SPORTS ADVISORS
Kansas City (0-5, 1-4 ATS) at Washington (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Chiefs, still seeking their first victory under new coach Todd Haley, travel to FedEx Field for a non-conference contest against the Redskins.
Kansas City blew a 13-3 halftime lead against Dallas on Sunday, ultimately falling 26-20 in overtime for its ninth straight loss (3-6 ATS), but the Chiefs covered as a seven-point underdog. K.C. has scored more than 20 points just one time this year – in the season-opening 38-24 loss at Baltimore – while giving up 26 points or more four times.
Washington blew an even bigger lead Sunday, letting a 17-2 advantage slip away in a 20-17 loss at Carolina, though the Redskins cashed as a five-point ‘dog to snap a three-game ATS skid. Washington has been held to 17 points or less in all five games this year and in 13 of its last 16 dating to last season.
In two regular-season meetings this decade, Kansas City is 2-0 SU and ATS against Washington, most recently earning a 28-21 home victory as a 6½-point favorite in 2005.
The Chiefs are 2-19 SU (9-12 ATS) dating to the 2008 season opener, and they are on ATS skids of 1-6 overall, 1-5 getting points, 3-8 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points and 1-7 against the NFC. Likewise, the Redskins are on ATS purges of 3-8-2 overall, 1-7 at FedEx, 0-5 as a home favorite and 6-16-4 against losing teams. Washington is also on a 1-8-1 ATS slump hosting AFC teams.
The over for Kansas City is 21-8-1 in its last 30 October tilts, but the under is on runs of 7-1 against losing teams and 19-9-1 with the Chiefs as a road ‘dog. The under for Washington has hit in four straight games and is on further tears of 20-7-1 overall, 16-5-2 at home, 15-5-1 with the Redskins favored and 6-0 with the Redskins favored at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Houston (2-3 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (4-1, 3-2 ATS)
The Bengals look to keep their surprising start going when they take on the Texans at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati knocked off Baltimore 17-14 Sunday as an overwhelming nine-point underdog, posting its fourth consecutive SU win (3-1 ATS). The Bengals are getting it done despite ranking in the bottom half of the league in total offense (335.4 ypg, 18th) and total defense (327.6 ypg, 17th), mainly because their “D” is yielding an average of just 18 ppg (tied for ninth).
Houston gave up an INT for a touchdown late, then came up just short on a last-minute drive in a 28-21 loss at Arizona as a 5½-point pup Sunday, continuing its season-long trend of alternating SU and ATS wins and losses. The Texans have scored 21 points or more in each of their last four games, but they’ve also allowed 24 or more in four of five outings this season, giving up 363 ypg (23rd).
Cincinnati is 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in four meetings since Houston regained a franchise early this decade. However, the one loss came last year, when the Texans rolled 35-6 as a nine-point home chalk in October.
The Bengals are on a 1-5 ATS dive as a favorite and shoulder additional ATS slides of 5-16-2 in October, 5-11 against the AFC and 5-11 after a spread-cover. However, they have covered in six of their last eight overall and are on a trio of 5-2 ATS upticks: at home; following a SU win; and against non-division opponents.
The Texans are on ATS runs of 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover and 5-1 as a pup, but they’ve cashed in just two of their last 11 October contests and are on a 4-9 ATS skid as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points. They’re also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-division roadies.
Cincinnati is on “under” rolls of 9-3-1 at home, 5-0 as a home favorite, 6-2 after a SU win and 7-3 after a pointspread win. The under for Houston is on streaks of 8-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 6-2 against the AFC, but otherwise the Texans are on “over” stretches of 8-3 with as a road pup, 17-5-1 after a SU loss, 17-5-1 after a non-cover and 20-6 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
Cleveland (1-4, 2-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh (3-2, 2-3 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, finally back above .500 with consecutive wins after a couple of bumpy weeks, meet the division rival Browns at Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh topped Detroit 28-20 Sunday, but fell short of covering as a hefty 11-point chalk. The Steelers are allowing an average of 290.8 ypg, tied for fourth-best in the NFL, while their offense is churning out 375.8 ypg (seventh). QB Ben Roethlisberger’s passing attack is putting up 275.4 ypg, which trails only the Colts, Chargers and Cardinals.
Cleveland finally nabbed its first win under new coach Eric Mangini, but it was hardly pretty as the Browns edged Buffalo 6-3 Sunday getting 5½ points on the road. QB Derek Anderson completed just 2 of 17 passes, and he leads the league’s second-worst total yardage offense (248.4 ypg) and second-worst passing attack (142.6 ypg), ahead of only the Raiders in both categories.
Pittsburgh has won the last 10 meetings in this rivalry (7-2-1 ATS, all as a favorite), thought the squads split the cash in last year’s two clashes, including the Steelers’ 31-0 rout laying 11 points at home in December. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are an ATS slides of 1-5 overall going back to the Super Bowl and 3-10 laying more than 10 points, but they also carry positive ATS streaks of 6-1 at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 in the AFC North, 7-3 in conference play and a lengthy 34-16-2 in October. The Browns, meanwhile, have lost 10 of their last 11 games (2-8-1 ATS), and though they’ve cashed in seven straight October starts, they are on pointspread purges of 1-5 on the road (all as a pup), 1-4 in the division, 1-5-1 against winning teams and 0-5 as a double-digit ‘dog.
The over for Pittsburgh is on a bundle of runs, including 6-2 overall, 4-1 against the AFC, 5-2 in division play and 40-17-2 at Heinz Field. Plus, in this rivalry, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings overall and 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes in Pittsburgh. Conversely, the under for the Browns is on rolls of 5-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the highway, 5-1 against AFC foes and 6-2 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Baltimore (3-2 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (5-0, 4-1 ATS)
The Vikings put their unbeaten mark on the line at the Metrodome against the Ravens, who are coming off back-to-back losses after a 3-0 start.
Minnesota hammered St. Louis 38-10 Sunday, easily covering as a healthy 10-point road favorite. The Vikings, rolling behind QB Brett Favre and RB Adrian Peterson, are scoring an average of 31.2 ppg – third in the league behind only the Saints and the Eagles – despite totaling 332.6 ypg, which rates 19th. And Minnesota’s defense has helped the squad post a league-leading plus-8 turnover margin.
Baltimore got upended at home by Cincinnati 17-14 as a heavy nine-point favorite Sunday, giving up the winning touchdown with just seconds to play in losing consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 4-6 of last year. The Ravens have typically ridden their defense to success, but this year, second-year QB Joe Flacco has the offense averaging 27.6 ppg (fifth) and 382.2 ypg (fifth), with Baltimore in the top 10 in both rushing (133.6 ypg, sixth) and passing (248.6 ypg, 10th).
These teams have met just twice this decade in regular-season play, with Baltimore going 2-0 SU and ATS, both times at home. In the most recent contest, the Ravens won 30-23 on Christmas Day 2005 as a 3½-point chalk. The favorite and the home team are both 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
The Vikings carry a few ominous ATS streaks, including 1-4 at home, 1-4 against winning teams, 3-7 after a spread-cover and 5-11 coming off a SU win, but their 4-1 ATS mark this year has all come from the favorite’s role. The Ravens are on a 6-13 ATS dive following a SU loss and have covered in just two of their last seven October starts, but they are otherwise on ATS rolls of 14-5 overall, 8-3 in roadies, 5-1 as a road pup of three or less and 9-4 outside the AFC North.
The over for Minnesota is on streaks of 4-1 this season (all as a chalk), 5-2 with the Vikes a home favorite and 5-1 in October. Likewise, the Ravens are on “over” runs of 16-5-1 as a ‘dog, 8-2-1 on the road and 12-3-1 as a road pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (0-5, 1-4 ATS) at Jacksonville (2-3, 3-2 ATS)
The Jaguars return home from a disastrous West Coast trip looking to get back on track against the winless Rams and new coach Steve Spagnuolo.
Jacksonville took a 41-0 beating at Seattle on Sunday as a one-point underdog, halting a two-game SU and ATS run. It’s been feast or famine for the Jaguars, who have averaged 34 points in their two wins but just 9.7 points in their three losses. The defense is also giving up 380.6 ypg, the third-worst total in the league, ahead of only the Raiders and Chiefs.
St. Louis was shelled by Minnesota 38-10 as a 10-point home pup Sunday, falling to 0-15 SU (5-10 ATS) in its last 15 games. The Rams have scored 10 points or less in four of their five outings this season, getting shutout twice and averaging a league-worst 6.8 ppg while allowing 29.2 ppg (31st). Starting QB Marc Bulger, who has missed the last 2½ games with an injury, is probable to return this week.
In one meeting this decade between these two teams, St. Louis won 24-21 getting 5½ points at home in October 2005.
The Jaguars are on spread-covering skids of 2-8 at home, 1-9 laying points, 0-6 as a home chalk, 3-7 against losing teams and 3-9 outside the AFC South, but they are a stout 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home starts against the NFC. The Rams shoulder negative ATS streaks of 2-5 on the road, 8-20 catching 3½ to 10 points, 23-50-1 after a non-cover and 23-49-1 after a SU loss. St. Louis is also on an 8-17 pointspread freefall coming off a SU and ATS loss.
The over has hit in four of Jacksonville’s last five at home and is 8-2-1 in the Jags’ last 11 as a home favorite, while the under for St. Louis is on tears of 7-3-1 overall, 4-1 on the road (3-0 this year, all as a pup) and 14-6 with the Rams catching 3½ to 10 points on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
N.Y. Giants (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at New Orleans (4-0 SU and ATS)
The clash of the week takes place in the Big Easy when native son Eli Manning leads the Giants against Drew Brees and the Saints in a battle of unbeatens at the Superdome.
New York blitzed Oakland 44-7 last week and easily cashed as an eye-popping 15½-point home chalk, despite Manning playing only in the first half due to a minor foot injury. In that time, he still completed 8 of 10 passes for 173 yards and two TDs, and he’s now leading the league’s second-most productive offense at a whopping 417.4 ypg, just three yards behind Dallas. New York is also scoring 30.2 ppg (fourth). The Giants supplement that offense with a defense that’s allowing a league-low 210.6 ypg.
New Orleans had its bye week following a 24-10 home victory over the Jets as a 7½-point favorite two Sundays ago. The Saints can certainly match New York’s offensive firepower, as they average an NFL-best 36 ppg and are just one spot behind the Giants in total yards at 414.2 per game. New Orleans is also allowing just 16.5 ppg (seventh).
These two teams have split four meetings SU and ATS in the past eight years, but they haven’t played since 2006, when New Orleans rolled 30-7 as a three-point road pup on Christmas Eve. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes, and the favorite is also 5-1 ATS in that stretch.
The Giants are on a bevy of pointspread hot streaks, including 37-18-2 overall, 15-4 on the road (3-0 this year), 17-4 against winning teams, 16-5-1 getting points, 18-7-1 in October and 39-17-2 against NFC foes. The Saints have lost their last four games following a bye week, but they are otherwise on ATS tears of 9-1-1 overall, 6-1 at the dome, 16-5 laying points, 5-0 as a home chalk and 6-1-1 against the NFC.
The under is 4-1-1 in New York’s last five road games and 8-3 in the Giants’ last 11 as a road pup, and the total has gone low in five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry. On the flip side, the over for New Orleans is on stretches of 17-7-1 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 10-2-1 with the Saints a home favorite, 22-6-1 against the NFC and 45-21-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Carolina (1-3, 0-4 ATS) at Tampa Bay (0-5, 1-4 ATS)
The reeling Buccaneers try again for their first win under new coach Raheem Morris when they return home to Raymond James Stadium to face the Panthers, who finally cracked the win column last week.
Tampa Bay fell to Philadelphia 33-14 as a huge 15½-point road pup Sunday in losing its ninth consecutive game (2-7 ATS). The Buccaneers have been held to 14 points or less in their last three games, and they’ve given up 24 points or more four times this season, including 33 or more in three of their five starts.
Carolina rallied from an unusual 17-2 deficit to post a 20-17 victory Sunday over Washington, but fell short of covering as a five-point home favorite for its fifth straight ATS setback (1-4 SU), dating to last season. The Panthers are averaging just 14.2 ppg (28th) and 282 ypg (27th) while allowing 26 ppg (tied for 26th) and 321.2 ypg (15th).
These NFC South rivals split their two meetings in 2008, with the home team winning and covering each time. Tampa rolled 27-3 laying one point in October, and Carolina won 38-23 giving three points in December. The Panthers are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 clashes, and the favorite is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Panthers have cashed in five straight as a road chalk and are on ATS runs of 9-4-1 overall as a favorite and 7-2 as a division road favorite, but their current five-game ATS skid has all come against NFC foes. The Buccaneers are on pointspread declines of 1-6 overall, 0-5 at Raymond James, 1-5 as a home pup, 2-7 against losing teams and 2-5 against the NFC.
Tampa Bay is on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 11-2 against losing teams and 8-3 as a home pup, but the under has hit in four of its last five division tilts. The over for Carolina is on upswings of 9-3 against the NFC, 4-0 in the division and 5-1 on the road, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last six meetings in Tampa.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Detroit (1-4, 2-3 ATS) at Green Bay (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Packers return from their bye week looking to get back above .500 when they take on the Lions at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay came up short in its grudge match with Brett Favre and Minnesota in a Monday night duel two weeks ago, losing 30-23 as a 4½-point road ‘dog. The Packers, with QB Aaron Rodgers growing more into the starter’s role, are averaging 26 ppg (eighth), but they’ve got a middle-of-the-pack defense, yielding 335.2 ypg (18th) and 23.2 ppg (21st).
Detroit, with Daunte Culpepper subbing for rookie Matthew Stafford at QB, gave Pittsburgh a bit of a test, falling 28-20 Sunday at home but covering as a heavy 11-point pup. The Lions have lost two in a row since snapping their 19-game losing streak, giving them a 1-21 SU and 9-13 ATS mark in their last 22 games. Detroit is also fielding the league’s worst scoring defense this year, yielding 32.4 ppg.
Stafford (right knee), the No. 1 overall draft pick in April, is highly doubtful this week, as is No. 1 wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who left last week’s game early with a leg injury..
Green Bay has won seven in a row (5-2 ATS) in this NFC North rivalry, though Detroit got an ATS split last year, covering in a 31-21 road loss as an 11-point pup to cap its record-setting 0-16 SU campaign. Still, the Packers are 8-3-1 ATS in the last dozen Lambeau meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests, though the road team has cashed in five of the last seven.
The Packers are on ATS upswings of 4-0 after a bye, 7-2 inside the division, 5-1 in division home tilts and 11-5-2 after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread purges of 3-7 overall, 1-4 at home and 4-16-2 as a double-digit favorite. The Lions are a putrid 2-27 SU (10-19 ATS) dating to the middle of the 2007 season, and they are on ATS skids of 1-6 after a spread-cover and 7-15 against the NFC. However, they are on ATS rolls of 6-2 on the road, 16-5 as a double-digit pup and 9-1 as a double-digit road ‘dog.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 21-7-1 overall, 11-4 at home, 15-4 as a favorite, 8-3 in the NFC North and 21-6-1 in conference play. Similarly, the over for Detroit is on streaks of 19-7-1 overall, 21-6 on the highway and 11-4-1 as an underdog. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in the last four meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (3-1 SU and ATS) at Oakland (1-4, 2-3 ATS)
The Eagles step out of the NFC when they make a cross-country trek to face the Raiders at the Coliseum.
Philadelphia returned from its bye week with a healthy Donovan McNabb and easily dispatched Tampa Bay 33-14 Sunday as an overwhelming 15½-point home favorite. In their three wins, the Eagles have scored no less than 33 points, and they are currently second in the league in scoring at 31.8 ppg. Defensively, Philly is allowing 272.2 ypg, third in the NFL behind only the Giants and Broncos.
Oakland’s dismal offensive performance continued in a 44-7 beatdown at the Giants as a 15½-point underdog. The Raiders are putting up a meager 191.6 ypg, which is last in the NFL, and 9.8 ppg, joining the Rams as one of two teams averaging single-digit scoring. QB JaMarcus Russell is 51-for-121 passing for a league-worst completion percentage of 42.1, and he’s already been sacked 15 times, fourth-most in the league.
These teams last met in September 2005, with Philadelphia earning a 23-20 home win, but Oakland easily covering as a nine-point pup, and the Raiders have cashed in both meetings this decade (1-1 SU).
The Eagles are on positive pointspread streaks of 9-3 overall, 13-5 on the road, 5-1 as a chalk, 5-1 against losing teams and 4-1 when laying more than 10 points. Conversely, the Raiders are on ATS freefalls of 5-16 at home, 8-20 as a home pup, 8-20 in October, 20-43-1 after a non-cover and 1-4 when catching more than 10 points.
The over has been the play in five straight games for Philadelphia, but the under is on runs of 41-20-5 with the Eagles favored, 19-9-1 with Andy Reid’s troops as a road chalk and 21-8 on the road against teams with a losing home record. Oakland is on “under” tears of 9-4-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 9-2 in October, 9-3-1 after a SU loss and 39-16-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Arizona (2-2 SU and ATS) at Seattle (2-3 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals aim to get back in the thick of things in the NFC West when they head to Qwest Field for a meeting with the Seahawks.
Arizona followed its bye week with a 28-21 victory Sunday over Houston, narrowly covering the 5½-point spread by getting a Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie INT return for a TD, followed by a goal-line stand in the final seconds. The Cards are a middling 16th offensively this year at 336.2 ypg, while their defense is 27th in allowing 374 ypg. Arizona also has the league’s second-worst rushing attack, at a meager 56.5 ypg.
Seattle, with QB Matt Hasselbeck back under center, belted Jacksonville 41-0 Sunday laying one point at home to snap a three-game SU and ATS slide. In the two games Hasselbeck has played start to finish, the Seahawks have outscored their opponents 69-0, as they opened the year with a 28-0 home rout of St. Louis.
Arizona won and covered in both meetings in this rivalry last year and is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five matchups. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, with Seattle taking the lone loss in a 26-20 setback last November as a three-point pup. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five starts as a pup of three or less, but they are otherwise on pointspread rolls of 7-2 overall, 5-0 in October, 4-0 as a ‘dog, 6-2 against the NFC West and 7-2-1 in road division games. The Seahawks are on ATS purges of 2-8 after a SU win, 4-9 after a spread-cover and 2-6-1 against the NFC, but they are on spread-covering upswings of 4-1-1 at home, 9-2 as a home favorite, 9-4 inside the division and 9-4 in NFC West home affairs.
The under is 3-1 this year for Arizona, but the over remains on a bundle of tears for the Cards, including 36-17 overall, 10-1 with Arizona getting three points or less, 39-16 on the road and 40-13 as a road pup. Seattle is on “under” runs of 9-4-1 overall, 6-2-1 at home and 6-2-1 in division play.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in eight of the last 10 meetings, including four of the last five.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Buffalo (1-4, 2-3 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (3-2 SU and ATS)
The Jets, hoping to rebound from two consecutive road losses, return home to the Meadowlands to square off with the struggling Bills.
New York lost a Monday night shootout in Miami 31-27 as a three-point road ‘dog, following its 24-10 loss at New Orleans. The Jets, with QB Mark Sanchez looking strong at times and much like a rookie at others, are averaging 299.6 total ypg (24th), relying more on the league’s seventh-best running game (132 ypg), ninth-best total defense (304.8 ypg) and eighth-best scoring defense (17.6 ppg).
Buffalo had a putrid effort in a 6-3 home loss to Cleveland on Sunday as a six-point home favorite, suffering its third consecutive SU and ATS setback. The Bills gave up 171 rushing yards and lost despite Browns QB Derek Anderson completing just 2 of 17 passes for 23 yards, with one INT. Buffalo has totaled just 20 points in its last three games, after scoring 24 and 33 points, respectively, in its first two games of the year.
New York won both meetings in this AFC East rivalry last year, splitting the cash after winning 31-27 at home in November but failing to cover as a nine-point chalk. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes overall and 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to the Meadowlands, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the underdog is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
The Jets are stuck in pointspread ruts of 3-7 overall, 0-5 after an ATS loss, 0-5 after a SU loss, 1-6 giving points and 5-15-1 in October. However, when playing Sunday following a Monday night game, they are on a 10-2-1 ATS tear, and despite coming up short last week at Miami, they’re still 6-3 ATS in their last nine division contests. The Bills have covered in four of their last five roadies, but they are on ATS slides of 5-10 overall, 2-9 against winning teams and 2-6 in AFC East contests.
The under is 5-2 in the Jets’ last seven overall, but the over for New York is on upticks of 5-2 at home, 5-1 with the Jets favored at the Meadowlands, 5-2 after a SU loss and 7-3-1 against AFC foes. The over for Buffalo is on stretches of 5-0 on the road and 4-0 as a road pup, and in this rivalry, the over is 6-2-1 in the last nine clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Tennessee (0-5, 1-4 ATS) at New England (3-2, 2-3 ATS)
The Titans, who went 13-3 SU last year but are still seeking their first win of the 2009 campaign, hit the road to face the Patriots at Gillette Stadium.
Tennessee suffered a 31-9 home loss to Indianapolis last Sunday night as a 3½ -point pup for its fourth straight ATS setback. Last year, QB Kerry Collins had 12 TD passes and just seven INTs, along with one lost fumble. However, through just five games this year, he has already matched those turnover numbers and has just five TD passes, and the Titans have scored 17 points or less four times, averaging 16.8 ppg while allowing 27.8 ppg.
New England is coming off a 20-17 overtime loss at Denver as a 3½-point road favorite, halting a 2-0 SU and ATS streak. The Patriots are generating 361.8 total ypg (ninth), including 260.8 passing ypg (sixth), but they’ve only converted those yards into 20.8 ppg (19th). Fortunately, their defense is allowing slightly less than that, at 18.2 ppg (11th).
New England has won the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 40-23 victory as a 3½-point road pup in December 2006, the most recent contest.
The Titans, who went an NFL-best 12-4 ATS last season, are on ATS slides of 1-4 on the road, 0-4 against the AFC, 0-4 against winning teams and 0-5 after a SU loss, but they still have positive ATS streaks of 15-6 as an underdog and 11-5 as a road pup. The Patriots are on spread-covering slides of 5-11 at home (all as a chalk) and 3-7 against losing teams, but they are on pointspread rolls of 20-7-1 in October and 19-6-1 after a SU loss.
The under for Tennessee is on runs of 9-4 on the road, 5-2-1 as a ‘dog and 11-4-1 against winning teams. Conversely, the over has hit in five of New England’s last six home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Chicago (3-1 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (3-1 SU and ATS)
The Falcons, looking every bit like the playoff team they were last year, play host to the improving Bears in prime time at the Georgia Dome.
Coming off its bye week, Atlanta trekked to the West Coast and flattened what had been a rising San Francisco squad, posting a 45-10 rout as a one-point pup, bouncing back nicely from its SU and ATS loss at New England. The Falcons are near the middle of the league offensively at 346 total ypg (13th), but they’re ninth in scoring (25.5 ppg), and their defense is allowing just 15.8 ppg (fourth).
Chicago had last weekend off following a 48-24 trouncing of Detroit as a hefty 9½-point home chalk two Sundays ago. The Bears have won three in a row since dropping their season opener at Green Bay, and behind new QB Jay Cutler, they’re putting up 26.2 ppg (seventh) despite netting just 305.2 total ypg (22nd), while the defense is allowing 19.5 ppg (13th).
Chicago is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven contests with Atlanta, though the Falcons got the win and the cash last October in a 22-20 home win as a three-point pup. In that contest, the Bears scored the go-ahead touchdown with 19 seconds to play, but a long kickoff return followed by a deep Matt Ryan-to-Michael Jenkins sideline pass put the Falcons in position to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired. The ‘dog has cashed in four of the last five meetings.
The Falcons are on spread-covering streaks of 8-3 at home, 4-1 in October, 7-3 as a favorite and 5-2 as a chalk of three or less. The Bears, meanwhile, are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 October starts, but the pointspread trends fall off from there, including 1-5 as a pup, 2-7-1 after a SU win and 2-5 on the highway.
Atlanta is on “over” tears of 10-4 at the Georgia Dome and 4-0 inside the NFC, and the over is 30-13-1 in Chicago’s last 44 conference contests. However, the under for Chicago is on streaks of 8-3 on the road, 24-9-1 with the Bears getting three points or less and 35-17-2 with the Bears as a road ‘dog. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has fallen short of the posted price five straight times overall and four consecutive times in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
NLCS
Philadelphia (4-2) at L.A. Dodgers (4-1)
After tying their best-of-7 National League Championship Series with another come-from-behind victory Friday, the Dodgers now attempt to regain home-field advantage when they send Hiroki Kuroda (8-7, 3.76) to the mound for Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park. Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22) is slated to get the starting nod for the Phillies.
Los Angeles erased a 1-0 deficit with two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning on Friday, scoring on a throwing error by Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and a two-out, bases-loaded walk by Andre Ethier to earn a split of the first two games at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last seven games and are on additional positive surges of 5-0 as an underdog, 5-1 in the third game of a series and 5-2 as a playoff pup, but they’re 1-4 in their last five on the highway and 1-4 in their last five against left-handed starters.
Despite the Game 2 defeat, the Phillies are still 7-2 in their last nine playoff contests dating to last year’s run to the World Series title, and they’re on additional surges of 5-2 overall, 33-15 at home, 8-1 in home playoff games, 8-1 as a playoff favorite, 11-3 against the N.L. West, 16-7 following a loss, 35-16 after an off day and 39-13 on Sunday.
The Phillies ousted Los Angeles in five games in last year’s NLCS and are now 5-2 versus the Dodgers in the past two postseasons. Going back to last August, Philadelphia has won 12 of 18 against L.A. (7-2 at Citizens Bank Park). In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.
Kuroda was left off the Dodgers’ postseason roster in the National League Division Series against St. Louis as he recovered from a neck injury. The Japanese native’s second season in the big leagues was marred by various ailments, and he hasn’t pitched since going four innings in an 11-1 loss at Pittsburgh on Sept. 28. Still, Kurdoa was solid after the All-Star break, going 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 11 starts, compared with 3-5 with a 4.67 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) in the first half of the season.
Kuroda allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his final 12 outings, with the Dodgers going 9-3 overall and 5-2 on the road. L.A. is also 4-1 both in Kuroda’s last five starts as an underdog and his last five against the N.L. East, but it has dropped seven of his last nine starts on Sunday.
For the season, Kuroda was 6-3 with a 3.55 ERA on the road, as opposed to 2-4 with a 4.03 at Dodger Stadium. He faced the Phillies on June 6 at home and scattered two hits and three walks in six scoreless innings, getting a no-decision as L.A. rallied for a 3-2, 12-inning victory. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four career starts against the Phillies, including a 7-2 home victory over Philly in Game 3 of last year’s NLCS, as he yielded two runs in six innings. Kuroda also beat the Cubs 3-1 in the playoffs last year, pitching 6 1/3 scoreless innings, making him 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two career playoff starts.
Lee was tremendous in two starts against the Rockies in the NLDS – his first-ever playoff appearances – giving up four runs (two earned) on 11 hits in 16 1/3 innings (1.10 ERA). He got a complete-game 5-1 victory at home in Game 1, then failed to get a decision in the decisive Game 4 in Colorado on Monday, as Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 ninth-inning deficit to prevail 5-4.
Including those two stellar outings versus the Rockies, Lee is 8-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 14 starts since joining the Phillies in late July, with his team going 10-4 overall. In six starts at Citizens Bank Park, Lee is 4-2 with a 2.22 ERA. Additionally, with the southpaw hurling, Philadelphia went 9-2 as a favorite and 5-0 against N.L. West competition.
As a team, the Phillies carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 13-4-2 overall, 10-3-2 against right-handed starters, 5-0 in the third game of a series and 10-2-2 as a favorite. Conversely, the under is 12-5-2 in Philadelphia’s last 19 home games and 5-2-2 in its last nine playoff home contests.
For the Dodgers, the over is on runs of 4-1-1 against the N.L. East, 9-4-1 versus winning teams, 4-0 on Sunday, 5-1-1 after an off day and 7-3-2 against lefty starters. However, with Kuroda working, L.A. is on “under” stretches of 6-1 on Sunday, 6-1 as an underdog, 10-2 as a road underdog and 7-1 versus winning teams.
Finally, the under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 Dodgers-Phillies battles at Citizens Bank Park (1-1 in the playoffs).
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
DUNKEL
Philadelphia at Oakland
The Eagles look to build on their 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 road games. Philadelphia is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-14). Here are all of this week's picks.
Game 209-210: Kansas City at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 124.309; Washington 128.684
Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Washington by 6 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Over
Game 211-212: Houston at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.867; Cincinnati 132.694
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2); Under
Game 213-214: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 122.969; Pittsburgh 138.320
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14; 38
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-14); Over
Game 215-216: Baltimore at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.761; Minnesota 139.781
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over
Game 217-218: St. Louis at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.535; Jacksonville 132.741
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 15; 40
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 9 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-9 1/2); Under
Game 219-220: NY Giants at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 141.721; New Orleans 146.556
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5; 42
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Under
Game 221-222: Carolina at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.448; Tampa Bay 125.390
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Over
Game 223-224: Detroit at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 122.841; Green Bay 132.623
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 51
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+13 1/2); Over
Game 225-226: Philadelphia at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 138.357; Oakland 119.157
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 19; 46
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 14; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-14); Over
Game 227-228: Arizona at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 134.143; Seattle 128.932
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 5; 43
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Under
Game 229-230: Buffalo at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 123.153; NY Jets 139.544
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 16 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 9 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-9 1/2); Over
Game 231-232: Tennessee at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 126.805; New England 141.963
Dunkel Line: New England by 15; 37
Vegas Line: New England by 9; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-9); Under
Game 233-234: Chicago at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.018; Atlanta 139.717
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3); Over
MONDAY, OCTOBER 19
Game 235-236: Denver at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 132.411; San Diego 137.453
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3 1/2); Over
MLB
Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.862; Philadelphia (Lee) 16.884
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-175); Over
Randle The Handle
St. Louis +10 over JACKSONVILLE
Move over Detroit Lions, here come the St. Louis Rams. That’s right, the Rams have dropped 15 in a row since beating Dallas last October. So, what is there to like about them this week? Well, for one, their stock has tumbled to an all-time low, meaning we’re probably getting more points than we should be. Secondly, this guest is on the verge of breaking out and this could certainly be the week. I never bet a team that I don’t think can win outright and it would not surprise me one but to see that come to pass. The Rams lost 38-10 to the Vikes last week but in no way was that score indicative of what transpired on the field. The Rams had more total yards than the Vikes and they also held the in edge in time of possession. The offense was crisp and the defense is a whole lot better than they’re getting credit for. This team is slowly but surely getting better and if they eliminate turnovers this week they have a great chance to not only cover but win outright. The Rams blowout losses, unlike the Raiders and Bucs, are not as bad as they seem and even the previous week against San Fran, they were down just 7-0 at halftime before a couple of costly turnovers in the second half made the score look worse than it was. Marc Bulger looks healthy and was very sharp in relief of Kyle Boller last week. Bulger rarely throws a pick and that’s good news for our cause. The Jags were crushed last week in Seattle and fan interest is diminishing quicker than Clay Aiken’s fan base. Playing at home in front of a ton of empty seats is not inspiring and takes away from home-field advantage. The Jags could never be trusted as a favorite and as double-digit chalk they are to be less trusted. Yeah, the Rams record on paper is horrible but this team is not as bad as those other Tomato Cans and this is the week they have a great shot. Play: St. Louis +10 (Risking 2.4 units to win 2).
NEW ORLEANS –3½ +1.02 over NY Giants
The Giants are a perfect 5-0 but let’s have a closer look at that because that 5-0 record is a little misleading, in that we really don’t know how good or even how flawed the Giants really are. We’ll find out this week and you might be surprised when and if they get smoked. You see, the Giants opened the year with a win over the pathetic Redskins. We’ll skip week 2 and come back to it but in weeks 3, 4 and 5 they beat the Chiefs, Bucs and Raiders. To put it mildly, those four wins came against arguably the worst quartet in football, bar none. Not one of those four teams can move five yards. In week 2, the Giants played Dallas and won 33-31 but that was a rather fluky win, as they Boys turned the ball over four times and lost by just two points. In fact, Dallas completely dominated the Giants and they moved the ball at will. Now the Giants defense will really be tested against the sharpest and most dangerous offense in the game. It’s also the Giants fourth road game in the past five weeks and frankly, they really haven’t been battle tested yet. In fact, the Giants do not have a notable win this season. Under these circumstances (fourth road game in five weeks and not battle tested) in this is not the right time for them to meet the Saints. Just one game short of a title game berth last year, the returning Saints have beaten down their initial four foes of 2009 through shock and awe, evidenced by league-best team numbers in yards per game and individual league leads taken by quarterback Drew Brees (touchdowns, passer rating) and wide receiver Marques Colston (touchdown catches). They hung a 48 on Philly, they crushed a very good Jets team and they won by 20 on the road in Buffalo, not an easy place to score points. Unlike the Giants, the Saints are battle tested and passed with flying colors. Now they’ve had two weeks to prepare, the place will be maddening and it says here they win again and they win big. Play: New Orleans –3½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +5 +1.06 over CINCINNATI
This line just keeps moving up and it’s now time to pull the trigger against the Bengals and here’s why. The Bengals stock has soared through the roof the past few weeks with wins over Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay with two of those being on the road a s a 9-point pooch. The Bengals are 4-1 but they should be 5-0 had it not been for that fluke TD by Denver in the opening game of the year. The best time to step in against a team is when everyone is on them and that’s precisely the situation we have here. To those that are on the Bengals, sorry, but that ship has already sailed and you missed out. It’s now time to go against them as the public continues to hammer them. What I do know is that the Bengals are in a huge letdown spot and they’re just an awful play as a favorite. In fact, the Bengals are 2-9 against the spread when laying points over its last 11 games as the chalk. The Texans are a dangerous team with a dangerous offense and great receivers and they’ll come in here and catch the Bengals way off their game and will likely leave with a win. Play: Houston +5 +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Marc Lawrence
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
The Texans take on the Bengals in Cincinnati knowing they are 7-0 ATS as dogs of 4 or more points when playing off a loss. They are also 4-1 ATS away from home against an opponent off a SU underdog win. That fits nice into Cincinnati's 1-11 ATS mark off a division game when facing a sub .500 opponent. Look for the underdog to improve to 6-0 ATS in Bengals games this season here today.
Play on: Houston
VEGAS EXPERTS
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs
Carolina enters Week 6 as the only NFL team yet to cover a single spread. They have an excellent chance to change that Sunday when they face the winless Bucs in Tampa. Tampa Bay's defense has been atrocious this year, allowing 28 PPG. That's a very bad number considering the Panthers are 45-4 ATS all-time when scoring 28 or more points & Tampa is 0-6 ATS when they do so. Regardless, Carolina is also 53-29 ATS vs. teams with a losing record. Lay the points with the road favorite.
Play on: Carolina
Michael Alexander
Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -9.5
The New England Patriots NFL Picks faithful were hoping that the return of Tom Brady was going to get them back into the playoffs after missing them last season. So far, it doesn't look that way as they come into this NFL Picks game versus the Titans at 3-2 overall. Both their offense and defense has been inconsistent and even with the return of LB Mayo last week gave up a game tieing 98 yard drive by the Broncos. They allowed QB Orton to pass for over 300 yards with two touchdowns as well. However this week they will be facing a Tennessee defense that ranks 31st in the league against the pass. New England is 3-0 in NFL Picks at home this season.
The Tennessee Titans come in at 0-5 and are one of the most disappointing teams this season. Starting out the season the Titans lost their first two NFL Picks games by only three points but that has gotten worse in each of their subsequent NFL Picks games. Tennessee's defense is a mere shell of itself as last NFL Picks year they allowed an average of 14.6 points to rank second in the league but are ranked 29th in scoring defense this season allowing almost 28 per game. The offense has been horrible as well as QB Kerry Collins has seven interceptions in their first five NFL Picks games. Star RB Chris Johnson has also struggled as last week he rushed for only 34 yards and hasn't had a touchdown since the second NFL Picks game of the season.
Historical Trends: Tennessee has won six of its L7 pre-bye week games, both SU & ATS, but has only gone 4-13 ATS in its L17 versus teams gaining over 375 yards per game on offense. New England is 28-14 off a loss under Bill Belichick and have won back-to-back homes games SU & ATS after going 3-10 ATS in their previous 13.
Play on New England
Evan Altemus
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -13.5
This game features two teams that are heading in completely different directions. Oakland’s offense is absolutely horrendous, and it is unlikely that they can even score back door touchdowns to get a cover. Last week they were hopeless against the New York Giants, and now they face a team of similar talent level. Oakland also doesn’t have much of a home field advantage because of how disenchanted the fans are. This game will be blacked out because the team cannot sell enough tickets for the game. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s offense is on fire since they Donovan McNabb has returned, scoring 67 total points. The spot here is not very good for Philadelphia, as they have to travel across the country when they have a divisional game against Washington looming next week. However, I feel that Oakland is so bad on both sides of the ball that it won’t matter. The Raiders have scored 16 total points in their last 3 games, and they are going to have to score over 14 points to have a chance to cover in this game, which won’t happen. Look for Philadelphia to cover by about a touchdown. 2 UNIT SELECTION
Matt Fargo
St Louis Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: St Louis Rams +9.5
The Rams are certainly not a very good and are arguably the worst team in the NFL right now. But how can Jacksonville be laying close to double-digits after getting absolutely annihilated last week in Seattle? Some will argue that this is the perfect bounce back position but I think it is just the opposite. If anything, it gives the Rams more confidence as they have nothing to lose at this point and feel they can hang with a team that just got their doors busted in. St. Louis lost last week at home against the Vikings by 28 points but it actually outgained Minnesota by 23 yards as it racked up 400 yards of total offense. Turnovers were the difference as the Rams gave it up three times inside the 10-yard line while also giving up a 48-yard fumble return for a touchdown. St. Louis is getting outscored by an average of 22.4 ppg on the season as the offense has had trouble scoring and the defense has had just the opposite effect on the opposition. To the Rams credit they have played the 6th toughest schedule in the NFL as three of their five games have come against teams ranked within the top half of the league. As for the Jaguars, it looked as though they had turned their season around with back-to-back wins over Houston and Tennessee but they took a big step backward last Sunday. After combining for 68 points in those two victories, they were able to get nothing against the Seahawks while mustering only 199 yards of offense. The offense is ranked middle of the pack but it has been hit or miss and even though the Rams are allowing a ton of points, the defense is ranked 23rd in the league which is actually better than the Sunday opponent. Jacksonville is 30th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 380.6 ypg and 25.4 ppg which is 24th in the NFL. If there is a defense that can get a struggling offense going, this could be the one. Marc Bulger will be getting the start this week at quarterback for the Rams. He ended the game last week by going 7-7 for 88 yards and a touchdown and while that was against a defense that had letup, it is still a great confidence booster. Even adding more confidence is playing against a defense that was rung up for 41 points last week. The Jaguars are just 1-8 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons including going 0-6 ATS as a home favorite. The Rams fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 90-48 ATS (65.2 percent) since 1983.Also, play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent since 1983. Both of these situations go all the way back to 1983 which makes them even more solid. Expect a closer than expected game in Jacksonville on Sunday. 3* St. Louis Rams
Doc's Sports
Take Over in Chicago @ Atlanta
Both of these teams are known for strong defenses but that has not been the case this season and we expect a shootout to develop playing in perfect conditions inside the dome. Atlanta was dominating last week putting up 45 points in a rout at San Francisco. The Bears have been able to get healthy and will enter this game off of a bye and did score 48 points the last time they were in action. The Bears will be without LB Brian Urlacher and will have to score points in order to win games in 2009. This year they have a big time playmaker at the quarterback position in Jay Cutler. Cutler is not afraid to throw the ball downfield and that creates big plays, whether it be by the offense or by the defense. That sets up well for a strong play on the over, as we will not worry if Atlanta can cover this spread. Doc’s Sports has a strong card coming this week in football, including our Revenge Game of the Year. This team will atone for last year and get the job done in a big way.
Craig Trapp
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -3
Close your eyes and imagine the defense of BAL past can you dream about them? OK well that dream is just that a dream. This defense is no longer the dominant defense of yesterday. Instead this defense has flashes of excellence but also has some huge lapses where they give out huge plays. Lucky for BAL the offense has improved but still are still not a dominant offense that can be counted on to win a high scoring affair.
Minnesota is riding high and really match up well with BAL this week. To beat the Ravens you need to run the ball and stay out of long yardage third downs. Well this MIN team is the best running team in the league with the best RB on the planet. MIN offense will have the Ravens scratching their head all day and will dominate TOP with the great run game. Defensively MIN will put constant presure on Flaco and will cause at least two to's.
Not as close as many are picking. SCORE MIN 27 - BALT 16
Freddy Wills
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: Saints -3
The Saints really impressed me when they played against the Jets and you think of this team as a passing team, but they rank 2nd in the league in rushing offense, and they will face a Giants 15th ranked rush defense. The Giants are vulnerable and banged up right now and their rush defense has faced an average 21st rushing offense. This week they will actually face a solid opponent as on both sides of the ball in terms of who they have faced have not been of quality. The Giants have faced an average 24th ranked total offense and an average 23rd total defense. You can see why they are #2 in offense and #1 in total defense. Saints on the other hand have been playing quality opponents and are more battle tested as well as coming off a bye. The extra preparation pays off in this league. Over the last few years the Giants have been the best road team, but on Sunday they fall into a tough situation against a hot team coming off the bye. If this game was later in the year I take the Giants, but here on Sunday because of where the Giants are, banged up and not battle tested, I'm going to have to take the Saints.
Rob Vinciletti
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Over 40.5
What we want to do is play the over when any team is a road favorite of -7 or more vs a non-division team,if they play a divisional opponent next week. This system has cashed 24 of 31 times going as far back as 1980. Both teams will put up points in this one. I expect the Raiders to play much better on offense this week,returning home off 2 bad road games. Philly has a solid offense that has scored over 30 points in 3 of their 4 games already this year. Look for a high scoring game here today.
Tom Freese
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Over
Arizona is 40-13 OVER their last 53 games as underdogs and they are 20-6 OVER off an ATS win. The Cardinals are 17-5 OVER their last 22 October games and they are 13-4 OVER their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Seattle is 23-8-1 OVER their last 32 October games and they are 4-0-1 OVER in Week 6. The Seahawks are 9-3 OVER after scoring more than 30 points in their last game and they are 8-2 OVER their last 10 games with the Cardinals. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Under
Hiroki Kuroda has been outstanding away from home this season and he's had very little trouble with the Phillies. Kuroda's 6-3 in 12 road appearances this season, sporting a 3.55 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He has three lifetime starts against the Phils, allowing just two earned runs and 11 base runners in 19 innings, for a 0.95 ERA and 0.58 WHIP, to go along with a .100 BAA. Kuroda held the Phils to two hits and no runs in six innings of a 3-2 Dodger win earlier this season. The Phils counter with Cliff Lee, who has been practically untouchable in his five starts at Citizens Bank Park since becoming a Philly. The southpaw was spectacular in his two playoff starts against the Rockies, holding them to two earned runs and 14 base runners in 16 1/3 innings, while striking out 10 batters. That's a fantastic 1.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP to go along with a .186 BAA. Lee shutdown the Dodgers in his only start in his career against them, and I expect more of the same tonight. I believe we have two strong hurlers, backed by two strong pens, adding up to a low-scoring contest. I'm playing the Under on Sunday night.