EZWINNERS
Baltimore Ravens -4
The Jets are coming off of a tough loss on the West Coast last week against the Raiders and they will most likely be without Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold. Undrafted rookie Colin Baxter will take Mangold's spot and he is going to have his hands full with the 350 pound Haloti Ngata and the rest of the Baltimore defensive line. This is not good news for a Jets team that has not been able to run the ball well at all. The Ravens have already shut down Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall and Steven Jackson this year and should have no trouble doing the same to the Jets Shonne Green. A lack of a running game is going to make the Jets a very one dimensional offense with Mark Sanchez being counted on to make plays. Sanchez was sacked four times by the Raiders last week and you can expect more of the same from the Ravens in this game. This plays right into the hands of the Ravens defense. The New York defense was ran all over by Oakland last week and I expect Ray Rice to do the same in this game. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco always plays much better at home and I expect him to have a big night as the Jets try to load up to stop the run. Lay the points.
James Patrick Sports
Steelers vs. Texans
The Texans finally have a complete offense with their offensive line evolving into an elite zone-blocking unit and Arian Foster stepping up as a perfect one-cut back behind them. Their passing game is still one of the best, built around the Matt Schaub-Andre Johnson connection. QB Ben Roethlisberger is ready to air it out this season and the Pittsburgh offense could go as far as their offensive line allows them to go. The Over is (22-8-2) in Texans last (32) games following a ATS loss and (9-3) in Texans last (12) games following a straight up loss. The Over is (6-1) in Steelers last (7) games overall and (4-0) in Steelers last (4) road games.Big Game James Patrick's Sunday complimentary selectiob is on Pittsburgh - Houston Over the Total.
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis +164 over PHILADELPHIA
The first thing you’ll notice in this game is the low posted total of 7 and that strongly suggests this one could be decided by the pens. With that strong possibility hanging over this game, taking back +164 on the Cardinals is the prudent choice. The starters need no introductions. Cliff Lee v Chris Carpenter. Lee posted an elite 2.76 ERA on the year and his skills were as good or even better than ever. Just in case there was any question that Lee was in top form, he reached the 200-strikeout plateau for the first time in his career in his September 5th start. Let's just say he is on a roll. So is Carpenter. In fact, Carpenter posted a 2.15 ERA over his last six starts, covering 45 innings. He had a 53% groundball rate over that span while Lee had a 46% rate over that same span. Offensively, the Cardinals are as good or even better than the Phillies. They struck less than any team in the NL, they were also first in BA, slugging and OPS over the final six weeks of the season. The Phillies shaky bullpen is their only flaw and that makes this tag even more appealing. Of course the Phillies can win here but all the value in the world is on the red-hot Carpenter and the red-hot Cardinals offense. Play: St. Louis +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
Jack Jones
New York Giants -1
The Arizona Cardinals are clearly in trouble. They lost to perhaps the NFL's worst team last week in the Seattle Seahawks, and I don't see them being able to hang with the New York Giants in Week 4.
The Giants are coming off a 29-16 victory at the Philadelphia Eagles, winning back-to-back weeks. This team is very balanced as they can do it all.
I fully expect the Giants to be able to move the ball at will on an Arizona defense that is giving up 398 total yards/game. This is an Arizona team that gave up 477 total yards in their lone home game against the Carolina Panthers.
New York is 23-9 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 1992. The Giants are 27-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. New York is 28-13 ATS in their last 41 road games, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0. Bet the Giants Sunday.
Larry Ness
Dallas -1
One can't deny that there's a new dawn and a new day in Detroit. The Lions completed the NFL's first-ever 0-16 season back in 2008. It marked the low-point in an 'ugly' nine-year stretch in which the team was a god-awful 33-111 (.229) SU from 2001-2009. While the Lions did not break through with their first winning since going 9-7 in 2000 last year, they made more than a little 'noise' by going an NFL-best 13-3 ATS during 2010's 6-10 campaign. Detroit finished with FOUR straight wins to end last season (covered last five games), then went a perfect 4-0 in 2011's preseason, before opening this year's regular season by winning 27-20 in Tampa and then just crushed the Chiefs 48-3 in Week 2 at home. The 45-point win was the largest margin of victory in team history. If one had any doubts about the 2011 Lions, those questions HAD to be answered with last week's 26-23 OT win at Minnesota. The Lions fell behind 20-0 at the half last Sunday but came back to win, ending a 13-game losing streak at the Metrodme (last won in 1997!). Stafford has completed 66.9 percent of his passes for an average of 325.7 YPG with nine TDs and two INTs (110.7 QB rating ranks 3rd). Detroit is averaging 33.7 PPG, fourth-best in the NFL. Everyone knows the Cowboys (and Romo in particular) blew their Week 1 game at the Jets but Romo (and the team) has rebounded with hard-fought and tight wins the last two weeks. The Cowboys came back in San Francisco to win 27-24 (OT) in Week 2 and then 18-16 at home in Week 3 on Monday Night Football. Romo's completing 61.9% for an average of 314,.0 YPG. The Lions haven't posted a winning record since 2000 and have gone 11 straight seasons without making the playoffs,. However, they are one of only three remain unbeaten teams three weeks into this 2011 season. Detroit also owns the longest active winning streak in the NFL, having won four straight games to close out last season and have added three more wins to open 2011, for SEVEN straight wins (make it b>11 straight if one adds the preseason, which is stretching it!). However, the point is, these are NOT the Lions of the first decade of the new millennium. That being said, Detroit will be attempting to equal its best start in 55 years (the Lions started 6-0 in 1956 and 10-0 in 1934, their first season after relocating from Portsmouth, Ohio), and will have to outlast a team accustomed to playing tight games. The Cowboys have played an NFL-record NINE consecutive contests decided by three points or less. I thought Romo was just terrific Monday night under tough circumstances and while he's taken an awful lot of 'heat' in his career, it's hard to ignore his career W-L record in the regular season, which is a quite impressive 41-23 (. 641). The Cowboys get a much-needed bye next week and after the team's (and Romo's) fourth-quarter collapse in Week 1 at the Jets, a 3-1 record would be 'sweet.' I'm 'buying the sugar.' Take the Cowboys.
Vegas Experts
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks
Look for the Falcons to bounce back from last week's loss to the Bucs with a convincing win over the lowly Seahawks. Seattle is actually of a win, but that's not a good thing here, considering the team's 1-9 ATS mark off a home win. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 ATS off an ATS loss. Falcons won here by 16 last season.
Play on: Atlanta
BIG AL
Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee righthander Zack Greinke capped off a remarkable first year in a Brewers uniform as the veteran and former Royals ace went the entire 2011 season without losing a home start (11-0) and the Brewers in turn also were perfect this year (15-0) when Greinke went to the mound at Miller Park. So it's perhaps very fitting that Greinke is rewarded with his first-ever postseason start this evening and also fitting that the start is once again at his new home in Milwaukee. Of course that's no coincidence as the Brewers have lined up the ALDS starts so that Greinke goes today on just three days rest, but that shouldn't be a problem for a veteran who has shown that he will do whatever it takes to help his team win, even when that team was the Royals for so many years. In fact, Greinke had his last start - also at home - against the Pirates in the last game of the regular season on just three days rest and that didn't seem to matter much as he once again got the victory in a 7-3 beat down of Pittsburgh. Greinke was limited to just 74 pitches in that one and you can pretty much expect more of the same today as he will be monitored closely and will probably be pulled after a similar number of pitches. D-Backs righthander Daniel Hudson has had a great season, but he's struggled a bit at the end, going 0-3 with a 4.26 ERA in his last three starts heading into this game. Take the Brewers.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia Eagles -9
Motivated by back-to-back losses, expect the Eagles to bounce back strong against the 49ers. Philly is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NFL while San Francisco is the worst offensive team in the league with only 213.7 ypg. I don't see the Niners being able to put enough points on the board to keep this one within the number. The time to back the Eagles is now, as they are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. Plus, they have had San Francisco's number, winning each of the last 5 meetings SU and ATS. These 5 wins have come by an average of 16.8 points. The 2 wins at Philly during this span have come by an average of 26.5 points. Also, the 49ers have been pure fade material following any ATS victory recently. That's because they are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. We'll lay the points with the Eagles.
Bob Balfe
Vikings -3 over Chiefs
There is nothing wrong with Minnesota except for the fact they choke in the second half. Luckily for the Vikings the Chiefs just do not have the offense to come back from a big margin. Look for the Vikings to run the ball well with Peterson and to play great defense against a horrible KC Offense. Take Minnesota.
Ben Burns
Cardinals @ Phillies
Pick: Cardinals +1.5
With the Phillies a large favorite on the moneyline, we're able to get the Cards at a fairly reasonable price on the run-line.
The Phillies won big yesterday, which came as no surprise. I don't expect the Cards to go down so easily here though. In fact, I won't be surprised if this one is "tight" the entire way. That makes getting the extra +1.5 runs particularly attractive.
There's no denying that Cliff Lee ranks among the very best in the business. He's had another excellent year. He's in great current form. He's excelled in the postseason AND he's pitched very well vs. St. Louis.
That said, Carpenter is no slouch either! Indeed, like Lee, he's a former Cy Young Award Winner. Also, like Lee, he's in terrific current form. In fact, when his team needed him most, the veteran elevated his game going 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA over his last five starts.
While he will be starting on three day's rest, Carpenter has gone 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his last five starts against Philadelphia.
When asked about pitching on 3-days' rest, Carpenter responded: "I'm excited about it to be honest with you ... I feel good. I feel like the day in Houston the other day I didn't work too hard, didn't throw too many pitches and I've come out of it nicely..."
He went on to say: "I think it's on how I recover, not about my stuff. My stuff is fine. It's about how you recover. I've been recovering great all year in between starts."
While the Phillies are a great team, the Cards are very capable (and confident themselves. They know they can ill afford to lose with Carpenter on the mound and to fall to 0-2. In a game that could easily be decided by a single run, consider grabbing the Cards on the run-line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Atlanta Falcons -4.5
The Falcons marched into Seattle and won 34-18 last season. Motivated by last week's loss to the Bucs, I expect Atlanta to take care of the Seahawks again. The Falcons are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss and 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Diego Chargers -7
The Dolphins are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, and they'll have their work cut out for themselves against a very good San Diego team that ranks in the top 8 in both total offense and defense. Miami's best offensive weapon the last 2 weeks has been RB Daniel Thomas, who is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury. His absence will really hurt the Phins. The last time Miami visited San Diego (2009), it was handed a 10-point loss. Expect the Chargers to hand the Dolphins another double-digit defeat here. The Chargers are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Lay the number.
Freddy Wills
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
Play: Houston Texans -3-120
Don't miss out on today's early play here I love the Texans for the main reason that the Steelers won't be able to put up enough points. They will have many problems protecting Big Ben with their make shift offensive line starting 3 reserve players. The Texans defense behind Wade Phillips are better than they showed vs. the Saints and they will show that today as they bounce back defensively. Mario Williams should have a field day he can move to where single coverage is and really put pressure on Big Ben. On the otherwise they are healthy and have a 1-2 punch in the running game. Steelers defense has slowly been looking more and more beatable even going back to last year. They are giving up more than 4 yards per carry this season and even Joseph Addai looked good a week ago which is said considering Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter were the QB. If the Steelers load the box to stop the Texans effective running game they'll get beat in the passing game. Owen Daniels finally looked like a threat in the passing game a week ago and I don't think the Steelers defense can keep them in this game it's asking too much.
OC Dooley
Rams +3
To say that the 0-3 start by St. Louis has been a shock is an understatement as much was expected from this team that came one-game away from making a 2010 playoff appearance. Even though the Rams lost an ugly 37-7 contest in front of their own fans last week one could argue that they were on the wrong place at the wrong time against an angry opponent. Following last Sunday’s final verdict Baltimore is now 9-0 in the game immediately following a loss. Not only are the Rams facing an easier offense to handle this week, they are opposing a quarterback that is prone to make mistakes. I am aware that Washington dating all the way back to the preseason has been an ATS gold-mine for investors, but they are coming off a “short week” of preparation along with a very close and disturbing Monday Night straight-up setback. My database research indicates that Washington is an awful 4-14 ATS as a favorite against a losing opponent, the week after facing fierce divisional rival Dallas. Even worse the Redskins have FAILED to cover the spread FIVE consecutive seasons right before a “bye” week. In this series St. Louis is actually on a 4-0 ATS roll which means they will be more competitive against Washington than most think. St. Louis actually opened as a favorite in this contest but due to consecutive failures including a Monday Night appearance that the entire country got to view, we all of a sudden have excellent “value” with the Rams who are looking to get star rusher Steven Jackson more involved (just four touches last week). They say you cannot handicap turnovers but in his last six starts Washington quarterback Rex Grossman has thrown 7 interceptions and lost 5 fumbles which makes the Redskins a shaky road favorite
Real Time Animal
2* Green Bay -12
Somehow Denver covered last week at Tennessee despite getting out-gained 333-231. The Broncos averaged 2.6 yards per carry but won penalties 11-1. The Titans were whistled for 80 yards in infractions compared to 15 Denver. All three Broncos games have been decided by three points or less against Oakland, Cincinnati, and Tennessee. But this is the 2nd consecutive road game and the Broncos have lost seven consecutive games away including margins of 16 at Oakland, 30 at Arizona, 21 at San Diego, and 14 at Baltimore. Champ Bailey said its unlikely his injured hamstring will enable him to play Sunday. Green Bay has kind of sputtered on both sides of the ball but I like them to put it all together returning to Lambeau. They have won six straight in Wisconsin with five covers in that stretch. That included New Orleans in the season-opener, the Giants by 28, 49ers by 18, and Dallas by 38. The Packers are loaded with weapons with tight end Jermichael Finley back in the lineup. Aaron Rodgers is the #1 rated QB in the NFL with an 8-1 ratio of touchdowns to picks. Kyle Orton is #22 with a 5-3 ratio and has been sacked eight times. Just knowing the only game the Broncos have covered saw them total just 231 yards has me fading them. Green Bay has won the last two meetings at Lambeau by a combined margin of 72-9. Catch this: The Broncos are 0-6 ATS since October 6th, 1991 as a road underdog of more than seven points when coming off a road game. The Pack is 6-0 ATS the last three years when coming off a two-game road trip. In those six games they have outscored their opponents 34-13 on average. The Broncos have covered just five of their last 20 against the NFC North.