Karl Garrett
Kansas City (+4') at HOUSTON
Kansas City coming off their first loss of the season last week on the road at Indianapolis, but the G-Man can see them bouncing back at Reliant Stadium this Sunday afternoon, as Houston hasn't looked all that sharp the last couple of weeks.
The Texans were just trounced at home by the Giants, and are now just 2-6-1 against the spread their last 9 games when installed as the favorite. That includes an 0-2 mark this year.
The Chiefs have covered in 17 of their last 26 as the road dog, and just missed in that role last week against the Colts. It looks to me like Todd Haley has the makings of a team that is on the rise, and I would much prefer to grab the points here with KC rather than lay them with the unreliable Texans this afternoon.
Kansas City shows that they are for real with a strong effort at Houston this Sunday afternoon. Take the underdog Chiefs to be there all the way.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Derek Mancini
Kansas City at HOUSTON (-4')
Public has finally bought into the Chiefs, one game removed from playing the Colts well in a tough loss last week. Well guess what? Oddsmakers aren't stupid, they know the public has acquired a taste for KC, and they're hoping they can entice you to bet them in what clearly is a terrible spot. After what the Giants did to this Texans team last week, you'd think there's no way they should be favored by this much today... Think again.
Texans are well suited for this match up, mainly because the Chiefs cannot take advantage of their greatest weakness - the inability to defend the pass. Unless you've been living under a rock, you know by now that the Texans couldn't stop me and you from racking up the yardage thru the air, but the good news is the Chiefs passing attack is medicore at best. They're averaging just 158 passing yards per game, and Matt Cassell has looked god awful this season, posting a 74 QB rating and completing just 54% of his passes. Even against the Texans, he'll be below average.
Herein lies the problem for the Chiefs, because I'm really expecting the Texans to bounce back strong here. They've always been better at home, and I just don't see them laying an egg two weeks in a row. Schaub has been quiet this season, but he'll get plenty of oppurtunities against this KC pass defense. You see, the Chiefs defense gets a lot of praise, and rightfully so, against the run. But they're nothing special against the pass, which is where Schaub can really punish them. Throw in a little Arian Foster to add bite to the play action pass, and you've got a recipe for success against this KC defense. Lay the points, as Houston bounce back big in a match up that really plays to their strengths, and away from their weaknesses.
4♦ HOUSTON
Stephen Nover
Atlanta (+2') at PHILADELPHIA
The Falcons aren't glitzy. What they are is a tough, solid team without a major weakness.
Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez give the Falcons upper tier talent at four vital skill positions - quarterback, featured runner, wide receiver and tight end. So it's not a surprise the Falcons rank in the top 10 in both total offense and scoring offense.
After losing in overtime on the road to Pittsburgh in Week 1, the Falcons have rebounded to win their next four games, including defeating the Saints on the road. Going back to last year, the Falcons have covered seven of their last nine with one of the non-covers being an overtime loss to the Steelers.
Let's contrast this with Philadelphia. The Eagles have yet to win at home. They are going to start Kevin Kolb at quarterback because Michael Vick has bruised ribs. The Eagles aren't nearly as proficient with Kolb. They needed every bit of a plus four turnover edge to beat San Francisco last week with Kolb behind center.
Atlanta has picked off an NFL-leading 10 passes. They have been getting a strong pass rush from a rejuvenated John Abraham. He should have another big game with left tackle Jason Peters out for the Eagles.
The Falcons have the better quarterback and also should be able to pound Turner between the tackles with defensive lineman Broderick Bunkley unlikely to play.
2♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta (+3) at PHILADELPHIA
For my comp winner, Eagles QB Kevin Kolb looked good against the Niners last week, but now he has to go up against the Falcons and that secondary that leads the NFL with 10 interceptions and that holds opposing QBs to a 72.5 rating. I like this Atlanta team and they have the offense to put up some numbers against the Philly defense today.
The Falcons are very close to being an undefeated team, losing their opening game in Pittsburgh 15-9 in overtime, but winning everything since then. Last week they went to Cleveland and won 20-10 as three-point road favorites and they are 2-1 on the road this year, also beating the Saints in New Orleans 27-24 in OT as three-point pups.
QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 1,165 yards this season and seven TDs. The Falcons seemingly have stars in all the key areas on offense with RB Michael Turner leading a running game that averages 148.8 yards per game, and WR Roddy White who has 37 catches which is good for second in the NFL. And don’t forget about future Hall-of-Fame TE Tony Gonzales who always seems to be open in the middle of the field.
Atlanta comes into this one on several ATS streaks, including 4-0 against winning teams, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog, 7-2 overall, 9-4 in October games and 4-1 against NFC teams. Meanwhile, the Eagles are on some ATS skids, including 2-6 overall, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-5 at home overall, 1-5 against NFC teams and 2-5 against teams with winning records.
The Falcons’ defense is going to make Kolb get rid of the ball before he’s ready and I’m looking for some big turnovers from the Eagles today. Grab the points and play Atlanta today!
4♦ ATLANTA
Chuck O'Brien
Seattle at CHICAGO (-6)
Now for Sunday’s first of two complimentary selections, take the Bears minus the points at home against Seattle. Chicago gets Jay Cutler back under center after the QB missed last week’s game with a mild concussion, and really Cutler’s carelessness is the only way I see the Bears not covering this spread. That’s because the Seahawks A) can’t win on the road; and B) can’t score points on the road. Check this out:
Seattle has lost 18 of its last 21 road games, with two of the wins coming against the Rams (who prior to this year had 6-42 record over three seasons). In those 18 defeats, the Seahawks have produced more than 21 points exactly once and they’ve tallied two touchdowns or fewer on 10 occasions. The Seahawks first two forays away from the Pacific Northwest resulted in a 31-14 loss at Denver and 20-3 loss at St. Louis while averaging 298 yards per contest.
If that’s not troubling enough for Seattle fans, their team has to face a Bears’ defense that’s giving up just 14.8 points and 295.2 yards per game, including a scant 78.6 rushing yards per game. Those figures rank sixth, fifth and third, respectively, in the league, and if you take away a Cowboys’ punt return for a TD in Week 2 (obviously, that’s not on the defense), Chicago has given up 6, 17, 17, 13 and 14 points in its five games. This despite the fact the Bears have faced three Pro Bowl quarterbacks (Romo, Packers, Giants). Now they get to feast on Matt Hasselbeck, who has four TDs vs. six INTs, leading to a 70.7 QB rating that’s fifth-worst in the league, below Alex Smith, Shaun Hill and Jason Campbell.
Seattle has covered just once in its last 11 road games (averaging 12.8 ppg in those 10 non-covers), and the Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six as a sizeable road pup of 3½ to 10 points.
5♦ CHICAGO
Stephen Nover
Cleveland at PITTSBURGH (-14)
If ever there were a case to lay two touchdowns in an NFL game this is it. The Steelers, playing at home with revenge and Ben Roethlisberger back for his first game of the season, are fired-up to destroy the overmatched Browns, who are down to their third-string quarterback, rookie Colt McCoy. These were McCoy's numbers in preseason: four turnovers, six sacks taken, 5.9 yards per pass attempt and zero touchdown throws. And that was against fourth-string defenses.
Pittsburgh's defense is back to being dominant again, allowing a league-low 10.5 points per game. The Browns' offense consists of running hulking Peyton Hillis off tackle. The Steelers, though, rank No. 1 in run defense and Hillis isn't 100 percent because of a bruised thigh. He averaged only 2.8 yards per carry last week against Atlanta, failing to rush for more than 28 yards.
The Browns have been able to hang in because of gritty efforts. They are not a physical match for Pittsburgh, however, and certainly don't have the talent to keep pace. The Browns could have the slowest offenses and defenses in the league.
The Steelers are back to being balanced with Roethlisberger at the helm. He'll look to have a big game. Don't expect Roethlisberger to be rusty either. He's looked very sharp in practice and benefited from the Steelers having a bye last week.
The Steelers had beaten Cleveland 12 straight times before losing on the road last year to the Browns. That was an embarrassing defeat that they are are anxious to atone.
This is a Pittsburgh kill spot and McCoy is the sacrificial lamb.
4♦ PITTSBURGH
Karl Garrett
N.Y. Jets (-3) at DENVER
Tons of folks feel this is a prime let down spot for the Jets, as New York visits Denver off of Monday night's contest against the Vikings which was preceded by 3 division clashes. The problem I have with the "letdown factor" is the Jets have a bye week next week so you can assume they will leave it all on the field this afternoon.
Denver has numerious secondary injuries they are trying to play through, and they are not exactly a balanced offense, as their running game is a virtual non-factor these days.
New York has covered 9 of their last 13 on the road dating back to last season, while Denver has become a money-burner at home dropping 5 of their last 7 against the spread at Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium.
G-Man believes the Jets are one of the top 3 teams in the league right now, and with nothing but a bye week staring them in the face, I look for the Jets to make it 5 straight wins and covers at Denver today.
Lay it.
2♦ N.Y. JETS
Chuck O'Brien
Oakland (+7) at SAN FRANCISCO
Now for Sunday’s second of two complimentary selections, take the Raiders plus the points at San Francisco.
I don’t have many rules when it comes to handicapping, but here’s one of them: When a team that’s winless through five weeks of the NFL season, when that team appears to have quit on its coach and when that team is laying nearly a full touchdown, I must go the other way. Seriously, how do you not take the points with Oakland just as a pure value play?
The Raiders are 2-3 (and very easily could be 4-1); they’re coming off an impressive come-from-behind win over the Chargers (a team that’s vastly more talented than San Francisco); and they’ve only lost by more than seven points once this year (in Week 1 at Tennessee). Also, Oakland’s once-putrid offense has improved in the scoring department every week, going from 13 to 16 to 23 to 24 to 35 points.
By comparison, the 49ers are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS, but both spread-covers came in the underdog role. They rank next-to-last in the league in scoring (15.2 ppg, only Carolina is worse), while the defense is giving up 26 ppg (which ranks 27th out of 32 teams). Again, how can a team that’s 0-5, been outscored by an average of 11 points per game and is minus-10 in turnover ratio … be laying 6½ points?
Finally, when you just view these two squads objectively, you see an Oakland team that’s playing with a lot of passion and intensity (clearly the players are responding to coach Tom Cable) and you see a San Francisco team that has no energy or sense of urgency (clearly the players have tuned out coach Mike Singletary, who proves week after week that he’s in WAY over his head).
3♦ OAKLAND
Joel Tyson
Dallas at MINNESOTA (-1')
When the schedule for this season came out, I feel pretty sure that no one in their right mind would have predicted that both the Cowboys and the Vikings would enter this game with identical 1-3 records, but low-and-behold that is indeed the case this afternoon in the Twin Cities.
My money is on the Vikings to notch the much-needed win, as their home field advantage just cannot be underestimated.
Minnesota has won 10 of their 11 home games since # 4 joined the team, and they have covered in 8 of those 11 games as well. Included is last January's 34-3 trash-job the Vikes laid down on the 'Pokes, as the quick Minnesota defense sacked Tony Romo 6 times and picked him off once in that romp.
With Dallas not being able to establish the run, expect Minny to pressure Romo once again in this game.
Look for the Favre-Moss combo to feel more comfortable in the cozy dome confines, and for the Vikings to drop the Cowboys to 1-4 on the year.
4♦ MINNESOTA