Jack Jones
Atlanta Falcons -3
The Atlanta Falcons are undervalued right now due to their slow start to the 2011 season. Atlanta is still one of the best teams in the NFC, though their 2-3 record doesn't really show it. Because of their slow start, I will take advantage of this value Sunday and back the Falcons as a 4-point home favorite over 1-4 Carolina.
The Panthers are certainly better than expected despite their record, but as a result they are actually getting a lot of love with this line. Cam Newton is flashy and attracts a lot of attention from bettors, but the Panthers still have one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Panthers are giving up 26.4 points and 366 total yards/game this season. They weren't even competitive in two losses to the Falcons last season as Atlanta did basically whatever they wanted to offensively.
The Falcons won both meetings with the Panthers in 2010 by finals of 31-10. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with Carolina, outscoring the Panthers 104-58 and winning all three by eight points or more.
The Falcons are a very profitable 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss. Atlanta is also 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a dog, including 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road dog. Bet Atlanta Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Lions -4
Prior to San Francisco's 48-point outburst against the Bucs, it hadn't done a whole lot to write home about offensively. Rest assured, a 49ers offense that ranks 27th in the league with just 300.2 yards per game will struggle against one of the best defensive fronts in the league. The Niner defense has been very susceptible to the pass, ranking 23rd in the NFL with 264.4 yards allowed per game. That's bad news considering their up against one of the best passing attacks in the league. The Lions rank 7th with 283.8 passing yards per contest, and I see no answer in the SF secondary for wideout Calvin Johnson. The Lions are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The 49ers are 6-22-4 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Take Detroit.
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis +120 over MILWAUKEE
Forget Chris Carpenter or Yovanni Gallardo. The best starter in this series, hands down has been Edwin Jackson. Given the choice of any starting pitcher to go with in an elimination game, the Genius would pick Edwin Jackson. If this were game seven, we highly doubt that Ron Roenicke would give the ball to Shaun Marcum. Not only has Marcum been a complete disaster in the postseason, he labored his last few starts of the year as well and his mental make-up has to be fragile at this point. In his two post-season starts, Marcum did not made it out of the fifth inning in either of them. He owns a heavy fly-ball bias profile and as a result, he can’t keep balls in the park. The Brewers are tough at home indeed, but the Cardinals have a huge pitching edge in this game, both starting and bullpen and mentally speaking, the Redbirds have been doing this for over a month. Goodnight Milwaukee. Play: St. Louis +120 (Risking 2 units).
Larry Ness
Baltimore Ravens -6.5
The Baltimore Ravens are feeling pretty good about themselves at 3-1 and coming off a bye week. In comparison, the Texans just lost DE Mario Williams for the season, still will be without WR Andre Johnson (hamstring not yet ready to go) and while QB matt Schaub will play, he's got a sore shoulder. That's NEVER good new when facing the Baltimore defense which has already forced seven turnovers in Week 1 vs the Steelers and when last seen on the field (SNF vs the Jets in Week 4), forced four turnovers with THREE being returned for TDs! The Ravens limited the Jets to 150 yards of total offense in that Sunday night game and are holding opponents to an NFL-low 14.3 PPG. Baltimore ranks third in total yards (284.5 YPG) and second against the rush (72.5 YPG / 3.2 YPC). "We can be special, but it all depends on where we go from here," linebacker Terrell Suggs said. "We can't take any steps back because that's not how championship teams are built. Not in this league. You've got to make the momentum snowball." Baltimore has scored 34 points or more in THREE of its first four games but QB Joe Flacco completed just 10-of-31 passes vs the Jets and in the team's week 2 loss at Tennessee, was 15-of-32 (one TD and three INTs in those two games). However, he was excellent vs the Steelers and Rams, throwing six TDs and zero INTs while averaging 306.5 YPG. Those are the kind of efforts the Ravens will need Flacco to have if they are to make a Super Bowl run. Rice is a complete RB (267 YR / 4.5 YPC / 2 TDs plus 16 catches / 15.1 YPC / 2 TDs) and with Boldin, Flacco has a go-to guy plus a more than adequate receiving corps, overall. Schaub is having another fine season (59.8% / 275.4 YPG / 9-5 ratio) and whether it's Tate or Foster at RB, the Texans will be well-represented. Johnson's loss is huge and while the Texans acquired veteran Derrick Mason from the Jets this week to help add depth to the receiving corps, he's NO Johnson at this stage of his career. With Peyton out for the Colts (0-5 start fro Indy), this IS the year the Texans have to end their playoff drought. However, they won't get any help here, as they fall to 3-3. Lay the points with the Ravens.
Michael Alexander
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Carolina Panthers +3.5
CAROLINA is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
ATLANTA is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 6.
ATLANTA is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Lions -4
Prior to San Francisco's 48-point outburst against the Bucs, it hadn't done a whole lot to write home about offensively. Rest assured, a 49ers offense that ranks 27th in the league with just 300.2 yards per game will struggle against one of the best defensive fronts in the league. The Niner defense has been very susceptible to the pass, ranking 23rd in the NFL with 264.4 yards allowed per game. That's bad news considering their up against one of the best passing attacks in the league. The Lions rank 7th with 283.8 passing yards per contest, and I see no answer in the SF secondary for wideout Calvin Johnson. The Lions are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The 49ers are 6-22-4 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Take Detroit.
Dave Price
1 Unit on St. Louis Rams +15.5
With a bye week to prepare and knowing the effort needed to hang with the reigning champs at their place, expect an inspired performance from the Rams today. In the end, St. Louis won't have enough to get the win, but it will keep this one within two touchdowns. The time to back the Rams is now. Consider that plays on road underdogs that are being outscored by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games, are 104-59 ATS since 1983. These teams have only lost by an average of 8.3 points during this 28-year time-tested system. Also, the Packers are 6-16-2 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. We'll take the points.
OC DOOLEY
St Louis Rams +14
It is easy to see why Green Bay has been asked to lay this many points since the defending Super Bowl champions are undefeated and have successfully covered the spread consecutive weeks in National-TV affair with most of the nation watching. But it has been nearly FIFTY YEARS since the last time this proud Green Bay franchise has gotten off to such a great start which means they are starting to climb into what I will call rarified air where the “law of averages” are about to stack up. Possibly no team in the league needed a bye-week more than disappointing St. Louis who in 2010 was one victory shy of qualifying for the playoffs with the help of #1 draft pick Sam Bradford. The big news for the Rams is that star running back Steven Jackson has pronounced himself 100-PERCENT after suffering a strained quad muscle on his first carry of the regular season. Since the Rams were off last week they had extra time to further treat Jackson who has rushed for only 124 yards so far in 2011 with 47 of them coming on that first carry of the campaign. The injury bug has also nailed St. Louis on defense as they have already lost a pair of starting cornerbacks for the entire season. In an interesting twist getting the start for St. Louis today at one of the corner positions is newly signed veteran Al Harris (36 years old) who used to be employed by today’s opponent. The last time Harris started a game was a full two years ago while with Green Bay so one can assume he will have plenty of motivation. Turning to the database here is a 64-PERCENT SYSTEM (104-59 since 1983) that plays ON pathetic road underdogs like St. Louis who have been outscored on average by double-digits per contest, after scoring 7-or-less “first half” points in consecutive games. That system favors the “rested” Rams who finally have their single most important player (Steven Jackson) healthy
Real Animal
3* NY Giants -3
The Giants are in an ideal spot today coming off an embarrassing home loss to Seattle while Buffalo survived Philadelphia despite allowing 489 yards of Eagle offense. Imagine how many yards and points the Birds would have posted if you remove the five turnovers. This game is all about time in the pocket. The Bills are #32 and DEAD LAST in sacks with four on the season. This means Eli Manning will have time to throw. The same cannot be said for Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Giants lead the league in sacks with 18. I suspect turnovers will play a heavy impact on the outcome in this game. The Giants have forced six fumbles and five interceptions in addition to those 18 sacks. Buffalo is 0-8 ATS on the road in October when facing an opponent off a double-digit defeat. I don't mind Ahmad Bradshaw getting more carries for the injured Brandon Jacobs. Buffalo is #28 versus the run and #26 versus the pass. You rarely see defensive rankings like that with teams that consistently win and especially on the road. The Giants are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings in this series. Go figure it. The Giants are laying the same number at home to the Bills that the Eagles were favored at in Buffalo last Sunday. Buffalo 3-9 SU the last dozen on the road. In their last three games the Bills have lost the stats in each. In their last road game Buffalo had 273 total yards at Cincinnati. Meanwhile Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati passing attack had 287 passing yards alone (458 total). Put me down on "Big Blue" at this price off a home loss at a discounted price today.
David Banks
Minnesota / Chicago Over
Sunday night NFL action heads to the Windy City where the Chicago Bears (2-3, 1-4 ATS) will look to secure their first NFC North victory of the season against the Minnesota Vikings (1-4, 2-2-1 ATS); kick-off from Soldier Field is set for 8:20 ET on NBC.
The start of the first full season under the watchful eye of Leslie Frazier can be considered a fantastic success; that is if you only count the first 30 minutes of action per game. Even though Minnesota tallied its first win of the year last week at home against a very poor Arizona Cardinals outfit, the Vikings held halftime leads over the Chargers, Buccaneers and Lions in their first three games played. Though they ended up losing each contest, those three teams have gone on to compile a 12-3 cumulative record through the first five weeks of the season. With that the case, the talent is at hand for the Vikings to compete every passing week. The fact that they can run the ball (#3 at 160 YPG) and get pressure on opposing QBs (16 sacks) bodes well for them in this spot considering the Bears can’t stop the run or keep Jay Cutler upright.
The Chicago Bears were exposed as a team living off past glories last Monday night when they were beaten by the Detroit Lions 24-13 as 6.5-point underdogs. Though they only fell by 11 points, Chicago was beaten soundly even though it did exactly what it needed to do to win the game – limit turnovers (0) and win the time of possession battle (+18 minutes). Even with those two areas covered, Chicago still found a way to give up the big plays defensively (a 73-yard TD pass to Megatron and an 88-yard TD jaunt by Jahvid Best). Those types of big scoring plays have haunted Chicago through their first five games played, and now they have to deal with Adrian Peterson’s big play ability on the ground where they’ve given up an average of 135.6 YPG (#28). There’s no reason to even mention the offense as it’s a one-man show (Matt Forte) and putrid overall.
Chicago’s had recent success against the Vikings sweeping the season series a year ago while covering each of the division rivals last three meetings; the ‘over’ cashed in two of those contests. Minny’s 0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS away from the Metrodome to date and stands a woeful 4-10 ATS their L/14 as visitors. Chicago’s 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS as a host in 2011 and has gone 1-5-1 ATS its L/6 following a pointspread defeat. Minny’s covered just one of its L/8 trips to Soldier Field where the ‘over’ has cashed in four of these teams L/5 squabbles.