Jeff Benton
Houston +5' at CINCINNATI
I’m on an 11-5 run with NFL free plays dating to last season. For Sunday, I’ll take the points with the Texans in Cincinnati.
The Bengals are the NFL’s darlings right now after ripping off four consecutive last-minute victories over the Packers (road), Steelers (home), Browns (road) and Ravens (road). And while you have to admire any team that can pull off that kind of late-game magic – especially after the way they lost to Denver in Week 1 on the miraculous Stokley catch-and-run – the fact remains that Cincinnati has trailed in all five of its games this season, including trailing four times in the fourth quarter. Remember, it was just two weeks ago that the crappy Browns nearly knocked off the Bengals.
To me, Cincinnati is living on borrowed time, and the oddsmakers have overreacted with this pointspread (because they knew the public would overreact). Fact is, the Texans and Bengals are very similar in terms of overall talent. And with any kind of fourth-quarter luck themselves, the Texans would be riding a four-game winning streak, too.
Since getting pushed around in a 24-7 home loss to the Jets on opening day, Houston owns two solid wins (34-31 at Tennessee; 29-6 at home versus Oakland) and two last-second losses (31-24 vs. Jacksonville; 28-21 at Arizona last week). The Texans had a chance to tie both the Jaguars and Cardinals late, but were stuffed inside the red zone both times (including failing to score on third- and fourth-and-goal from the 1 last week).
A year ago, Houston hammered the Bengals 35-6 as a nine-point home favorite, and the Texans have cashed in five straight games after a straight-up defeat, four straight after a non-cover and five of six as an underdog. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has struggled on the rare occasions it has been favored, going 1-5 ATS in the last six in that role. Grab the points with the visitor.
5♦ HOUSTON
Bobby Maxwell
Baltimore +3 at MINNESOTA
Had to settle for a push with Saturday's FREE selection on Oklahoma, but you know we would have cashed that one had Sam Bradford not been injured early in the first half. Today's comp play comes on the Ravens as they head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings.
This game sets up perfectly for Baltimore and that game-changing defense. The Ravens can certainly stop the run which will cause the Vikings to put the game in the hands of QB Brett Favre – something I think the Ravens would love to see.
Look for the Ravens to stuff the Vikings’ star RB Adrian Peterson at the line and in clear passing situations, they are going to blitz Favre and put him in uncomfortable situations, having to move his feet and causing him to throw on the run. All stuff that usually leads to INTs with him.
Baltimore’s offense struggled last week in a 17-14 loss to the Bengals at home, coming up short as a nine-point favorite. Other than last week, Joe Flacco has had this offense playing well this season, averaging 27.6 points a game and 382.2 yards per game, both good for fifth in the NFL.
Minnesota had a laugher last week against the Rams, winning 38-10 as a 10-point favorite, but their schedule now turns to finally having some tough games. The Vikings have built their 5-0 record with three wins against the NFL’s cellar-dwellars, and close wins at home against the Niners and Packers.
Baltimore is on ATS runs of 14-5 overall, 8-3 on the road, 5-2 after an ATS loss and 5-1 as a ‘dog of up to three points. On the opposite side, the Vikings are on ATS slides of 1-4 at home, 1-4 against winning teams, 5-11 after a SU win and 3-7 after an ATS win.
Look for Baltimore’s defense to redeem itself after two straight losses. Some key INTs will lead the Ravens today. Grab the points and play Baltimore.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Karl Garrett
Baltimore at MINNESOTA
Anytime the G-Man sees a game involving Minnesota, my immediate thought is to look OVER the total.
That happens to be the case once again today as the Ravens pay their first visit ever to the Metrodome.
Baltimore is surely noted for their defense, but did you know that the Ravens are on a 9-4 OVER the total run their last 13 on the road? Both of their road games this year at San Diego, and New England have eclipsed the total, and this one will as well before it is all said and done.
Minnesota hasn't scored less than 27-points in any of their 5 wins this season, and they have rung up 30 or better in 3 of their 5 games.
With Brett Favre finding his groove with this loaded offense, the potential for points is always a moment away, especially when you consider Favre has yet to show his "ugly side" just yet.
Mark the G-Man down for a play on the OVER between the Ravens and the Vikings.
5♦ OVER
Steve Duemig
Kansas City +6' at WASHINGTON
Ugly game but we can look at this game that way or try to find the silver lining. KC is playing hard and has suffered some heart breaking losses to Dallas and Oakland. they are showing no signs of quitting either. Washington on the other hand is crying in the media that they want their owner to give a public vote of confidence to their head coach for the season so they don't have to continue to answer questions about it. Thatis a major distraction right there and Snyder has not said a word as of yet.. This game will be in the hands of the QB's and it looks as if Cassels might have the better down field weapons in this one to get their first victory and continue the Zorn controversy.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -3.5
This is a statement game for the Saints to show the NFL that it is for real this season. Off a bye week, New Orleans will be fresh and well prepared. It also catches a break with Eli Manning not being at 100 percent. The Saints have an improved running game to take the pressure off of QB Drew Brees and a defense ranked sixth in the league. After 3 weeks of playing cupcakes, I have the Giants getting stung in the Superdome. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 32.8 to 17.1 in these games, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Take the Saints for 1 Unit.
Charlie Scott
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Chicago Bears +3.5
The Bears come off their bye week, with revenge on their mind. You know the Bear Coaches have emphasized the last 2 weeks is improving and getting the Falcons back for a game the Bears basically gave away in the last seconds last season. We had Atlanta last week when they went to San Francisco and blew them out, and now the way NFL parity is, it's time to play the Bears and take the points. Bears QB Cutler has improved each week as he develops a "feel" with his receivers.
LT Profits
Washington Redskins -6
While we readily admit that their offense makes the Washington Redskins a risky investment as favorites, we actually think that the nice effort by the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Dallas Cowboys last week has made this line a tad short.
After all, the Chiefs are still 0-5 straight up this season and averaging only 16.8 points per game while allowing an unacceptable 27.6 points per contest. They used up a lot of energy in that home loss to Dallas, only to suffer a disheartening overtime loss. We are not sure they have enough left in the tank today to bring that same intensity on the road vs. a Redskins team that does not have the same marquis appeal as the Cowboys.
Now granted, Washington is averaging a woeful 14.6 points per game, but they do have a good defense, allowing 16.4 points and only 290.6 total yards per game. Thus, we could easily see the Skins holding Kansas City to 10 points or less here, so the question becomes can they score 17 points? Well, the Chiefs defense is allowing a whopping 402.8 total yards per game, so even the Redskins should have at least some success against them.
The bottom line here is that if not for the results of last week, Washington would be closer to -8 here instead of laying less than a touchdown. As bad as the Redskins offense has been, we see value at this deflated line vs. a winless team that plays no defense.
Pick: Redskins -6
Dave Price
1 Unit on Carolina Panthers -3
Expect Carolina to build off of its first win of the season against the winless Bucs here. Here's the key: Carolina is on a 31-14 ATS run versus poor rushing defenses allowing 130 or more rushing yards per game. The Panthers are winning these games by an average score of 22.5 to 16.3. Carolina will be able to keep it on the ground today, limiting their turnovers, to get the win and the cover. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Green Bay Packers -14
Bottom Line: The Packers entered their bye week off a tough divisional loss to Minnesota and I expect them to come out of it with a blowout win over lowly Detroit. Remember when the Packers were upset by Cincinnati in Week 2? They followed that up with a 36-17 win over an inferior Rams team. I expect them to do major damage to another inferior team today, one they have owned forever. Green Bay is a perfect 18-0 at home against Detroit since 1992, going 12-4-2 ATS in those games and winning by an average of 13 ppg. That's a big average margin of victory over a long period of time. Over the last 3 seasons, the Packers are 4-0 in all matchups with Detroit, winning by an average of 17 ppg. I'll back the Packers at home today.
Freddy Wills
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
Take Saints -3
The Saints really impressed me when they played against the Jets and you think of this team as a passing team, but they rank 2nd in the league in rushing offense, and they will face a Giants 15th ranked rush defense. The Giants are vulnerable and banged up right now and their rush defense has faced an average 21st rushing offense. This week they will actually face a solid opponent as on both sides of the ball in terms of who they have faced have not been of quality. The Giants have faced an average 24th ranked total offense and an average 23rd total defense. You can see why they are #2 in offense and #1 in total defense. Saints on the other hand have been playing quality opponents and are more battle tested as well as coming off a bye. The extra preparation pays off in this league. Over the last few years the Giants have been the best road team, but on Sunday they fall into a tough situation against a hot team coming off the bye. If this game was later in the year I take the Giants, but here on Sunday because of where the Giants are, banged up and not battle tested, I'm going to have to take the Saints.
Jr Tips
Bears at Falcons
Jay Cutler will try to lead the Bears to their fourth straight victory tonight when they visit Ryan and the Falcons, who are coming off a breakout offensive performance. Chicago (3-1) will start the only visiting quarterback to win at the Georgia Dome in nearly two years as Cutler who was acquired in the offseason from Denver, led the Broncos to a 24-20 victory last Nov. 16 with a fourth-quarter touchdown drive. The Falcons (3-1) have won five straight at home since that defeat, including consecutive victories to open this season, and are 10-1 in the Georgia Dome since Dec. 30, 2007.Cutler has played well since throwing a career-worst four interceptions in his Bears debut, a 21-15 loss at Green Bay on Sept. 13 as he has had just one pass picked off and thrown seven touchdowns in Chicago's three straight victories.He passed for just 141 yards in the Bears' 48-24 home victory over Detroit on Oct. 4th. The Falcons dominated San Francisco last week 45-10 as Matt Ryan threw for a career-best 329 yards and two touchdowns to Roddy White, and capped the scoring with a 1-yard run midway through the fourth quarter. White finished with a team-record 210 yards on eight receptions, including a 90-yard touchdown that started a string of 31 unanswered points.The Falcons finished with 477 total yards of offense, their best output since 2002. Atlanta's running back Miachael Turner ranks sixth this season with 80.8 yards per game and the Bears, meanwhile, have struggled to run the ball for much of this season. Matt Forte finished with 121 yards on 12 carries and scored his first touchdown in the win over the Lions, but 61 yards came on one run and that 1 run accounts 17 percent of Chicago's 366 rushing yards in 2009. The Bears rank 27th in the NFL with 91.5 rush yards per game and Forte has run for 271 yards this season after gaining 1,238 as a rookie.The Bears have won eight of 10 meetings with the Falcons, however, they are 2-2 at the Georgia Dome after last season's bitter defeat. It's tough to win a game against a very good offensive team on the road. Without a consistent run game, the Bears will have to rely soley on Cutler and in the loud Georgia Dome on a Sunday night, that will be trouble for any quarteback against this falcon offense who will continue to put up points and keep the pressure on all night.
TAKE FALCONS -3.5
BIG AL
Los Angeles at Philadelphia
The Dodgers were six outs away from being down 0-2 in this series after the first two games at home and that would been all but the end of them as they now have to travel across the country to Philadelphia for games three and four. But the meltdown everyone expected from the Phillies bullpen became reality as Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre, Ryan Madson, and J.A. Happ combined for only two outs with three hits and two walks, including the bases loaded free pass to Andre Ethier that gave the Dodgers their winning run. After Pedro Martinez completely shut down the Dodgers over seven innings, the Dodgers have to be thrilled going to Phily with a 1-1 split. Righthander Hiroki Kuroda will see his first action of the 2009 postseason while lefthander Cliff Lee will be making his third start already (the first starter to do so in this postseason). Lee will likely have many more issues with the Dodger hitters than he had with those of the Rockies as while the Colorado lineup has struggled against southpaws all season, Los Angeles has feasted on them as they did in game one when they knocked around Cole Hamels for four earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings. In three games played between these two at Citizens Bank Ballpark in 2009, a total of 27 runs were scored, or an average of nine runs per game.
PLAY OVER
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Houston over Cleveland
By the way, last week we projected a spread cover for Washington and the ‘Skins managed to take home the cash with a 20-17 loss to Carolina. Here was a 0-4 Carolina team being favored at home, versus Washington who had already won 2 games? To take the point further, the public perception bought into that mindset as in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest the #1 selection overwhelming was the Panthers. Here, I am going against the red-hot Bengals who lead the AFC North with a 4-1 mark. Looking at current reality trends, Cincinnati 0-5 ATS off a SU win as an underdog, and 0-4 ATS off back-back road games. From the schedule standpoint, the improved Bengals have played a highly rated tandem of games, including Denver, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Baltimore, so this could be a flat spot. If the Houston defense can keep RB Benson under control, a SU win would be no surprise.
Andre Gomes
CIN / HOU Over 46
Although we are dealing with a high totals line in this contest, I think that the matchup between these two teams favors a shootout game and the situation of both teams complements the potential of this game being a high scoring affair.
The Bengals have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, as they currently have a 4-1 record, with wins over the Packers, the Steelers and the Ravens and with their only loss being in the first week against the Broncos on a bizarre late play. They are coming from three consecutive divisional games against the Steelers, the Browns and the Ravens and granted those 3 games were physically brutal for the Bengals. Playing against the Steelers and the Ravens is always tough and against the Browns, they played an extra 15 minutes of football in overtime, so this game against the Texans represents a potential huge letdown for the Bengals.
Cincinnati has been impressive lately, but the last time they faced a potent pass happy offense, they allowed 24 points against the Packers and the Texans offense is a terrific pass offense team. Houston is coming from a tough and weird loss last week in Arizona against the Cardinals, in which they couldn't score in the first half and in the final drive of the game, they missed 4 consecutive chances to tie the game in the Cardinals' end zone. QB Matt Schaub and his receiving corps are looking impressive this season - except in their first game against the Jets - and on the road they have already scored 34 and 21 points. As I expect a letdown from the Bengals defense, I think that the Texans have great conditions to put a lot of points in the board.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have a well balanced offense with Carson Palmer and RB Cedric Benson. Benson is having a huge impact in the team and last week he ran for 120 yards against the Ravens - he was the first running back to run at least for 100 yards against the Ravens in a long time. The Bengals offense is in the middle of the pack in the league averaging 335.4 yards per game, but let's not forget that they already faced the Broncos, Steelers and the Ravens in 5 games! The Texans have tremendous problems in stopping the run, as they are allowing 140.6 rushing yards per game and this number could had been even worse, if they hadn't had faced the Cardinals last week, as Arizona ran for only 44 yards. So, we can expect the Bengals to have the edge on the ground, while Palmer is also able to make big plays with Ocho Cinco anytime in the game.
The matchup between these two teams favors a high scoring game, as they have different edges on the field. The Bengals are primed for a defensive letdown and the Texans don't have problems in making big plays. The same thing can be said about the Bengals running game. We have a 46 points line for this contest, when my numbers say it should be at 51/52 points. Take the over in here.
DWAYNE BRYANT
NFL 7-point Teaser
Texans +12.5 to Patriots -2
Cincinnati is definitely a much improved team this season, but they can't be trusted as chalk just yet. The Bengals have four wins on the young season, but none by more than a TD. Their last three wins were each by a FG. Houston has the offense to keep pace and stay well within this number.
I have to back the Patriots here, as Bill Belichick always has his troops ready to roll when coming off a loss. Tennessee is clearly not the same team that went 13-3 last season. The offense is one-dimensional and the defense cannot stop the pass. Brady should have a field day with all his weapons.