Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NHL

St. Louis at Anaheim
The Blues head to Anaheim tonight where they are 4-17-1 in their last 22 meetings versus the Ducks. Anaheim is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-140)

Game 51-52: Minnesota at Los Angeles (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 13.206; Los Angeles 12.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Under

Game 53-54: San Jose at NY Rangers (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.986; NY Rangers 12.352
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-115); Over

Game 55-56: Calgary at Winnipeg (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.311; Winnipeg 11.489
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+125); Over

Game 57-58: St. Louis at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.429; Anaheim 12.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-140); Under

CFL

Edmonton at Saskatchewan
The Eskimos (10-5 SU) head to Saskatchewan today to face a Roughriders team that is 7-3-2 ATS in its last 12 games versus a team with a winning SU record. Saskatchewan is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4)

Game 497-498: Edmonton at Saskatchewan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 110.172; Saskatchewan 115.571
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5; 52
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 4; 48
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4); Over

Sleepyj

Chicago -3

Get this now at -3...Plenty of -3 out there right now...If you wait the value will be gone..This may close near -6...It was a crushing defeat for Miami against GB..Now they need to take that act on the road in the cold..Tannehill is not impressive at all..The Bears finally played a solid defensive game..That will carry over here at home..Look for Chicago to make it 2 in a row..This game for Chicago is MUST WIN....next game @ NE..then a bye..then @ GB...They can't afford a slip here being a .500 team...I think Bears can throttle this MIA team potentially..Grab this -3 now.

Art Aronson

San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -6½

One of the biggest games this weekend will see the 4-2 San Francisco 49ers travel to Denver to take on the 4-1 Broncos at Mile High on Sunday night; when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I believe the home side will have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. These teams of course “get the job done” with different styles, the Broncos continue to be one of the league’s best offensive units, while the 49ers dominate clubs with their smothering defensive play. Right now Denver ranks third in the league in scoring with 29.4 PPG, Peyton Manning has been leading the charge with 15 TD passes thus far, only once posting a passer rating of less than 110.2. San Francisco ranks second in the NFL in giving up just 207.3 passing yards per contest, during its three-game win skein it’s held opposing QB’s to just a 50.8 completion percentage. But this is a tough spot for San Francisco, it would come from behind to knock off the Rams on Monday Night Football last week, but the victory came at a cost as the team lost the services of LB Patrick Willis and most likely WR Stevie Johnson to injury. This is the first time that the 49ers have been an underdog this year and I think for good reason; note that San Francisco is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Denver is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the same points range. In my opinion, the sharp wager in this contest is on DENVER; how about you? Do you think the Broncos will roll this weekend, or is there an upset a brewin’?!

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Teddy Covers

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts -3

The Bengals went into their bye week at 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, in large part because their defense dominated all three of those early season contests (wins over the Ravens, Titans and Falcons). But in two games since their bye week, Marvin Lewis’s defense has been positively torched, allowing 80 points and 936 yards to the Patriots and Panthers. The season long stats still show the Bengals with a Top 10 defense on a ‘yards-per-play’ basis, allowing 5.3 yards per opposing snap. But those numbers were elite two weeks ago; not anywhere near elite today. That being said, Cinci still ranks #2 in the NFL in yards per play differential; in large part due to the big play ability from Andy Dalton and the passing game.

Part of the problem for the Cincinnati defense has been injuries. They are missing star LB Rey Maualuga (downgraded to doubtful for Sunday) while fellow LB mauler Vontaze Burfict has missed time and could miss more time with concussion issues. Throw in injuries to DT Brandon Thompson and LB Emmanuel Lamur and we’re talking about a squad that could be without their entire starting linebacker corps against the Colts on Sunday. With former coordinator and noted defensive guru Mike Zimmer now coaching the Vikings, it’s reasonable to expect at least a modest drop-off from the Bengals stop unit moving forward.

The Bengals offense didn’t miss a beat without starting wideouts AJ Green and Marvin Jones last week, both of whom are questionable to play this weekend. Mohammed Sanu and Jermaine Gresham picked up the slack, combining for 16 receptions between them. And RB Giovani Bernard finally broke his first long touchdown run of the season against the Panthers last Sunday after being held to 16 yards or less on every previous carry this season.

The Colts statistical profile is mediocre once again this year. The wiseguys have been consistently fading Indy for the last few seasons in large part because of their statistical mediocrity. Despite their 4-2 record, Chuck Pagano’s squad has been outgained on a yards-per-play basis this year; ranked outside the Top 20 teams in the league in that key wiseguy metric. That’s not their only mediocre stat! Indy is mediocre at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns and mediocre at holding opponents out of the end zone with their own red zone chances.

But the Colts have one defensive stat that really stands out – their percentage of third down conversions allowed. The Colts have held foes under 30% conversions on their third down tries, best in the NFL. And with Andrew Luck showing consistent excellence at converting Indy’s own third down chances (ranked in the top quartile of the league with more than 45% conversions), it becomes very clear. The Colts are extending drives while their opponents are not, week after week.

Don’t expect a late flood of sharp money pushing this pointspread off the current number of Indy -3. The wiseguys haven’t bet on the Colts in any significant way this year, and I don’t expect that to change this week. Plus, if AJ Green plays for the Bengals, he'll surely attract some Cinci $$. That leaves the Colts as an undervalued commodity moving forward, just as they have been; now 24-13-1 (65%) ATS in the Andrew Luck era.

Bryan Power

Arizona vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland

The Raiders were a nice winner for me last Sunday, very nearly upsetting the heavily favored Chargers outright. Taking points for a second straight week at home, I'll back them again here vs. the Arizona Cardinals.

Can somebody please explain the Cardinals to me? A team that has had to cycle through three different QB's in five games, none of them particularly awe-inspiring choices, is somehow 4-1 SU and leading the very tough NFC West. Plus, they have taken a TON of personnel losses on the defensive side of the ball from LY's outstanding group due to injury, suspension or free agency. Cornerback Patrick Peterson hasn't really even played up to par to this point.

That said, give Arizona credit for a well-deserved win over Washington last week. Of course, they didn't really deserve the cover. They have Redskins QB Kirk Cousins to thank for that as he threw a late pick six that put the Cards in the black. Infamously, that was one of two very late pick six's on Sunday that resulted in an ATS win for the favorite (Denver was the other). Sadly, I lost on both games, something I remain fairly bitter about! I was shocked to see QB Carson Palmer attempt 44 passes after reportedly not being able to throw the ball at all for five weeks due to a "dead nerve" in his shoulder. That should be a concern moving forward. Palmer can't really rely on a running game which ranks 30th in the league right now. Arizona was outgained by Washington 407-317 last week. They have not been a road favorite of more than a field goal at any point in the last three seasons.

I thought Oakland was in a good spot last week as a significant home dog coming off a bye and coaching change. QB Derek Carr played by far his best game yet and actually has 11 TD passes so far. That's a very good number for a rookie through five games and by having four in one game (last week) he joined a pretty exclusive list of signal callers. He had six third down completions vs. the Chargers, three of them going for TD's. At the end of the day though, the Raiders are still winless. But because of that, I expect another solid effort for interim HC Tony Sparano.

Ray Monohan

Cincinnati vs. Indianapolis
Play: Cincinnati +3

These teams met last year and the Bengals won. Sure they were at home but they won even though Andrew Luck had a fantastic day at the office. They won because they shut down the running game completely, a part of the Indy game that is a problem once again. This will be a hard fought battle but I think the Bengals emerge victorious again. Taking the three point cushion just adds a little confidence.

Tony George

Minnesota vs. Buffalo
Play: Buffalo -6

Going to fade the injury riddled Vikings here on the road. I expect a good Buffalo team to bounce back after the Pats waxed them in here last week. Not sold on highly touted and hyped Teddy Bridgewater just yet, and not having RB Petersen is killing the Vikes. Add in the fact the Viking best defensive player Greenway is out and you have issues. New head coach Zimmer is making strides but those were early and they were exposed against New England and have struggled since then with any consistency.

The Key here is a proud and tuff defense of the Bills, facing a rookie QB and an offense that managed just 13 points the past 2 weeks combined! Add in the weapons on offense and QB Orton against the Vikes secondary and you have a hard fought 10 point win here for Buffalo. No fireworks show here by any means as both offenses are iffy at best, but Buffalo brings more to the table in this one.

DAVE COKIN

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT DETROIT LIONS
PLAY: DETROIT LIONS -2.5

At some point, one has to just start believing what they’re seeing. That’s the case for me as far as the Detroit Lions are concerned. I’m now convinced that it’s not a mirage, and that the Lions are totally legit on defense. It’s an impressive group, and they’re just plain dominant on that side of the football right now. That cannot bode well for the visiting New Orleans Saints this Sunday.

The Saints are more reputation than reality. You can make the case they’re fortunate to be 2-3, as that win prior to the bye against the Lowly Buccaneers was anything but easy. Maybe things change, but the data complied through the first five games strongly suggests that this is simply not a good New Orleans team. The offense is still productive, but they’re not good at all at virtually everything else. I can’t say there’s no shot the Saints can turn it around, but the indicators for this happening just aren’t there.

The Lions have shortcomings on offense. It’s really starting to look as though QB Matthew Stafford is as good as he’s ever going to be. I think the Lions brass is starting to reach that same conclusion. What we’re starting to see is more game management play calling rather than the wide open Lions attack we’ve gotten used to seeing.

There are certainly other considerations as to why the Lions are getting more conservative on offense. Chiefly, it’s the staunch defense. The Lions are at the point where the offense’s job is to just not lose the game, and if that’s accomplished the defense can do the winning. There have also been some injuries to the offense, and it looks very much like Calvin Johnson will be sitting again this Sunday.

This is really coming down to what I feel is an at least mildly underrated host against what sure looks to be an overrated visitor. My personal rankings have the Lions as the #8 team in the NFL. The Saints have fallen into the 20’s, so I see them as no more than a slightly below average entry at this juncture. Therefore, I see this number being on the cheap side. I don’t think the market has caught up with just how far the Saints have slid. That means that for the time being, this is a team that will be a fade consideration until the general perception changes. I won’t forecast a blowout, as I absolutely can see this being competitive. But laying a field goal or less with the Lions looks attractive to me.

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON -5½ over Tennessee

With all due respect to the Raiders and Jags, Tennessee is by our estimation the worst team in football and it might not be close. The Titans have no defense, their offense can’t move five yards and is getting progressively worse and their two wins came virtue of nothing but pure luck. At home last week against Jacksonville, Tennessee was outgained by 89 yards, they lost the time of possession battle, they allowed over 300 yards in the air and had it not been for a turnover margin of +2 and a blocked FG on the final play, they would have lost again for the fifth straight week. The Titans have been blown out three times and in their last two road games they lost them both by 24 and 26 points respectively. There is nothing that suggests they won’t lose this one by a similar amount.

The Redskins are one tweak away from being a winning team. Turnovers. The Redskins have committed an incredible 31 turnovers in their last 14 games, 13 of which have been losses. They're minus-16 in the turnover differential during this stretch. Both the 31 turnovers and the ratio are the worst in the NFL over that span. Also, in four of their last nine games they've committed at least four turnovers. This is an area that Jay Gruden has to drill into their heads this week. It’s not rocket science. The ‘Skins have the personnel to be competitive and they certainly have the ability to defeat this pathetic visitor by more than a TD. Kirk Cousins can flat out play, as he went off for big yardage several times including a 427-yard game against the Eagles. Washington keeps shooting itself in the foot. They have played Seattle and Arizona the past two weeks and could have won both. The difference between this Titans outfit and Washington at home is more than a touchdown and we wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see it get out of hand. At some point, a team has to get sick of losing because of turnovers and it's not a difficult fix. This is that week.

Kansas City +4 over SAN DIEGO

The Chargers defense has quietly been formidable and the offense continually reinvents itself with new players. The Bolts have won five straight and while that narrow 3-point victory over the Raiders last week lowered their stock somewhat, they are still overvalued. Four of San Diego’s five wins occurred against Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Jets and Oakland. Combined that quartet is 4-20 and Buffalo has three of those wins. There is a price to pay for playing garbage opponents and that price could easily be paid this week. Furthermore, the Chargers have the Broncos on deck Thursday night in a prime time game and could get caught looking ahead to that big showdown.

Then there’s Andy Reid and the Chiefs. K.C. lost its opener to Tennessee and one has to wonder how the hell that happened. In any event, the Chiefs rebounded with a decent effort against Denver but fell short in a 7-point loss. Things got even better in the next two weeks when Kansas City overwhelmed both the Dolphins and Patriots, winning by 19 and 27 points respectively. Finally, two weeks ago, the Chiefs went into San Fran and lost by just five. In summarizing, the Chiefs have played Denver, Miami, New England and San Fran in succession and that difficult schedule should have them well-prepped for this one. The real kicker here is that Andy Reid has won 13 of his last 15 games when his team is coming off a bye. No coach in the NFL history has a better record coming off a bye than Reid. That’s significant and so is the fact that Reid’s offense has only committed nine penalties this entire season. Andy Reid is a well prepared coach that is in a favorable situation this week and that’s more than enough reason for us to step in. Chiefs outright but we’ll gladly take the points.

Miami +3 over CHICAGO

We’re going to wait until Sunday morning to pull the trigger on this one because there is a good chance of us getting another half point. For sure it’s not dropping. We’ll apply our buy-low/sell high theory to this game after the Dolphins blew a lead and dropped that heartbreaker to the Green Bay Packers in the final seconds last week, while the Bears went into Atlanta and defeated perhaps the worse coached team in football. The media will drill into your head (every NFL show you watch or listen to) that the loss that the Fins suffered last week was too emotionally draining for everyone involved to bounce back from but we’re not buying that. Coach Joe Philbin made it a point Tuesday to say this is one of the best practices the team had all season. Players also are beating the drum this week that everything is fine. Miami’s defense was able to get some pressure on Aaron Rodgers and the Dolphins’ defensive line was also terrific against the Packers. This is a Miami team on the rise that resides in perhaps the most underestimated division in the NFL and that is not going to let one play define their season.

The Bears’ three wins came at San Francisco, at Atlanta and at home against the Jets. In that win in San Fran, they were one play away from getting absolutely blown out. Chicago’s three losses occurred against Buffalo, Green Bay and Carolina. Chicago has been on the road in four of the past five weeks. That’s extremely exhausting and it takes a toll. Nobody is going to mistake Jay Cutler for Aaron Rodgers and Miami sacked Rodgers three times last week. Miami probably would have had double that amount if not for Rodgers’ scrambling ability and quick release. This is probably the one unit the Dolphins can count on to take its game on the road and play well at Soldier Field. Miami is legitimately seven or eight deep on the defensive line and they figure to force Cutler into making some bad decisions, as he always does when the heat gets turned up. The Bears have yet to blow out an opponent and while it won’t take a blowout to cover this number, anytime we can take points with a defensive front that should dominate the line of scrimmage, we’re glad to do so and make no exception here.

Wunderdog

Tennessee @ Washington
Pick: Tennessee +6

The Washington Redskins have done a great job against the run this season, but without DeAngelo Hall in the secondary, they have been getting beat badly in the passing game. Right now Jake Locker's status is up in the air, but I think even if it is Charlie Whitehurst, the Washington secondary can still be had. Kirk Cousins appeared to be the man in Washington, getting a lot of love after a good outing in his first game replacement of Robert Griffing III. Many were even speculating that he would keep the starting job when RGIII returns. How quickly things have changed as some are now clamoring for Colt McCoy to get a shot. Washington's only win this season has come vs. what is turning into an automatic win for NFL teams in playing Jacksonville. Washington has been outscored 130-85 in four straight losses, so it is just too much to expect them to cover nearly a TD in this game, especially with Kirk Cousins who right now has lost all his confidence. Washington's 6-19 ATS home mark as a favorite of 4+ points in their last 25 bodes poorly as well, and so does their 5-21-2 ATS mark in their last 28 at home vs. a team with a losing road record. There are just too many points being offered in a game that can be won by either team. So, take the points and play on Tennessee.

LT Profits

Arizona vs Oakland
Pick: Oakland +4

The Oakland Raiders may be 0-5, but they played with a lot of enthusiasm in their first game under new coach Tony Sparano while losing just 31-28 to the red-hot Chargers on an improved covering effort last Sunday. If the Raiders can duplicate that effort, we feel Derek Carr, Andre Holmes and Darren McFadden can again have offensive success here vs. an Arizona Cardinals team that has some key injuries on defense, most notably Calais Campbell, and thus allowed 354 passing yards to Kirk Cousins last week and 4.2 yards per carry when Washington ran the ball. This is also a horrible scheduling spot for the Cardinals as a road favorite vs. a non-conference opponent, and a winless one at that, with bigger conference tests vs. the 5-1 Eagles and 5-1 Cowboys in their next two games! The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings.

Jeff Clement

Minnesota vs. Buffalo
Play: Over 42.5

The Over is 6-1 last 7 Buffalo games in October and the Over is 4-1 last 5 Buffalo home games vs. teams with losing road records. The Over is 5-2 last 7 Vikings games. I expect Teddy Bridgewater to put up big numbers for Minnesota and Buffalo should score against the Vikings horrible defense which allow 23.8 points per game.

AC Dinero

Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins -5.5

Both teams come in with back up QB's, though Redskin QB Kirk Cousins is the more proven player, when he isn't turning it over. That has been the issue for the Redskins this season. They are 1-5, but have been better than that, except for the turnovers. We'll bank they'll protect it better at home this weekend. The 2 teams are similar on defense, and niether has been good on 3rd down. While Tennessee does have an edg ein the running game, Washington has a bigger one in the passing game, as well as in the red zone and kicking game. We'll fade the Titans as they go on the road out of conference

Vegas Butcher

Kansas City Chiefs +4

Andy Reid has an excellent record coming off a BYE as a head coach as he typically gets his players well prepared with 2-weeks off. The same should be expected here. Chiefs have played well lately, covering @ DEN, winning @ MIA, destroying Patriots at home, and then playing a close one @ San Fran. By comparison, San Diego has been beating up on OAK, NYJ, BUF, and JAX since their win against the Seahawks. These teams have been playing much different types of opponents lately and we’ll see if that is a factor on Sunday. Chargers have a game @ Denver on Thursday Night coming up, and though I don’t necessarily seem the overlooking a divisional opponent on Sunday, I do expect the game to be close. Both games last year came down to a FG.

New York Giants +6.5

New York got shut-out last week while Dallas went into Seattle and dominated the world champs. Not surprisingly we get an inflated spread. The advanced lines for this one had Dallas at -3.5, so you can see how much it has risen based on just one week. Let’s also not forget that Dallas should have lost to the Rams earlier this year and played an OT game against a mediocre Houston team at home just a few weeks back. This team is also 6-13 ATS as a favorite. Giants couldn’t protect Eli Manning at all last week, but Cowboys rank 30th in ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate) so things should be easier this time around. In addition, Cowboys sport the 30th ranked runD, and I assume Giants will pound the ball on the ground with Williams to keep Dallas O off the field. Finally, you have to assume this is a big let-down spot for the Cowboys. They lost their RT Free for 3-4 weeks and their LT Smith is banged up, though he will play. A drop in efficiency is expected. I see Giants bouncing back and playing better after an embarrassing divisional loss, and expect a close game here.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5

I’m going to play the “Carson Palmer back in Oakland” angle. He is making his return to the city that took a chance on him when he had a falling out with the Bengals, and typically players want to play well against their former employer. Palmer is familiar with the Raiders and some of their personnel, and that could be an advantage for the Cardinals. Oakland played hard last week but failed to get a win, so I see a bit of let-down here as they’ve failed to record consecutive ATS-covers yet this season. Arizona by a TD.