Rob Vinciletti
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
Play: New Orleans Saints +2
The Saints are rested and ready and have won the last 2 off a bye week. They are getting 3 points here in Detroit. They have won 7 of the last 10 in the series and are 3-0 vs NFC North teams of late. Road teams with a point spread that is within 3 of pick are 30 -8 to the spread after 2 straight games where they forced 1 or no turnovers, vs an opponent that had no turnovers in their last game. The Lions may be without Megatron again in this one and they are 4-19 ats vs a team that allows 27 or more points and have lost the last 3 v NFC South teams. Detroit has also failed to cover 4 of 5 off a division win. Look for the Saints to get the cash here in early action.
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Edges - Falcons: 8-1 ATS dogs 3 or more points in first of BB away games; and 5-1 ATS Game Seven off non-division foe; and 4-1-1 SU and 5-1 ATS all-time against AFC North opponents off a win of 3 or more points. Ravens: 0-5 SUATS off BB SU wins in games before facing the Bengals when facing a non-division opponent. With sub .500 NFL dogs off three consecutive double-digit SUATS losses a rock-solid 26-13-1 ATS if they scored 13 or less points in the last loss, and Baltimore having division tiffs with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh on deck, we recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.
Jim Feist
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders
Pick: Oakland Raiders
Oakland is hungry to end an 11-game skid at home and they face the shaky offense of Arizona. The Cardinals rank 22nd in passing, 30th in rushing, yet are road chalk. The Cardinals are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games in October. Oakland appeared on the verge of posting its first victory of the season last week but surrendered 10 points over the final 5:52 of the fourth quarter - including a 1-yard touchdown run by Branden Oliver with 1:56 remaining - en route to a 31-28 loss to the Chargers. Derek Carr threw a franchise rookie-record four TD passes. Oakland is home and 4-0 ATS the last four meetings with Arizona and will bring a strong effort against a weak Arizona offense, keeping this close.
Jimmy Boyd
Seattle Seahawks -6½
After a shocking 23-30 home loss to the Cowboys, I look for the Seahawks to bounce back in a big way with an easy win over the reeling Rams. Seattle didn’t just lose to Dallas, they were dominated. The only reason the Seahawks were able to make it competitive was a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown and a fumbled snap by the Cowboys that led to a score. Dallas had a 401 to 206 edge in total yards and 23 to 9 advantage in first downs.
Even with that performance, I still believe Seattle is one of the elite teams in the NFC. That loss should serve as a wake-up call for the Seahawks and have them as determined and motivated as we have seen all season when they take the field against St Louis. I'm also not concerned about the recent trade of Percy Harvin. I actually think the loss could be a blessing, as there's a lot of reports about how Harvin wasn't a team player and more of a problem in the lockerroom than a asset on the field.
A focused Seattle squad should have no problem shutting down a Rams offense that completely fell apart last week against the 49ers. After jumping out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, St Louis was outscore 31-3 over the final 45 minutes.
Simply put this is a bad matchup for the Rams offensively. They have struggled to get the ground game going and it’s hard to imagine Austin Davis being able to pick apart the vaunted Seattle secondary. Even after giving up 162 yards on the ground to the Cowboys, the Seahawks still come in ranked 6th in the league against the run (82.2 ypg). Unlike Dallas, St Louis doesn’t have the talent along the offensive line to push around Seattle’s defensive front.
Offensively this is also a good matchup for the Seahawks, as it’s no secret that the strength of their offense is their running game, which comes in 2nd in the league at 149.8 ypg. St Louis is 26th against the run (139.8 ypg) and are giving up 4.6 yards/carry. This another reason why I'm not worried about Seattle having Harvin at their disposal.
Add in this being a difficult spot for the Rams, who laid it all on the line against the 49ers on Monday Night Football and will be working on short rest, all signs point to a relatively easy win for the defending champs.
Seattle is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record.
There’s also a strong system in play, as favorites who are averaging 125 to 150 rushing ypg against an opponent who is giving up 95 to 125 rushing yards/game are 56-27 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Seahawks.
Steve Janus
Falcons/Ravens Over 50
I'm expecting a shootout in Baltimore Sunday between the Ravens and Falcons. Baltimore comes in with the 8th ranked offense in the league (389.8 ypg) and Atlanta has the 3rd ranked offense (410.0 ypg). Defensively the Falcons are not good. They have allowed 98 points over their last 3 games and are giving up 31.7 ppg on the road. The key here is that this is a good matchup for Atlanta's offense. The Ravens are 28th in the league against the pass (270.5 ypg) and have struggled to put pressure on the quarterback and are dealing with a number of injuries along the defensive front. Atlanta should be able to score 24+ to easily push this game over the mark.
System - OVER is 111-56 (67%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg (Ravens) after a game where they allowed 3 points or less in the 1st half.
Stephen Nover
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +6
The winless Jaguars are in the running with the Raiders and Buccaneers for worst team in the NFL. But this is an ideal spot for Jacksonville.
The Browns are off one of their most satisfying victories in a long while - beating Pittsburgh 31-10 this past week at home. Up next for Cleveland is home games against the Raiders and Buccaneers. So this is a real letdown, flat spot for the Browns.
Cleveland has been overachieving on offense and doesn't have the defense to cover a road spread this high without playing well. The Browns' talent level is just marginal. The Browns rank 29th in total defense and 30th against the run. Cleveland also suffered a key injury last week losing star center Alex Mack for the season. That weakens the Browns' offensive line.
The Jaguars are inexperienced offensively, but have a promising quarterback and the team hasn't quit on Gus Bradley. The Steelers' game last week was Cleveland's only matchup of the season that was decided by more than three points.
This is the NFL. Timing means everything. The time is ripe for Jacksonville.
Sam Martin
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
Even though we backed Baltimore last week in their blowout win against the overmatched Tampa Bay Bucs, we don't feel the Ravens are as good as the linesmaker is suggesting here, and we'll take the generous points with a dangerous Atlanta Falcons squad that is due for a solid all-around effort.
Falcons have lost three straight and have struggled on both sides of the ball, but we like their chances of finding success against this overrated Baltimore defense that is especially susceptible against the pass. Ravens have already allowed 275+ passing yards four times, and while Atlanta doesn't run well, they will be able to pass often here without issue. Ravens put up big points against TB last week, but that only pumps up this line on the public perception of that offensive explosion, and Baltimore isn't as good as their numbers last week suggest. Falcons stay close with a chance to win outright!
Scott Spreitzer
Indianapolis -3
We went against the Bengals when they faced New England and cashed an easy winner. It was a very tough spot for Cincinnati. But last week's 37-37 tie was extremely disappointing. Those are the games you really should win, coming off an ugly blowout loss to the Pats. But that's not Cinci's M.O. under HC Marvin Lewis and his 28th ranked defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Bengals are 29th against the run and 22nd defending the pass, allowing 257.4 yards passing per game. Indianapolis, meanwhile, is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run at home against teams that allow at least 235 yards passing per game. Andrew Luck should be in for a decent afternoon. The Colts are on a 17-5 ATS run in their last 22 home games, overall, while the Bengals are on a 2-8-1 ATS slide the week after allowing at least 30 points in a game. They haven't bounced back well. I'm recommending a play on the Colts minus the points on Sunday.
Matt Fargo
NY Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: NY Giants +7
The Giants are coming off their worst game of the season and you know it was bad when they actually had a better game in Detroit in their season opener. New York had won three straight games prior to Sunday night and now sitting at 3-3, this has turned into a very big game. Falling to 3-4 would be a big hit on not only trying to get back into the division but to making the playoffs overall. The Cowboys have now won five straight games after their season opening loss against the 49ers and this last one was by far the most impressive. They defeated the Seahawks by a touchdown but the big factor was that they outgained Seattle by 195 total yards showing it was a dominating victory. Dallas has outgained five of six opponents this season so it certainly deserves to be the favorite at home but this is too much of an overadjustment. Short term results are what bettors mostly pay attention to and that Giants loss coupled with the Dallas win over Seattle is making this line a lot higher than it should be as it is now up to a touchdown in some spots which is ridiculously high for a divisional rivalry game. New York is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 road games against teams with a winning home record while Dallas is 6-26 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite. The Giants fall into a solid contrarian situation as we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) since 1983.
Brad Diamond
NY Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: NY Giants +6½
Obviously, we have two teams going in opposite directions. NY was shutout in front of a national audience, and of course America's team won on the road up in Seattle. With all the injuries, then going on the road, the Giants need to muster enough energy and technique to come up with a SU win. Dallas is 5-10 ATS coming off a road game, while historically struggling in this role as a chalk. With the Giants usually being around an 60% ATS roadie.
Jesse Schule
New Orleans vs. Detroit
Play: Under 47½
With both Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson likely to miss this week's game, those injuries sort of cancel each other out. The Lions though haven't been relying on their offense to win football games, but their defense that ranks #1 against the pass and #2 against the run.
The Saints defense has been well below average all year, and Detroit still has a well balanced attack, even without Megatron. Joique Bell has been a beast in the backfield, and he ran for 74 yards and a TD on 18 carries last week. He'll be splitting snaps with Reggie Bush, who will also pose a threat in the passing game. If the Lions can have success with their running game, this burns more time off the clock, and keeps the ball out of the hands of Drew Brees - good news for under bettors.
The Lions kicking game has been brutal, and that didn't change last week with Matt Prater, as the former Bronco missed 2-of-3 FG attempts. The Saints are a much stronger team at home, and the offense in particular tends to struggle on the road. Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes last year, but only 12 of those came on the road.
Detroit has seen the total go under in each of it's last five games, and I expect another low scoring tilt here Sunday.
Kevin Thomas
Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: St. Louis Rams +7
You traded Percy Harvin to the Jets. Ok his numbers were not eye popping, but he allowed Wilson to option to the run. He helped Lynch get extra yards. Teams had to know where he was at all times. Rams pride themselves on defense like the Seahawks. This game is in St. Louis, Seahawks road woes continue.
Joseph D'Amico
NY Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -6½
Dallas won and covered both meetings last season over New York and roll into this game riding 5 straight victories, going 4-1 ATS. New York yielded 8 sacks last week in a 27-10 loss to Philadelphia and lost WR, Victor Cruz for the season. This leaves a very inexperienced corps of wideouts. Eli Manning will also be without RB, Rashad Jennings which leaves the QB basically on his own. The Dallas defense has stepped up big during their current streak. On offense, the DeMarco Murray show (785 YR and 6 TD's) has allowed Tony Romo to take a good deal of the pressure off his shoulders. The Giants offense is depleted while their "D" is allowing 116.3 YPG to the run and 261.7 YPG in the air. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS their L6 vs. the NFC East while the Giants are 3-7 ATS their L10 vs. teams with a winning record.
Bryan Power
Arizona vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The Raiders were a nice winner for me last Sunday, very nearly upsetting the heavily favored Chargers outright. Taking points for a second straight week at home, I'll back them again here vs. the Arizona Cardinals.
Can somebody please explain the Cardinals to me? A team that has had to cycle through three different QB's in five games, none of them particularly awe-inspiring choices, is somehow 4-1 SU and leading the very tough NFC West. Plus, they have taken a TON of personnel losses on the defensive side of the ball from LY's outstanding group due to injury, suspension or free agency. Cornerback Patrick Peterson hasn't really even played up to par to this point.
That said, give Arizona credit for a well-deserved win over Washington last week. Of course, they didn't really deserve the cover. They have Redskins QB Kirk Cousins to thank for that as he threw a late pick six that put the Cards in the black. Infamously, that was one of two very late pick six's on Sunday that resulted in an ATS win for the favorite (Denver was the other). Sadly, I lost on both games, something I remain fairly bitter about! I was shocked to see QB Carson Palmer attempt 44 passes after reportedly not being able to throw the ball at all for five weeks due to a "dead nerve" in his shoulder. That should be a concern moving forward. Palmer can't really rely on a running game which ranks 30th in the league right now. Arizona was outgained by Washington 407-317 last week. They have not been a road favorite of more than a field goal at any point in the last three seasons.
I thought Oakland was in a good spot last week as a significant home dog coming off a bye and coaching change. QB Derek Carr played by far his best game yet and actually has 11 TD passes so far. That's a very good number for a rookie through five games and by having four in one game (last week) he joined a pretty exclusive list of signal callers. He had six third down completions vs. the Chargers, three of them going for TD's. At the end of the day though, the Raiders are still winless. But because of that, I expect another solid effort for interim HC Tony Sparano.
Harry Bondi
Cleveland / Jacksonville Over 45
Great set up here for a high-scoring game. Statistically, the Browns have one of the top offenses in the league, going over the total in four out of five games with an average of 50 points being scored in each game. Away from home, the points have been even more aplenty, with both Cleveland road games going over the total by a combined 30 points to the spread. The Jags have also gone 4-2 to the over this year and both teams rank in the bottom five of the AFC in pass defense. Look for the offenses to lean heavily on the passing attack today and watch this game fly over the total.