Nelly
Green Bay Packers - over Carolina Panthers
It is not any great insight but playing an extra quarter of football in the previous game is taxing and teams off a five quarter tie have performed poorly, going 11-21 S/U since 1980 including 5-11 S/U and 6-10 ATS since 1988. Since 1989 teams on the road after a tie are 0-5 S/U and ATS. Green Bay did not deserve to win last week but with Aaron Rodgers the team is able to make up for some shortcomings. Going against a Panthers defense that is allowing 6.3 yards per play this season should be a great matchup especially after facing an elite Miami defense in the heat last week and still scoring 27 points. Carolina has had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season allowing 5.5 yards per rush as the Packers and Eddie Lacy should be lined up for a good game on offense with better balance than in recent weeks. Green Bay has been pretty respectable defensively this season, allowing just 5.4 yards per play and the Packers are more vulnerable against the run. Carolina is one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL posting just 87 yards per game with injuries crippling the running game and Cam Newton playing more as a true drop-back passer this season. The Packers have only played two home games this season, winning both games with a seven-point win over the Jets and a 32-point win over the Vikings. The Packers are 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 games as a home favorite and while Carolina has been a tough underdog in recent years this looks like a tough spot and matchup in a second straight road game off an exhausting game with Cincinnati. The Green Bay secondary did have some injuries last week but the Packers would be happy to play in a shootout in this matchup.
EZWINNERS
Miami Dolphins +3
These two teams had very different results last week. Miami lost at home in the final seconds against the Packers while the Bears pulled off the road upset at Atlanta. It can be argued that Chicago is a much better team on the road than at home and at least for gamblers that has been the case as the Bears are just 1-10-1 against the spread in their last twelve home games. Chicago is beat up physically as they finished last weeks win with their top four linebackers all hurt. Miami is getting healthier and will try to pound the ball and control the clock against the beat up Chicago defense. The Dolphins are 12-3-1 against the spread as an underdog of five points or less. Take the points.
Carolina Panthers +7
The Packers offense is starting to improve, but I don't believe they should be laying seven points against many teams at this point in the season. Aaron Rodgers has the passing game going, but the run game is not what is was last season. The Green Bay defense is last in the league against the run and their two starting cornerbacks are both beat up. Carolina's quarterback Cam Newton looked as good as he has all year in last week's tie at Cincinnati. Newton combined for 391 passing and rushing yards against the Bengals and Green Bay doesn't have the defense to contain him in this match up. Rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin should play and he will be a nightmare matchup for Green Bay's backup corners. Take the points.
New York Giants +6.5
The Cowboys are coming off of a huge win last week in Seattle while the Giants were crushed last Sunday night by the Eagles. Welcome to the NFL where things change drastically from week to week. The Cowboys have been a great play recently as an underdog, but they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as a home favorite. The Cowboy's defense is playing over their heads in my opinion as they were projected to be very bad this season. The Giants offense had been clicking up until last weeks disaster. I look for both of those units to get back closer to their norm in this game. New York has played well in Dallas winning four out of the last five meetings straight up. Take the points.
Freddy Wills
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +4
This is almost a play on Andy Reid who is one of the best coaches in the league. The Chiefs have just 9 penalties all year and Reid has won 13 of his 15 games coming off a bye. The Chiefs have just had a much more challenging schedule facing the Broncos, Dolphins, Patriots and 49ers all in a row. Compare that with the Chargers schedule as 4 of their 5 wins have come against the Bills, Jaguars, Jets and Raiders. The Chiefs have played well on the road and their defensive line could give the Chargers issues and we all know Phillip Rivers is not the same when he's under pressure and the Chiefs boast some a very good pass rushing tandem. I would not be surprised if they got after Rivers and made him look human here today.
MTi Sports
NY Giants +6.5
The Cowboys have been better than everyone expected this season - even us - and Dallas over 7.5 wins +165 on the season was our 2014 NFL Futures Play of the Year. Dallas is a great as a dog, but they have trouble as a favorite – especially after a win.
The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-8.35 ppg) as a favorite versus any team with fewer wins after a win.
This season the Giants have averaged 31.0 rushes per game and the Cowboys are also not a good investment as home chalk vs a team that likes to run the ball. Specifically, Dallas is 0-14 ATS since 2010 as a home favorite vs a team that has averaged more than 27.5 rushing attempts per game.
The Giants were absolutely horrible last Sunday Night, getting shutout by the Eagles 27-0. The loss dropped them to 500 on the season. The Giants are by far the best performing team in the league on the road when they are 500. NY is 8-0 ATS in this spot, covering by an average of a whopping 16.8 ppg. In their last five on the road with a record of 500 they are 5-0 SU, winning by an average of 16.8 ppg and covering by an average of 20.7 ppg and they were the dog every time.
Finally, the Giants committed an uncharacteristic ten penalties vs the Eagles and they are 6-0 ATS the week after a game in which they committed at least three more penalties than their season-to-date average, covering by nearly two TD’s per game.
We look for a close, divisional battle. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: DALLAS 20 NY Giants 17
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Detroit/New Orleans Under 47: The Saints may come out and throw the ball around, but it looks as if that is not their game plan. The Saints are missing their top WR here in Jimmy Graham and Sean Payton has stated that he plans to run the ball a bunch with Ingram. That will keep the clock moving for sure. on the other side of the field the Detroit Lions will look to play conservative just as they have really been forced to with Megatron out and a banged up RB Corps. Detroit has not mined playing that way of late, especially knowing the they have the top ranked defense behind them, which is allowing just 270.7 ypg and 13.7 ppg on the year so far. This game will be all about defense and running the ball and it should end up being played in the upper 30s at best.
BEST OF THE REST
Buffalo/Minnesota Under 43: Minnesota’s offense looked good in the first game with Bridgewater at the helm, but that was vs a bad Atlanta Defense and in the last two games they have scored just 13 total points. Now they will take on a Buffalo defense that is very tough this year and will pressure the young QB all day and not having a ground attack will really hurt this offense as well. The Viking defense has been solid, as far as ypg allowed are concerned and this Buffalo offense is not an explosive on, as they come in averaging just 19.7 ppg on the year. This should be a game played in the mid-30s at best.
INDIANAPOLIS -3 over Cincinnati: The Bengals are a beat up group and their defense has really struggles of late, allowing 80 points in their last 2 games and now they will be taking on a Colts offense that is tops in the league in total yards, passing and scoring. The Colt defense has surprised this year after a rough start and in middle of the pack in most categories, while allowing just 21 ppg in their last 4 games. The Bengals are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 30 or more points, while the Colts are a very solid 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games at home. The Bengals just won’t have the offense to keep up with Colts in this one, especially at Lucas Oil Stadium, as I look for a rather easy win by Indianapolis in this one.
Tony Karpinski
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions -1½
New Orleans has some issues with their all pro TE TD machine, Jimmy Graham. As it appears the injury is serious enough to impact his play. Although improved on defense, they are still an offensive minded team, first and foremost. And they are still looking for the winning combination after a slow start to season. Detroit comes in with a very real and very legit defense, with Ezekiel Ansah and Ndamukong Suh. Also the Lions' Reggie Bush will return to play vs his old team, which will always be fun to see play out. WR Golden Tate could end up seeing some red-zone work as he continues to develop into their main man with Megatron likely out. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. Detroit gets the victory here at home!
Will Rogers
Seattle vs. St. Louis
Play: Over 43
There's been some shocking news out of Seattle the last seven days. Not only did the Seahawks lose to Dallas at home last Sunday, they announced that they traded (basically gave away) Percy Harvin to the Jets. The Hawks will be desperate to get back on track on the road at St. Louis this week, and with under bettors driving down the total, I see value in playing the over.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Russell Wilson - He did not have a good game against the Cowboys, but Wilson still sports impressive numbers this season. He's completed 66% of his passes for just shy of 1000 yards, 8 TDs and only two picks. He beat the Rams twice last year, throwing for three touchdowns and no picks in those games.
2. Seattle Defense - The best defense in the NFL? Not this year so far. The Seahawks have actually been below average against the pass, allowing opponents to average over 250 yards per game in the air.
3. X-Factor - The Rams have trended toward high scoring games at home, with the over going 11-5 in their last 16.
Carolina Sports
Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills -6
The Bills are almost in a must-win situation in this game. Plus, they have not played well at home and really want to show the crowd something in this one. The Vikings are struggling on offense and really have no identity. Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Bills get a much deserved big win today.
Randall the Handle
BEST BETS
Dolphins (2-3) at Bears (3-3)
Yes, it’s important to be a gracious host, but the Bears are taking it a step too far. Chicago has yet to win on this field in two tries this season while owning an excellent 3-1 mark away from here. For whatever reason, Jay Cutler’s Jekyll and Hyde act has been in fine form as the much-maligned quarterback has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions with an 84.7 passer rating here compared to nine TDs and two picks with a passer rating of 104.6 on foreign turf. The Bears lost on opening week here to the Bills and then were clobbered 38-17 by the visiting Packers. Those were the same Packers that were very fortunate to scratch out a win over these Dolphins last week. Chicago is hurting, particularly in the linebacker department, where four starters are presently out of the lineup. Sure, the Bears kept Atlanta’s run game in check, but that’s largely because of the Falcons’ porous offensive line. Things won’t be as simple against a good Miami running attack. The Dolphins flourish in this role, covering 12 of past 15 when taking five points or less. Another Chicago crowd could go home unhappy. TAKING: DOLPHINS +3½
Falcons (2-3) at Ravens (4-2)
Overreaction: To react or respond more strongly than is necessary or appropriate. It appears we have it here. Prior to the season starting, one sports gaming company releases lines for the entire season. Granted, things occur throughout the year that significantly change these speculative pointspreads. However, it can also be used as a tool for measuring overreactions. For the Week 7 slate, Baltimore was listed as a 3-point pick over these Falcons. Now we’re looking at a full touchdown. Is Atlanta much different than what we thought they’d be? It won four games last year and did little to improve its roster. The Ravens are pretty much where they were expected to be, sitting second behind Cincinnati in a moderate AFC North division. But fresh off a 48-17 spanking of the Bucs, folks are eager to get behind the blackbirds. Speaking of Cincinnati, Baltimore lost its home opener to the Bengals and will get a chance to avenge that defeat next week at Cincy, presenting a classic look-ahead scenario. This a text-book sell-high, buy-low opportunity that we’ll invest in. TAKING: FALCONS +7
Cardinals (4-1) at Raiders (0-5)
If we were to sit here and recite the woes of the Raiders, we’d be here until Monday. Instead, let’s look at what they have going for them in this one. Better to be positive, right? Sometimes a new coach provides a shot in the arm and, after a solid effort by Oakland in a narrow loss to the high-flying Chargers last week, perhaps Tony Sparano’s two weeks of preparation may have provided such a boost. QB Derek Carr had his best day as a pro, tossing for 282 yards and four touchdowns. Carr can pick up on that performance as the Cardinals, despite their successful 4-1 start, are giving up 304 passing yards per game, the most in the NFL. The past two weeks, when Arizona’s myriad injuries were compounded even more, these Cards gave up in excess of 800 yards through the air. The Raiders gave the Patriots and the Chargers a run for their money. With the passing game clicking, playing consecutive home games and a fresh environment, there’s no reason that Oakland doesn’t hang tough here. TAKING: RAIDERS +3½
THE REST
Bengals (3-1-1) at Colts (4-2)
While we don’t want to penalize the Colts for winning, we can’t get too amped up when three of their four wins have come against their woeful AFC South division mates. The Titans and Jaguars are a combined 2-10, and one of the Titans’ wins was against Jacksonville. The Bengals appear to be out of everyone’s favour suddenly, but three weeks ago, folks were mapping out the parade after Cincy’s 3-0 start. A loss at the Patriots and a home tie last week has clamped the brakes on that talk. But the Bengals scored 37 without A.J. Green and they can do the same here to a team that gave up 61 combined points to the Broncos and Eagles TAKING: BENGALS +3
Titans (2-4) at Redskins (1-5)
After endorsing the Titans more often than we’d like to admit and after witnessing them go five straight without a cover, we weren’t going to do it. We don’t want to do it. We can’t do it. Guess what? We’re doing it. It’s not that we are fond of Tennessee, a team that has the appeal of onion breath. It’s just that it’s not smart business to be spotting a handful of points with a 1-5 Redskins team. Nor is it wise to be giving away points with a Washington team that has allowed 166 points, fourth-most in the league. Titans QB Jake Locker could be back and that would also aid our cause. TAKING: TITANS +5½
Browns (3-2) at Jaguars (0-6)
Players and fans alike were euphoric after Cleveland took down arch nemesis the Steelers last week. That jubilation may have the Browns slightly unprepared for a road game against a doormat team. Cleveland has definitely improved, led mainly by a strong offensive line that has allowed Brian Hoyer to guide his squad while creating opportunities for its unknown lot of runners. But this is a different animal. The Brownies have not been favoured on the road by three or more since November 2008. Four of their five games have been within three points. Jaguars QB Blake Bortles is getting a feel for the bigs now after a decent showing last week. We’ll look for a close one. TAKING: JAGUARS +6
Seahawks (3-2) at Rams (1-4)
With two losses already and players squawking at one another, things aren’t as rosy as they were a year ago in Seattle. A visit with the Rams can fix things in a hurry, but giving a converted touchdown in a divisional road game has sent many a fine man to the poorhouse. While teams generally get up to play the Super Bowl champs, this inferior St. Louis team has traditionally given the Seahawks all they can handle, splitting the past four games here 2-2. Seattle won 14-9 at St. Louis last year, but needed to stop the Rams twice at the 1-yard line on the final two plays of the game. TAKING: RAMS +7
Panthers (3-2-1) at Packers (4-2)
After overcoming a huge deficit to defeat the Bears two weeks ago, the Panthers then had to play five hard quarters to earn a 37-27 tie in Cincinnati last week. This will be Carolina’s third road game in four weeks and, as if this schedule hasn’t been taxing enough, the Panthers return home next week to face the champion Seahawks. The Packers are in a favourable spot after a fortunate win in Miami and are now returning to Lambeau to host this tired foe. Green Bay has had difficulty stopping the run, but that’s not a concernhere with Carolina’s 28th-ranked rushers averaging a mere 86 yards per game. TAKING: PACKERS –7
Vikings (2-4) at Bills (3-3)
We prefer the Bills when they are at home taking some points or giving away very few. Spotting a touchdown is not what they are about and considering that Buffalo’s offence has only reached 20 points once in its past four games, we’d rather accept this gratuitous offering. Even though QB Kyle Orton may offer more stability than the replaced EJ Manuel, Orton still only has nine wins in his past 33 starts. Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater had a tough go versus Detroit last week, but that followed his other start in which he was dynamic. The Vikings are surprisingly good on turf where they have failed to cover just once in their past 11 on the stuff. TAKING: VIKINGS +6
Saints (3-2) at Lions (4-1)
Who do you trust the least? The struggling Saints who aren’t the same with Darren Sproles playing for Philadelphia and Jimmy Graham on the limp or the Lions minus the league’s best weapon in WR Calvin Johnson? Given the choice, we prefer visiting New Orleans. as it has had a week off to prep for this one and still has the ability to score points, while Detroit has shown time and time again that it simply can’t get to 20 without Megatron in the lineup. We expect DC Rob Ryan to dial up some blitzes as the Leos have not protected Matthew Stafford well, having been sacked 21 times already this season. TAKING: SAINTS +3
Chiefs (2-3) at Chargers (5-1)
There’s no questioning the Chargers are a quality club. However, that doesn’t scare Andy Reid and his rested Chiefs. Playing above-average teams seems to bring out the best in Kansas City as a quick review of its schedule will confirm. KC has been an underdog in four of five starts and has managed three covers and a push. The Chiefs were against the spread winners in Denver. They thumped both New England and Miami on consecutive weeks and then pushed a toughie in San Francisco. Coach Reid preps his team for road games as well, having covered 10 of its past 11 away from Arrowhead. TAKING: CHIEFS +4
Giants (3-3) at Cowboys (5-1)
There hasn’t been this much love for Dallas since the TV drama series aired. Does that spell trouble? The Giants and Cowboys have traditionally played very close games, no matter what their records. In fact, the G-Men have won four of their past five here. It can also be dangerous to your pocketbook to get too high on the Cowboys, failing to cover in four straight as home chalk. In a league that is as fickle as the weather, it can also be risky to rely on a Dallas team coming off its biggest win in years, while being equally perilous to discount the Giants after a humiliating 27-0 clocking by the Eagles. TAKING: GIANTS +6½
49ers (4-2) at Broncos (4-1)
Not liking what we’re seeing out of the San Francisco offence these days. The Niners can’t seem to put their foot on the throat of their opponents when they have them down and that won’t work here in Mile High. Even more problematic is the long list of injuries on the 49ers defence. Already depleted, San Fran will now be without one of its leaders and most talented players as LB Patrick Willis (toe) is expected to miss a few games. With Denver’s offensive line becoming more cohesive with each game and Peyton Manning’s arsenal of pass catchers, this one could get away in a hurry. TAKING: BRONCOS –6½
Texans (3-3) at Steelers (3-3)
The Steelers are in prime time for the nine millionth time. But unlike the past, Pittsburgh does not draw as much public money as it used to. That could work to our advantage here as the price feels a bit short. We’re not anxious to get behind a Houston team whose wins have come against squads that are a combined 4-13 on the season. Pittsburgh returns home after playing four of five away and this will be the first of three consecutive home dates, with the Texans being the softest of the trio of visitors (Indy and Baltimore). Look for the Steelers to get after turnover-prone QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, leading their way to a win. TAKING: STEELERS –3
Mike O'Connor
NY Jets (+9.5) 16 NEW ENGLAND 24
The Jets have played the Patriots tough recently covering three of the last four including both games in 2013. They’ll face a difficult task on a short week heading up to New England for the Thursday night match-up against a Patriots team that has gotten hot recently, winning their last two. A Jets ground attack that averages 122 yards at 4.6 ypr should be able to run effectively against a New England defense that allows 112 yards at 4.4 ypr. Meanwhile, the New England running game took a hit this week, losing RB Stevan Ridley and still dealing with a banged up offensive line. New York should be able to shut down the Patriots run game but the passing match-up is a concern on both sides of the ball for the Jets. Tom Brady is still one of the top quarterbacks in the game and will be facing a Jets secondary that is suspect, but has played better than expected so far this season. There is some rain in the forecast that may cause some sloppy conditions and for a quarterback that has ball security issues like Geno Smith, I expect some turnovers from him in this game. In fact, Geno is my highest rated quarterback when it comes to projected turnovers with a -4.43 point value while Tom Brady is one of the best in the game protecting the ball and projects at just -1.91.
The Jets qualify in a 279-175-14 statistical match-up situation as well as a 494-404-15 turnover based situation. With the Jets tied for last in turnover differential at -9 and the Patriots tied for first at +9, its tough to trust a sloppy team in difficult weather conditions on the road. My model favors the Patriots by about 10 points in this one so I’m going to pass but lean to the Jets to cover the large number.
Seattle (-6.5) 29 ST. LOUIS 17
Seattle should be focused off of their 23-30 home loss last week against the Cowboys where they were beaten soundly in every phase of the game. They were outgained 206 yards at 4.3 yppl to 402 yards at 5.8 yppl for the Cowboys and were actually +1 in turnovers but they played uninspired football and were caught flat. I don’t expect that for a second consecutive week with a young and emotional team as they find themselves in third place in the NFC West and face division rival St. Louis this week. Meanwhile, the Rams took an early 14-0 lead on Monday night at home against the 49ers before San Francisco outscored them the rest of the way 3-31. After staring out hot, Rams quarterback Austin Davis cooled off when faced with pressure, getting sacked five times and throwing a pick six late in the game.
The Seahawks are the far better team in this game and have match-up advantages across the board. Seattle boasts an excellent rush defense that allows 84 yards at 3.3 ypr to teams that gain 109 yards at 4.0 ypr and if the Rams can’t run in this game they will have serious trouble scoring. I don’t trust Davis against the Seattle secondary that could force some mistakes from a young quarterback who was the Rams 4th stringer early in camp. Seattle qualifies in a few statistical match-up situations that are 665-497-40, 279-175-14 and 217-105-14 while my model favors Seattle by 8.2 points in this game. With the superior, motivated team along with good situations and line value, I like Seattle but will resist making them a Best Bet. The Percy Harvin trade to the Jets on Friday afternoon will likely shake up the Seahawks a bit and the Rams will be prepared to take advantage. In addition, the Seahawks are a bit banged up and the Rams have played Seattle well recently. Since Jeff Fisher took over as Rams coach they have played three of their four games within 7 points. With the turmoil in Seattle, I’ll pass but lean to the Seahawks.
Atlanta (+6.5) 26 BALTIMORE 29
After starting the season strong in beating New Orleans at home, the Falcons have only beaten the Bucs on a short week Thursday night game at home since, and last week lost 13-27 to the Bears in Atlanta where they have played well. They’ll look to get back on track against a Ravens team that beat up on the Bucs last week as Joe Flacco tossed 5 touchdown passes in just over a quarter. This appears to be a case of buy low and sell high as the Ravens come off of a 31 point win while the Falcons have lost their last three by an average score of 20-33. One thing Atlanta can do well is pass the ball and they have a good match-up against a Baltimore pass defense that has been the Ravens weak link this season. I expect the Falcons to be focused on this game while the Ravens may be caught looking ahead to a big divisional match-up with the Bengals next week. Atlanta qualifies in a 43-14-4 situation and in what figures to be a high scoring game, I’ll lean to Atlanta to keep this one close.
GREEN BAY (-6.5) 32 Carolina 20
Carolina leads the NFC South with a 3-2-1 record after their 37-37 tie last week in Cincinnati in a game where they were outgained for the second consecutive week and escaped without getting the loss. They won’t be as fortunate this week as Carolina travels to Green Bay to take on the surging Packers who have played well in winning their last three after a 1-2 start. The Packers have outplayed their stats so far this season offensively and face a Panthers defense that is not close to the one that they fielded last season. Carolina is allowing 393 yards at 6.1 yppl and feature a run defense that has allowed 5.7 ypr to teams that average 4.5 ypr. If Green Bay can run, things will set up even better for their excellent passing attack which will exploit an average Carolina secondary.
On the other side, Cam Newton has played well and unleashed some of the read-option last week that made him such a dynamic threat the past several years. As it turns out, Green Bay faced quite a bit of read-option last week against the Dolphins and handled it fairly well. According to ESPN Stats and Information Miami gained just 86 yards on their 18 read-option plays with 40 of those yards coming on 1 Ryan Tannehill run. The Packers have been working on it in practice this week facing a better athlete in Newton and have made it a focus of their defensive efforts. Otherwise, the Panthers have not had much of a running game this season, averaging just 87 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 107 yards at 4.2 ypr and may not be able to take advantage of the Packers weakness defending the run.
Green Bay qualifies in a 99-55-4 statistical match-up situation and my model favors them by about 9 points. I don’t see the Panthers being able to keep up with a Green Bay offense that is just starting to hit their stride. I like the Packers.
New Orleans (+2.5) 22 DETROIT 21
The Saints have had two weeks to prepare to face off against a Lions team that has a different feel this season under the leadership of a new coaching staff. Part of that new coaching staff includes former Saints offensive assistant (2007-2008) and quarterbacks coach (2009-2013) Joe Lombardi who worked closely with Drew Brees and the entire Saints offensive staff in his years there. Lombardi is now the offensive coordinator for a Lions team that has had their struggles this season so far, currently ranked 14th in total offense and 27th in scoring at 19.7 points per game. They have played below expectations, particularly in the run game where they are averaging just 88 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 115 yards at 4.4 ypr. Their pass offense has been hampered by injuries along their offensive line and to WR Calvin Johnson who for the most part has been limited when he has played. Their defense has carried them thus far and will be put to the test this week by a Saints offense that should play well having had the extra time to prepare coming off the bye.
The Saints offense has once again been very good this season but their defense has been the issue, particularly their pass defense. Fortunately for them it looks like Calvin Johnson will miss this game and without him the Lions offense has sputtered. Last week Detroit could only generate 155 passing yards at 4.2 yps at home against a Vikings defense that is improving but is still middle of the pack. Part of the problem has been protection for Matthew Stafford as the Lions have allowed 3.5 sacks per game against teams that generate 2.4 on average. Although the Saints have not been good at pressuring the quarterback so far this season, I expect Rob Ryan to attack that vulnerability in protection this week.
The Saints qualify in a good 158-90-10 situation that plays on teams playing below expectations as well as a 100-40-4 statistical match-up situation. However, my model favors the Lions by -6.3 points and with the Saints well documented road woes combined with the fact that Detroit has the #1 defense in the NFL and the #1 defense against quarterbacks, holding them to a 33.8 QBR, it’s a pass for me with a lean to the Saints.
Miami (+3) 23 CHICAGO 24
The Dolphins played Green Bay tough last week but ended up losing on a late Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass to drop to 2-3 on the season. They’ll travel to Chicago to take on the Bears after their 27-13 upset win in Atlanta last week. Miami has a good match-up here and should run the ball well with the NFL’s #6 ranked rushing offense facing a Bears defense that, while playing better this season, have still given up 4.5 ypr to teams that gain 4.2 ypr. Defensively, the Dolphins defense should be able to pressure Jay Cutler with a strong defensive line and could force some mistakes. Miami has played good run defense so far this season and face a Bears team that has not played well at home in the Trestman era so far, going just 3-7 SU and ATS. Miami benefits from a negative 110-196-8 situation that plays against the Bears but my model favors Chicago by 4 points. I’ll pass but lean to the Dolphins plus the points.
Tennessee (+5.5) 22 WASHINGTON 26
It looks like quarterback Charlie Whitehurst will make the start for the Titans this week (although it really doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback for Tennessee as they are both mediocre) against a Redskins defense that started the season hot but have cooled off recently. In their first two games, Washington only allowed 13.5 points per game but in their last four have given up 34.8. Washington had a great game against the Jaguars in Week 2 when everything went their way in a 41-10 win but otherwise have not been a good team. Quarterback Kirk Cousins started out strong in that game but since that time has thrown for just 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, including 7 in the last three weeks. He remains a turnover risk but the Redskins have plenty of weapons on offense and a defense that is talented enough to contain a less than stellar Titans attack. Tennessee qualifies in a good 158-90-10 situation but my model favors the Redskins by 6.9 points so I’m going to pass with a slight lean based on the strong situation to the Titans plus the points.
Kansas City (+4) 24 SAN DIEGO 25
Andy Reid is 13-2 coming off the bye in his career and should have the Chiefs prepared to play well in this game. They’ll face one of the better teams in the league in the 5-1 Chargers who after beating the Seahawks in Week 2, have faced a soft schedule of opponents in the Jaguars, Jets and Raiders. While it would be hard to look past the Chiefs here, San Diego does have a primetime Thursday night contest to look forward to next week for the division lead in Denver and may not bring their A game, while the Chiefs most certainly will. Since the Week 1 aberration against the Titans, Kansas City has played well, beating the Dolphins and Patriots and losing close games at the Broncos and the 49ers. Reid is a smart coach and has effectively molded the Chiefs identity to fit their strengths over the first few weeks and I expect that they’ll come out of the gate firing in San Diego this weekend.
Kanas City has played well offensively, limiting mistakes and relying on their strong run game and short passing attack to move the chains. They’ll face a San Diego team that has played pretty well defensively against mainly poor offenses and I project that the Chiefs will be able to move the ball well in this game. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but the Chargers have had great fumble luck so far this season, not losing any of their 6 fumbles while opponents have lost 5 of their 8 overall. That rate won’t continue and has contributed to their success in a way that is not sustainable so they are a bit overvalued. This is a good spot for the Chiefs and with the success Andy Reid has had coming off the bye, I like Kansas City to cover.
DALLAS (-6.5) 29 NY Giants 21
The Giants are in a good spot in this game having been shut out last week in an embarrassing 0-27 loss to the Eagles while the Cowboys might be feeling a little too good about themselves after beating the Seahawks in Seattle last week as big underdogs. Dallas really took it to Seattle last week and the final score is not indicative of the difference in play as the Cowboys could have won by a lot more but suffered from some special teams mistakes that keep Seattle in the game. The Cowboys strong run game should be able to move the ball against a below average New York run defense and with some question marks in the Giants secondary, Dallas should feature a balanced attack that moves the ball in the air equally as well. Meanwhile, the Giants offense has been below average so far this season and will miss Victor Cruz in their passing attack after he suffered a patellar tendon injury and is out for the year. Without their top RB Rashad Jennings to boot, the Giants are faced with some limitations offensively. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my model is strong on the Cowboys (-11.8). I expect the Giants to come out and play inspired football but Dallas is the better team and should cover here.
Bob Balfe
Saints +2.5
Calvin Johnson should miss again today and Reggie Bush has been hampered with injury. There is no mistake about it that we can clearly see Detroit just is not the same team when Johnson is hurt. New Orleans has not been a good road team, but they are playing in perfect conditions and I just feel they have too much offense to lose this game. Detroit can’t run the football and their passing game is now predictable. Look for a desperate Drew Brees to get a big road win for his team today.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton -4 over SASKATCHEWAN
We’re not going to go into an entire analysis of this game because it’s not necessary. Although this game goes on Sunday, we wanted to post this game on Friday because we have early information that Kerry Joseph will start for the Roughriders. That’s not privileged information and it’ll be public very soon if it’s not already but by Sunday, we can see this line moving up at least or point or two. The Riders have spun completely out of control since they lost Darian Durant to an injury. Saskatchewan has been outgained by 151 yards, 205 yards, 249 yards and 137 yards in four of its past six games. They were even outgained by Ottawa by 60 yards in one of the other games over that span. Kerry Joseph retired at the end of last year after appearing in one game for the Eskimos. Saskatchewan pleaded with him to come out of retirement because the two QB’s that they have employed after Durant look like they should be playing for the Western Mustangs. Joseph is not an upgrade. Yeah, he has experience but he’s been on the rack for almost two years, he’s 41 years old and how embarrassing would it be for the Eskies to allow him to come in and here and have a good game?
Edmonton barely broke a sweat last week in their 41-9 victory over Winnipeg. That was against Winnipeg’s backup QB and the Eskies get an even bigger break this week. Here’s the best part though. Saskatchewan is one game ahead of Edmonton in the West for second place. First place gets a bye (Calgary) and second place will play third place in the first round of the playoffs with second place getting home-field advantage. That is huge in the CFL and now this becomes the biggest game of the season for both teams because the winner will all but cement home-field. Motivation is not an issue for the Eskies and if they don’t win this one going away against a 41-year QB that has been twiddling his thumbs for two years, you can color us surprised.
Ken Thomson
Chicago -3
I'll take a shot at Da Bears at minus 3 at home coming off solid second half effort in Atlanta. Cutler was solid and under control while Forte looked like a RB with purpose ( 80 yds rush/ 77 rec yds ). The Bears Defense was stingy as well with four sacks and holding the Falcons to 287 Total yards including just 42 yards on the ground. Marshall & Jeffery used their height advantage to both go over 100 yards receiving. I expect Chicago to be able to mix things up against the Dolphins Defense that floundered down the stretch in a heart breaking loss to the Packers. Give me Da Bears 27-20
Dave Price
Buffalo Bills -5.5
The Vikings couldn't get anything done offensively in last week's 17-3 home loss to Detroit. They had only 212 yards of offense for the game. Expect Minnesota's offensive shortcomings to haunt them once again in Buffalo. The Bills rank first against the run, eighth in scoring defense and 11th in total defense. They are also among the league leaders in sacks with 19. The Bills were kicked at home by division rival New England last week, and I expect them to be highly motivated here as a result. They are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons in home games following a loss, winning by an average score of 26.3 to 18.3 in this spot. While Minnesota has performed well defensively, it has been susceptible to the run, and I believe Buffalo will take advantage. The Bills should be able to establish the run game, which will set up some big play opportunities in the play-action passing game. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game.
Jeff Alexander
Jacksonville Jaguars +5
The Jaguars are being undervalued because they are 0-6. Cleveland is 3-2 but two of its wins have come by three points combined. Four of its games have been decided by three points or less so I can't justify laying five points with the Browns on the road. Jacksonville defeated Cleveland 32-28 on the road last season and will draw confidence from that victory. The Browns are one of those teams that seem to play up or down to the level of their competition. They are 0-6 ATS the last two seasons versus poor defensive teams that give up 24.0 ppg or more, losing to these teams by an average of 9.2 points. Additionally, underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have been held to 14 points or less in two straight games are 31-10 ATS the last five seasons, including 19-4 ATS the last three seasons.