EZWINNERS
Pittsburgh Steelers -14
This is a tough spot for the Browns who catch the Steelers coming off of their bye week and Big Ben is back under center for Pittsburgh. To make things worse for Cleveland is the fact that they are starting third string quarterback rookie Colt McCoy due to injuries to Jake Delhome and Senaca Wallace. What a way to have to make your pro debut by facing the Steelers defense in Pittsburgh! McCoy played so bad in the pre season that it was questionable if he was even going to make the Browns team. The Steelers defense will not doubt show McCoy why they are called Blitzburgh. Nobody stops the run better than the Steelers so Peyton Hillis and company will not be able to take the pressure off of McCoy. The Browns will have to try to move the ball through the air and that will spell doom for Cleveland. Laying double digit points in the NFL is a money losing proposition in the long run, but it looks good to me in this spot. Lay the points.
Craig Trapp
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -14
Steelers have maybe the most difficult defense to figure out for young QB's, which spells bad news for new starter for Browns, Mccoy. Also big Ben is back so the offense will be hitting on all cylinders. Don't worry about this big # PIT scores on defense and special teams to put this one way out of reach.
Brad Diamond
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles Atlanta Falcons
When the Falcons visit Philadelphia on Sunday they will carry a 4-1 record into action with a 4 game winning streak at stake. Atlanta is in first place inside the NFC South. The Eagles travel back from the west coast after a Sunday game with San Francisco. Philadelphia is 3-2 and tied for first place in the NFC East. Here is a complete game analysis, including point spread projections.
ATLANTA FALCONS (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Key Loss
Week #1 the Falcons dropped a 15-9 OT game in Pittsburgh. Since then Atlanta has played four so-so entities, Arizona, New Orleans, San Francisco and Cleveland with the least efficient being the 0-5 Niners.
Last Week
The Falcons are off a come from behind win over the Cleveland Browns in Cleveland. Atlanta did catch a major break when QB Seneca Wallace of Cleveland went down with a injury forcing the inconsistent and depressed Jake Dellhomme into action. The veteran went 13-23 with 2 interceptions, the final one a 41-yard TD by defensive end Kroy Biermann of the Falcons. The Falcons are now 20-1 with a lead going into the fourth quarter. WR Michael Jenkins did not play for Atlanta. The Falcons have played opponents with a 10-14 SU mark.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS)
Key Loss:
Week #1 the Eagles lost a 27-20 encounter to Green Bay, who sacked current starting QB Kevin Kolb, forcing the now injured Michael Vick into action. The Eagles have faced opponents with a 7-13 SU record.
Last Week
Last Sunday night Philadelphia went into San Francisco and defeated the upstart Niners 27-24. It was not a classic football game, but one that showed the reasons why San Francisco has yet to win a football game. Actually, the Eagles had been one of the NFL leaders in penalties, but fortunately changed character with only 5 flags for 30 yards. Philly received a solid effort from Kolb who finished with 21 completions on 31 attempts with two touchdowns. QB Michael Vick did not play. The Eagles suffered a major injury loss on the defensive line with Broderick Bunkley going down for the season. With the injury to left offensive tackle Jason Peters, the Birds used King Dunlap as a substitution. Dunlap is far from a competent replacement, forcing Kolb to roll right a little too much. Finally, the Eagles faulty special teams gave SF solid field position consistently.
Last 7 Meetings
2009 - Philadelphia (-4) 34-7 (Home) Atlanta
2008 - (Home) Philadelphia (-9.5) 27-14 Atlanta
2006 - (Home) Philadelphia (-9) 24-17 Atlanta
2005 - (Home) Atlanta (+ 1.5) 14-10 Philadelphia
2005 - (Home) Philadelphia (-5.5) 27-10 Atlanta
2003 - Philadelphia (-6) 23-16 (Home) Atlanta
2003 – (Home) Philadelphia (- 7.5) Atlanta
SERIES SU RECORD:
Eagles 16-11-1
GAME PROJECTIONS
The wild card in this affair is QB Michael Vick, who has not practiced (Thursday) this week. But, the talented athlete has said, “not to count him out.” As of now Kevin Kolb (21-31, 227) will once again lead the Eagles attack. His performance against the 49ers might have given HC Andy Reid a false sense of security. Wake up Big Red here come the fluid Falcons with “Matty Ice” leading the charge. The Falcons are the worst kind of opponent for the Eagles defense. QB Matt Ryan and his skill set lead the NFL in extended drives, an angle that can decimate a blitz happy defense like Philadelphia. Ryan, Turner, Jenkins, Gonzales and White should be too much for an Eagles defense, even with corner Asante Samuel back in the lineup. Also, we note the Falcons will use short crossing patterns to exploit MLB Bradley who is off an ACL injury and simply can’t cover the mid-area effectively. Remember, the Eagles have suffered on defense ever since former DC Jimmy Johnson passed away from cancer. He was the glue that kept the defense focused. On the other hand, the Atlanta defense has been super allowing just 14 points per game.
TECHNICAL NOTES
Atlanta is 3-0 SU in the NFC, while Philadelphia is 2-2 SU in conference. Philadelphia is 0-2 SU this season at home, Atlanta 2-1 SU away. Atlanta has covered 14 of 21 going back to 2009, while the Eagles are running at 0-7 ATS as a chalk off a SU win, but an ATS defeat. Although Philly is 8-2 ATS in the series, the Falcons play into 27-point REVENGE after being thrashed by the Eagles last year.
CONCLUSION
Atlanta Falcons 24 Philadelphia 17
Play: Atlanta/UNDER
Chip Chirimbes
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Seattle Seahawks +7
A game of imposters takes place where the phoney 4-1 Chicago Bears host the 2-3 Seattle Seahawks where boy teams have quarterback issues. Even with Jay Cutler the Bears have been out-gained by opponents by 15 yards a games and the Seahawks have been out-gained by 97 yards per game. Seattle has added Marshawn Lynch to improve their running game and the Bears will bench Todd Collins (4 int's vs Panthers last week) so both teams my be better, but, not all that good. Peter Carroll has had two weeks to get his bunch ready...at least they'll cover the points!
Spartan
NOS -4 vs TAM
Tampa Bay, along with the Kansas City Chiefs are a real surprise to most observers with their 3-1 start to the young season. I am glad to say I had the upstart Buc's as one of my paid releases last week when they ventured into Cincinnati and added to the Bengals misery and Marvin Lewis's sleepless nights. The Buc's are getting maximum return on marginal talent, at least so far. Now they return home and apparently the home fans aren't convinced yet as the game is slated for a blackout. The Saints are struggling out of the gate as many defending super bowl champs do, but trust me, they are still a very salty club capable of putting down the upstart Buc's this sunday. On paper one would think the Saints had done nicely last week at Arizona but whether you're sporting a super bowl ring or not the stubborn fact is that turnovers kill. You go on the road in the NFL and turn the ball over four times and you are not going to prevail. This is too well a coached team and still too talented to continue sputtering along like this. I'm still not sold on Buc's QB Josh Freeman, have followed Freeman since his days playing for Ron Prince at Kansas State, he has the physical tools but also the uncanny ability to turn the ball over at the worst possible moments. Fact is the Saints are an impressive 11-3 against the number off an ATS loss. Couple that with the Buc's miserable 2-11 ATS mark at home and although I'm no trend geek that one has some legs. I look for Sean Payton to have his troops ready to play their game and that is sufficient to leave Tampa with a reality check. Laying the four points with the Champs here is the smart play guys.
JR O'Donnell
SFX -7 vs OAK
The Oakland Raiders are sky high after last week but if you look deep into the #'s and box scores the Raiders had some special teams huge plays that are very misleading. Throw in 2 blocked punts and 2 defensive Td's vs. the Sandy Chargers and that will sway the betting public onto the Oakland Raiders this Sunday + the 7 . We love dangerous dogs, but this dog (the Raiders) has no bite! The San Fran Niners have value this week as the Niners played a poor first half vs. the Eagles, gave away 2 big fumbles and to his credit "Alex Smith" played very well at the end of that Eagles ballgame.
The Raiders will be in trouble this week with a mistake free Alex Smith and a slashing Frank Gore that does not fumble the rock! Last week they turned the ball over 5 times in the loss to the Eagles. The Niners misfortunes have been mainly because of the -10 turnover margin and they can win this ballgame today @ home!! The 2 headed Qb approach by the Raiders with Campbell & Gradkowski will not get in done vs a team here in the San Fran Niners who are on a mission! The #'s check in here @ a power rating variance of San Fran - 10 and the 49er's are a smooth 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. loss. On the flip side, the Raiders check in here @ are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. Niners by 10!!!
Tom Freese
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 1-3 this year. QB Tony Romo has passed for 7 touchdowns but he has thrown 5 interceptions. The Cowboys are 12-3 ATS their last 15 after allowing more than 30 points in their last game. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 1-3 this year. For my money Brett Favre should walk away from the game. He has more interceptions than touchdowns this year. The Vikings are 2-5 ATS their last 7 October games and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as favorites of 0-5 to 3.0
Scott Rickenbach
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Dogs ruled the day last Sunday in the NFL and that included the Buccaneers upsetting the Bengals in Cincinnati and the Cardinals upsetting the Saints in Arizona. That has set this one up beautifully. New Orleans was done in by wasted opportunities and key turnovers. Statistically speaking, the Saints should have had a huge lead and rolled to the win over the Cardinals last week. That is helping to give us some line value here as it's keeping this line a little lower than it should be. The Saints need to re-assert themselves this week and the Bucs don't have the offensive weaponry to keep up.
With the line under a TD, New Orleans should prove to be a worthy investment on Sunday afternoon as they bounce back huge while Tampa Bay gets caught still celebrating their upset win of last week. The Bucs benefited from four turnovers at Cincy last week while the Saints were done in by four turnovers at Arizona last week. New Orleans outgained the Cardinals by 179 yards last week and yet lost the game by double digits. Look for their yardage dominance this week to properly translate to the scoreboard. Consider a small play on New Orleans minus the points early on Sunday afternoon.
Rob Vinciletti
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Cleveland Browns +13.5
Last week, the NFL went 6-1 combined. Free system club play below. On Sunday, the NFL system club play is on the Cleveland Browns at 1:00 eastern. The Browns fit a nice non-divisional system that plays on certain teams off a non-divisional loss vs an opponent that is off a division loss. The points appear to be to many for the Steelers to cover today. Pittsburgh maybe getting starting QB Rothlisberger back. However, it may some time before he is completely in sync with his offense. Cleveland should be able to hang around and grab the cover in this one.
Tom Stryker
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
PICK: Baltimore Ravens +3
Respect is given to the fact that New England quarterback Tom Brady has nailed 22 straight in the regular season inside the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Unfortunately, it won't be enough to keep me off Baltimore in this contest.
The Patriots have won a few games lately but their defense is a mess. Head coach Bill Belichick's stop unit is allowing an average of 24 points and 385 total yards per game. That's just not going to be good enough matched up against a Ravens offensive attack that can beat you on the ground or through the air.
Facing this tenacious Baltimore stop unit will be a tall order for the Pats too especially without WR Randy Moss to stretch the field. The Ravens have allowed an average of only 14.4 points and 258 total yards per game and they'll be revved up and ready to stop QB Brady's new bunch of weapons. Let's take a peek inside the numbers
As a non-division road dog, the Black Birds have posted a profitable 32-20 ATS record in their last 52 lined games (35-16-1 ATS to the under too) and they own the defense needed to win this game straight up on the field. Meanwhile, New England is a soft 9-19-1 ATS when favored against an opponent that sports a won/loss percentage of .780 or better including a woeful 6-16-1 ATS in this role coming off a straight up win.
It didn't take much for the Ravens to beat the Pats in the Playoffs last season. Sure, the revenge factor is important to note and that may tempt some into siding with New England here. But, the reality of that fact is the Black Birds dropped six straight in this series before that victory and they still have a bone to pick with this Pats team. The better defense will be the key to this AFC matchup and the Ravens own that unit hands down. Take Baltimore.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New York Jets -3
I know the Jets have had one less day to prepare for this one off a big Monday Night Football win over Minnesota. And I know they are on the road playing in Denver's high altitude. But I believe the Jets find a way to win and cover this afternoon. The problem I have with Denver is that it is too one dimensional on offense. The Broncos are going to run the football, and that means that Rex Ryan's defense gets to go after Kyle Orton all day long. I like Rex Ryan's defense in that matchup. Defensively, the Broncos were gashed by Baltimore's running attack last week, giving up 233 yards on the ground. This week, the Broncos have an even better running game to deal with. Led by LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, the Jets boast the NFL's No. 1 rushing attack, again. With NY controlling the clock on offense and pressuring Orton on defense, I like its chances laying a small number here. Plus, the Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Take the Jets.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit in Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
Atlanta has found a way to win 4 in a row, but it has been lucky to win the last couple weeks. This is where I see Atlanta's winning streak coming to an end. Kevin Kolb gained a lot of confidence with a solid performance in a win at San Francisco last week, and I expect him to be even better today. The Eagles are yet to win in front of their home fans this season, so they will be very focused and hungry this afternoon. Plus, Philly has had Atlanta's number. Dating back to 2000, the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in home games against the Falcons, winning these contests by an average score of 27 to 11. These two teams have played each of the last two seasons, and both games resulted in double digit wins for the Eagles. Last season, Philly hammered Atlanta 34-7 on the road. Considering the favorite has won 6 of the last 8 ATS, and considering the Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3 points or less, I'll lay the points with Philly today.
Sports Insights.
St. Louis Rams vs. San Diego Chargers
This week's NFL sports marketplace selection is interesting. Sometimes we pick very lopsided games that are also heavily-bet. Other times, we see clear indications of "sharp money" getting down on a "live dog." This week, we'll rely on one of our offshore contacts, who circled this game because of "line value" that the general public is creating -- based on what he called "public perceptions and reputations that stick."
The public "knows" that San Diego is one of the elite teams in the NFL. The public also "knows" that the Rams are one of the worst teams in the league. Last year, the Chargers were a 13-3 playoff team, while the Rams had the NFL's worst record at 1-15. This year, the Chargers again boast a prolific offense (#1 in the NFL in offensive yards, #2 in points), led by Philip Rivers. However, the Charger defense has been a bit suspect this season, in losing two games out of the past three weeks, losing 35-27 to Oakland, and 27-20 to Seattle.
Both the Chargers and Rams have sub-par 2-3 records this season. The Rams have already beaten their win total from last season! However, a large majority of bets are taking the visiting Chargers, even with a hefty point spread. At the time of this article, about 67% of the bets (including teasers and parlays) are taking the Chargers, which has pushed the line up from its opening line of San Diego -7 up to -8.5. Some sportsbooks have started to edge the line up to St. Louis +9. This is some decent line value off of the key number of 7. Take the big points on a home underdog (St. Louis Rams) that is showing some life.
St. Louis Rams +9
Jimmy Moore
Oakland @ San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -6.5
I know - how can you lay points with a winless team? Easy in this game. Frisco has really been snakebit by turnovers leading to their winless record. They are doing well in the stat wars and at some point that will pay off. Oakland, on the other hand, has been getting trounced in the yardage battle but they have found ways to get a couple of wins and they are off of a big divisional win against San Diego. A desperate San Fran team will be very ready to get a big win and Oakland offers the perfect opponent to make that happen.
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco (+160) at PHILADELPHIA
For my comp winner, it was a huge victory for the Giants on Saturday night in Philadelphia to take a 1-0 lead in this series, and they showed some of that mental toughness that got them to this point, fighting off rallies in the late innings with closer Brian Wilson. Tonight, I am going to grab the plus-money with lefty Jonathan Sanchez (13-9, 3.00 ERA) as he’ll shut down the big left-handed bats of the Phillies.
Sanchez has a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts and he had a 2.74 ERA on the road this season. In the N.L. West clinching win over the Padres, he threw five shutout innings. In the NLDS win in Atlanta, he allowed one run in 7.1 innings, striking out 11 and walking one in a 3-2 victory. He has held his last eight opponents to two runs or less and he’s dominated the Phillies in two starts this season.
Back on Aug. 19 he went into Philadelphia and allowed one run on two hits over eight innings, striking out seven in a 5-2 victory. The Giants are 4-1 in his five career starts against the Phillies and in the only game they lost he allowed one run in six innings of a 1-0 loss.
Roy Oswalt (13-13, 2.82 ERA) goes for the Phillies and he was bailed out by his offense in the NLDS when he gave up four runs on five hits in five innings but his offense got the 7-4 win. He saw the Giants four times this season and between the Astros and Phillies they were just 1-3 in those four games.
San Francisco has won five of six on the road, six of Sanchez’s last seven starts and nine of his last 11. It’s too much plus-money to pass up with a quality southpaw on the hill today. Play the Giants.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO