NICK PARSONS
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Cleveland Browns +15
Last week I gave you the Detroit Lions who kept it close enough to come away with an ATS victory with the large spread they were being afforded; this weekend I'm on another sizable underdog which should keep this one closer than most are thinking:
Miracle of miracles, the Cleveland Browns won last weekend, and despite being dubbed one of the ugliest games in NFL history, I look for Cleveland to carry some of that momentum into their matchup vs. Pittsburgh. "It's great," coach Eric Mangini said. "It's great. It's just fantastic." Jamal Lewis was a bright spot for Cleveland, gaining 117 yards. It marked the first time since December of 2007 that the Browns had 100-yard rushers in consecutive games (Jerome Harrison had 100 against Cincinnati).
On the other side of the field: The Steelers, who began 1-2 and were two games behind Baltimore in the AFC North Division, have made a comeback of sorts by winning two straight, including their first of the season on the road Sunday in Detroit. The decisions in all five of their games have come down to late in the fourth quarter or overtime though, and Sunday was no different in Detroit when the Steelers had to stop the Lions on a drive that carried to their 21 with two minutes left. The Steelers continue to struggle on the defensive side of the ball; Pittsburgh's defense has not been nearly as dominant as it was when it led the NFL last year. The Steelers have yielded 55 points in the fourth quarter. Take into account that Pittsburgh is a horrible 1-5 ATS its last six overall; 1-4 ATS its last five when playing the roll of favorite and just 1-2 ATS versus division opponents!
Bottom line: I believe this line is simply too high; last week the Browns played hard, if not well and I believe they'll do so again this week. I look for CLEVELAND to improve to 2-1 ATS versus division opponents and a perfect 2-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders
PICK: Philadelphia Eagles -14
We cashed in with the Eagles right here last week as they annihilated the Buccaneers and, as we stated last week, whatever happened to parity in the NFL? So far this season it continues to be a picture of the “rich getting richer” while the downtrodden teams continue to get hammered on a weekly basis. Overall, there have been a ton of blowouts this season in the NFL and the best versus worst disparity seems to be growing by a larger margin than ever. That entire scenario is unlikely to change this week in Oakland as the struggling Raiders are primed to get pummeled again. RB McFadden is still out with an MCL tear and, at QB, the Raiders really have no one to turn to behind Russell. In other words, the offense will continue to be the most inept in the league as they now face a solid (and opportunistic) Eagles defense that caused a lot of problems for the Bucs last week. Over the last four weeks, the Raiders average game has seen them allow more than twice as many first downs as they themselves have picked up. Also, they’ve been outgained in these four games by an average of 250 yards per game and have lost each game by an average margin of 20 points per game!
Oakland is one of four winless teams and they were absolutely pummeled by the Giants last week. We know this is a big spread for the Eagles to cover here but their three wins have come by an average margin of 22.3 points per game. Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb returned to the playing field last week and enjoyed a huge game against Tampa Bay. More good news for the Eagles was the return of Brian Westbrook last week. Yes he carried a “light load” in the game but the best news was that he reported no aftereffects. Philadelphia will continue to take advantage of a light schedule here (KC, bye week, TB, Oakland) as they gear up for the much bigger match-ups that are up ahead on their schedule. Note that, in the month of October, the Eagles are a perfect 10-0 ATS if they’re facing an opponent who has a losing record and is coming off of an away game. The Raiders, 1-4 this season, lost to the Giants at New York last week! Overall in all NFL games, double digit non-conference road favorites have covered six of the last nine and another blowout is on the NFL schedule Sunday and this one occurs in Oakland! Consider a small play on the EAGLES Sunday.
TEDDY COVERS
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
PICK: Chicago Bears +3.5
Last week, my clients and I cashed a Big Ticket report with a hungry, motivated Atlanta Falcons team coming off a bye as underdogs in San Francisco. This time around, the Falcons are the favorites, and they’ll be ones facing a hungry, motivated underdog coming off a bye week.
Last year, the Bears scored the game winning touchdown in Atlanta with 11 seconds remaining. Unfortunately for Chicago, their squib kick was not effective, and the Falcons got the ball at their own 44 yard line with six seconds left. One 26 yard Matt Ryan completion later, Jason Elam stole the victory away from Chicago with a 48 yard field goal with no time remaining. That loss cost the Bears a playoff berth; a truly bitter defeat. Revenge doesn’t mean much in the NFL, but in this rare instance, it means something very real.
The Bears have shown the ability to hang tough in hostile environments this year. They should have covered at Green Bay in Week 1; most assuredly the ‘right side’ in that ballgame, and they won outright in Seattle two weeks later. The Bears do not make good favorites, but they do make good underdogs, especially with their newfound confidence coming from behind late – Jay Cutler guided them to fourth quarter wins over the Steelers and Seahawks. In a game where any type of margin will be difficult to obtain, don’t expect either team to win this game by more than a field goal. 2* Take the Bears, but be sure to get ‘em +3.5 or higher!
John Ryan
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Play: Buffalo Bills +10
I nailed another 10* MNF winner with the Dolphins as they truly exposed the holes in the Jets defense. It wasn’t just the Wild Cat either that took its’ toll on that defense that allowed THREE go ahead touch downs in the 4th quarter. Short week for preparation and a bit of adversity for this Jets team may provide the best opportunity for Buffalo to gain some much needed respect with a solid showing in New Jersey. The Dolphins did a great job on nose tackle Kris Jenkins. He commands double teams on most every running play, but what Miami did was to use zone blocking to get him moving laterally. This in turn game the RB’s cut back lanes or simply solid holes in the middle of the line. Buffalo has been horrific in protecting their QB on 3rd and long situations. No doubt they will see what Miami did to get the running game in high gear and that will keep them out of third and long situations. This will also allow Edwards extra time by utilize play action and those are the situations that can get TO in man coverage and high percentage pass opportunities. The Jets are averaging 4.1 rushing yards per carry, but is not a true reflection of the running game. They had 38 yards rushing on 2 fake punts against the Dolphins and they have used a wide array of gadget and reverse plays. They are NOT a dominating running team between the tackles. With injuries to the Buffalo LB starters, the Jets will certainly try to run the ball between the tackles, but I do not see it being effective and the Buffalo defensive perimeter has done an excellent job remaining disciplined in pursuit. Combine the fundamental research with an Ai Simulator grading of 3 stars and you have the potential for a very close game. AiS shows a 70% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Her eis a supporting system that has gone 109-59 for 65% winners since 1983. That’s a 26-year track record of consistent winners broken out by a 47-27 10-year mark and a 26-15 5 year mark. Play on road teams that are bad team being outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game after a loss by 6 or less points. Yes, this is new coaching, but this is the first 2 game losing streak for coach Ryan. Note that the Jets are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bills.
MTI Sports
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Over
The Cardinals are 18-0 OU (+14.1 ppg) as a road dog when they failed to get into the end zone from a first and goal -- as long as the total was higher than 36, 15-0 OU (+11.1 ppg) since 2002 when visiting a team that has attempted an average of more than 35 passes per game season-to-date and 10-0 OU (+9.3 ppg) as a road dog off a game in which they converted less than 35% of their third downs. Note: as an road favorite in this situation, they are 0-3 OU (-8.8 ppg).
The Seahawks are 12-0 OU (+11.8 ppg) after a home win by more than a field goal in which they failed on at least two red zone attempts, 8-0 OU (+8.9 ppg) the week after a home game in which they stopped their opponent on more than 75% of their third downs attempts and 8-0 OU (+8.8 ppg) since 2004 after a home game when they had more than 33 minutes of possession time.
Consider these two OVER the total.
Alex Grosse
St Louis Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: St Louis Rams +10
The Rams are 0-5 this season and are being outscored by an average margin of 22.4 points per game. In fact, they have only won 5 of their last 37 regular season games. These guys are bound for an upset or at the very least they should be able to cover a spread. This matchup probably presents a strong opportunity for St. Louis to finally look somewhat like a competitive football team. The books are giving the Rams 9.5-10 points against an opponent that has had a lot of difficulty covering spreads as a favorite. Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 contests as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last 6 as a home favorite. The Jags probably looked even worse in their 41-0 blowout loss to Seattle last week than St. Louis did in any of its contests this season. There is no question that Steve Spagnuolo is sick and tired of watching his club get blown out by the opposition. I can guarantee you that he will have his squad well prepared for this contest and maybe just maybe the Rams may finally get their first win of the season.
Black Widow
1* on New England Patriots -9
Coming off a loss to the Denver Broncos in a game they led 17-7 at half, look for the Patriots to come out hungry at home Sunday. They face a Tennessee Titans team that is now 0-5 on the season after their 31-9 loss to the Colts last week. Tennessee is in a world of hurt at quarterback, and on the defensive side of the football. The Titans are allowing 27.8 points/game and 288 passing yards/game. New England is primarily a passing team so Tom Brady and company should have their way with this Tennessee secondary just as Peyton Manning did last week. The Patriots are 3-0 at home this season with solid wins over the Bills, Falcons and Ravens. Tennessee is losing by an average of 10.0 points/game on the road this year, which included a 20-point loss at Jacksonville in their last road trip. New England is scoring 26.0 points/game at home this year and averaging 402 yards/game of total offense. 26 points will be more than enough to win by double-digits Sunday against this pathetic Titans' offense that is scoring only 14.7 points/game away from home. The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take New England and lay the points.
John Martin
1 Unit on Carolina Panthers -3
The Panthers picked up the win they needed to get their season turned around against Washington last week, and now they keep that momentum going as they head into Tampa Bay to face the winless Buccaneers. Carolina rallied from a 17-2 deficit to win 20-17 last week, and now they have all the confidence in the world heading down south Sunday. Tampa Bay is in major rebuilding mode right now, and they aren't going to stop the bleeding this weekend. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on grass, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Bucs really haven't even been competitive this season for the most part. Carolina has owned Tampa Bay in the past, and the Panthers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Bucs overall. Carolina is 4-1 SU in their last 5 trips to Tampa Bay. Cash in with the Panthers as the favorite.
Joseph D'Amico
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -14
Pittsburgh is back on track, winning 2 in a row. RB Rashard Mendenhall has put up 243 YR in the last 2 games and rookie WR Mike Wallace is Pittsburgh's new deep threat. Safety Troy Polamalu is listed as probable after being out since Week 1. The Cleveland offense has now failed to score a TD in 9 of their last 11 games. Last week QB Derek Anderson was a dismal 2-17 passing at Buffalo. The favorite in this matchup is 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 meetings. The Brown's are 1-4 ATS their last 5 in Pitt and 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 vs. Pitt. Pittsbirgh covers.
EZWINNERS
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +6.5
The Redskins can't be trusted laying points even if it’s against a bad team. Washington is only 7-17-4 against the spread in their last twenty eight games against teams with losing records. The Redskins have had a very easy schedule to start the season and yet they are still struggling. The offense is horrible as they can't protect the quarterback and this has led to them only averaging 13 points a game this season against three of the worst teams in the league in the Rams, Lions and Buccaneers. On defense the addition of Albert Haynesworth was supposed to shut down the opponents running game, but yet the Skins are allowing more rushing yards this season than they did last year without Haynesworth. The Chiefs have played a much tougher schedule and fought Dallas down to the wire last week. Washington Head Coach Jim Zorn is on the hot seat and Washington's opponent is always in the game. The Skins have never won by more than eight points since Zorn has been in the nation’s capital. The Chiefs will give it their all. Take the points.
HENTAI SPORTS
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Prediction : New England Patriots -9
Coming off a loss to the Denver Broncos in a game they led 17-7 at half, look for the Patriots to come out hungry at home Sunday. They face a Tennessee Titans team that is now 0-5 on the season after their 31-9 loss to the Colts last week. Tennessee is in a world of hurt at quarterback, and on the defensive side of the football. The Titans are allowing 27.8 points/game and 288 passing yards/game. New England is primarily a passing team so Tom Brady and company should have their way with this Tennessee secondary just as Peyton Manning did last week. The Patriots are 3-0 at home this season with solid wins over the Bills, Falcons and Ravens. Tennessee is losing by an average of 10.0 points/game on the road this year, which included a 20-point loss at Jacksonville in their last road trip. New England is scoring 26.0 points/game at home this year and averaging 402 yards/game of total offense. 26 points will be more than enough to win by double-digits Sunday against this pathetic Titans’ offense that is scoring only 14.7 points/game away from home.
Tony Mathews
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings
Selection: Minnesota Vikings -3
Right now the Vikings are 5-0 SU and 4-1 against the spread having scored a minimum of 27 points throughout every game so far this year. Minnesota efficiently controls the ball and with QB Brett Favre and RB Adrian Peterson, display a very balanced attack. Both the Ravens and the Vikings have had a relatively easy schedule as far as opponents go, however, the Vikings’ have a much stronger defense and will also have a nice edge with confidence and a home field advantage.
At a glance the Raven’s statistics, both offensively and defensively, appear to show a good team. However with a closer look it is apparent that those statistics are skewed considering the skill level of recent opponents. For example, last week against Cincinnati, a team with a strong defense, the Ravens only managed 257 yards total, while giving up 348 yards.
This week the Ravens will be traveling to the Metrodome after suffering two devastating losses over the past two weeks. With high confidence after their huge victory last week and their home field advantage this week, expect to see the Vikings running game be hugely successful.
Lay the points with the Minnesota Vikings
Doug Williams
Tennesse @ New England -9
The Patriots aren't dominant anymore, but you can still see flashes of brilliance in them, the thing is, they're turning into a team that will just get er done.Titans cover +9
Baltimore @ Minnesota -3
Favre is really getting it done, and I think he'll still be able to stay healthy and composed for a few more weeks...but soon his 40s will start catching up with him, Baltimore has incredible run D, but A.P. is just that much more incredible! Minny Covers -3
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh -14
These massive lines are driving me nuts this season! But there is one thing I know, the Brown are horrible, but always play Pittsburgh Haaaard.Cleveland Covers +14
St. Louis @ Jacksonville -9.5
After being SHUT OUT by a 1 - 3 Seahawks team last week, the oddsmakers take 9.5 points away from the Rams! UN-Real. Now the Rams are terrible, and they won't be getting there first win here. Bounce back at home for the Jags. Jags Cover -9.5
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Pittsburgh –14 vs Cle
Pittsburgh/Cleveland Under38
Green Bay/Detroit Over 48
Seattle –3 vs Arizona
Single Plays
Kansas City +6 vs Washington
St. Louis +9.5 vs Jacksonville
Carolina –3.5 vs Tampa Bay
Green Bay –14 vs Detroit
Oakland +14 vs Philly
Minnesota/Baltimore Over 44.5
Sports Gambling Hotline
Houston +5' at CINCINNATI
Hats-off to the Bengals for springing the upset win last week at Baltimore, but Cincinnati was in their preferred "underdog role" for that contest.
Today the Bengals are over a field goal favorite, and we will go with the underdog Texans to prevail plus the points in the Queen City.
Houston has been one of those up-and-down teams this season, as evidenced by their alternating wins and losses through the first five games of the year. If you take note of that pattern, then they are due for a cover in this spot today.
The Texans have been showing some offensive firepower this season, and that should be good enough to keep them in this fight until the end.
The underdog has covered in ALL 5 of Cincinnati's games this season, and the Bengals are just 2-7 their last 9 when laying points as the home favorite their last 9.
Off a big upset win at Baltimore, and with a big home date against the Bears on-deck, we will look for the Texans plus the points to come through in this "sandwich" spot for Cincy.
Play on the Texans.
5♦ HOUSTON