Tony Stoffo
Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Atlanta Falcons -4.5
NFL Free Play Atlanta at Seattle Great situation for the Falcons here as their the desperate team in this spot playing against probably the worse team in the entire league. These NFC West teams rarely win out of their division, and I can see Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense to have a strong outing against a Seahawks squad that has this trend going against them: Seattle is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.
Scott Rickenbach
Saints @ Jaguars
PICK: Over 45
It would not surprise if the Saints are involved in yet another shootout here. New Orleans was involved in yet another high-scoring match-up last week as they outscored the Texans in a 40-33 win. In three games so far this season, the Saints are averaging 35 points per game. However, all is not rosy for New Orleans as their defense has been scorched for at least 33 points two times already this season. Note that, in road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points the last three season combined, the Saints have gone 7-0 to the over. As for the Jaguars, their games have gone 5-1 to the over the last three seasons combined when they enter a game on a losing streak of two games or more. Jacksonville has been throttled each of the last two weeks but their offense should respond here. They catch the Saints off of a big win and note that the Jaguars have gone 5-2 to the over the last three seasons combined when they are facing a team with a winning record. The Saints defense may not have much left in the tank after chasing the Texans all over the field last week and New Orleans may be guilty of underestimating a Jacksonville offense that has underperformed so far this season. As a result, look for the Jaguars to improve to 10-3 to the over the last 3 seasons when they are an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
TEDDY COVERS
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks
PICK: Atlanta Falcons -4.5
Seattle won a game last week at home against the Cardinals thanks to a pair of missed field goals from Arizona kicker Jay Feely and a couple of key interceptions from QB Kevin Kolb. It might be a while before the Seahawks eke out another victory -- Seattle is a very flawed football team. With eight new starters on the offensive side of the ball, it's going to take some time for Seattle to develop any semblance of positive chemistry.
It’s going to be even harder for the Seahawks chemistry to emerge when we consider that Tavaris Jackson is a bottom tier NFL quarterback at this stage of his career. He's just not making quick decisions or extending many plays with his feet. He didn’t go through his progressions at all last week – if his first option or two were covered, he looked absolutely lost in the pocket, taking four first half sacks. That’s likely to be a continuing problem against the Falcons.
The Seahawks defense hasn’t faced a balanced attack like what Atlanta brings to the table. Their first three games came against Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Arizona, none of whom can run the ball. The Falcons Michael Turner is the best back they’ve seen this year, and Matt Ryan’s downfield arm only makes Turner even more effective in between the tackles. At 1-2, the Falcons are already in must-win mode — division winners from last year aren’t supposed to start out 1-3 if they hope to repeat. I expect Atlanta to bring their ‘A’ game to the West Coast on Sunday, and the Falcons ‘A’ game is a lot better than anything Pete Carroll’s sorry squad can bring to the table. Take the Falcons.
Jimmy Moore
Pittsburgh @ Houston
Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5
The Steelers getting more than a field goal is always tempting but especially so since they are going up against a Houston team that has always been terrible as a home favorite especially with a winning record. Don't write off the Steelers yet, take the 3 and a hook to get a cover in this one.
Scott Delaney
Miami at San Diego
There's this Facebook game my teen-age daughters play: like this status, Truth is. For every friend of theirs who likes the status, they go on their pages and begin Wall Posts with "Truth is..."
Truth is you're my best friend, truth is you're a great dance, truth is you're beautiful, etc. Today's complimentary winner is going to have to be in the form of "Truth is..."
Truth is, I'm not a big fan of Norv Turner or the San Diego Chargers, never have been in. I don't believe in anything I see from week to week with the Bolts, not when L.T. was in town, not even when Dan Fouts was under center. You just never can trust this team and what it's all about. Truth is, that's exactly why this is the right week to expect them to win in a blowout.
The Chargers won in Week 1, 24-17, over the Minnesota Vikings, a non-cover. The Chargers lost in New England, in Week 2, 35-21, another non-cover. Last week, the Bolts could've easily lost, but won, 20-17, over the lowly Kansas City Chiefs, a non-cover. The only thing consistent has been how lackluster the Bolts have been against the point spread. They've alternated wins and losses the first three weeks. So most would think this is the week they lose straight-up and keep failing against the number. That's what you would think.
Truth is, this is the week the Chargers put it all together and suddenly look like the AFC West favorite everyoine tabbed them to be in 2011. Why not, when they have the No. 4 offense in the league, paced by the sixth-best passing game?
Besides, truth is, the visiting Miami Dolphins have the 30th-ranked defense overall. If you were to just look at the scores, it appears the Fins have gotten better against the scoreboard, as they've allowed 38, 23 and 17 points. Then look at the competition: Patriots in Miami, Texans in Miami and at Cleveland. Now 0-3, truth is, the Dolphins aren't getting any better one bit.
With the long trip to San Diego, coming from hot and muggy south beach to a different kind of humid ocean air, I don't think the Dolphins' stop unit has a chance to stop the Chargers' offense. Miami has the third-worst passing defense, which means we could very well see Philip Rivers' best game thus far.
Truth is, it's no secret Rivers has been pressing through the first three games, and when you're the quarterback with a target on his back, you're going to make mistakes. This week, I suspect he'll settle in nicely since there was no travel time the past two weeks, and he's had time to work on his patience and get into sync with his receivers. I know Antonio Gates likely won't play, but he's not all the Chargers have, but truth is, the Dolphins are banged up as well.
This is the right spot for San Diego to win this game big, covering the 7 points.
Truth is, the Bolts should win this by double digits.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Chuck O'Brien
New England at Oakland
Who's drinking the Kool Aid with me? There are two flavors in this game: one tastes like the New England Patriots' defense is horrible right now, the other is the Oakland Raiders are that much of an improved team, and can win this game outright. Last week the Silver and Black dispatched an AFC East power, sending the New York Jets home with their first loss of the season, and I'm betting they're 100 percent confident they can send the Patriots home with their second.
The Patriots, fresh off a loss in Buffalo, 34-31, to the surprising Bills, I suspect this team is a bit out of sorts, and will be intimidated in the Coliseum in Oakland, as its defense has been downright awful, despite a 2-1 record. Yes, the Pats beat the Dolphins, 38-24, in Miami. And then they beat the Chargers, 35-21, albeit was in New England, a far jaunt from San Diego. But this is the third road game in three weeks for the Patriots. In NFL scheduling terms, yes, it's four weeks. But they played in Miami on Sept. 12. Today is Oct. 2. That was 21 days ago - that's three weeks. Get on my level!
This is a tired and struggling Patriots team that is going to get punched in the mouth by the NFL bully, and I can see Al Davis smiling from here. Why? Well, because even though it was 9+ years ago when the tuck rule came to fruition after a snowy playoff game in New England, that still has to stick in Davis' craw. Sure, they've met thrice since, with the Raiders winning and getting revenge the next season, in Oakland; but New England has been, well, New England the past decade and swatted the Raiders twice.
This might be the first time the Raiders have a good chance to swat the Patriots all the way back to Beantown with their tails between their legs. After all, Oakland is 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS and 3-0 Over after the first three weeks of the season, much in part because of an invigorated offense that could very well thrive against this porous defense. I mean seriously, if they can put up 34 on Rex Ryan's Jets and win by 10, what do you think happens against the NFL's worst defense? That's not a typo boys, the Patriots have the 32nd ranked defense in the league, thought you knew. Get on my level!
Sort of defeats the purpose of having the No. 1 offense in the league, right? Oakland's defense isn't all that better, I know that, so maybe the Over is a better play in this game, who knows. But the fact is the Patriots are walking into a buzzsaw in Oaktown, against a young, hardcore, hungry-ass team that knows damn well Bill Belichick's boys could very well be thinking about next week's game against the Jets.
So many intangibles in this one, and they all lead up to me making money with the Raiders, plus the points, against the downtrodden Patriots.
Get on my level.
2♦ OAKLAND
Chris Jordan
Atlanta at Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks don't have near as much talent as the Atlanta Falcons, but today, talent won't matter as much as logistics. So when the two meet today at CenturyLink in Seattle, Wash., I'm betting the Seahawks are not only going to cover this game, but will challenge for the outright win. I'm not sure what is going on with the Dirty Birds, but I've watched this team move the ball effectively through the first three weeks of the season, only to fail numerous times to push the rock into the end zone. That's not as bad as Seattle's offensive futility as a whole, but given the 'Hawks are at home, I have to believe coach Pete Carroll will have his team disciplined enough to hang with what should be a travel-weary Falcons team.
Atlanta is its biggest enemy in this game, as it's put itself in a must-win position over the next few weeks, including next week's home showdown with defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay. This road trip to the extreme Northwest is the last sandwich game the Falcons needed right now. Think about it, they lose the season-opener on the road to Chicago, 30-12. They rebound surprisingly and take out the Philadelphia Eagles, 35-31, and revive hope in the home faithful after the nationally televised win. But then in what most expected to be a statement game in their first NFC South showdown of the season, the Falcons were upended by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Florida. Now they have to travel across the country with a 1-2 record, and Green Bay on the brain. This team is ripe for a letdown.
And the Seahawks are ready to serve that letdown, as the defending NFC West champions come in after a division-opening win over the Arizona Cardinals, 13-10. The 'Hawks were at home last week, so travel isn't an issue, and with a pair of East coast road trips on deck - to New Jersey and Cleveland - Carroll will have his team focused to seal this win and move out to .500.
I like what I saw out of Sidney Rice, who made his 2011 debut last week in the win, hauling in eight balls for 109 yards. So even though Seattle has struggled offensively, ranking 30th in scoring (10.0 points per game), 31st in total yards (214.7 ypg), 30th in passing (142.3 ypg) and 29th in rushing (72.3 ypg), Rice's partnership with Tarvaris Jackson is a plus, as the two played with one another in Minnesota while with the Vikings. Incorporating Mike Williams could make this a dangerous vertical game in this game.
Play this game any other time, under any other circumstance, and I'd say the Falcons soar. But this is the right spot for a Seattle upset.
5♦ SEATTLE
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
San Diego/ Miami Under 44.5: The OU is 1-11 when the Chargers are playing their 2nd of BB home games, while the OU is 1-10 when Miami is away vs teams that average 32+ TOP per game and 21+ FD per game, plus we also note that The OU is 1-14 since 1988 when a West Coast team is home favs of 3 or more vs any Eastern Division (AFC or NFC) team. The Miami defense comes in ranked 30th overall and they are also ranked 30th vs the pass, but a lot of that was due to their opening game vs the Pats, where Brady went buck w2ild with over 500 yards passing. This defense has played pretty well the last 2 games allowing just 208.5 ypg through the air and they should have some success slowing down this Chargers attack that really seems disinterested in the early going. The Chargers have been sizable faves in their first two home games and they have averaged just 22 ppg in those games. It really looks like they're just trying to do enough to win right now and the offense has sputtered a bit. We also note that Vincent Jackson is ailing, but will play, while Gates will be out. The Miami offense is really nothing special and they have put up just 29 points in their last 2 games after a good showing vs a bad Pats defense in the opener. Well they won't be facing a bad defense today. San Diego comes in 8tyh in total defense (314 ypg) and 9th in passing defense (203 ypg) . The Chargers do have some injury issues on the defensive side, but the addition of DT Tommie Harris will surely help. None of the last 9 meetings between these teams have put more than 44 ppg on the board, with those games averaging just 33.4 ppg, while the last 6 here have averaged just 36.8 ppg. I look for another game in the mid 30's here.
4 UNIT PLAYS
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
New Orleans/ Jacksonville Over 44.5; The OU is 16-3 when the Jags play at home vs teams that average 350+ ypg, while the OU is 10-1 in Saint road games with an OU line of 42.5 to 49. How can one take an Over play with a pop gun offense like the Jags on the field? Simple, The Saints offense is on the other sideline. New Orleans comes in averaging 34.7 ppg on the year and they are 2nd in the league in total offense with 437 ypg. Marques Colston has been out the last two week and they still hit 70 points in those two games, so with him back this offense is even better. He will be facing a Jags defense that looks good on the surface, allowing just 280 ypg and 20.7 ppg, but a closer look and we see that he faced a Tennessee offense that had a new QB in the Opener, then they allowed the Jets to put up 32 and a monsoon was a big reason that they held Cam Newton and the Panthers down last week. This is not a good defense and Brees will have his way with them, especially with Colston back. The Saints defense is also not very good as they come in ranked 21st in total defense (372 ypg), while their pass defense is ranked 27th (282 ypg).They can be passed on and Blaine Gabbert has hit 63% of his passes for 191 yards so far. The Jags are more of a run team, but vs this offense they will need to open it up and he can throw. Bottom line is that the Saints will get at least 30 in this one, while I see the Jags putting up at least 17 vs this bad Saints defense. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Over when a Non-Conf road favorite is off BB home wins. This system is 32-13 OU since 1989.
New England -5 OVER OAKLAND: Road favs in the first 4 weeks of the year are 17-7 ATS if they rushed for 100 yards and did not allow a sack in their last game. Ok here's another stat that I posted in another thread... Dating back to 2006, the Pats are 13-1 SU following a loss and they have outscored their opponents by 19 ppg. Now of those 13 wins only 1 of them was by less than 5 points. This is an angry team after they blew a 21 point lead last week to the Bills. They also have an angry QB, who threw as many INT's (4) as he had all of last year. Not a good thing for the league when Brady is mad. The Pats come in with the top offense in the league at 540 ypg and 2nd in scoring at 34.7 ppg. Brady and this offense must be licking their chops at facing this porous Oakland defense that is 28th overall (410 ypg) and they are 28th vs the pass, allowing 290 ypg. The Pats defense has also not been that great as they are dead last vs the pass, allowing 377 ypg, but this Raiders team has a run first mentality and the Pats defense is 10th vs run , allowing just 92 ypg. The Raiders will likely look to throw a bit more vs this bad pass defense, but I still don't see them scoring nearly enough to keep this one close. The Pats blew a 21 point lead last week and I expect them not to take their foot off the gas in this one after building a big lead. Pats by 14+ here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ San Francisco Under 44: The OU is 9-27 in Philly's home October games, while the OU is 6-19 when the Niners play a game with the total at 43.5 to 45.5. The Eagles dream team defense hasn't looked that great, but they still are ranked 12th in total defense, allowing just 329 ypg. Today they may look like a dream team defense as they face a Niners team that is dead last in total offense (231 ypg) and 28th in passing (144 ypg). The Niners did have some lucky breaks with TO's which is why they have put up 23 ppg. The Niner offense may be bad, but their defense has been very good thus far as they have allowed just 306 ypg and 17.3 ppg on the year. The Eagles offense comes in banged up a bit and I don't expect them to play much of a wide open style of game. I expect more running from them so Vick isn't that much exposed to hits. The Niners are a hard hitting team and the Eagles don't want to lose their star again. Both of these defense will be in the top 10 by years end and in a game were more running than throwing can be expected, I'll look for a game of around 35 points. It shouldn't come close to 44.
New Orleans -7 over JACKSONVILLE: I gave a big writeup on the total in this game so I won't take much of your time with this writeup. You have drew Brees on one side and Rookie Blaine Gabbart on the other. That's not even close. The Saint can score at will on any defense and they will not be denied hitting at least 30 points in this one. The Saint defense is bad, but in order for the Jags to stay in this one they will need about 34 points and I just don't see that happening. The Saints are 10-3 ATS vs the AFC, while the Jags are just 2-9 ATS vs teams with a winning record and 13-30 ATS in their last 43 on grass. Saint's by 2 TD's here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
GREEN BAY -12 over Denver: Double digit faves haven't done well this year, but I see that changing here. The Packers are a dynamite offensive team we all know that, but their defense pretty solid an it should have a good game vs a bad Denver offense. The Broncos are 23rd in scoring (19.3 ppg) and 27th in total offense and will be taking on a Green Bay defense has struggled some in the early going vs Brees and Newtown, but played very good last week vs the Bears. Kyle Orton has not been that good this year, hitting just 57% of his passes and compiling a 79.1 QB rating, while Aaron Rodgers has hit 72% of his passed and has a 120 QB rating. No contest there and I look for Green Bay to win by 14+.
Pittsburgh/ Houston Over 45: The over is 16-6 when the Texans are off a 2 game road trip, while the OU is 13-3 when Pitt allowed less than 250 yards in their last game. Pitt has turned to the aerial game a bit more this year as they are 8th in passing, but 14th in rushing. Normally that is reversed. Houston is a team that knows offense, as they come in ranked 9th overall (400 ypg) and 7th in scoring (30 ppg) and they should have another good showing vs a Pitt defense that may be starting to show it's age. Both teams will be able to score as this one hits around 50 points.
1 UNIT PLAYS
CINCINNATI +3 Over Buffalo: I know this isn't CFB where letdowns happen all the time, but this is the perfect spot for a letdown in the NFL here. Not just a letdown, but this is a total flat spot for them as they are off the huge comeback win vs the Pats last week and they have Philly on deck. Look for the Bengals to pull a mild shocker here.
DALLAS -2.5 over Detroit: Yes Dallas is off a short week vs a divisional rival, but Detroit may be in line for a bit of a letdown after a big come from behind win vs a team they they hadn't won at in a very long time. The Dallas offense is banged up, but their Defense will step it up and help them to a solid win here.
Scott Spreitzer
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
Prediction: Houston Texans
Pittsburgh has "looked their age" at times this season and are quite fortunate to own a winning record. The game against Baltimore was horrible, they drew Seattle at home in a great spot, and they barely escaped Indianapolis with a win. The running game ranks 23rd in the league averaging just 85 yards per game. The biggest problem for the Steeler offense is the banged-up offensive line. They're opening little running room and Big Ben is under pressure in the passing game too often. Trying to stop J.J. Watt up front is going to be a task. Defensively, Pittsburgh must get it together against a Houston offense that's 5th in the league running the football, while averaging 30 ppg. And oh by the way, RB Arian Foster has yet to carry the football, but expects to in this one. Doesn't matter if he does contribute yet or not because Ben Tate has shown he's more than capapble of handling the ground attack. Houston is on a 5-1-1 ATS run as a fave of 3 1/2 to 10 points and I believe they'll add to that spread covering run in this one. I'm recommending a play on Houston minus the points.
Steve Drumm
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams
Play: St. Louis Rams
The St. Louis Rams are 0-3 both straight-up and Against-The-Spread this season. But it is important to note that St. Louis has been severely hurt by the absence of Steven Jackson this season, as they are a much better team with him. In fact with Steven Jackson, Cubby actually rates St. Louis as being a slightly better team than Washington. Taking homefield advantage into account generates a value line of St. Louis -4, and hence St. Louis has a better than 60% chance of winning this game with Steven Jackson (and a 55% chance of winning this game without him). With the posted line in this game being St. Louis +2/2.5, the smart choice in this game is obvious.
Steve Merril
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Tennessee Titans +1
The Titans will be going for their first 3-1 start since they opened 10-0 in 2008. The presence of new quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has been immeasurable. Many seem to forget that he led the Seattle Seahawks to six appearances in the playoffs and to a Super Bowl. Hasselbeck is completing nearly 70% of his passes with 5 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. There’s no question that the loss of Kenny Britt is big, but Nate Washington has been very solid on the other side and he will now become the primary target of Hasselbeck on the perimeter. This is the week that Chris Johnson should get to doing what he does best and that is run the football. Johnson has gotten off to a slow start (averaging just 2 yards per carry) after his contract holdout, but look for him to come into form here against Cleveland, especially since we expect a significant increase from the 13 carries he had last week. The Browns were without their key running back Peyton Hillis last week, and while he’ll return here, do not expect him to be back to 100%. Reports have indicated that Hillis has lost significant weight and appears to have lost his strength as well. Tennessee’s rush defense has been solid as they are only allowing 89 rushing yards per game. Cleveland QB Colt McCoy isn’t quite ready to win a game on his arm alone, so the fact that Hillis isn’t right just yet makes the Browns’ offense much easier to defend. New head coach Mike Munchak is slowly putting his stamp on this Titans team. He has a veteran quarterback, a talented running back that has yet to get untracked, and a defense that is playing very good. The Titans are allowing just 14.3 points per game and just 261 yards of total offense per game. Their pass defense is much improved from previous seasons as they are currently ranked #2 allowing just 172 yards per game. Tennessee is simply the better team so we’ll back them in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon.
Charlie Scott
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers +4
The general public & media seems to fall in Love with the Texans at the start of every fall. Last Year in week #3 the 0-2 Cowboys went into Houston as 3 point dogs with everyone picking the Texans except Charlie Scott Sports and the Cowboys came away with a 27-13 win. The Steelers under Coach Tomlinson seem to play more focused and intense after a s/u loss or lackluster effort the next week. Last Sunday the Steelers win at the Colts was a lackluster effort on the Steeler's part. The Texans have always struggled vs punch You in the mouth physical teams like the Steelers. Until the Texans prove they can win a big game, I'll take my chances with the team that went to the Super Bowl last Year as a dog.
Rocketman
Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Atlanta Falcons -4.5
Atlanta is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS last 3 years as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. Seattle is 48-77 ATS since 1992 and 3-10 ATS last 3 years off a division game. Seattle is 22-48 ATS in October since 1992. Seattle is 19-41 ATS since 1992 after a win against a division opponent. Seattle is 8-19 ATS last 3 years as an underdog. Seattle is scoring only 10 points per game overall this year. Atlanta is 11-0 ATS last 11 games after scoring 15 points or less in their previous game. Atlanta is 17-4 ATS last 21 games after a SU loss. Seattle is 5-18 ATS last 23 games after a SU win. Road team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta today!
Tony Stoffo
Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Atlanta Falcons -4.5
NFL Free Play Atlanta at Seattle Great situation for the Falcons here as their the desperate team in this spot playing against probably the worse team in the entire league. These NFC West teams rarely win out of their division, and I can see Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense to have a strong outing against a Seahawks squad that has this trend going against them: Seattle is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.
Rob Vinciletti
Saints vs. Jaguars
Play: Over 45
This game fits a totals system that has cashed 30 of 39 times and plays to the over for non division road favorites of 7 or more if they are on the division road next week. The Jaguars are 9-0 to the over as a home dog of 4 or more, 4-1 after scoring 10 or less and the last 3 times in game four, The Saints have gone over in 5 of 6 after scoring 40 or more, 4 of 5 as a road favorite off back to back home games and 6 of 8 as a road favorite of 7 or more. Look for this one to fly over the total today. Take The Saints at Jaguars to play over.