Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 20

DUNKEL INDEX

CFL

Hamilton at Montreal
The Tiger-Cats look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Hamilton is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-1)

Game 497-498: Hamilton at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 116.733; Montreal 113.410
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 3 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-1); Over

NHL

Vancouver at Columbus
The Canucks look to bounce back from their 4-3 OT loss to Pittsburgh yesterday and build on their 7-0 record in their last 7 games following an OT game on the previous day. Vancouver is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-115)

Game 51-52: Vancouver at Columbus (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.904; Columbus 10.556
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-115); Over

Game 53-54: Nashville at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.194; Winnipeg 11.098
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+120); Under

Game 55-56: Dallas at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.739; Anaheim 12.094
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Nick Parsons

Browns vs. Packers
Play: Under 46½

Cleveland is 3-3 to start the year; its O/U is 3-3.

Green Bay is 3-2; its O/U is 3-2.

The oddsmakers aren't giving the visitors much of a chance with a large double-digit spread posted, but for a number of different reasons I believe these teams will play a defensive affair, making the "under" a very legitimate investment option.

The Browns

Note that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last seven on the road. Also in 17 of its last 25 as an underdog.

The Packers

It's interesting to note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last six in front of the home town crowd. Also in 11 of its last 20 after two or more consecutive victories.

The Bottom Line

A tough stretch for the Browns sees them in Kansas City next Sunday and vs. Baltimore before their bye in Week 10.

Green Bay has been a "different" team since its bye in Week 4, two straight victories in which it's given up a total of 26 points.

Consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

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Philadelphia Eagles -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Eagles have righted the ship. Dallas decimated with Injuries, off game of the year effort vs. Denver, then huge SNF win vs. Washington. Dallas is 3-3 and has only a single win in a game where they outplayed their opponent on the line of scrimmage, a dominating win over St. Louis. Their other two wins occurred say them outgained by an aggregate 378 yards winning purely as a result of mistakes by opponents special teams and carelessness with the football. They were outgained 444-213 in their home win over the Redskins and against the Giants were outgained 478-331 and won by only 5 despite a 6-1 turnover advantage.Looking at statistics, Philadelphia is a better team than Dallas. The Eagles gain 6.6 Yards Per Play while allowing 5.8 Yards per play (+0.8 net). Dallas gains 5.9 Yards per play while giving up 6.1 yards per play (-0.2 net). The Eagles have the edge both offensively and defensively, and it adds up to a +1.0 YPP net edge. The Eagles appear to be a team getting used to some of their new schemes and are showing improvement on both sides of the ball. The news that DeMarcus Ware is out for 4 weeks with a quad injury is devastating to a Cowboys D that is poor in the secondary, decimated in on the line, and lacking defensive playmakers. Lay a short number with the home Eagles against a Cowboys team that wasn't very good even before all their defensive playmakers got hurt.

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St. Louis vs. CarolinaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CarolinaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Carolina is much better than their 2-3 record. I'm particularly encouraged by the fact that HC Ron Rivera has discovered the magic of going for it on 4th down! This just in; he has a 6'6" starting QB that was drafted #1 overall two years ago! Rivera's improved decision-making played a significant role in his team's 35-10 win over Minnesota last Sunday. In the Panthers two wins, they have outscored the opponents 73-10. Their three losses have come by a combined 22 points, two of them by five points or less.
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I expect the Panthers to be able to run the ball effectively in this game. St. Louis has been horrible against the run the last four weeks, allowing 150+ yards three times and a total of 661 yards rushing (165 yds per game). Carolina is 7th in the league in rushing offense, averaging 135.8 YPG.
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Carolina also has an outstanding defense, ranking 7th against the pass and 4th against the run. St. Louis, despite beating Houston 38-13 on the road last week, gained only 216 yards of total offense! I'm still not a believer in QB Sam Bradford and the Rams are just 8-21 ATS as a road dog of +3.5 to +7. The Panthers are a perfect 7-0 ATS after holding B2B opponents under 100 yds rushing.

Will Rogers

Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta

It's been a terribly disappointing season so far for Atlanta, who has already lost more games than they did all of last year. A very different record in close games has been the culprit, but if there's one team that's been even more disappointing it's Tampa Bay at 0-5 & I see the Falcons getting back on track.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Bucs in Disarray - If I had to put my money on a coach getting fired before the end of the season, it would be Tampa Bay's Greg Schiano. What a mess this team has turned into under his watch. Going back to last year, they have lost 10 of 11 games. Schiano simply does not seem long for this job as there are rumors he leaked former QB Josh Freeman's status in the league's drug program to the media, which is not only a serious violation, but if true would ensure he never gets a job in this league again. I do not see the Bucs players "giving it their all" for Schiano moving forward.

2. Time To Bounce Back - Atlanta has been hit hard by injuries and has suffered four losses by seven points or less. But I see them bouncing back Sunday. This is the first three-game losing streak ever under the direction of Mike Smith. Coming into the year, they were 22-3 SU off a loss with Smith as coach and Matt Ryan at quarterback. The team is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS after playing on Monday Night Football and has had an additional week to prepare after losing to the Jets.

3. X-Factor - Tampa Bay has scored an ugly total of 13 second half points in five games so far.

Art Aronson

Cincinnati vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

The visiting Cincinnati Bengals sit at 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 after a 27-24 win at Buffalo. Andy Dalton finished 26-of-40 for 337 yards three TDs and one INT. A.J. Green had 103 yards on six catches including a TD. Benjarvus Green-Ellis had 86 yards rushing on 18 carries. The Bengals outgained the Bills 483 yards to 322 yards in the win. The host Lions bounced back off a loss to the Green Bay Packers by beating the Browns in Cleveland 31-17 to move to 4-2 SU and ATS on the season. Matt Stafford completed 25-43 passes for 248 yards and four TDs and one INT in the win. Reggie Bush had 135 total yards and one TD while Calvin Johnson played but was limited to just three receptions for 25 yards. The Bengals come into this game with the disadvantage of playing to play two straight games on the road. The Bengals are just 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS on the road this season while the Lions are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home. The Lions have played the last two games largely without its their best player in Calvin Johnson. Look for him to be full go this Sunday to add another dimension to the home team. Take Detroit against the spread in almost a pick’em game.

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Bears 4-2 at Redskins 1-4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bears come out of hibernation after a 10-day rest to face a struggling Washington bunch. While the Redskins look nothing like last year’s surprise squad, they could slowly be coming back to form. Mike Shanahan teams love to run in order to set up the pass. Chicago’s run-stop unit is currently a decimated group and the backups have limited capabilities. You know there is trouble when the Giants’ fire hydrant like RB Brandon Jacobs ran for 106 yards on these cubbies. With Robert Griffin’s leash being loosened and complemented by Alfred Morris’ running skills, Chicago could be in for a long afternoon. In addition, the Bears failed to get to the very exposed Eli Manning in last Thursday’s game. As bad as Washington’s been, it still ranks fourth in total offence at almost 400 yards per game and 10th in rushing. A couple of wins puts the Redskins back in the race but it has to start here and we’re confident that it will. TAKING: REDSKINS at Even
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Vikings 1-4 at Giants 0-6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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League schedulers would like to take a mulligan on this Monday nighter, but they unfortunately cannot. We’ll try to take advantage as both teams have severe issues but Minnesota’s aren’t as hopeless as the Giants’ are. The G-Men have the better quarterback, but that isn’t saying much right now with the Vikings interchanging QBs like government workers on coffee breaks. While Eli Manning is turning the ball over at an alarming rate, much of the blame can be directed at a porous offensive line and an absent running game. What’s the guy supposed to do with the ball? The Giants’ defence isn’t much better. They don’t have the ability to pass rush as Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck have a combined 1½ sacks while the team has five in total. Recently signed Josh Freeman will get the start for the Vikes and, if nothing else, his big arm should at least draw some secondary coverage, allowing Adrian Peterson some opportunities. The Giants are a mess and cannot be trusted to win, let alone by a margin. TAKING: VIKINGS +3½
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Bills 2-4 at Dolphins 3-2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is an overreaction as the Bills are being avoided with their current ‘next man up’ quarterback situation. It looks as though Thad Lewis will get his second straight start and we have no problem with that. When we look at the talent on these two clubs, Buffalo has the upper hand in most positions. The Bills have superior runners, better receivers, better protection and a much stronger sack attack. Miami’s Ryan Tannehill is the more talented quarterback, but he spends too much time on his back after being dumped an incredible 24 times. The Bills have lost by this margin only once this season and that was when neophyte Jeff Tuel had to come in cold for E.J. Manuel in that close Thursday game at Cleveland. The Fish have covered a measly 11 times in past 35 at home. They haven’t been favoured this much since the 2009 season. There’s no reason that Buffalo doesn’t compete here in the same way it has all season. TAKING: BILLS +7½
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Patriots 5-1 at Jets 3-3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jets haven’t forgotten an earlier meeting in New England when they nearly pulled off the upset before succumbing by a 13-10 count. That game marked Jets’ quarterback Geno Smith’s second lifetime start and he’s shown gradual improvement since. The Patriots are clearly the better team but, after playing three tough games consecutively, including that dramatic win over the previously undefeated Saints last week, they could be vulnerable here. The injury bug continues to take big bites out of New England’s roster and with New York’s solid defence, the Jets have the ability to stay close again. TAKING: NY JETS +4
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Chargers 3-3 at Jaguars 0-6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jaguars lose by 16 and all of a sudden they’re sexy? According to several consensus sites, Jacksonville is getting the majority of support in this one. Let’s not forget that the Jags rank 32nd in rushing, 32nd in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in points per game, 32nd in 3rd-down conversions… shall we continue? Granted, it’s not easy to play on Monday night and then travel to the Eastern time zone for an early game but San Diego is not unaccustomed to such scenarios. With a week off upcoming, expect the Chargers to be quite motivated to be above .500 and to take advantage of this weak foe. TAKING: CHARGERS –7½
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Texans 2-4 at Chiefs 6-0FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chiefs are tops in the NFL at +12 in the turnover department. The Texans are 2nd to last with a minus-12 in the same category. That is a rarely good for the minus team. Houston started this season with a pair of wins but things turned sour quickly and the losing snowballed into four straight losses. Is Arrowhead the place to correct things? Perhaps not, but we’re big subscribers to the sell-high, buy-low theory and none fits better than this one. Kansas City sits 26th in the league in passing yards, behind the Jaguars of all teams. In this league, that’s a concern when spotting prohibitive points. TAKING: TEXANS +6½
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Ravens 3-3 at Steelers 1-4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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C’mon, man! The Steelers win their first game and suddenly they are favoured over the Super Bowl champs? The Steelers continue to have issues on the offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 18 times so far, including three times in Pittsburgh’s win over the Jets. The Steelers used to be able to counter any pass rush with one of their own, but they have just five sacks on the year. LB Terrell Suggs figures to be in Roethlisberger’s grill all day. The weak O-Line doesn’t help the Steelers’ running game either as Le’Veon Bell rushed for just 34 yards on 16 carries last week. TAKING: RAVENS +1½
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Bengals 4-2 at Lions 4-2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lions put up 74 points in their only two home games thus far and that was against divisional opponents. Now the Bengals arrive from the timid AFC North and to face a solid NFC squad. Cincinnati has one road win in three tries and that occurred in overtime at Buffalo last week. After allowing the Bills to score two fourth-quarter touchdowns, Cincy will face a dangerous Detroit offence that will have a healthier Calvin Johnson in the lineup. Megatron’s recent absence allowed for the Lions to find some other offensive weapons and combined with Reggie Bush’s backfield skills, the visitors could be in for a long afternoon. TAKING: LIONS –2½
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Cowboys 3-3 at Eagles 3-3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Some think the Eagles are on the rise, on the heels of a two-game win streak. We’re not ready to jump on that bandwagon. Philadelphia’s three wins have come against the Redskins, Giants and Bucs who are a combined 1-15. The Eagles are happy to be home after a three-game road trip. We feel the same way as these birds have covered just six of their past 29 on their own turf, including a current 0-10 mark versus the number. Dallas arrives a bit banged-up but possesses enough playmakers to inflict damage on a very unskilled Philadelphia defence. Philly must prove that it deserves this billing. Until it does, we’ll gladly fade them. TAKING: COWBOYS +3
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Rams 3-3 at Panthers 2-3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rams caught some lightning in a bottle as they went into Houston and trounced the slumping Texans to the tune of 38-13. But as they say, lightning never strikes the same place twice. The Panthers can be their own worst enemy but when they aren’t shooting themselves in the foot, they’re a pretty good football team. Carolina ranks highly in most defensive categories with their third highest ranking in total yards allowed and second in points allowed. These Black Cats also own a proficient ground game and that should bode well against St. Louis’ feeble run-stoppers. TAKING: PANTHERS –6
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Bucs 0-5 at Falcons 1-4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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How’d they miss this one for a Thursday night? Obviously, both are struggling but the difference is that the Atlanta players still want to play for their coach and owner. The same cannot be said of the Tampa situation and it’s only a matter of time before Greg Schiano takes his antics back to the college ranks. In the interim, we’ll give the Falcons a lean here as they’ve had a couple weeks to fix some things while the Bucs remain broken. This will be Atlanta’s third consecutive home game. The Falcons dropped the first two. Home now for more than a month, the recently powerful host club should be able to manhandle this spiralling visitor. TAKING: FALCONS –7
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49ers 4-2 at Titans 3-3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The 49ers are back on track, having won three straight by a combined 101-34. This day’s opponent is not a threat to slow them down. The Titans have not fared well against upper tier teams, losing consecutive game to the Chiefs and Seahawks while being held to just 30 points combined. Tennessee lacks talent in its passing game and that allows teams to stack the box in order to stop nifty RB Chris Johnson. The Niners have the personnel to do the same and we’d expect nothing less. Tennessee is getting far too much respect here at this short price and we’re not ashamed to take full advantage. TAKING: 49ERS –4
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Browns 3-3 at Packers 3-2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spotting double digits is this league can be risky business but with the Packers at home and trying to climb back up the leaderboard, we prefer siding that way than with Cleveland’s anemic offence. Green Bay is fighting through some injuries but that’s something it has adapted to the past couple of years and has barely skipped a beat in the regular season while doing so. The Pack has lost only once on this field in its past 23 games and has had little trouble covering the big numbers with 10 covers in past 14 tries in this price range. Cleveland had a nice little run after its controversial trade but the genie appears to be back in the bottle. TAKING: PACKERS –10
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Broncos 6-0 at Colts 4-2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This one figures to draw as many eyes as the Breaking Bad finale. With Peyton Manning returning to the city that he put on the football map, the storyline is set. Will Manning and his high-flying offence show heir apparent Andrew Luck how it’s done or will the emerging Luck show Peyton that there is a new sheriff in town? While Denver is capable of trouncing any opponent, the prudent move here is to back the home side as Luck should be able to do some damage against the Broncos suspect defence that saw the Cowboys and even the Jaguars do significant damage. Indy has covered seven straight as a home dog and that was with less points being taken than in this one. TAKING: COLTS +6½

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WASHINGTON (-1) 27 Chicago 25SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago escaped last Thursday night with a win against the Giants when Eli Manning threw his third interception on a late drive that sealed the victory for the Bears. Overall game numbers were similar (372 yards at 5.7 yppl for the Bears to 355 yards at 6.7 yppl for the Giants) but the difference was turnover margin as the Bears were +3. Injuries along the Bears defensive line allowed the Giants to run the ball and Eli Manning threw for 8.6 yps as the Giants moved the ball well most of the game. Overall adjusted numbers for the Bears show a team that has played well offensively but have really struggled this year on defense, particularly against the pass where they are allowing 7.8 yps to teams that average 6.7 yps. The Redskins won the stat battle last Sunday night against the Cowboys but were beaten 31-16 powered by strong Dallas special teams. Overall this season, the Redskins are about average from the line of scrimmage but are -2 in turnover differential and haven’t really looked like the team we saw a year ago with a limited Robert Griffin. I don’t have a lot of confidence in either of these teams at this point and I have situations that go both ways here. My model likes the Bears slightly but the Redskins have some matchup advantages in the ground game that I like so I will lean with Washington.
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Cincinnati (+2.5) 23 DETROIT 21SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bengals lead the AFC North with a 4-2 record after escaping Buffalo with a 27-24 OT win in Week 6 and play their 3rd away game out of their last 4 here as they travel to Detroit to take on the Lions. Adjusted season numbers show the Bengals to be about an average team on offense with a good defense, particularly against the pass. The Lions are off of a 31-17 win in Cleveland in a game where they dominated the second half after trailing 17-7 at halftime. Numbers indicate that they have a slightly above average offense overall, a pass defense that has been just below average, but a run defense that has not been good (allowing 126 yards at 5.6 ypc to teams that average 110 yards at 4.7 ypc). I like the matchups that the Bengals have in this game as they should be able to run the ball well and have the ability to limit the Lions passing offense. I thought that the Lions might be better at home than they are as my database says that they have only been average the past two years with a 9-9 ATS and SU mark. My model favors the Bengals and they also benefit from a negative 53-113-3 situation that plays against the Lions. I like the Bengals plus the points.
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ATLANTA (-7) 28 Tampa Bay 15SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay has had their struggles this year and it appears that their internal issues have snowballed a bit. At 0-4 and coming off their bye at home they were in a good spot to perform well but fell flat against the Eagles last week. They now travel to Atlanta to face a Falcons team that is coming off their own bye after losing on the previous Monday night to the Jets at home. The Bucs are in a tough spot here facing a defense that will have spent two weeks preparing for rookie QB Mike Glennon and what has been a limited Bucs offense in a loud domed stadium that will make things difficult. The Falcons have been beat up by injuries this year to important players on both sides of the ball and are clearly not the same team. Adjusted season numbers show a team with a good passing offense and not much else. Defensively they have given up 6.3 yppl to teams that average 5.4 yppl and have been poor against both the run and the pass. My model on this game supports the Falcons and although the Bucs qualify in a 123-84-8 situation I like the Falcons based on the model number and the great spot.
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JACKSONVILLE (+7.5) 23 San Diego 24SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chargers have zig-zagged their way to a 3-3 record so far this year following a loss with a win three consecutive times. It is hard to believe that the trend will continue here with a Jaguars team that is winless and at the bottom of the league in all of my adjusted stats. However, there is some support here for the Jaguars plus the number. The Chargers may be in a bit of a soft spot off of their Monday night 19-9 home victory over the Colts and with the prospect of a week off with their bye forthcoming they likely will not have full focus for this game and could be caught flat. It is very difficult to make a statistical case for the Jags here but the Chargers have a poor pass defense and coupled with the fact that they are also playing at a 10AM start time it really paints the picture of a tough spot for the Chargers, especially laying a touchdown or more. The Jags also qualify in a couple of situations that are 123-84-8 and 151-85-10 and that is plenty for me to like Jacksonville plus the points here.
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TENNESSEE (+4) 20 San Francisco 18SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The 49ers enter this game off of a 32-20 home win versus division rival Arizona where they were +2 in turnover margin and that essentially was the difference. Adjusted numbers show a well-coached team that has been above average and efficient in all phases of the game. They now travel to face a Titans team that is off of two consecutive losses with backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and with the thought of a long international trip to London on the schedule next week. The Titans have been about average from the line of scrimmage overall this year with the bright spot being a pass defense that has allowed 226 yards and 6.0 yps to teams that average 246 yards at 6.4 yps. My model leans with the Titans and they also benefit from a couple of situations that play against the 49ers here that are 34-83-5 and 4-33-3. The Titans would love to get the win here before their bye to get back over .500 and with the thought of Jake Locker coming back after the break this is a good spot for Tennessee and maybe a bit of a soft spot for the 49ers. With line value, situations and a good spot, I like the Titans plus the points.
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Houston (+5.5) 19 KANSAS CITY 22SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston comes into this game on a really bad streak as they have lost the past four games SU and ATS and have been outscored 11.3 to 31.3 on average over this period. While they have been just below average offensively, mainly because of poor pass numbers, they have been really good on defense as a result of outstanding pass defense numbers. The Texans are only allowing 131 yards at 5.2 yps to teams that average 232 and 6.5 yps! The big news this week is that a change to QB Case Keenum has been made and I don’t think that he will be a downgrade here. Schaub’s adjusted numbers aside (which have not been good), he has directly served up 28 points to opposing teams via his pick-6 streak. Although he was an undrafted free agent I believe Keenum will offer something a bit different for the Chiefs to prepare for and the team will rally around him. My model still likes the Texans here in spite of the QB change and the Texans qualify in a 643-470-40 situation that speaks to the advantage that they should enjoy rushing the football in this game. I like the Texans plus the points.
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PITTSBURGH (-2.5) 23 Baltimore 18SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Ravens come into this game off of a 17-19 home loss to the Packers in a game that was not as close as the final score would indicate. They were outgained by the Packers 360 at 5.9 yppl to 440 yards at 7.0 yppl with 93 of those yards coming on a late drive where the Ravens converted a 4th and 21 with the Packers up by 9 points. Adjusted season numbers show a team that is not very good this season and below average in most major categories except for rush defense where they have allowed 102 yards at 4.0 ypr to teams that average 119 yards at 4.5 ypr. The Steelers, meanwhile, come off of an impressive 19-6 road victory over the Jets to get their first win of the season in a contest where defense was the order of the day. Overall, the Steelers passing offense has been good but they have had essentially no rushing attack to speak of although rookie RB Le’Veon Bell has been getting into the mix and may provide some improvement moving forward. Defensively they have played pretty well overall but are not getting many turnovers (they did get two last week) and are -9 in net turnovers on the season. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my model favors the Steelers by 6.1 points here and as a result I like Pittsburgh minus the small number.
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GREEN BAY (-10) 30 Cleveland 15SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Browns played a good first half last week at home against the Lions but were outscored 24-0 in the second half as the Lions sealed a 31-17 victory after a terrible interception by QB Brandon Weeden. Despite the poor QB play of Brandon Weeden, the Browns are 3-3 on the season and just a game out of first place due to the outstanding play of their defense as they have allowed 313 yards at 4.5 yppl to teams that gain 349 yards at 5.3 yppl on average. On the other side, the Packers come off of a 19-17 victory in Baltimore to pull to 3-2 on the year and just a half game out of a first place tie. Green Bay has played very well in almost every phase of the game except for pass defense where they have had to deal with multiple injuries so far this year. My model loves the Packers here but they are dealing with lots of injuries and may also be in a bit of a flat spot themselves this week coming off of the big win at Baltimore and looking ahead to a divisional game at Minnesota on Sunday night next week. Despite the spot, I’ll lean with the model. I like the Packers minus the points.
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INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5) 28 Denver 29SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Broncos won a game last week against the Jaguars by 16 points despite the fact that they were in a bit of a look-ahead spot. Final statistics didn’t really tell the story as the Broncos only outgained the Jags by 47 yards and were -1 in turnover margin but still won with relative ease. Season numbers show the Broncos to be very good in just about every category that I look at except for pass defense where they have allowed 338 yards and 7.6 dyps to teams that average 246 yards at 6.4 yps. Those numbers are a bit misleading though as teams have been playing from behind and have thrown more often with Denver willing to concede plays in front of them at times. They now travel to Indianapolis to face Peyton’s old team in a big Sunday night contest. The Colts were in a tough spot last Monday night after beating the Seahawks at home and looking ahead to this game and lost to the Chargers 9-19. While not being at the top of statistical categories like the Broncos, adjusted numbers do show the Colts to be a highly efficient team and one that plays particularly well at home under the new coach/QB combination. The Colts are 9-2 SU at home since the beginning of 2012 and have beaten some good teams along the way (Seattle this year, Green Bay last year). The Colts benefit from a negative 49-97-5 situation that plays against the Broncos and I expect the Colts to play inspired football here in a big spot. I like the Colts plus the points.
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NY GIANTS (-3.5) 29 Minnesota 21SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The addition of QB Josh Freeman has made this matchup a bit more interesting as the Vikings have some good pieces but have really suffered from poor QB play. I’m not sure how much better the QB play will be as Freeman had not played well this year but I expect that the change of scenery will be a good thing for him. The Vikings must have seen all they needed to make their decision in a short time as they decided on Freeman as the starter after being with the team for less than two weeks. His numbers with Tampa were not dissimilar to the Vikings QB’s so far this year so I’m less than convinced that he will be able to step in here on short notice, without developed rapport with his offensive line and WR’s and be able to perform at anything above an average level. As a result, I would expect the Vikings to lean on Adrian Peterson a bit more here against the Giants but New York has defended the run pretty well this year allowing 4.2 ypr versus teams that average 4.6 ypr. Another matchup of interest is the Vikings pass defense which has been bad (allowing 308 yards at 6.9 yps to teams that gain 254 yards at 6.3 yps) versus the Giants pass offense which has been about average but certainly has talent and the potential to play well here, especially with injuries in the Vikings secondary. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my model sides with the Giants here and I like the fact that they have had a mini-bye to regroup after playing the Bears last Thursday night. I like the Giants minus the points.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Baltimore Ravens +2½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Call it the curse of the Pittsburgh offensive line. The Steelers were so desperate to shore up their battered and inexperienced offensive line they signed over-the-hill veteran Levi Brown.
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Brown was slated to play this past Sunday, but suffered a triceps injury during pregame warmups and is out for the season. Why even bother with Brown, a notorious poor pass blocker?
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Because the Steelers have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Pittsburgh is averaging less than 61 yards running a game, on pace to finish with their lowest rushing average since 1935. Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 18 times in five games.
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Baltimore has the pass rushers to take advantage, particularly Terrell Suggs. He has seven sacks and is playing as well as he did two years ago when he was one of the best defensive players in the league.
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The Ravens have struggled to run the ball, too. Joe Flacco is having a poor season. But at least help has arrived for the Ravens. They have healthy wide receivers now, including speedster Jacoby Jones joining Torrey Smith. Ray Rice is far better to any running back Pittsburgh has and Flacco now has a cleaner pocket with tackle Eugene Monroe joining the starting lineup.
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This has been an unbelievably tight series with seven of the last eight regular season games decided by a field goal or less. Pittsburgh hasn't defeated Baltimore at home by more than three points since 2007 - and that was with far better teams than this one. So taking any points in this matchup is appreciated.
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Another tight game is expected. But the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens have the superior talent. The Steelers have a great tradition and are well coached, but their defense has too much age, their offensive line is terrible, the skill position talent is down and Roethlisberger and offensive coordinator Todd Haley are at odds.
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Beating the Jets for their first victory doesn't change anything. The Steelers are bad, very bad this season. They aren't in the Ravens' class.

Alex Smart

Buffalo vs. Miami
Play: Under 43

My predictive models are telling me that this tilt will end up on the low side of the number. Under is 11-3 in Bills last 14 games following a bye week.Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. AFC East.Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 vs. AFC East.Under is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 games following a bye week.Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Miami.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Steelers finally got off the schnied with a win over the NY Jets last week. They return home to take on their bitter rival, the Ravens. Neither team resemble what you normally expect to see. Both can't run the ball and can't convert on 3rd down. The Ravens really miss Boldin and Pita. They are both still good defending 3rd down however. The Steelers do have some hope in rookie RB Levaon Bell. Look for him to improve the Steeler rushing game as the season goes on. I think the Ravens will struggle all year, mainly because of the poor OL play. Two area where the Steelers have the big advantage: the kicking game and their pass offense vs. the Raven pass defense, both well over 7.0 ypa. Look for the Steelers to take round 1 at home vs. Baltimore.

Playersbet

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -6

What is going on in Houston? It is not going to get any easier this week as this sputtering Houston Teams heads into one of the toughest places to play Arrowhead Stadium. KC has busted out of the gates to a perfect start going 6-0 and 5-1 ATS. Who is going to play Quarterback for Houston this week has been one of the biggest questions coming into this week. Matt Schaub is in injured, T.J Yates didn’t look to promising throwing 2 picks, 1 being a pick 6 in last weeks blow out to the Rams at home. Third stringer Case Keenum will get the ball for Houston in his 1st career start and we would like to wish him luck. The Texans are 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 road games. Its just so tough to make a case for Houston right now and with this spread being under a TD it jumps off the board. Will trust K.C.’s penchant for big plays on defense and special teams, not to mention its superior ball security, as we fade Houston until further notice.

Wunderdog

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Pick: Over 40.5

My how times have changed. It is strange to see both of these teams struggling, with neither over .500 heading into week seven. While they are both respectable on defense, they are both allowing over 20 points per game on the season. The Ravens have allowed 31.7 points per game in their three road tilts. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has given up 28 per game at home this season. It isn't getting better for Baltimore as they have at least four defensive starters either out or ailing. While defense has been the calling card for these clubs, it hasn't been that way when they tangle, as the OVER has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings overall, and 7-2-1 to the OVER in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh. The Ravens have also played to a 13-5 mark to the OVER in their last 18 when following a loss. Under John Harbaugh, Baltimore is 19-10 OVER as a road dog. This one has always looked defensive, but most of the time that simply isn't the case on the scoreboard. Take the OVER.

Steve Merril

St Louis Rams vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -6½

St. Louis is allowing 25.7 points and 388.7 yards per game. Opponents have averaged 6.0 yards per play which ranks the Rams’ defense #26 in the league. St. Louis is also allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt which also has them ranked #26 in that defensive category. The Rams’ offense has done nothing of substance this season. They average a pedestrian 4.7 yards per play (#30), including 3.2 yards per rush (#29) and 5.8 yards per pass attempt (#27). St. Louis is converting just 31% on third down so they’ve also been unable to sustain drives. Last week they got two non-offensive touchdowns with one coming on defense and one coming on special teams.

Carolina is finally starting to play to their talent level. Over their last three games, Carolina has been a dominating team. They’ve out-yarded their opponents by a whopping 432 yards (1,122-690) while out-scoring them by 47 points (79-32). The Panthers’ defense has been outstanding this season. They are giving up just 14 points on 299 yards of offense per game. Carolina is holding opponents to just 5.0 yards per play (#8), including 3.8 yards per rush (#11) and 6.2 yards per pass attempt (#7). Carolina holds two significant advantages on offense in this game. The Panthers have a major rushing edge as they have a +47 net rushing yards margin while the Rams have a -58.7 net rushing yards margin. Carolina is also one of the best offenses in converting third downs; they rank #2 in the NFL with a 49.2% conversion rate. The Panthers are the much better team on both sides of the ball, and we expect St. Louis’ good fortune to run out this week. Lay the points with Carolina in this game on Sunday afternoon.