Yankee Capper
Pittsburgh Steelers -14
Kansas City Chiefs +6
New York Giants +3
Los Angeles Dodgers RL
Bob Balfe
Minnesota -3 over Baltimore
The Vikings are hot going against a Ravens Defense that has lost a step. Baltimore has allowed their first 100 yard rusher in 39 games last week against the Bengals and today they get to try to handle Adrian Peterson. Minnesota has a huge size advantage of offense and should score a ton of points. The Vikings Defensive line is huge and Jared Allen should have a field day with the Ravens starting left tackle out for this game. Look for the Vikings Defense and Offense to play a perfect game. Minnesota should win this game with ease.
Jimmy the Moose
Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders
McNabb returned to the Eagles in week 5 and looked very good against a weak Tampa team and expect him to put up even bigger numbers in week 6 vs. a horrible Raiders team. The Raiders can't score and have a tough time playing D and until they start resembling a real NFL team they are going to be big dogs and unfortunately they won't be able to cover the line.
The Eagles are 3-1 SU and ATS and are getting healthier which is bad news for their opponents. Philadelphia is averaging 31.8 PPG while the D has allowed an average of 21.5 per contest. The D can and will get better but when you have such a potent offense it can work itself out. In their last 12 games overall the Eagles are 9-3 ATS. In their last 10 games played on grass they are a profitable 8-2 ATS. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record and in their last 18 road games they are 13-5 ATS.
Oakland is a really bad team that isn't showing any signs of getting better. The Raiders are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS but nothing about them makes you believe that they can win or even keep a game close vs. a good team like the Eagles. They are only averaging 9.8 PPG while allowing 26 per contest and that equals blowout. In their last 51 home games Oakland is 15-35-1 ATS and in their last 28 as a home dog they are 8-20 ATS. The Raiders are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games played in October.
Play on the Philadelphia Eagles
Stephen Nover
Houston +5' at CINCINNATI
It's not surprising the underdog is 5-0 against the spread in Cincinnati's games this season since every matchup has come down to the final play.
I like the Bengals far more as an underdog. They have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been chalk. Cincinnati is 3-14-2 against the spread in its last 19 October games. It's a letdown spot for the Bengals, off three straight AFC North Division games.
The Bengals upset Baltimore as a nine-point road 'dog last week. The game was especially emotional for Cincinnati because popular defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife passed away just prior to the game. It's going to be tough for the Bengals to get excited about this matchup after going all out last Sunday.
Yes, the Bengals are improved. But so are the Texans. Houston has one of the most explosive offenses in football averaging 27 points in their last four games. Matt Schaub has already put together three 300-yard passing games. Andre Johnson has been the most productive wide receiver in the NFL during the last three years.
The Bengals are 4-1, but only one of their wins was by more than three points. Their average victory margin is four points.
The Texans have covered five of their last eight road games. They are 2-3 this season, but could easily be 4-1. The Texans were stopped on late goal line stands in two of their losses. By this time, Houston coach Gary Kubiak should realize Chris Brown isn't the guy to give the ball to in short-yardage situations.
The Texans rate a strong edge in special teams against the Bengals with the better kicking and return game.
2♦ HOUSTON TEXANS
Michael Cannon
Kansas City +6 at WASHINGTON
I’m now 7-0-1 with my last eight free plays!
Take the points with the Chiefs this afternoon on the road over the Redskins.
Kansas City almost claimed its first win of the year last week against the Cowboys, but fell 26-20 in overtime. The Chiefs actually led 13-3 at halftime so look for a more complete effort this week.
Washington is dealing with the official Jim Zorn watch right now and you have to wonder how they’ll respond under this kind of pressure. It’s not like the Redskins have been an offensive juggernaut either as they’ve been held to 17 points or less in all five games this year and 13 of their last 16 going back to last season.
With such an impotent offense they don’t figure to cover this kind of number.
The Redskins are also a pitiful 1-8-1 ATS when hosting AFC teams.
Take the points with the Chiefs as they stay within the number.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
NY Giants +3 at NEW ORLEANS
Take the points with the Giants today on the road over the Saints.
Great matchup between undefeated NFC teams, but I think the better team is getting the points here and it doesn’t matter where the game is being played.
I know all about Drew Brees and the vaunted Saints offense, but there are still question marks about their defense.
No such question exists about the Giants though.
They have it all. Strong quarterback play, a superior ground game, a great offensive line and a dominating defense.
Put all that together and they have what it takes to put the first blemish on the Saints record this year.
New York is second in the NFL offensively averaging 417.4 yards per game and leads the league defensively allowing just 210.6 yards per game.
The Giants are on pointspread streaks of 37-18-2 overall, 15-4 on the road, 17-4 against winning teams, 16-5-1 as an underdog and 18-7-1 in October.
The Saints, who are coming off their bye week, are 0-4 SU in their last four in that role.
Take the points with the Giants and don’t be surprised to see them grab the outright win.
3♦ NY GIANTS
Drew Gordon
Arizona at SEATTLE -3
For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Arizona at Seattle match up!
Love what I've seen from the Seahawks at home this season, outscoring the opposition 88 to 25, going 2-1 SUATS at Qwest Field! True, two of those wins came against the Rams and Jaguars, but the Jags aren't terrible and their 25-19 loss to the Bears was without Hasselback (more of that later). Needless to say, it may have taken them some time to get going with all the injuries, but right now I'm buying what Seattle is selling!
Speaking of Hasselback, he's finally healthy, and it's paid instant dividends for the Seahawks. His 4 TD perfomance last week against the Jaguars was very impressive, and the fact he spread the ball around (typical Hasselback) AND apparently has found a reinvigorated Nate Burleson along the way, has this Seattle passing attack firing on all cylinders!
Herein lies the problem for Arizona, as we all know both teams love to pass the ball. HOWEVER, the difference is their ability to defend against the pass, as the Seahawks allow just 195 passing yards per game at Qwest Field! While the Cardinals are surrendering a whopping 303 passing yards per game on the season! Hasselback is going to torch this Cardinals secondary today, but I just don't see the same happening for Warner and company, as an aggressive Seattle stop-unit throws off his timing from the get-go... Just like they did to the Jags and Garrard last week!
Finally, from a trend standpoint, there's a couple strong reasons to like the Seahawks here, including the fact they're on solid runs of 9-2 ATS as a home favorite AND 9-4 ATS in the division. The Cardinals meanwhile, come into this game just 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or less. Look guys, in the end, the Seahawks are no joke at home, and with Hasselback finally back, look for them to take care of business Sunday afternoon.
Take Seattle over Arizona in this NFL match up.
4♦ SEATTLE
Chris Jordan
Tennessee +9' at NEW ENGLAND
Watched the Patriots in person last week, and I am here to tell you this is a team that is average - at best.
It's really that simple, and now that Tennessee is a stunning 0-5, it's about time it catch a break against a team no one suspects the Titans have a chance against, because there is so much surrounding said opponent.
I saw too many bad things involving Tom Brady and a lost defense that no longer has a leader to step and spark the unit when necessary.
And here's what it boils down to, Bill Belichick - as smart as he is - won't think there's much to do with his team; just have Brady throw on target and the defense shore up the gaps. Jeff Fisher, on the other hand, knows he needs to make adjustments.
So while the Pats will come out doing the same things, Tennessee will be doing whatever it takes to win.
This is a live dog today.
1♦ TITANS
Dominic Fazzini
Tennessee at NEW ENGLAND -9'
I pushed Saturday on the Oklahoma-Texas showdown, but the only thing I'm going to be pushing today is a lot of money into my pocket when I clean up at the sports books today!
The Patriots haven't been the dominating team they were before Tom Brady got hurt last year, but they should have more than enough firepower to blast the Titans.
Tennessee's season essentially ended last week with its 31-9 home loss to Indianapolis, pushing its record to 0-5 after going 13-3 in 2008.
The Titans' defense, once a source of pride for the team, is allowing 27.8 points per game, and now Tennessee comes into today's game missing both its starting cornerbacks, which is not a good way to enter a game against a Brady-led offense.
Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the rest of New England's receiving corps should have a field day against Tennessee, which is allowing 287 passing yards per game and could be forced to start two rookies at corner.
The Titans have a strong running game with Chris Johnson and LenDale White at running back, but I expect Bill Belichick to devise a solid game plan that will focus on Tennessee's ground attack and make QB Kerry Collins try to beat New England through the air.
The Titans are 0-4 ATS this year since covering against Pittsburgh in Week 1. With Tennessee already facing a meaningless season, the Patriots should roll in this one. Take New England to pile up the points and cover the spread.
4♦ NEW ENGLAND
Tony Weston
How easy was that Arkansas winner yesterday? The Razorbacks were close to cashing in with the outright win, but did enough to cash in.
I’m cashing in once again today as I’m taking the Chiefs on the road at the Redskins.
Through their first five games of the season the Chiefs have had to play one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, including three teams from the NFC East, probably the toughest division in football, and had to open the season on the road at a Baltimore Ravens team that is one of the best in the AFC.
The Redskins, on the other hand, have covered in just one game this season and that came last week on the road at Carolina, where Washington lost 20-17, but covered as a 5-point underdog.
However, despite last week’s cover, Washington has gone just 3-8-2 ATS its last 13 games overall and has failed to cover in 5 straight when installed as a home favorite.
Consider, too, the Redskins have covered in just 1 of their last 8 games at home and have covered in just 6 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record.
Kansas City will flirt with the outright win and definitely cover as a road underdog in this one.
3♦ CHIEFS
Craig Davis
I'm going against the trends here and taking the OVER in the Cincy/Houston matchup. Popular opinion says Houston won't be able to move the ball on Cincy's defense much like they weren't able to move the ball on the Jets defense in Week 1. Popular opinion also says the Bengals don't score a bunch of points and will be happy just to keep it on the ground with Cedric Benson. I actually don't agree with that assessment. I think Houston's Week 1 performance was a mirage. The Jets snuck up on them... no one was ready for how good this defense was going to be. Since that game the Texans have scored 21 or more points in all four of their following games. Bottom line, this team can score against anyone... including the Bengals. Cincy, on the other hand, is going to have to come from behind to win. Houston knows the best way to beat the Bengals is to get ahead and make Carson Palmer try to beat you. This causes some late touchdowns and will easily push our total OVER the numbers. I'm looking for something in the neighborhood of 27-23, which gets us over the total of 45. Play the OVER.
2♦ Texans-Bengals OVER
Jimmy Thompson
Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -14
The Steelers will be back to form today as Polamalu is back in the secondary. This is an average defense when he is out and when he is in it is one of the 5 best in football. Cleveland will complete more than 2 passes today, but Pittsburgh will complete about 20 more than they do as Big Ben has another monster game leading the Steelers to a 41-13 win!
LARRY NESS
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
PICK: Houston Texans +5.5
The Texans have gone 8-8 the last two season but are still looking for their first winning season since joining the NFL in 2002. Will this be the year? The Texans are 2-3 coming into Sunday's game and could sure use a win here vs the 4-1 Bengals. Are the Bengals 'ripe' to be had? I think so. Cincinnati opened with that crushing Week 1 loss at home to the Broncos (87-yard tipped TD pass in the game's final seconds) but has won four in a row since. They went head-to-head with the Packers (won 31-24) and have added three straight division wins (all by three points). They made a great comeback to beat the Steelers 23-20 in the game's final seconds, needed OT to escape vs the hapless Browns (also 23-20) and last week won at Baltimore, 17-14. The Bengals are not as good as their 4-1 record while the Texans are better than a 2-3 team (a little luck and they could be 4-1, 3-2 at worse). Carson Palmer has not been all that great (7-6 ratio and a QB rating of only 76.9) plus let's not anoint Cedric Benson just yet, even though he did have 120 yards vs the Ravens (1st RB in 40 games to crack 100 yards vs Baltimore). The Cincy pass D can be taken advantage of (61.0% completions and 229 YPG) and Schaub( 64.2% / 283.6 YPG / 10-4 ratio / 97.9 rating) can make the Bengals 'pay.' WR Andre Johnson of Houston is "as good as it gets." The Bengals are going for a fifth straight win during a single season for the first time since they opened 6-0 back in 1988 (made it to the Super Bowl that year). Meanwhile, the Texans have alternated wins and losses in 2009. Coming off a heartbreaking 28-21 loss last week in Phoenix (Houston came up empty on three plays from the one-yard line in the final minute of that game), the Texans are 'due' for a win. The team is also due to start making some headway in the red zone, as the Texans are 29th in the league in red zone efficiency. The Bengals are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite and off four straight hard-fought wins, are 'ripe to be plucked.' Take the points.