Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON (pick'em) over Chicago
Although the record may not show it, the Redskins are getting better as RG III rounds himself into game shape. The second-year QB was rusty and unprepared for the season to start due to his myriad of injury problems, but after getting a bye two weeks ago he played his best game of the season last week at Dallas, despite losing a misleading 31-16 decision. Washington out-gained Dallas, 433-213, in total yards in that game and that provides us some line value this week. The Bears are just 15-21 ATS the last three seasons and have a bye next week. Since the start of last season, NFL teams are just 7-23 ATS when they have a bye the following week and are playing a team that does not have a bye on deck. Flat spot for the Bears. Must-win for the Skins. Take Washington.
Bob Balfe
Carolina Panthers -7
St. Louis got a huge win over the Texans last week on the road, but that is a struggling Texans Football Team. The Panthers play great at home and this team is starting to peak. The Rams are a very young football team and it will be very tough for them to run the football or operate against this defense. Carolina is starting to get going on offense and I think Cam Newton has a field day today as does this running game. Look for the Panthers to break this game wide open. Take Carolina.
Larry Ness
Cincinnati vs. Detroit
Pick: Over
The Bengals have been to the playoffs in each of the last two seasons and while last Sunday’s 27-24 OT win at Buffalo was not the team’s best effort (Bengals’ D allowed Thad Lewis to direct two 4th-quarter TD drives to send the game into OT), the victory gives Cincinnati a 4-2 start to the 2013 season, propelling the Bengals to sole possession of first place in the AFC North for the first time since winning the 2009 division title.
Regulars are well aware that I’ve championed the Lions’ chances for improvement in 2013, right from the start. Here’s why I expected Detroit to rebound from LY’s 4-12 season. Moving the football wasn’t a problem for Detroit in 2012, as the Lions ranked third in total offense (408.8 YPC) but finishing off their drives was an issue, as the Lions averaged a modest 23.3 PPG. Consider that New England led the NFL in total offense but averaged 34.8 PPG, New Orleans was second in total offense and averaged 28.8 PPG and Denver finished fourth in total offense and averaged 30.1 PPG. One has to realize just how poorly the Detroit offense executed (when it mattered most) in 2012. Detroit’s defense wasn't bad either, as the team ranked 13th by allowing 341.1 YPG, meaning the team which finished the year outgaining foes on average by 67.7 YPG, would win just FOUR of its 16 games. The Lions were plus-67.7 YPG on the 2012 season, second-best in the NFL to Denver!
With the addition of Reggie Bush in 2013, I expected Detroit to fix the above issues. It’s NO surprise (at least to me), that in the three times in which Bush has played a full game (Weeks 1, 4 and 6) AND Calvin Johnson has also been available (he wasn’t in Week 5 vs the Packers), the Lions have scored 34, 40 and 31 points (35.0 per). Clearly, many of Detroit’s offensive problems have been corrected and let’s also note that the Lions' 13 takeaways are tied for fourth in the league, after finishing 27th with only 17 last year. The Lions have had a positive or even turnover margin in EACH of their six games this year, something they accomplished just seven times all of last season. No wonder Detroit has already matched its win-total from 2012 after just six games in 2013.
Matthew Stafford and the offense have scored 34 points off those takeaways (tied for seventh in the NF) and while Calvin Johnson has struggled with nagging injuries so far, Stafford has two new weapons this year. There is undrafted 6-7 rookie TE Joseph Fauria, who became the first TE in team history to catch three touchdown passes in a game last Sunday vs Cleveland, and 6-6 WR Kris Durham (eight catches vs Cleveland). Stafford seems poised for a big year (62.8% / 295.3 YPG / 12-4 ratio) as does Bush (376 YR / 4.8 YPC plus 20 catches for 261 yards with two TDs).
I’m NOT quite as sold on the Bengals but I will note that QB Andy Dalton did complete 26 of 40 passes for 337 yards and three TDs last week vs Buffalo (earning conference player of the week honors). Many call Cincy’s backfield of Green-Ellis and Bernard a “dynamic duo” but Green-Ellis averages a poor 3.3 YPC and Bernard a modest 4.0 YPC.
However, I get the feeling that the Lions have rediscovered their playoff form from 2011 (the team's 4-2 start has come despite playing FOUR road games already) and considering Detroit has averaged 37.0 PPG in its first two home games of 2013, should score here. The perfect conditions inside the dome at Detroit will also give Cincinnati' its chances as well. Go Over!.
Bruce Marshall
Houston vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
Other than Lem Banker's time-tested contrarian argument, it's hard to make much of a case for deteriorating Houston bunch that hasn;t covered a spread since preseason. Especially against the chemistry-rich and unbeaten Chiefs, who have Andy Reid wondering why it took him so long to get out of Philadelphia. Although the Texans might finally have a legit excuse to sit Matt Schaub (ankle), neither T.J. Yates (responsible for another Texan QB pick-six last week vs. the Rams) nor Case Keenum (who makes his first NFL start today) appear to be better alternatives for the suddenly under-fire Gary Kubiak. Will trust K.C.'s penchant for big plays on defense and special teams as we fade Houston until further notice.
Jesse Schule
Cleveland @ Green Bay
Pick: Green Bay 1st Half
There is a lot of buzz about the Packers injury woes, with Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb the most notable players not expected to play this Sunday.
The result is that the Pack are only being asked to cover single digits against a Cleveland team that has looked awful with Brandon Weeden under center. The Browns have been blown out in all three of the games that Weeden has started this year, and he looked terrible at home last week.
Weeden was picked off twice in the loss to the Lions, and he's now thrown five interceptions, one more than he has TDs for the season. A trip to Lambeau is often a recipe for disaster for a struggling quarterback.
The Packers have been able to lean on their running game, with rookie Eddy Lacy gaining 219 yards on 46 carries the last two weeks.
Even without Cobb, I don't think Aaron Rodgers will have any trouble moving the ball at home with Jermichael Finley and Jordy Nelson as healthy targets.
I'm expecting this game to be a one-sided affair, with Green Bay getting in the endzone early and often.
Tony Karpinski
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Miami Dolphins -6½
Miami has had Buffalo's number and the Bills are using a 3rd string QB. Fueled by back-to-back defeats and aided by an extra week of preparation time, the Dolphins should continue their dominance over the Bills. Miami is 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 against Buffalo. The Dolphins have gone 4-1 at home during this stretch with the 4 wins coming by 9, 28, 27 and 14 points. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home while the Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road. Lay the points and expect a BLOWOUT here.
Jimmy Boyd
Carolina Panthers -6½
The Cardinals have turned things around recently, winning two of their last three games. While St Louis has also won two of their last three, one of those victories came against Jacksonville and the other was against a struggling Texans team forced to play with their back-up quarterback. Those victories are hardly impressive. The Rams amassed just 216 yards in the win over Houston, and 351 yards against Jacksonville, getting outgained in total yardage by their opponents in both of those games.
The Panthers defense has been tough all year, especially when playing at home. They have allowed a mere six points per game at home, and 13.6 points per game overall this season. The run defense ranks among the best in the league, and while the secondary has allowed a high completion percentage, they have not given up a lot of yardage. The offense appears to be improving with each passing week. They are coming off a 35 point performance on the road against Minnesota, and should have no problem beating up on this Rams team that has allowed 25.7 points per game.
Kyle Hunter
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -6
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to defy the odds as they roll on as one of the NFL's last unbeaten teams. The Chiefs defense is far better than they get credit for. This is a group that can really get after the quarterback. Houston has all kinds of problems right now, and I don't see this team bouncing back right away. The Texans issues are on both sides of the ball, and this team doesn't have chemistry right now. Houston loses the turnover battle every game, and that is how the Chiefs have been winning big. Kansas City is too disciplined for Houston. Take KC.
Red Dog Sports
St Louis vs. Carolina
Play: Under 42½
Carolina has 2 overs and 16 unders as a home favorite in the last 18 games while the St. Louis Rams have seen 2 overs and 16 unders before playing a division home game. The last 4 meetings have stayed under between the Rams and Panthers.
Eddie J
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans
Pick: San Francisco 49ers
The (4-2)49ERS take on the (3-3)Titans. SF has turned things around outscoring their last 3 opponents 101-34. The Titans have the 29th ranked offense and things won't be easy vs an opportunistic Niners D which has created 8 turnovers in the last 2 games. The Niners have also averaged 181.7 rushing yards per game L3.
Jim Feist
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Your free pick for Sunday, October 20th, 2013, comes in the NFL as the Bucs and Falcons meet in a division clash. A pair of disappointing teams meet in Atlanta. Atlanta was in the NFC title game in January with a 17-0 lead and blew it, and now they are 1-4. What a downer for a team with such high expectations and they are vastly overvalued, on a 1-7 ATS run. Meanwhile Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS on the road and when these teams meet the Bucs are 8-3-1 ATS last 11 meetings, as well as 5-1 ATS in Atlanta.
Ken Thomson
Patriots -3.5
Gronk is back. That should be a confidence booster for Brady and the Pats. The Jets won't be intimidated but don't have the offense to stay up with the Pats. I like New England by 10.
Broncos -6.5
Most of you know I'm a big Colts fan. I was at the Colts-Chargers game Monday and gave out San Diego. Irsay says stupid stuff. Manning is at another level..I think this will be a lesson for the Colts. Be thankful for what you had....it was a life changing 14 year ride!!....Denver 41 Indy 27
Andy Iskoe
Bills +7.5
Backup QB Lewis fared well in his Bills debut, directing a pair of fourth quarter scoring drives to force overtime in a 27-24 loss to Cincinnati. Miami is off its Bye. Both teams show many similarities in the statistics with neither team having any significant matchup edges. Buffalo's strong rushing offense is offset by Miami's strong defense against the run. There''s little to suggest the differences between these teams is great enough to justify Miami as close to a double digit favorite in this Divisional game against a foe that's played better than most expected. And there is often more potential for a team with a first season coach and QB to show continued progress as the season wears on.
Dave Essler
Jaguars +9
This number is 9.5 in a few place, and 7.5 in a few. I think as long as we're over a touchdown it shouldn't matter. Chargers on short rest playing an early East Coast game. I get this it's Jacksonville, but with Blackmon back they CAN move it some. If Cecil Shorts were playing, I really would make this a 3* and could upgrade it later. But, this is not a play ON Jacksonville as much of a fade of the Chargers, who frankly, are just not that good. Better, perhaps. but not the team we saw beat the Colts last week. They lost to the Raiders, and to me the truth of both of these teams is somewhere in the middle. I don't think this game comes terribly close to the total either, but will watch that one.
Anyone just getting this may have a hard time finding the number our long term clients got, but if I thought it mattered we'd take it down. Anything 7 or over should be solid. Jacksonville simply knows they're not going to get too many chances, and before the pack it in, we should see a solid effort here. Also, the weather in J'ville is simply not San Diego weather. It's chilly and may rain.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +6½ over KANSAS CITY
Anyone can go through the X’s and O’s and tell you which team is supposed to come out ahead but unfortunately it isn’t that simple. One of the criteria you should employ is to look for inflated lines based on last week’s results and the Texans fit that bill to a tee. The Texans went into a nuclear implosion last week in their spanking by the visiting Rams, which is akin to being challenged to a sandlot football game by some middle schoolers who proceed to steal your sense of manhood. Anyone who had previously wagered on the Rams, including us, was flabbergasted that St. Louis could go into Houston and put a beating like that on anyone, let alone the Texans. Well, that result, the loss of Matt Schaub and four straight losses have all combined to make the Texans the least appealing team to bet on in the NFL right now. The entire world is looking to fade the Texans this week against the 6-0 Kansas City Chiefs. We say whoaaaaaa boy because Houston is NOT this bad and rarely are they offered a margin like this. We get the benefit of an inflated price on a true buy-low squad and that’s precisely the right time to step in.
Besides, are the Chiefs really this good? A 24-7 win over Oakland last week equals a misleading score. That game was close throughout. In fact, you could go through all the Chiefs’ games and see misleading scores. Sure, K.C.’s defense has been outstanding but its offense is usually stuck in neutral the entire game. Oh, and by the way, no QB has thrown for more than 195 yards on the Texans defense and Alex Smith has thrown one TD in his last four games. On paper, K.C is winning easy but when you look under the hood of this offense, it’s about as pedestrian and predictable as it comes. Houston is playing for dignity here, much in the same way the Jag-wires were last week. Hell, even the language in Houston regarding the Texans is salty and the criticism extends to players’ mamas. Thousands of Texans fans cheering that Matt Schaub got hurt last week surely has this team saying, “enough is enough”. The Texans are down and out right now and a response is in order. Upset possibility.
GREEN BAY -9½ over Cleveland
The Browns have hung around in a lot of games and they have a very respectable 3-3 record but in case you all forgot, let us remind you Cleveland was written off for dead a few weeks ago when they went into Minnesota the week after Brandon Weeden was injured and the same week Trent Richardson was traded. That was the Brownies last road game and the books had the Vikes as a 6-point choice. The betting public could not lay it fast enough and sure enough the Brownies went into Minnesota and defeated the Vikes outright. Since then, Cleveland has played three home games against Cincinnati, Buffalo and Detroit, winning the first two before losing by 14 to Detroit last week. The point is, if the Brownies were being offered six in Minnesota, they should be offered at least twice that in Green Bay. Prior to facing Matthew Stafford last week, the Browns hadn’t faced even an average quarterback and Stafford ended up throwing 4 TD passes. Cleveland’s only other road game (besides Minnesota) was in Baltimore in a game they lost 14-6. Brandon Weeden is 0-3 when he plays a full game. The Browns’ defense keeps them in most games but on the road and facing better teams will make the offensive shortcomings all too easily seen. The Brownies may hang around in the first half here but the Pack will wear down this defense and blow this game open at some point.
Aaron Rogers always has a great chance for a huge game. His accuracy is off the charts, as he continues to hit receivers right in the numbers on almost every pass. And unlike most clubs, the Packers have a strong running game, featuring three different runners who have topped 100 rush yards. Eddie Lacy ran 23 times in each of the last two games and gained 99 and 120 yards respectively. The Pack have played just two home games this season. Green Bay defeated the ‘Skins by 18 and the Lions by 13 and they are surely not facing a better offense here. The Brownies can compete at home and sometimes on the road when facing average QB’s but Aaron Rodgers is anything but average. Get mistake prone Brandon Weeden on the road and there is big trouble looming for him, especially at one of the NFL’s toughest venues on visitors. Pack in a romp here.
PHILADELPHIA -3 over Dallas
You could spot 2½ and 15 cents if you like but if we thought that a half point mattered we would look elsewhere. Instead, we’ll spot the field goal and take back a small tag because the Cowboys are in too difficult a spot here. The ‘Boys’ stock is high right now after their near win over Denver followed by a prime time, easy win over the Redskins. That’s back-to-back weeks that Dallas has been in the NFL spotlight and they’ve come through with flying colors. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been out of sight and out of mind since its 26-16 loss to the Chiefs in a Thursday night prime time affair in Week 3. Subsequently, the Eagles were expected to get blown out by Denver and they did, losing 52-20. Last week they played the Bucs in a game that attracted little interest and in between those two, they played the then 0-4 Giants. The Eagles’ flame has completely fizzled out after that incredible offensive display in Week 1. Back then it was the talk of the NFL and now it’s not even mentioned.
Enter Nick Foles and the offensive mind of Chip Kelly to face a Dallas defense that is absolutely putrid. The Cowboys have already allowed Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers to pass for over 400 yards and at least three scores each. Statistically, Dallas is the NFL’s worst defense and now they are without its only legit pass rusher, De Marcus Ware. Nick Foles took the full start last week and ended up with 296 passing yards and three touchdowns along with a rushing score as well. That was against a decent Tampa Bay defense. Philly Chip will have these Eagles on the move in much the same way he did in Week 1. Philadelphia will exploit every weakness the Cowboys have on defense and there are plenty of them.
The Cowboys offense takes a step down whenever they board a plane. DeMarco Murray made it five games before getting injured this season and his sprained MCL will keep him out for at least one to three more weeks. Lance Dunbar is out with a hamstring issue so the rookie Joseph Randle becomes the starter this week by default. His only work all year was last week when he ran for 17 yards on 11 carries and scored once. Dallas is banged up, emotionally spent and they’re 0-2 on the road, which makes this week the worst possible time to be facing the Eagles.