Under 40.5

The Colts come into this game winless after falling short versus the Chiefs last week. Though Indianapolis scored 24 points against Kansas City note that they faced a Chiefs team that is just plain awful this season. Now the Colts must face a Bengals team that has been very solid on defense so far this season. Cincinnati has held four of their first five opponents under 300 yards of offense. Also, note that the Bengals are 5-3 to the under the last three seasons when they enter a game on a winning streak of two games or more. As for Indianapolis, the Colts offense really hasn't moved the ball well this season as they continue to struggle without Peyton Manning. Each of these teams is 4-1 to the over so far this season but this is merely serving to give us some extra line value here because the O/U results have not been commensurate with the way each teams' games have played out on the field. Grab the value as a solid UNDER can be expected here!

Teddy Covers

St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers
PICK: St. Louis Rams +14.5

I’m not going to write some BS about the Rams being a good but underachieving team. They’re not. But there’s money to be made in the NFL, year after year, supporting bad teams when they step up in class against disinterested foes. ‘Hold your nose’ bets have a place in the NFL, and that’s exactly the situation we’ve got on Sunday.

First, let’s establish that St Louis is coming to play. Winless teams coming off a bye week are a long term profitable subset to support. In fact, teams that are 0-4 or worse off a bye are a whopping 22-3 ATS! It makes sense -- those teams spend two weeks hearing how bad they are, then tend to come out fully focused in that first opportunity to get off the schnied at the same time that the betting markets have written them off for dead.

Similarly, double digit favorites in the NFL are a long term profitable subset to bet against! Double digit chalk is 2-6 ATS so far this season, including outright losses by the Eagles and Giants, along with games where the Bucs and Steelers never sniffed pointspread success. The backdoor was wide open against Green Bay when they laid double digits against the Panthers last month, just one more ATS defeat in this ‘big chalk’ role.

The defending Super Bowl champs are in a nasty sandwich spot here. They’re coming off a huge Sunday Night TV win against a playoff opponent from last year, Atlanta. On deck? A divisional matchup in Minnesota against the Vikings, followed by a trip to face the 4-1 Chargers. This is the type of game that the Packers think they can win in their sleep. I expect them to play that way. Take the Rams.

Steve Janus

Cowboys/Patriots Over 55.5

These are two of the better passing offenses going up against two defenses that have had trouble stopping the pass. The Patriots have been one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league, averaging over 30 ppg and 495 yards of total offense. On defense the Patriots are giving up 326.6 passing yards a game, which plays right into the hands of the Cowboys attack. Dallas is averaging 331 yards through the air, and are expected to get star wide out Miles Austin back for this game. Both of these teams should be able to put at least 30 points in this game. The OVER is 10-1 in Patriots last 11 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 9-1 in Cowboys last 10 games following a S.U. loss. BET THE OVER 55.5!

Carlo Campanella

Cleveland Browns vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Oakland Raiders -6½

Oakland is 3-2 and only lost to New England (4-1) and Buffalo (4-1). They're winning behind solid offensive play, averaging 27.2 points per game, with only the Patriot's Bill Belichick holding them to below 23 points (19 points) this season. Doubt the Browns can match points on the road as they've already been held to 17 points or less in 3 of their first 4 games! Raiders won last Sunday after hearing long-time Owner Al Davis passed away and now play first home game in Oakland since. Perfect match-up for this Raiders offense against a sluggish Browns offense that can't keep up with the fast Raiders.

Jim Feist

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jaguars (1-4 SU/ATS) have a tough defense but a new-look offense that is lousy. They had been going with QB Luke McCown (0 TDs, 4 INTs), throwing 4 picks in a 32-3 loss at the Jets. McCown was 6 for 19 for 59 yards. Blane Gabbert (3 TDs, 2 INTs), the team’s first-round pick, is now the QB. This is a ball control offense behind RB Maurice Jones Drew, so if they get behind the QBs are not reliable to lead a big comeback. They’ve scored 16, 3, 10, 10 and 20 points in five games games. In a 23-10 loss at home to the Saints, they got outgained 503-274 and allowed 177 yards rushing. They also had a 16-10 loss at Carolina with 257 total yards as Gabbert was 12 of 21 for 139 yards. Jacksonville has a retooled defense, committing $112 million to acquire linebackers Paul Posluszny and Clint Session, safety Dawan Landry, nickel cornerback Drew Coleman and defensive end Matt Roth. The Jaguars are 13-32 ATS in their last 45 games on grass, 2-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Steelers (3-2 SU/2-3 ATS) like to have balance on offense, but this offensive line is banged up and they have struggled with the run. QB Ben Roethlisberger (8 TDs, 6 INTs) has plenty of talented tools with RB Rashard Mendenhall, WRs Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, plus TE Heath Miller. All their problems were forgotten Sunday, however, as Big Ben threw for 5 TDs and the offense had 431 yards in a 38-17 rout of Tennessee. In the past 54 games, only 3 times has Pittsburgh allowed a runner to reach 100 yards. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The home team is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 meetings between these teams. Take the Steelers as the Jaguars offense sputters to puts points on the board.