Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Denver/ Indianapolis Over 56.5: Punters take the night off. This one has the makings of a special high scoring game that could put up 70+ points and here is a nice trend to indicate that. The last 13 times that the Broncos are off a game in which they scored at least a TD less than their season to date average the ver is 13-0 in the next game and it has over by 14.6 ppg. That would put us in the 70s here. Still, that trend aside, we have the Broncos, who come in with the top rated pass offense in the league, while their pass defense is rated as the worst in the league. the Broncos average 8.9 yards per attempt, while they give up 8.1 ypa. The Colt offense is 23rd in passing, but Andrew Luck is more than capable of putting up big yards on this defense, especially if a very poor Jags passing offense put up 291 yards on this Broncos defense last year. The Colts will also have to pass if they expect to have any chance of winning this game. They will need to match the Broncos point for point. This should be an exciting game with very little defense, as we get a 38-31 type final.
3 UNIT PLAYS
PHILADELPHIA -2.5 over Dallas: Dallas is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a SU win and 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games versus conference opponents. This is not a good spot for the Cowboys, especially with losing both Ware (Possibly0 and Murray and taking on a surging Philly team that has revenge on their minds after losing both games to Dallas last year. Chip Kelly has been slowly making adjustments to his offense and it has helped, plus I feel that having Foles back their will also help stabilize this offense. His is a bit less mobile, but also a bit less of a turnover risk. The Dallas offense is strong, but the Eagles are starting to show signs of improving on the defensive side of the ball. The Dallas defense is a mess as it is and will only get worse without Ware in there. The Eagles have the offense and with an improved defense should win this one by at least a TD over a banged up Dallas squad.
San Diego/ Jacksonville Over 45: The Jags can't stop the run and that will allow San Diego to pound the pball in there and then have some easy shots downfield to set up some easy scores. The Charger defense is very poor vs the the pass and with Chad Henne back there and Justin Blackmon emerging as one of the better receivers in the League I expect them to be able to put up some good yards and points vs a Bolts defense that really played way above their heads last week. Let's also note that when West teams travel east and are road favorites of 6 or more and the OU line is 40 or more the OVER is 11-1 since 1992, plus the OVER is 14-2, the last 5 years, when AFC West teams are road favs vs a non-division team and the OU line more than 43. This one feels like a 31-24 type game.
2 UNIT PLAY
New England -3.5 over NY JETS: The Jets nearly beat the Pats in Foxboro and that should have them fully focused for this one. I also expect the pats to be riding the momentum from last week huge comeback win. the Patriot offense just got healthier as Gronk has been cleared to play and that should really open the passing game for the Patriots here. Geno Smith had a good game vs the Pats in the earlier meeting this year, but I look for Belichick to devise a plan to stop him now that there is more film on him. Smith has some problems reading defenses and the Pats will have a complicated one for him here. The Jets had a rough game last week vs the Steelers as they really played like most of us thought they would this year. The Steeler defense had good success vs Smith and so will the Patriots here. I look for New England to win this one by at least a TD.
1 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ Carolina Under 42.5: Both teams are off a win of 21 or more as a road dog in their last game and teams in this spot have gone 14-0 to the Under the last 4 years. Neither offense has looked all that good this year and the Carolina defense is very tough. Hard to see more than 38 in this one.
Top 5 Power Angles For Today (10-5)
Miami is 3-19 ATS as home favorites when they have a win pct of .454 or better on the year. Play Buffalo +7
San Diego is 22-3-1 ATS all-time vs the AFC South. Play San Diego -7
Atlanta coach Mike Smith is 16-1 ATS off a SU loss of 6 or more. Play Atlanta -6.5
The St Louis Rams have gone 18-2 to the UNDER before playing a divisional home game. Play St Louis/ Carolina Under 42.5
The Dallas Cowboys are 4-21 ATS on the road after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. Play Philadelphia -2.5
Charlie Sports
Tampa Bay +7
The 0-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the NFC South divsion will take on the 1-4 Atlanta Falcons of the NFC South division in 2013 NFL. Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS vs. A team with a losing record. The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Atlanta. The is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The Real Animal
New England -3.5
I miss the good old days when you could buy a half-point down to -120 no matter if it was off 3 or 7. But the crooks of the industry (offshore houses) did away with that years ago and the locals have all followed suit. I can’t get past Brady vs. Geno. The Jets are still very limited with weapons at both the running back and receiver position. They’ve been kind of overrated in Vegas since their Monday upset in Atlanta. But the Falcons (1-4) were very beat up for that game. New York doesn’t’ have the run game to take advantage of the Vince Wilfork injury averaging just 115 yards a game. The Jets outgained the Pats in the first meeting. I think it’s unlikely that occurs again now that Coach Belichick has had a chance to see Geno. Plus New York is without wide receivers Santonio Holmes and Clyde Gates along with tight end Kellen Winslow. Defensively the Jets are exceptional in the front seven, but who better to exploit the weak and bruised secondary than Brady with Gronkowski back. The only thing that bothers me here is the Pats are really beat up on defense too with Jerod Mayo (#1 tackler with 55) now sidelined plus top corner Aquib Talib is questionable. Defensive tackle Tommy Kelly was listed as doubtful on Friday. On offense Danny Amendola once again is hurt and not expected to play. Both teams are severely hampered. But I like the fact Belichick is 6-0 the last six regular-season meetings with Rex Ryan and in the end it’s Brady vs Geno. Brady beat Rex’s brother Rob in the final two minutes last week and he should make it 2-for-2. I was very impressed with Stevan Ridley last week and another performance like that will make it much easier for Brady and company. Pats are 12-2 ATS the last 14 meetings in this series. The Jets have scored less than 20-points in 10 of their last dozen.
ASA
Cleveland Browns (+) over Green Bay Packers
We will play on the Cleveland Browns plus the points over the host Green Bay Packers. The line on this game is currently Packers -10.5-points which is too many in our opinion. Green Bay's offense is clearly not at peak performance right now and won't be until they get healthy. They struggled in two wins against Detroit at home and on the road in Baltimore when they managed just 22 points against the Lions and 19 versus the Ravens. Those numbers for the Packer came against two defenses that aren't as good as the stop-unit they'll face this Sunday at Lambeau. Cleveland is 11th in the NFL in scoring defense, 7th in yards allowed per game and 1st in yards per play defense allowing just 4.4 yppl. By comparison the Ravens and Lions defense (who Green Bay managed 22 & 19 points respectively) are both in the bottom half of the NFL in YPPL at 5.4 or greater. The point we're trying to make here is this: How do the Packers cover a double digit spread when they'll probably score 24 or less points here. Cleveland has allowed 24 or less points in 4 of their six games this season. The Browns have clearly not been an offensive juggernaut this season but they should score points here against an average Packer defense that is 18th in the NFL in total defense, 24th in yards per play defense allowing 5.9 yppl and 16th in the NFL in points allowed per game at 22.8. The Packers are a MASH unit right now missing several wide receivers and their best defensive player Clay Mathews. Green Bay wins this game but doesn't cover the inflated number. Grab the points.
John Ryan
Texans at Chiefs
Play: Over
The simulator shows a high probability that more than 42 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-10 'mark for 79.2% winners since 2007. Play 'OVER' with road teams against the total (HOUSTON) that are off an upset loss as a home favorite with the game taking place in the first half of the season. Houston is off a disgraceful home loss last week and embarrassed themselves as a fan base by cheering when Texans QB was taken off the field due to injury. Well, the best thing for this entire team is get away from home and this road trip to KC may be the perfect remedy. I don't see Houston winning the game, but I do expect them to push KC and not just roll over. Head Coach Kubiak is a solid 20-8 OVER (+11.2 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points as the coach of the Texans. The OL has gotten a ton of blame for the poor QB play of Shaub and Yates that ranks 31st in the league in pass blocking. However, the combined efforts of Shaub and Yates would rank 37th out of 38 QB this season. So, enter the unproven Casey Keenum to lead this team today as starting QB. Although the KC offense has struggled to 30th rank in pass grading, they will be able to move the ball effectively today. Moreover, the stifling KC defense will not be forced to play aggressively to make up for the offensive struggles. I expect KC to play a far more conservative defensive scheme and allow Kennum to make plays in 'under-man' and under-zone' coverages. KC has the best DE duo in the league in Hall and Houston and they alone will get enough pressure on Keenum. HC Andy Ried knows he has a strong running attack behind Charles and can play this game to minimize mistakes and turnovers. but still move the offense and score points. It also stands to reason that Keenum will make mistakes in his first start against the League's best overall defense and this gives KC short field opportunities to score. Take the 'OVER'
Joe Gavazzi
New York Jets +3.5
In this matchup, New England is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS; that includes week 2 when the New England defense goaded rookie QB Smith into 3 INTs resulting in a narrow 13-10 New England victory. QB Brady continues to struggle with his new receivers, completing just 57% for 5.7 YPA. He will miss WR Amendola this weekend and has no assurance that Gronk will return. Thus, the 5-1 SU mark is the result of a bend but dont break defense, allowing just 16 PPG. Last week, they survived New Orleans, 30-27, winning on experience. Earlier in the day, the Jets had a downer following their MNF upset of Atlanta. It resulted in the Steelers first victory of the season. Weakest of votes favors the defense of the Jets, which allows just 76/3.0 overland, 304 total yards, and 4.9 YP play. Those kinds of numbers and a -16 net TO margin differential are working in their favor. The avenging home dog is the value side in this one.