River City Sharps
NY Giants +6.5
We are going to go ahead and release this one now, but we must admit that we are a bit confused as to how this line is going to move as we get closer to kickoff. The New York Giants travel to Dallas on Sunday to take on the red hot Cowboys, who once again appear to be America’s Team! The Giants looked absolutely terrible in last week’s 27-0 loss to Philly, while the Cowboys were stunning the Seahawks 30-27 in Seattle. As our long term clients know, this is a “green light” situation for the Sharps, classic “buy when they are selling” on the G-Men here in this spot. The Giants aren’t nearly as bad as they looked last week, while the Cowboys aren’t as good as everyone thinks they are. Tom Coughlin teams have been very good with their backs to the wall, especially away from home. Consider that since 1992, the Giants are an impressive 49-29 ATS in road games off a division game. They are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. This appears to be a classic letdown spot for the Cowboys and they are just 2-5 in their last seven home games. The loss of Victor Cruz for the Giants means you will probably see Beckham and Randle on the field at the same time, opening up additional big play possibilities for the Giants. Here’s the deal…we are releasing the game at Giants +6.5 and as a 3 Unit selection. We’re not sure if this line will move to 6 or 7, but at 7, we would probably bump this up to a 4 Unit Diamond play. You are certainly welcome to buy the hook, but we are going to settle with a solid selection with the Giants here.
Brady Kannon
San Francisco +7
Both of these teams are beginning to round into midseason form and I am not necessarily calling for it, but you do have a potential SuperBowl Preview here under the Sunday Night Lights. The 49'ers are still shaky at quarterback, I feel, but this seems to be a product of what has become a formula now, that in the regular season, we force Kaepernick to throw because we cannot afford injury, and when we get to the post season, we'll turn him loose on the ground. He's young and his ability to lead this team with a confidence like Young or Montana has only shown up in flashes so far. Kaepernick must mature and become sharper to truly lead this team wholeheartedly. On the other side, we see that while Colin Kaepernick is young, Payton Manning is getting old. The ball does not have the same zip it did - but by a long shot, he is still Payton Manning.
These teams are very close on the numbers too. Top five defenses against the run, top ten defenses against the pass. This past summer, the opening line was Denver -3, which basically indicated equality and Denver laying the 3 because of home field advantage. I made the game about 5.5 on Monday and here we are getting 7. San Francisco does not look SuperBowl bound to me yet - in fact I have them as the 4th-5th ish best team in the NFL but The Niners always show up in prime time, as evidenced by last Monday Night, and I expect them to keep this game close. We are all aware of some of the missing personnel for San Francisco on defense but is that worth a 4-point swing in just roughly 3-months, half of which being training camp?
Finally, a couple of nuggets that get me over the top.. The 49'ers are 13-and-4 ATS and 4-and-0 ATS most recently in non-conference games... and The Broncos, while Sunday Night against San Francisco gets everyone's attention, they do have a huge division tilt with San Diego next week that no matter how big Sunday's game is, this one too cannot be removed from their mental radar.
If we're going to back KC this week, we might as well get behind SF too.
Mike Rose
San Francisco +7
Three straight weeks, San Fran was on the ropes in games, and in three straight weeks, it has come back to win and cover as relatively short favorites. We've got a spread to work with now, and the 49ers generally make every point count. San Francisco knows their game plan must be to control the ball, clock and chains more this week so their top-5 run and pass defense can be their best against Manning and the Broncos offense. The 49ers have only been an underdog of more than 4 points four times under coach Jim Harbaugh, and San Francisco has won each game outright. San Francisco is now 11-2 ATS ATS in their last 13 road games and I have no choice but to take CK and the gang plus the points in this Sunday nighter.
Ross Benjamin
Carolina vs. Green Bay
Play: Green Bay -6.5
The Packers have gone 15-2 ATS in their last 17-games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 13.0, and they scored 39-points or less in their previous game. They've also gone a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS in that same identical situation is they won straight up in their previous game, and they won those 9-games by an average of 27.8 points. The Panthers have managed to get off to a very good start to the season, despite a defense that's regressed dramatically compared to the stellar unit from a season ago.
Any non-division home favorite of 5.0 or more that's gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their previous 3-games, they were a favorite in their previous game and scored 37-points or less, they've lost at least 1-game on the season, versus an opponent that has a winning percentage of better than .333, has gone 15-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The home favorite won those 15-games by an average of 21.9 points per game. Play on the Green Bay Packers minus the points.
Atlanta vs, Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -6.5
The Ravens have gone a terrific 23-2 ATS in their last 25-games as a non-division home favorite of 10.5 or less in games 7 through 15 of the season, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .100 or better. The Falcons have gone 1-0 in their last 11 true road games, and covered in just 3 of those 11-games.
Any home favorite of 3.5 to 11.0 that comes off an away favorite ATS win, and has a winning percentage of .600 or better, versus an opponent coming off a non-division home favorite straight up loss by 4-points or more, has gone 15-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The home favorite won those 15-games by an average of 23.1 points. Play on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points.
Doug Upstone
Cardinals vs. Raiders
Play: Over 44½
Play OVER on home teams like Oakland when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, being a poor offensive team (14.5-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after a loss by six or less points. The logic of this NFL system is a team like the Raiders will be fired up to show better on offense off a closer defeat and score more points against a pedestrian defensive club. This rare play is 23-5, 82.1 the last three decades.