DAVE COKIN
HOUSTON TEXANS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Take: HOUSTON TEXANS
I love breaking down football games, matching up the strengths vs. weaknesses, examining the schedules, and of course, formulating my own number. And for the most part, it’s those factors that produce my plays. But there is an exception to that rule, and it shows up today in the NFL.
The Houston Texans have been so awful, calling them that is an insult to awful. It hasn’t been bad luck either. According to the DVOA charts at footballoutsiders.com, Houston is the 29th overall team in the league. They’re mid-pack on defense, and manure on offense and special teams.
The Chiefs are 6-0, and DVOA has them #3 overall. Average offense, but an outstanding defense and high end special teams. In other words, a legit contender right now, not at all a fluke they’re unbeaten.
The Texans are reeling with what might be a lame duck coach and they’re pitching a first-time starting QB in Case Keenum. They’ve been outscored by an insane margin since holding that big lead against the Seahawks a few weeks ago.
The Chiefs are not only perfect straight up, they’re also 5-1 against the number. They love to blitz and one has to think that’s a likely problem for a guy with no real NFL game experience on the other side of the ball.
So we have all these dominating variables that scream easy win for the Chiefs. Yet the line for this game is less than a TD. In fact, it opened as low as -4 last Sunday. How is that possible?
The oddsmakers are not always right. It might well be that the Chiefs clobber the Texans today and the books get blown out in the process. But these outfits are not stupid, and this game is a classic case of the line being set where there’s zero chance of split action. 75% of the tickets written on this game will be on the Chiefs, maybe even more than that. They’re going to be a monster teaser play as well.
I don’t always side with the “sharps” and therefore fade the “squares”. My Saturday college card would serve as proof that who’s on what side doesn’t matter much to me. I trust my own data and instincts. But when it’s as clear cut as this, especially based on where the number was set and still resides, I’m going to be siding with the house. In this case, that means taking the points with the Texans.
Carlos Salazar
Steelers vs. Ravens
Play: Under 41
Can you say smash mouth football. The hits will be hard the points even harder to come by in this AFC North match up between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Both teams know each very well and with the offense struggles the two are having this game will stay well under the 41.
Doug Upstone
Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Green Bay Packers -9
On Sunday, Play Against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Cleveland, a poor rushing team averaging 70 to 95 rushing yards a game, against a team (Green Bay) with a good rushing defense (70-95 rush yards allowed per contest). In the last decade, this NFL system is 33-8 ATS, 80.5 percent.
Big Kat Sports
New England Patriots -3.5
The New England Patriots will look for back to back wins after their dramatic come from behind victory over the Saints last week when they travel to Met Life Stadium to take on the Jets this afternoon. The Pats gave up a TD late in the 4th quarter to go down 27-23 before Tom Brady marched them down the field, hitting Kenbrell Thompkins with 5 seconds left on the clock for the game winning TD all while handing the Saints their first loss of the season. The Jets enter today’s contest off a 19-6 loss at home to the Steelers just a week after their marquee win of the season thus far, a road win on Monday Night in Atlanta to close out the Week 5 schedule. New York isn’t as bad as many thought when the season started but they aren’t nearly as good as they may have looked in that win over the Falcons. They still have a rookie in Geno Smith playing the QB position and if you take that Atlanta game out when looking at his numbers, his has thrown just 4 TD passes compared to 10 INT’s. In fact, New England picked off Smith 3 times in the 4th quarter just 5 week’s ago when the Pats defeated the Jets 13-10 in New England, despite going just 4-18 on third down conversions. The Pats were suffering from a ton of injuries on the offensive side of the ball back in Week 2 but they should be much better this afternoon. RB Steven Ridley retuned from injury last week against New Orleans and the Pats expect Rob Gronkowski to make his season debut this afternoon. The return of Gronk, if he’s at full strength, gives Brady both a 3rd down security blanket and a red zone threat, two things the team has been missing all season. The Patriots are a bit banged up on the defensive side of the ball but we don’t see any weapons on the Jets that will be able to exploit those injuries. Vince Wolfork is out in the middle but the Jets have zero running game at the moment and CB Aqib Talib is also expected to miss, but the Jets don’t have a wide out that can stretch the field. Add to all that the fact that the Patriots have won and covered 5 of the last 6 games in the head to head series and we’ll lay the small number with them on the road to get the win over the Jets.
River City Sports
Washington Redskins vs Chicago Bears
Play: Washington Redskins
This matchup at Fedex field is about Washington’s balanced office, 10th rushing, 10th passing against the Bears banged up Defense. They are on their 4th and 5th DT and will be without MLB DJ Williams. Not good because RGIII is coming back into form and Alfred Morris is finally healthy. Chicago has only allowed 2 teams to rush for more than 80 yards on them this year and are 0-2 ATS in those games. Washington has hit that mark 21 of their last 22. Washington also has had 10 day prep time after coming off their Thurs night game and Chicago is heading into a bye. Teams heading into a bye week the past 2 years 5-17 ATS.
SPORTS WAGERS
Vancouver -½ +146 over COLUMBUS
Regulation only. John Torterella has instilled a work ethic into these Canucks that we haven’t seen for a couple of years now. He also has this team believing in their talent and suddenly Vancouver is playing like they expect to win. That’s a huge change in the mind-set of this team. Yesterday, Vancouver went into Pittsburgh and although they lost 4-3 in a shootout, it was perhaps their best game of the year so far. It’s not often a team goes into the Igloo and takes it to the Penguins but that’s exactly what the Canucks did. Vancouver is now 3-0-1 in four road games and absolutely has a great chance to defeat the reeling Blue Jackets here.
Both teams will play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs but the difference is that Vancouver played yesterday afternoon while the Jackets played in Washington last night. Furthermore, the Jackets return home from a 0-3 road trip to Nationwide Arena where they are 0-2. The Jackets have scored one goal in three of their past four games and have lost all four. The Jackets even lost at home to Calgary to open the year. And how about Sergei Bobrovsky? He was last year’s Vezina winner and this year he’s back to being the same stiff he was when he played for the Flyers. Amazing how things change when expectations increase. Bobrovsky’s even-strength save percentage actually shows that his season was good-but-not-great, and it’s safe to say the Blue Jackets are going to give up more goals-per-game than last year. Hell, the most overrated player in the league, Jack Johnson, will all but ensure that. Marian Gaborik is in the process of giving up the other half-step off his speed of old (to make it a full step), and after that we’re turning where for offense? Umberger and Foligno? Or further down the depth chart to Jared Boll and Blake Comeau? This team has jacked expectations so far beyond the reality that they’re not that deep in elite talent that people forget that they’re still nowhere near ready to compete with the league’s, ahem, real teams. Vancouver is quickly returning to that status.
Nashville +137 over WINNIPEG
Regulation only. Back-to-backs are tough, especially after a big win in Montreal on Hockey Night in Canada but the Predators are playing too good to ignore as a significant pooch in Winnipeg. Nashville has picked up points in four straight games with three wins and one OT loss to Los Angeles. Seth Jones is impacting every shift he plays and his winning goal last night against Montreal was a thing of beauty. The Predators roll out four solid lines that coach Trotz can rely on at any point in the game. They also feature a strong defense that rarely makes a mistake. The Preds have allowed two goals or less in four of their six games and even held the Islanders to a mere 16 shots on net. Confident and hugely undervalued, the Preds are just too live a pooch to ignore here.
Winnipeg is coming off a huge come from behind win over St. Louis in OT. Trailing 3-1 in the third, the Jets somehow managed to tie it and win it in a shootout. That was their second win in six games. In three of their six games, the Jets have scored one goal or less. One of their two wins came against New Jersey. The Jets two top point-getters are defensemen. No team has less depth up front than Winnipeg. After Evander Kane, Bryan Little and perhaps Blake Wheeler, the Jets feature a bunch of third and fourth line forwards. On their very best day the Jets would have trouble defeating a team like Nashville because they are inferior in every aspect and chances are that inferiority will be ion full display here.
Nelly
Cleveland Browns + over Green Bay Packers
The Packers moved back above .500 last week with a big win at Baltimore but it was not without damage with two key receivers leaving the game. There is not great depth the position but there emerging running game for the Packers may help soften the blow. The Green Bay defense has also played two consecutive excellent games coming out of the bye week though the overall season numbers are not great. Green Bay does have the best point differential in the NFC North and this will be a key game to avoid a letdown after beating the Super Bowl champions and facing the rival Vikings and Bears the following two weeks. Cleveland fell to 3-3 with the offense still moving the ball well behind Brandon Weeden but featuring untimely turnovers in a game Cleveland could have won to keep the lead in the division. The Browns have the undefeated Chiefs next week so the promise of the season may be short lived without an upset. The Browns are one of the best defensive teams in the NFL and the Packers have been bogged down in the red zone the last several weeks, settling for mostly field goals and that trend could continue with the depleted receiving corps and going against the best defense the team has faced this season.
Brady Kannon
Bengals +3
Here we go again with a team we played one way in the week prior and we're going the other way in the current week. The Bengals pulled out an overtime win in Buffalo but we cashed the ticket with The Bills staying within the number. This week however, we like the striped cats as underdogs in Detroit. While we went against The Lions last week and really liked our chances going into the half, up by 10-points straight up, that one went sour for us when Cleveland failed to run the ball and hold onto the lead. But the fact remains that The Lions have a poor defense, and like The Browns, Cincinnati has a very good defense. Here we also get a better offense in The Bengals, led by a better quarterback with better weapons. The Lions have been outstatted in their last 3-games and we feel due to last week's results on the scoreboard, we're getting some line value with a field goal. Finally.. The Bengals have owned The Lions, going 4-and-0 SUATS in this match up since 1984. Let's make that 5-and-0 today in The Motor City as we back the better team and the better defense, getting points.
Sean Michaels
Jake Locker will reportedly make an early return from a hip injury that cost him two games to start at quarterback for Tennessee against San Francisco (-3') today at home.
It won't matter for the Titans.
San Francisco has bounced back from consecutive losses to Seattle and Indianapolis with three straight wins, beating the Rams (35-11) in St. Louis and the Texans (34-3) and Cardinals (32-20) at home. Frank Gore has rebounded from a slow start to run for 335 yards in those victories.
Tennessee covered in a loss at Seattle last week, but the Titans were outgained 404-223 in a physical game. Running back Chris Johnson (3.1 ypc this year) continued to struggle with just 33 yards on the ground.
The 49ers are 8-2 SU and ATS outside of the NFC West since Jim Harbaugh arrived. They're 21-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games laying points. And today they're a bargain-basement price at anything less than a touchdown.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Craig Davis
Today's free play of the day is on the Baltimore Ravens plus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field.
The points are simply too good to not take, as I don't believe there are many teams that can continually play well vs. the Steelers like the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens have won or lost games by three points or less in an amazing eight of its last nine meetings with the Steelers.
Baltimore has also won three of the last four meetings with Pittsburgh, including two straight in the friendly confines of Heinz Field.
Granted, these two teams are quite different from what they looked like the last two years, but some things don't change and that's the fact that Baltimore just seems to have Pittsburgh's number.
Something else I like is the fact the dog is a whopping 8-3-2 ATS over their last 13 matchups while the road team is 5-2-2 ATS over the last nine meetings.
True, Pittsburgh finally broke into the win column last week with a solid win over the NY Jets... but they're also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
The Ravens are a great team under John Harbaugh when giving or getting three points or less... and that's what we have today. Take Baltimore plus the number as your free play of the day.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie will be the Packers minus the points over the Browns.
Cleveland had some mojo working with Hoyer at quarterback, but last week it was back to Brandon Weeden starting and with it came Cleveland's third straight loss both straight up and against the spread.
Cannot expect a miracle today at Lambeau Field, as Green Bay (playoffs included) has won 10 in a row in their back yard, and they have covered the spread in each of their last 7 played in front of the home crowd.
Both home wins this season for the Pack have come by double-digits, and they are catching the Brownies after Cleveland just played their last 3 games at Browns Stadium.
I get the feeling this game is going to end up as another double-digit home win for Green Bay.
Move the winning streak at Lambeau to 11 in a row, with 8 straight covers.
3♦ GREEN BAY
Brad Wilton
My free play for Week Seven is the Over in Cincinnati-Detroit.
The Lions and the Over at Ford Field is normally a winning equation, and I feel it will be again today when the Bengals come a-callin'.
Detroit has played a pair of home games this season, and they have put up a total of 74 points in playing a pair of Overs against Minnesota and Chicago.
That makes 7 of their last 10 games played in front of the home crowd having played Over the total. The Lions have also been Over the total in 2 of their last 3 games overall, while the visiting Bengals come in off an Over contest on the road against the Buffalo Bills, as Cincy won a 27-24 overtime thriller.
If the Bengals are going to be in this contest, they are going to have to keep pace on the scoreboard, and I am feeling a high-scoring game brewing in this Week Seven interconference clash.
Lions-Bengals Over the total.
2♦ CINCINNATI-DETROIT OVER
Brett Atkins
My free play for Sunday is on the Kansas City Chiefs, as their defense will prove to be too much for the Houston Texans, and ultimately, a message will be sent to the Denver Broncos for their late game. Coach Andy Reid thinks big picture, he always has. And while he knows the task at hand is to defeat visiting Houston, he also knows there's an eventual meeting with Denver down the road, and with a convincing win here, the Broncos will have added pressure for their game in Indianapolis.
So what to expect on the field?
The turnover-prone Texans will be riddled with mistakes in this game, as they're going to be smack-dab in the middle of one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, against one of the most formidable defensive units. Houston has turned the ball over 15 times, and its minus-12 turnover differential is second only to the New York Giants for worst in the NFL.
On the flipside, the Chiefs are plus-12, a full 24 possessions better than the Texans, and boast an NFL-leading 18 takeaways during their 6-0 start. And make note, the Chiefs have returned three interceptions for touchdowns this season. The Chiefs recorded nine sacks last week against Oakland, so I suspect we're going to see heavy pressure on untested quarterback Case Keenum, who gets the start for Houston with Matt Schaub sidelined because of an ankle injury.
Play the Chiefs, as the defense leads the charge in this one.
1♦ KANSAS CITY
Chris Jordan
My free play for today is on the New York Jets in their AFC East clash with the New England Patriots, as I think the home pup will be barking loudly and could take a big bite out of Bill Belichick's boys.
The first time these two met, the Patriots were at home and escaped with a 13-10 win. That was Week 2, when Geno Smith was still green. He threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter, including one in the final moments that sealed the victory for the Patriots.
Now, with Smith coming off a horrendous performance against a Pittsburgh team that was destined to win its first game, I think we could be in store for an entertaining clash. Trust me, I know Smith's rookie season has been a roller-coaster ride thus far, as one moment he's showing us flashes of brilliance - like on Monday Night Football against Atlanta with a turnover-free display that included three touchdown passes - and other moments he's looking like that Week 2 rookie QB - like last week against the Steelers, who picked him off twice.
This one is at home, and it arguably is the most important game, one that could be pivotal toward the rest of the season. The Jets (3-3) are two games behind the Patriots (5-1) and it'll take one win to change the complexion of the AFC East.
I'm taking my chances with the home pup in this one.
1♦ N.Y. JETS
Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday is on the Jacksonville Jaguars, taking the points from the San Diego Chargers, who travel east of the Mississippi River for the third time this season, and could be in trouble in a trap game this week. I'd be really worried if I were a Chargers fan. This is one of those weeks when Chargers fans unload in their suicide pool and make their first and only bets of the season on their beloved Bolts.
And this is the one Sunday the Jaguars pull off the unthinkable.
Remember, the Chargers are in after a 19-9 win over Indianapolis on Monday night, and had to fly cross-country on short rest. Plus, they'll playing a 10 a.m. kickoff, rather than the 1 p.m. kick they're used to, unless they're playing on primetime game.
To top it off, and adding to the lookahead factor, the Chargers could be looking forward to next week's bye, rather than focusing on a Jaguars team that hung with the Broncos for a spell last week.
Making matters worse for quarterback Philip Rivers, left guard Chad Rinehart has been ruled out. For the second week in a row, he will be replaced by rookie Johnnie Troutman, who was called for two false start penalties on Monday versus the Colts. Now just because the Chargers beat the Colts, it doesn't mean Troutman will be effective on the road against a hungry Jags team.
Jacksonville actually has the 14th-best passing defense and could be extremely dangerous for San Diego today. I'm taking the home underdog.
4♦ JACKSONVILLE