Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 17,2010

Marc Lawrence

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

As long as Houston carries on as favorites with the league’s worst defense, we’ll continue to fade them. And why not? After all, Houston continues to burn money at home in games in which it owns a .500 or greater record, going 2-11-1 ATS in its franchise history, including 0-6-1 ATS when hosting non-division opposition. They are also 0-5 ATS as home chalk against opponents that were on the road the previous week. Enter the Chiefs, the NFL’s last former undefeated team. KC’s 7-1 ATS mark as non-division dogs against opponent’s off a double-digit loss is mighty attractive. More appealing, though, is the Chiefs’ defense, one that is 89 YPG better than today’s counterpart. Take the points with the better defensive dog here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Vernon Croy

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Atlanta Falcons +2.5

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and we are getting very good line value here Sunday with thew Falcons who have the superior team at this point in the season. Atlanta is 4-1 SU on the season including 2-1 on the road with their only loss by 6 points to the Steelers in a game that they had chances to win outright. The Eagles have managed to get all of their wins on the road this season against some pretty bad teams. The Eagles last game was a road win over the 49ers in a game that the 49ers could have won big if they didn't turn the ball over 5 times. The Eagles are plagued by injuries and even if Vick does start he will not be near 100% healthy and one hit could put him back on the sideline. The Falcons come into this game healthy on offense with WR Michael Jenkins listed as probable. The Falcons are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games and the Eagles are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Grab the points with the Atlanta Falcons as my NFL Free Pick for Week 6 as they win this game outright Sunday.

Matt Fargo

Ravens vs. Patriots
Play: Under 45

It is rather surprising that the highest total on the Sunday card comes from the game that features the third ranked defense in the NFL. Obviously a lot of it has to do with the Patriots having the 29th ranked defense but even so, I feel the number is inflated. New England leads the league in scoring offense at 32.8 ppg but a lot of those points have been dumb luck as the total offense is ranked a much more pedestrian 11th, averaging 344.3 ypg. And this is with only two good games. The Patriots have played two games against solid defenses, the Jets and Dolphins and the offense struggled. Against New York, the Patriots managed only 14 points and 291 total yards while against Miami, they finished with 41 points but 21 of those points came by way of the special teams and the defense as the offense mustered only 265 total yards. This is now the best defense that New England has seen and we all saw what happened in the playoffs last season when the Patriots were held to 196 total yards. The Ravens are even worse on offense as they are tied for 22nd in scoring offense with 18.4 ppg and 19th in total offense at 328.2 ypg. They are playing well on offense at home but the road has been a different story as Baltimore is averaging just 12.3 ppg and 287 ypg. As mentioned, the New England defense has had its problems but a solid game against Miami coupled with the bye week should help. The Patriots will have a new wrinkle or two up front on their defense to slow up the running game. The gameplan for Baltimore is a simple one and that is to keep Tom Brady and the Patriots offense off the field. Offensive coordinator offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will look to control the tempo of the game by utilizing running backs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee who should be called upon early and often. New England has outrushed three of its four opponents this season and offensively, we can expect the Patriots to look to its running game as well with the departure of Randy Moss. As far as that passing game goes, look for the Patriots to use a lot of slants, short and mid-range throws, screens and tight ends to move the ball down the field. Brady won't have a lot of time so he won't be throwing the ball far down field and that helps us here as it takes away the possible big plays on offense and it also eats clock as those throws are completed at a higher percentage. Baltimore has held each of its five opponents to less than 20 points so it knows how to get it done. Baltimore is 10-1 to the ‘Under’ in its last 11 games against defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards while New England is 11-1 to the ‘Under’ in its last 12 home games following a bye week. This includes a perfect 9-0 to the ‘Under’ with head coach Bill Belichick. 3* Under Baltimore Ravens/New England Patriots

Jeff Hochman

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Dallas Cowboys +1

The Cowboys have playoff-revenge from a 34-3 pasting in last year's playoffs. Brett Favre is playing hurt and this will be the rare game that Dallas forces turnovers. Favre is slow in the pocket so look for the Cowboys' front seven to cause fits all day. [QB Rating Tony Romo: 92.7 QB Rating Brett Favre: 67.0] Trap line. Take Dallas!

Wunderdog Sports

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos +3

Last week there was a very "obvious" bet on the board - how could you not take the Packers at just -2.5 over the Redskins? How did that work out for Green Bay? We were on Washington in that one. This week there's another very obvious one. How can you not back the mighty Jets (the best team in the league according to many people) at just -3 over the lowly 2-3 Broncos? Last week the line begged you to take the Packers as a small favorite and we see the same thing here. Beware the call of the siren! The public isn't heeding this warning, lining up 3-to-1 on New York. The Jets are off to a big start, and a big Monday Night football win. But the injury issues on the defensive side are taking their toll. The Jets have done a great job against the run, but they are getting torched in their secondary and, having Darelle Revis ailing just isn't helping matters. The Jets are ranked just 23rd in the league against the pass, allowing 235 yards per game. That plays right into Denver's strength, as Kyle Orton is having a huge year. Orton has thrown for over 1,700 yards already. To put that in perspective, at this pace he would shatter Dan Marino's single season record of 5,084 yards. While inexperienced quarterbacks can get in trouble against a blitzing Jets team, but experienced calm QBs can find the open man one-on-one. The Broncos also may get a boost having Knowshon Moreno back in the backfield. Mark Sanchez has done an excellent job running the Jets offense as he is yet to throw an interception through five weeks. The Jets are content to run the ball and Sanchez is making a lot of safe throws resulting in just six yards per pass attempt. Sooner or later the teams are going to start putting eight in the box and daring the Jets to take chances and that is where Sanchez has typically gotten into trouble. The Broncos are rarely a home underdog and usually rise to the occasion in this situation as they own a 9-4-1 ATS mark as a home dog. In their last 62 home games vs. winning teams, Denver is 40-22 ATS. That includes a 10-2 ATS mark vs. teams like the Jets that have outscored their competition by 10+ ppg. Yes, the Jets are very very good. But this is a bad spot for them and the line is telling us something. If you can get +3.5 at -120 odds I recommend that. If not, you'll get +3 at even odds.

The Wiseguys

Chiefs at Texans
Play: Under 44.5

After Week 2 in the NFL this season, the Houston Texans were the chic new title contender in the AFC. After all, Houston had beaten the nemesis Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, 34-24, behind an epic game from new starting running back Arian Foster, who rushed for 231 yards and three touchdowns -- Foster had the NFL's second-best opening weekend rushing performance since 1933, topped only by O.J. Simpson's 250 for Buffalo in 1973 against New England. He also surpassed Domanick Davis' team record of 158 yards, set in 2004 at Jacksonville.

So it seemed Houston’s long-time problem of finding a running game was fixed.

Then in Week 2, Matt Schaub showed why it appeared he had reached the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks after leading the league in passing yards in 2009. After throwing for just 107 yards against Indy – in large part because the Texans were running so well – Schaub led a huge comeback at Washington. Schaub was 38-for-52 for 497 yards with three touchdowns in the 30-24 overtime victory. Schaub became just the fourth quarterback in the last 50 years to throw for at least 475 yards and have a completion percentage of at least 70 percent.

OK, now Houston’s offense looked unstoppable.

However, three weeks later and the Texans are 3-2, having been beaten soundly two of the past three weeks at home by an NFC East team – including the Dallas Cowboys’ only win. Schaub has been very average in those three games, throwing three total TDs to go with three picks. And a closer look at his numbers reveals a potential concern that maybe Schaub was a one-year wonder.

Last season, he threw for at least 250 yards in 13 of 16 games and had a QB rating of at least 80 in 14 of 16. This season, he has thrown only for at least 250 yards in one game and has had a QB rating of less than 78 three times. In Houston’s two losses, to the Cowboys and Giants, his ratings were 77.7 and 53.1, respectively. In the opener it was 67.5. Schaub closed last season completing better than 60 percent of his passes in 12 consecutive games. He has been at 55.2 percent or lower three times this year. Through five games in 2009 Schaub had 11 touchdowns and five picks. Through five games this year it’s seven scores and five picks.

It’s not all his fault. The Texans rushed for a franchise-record low 24 yards in the loss to the Giants. And star wide receiver Andre Johnson hasn’t been 100 percent but for maybe one full game. And the defense hasn’t been very good, allowing 409.2 yards a game.

We should find out about Houston this week when it faces an overachieving Chiefs team that has not allowed more than 20 points yet this year (K.C. is +4.5), then the Texans are off in Week 7. Then out of the bye is another potentially huge game with the Colts. If Schaub hasn’t snapped out if it by then, you are probably looking at another playoff-less season in Houston.

Regardless of how the Texans fare, a low scoring contest is in order. It is the only way the Chiefs can compete into the fourth quarter. The Texasn were outscored by a combined 38 points in home losses to the Cowboys and Giants keeping the oddsmakers opening over/under in the mid-40s. Houston will be hosting a KC team that wants to control the clock and avoid giving up the big play. The Texans will have to sustain long drives, something they’ve been unable to do lately. The good news is that Houston’s greatest weakness – their defensive secondary – should be able to contain Matt Cassel and a drop-happy K.C. receiving corps. Take the UNDER 44.5 points now before the current over/under crumbles.

Teddy Covers

Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
PICK: Miami Dolphins +3.5

I’m not a huge trend player, but this is one angle with a truly impressive track record that makes a lot of sense to this bettor. The concept is simple – we look to bet on teams coming off a bye that got blasted at home prior to their break. Since 1999, NFL teams that allowed 35+ at home before the bye are 16-3-1 ATS in their next game.

That’s a trend worth riding here as the Dolphins travel to Green Bay. Miami was downright humiliated in back-2-back national TV divisional losses at home to the Jets and Patriots prior to their bye. Their problems in those games – poor red zone execution, poor special teams execution and poor pass coverage – are solvable with extra time to concentrate on those issues. We know that Miami can win on the road – they won and covered at Buffalo and Minnesota in their only two previous road games of the season. And there’s no reason to expect anything but an inspired effort from the Dolphins here.

Even though Aaron Rodgers has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for the Packers on Sunday, Green Bay is still most assuredly riddled with key injuries. They’ve been unable to move the chains on the ground thanks to a cluster injury situation at running back. Their offensive line is banged up with Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton question marks again this week. Tight ends Jermichael Finley and Donald Lee got hurt last week; leaving a once potent attack in search of healthy bodies right now.

But the Packers defensive injuries are the real problem area. Linebacker Nick Barnett, safeties Morgan Burnett and Derrick Martin and defensive end Justin Harrell are all on injured reserve, out for the year. Linebackers Brandon Chillar and Clay Matthews are unlikely to suit up this week. Pass rushers Ryan Pickett and Mike Neal are question marks as well.

When we factor in a possible lookahead to a huge Sunday Night revenge game against division rival Minnesota (who beat them twice last year) on tap for next week, the case against these banged up Packers is very clear. There is no rush to bet this game – expect $$ to come on Green Bay once it’s official that Rodgers is starting. 2* Take Miami.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Chargers @ Rams
PICK: Over 45

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":

San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in 4 of its first 5 games; last week it lost to Oakland 35-27, the total sailing above the posted number of 44.

The Chargers have made it a habit of starting slow over the last few years, and once again they are following that familiar pattern as they sit at 2-3 on the season after last week's collapse.

San Diego is blessed with a dynamic offense, however it's struggling with its special teams play and is plagued by turnovers and a porous defensive unit.

Important to note, dating back to last season the Chargers have seen the total go "over" the number in 4 of their last 6 on the road; also, over the last two seasons San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in both games its played off a loss against a division rival; also in 7 of 10 non-conference contests; also in 17 of 28 when playing the roll of favorite.

On the other side of the field: The Rams have seen the total go "over" the number in 2 of their first 5 games; last week they were annihilated 44-6 by the Lions, the total going over the number of 43 1/2.

The best word to describe rookie Sam Bradford's start to his NFL career I think would be: "inconsistent".

But hey…he's looked a lot better than the legendary "junk exposer" Brett Favre.

I look for Bradford to settle down at home here as he'll look to take advantage of the suspect Chargers secondary.

St. Louis looked brutal on the defensive side of the ball last week; both the pass and rush defense were virtually non-existent in the loss to the Lions.

And that's horrible news for a team set to face Philip Rivers who had 431 yards passing with two TD's and a 114.3 QB rating last week.

Very pertinent to point out that over the last two years the Rams have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in 4 of their last 5 as a home dog of 7 1/2 to 10-points.

Bottom line: It's also interesting to note that in 5 of these teams last 5 vs. each other, regardless of the location, the total has indeed gone "over" the number.

When taking into account all of the above factors, you may want to consider a second look at the "over" in this situation.

Larry Ness

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Dallas Cowboys +1.5

They are calling the Cowboys/Vikings matchup this Sunday the "Panic Bowl" because the loser will fall into a nearly impossible 1-4 'hole' to climb out of. Given the stakes, I think it will be the Cowboys who find a way to win this contest. It is clear that something is not right with Brett Favre. Whether it is the distraction of his off-the-field controversy or the tendonitis in his throwing elbow (or BOTH), Favre is clearly off his game. Having to play this crucial game on a short week is not the ideal of situations for the ailing 41-year old QB. Adrian Peterson is carrying his share of the load, averaging 5.5 YPC this season. The problem has been the passing attack, as the Vikings are just 21st in the NFL by passing for 198.8 YPG. Even worse, Minnesota is scoring only 15.8 PPG which is just 29th in the league. Randy Moss' presence on the field will help but it is still going to take some time for him to learn the intricacies of the west coast offense (that he has never played in). The Cowboys have had a little easier time of getting points on the board, as they are scoring 20.2 PPG. Frankly, Dallas should be scoring more points, since the Cowboys are NFL's 2nd-leading team in offensive yardage (421.5 YPG) and 3rd in the NFL in passing (326.2 YPG). This is nothing new, as Dallas ranked 2nd in total yards last year (399.4 YPG) but ranked just 14th in scoring (22.6 PPG). Points should eventually come to any offense moving the ball so much. The Jets were able to run for 155 yards against Minnesota last week, which is an encouraging sign for the Cowboys' offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. Dallas CAN run the ball but this year it's been a struggle. The other reason that I like the Cowboys to 'survive' this game is the fact that they will have the recent memory of the Vikings' decisive 34-3 win over them in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. Favre was a steady 15 of 24 for 234 yards and four TD passes in that game and it is VERY difficult to see him coming close to repeating that performance here. The Cowboys accumulated 511 total yards against the Titans last week, despite losing 34-27. They are MUCH closer to fixing their problems and getting on a roll than Minnesota, given the current state of the Vikings. Dallas' defense should rebound with a better game in this situation since the Cowboys have covered the pointspread in 12 of their last 15 games when looking to tighten things up after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game. Dallas will obtain some measure of revenge from their playoff loss in Minnesota last January by surviving this "Panic Bowl" and 'live' to see another day.

Info Plays

3* on Oakland Raiders +7

Reasons the Raiders cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. This is a 36-11 ATS System hitting 76.6% over the last 10 seasons.

2.) Let's not forget the 49ers are 0-5. Sure, they are due for a win, but no way in hell should they be favored by nearly a touchdown against a Raiders team that is playing well this season. Only once have they been blown out, with two of their three losses coming by 7 points to the Texans and 1 point to the Cardinals. They won't get blown out Sunday like this line would indicate. Bet the Raiders on the road.

Carlo Campanella

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
Play: Baltimore Ravens +3

Baltimore (4-1) continues to build confidence in their new offensive weapons, WRs Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzeh, who combined for 4 Touchdown catches over the last 3 games. Last Sunday, the Ravens amassed 415 total offensive yards while scoring 31 points last while beating the Denver Bronco and the recent jolt to the offense has allowed these Ravens to hand Pittsburgh (3-1) and the NY Jets (4-1) their only losses of the season. New England put up 38 and 41 points in their last two games, however, QB Brady and the offense has not accounted for their fair share of the scoring as most of those 79 points came by special teams and defensive scoring. New England hosts this game following their "Bye" week, but we find Head Coach Belichick at a losing 8-11 ATS when playing with a week of rest. With the rust setting in from their "Bye" week, combined with the Ravens' defense allowing just 14.4 points per game this season, we expect QB Brady to struggle in their return against a Ravens' squad that's 8-1 ATS as road Dogs of 3 points or less.

RANDALL THE HANDLE

Seahawks (2-2) at Bears (4-1)

Anyone that saw Todd Collins as Jay Cutler’s stand-in last week will be ecstatic that the latter will return to pilot Chicago ’s offence. How quickly we forget that the same Jay Cutler, on the Sunday previous, was last seen grazing field turf after the Giants sacked him nine times in one half. To remedy this, the Bears will attempt their fourth different combination of offensive linemen in five games. That can’t be a good thing. Granted, the ineptitude of the Seahawks when traveling is well documented but with a handful of points to play with and having had an extra week to prepare, this opportunity is one that we can hardly pass up on. TAKING: SEATTLE +6 ½

Ravens (4-1) at Patriots (3-1)

This barely seems fair. The Ravens play their fourth road game in six weeks while the Patriots had the luxury of their bye week while plotting for the scoundrels that recently handed them their first-ever home playoff loss during the Tom Brady era. While the Ravens are not to be intimidated, they might have their hands full with a vengeful Bill Belichick. The Patriots are extra-motivated and considering that New England has won seven straight after its bye, we can expect a full arsenal from host. Baltimore has struggled putting up points on the road this season with just 37 in three games. It won’t get any easier here. TAKING: NEW ENGLAND –3

Colts (3-2) at Redskins (3-2)

We know what you’re thinking. Why are the Colts such a small favourite over a Redskins team whose play resembles that of a Saturday afternoon pickup game? If Matt Schaub threw for 468 against this Washington secondary, how many yards will Peyton Manning accumulate? And how can the ‘Skins control the clock and keep Manning off the field with a ground unit averaging a mere 88 yds. per game? Well, this is football and when you are taking home points with a team that plays to the final gun and with a squad that defeated both Dallas and Green Bay on this field, in addition to playing to OT with the Texans, you put the stats sheet away and go with the grit. TAKING: WASHINGTON +3

THE REST:

Chiefs (3-1) at Texans (3-2)

The Texans are about as trustworthy as Bernie Madoff. Despite oodles of talent, they can’t get over the hump of mediocrity. Still, this will be second of consecutive home games and after loss to Giants and with three of next four away, we’ll give them yet another chance to make fools of us. TAKING: HOUSTON –4 ½

Saints (3-2) at Buccaneers (3-1)

We’re all familiar with the Super Bowl hangover. This is more like a migraine. New Orleans has yet to cover a spread and its three wins came by a combined 10 points. The running game is non-existent with just one rushing touchdown on the year. Can’t spot with Saints right now. TAKING: TAMPA BAY +4 ½

Falcons (4-1) at Eagles (3-2)

This one smells of fowl play. The Falcons hit the road for third time in four weeks and while their record may be impressive, it could easily have been quite different if not for several breaks along the way. Oddly, the Eagles have won all three on road and have yet to win here. Trend reverses here. TAKING: PHILADELPHIA –3

Lions (1-4) at Giants (3-2)

The Lions may have just one win in five tries but they’ve been money with four covers in same set. The Giants are displaying improvement after sloppy start but spotting big points is not their thing, especially when they’ve allowed 29 points or more in all but one game. TAKING: DETROIT +10

Browns (1-4) at Steelers (3-1)

Yes, Ben Roethlisberger returns to the lineup for the Steelers. And yes, injuries have forced the Browns to go with rookie QB Colt McCoy. Still, Cleveland will be pumped for this one and after sacking Ben eight times in last meeting, the Brownies have the confidence to compete. TAKING: CLEVELAND +13½

Jets (4-1) at Broncos (2-3)

The Jets are playing their third road game in four weeks in addition to having to travel on short week after arduous win over Vikes. New York has a week off after this one but could lose focus prior. Denver ’s dynamic passing game can certainly soar against a hurting Jets secondary. TAKING: DENVER +3

Raiders (2-3) at San Francisco (0-5)

The bait is dangling here as the winless Niners are favoured by nearly a touchdown and that offering would usually attract many fish. However, we’ll swim by as the Raiders have been the recipients of many gratuitous bounces and when their luck runs out, their 24th ranked defence still remains. TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO –6½

Chargers (2-3) at Rams (2-3)

If you think this is an easy task for the supposedly superior Chargers, think again. Not only was San Diego favoured on the road in Kansas City , Seattle and Oakland , they managed to lose each game straight up. Until the Bolts smarten up, we’ll fade them in these types of situations. TAKING: ST. LOUIS +8 ½

Cowboys (1-3) at Vikings (1-3)

Both these teams sitting at 1-3 must be very pleased with themselves. One will get off the mat here while the other may wave the white flag when it’s done. Given the circumstances surrounding both and the revenge factor favouring Dallas after being humiliated 34-3 in playoffs last year, we’ll lean Cowgirls. TAKING: DALLAS +1½

Dolphins (2-2) at Packers (3-2)

Packer fans should be wearing shredded cheese on their heads these days as Green Bay continues to pile up injuries to key players. The effects have been evident as the Pack have struggled with makeshift lineup. A rested Miami bunch is preferred over crippled opponent. TAKING: MIAMI + ???

Titans (3-2) at Jaguars (3-2)

With first place in division on the line, this suddenly isn’t such a bad Monday nighter. What makes it even better is receiving points with a Jaguars team that won here by a decisive 37-17 count last year while fading a Tennessee team that has just one cover in past 11 against winning teams. TAKING: JACKSONVILLE +3

SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle +7 over CHICAGO

How about them Bears! Conceivably, with the Seachickens, Redskins and Bills on deck (the first two in Chicago) the Bears could be 7-1 after eight weeks. If disaster doesn’t strike before then, it will after because this team is a complete fraud and there’s nothing that suggests otherwise. They beat the Panthers last week by a 23-6 count but that’s only because the Panthers forgot to show up. The Bears had 29 yards passing, they took advantage of three turnovers and a slew of miscues and snuck out with an ugly and unimpressive win. They also have wins over the Pack, Cowboys and Lions and it’s no secret that the Seahawks are one of the worst road teams ever. In fact, Seattle has lost both of its road games this season by scores of 31-14 and 20-3. So, with a 4-1 record and a home game against Seattle with Jay Cutler returning, why are the Bears just a 6½-7 point favorite when the Giants are a 10-point favorite over Detroit and the Steelers a 14-point favorite over the Brownies? The reason is because the oddmakers also know that the Bears are complete frauds and they would love to see all the Bear money come pouring in this week. Chicago has no offensive line, its defense is about as average as it gets and they’re simply not to be trusted as a TD favorite over anyone. The Seahawks are a garbage team with more young and inexperience than any team in the league. That information is not exclusive to us and so we ask again, why are the Bears not more than 6 or 6½? We get a +7 at Sportsinteraction but we have to lay 20 cents today. By Sunday, we’ll very likely get +7 and have to lay a lot less than 20 cents so wait until Sunday to make this wager. Play: Seattle +7 (Risking 2.4 units to win 2). We’ll update this line Sunday.

SAN FRANCISCO –6½ over Oakland

Surely the 49ers aren’t as bad as its 0-5 record indicates and laying 6½-points with them appears to be ridiculous. It’s not. The Raiders have been extremely fortunate and they’re in a very unfavorable spot here. You see, they rallied from nine down to beat the Chargers, a team that they lost 13 straight to prior to last week. That was an emotionally charged win and they won because the Chargers special teams are a complete and utter train-wreck. Oakland has now played four intense and close games in a row and it was surely capped off with last week’s aforementioned victory. The Raiders also have the Broncos on deck in another important divisional game and this is the week they exhale and that its luck runs out. The 49ers were something close to a consensus preseason favorite to win the NFC West but waved goodbye to that status with another listless, albeit close loss against the Eagles last week. They’ve been humiliated at least twice and with all that talent it simply cannot last. The 49ers have big playmakers, they have a solid defense and they can kiss its season goodbye with a loss here. That’s not going to happen. San Francisco may have its problems, but this is a team that was picked to win the NFC West for a reason. The talent is there and you can bet the intense Singletary will have this group ready to play just like he did when they went into Atlanta two weeks ago and should have won. Raiders are ripe. Play: San Francisco –6½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

NEW ENGLAND –2½ over Baltimore

One thing we can assure you is that the Patriots had this game circled on their calendar as soon as the schedule came out. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were humiliated by these Ravens in last year’s playoffs and you can be damn sure that Belichick has had his clipboard out ever since in preparation for this one. The Ravens play their fourth road game in six weeks while the Patriots had the luxury of their bye week. Again, the Patriots are extra-motivated and considering that New England has won seven straight after its bye, we can expect a full arsenal from them here. Nobody hates to lose more than Brady and Belichick and while the Pats defense leaves plenty to be desired, this is the Patriots signature game of the season. With so much at stake in terms of where they stand after last year’s embarrassing exit, do not count at the fiercely competitive and talented Brady. Also note the Patriots two weeks to prepare and the distraction of Randy Moss out of the equation. Play: New England –3 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

WASHINGTON +3½ over Indianapolis

These types of games on unappealing teams like the Redskins are what make this sport so difficult to wager on. The Skins are getting it done through smoking mirrors and everyone is aware of that. So are the odds makers. It’s not easy to pull the trigger on the Redskins here because it’s just not the practical thing to do. Every individual that follows this sport can tell you that the Colts and Peyton Manning should rip apart these Redskins, especially on a Sunday night in a nationally televised game. You can analyze this game to your blue in the face and you’re going to come up with the same result, that being that the Colts should win comfortably. You don’t need us to tell you that. But alas, the NFL does not work that way and that was never more apparent than last week when the putrid Cardinals beat the Champs and the Raiders rallied from nine down to beat the Chargers. This one has that same odor to it and we’ll go back to an old cliché that states if it looks to good to be true, back off. Play: Washington +3½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

James Patrick Sports

Browns vs. Steelers

The Steelers game begins a stretch over the next three games where the Browns face six of the past nine Super Bowl champions in Pittsburgh (10/17), New Orleans (10/24) and New England (11/7). So far this season, the Browns have faced the second toughest schedule in the league as their opponents have a combined (16-7) (.696) record. Cleveland continues its stretch of facing some of the most elite quarterbacks in the NFL. The seven quarterbacks the Browns are scheduled to face from Weeks 4-11 have a combined (335-186) (.643) career record, including this week’s opponent Ben Roethlisberger, who is (60-26) (.698) as a starter. The Browns have faced the Steelers more than any other team in franchise history with (114) regular season matchups. Pittsburgh holds a (58-56) edge in the all-time series with a (36- 21) advantage at home. The teams split the season series last year with the Steelers taking the first meeting, (27-14), at Heinz Field. In the next meeting, Cleveland snapped a 12-game losing streak to Pittsburgh with a (13-6) decision. Even with Cleveland being hit some untimely injuries we'll take Cleveland Browns and double digits in this rivalry game as the Browns Defense of Rob Ryan always comes to play.