EZWINNERS
Green Bay Packers -14
This is one should get ugly as the Rams visit Lambeau to play the Packers. St. Louis is only averaging just over eleven points per game and they are going to have a hard time keeping up with the Green Bay offense. The Rams have a franchise quality quarterback in Sam Bradford, but the problem is that they don't have any quality receiver and the offensive line has not been able to keep Bradford on his feet as they have allowed 19 sacks and 41 hits on the quarterback which is second worst in the NFL behind Seattle. These factors probably explain why Bradford has the lowest passer rating of any starting quarterback in the league at 65.9. The Packers have no such problem. Aaron Rodgers has the highest passer rating in the league at 122.9 and has thrown for 1,721 yards while accounting for sixteen touchdowns. St. Louis is coming off of a bye week and Green Bay had a big win at Atlanta last Sunday night, but the gap in talent is just too wide. Lay the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Buffalo Bills vs. NY Giants
Play: NY Giants -3
On Sunday the NFL System Club Play is on the NY. Giants. Game 214 at 1:00 eastern. The Bills are in a tough system here today that plays against road dogs off a home dog win and scored 21 or more points, vs a home team that scored 28 or more as a home favorite of 10 or more. The Giants came out with no energy last week and made the Seattle lowest ranked offense look like a machine. Today they will come out with a purpose and make amends for last weeks dismal effort. The Giants have won 5 of 5 in game six of the season and are 5-1 ats in the series. The Bills have lost 10 of 13 vs winning teams and are 2-6 ats in game six, they are 5-23 ats as a dog off a win and 1-7 ats as dogs of less than 7 vs a winning team. Their coach, Chan Gailey is 0-9 ats in non division games vs a road team with a winning record. Look for the Giants to get the win and cover today.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland +6½ over OAKLAND
RIP Al Davis. That was a fine tribute the Raiders provided last week when winning in an unlikely, almost supernatural way. Without sounding insensitive, the aftermath of Davis’ passing may not be as triumphant. There will be plenty of distractions now with the Raiders returning home to deal with media and other things regarding his death and that won’t bode well for a team that has defensive liabilities. The Browns have had a couple weeks to prepare for this trip. Colt McCoy has averaged 43 pass attempts per game in 2011. He’s also thrown at least one touchdown in every game this year. With McCoy tossing against a secondary that is giving up 318 yards per game and multiple passing scores in four straight, the Browns figure to compete throughout. Play: Cleveland +6½ +101 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA -4 over Carolina
The public has short memories. Oddsmakers recognize that. The result is an erroneous number being posted for this contest. After a couple of crummy seasons, the Panthers have become league darlings with the addition of Cam Newton as their franchise quarterback. No doubt, they’ve become fun and exciting to watch. Conversely, the Falcons are now perceived as underachievers, understandably. But let’s not write off Atlanta just yet. They are 21-5 under Ryan in this stadium, they're well coached and they have superior players overall. The Falcons also played three of their first four on the road before returning home to play the powerful Packers last week. It’s time to bear down for these Dirty Birds and what we have here is an undervalued squad at home against a team that’s overvalued and coming off an intense and near upset at home against the Saints. Classic case of “buy low”. Smaller price also reduces Carolina’s backdoor chances. Play: Atlanta –4 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Jacksonville +13 over PITTSBURGH
We found a nice spot last week with these Steelers being undervalued against a mediocre Titans team. Now the opposite has taken place. How can Pittsburgh be a 3-pt favorite over Tennessee and one week later, a 12-point favorite over a slightly lesser Jacksonville squad? A severe overreaction to Pittsburgh's victory last week has inflated this number immensely. The Steelers remain a team with many issues, not the least of which is run defense. If Jacksonville has strength, it would be their ground game with star RB Maurice Jones-Drew leading the way. Conservative affair stays close. Play: Jacksonville +13 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Minnesota +122 over CHICAGO
In this league, without protection, you cannot win and the Bears cannot protect Jay Cutler. Poor Jay Cutler. Those hits keep adding up like constant jabs in a boxing match and now Cutler is running for his life while playing in fear. Chicago is also coming off a Monday night loss in Detroit and has one less day to prepare and recover. That can’t be good against a Minnesota club coming off its first win of the year. One win does wonders to a team psyche and let’s not ignore the fact that the Vikings could be 5-0 instead of 1-4. They had two touchdown leads in its first three games and lost them all. Those two TD leads came against three potential playoff teams in San Diego, Tampa Bay and Detroit. They also lost in K.C. by four before destroying the Cardinals last week. Adrian Peterson keeps racking up the yards and while Donovan McNab isn’t lighting it up, at least he’s not turning it over. The Bears have played a whole bunch of tough games and that takes a toll. The Vikes defense is much better than their getting credit far and you can expect that defense, led by the blood thirsty Jared Allen, to really turn the heat up on Cutler. Play: Minnesota +122 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. GIANTS –3 –123 over Buffalo
For now, this one is a no bet because of the –125 juice we have to lay on top of the –3. However, come Sunday morning, we might add this to our slate if the juice on the –3 comes down once the squares get a hold of the line. Beneath Buffalo’s shocking start is a 30th ranked defense that will eventually get exposed and this is a perfect situation for that to happen. The Giants are being largely discounted after clunker at home to lowly Seachikens but with New York’s passing game re-establishing itself, the Bills’ bubble finally bursts. A lot of folks had the Eagles beating the Bills last week and ripped their tickets. Many others had the G-Men to beat Seattle in their Survivor pools and they, too, ripped their tickets. Once again we have a classic case of “buy low” and “sell high” and we’re going to keep a close eye on this line. Don’t get sucked into playing the Bills. Again, for now it’s a no bet but there’s a good chance that’ll change come Sunday. Play: N.Y. Giants –3 (No bets).
The rest with no wagers
WASHINGTON +2 over Philadelphia SportsInteraction
Many believe that the Eagles can’t keep losing like this. Truth is they can. Just like Philadelphia should not have been favored in Buffalo last week, these Pigeons should not be chalk here. The Redskins play sound defense and have had an extra week to prepare for this reeling foe. Rap with us now: The O-line retreatin. Vick takes a beatin. Reid keeps a eatin. Fans disbelievin. Turnovers thievin. Hype was deceivin. Ain’t no retrievin that Dream Team Season. Play: Washington +2 (No bets).
St. Louis +15½ over GREEN BAY SportsInteraction
The Packers keep covering and the books keep paying out money to Green Bay backers. With the point-spread being the great equalizer and oddsmakers knowing the sentiment here, they have no choice but to inflate number in an attempt to draw Rams money. That offers value on the mutt and that’s sufficient enough for our endorsement. Play: St. Louis +14½ (No bets).
DETROIT –4 over San Francisco Pinnacle
Who didn’t know these two would be 9-1 combined? San Francisco likely the bigger surprise but this will be its biggest task yet. Niners’ heading out to third road trip in four weeks and with their secondary vulnerable to potent passing attacks, the soaring, roaring Lions get the call. Had Detroit not been coming off big Monday night win, this one would’ve made our top plays, as San Fran is a sell high team right now after putting a thorough beating on the Bucs last week as a small favorite. Play: Detroit –4 (No bets).
Indianapolis +7 over CINCINNATI Pinnacle
We’re as impressed with the young Bengals as any but come on now, this is a bit much. Cincinnati has been money as an underdog but spotting a full touchdown (2-12 as chalk past 14) with neophyte host over a Colts team that has been competitive in three straight hardly seems wise. Play: Indianapolis +7 (No bets).
BALTIMORE –7½ over Houston Pinnacle
Some teams can deal with injuries by working harder to overcome the adversity. The Texans are not one of those teams. Houston’s mental makeup is marginal at the best of times and now that the injury bug has infiltrated its locker room, we can’t see the Texans keeping pace with elite teams such as this one. Play: Baltimore –7½ (No bets).
Dallas +7 over NEW ENGLAND Pinnacle
Forgive and forget. That’s what Cowboys supporters will have to do in order to get past the collapse against the Lions two weeks ago. Even though Dallas facing top-talented Patriots, one has to be enthused about taking back a touchdown with a Dallas team that has played in 10 straight decided by four or less. Pats are good but they’re also largely unbalanced with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Last team to have the ball might win this one. Play: Dallas +7 (No bets)
TAMPA BAY +5 over New Orleans Pinnacle
We’re going to give the Bucs a mulligan for last week’s stinker in San Francisco. Our hopes are that this young team was looking ahead to this one and that they’ll provide a much better showing of themselves here. Saints being asked to spot points in 3rd consecutive road game in big division match and this one reeks of being the trap of the day. Be very careful about unloading on Saints. Play: Tampa Bay +5 (No bets).
This week’s Survivor Pick:
BALTIMORE:
The obvious pick this week is the Packers or Steelers and it would certainly be a shocker if either loses. The problem with playing the same team(s) as everyone else is that one of two things will happen. You’ll either go down with everyone else or you’ll split the pool 200 ways. Our strategy is to avoid that and step “outside the box”. So, this week’s pick is a healthy, talented and well-rested Ravens club against a banged up and poor traveling Texans. Maybe the Pack or the Steelers take their opponents for granted this week and show up in body only. If you must, we would play Packers instead of Steelers.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
New Orleans -4.5 over TAMPA BAY: Coming into the year I expected the Bucs to be a bit better and possibly challenge for the South title, behind a solid QB in Josh Freeman, but they have really been inconsitent this year. Sure they are 3-2 on the year, but they have been been out gained by 42 ypg and outscored by 8 ppg on the year. In the last 4 weeks they barley beat Minnesota, Atlanta and a BAD Indianapolis club and then were crushed by 45 points by a San Francisco team that just doen't blow out teams. Josh Freman had a great year last year with 25 TD's and only 4 INT's, but this year he has guided his team to just 20th in passing, while throwing for just 3 TD's and 6 INT's. A far cry from last years numbers. Today they take on a New Orleans defense that is Middle of the pack in most defensive categories, but they do know how to pressure the QB and are 7th in the league ate grabbing 2.8 sacks per game. That pressure should rattle Freeman enough for him to make some costly mistakes. The Tampa defense has been bad this year as they are 23rd overall (378 ypg), including 20th vs the pass (254 ypg), plus they have allowed 25 ppg. Now they must contend with the 2nd ranked passing offense of the Saints tht comes in averaging 336 ypg through the air and 7.7 ypa, which is 7th best. The Buc just don't have the defense to stop Drew Brees, while their offense is too eratic to think they can put enough points on the board to keep this one close. I Say New Orleans by 10+ here. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play ON any team that forced 1 or less turnovers in 5 consecutive games vs an opponent that commited at least 3 turnovers in their last game. This system is 36-11 since 1983.
4 UNIT PLAY
NY GIANTS -3 over Buffalo: The Bills continue to impress after last weeks big win over Philadelphia has them at 4-1 on the year and atop the AFC East standings, but this is the week this team will come back down to earth a bit. Yes the Bills are 4-1 on the year, but after their opening destruction of KC they have been outgained by 90 ypg, so this is a team that has been playing more with luck than talent of late. The Bills offense has been strong this year, ranking 11th (379 ypg) overall and 13th in passing (241 ypg), but their defense has been really bad as they rank 30th overall (422 ypg) and 26th vs the pass (283 ypg) and they will have all sorts of problems vs Eli Manning and company, who mlook to make amends for last weeks 5 TO disater vs the Seahawks. The Giant offense comes in ranked 9th in passing at 275 ypg and even though Eli has 5 INT's 3 of them did come in last week's loss and i really expect a big bounceback game from him here. The Giant defense has not been all that great this year, due mostly to injuries, but I expect a good showing from them today vs a Buffalo offense that is due for a fall. The Giants are 19-7 ATS off a game where 60+ points were scored, while the Bills are 14-34 ATS after coviering the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, since 1992. Look for the Bills luck to run out here as the Giants bounceback with a solid win by at least a TD.
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Cleveland/ Oakland Over 44.5: The OU is 4-1 when the Browns are off a BYE and the OU is 7-1 when the Raiders are home off a non-divisional win. The Browns will not be mistaken for an offensive juggernaut, but they have had the extra week to prepare for this one and they will be taking on a pathetic Oakland defense. The Raiders are 32nd in total defense (414 ypg), 29th in passing defense (300 ypg) and 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg). Even the Cleveland offense should be good for about 21 vs this bad defense. The Cleveland defense does check in at 9th in the league, allowing 320 ypg, but they have yet to meet an offense this potent yet. So far this year the best offense the browns faced was Miami and they are ranked 16th in total offense. Today they will face the #9 offense of the Raiders and the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the league and that's not good news for a Cleveland defense that allows 124.5 ypg on the ground (25th). The Cleveland offense has had some time to prepare here so expect them to have a very good showing vs this defense, while the Raiders offense will have another great game. I look for around 50 points in this one. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Over when a non-division is playing off a SU home fav loss vs an opponent theat won SU & ATS the previous week. This system has gone 18-1 OU the last 4 years.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Dallas/ New England Over 55: Let's start off by saying that the system in the Browns/ Raiders game can be used for this game as well. This game will be fun to watch. Dallas brings the 3rd ranked passing offense into this one as they have put up 331 ypg through the air so far and they are 6th overall at 418 ypg. Dallas has had extra time to prepare and they will be taking on the worst ranked defense in the league. The Pats allow 433 ypg and 326 ypg through the air. The Dallas offense should have a field day vs them. On the other side we have a Pats offense that is first overall (495 ypg), 1st in passing (367 ypg) and 2nd in scoring (33 ppg). All those number are great, but what is most impreessive is that they are 6th in rushing offense,. When playing this Pats offense you don't kjnow what phase of it to try and stop as they are very balanced. The Dallas defense has been very good this year as they are 4th overall and 1st vs the run, but it doesn't matter what defense is out there, the Ptriots will score against them. Both of these offenses are very good and will have no problems in putting up enough points for an easy over here. I see around 60 points in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 14-2 in Dallas' last 16 on fieldturf, while the OU is 17-4 in the Pats last 21 as a favorite.
San Francisco +4 over DETROIT: Let's talk about emotion for a momemnt. Last week the Lions played and won their first MNF home ga,me in a long time and there was plenty of emotion that they used for that game. This team has been playing with a ton of empotion this year and they are off to a 5-0 start, but I see them coming back down to earth a bit in this one. The Niners are a very improved team and Jim Harbaugh has them playing well, as evidenced by last weeks blowout loss of Tampa Bay. The Niners defense has been very, ranking 13th overall and 2nd in points allowed and they should be able to contain this Detroit offense, that was slowed down a bit last week by a good Chicago defense. detroit is a good team this year, therre is no doubting that, but they are still a very young team and after playing such an emotional game last week, one can only expect them to have a letdown. I'll call for an outright upset by the Niners here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Indianapolis +7 over CINCINNATI: The Bengals are a very improved team this year and they do have the top rated defense in the league, but they are note ready to be a 7 point favorite over anyone. The Colts are getting closer and closer to getting that first win and the more work and practice Painter gets the better he will be. Let's also note that the Bungals are 0-9 ATS as home favroites the last 3 years and 24-45 ATS in October since 1992. Colts should keep this one close.
1 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia -1 over WASHINGTON: The Eagles have Burned me the last few weeks, but I will give them one more chance. The Eagles have one of the best offenses in the league as they check in 3rd n total offense, 1st in rushing and 11th in scoring. Despite the 1-4 start this team has still outgained their foes by a whopping 107 ypg, but it has been TO's that have and stupid penalties that have done them in this year. I feel that they will get it corrected today vs a Washington team that has overachieved this year due to playing a weak schedule. This play should be higher, but the sloppy play of the Eagles of late will not allow me to make this a top play.
Bob Balfe
Giants -3 over Bills
The Bills have let up a lot of points on defense. This is not a good defensive unit and its obvious they have benefited from lucky bounces for easy points. The Giants are coming off a tough week in which they let a team win that had no business being in the game. Buffalo has some key injuries on both sides of the ball and wont have the home field magic tonight. Look for Eli Manning to have a huge game. Take the Giants.
Frank Jordan
Cowboys vs. Patriots
Play: Over 55.5
Dallas is scoring roughly 25 points a game as they need to put up more than that to keep up with New England who is scoring 33 points a game. Look for this game to be a shootout as the offenses take over the game each scoring in the 30's as Brady and Romo take over the game. Play the Over
Steve Merril
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Carolina Panthers +4
The Panthers and Falcons are two teams headed in opposite directions. Carolina has continued to improve each week with rookie Cam Newton at quarterback. The Panthers are just 1-4 SU, but their four losses have come by just 7, 7, 5, and 3 points. Carolina’s offense has improved by 171 yards per game over 2010 (258 to 429) and their ability to score points has kept their games close resulting in a 4-1 ATS record despite having just one win on the season. While Carolina has improved, the Atlanta Falcons have taken a big step backwards. The Falcons went 13-3 in 2010, but after five weeks of the season, they sit at just 2-3. Last season, Atlanta’s defense gave up just 18 points per game. They’ve regressed by more than a full touchdown so far in 2011 as they are allowing opponents to score an average of 26 points per game. Overall, their defense is 24th in the league in yards allowed and 28th against the pass allowing almost 300 passing yards per game on a whopping 8.3 yards per pass play. That is not a good weakness to have against the upstart Panthers and Cam Newton. Carolina is throwing for 312 yards per game on an impressive 8.0 yards per pass. Carolina’s offense found their running game in Chicago last week as DeAngelo Williams put together his first 100-yard rushing game of the season. Atlanta’s defense will now have to worry about the run along with the potent Carolina passing attack. The Falcons could also be without DE John Abraham for a second consecutive week and his absence was huge last week in their loss to the Packers. Atlanta is still playing off of last year’s reputation; they’ve done nothing on the field to warrant being over a field goal favorite. The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS so far this season including 0-2 ATS as a favorite; their two wins this year have come by just 4 and 2 points. Carolina has played the much better football so we’ll take the points against an overrated Atlanta team.
Charlie Scott
Jaguars vs. Steelers
Play: Over 40
Since Over's are cashing at a rate greater than 65% this season, The Totals are inflated a couple of points each week. However, I feel we have a Winning Over here since the price is right and the teams matchup for an Over. The Steeler defense is suffering from injuries an old age and are a step or 2 slower this season. The way to beat JAX defense is through the pass and Steelers QB Big Ben has the weapons at skill positions to do so. For JAX on offense this is QB Gabbert's 4th NFL Start, JAX should be able to take advantage of some mismatches since the Steelers also struggle to stop the pass.
David Chan
St. Louis Blues @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks
I bet value where I see it and expect the Ducks to take care of business at home tonight.
Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller has been hot as Anaheim seeks its third straight consecutive victory.
Hiller got his 12th career shutout in Friday's 1-0 win over the Sharks on Friday:
“I worked real hard to be where I am now. I know it didn’t come back to me for free, so I know I have to keep working,” he said.
“I want to make a statement every night, no matter what happened last year. It’s nice to get these games and feel good out there. Goaltending is a lot about confidence, and it’s easier to be playing well if you start a season with these kinds of games.”
Anaheim is 13-2-0 with one tie in their last 16 home meetings vs. St. Louis; Hiller is 5-2-0 lifetime vs. it.
Jaroslav Halak gets the start in the second game of the back to back for St. Louis after it beat San Jose 4-2 last night; Halak is 1-2-0 with a 2.70 GAA; he went 1-1-0 with a 1.52 GAA against Anaheim last season.
I'm laying the price on the well rested home side!
BIG AL
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7
At 4:15 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as we will play against New Orleans, which is playing its third straight road game today. Unfortunately for Sean Payton's crew, NFL teams are a dismal 40-72 ATS on the road after playing 2 games away from home before it, if they won their previous game. With New Orleans in off a victory over Carolina, our 72-40 ATS system is satisfied. Now, even though there's nothing wrong with 64%, we can improve our system to a sweet 78% by introducing one other element. And that's to bring our 'play-on' team (here, Tampa Bay) in off a loss by more than 20 points. Last week, the Bucs fell 48-3 at San Francisco. Look for Tampa Bay to rebound off that embarassing defeat on Sunday. Take the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New Orleans Saints -6
A Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad that ranks 28th in the league in scoring with 17.4 ppg won't have enough fire power to keep pace with the explosive Saints, who rank 5th in the league with 31.4 ppg. Tampa's best chance is to grind this one out. It needs to use its running game to eat clock, but it will have trouble doing so without LeGarrette Blount, who is expected to miss at least a month with a knee injury. If the Bucs are unable to move the football, a defense that ranks 23rd in the league with 378 yards allowed per contest will be at the mercy of Drew Brees and company. The Tampa stop unit allowed San Francisco to rack up 418 yards of offense in Week 5. The 49ers entered that contest averaging just 270.8 yards per game. It certainly gets no easier for the Buccaneers as New Orleans ranks second in the league with 452 yards per game. Tampa Bay’s biggest challenge is slowing down Brees, who leads the NFC with 1,769 passing yards. The Bucs are 4-13 ATS in home games since the beginning of the 2009 season, and they are 0-8 ATS when listed as a home underdog of 7 points or less during this span. They are losing by an average score of 28.6 to 12.3 in these 8 instances. Take the Saints.
John Ryan
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
5* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take to the road to face the New England Patriots set to start at 4:15 PM ET. The neural based simulator shows a very high probability that Dallas will lose this game by seven or fewer points and has a reasonable opportunity to pull off the improbable upset win. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 38-15 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2005. Play on road teams off an upset loss as a home favorite in the first half of the season. Of the 53 plays made based on the criteria of the system 20 of them or 39.2% covered the spread by seven or more points. Supporting the upset bid is the following system that has gone 21-8 for 72.4% winners and has made 18.5 units per one unit wagered since 1983. Play against any team using the money line after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games facing an opponent after outgaining previous opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game.
Lenny Del Genio
Buffalo Bills at NY Giants
Play: NY Giants
This is your classic play against a team off a SU dog win while playing on a team off an outright loss as a favorite. The Bills burned us badly last week, upsetting the Eagles at home, despite being outgained 489-331 in total yards. They week prior saw them get outgained by the Bengals 458-273. The Bills defense is beyond lousy as they are in the bottom six in yards allowed and last in sacks. The Giants ought to be kicking themselves for losing to the Seahawks, but this line does not reflect that they are much better than Buffalo. NY is 19-7-1 ATS in the month of October. Take NY Giants.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Play: Minnesota Vikings
This just smells like an upset. With the Packers and Lions rapidly pulling away in the division, both the Bears and Vikings are already in a lot of trouble. However, Minnesota is not nearly as bad as its 1-4 record would indicate as they have two huge blown leads and are off a dominant win over Arizona. Chicago is working on a short week after losing in Detroit Monday night and a patchwork offensive line will be lucky to keep QB Cutler alive for a full season. Expect a huge game from Vikings RB Peterson against a Bears defense that just surrendered 180+ yds rushing to the Lions.
SEAN MURPHY
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
PICK: Carolina Panthers +3.5
There's not much to like when it comes to the Atlanta Falcons these days.
While they dominated the Panthers last season, we're talking about two teams in completely different places right now.
Carolina is a confident bunch, even though it has only one victory through five games. The Panthers have been competitive in each and every one of those contests, and could just as easily be 3-2 right now.
The Falcons are getting outplayed in all facets of the game right now. Even their two victories have been suspect - a narrow two-point win over the lowly Seahawks in Seattle and a come-from-behind 35-31 win over the struggling Eagles at home.
I didn't like the body language I saw from the Falcons in last Sunday night's loss to the Packers. They looked like a defeated team, even when they were still in the game.
QB Matt Ryan, who was once virtually unbeatable at home, has suddenly started turning the football over at critical times. He's already thrown six interceptions this season after being picked off only nine times all of last year.
RB Michael Turner has shown flashes of brilliance, but most of those came in the first two games of the season, when he ran for 214 yards. He's been held to 3.5 yards per rush or less in each of the last three games, and hasn't topped 100 yards rushing since Week 2.
WR Roddy White was a force last season, hauling in 115 catches for over 1,300 yards. Not so this year, as he's caught only 32 passes for 352 yards through five games.
As long as the Panthers have QB Cam Newton, they'll be a nightmare to gameplan against. While he has made his share of mistakes, he's also shown poise beyond his years, accounting for 12 touchdowns already this season. Now that Carolina has got its ground game rolling a bit as well, this is a tough offense to hold down.
I won't be surprised if this one goes right down to the wire, just as virtually all Panthers games have this season. It's tough to make a case for the Falcons laying more than a field goal against anyone, let alone an emerging, and hungry young team like the Panthers. Take Carolina.