Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 21

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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So now is everybody ready to hop on the train they call the city of New Orleans? It's been a southbound odyssey and a graveyard for players in 2012, for sure. With a week to recoup, and off their first win and cover of the season, the Saints journey into Tampa with renewed hope. The problem is the defense is still the same as it has been the past two seasons downright rotten, and getting worse. Case in point: these two clubs have squared off against three common opponents in 2012, namely Carolina, Kansas City and Washington. The Bucs allowed 1,035 yards in the three tilts; the Saints 1,437. Adding to the dilemma is New Orleans? 1-7 ATS record in the first of back-to-back conference road games, and Tampa's 7-0 ATS dog log in games after scoring 28 or more points in its last contest. Hmmm. Our money is on the Bucs. And you can rest assured we?ll be gone five hundred miles when the day is done. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars
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Jacksonville hits the road after two straight blowout losses at home and a bye week last week. This is a good thing. The Jaguars have performed miserably at home but they have done much better on the highway, winning once at Indianapolis and losing in overtime at Minnesota. The trip west is not a big deal because they had the week off so any travel disadvantage is negated. Going back to last season, the Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Raiders are also off to a 1-4 start following their loss at Atlanta last week. A loss is a loss but this one was a devastating one as Oakland put everything it had into that game and should have walked out with a victory. Instead, Atlanta is still undefeated despite getting outgained by 188 total yards. It will be tough for the Raiders to recover from that especially with a divisional game on deck. They won their last home game against the Steelers but it was handed to them as Oakland was outgained by 112 total yards. The Jaguars offense is again not very productive but they should be able to have some success here. Oakland's defense was outstanding last week against the Falcons as they allowed just 286 total yards but I do not expect a repeat because despite that solid effort, the defense is still ranked 24th in the NFL. For the Jaguars, Maurice Jones-Drew is still very effective having already accumulated 408 yards rushing on 84 carries (4.9 ypc) and he is in line for another big day which sets up the passing game. Last season the Jacksonville defense finished sixth in the NFL in total yards but has dropped to 29th this season. Jaguars defensive coordinator Mel Tucker said he hasn't seen signs of losing hope. "Guys are very upbeat every day and very, very competitive," he said. "We've got a lot of pride. We know what we need to do to improve and then the focus is on that every day." They have been banged up but the week off helped and while linebacker Daryl Smith will not be back as expected, they will be in better shape. As we saw last week, Oakland tends to play up to the competition but it also plays down to the competition as you can see by the Raiders going 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games against teams that are getting outscored by 10 ppg or more. The Jaguars fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging 260 or fewer total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) since 1983.

Bryan PowerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee vs. Buffalo
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Somehow, against all odds, the Bills find themselves in a four-way tie for first place in the AFC East. They have the same record (3-3) as the Patriots and Jets, both of whom destroyed them. It was just two weeks ago that they were humiliated in San Francisco, losing to the 49ers 45-3. It was the third time already this season that the Bills D has surrendered 45 or more points & they have a point differential of -55 entering Week 7, ranking among the league's worst.
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That all being said, I'm recommending a small wager on the Bills this week. How could this be, you ask? Well, they are at home hosting a Tennessee Titans squad that is one of the few teams in the league with a worse point differential than Buffalo. In fact, the Titans point differential of -90 is a NFL worst. I did successfully play the Titans in the 1st half last Thursday against the Steelers, and somehow they would go on to win the game. However, so far this season we've seen only one team come off a Thursday win and be victorious the following week. That would be Baltimore, who only won by a pedestrian 9-6 margin over Kansas City, a non-cover.
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The Bills have lost four consecutive meetings with the Titans, their last win coming all the way back in 2000 when they had big time revenge for the famed "Music City Miracle" playoff game. Buffalo impressed me last week when they went to Arizona and pulled off an outright win in overtime after seemingly have everything go against them in overtime. Look for them to make it back to back wins Sunday.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. Indianapolis
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Browns are 1-5 SU and 3-2-1 ATS; last week they finally got off the schneid and beat Cincinnati 34-24 as 1-point underdogs.
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Rookie QB Branden Weeden had his best game of the year. Weeden had 231 yards, and two TDs:
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"We're scoring a lot points, our defense is playing well, offensively we're starting to click and mesh," said Weeden after. " ... We've got a long ways to go, but we're on the right track."
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Defensively the team looked sharp, effectively grounding Dalton and Green.
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Note that Cleveland is 9-8 ATS its last 17 road contests.
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The Colts are 2-3 SU/ATS; after a thrilling come from behind 30-27 win over the Packers, Indianapolis looked pretty horrible in its 35-9 loss to the Jets last week as 3.5-point underdogs.
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Rookie QB Andrew Luck had his worst game of the year. He was 22 of 44 for 280 yards, no TDs and two INTs; he also lost a fumble.
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Defensively the team has been hit and miss. It's been good against the pass, but has been brutal vs. the run for the most part.
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Already 0-1 ATS this year as a favorite, the Colts are 0-4 ATS in the same position over the last two.
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I believe these teams are moving in opposite directions. The Browns got one big monkey off their collective backs last week with the victory. They have a huge opportunity to get another one off with a road victory.
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Consider a second look at the visitors in this matchup!

SPORTS WAGERS
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Washington +6½ -108 over N.Y. GIANTS
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This is a typical situation where the Giants have been known to take the day off. The reigning Super Bowl champs were looking weak when they were 2-2 coming off a loss to the Eagles. After bombing the Browns and then crushing the 49ers, the Giants’ stock is once again on the rise and that has proven to be the best time to wager against them. That’s substantiated with just seven covers in New York’s past 24 as home faves.
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Redskins swept this series last year, 28-14 at home and 23-10 in New York. ‘Skins are an improved club this time around and always seem to catch the G-Men at right time, with this one sandwiched between San Fran and Dallas. The Giants' biggest weakness has been defending the run and that will be exactly where the Skins will be attacking, if only to keep Manning off the field. We've seen this many times before where the Giants aren't their sharpest and spend much of the afternoon trying to overcome an apathetic effort and that's hardly a situation to be spotting these kind of points.
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NEW ENGLAND -10½ -104 over N.Y. Jets
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As if the Patriots needed more incentive to lay a beating on this feeble and despised visitor. New England is smarting after gifting Seattle a game that the Pats dominated. New England won both meetings last year by a combined 30 points. This Jets unit is weaker than the 2011 edition.
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Mark Sanchez and his troops have the 30th ranked passing game. They average less than 300 yards of offense per game leaving them ahead of only Jacksonville and Arizona. That means plenty of three and outs for the Jets. With the Patriots averaging a league best 81 plays on offense per game, expect plenty of scoring opportunities. Should they cash them in, this one could get out of hand in a hurry and Bill Belichick will not let up against his blowhard counterpart.
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The Jets have been a bit better after a stretch when it looked like the worst was yet to come but they still rank among the bottom dwellers despite their .500 mark. Tom Brady and gang are No. 1 in the league, averaging 445 yards per game. Double-digit faves can be risky but situation and résumés align here.
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Arizona +6½ -101 over MINNESOTA
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Gotta love these overreaction opportunities. Ask yourself what the line would have been had Arizona not lost to the Bills? Three, maybe 3½? The Cardinals were a 5-point choice over Buffalo and after an overtime loss, they’ve become a 6½-pt dog to the Vikings? Huh? Granted, Minnesota is an improved squad over last year’s edition but not that improved.
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Arizona is back where it is best, taking points. The Cards have been underdogs three times this season and covered each time. They were favored in other three games and failed to cash a ticket. Both of these teams are dangerous as dogs, not giving away points and that is clear to see when 11 of their combined 12 games has paid the underdog. The Vikings will get after John Skelton while the Cardinals will play defense and clock manage. Let’s not forget that Skeleton won the starting job over Kevin Kolb before being injured and that he’s 8-4 as a starter. Look for a low-scorer and a closely fought battle where the points offered leave us plenty of room.
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CINCINNATI +106 over Pittsburgh
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This number represents the past, not the current product on the field. This is not your dad’s or even your big brother’s Steelers. This is an aging and battered bunch that is barely getting by. Oddsmakers factor in the public’s fondness of Pittsburgh. It’s no wonder that the Steelers have covered just one game this season as they continue to be mispriced and the linemakers extort your emotions to drain your bank account.
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The Bengals have dropped a pair but they have enough skill in their passing game and an unsuspecting pass rush that can disrupt Pittsburgh’s throwing game. Andy Dalton has been highly productive with four of his last five games containing three touchdowns and passing for more than 310 yards three times. Don’t concern yourself with Cinci’s loss last week to Cleveland, as this could have been the game on their minds.
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The Steelers have already lost road games in Oakland and Tennessee. Injuries remain a concern, primarily on the offensive line where starters Maurkice Pouncey and Marcus Gilbert are both sidelined and a 2nd round rookie will start. Pittsburgh’s two wins were against the Jets and Eagles. Against Philly, they had no right winning, as Michael Vick fumbled twice inside the Steelers' 10-yard line. Really, should the Steelers be favored here? We think not.

SPORTS WAGERS
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ST. LOUIS +5½ -105 over Green Bay
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Packers lose to the Colts and everyone abandons the bandwagon. A Sunday night upset over the substantially favored Texans and everybody hops right back on. Well, buckle up. Green Bay ecstatic after said win but now must close out a three-game road trip against a St. Louis squad that has fought in all games but one and could easily be 5-1.
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Rams have been a tough out on their own turf with a perfect 3-0 mark, including visits by divisional opponents Seattle and Arizona. Despite the lack of top level receivers, Sam Bradford continues to impress and it’s no coincidence that the addition of another offensive threat, RB Daryl Richardson, has aided Bradford’s offensive production. Packers were favoured in two of their three road games this season and failed to cover in both Indy and Seattle. A similar fate would not surprise us here. No units risked.
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INDIANAPOLIS -2½ -106 over Cleveland
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Both teams have defensive problems but the Browns have allowed multiple touchdowns to every quarterback they have faced. Four of those topped 300 yards against them and Andrew Luck figures to be another one.
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Indy clearly got caught up in emotional high of defeating the Packers, only to take last week off when allowing the Jets to appear formidable. Expect the Colts to hunker down here after that effort while the Browns may fall victim to similar circumstances after getting its first win over Ohio rival Bengals. No units risked.
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BUFFALO -3½ +100 over Tennessee
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Never quite anxious to spot points with a team as defensively liable as the Bills but we can make an exception when the opposing defense is worse. Tennessee has given up the most points in the NFL, averaging 34 against per game. Its only win came against Steelers when they somehow managed to score 10 points in the final four minutes. They’re 0-3 on the road, where they have not scored a single rushing TD. They’re also in a letdown spot after that big win on a national stage over the Steelers.
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After getting violated by the 49ers in Week 5 by a 45-3 count, the Bills bounced back with an upset overtime win in Arizona. Bills are now home after two away and in good mental state after that upset. At 3-3 and tied with every team in division, the Bills are right in the thick of the AFC East. Focus should be sharp this week with perhaps their softest match-up left on the schedule and a bye week waiting on the other side. No units risked.
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HOUSTON -6½ -108 over Baltimore
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Remarkably, this duo remains the only two teams in the AFC with winning records. The point-spread suggests that Houston’s record is more legit and we couldn’t agree more. Baltimore has won four straight over New England, Cleveland, Kansas City and Dallas. One could argue they were the second best team on the field in all four games and could have just as easily lost all four. Against the Chiefs, a team that everyone is feasting off of, the Ravens managed to score three field goals. Baltimore’s margin of victory in those four games combined was 12 points.
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Baltimore is no longer the defensive powerhouse they once were. They suffered some crippling injuries to two key defensive players (Lardarius Webb and Ray Lewis). The Ravens were already weaker against the run before losing Webb and Lewis, having allowed 216 rush yards to the Cowboys and 200 rush yards to the Chiefs the week before. The Texans can take advantage of that with star RB Adrian Foster while having the defensive personnel to negate Baltimore’s offense. After that crushing defeat by the Packers that knocked them off their unbeaten perch, Texans figure to respond in a big way. No units risked.
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CAROLINA +2 -105 over Dallas
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Do we trust the underachieving Cowboys, three covers in past 12 as chalk, or the spiralling Panthers off a three-game skid? Other than Carolina’s stinker vs. Giants, it has competed in every game including unfathomable loss in Atlanta.
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The Cowboys got their offense back to scoring against the Ravens but were doomed by special teams, bad clock management and just the general bad mojo that usually keeps them from winning. That was a heartbreaking loss. They had that game won several times. Instead of storming off the field in anger, Tony Romo and Felix Jones were seen at midfield after the game hugging, laughing and joking with Baltimore players. Losing has become acceptable by the aforementioned “leaders” and it cascades down from there. Also note that the ‘Boys have Giants on deck and they’ve failed to win or cover previous four games in week prior to facing G-Men. No units risked.
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TAMPA BAY +2½ -110 over New Orleans
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Saints off the schneid but lose some style points for their comeback win after Broncos overcame a bigger deficit to also stun the Chargers. In New Orleans’ win, the Bolts actually outgained the Saints. New Orleans’ defense is abysmal, having given up 30 points a game (dead last in the league).
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Tampa appeared efficient after returning from bye and with their league leading 13.4 yards per reception facing a weak New Orleans pass defense. In this contest last season, when the Saints were intact and a much better squad, the Bucs managed a 26-20 win. Under current conditions and the direction that both these clubs are headed, we’ll gladly endorse home side taking any points offered. No units risked.
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Jacksonville +4 -106 over OAKLAND
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If there is a good thing about the Jaguars, it’s that their indifferent fans make home and away games basically the same. Check that, road games may actually be preferred as the Jags have yet to win at home while away games have been competitive. In its two road contests, Jacksonville lost opener in Minnesota in OT before taking one from Colts in Indianapolis.
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The Raiders are an opponent that suits Jacksonville’s situation. Their secondary is one that leaves much to be desired. Opposing QB’s are completing passes at an alarmingly high 70.2%. Only Tennessee is worse. Blaine Gabbert and the Jags have had an extra week to work on their passing game. A case for the Raiders can be made when taking points but Oakland can’t be trusted spotting home points with just four covers in past 20 attempts. Not exactly a marquee game but one where taking the points is the prudent position. No units risked.

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Jacksonville +4.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jacksonville Jaguars have had some time to regroup as they come off their bye week. They have played an absolutely brutal schedule to this point as four of the five teams they've faced have a .500 record or better. The other was the Indianapolis Colts, who the Jaguars beat for their lone win in a 1-4 start. Now, they finally get another break in their schedule against the Oakland Raiders this week, another 1-4 team. Oakland should not be favored by 4.5 points here, and I'll gladly side with the value and back the bye team. In fact, teams coming off a bye are a sensational 5-1 ATS this season. The only loser was the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 2-point victory over the Philadelphia Eagles as a 3-point favorite. Oakland has only played one team that currently has a winning record during its 1-4 start. Jacksonville is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Oakland, winning all four by 7 points or more. It's safe to say that the Jaguars have the Raiders' number. Oakland is 17-38-1 ATS in its last 56 vs. a team with a losing record. The Raiders are 1-12 ATS vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. Take the Jaguars and the points.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo Bills -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Buffalo Bills are showing solid value as only a 3-point home favorite over the Tennessee Titans Sunday. You may have to lay a little extra juice to get this 3-point spread, but it should be well worth it.
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Buffalo sits atied the top of the AFC East division at 3-3 this season. I believe this team is about right in the middle of the pack talent-wise, and it's nice to see both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller healthy. This team still hasn't reached its potential, but its in a good position to make a run at the playoffs going forward.
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The Tennessee Titans are just 2-4 on the season with a couple of fortunate 3-point victories. This is a team that I would rank in the bottom 5 of the league talent-wise, and it's one that certainly will not be competing for a playoff spot. The Titans are getting too much respect for their win over the Steelers last week in a game that Pittsburgh simply gave away.
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Jake Locker is listed as doubtful Sunday and is unlikely to play for a third straight week. That leaves the Titans with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, which is certainly not good news for them. This is a much more effective team offensively with Locker under center because of his ability to make plays with his feet.
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Tennessee is 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscoring 10.3 to 35.3, or by an average of 25.0 points/game. It lost by 28 points at San Diego, 24 at Houston and 23 at Minnesota. While I'm not expecting another 20-plus point blowout here, I do fully expect the Bills to win by 4 points or more Sunday.
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Buffalo is 7-0 ATS after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. The Bills are 30-10 ATS after a win by 3 or less points since 1992. The Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Tennessee is 4-22-1 ATS in its last 27 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
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It's also worth noting that Chan Gailey is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games in all games he has coached. Bet the Bills Sunday.

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New England Patriots -10.5
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After blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in Seattle last week, the Patriots will be extremely hungry when they take the field Sunday afternoon.
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The Patriots have been an awesome investment in bounce-back spots as they are on a 28-10-1 ATS run in their last 39 games following a loss. Under Bill Belichick, they are 11-3 ATS following a defeat of three points or less. They have won by an average score of 31.4 to 15.7 in this situation.
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New York's wins have come against the Bills, Dolphins and Colts - teams that didn't make the playoffs last season. Its losses have come by an average 19.0 points to the Steelers, 49ers and Texans - teams that made the postseason a year ago.
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The Jets played the Texans to a six-point game at home but were outgained by nearly 100 yards and trailed by as many as 13 points. They were defeated 27-10 by Pittsburgh and 34-0 by San Francisco. New England is certainly capable of blowing out the Jets as well. The Pats won last season's two meetings by an average of 15.0 points.
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New England ranks No. 1 in the NFL in both scoring and total offense with 31.3 points and 445.3 yards per game. The New York offense has been anemic. It ranks 29th in total offense with 295.5 yards per game and 20th in scoring with 22.2 points per game. I don't see the Jets having enough offense to keep up.
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Peyton Manning played a nearly flawless game in New England and the Pats still beat the Broncos by 10 points. New York won't get even close to that kind of performance from Mark Sanchez.
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The Jets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. We'll lay the points.

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Green Bay Packers vs. St Louis Rams
Play: Green Bay PackersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pack is back, or at least their offense is. They've put up their 3 highest point totals of the season the last 3 weeks, scoring 28, 27 and 42 points. During last Sunday's 42-24 win at Houston, Packers QB Rodgers completed 24 of 37 passes for 338 yards and tossed 6 TD passes against a stingy Texans defensive unit that had held 4 of their first 5 opponents to 17 points or less (Avg 19 PPG). While they play their third straight game on the road, this Packers offense has found it's rhythm and expect another Playoff-caliber effort against a Rams defense they easily handled, 24-3, when they met last year. Must back an improving Packer squad as road favorites knowing they're 11-2 ATS following a road win and QB Rodgers is 27-15 ATS in his career against teams he beat in their previous meeting.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
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Baltimore's stop unit has been their savior over the last few years but this season, they are allowing 21.0 PPG and seem to be worsening as they gave up 29 to a hurting Dallas squad LW. The team has won 4 games in a row by a combined 13 points and have not covered since September 16th. Overall, the Ravens defense is yielding 380 YPG. Over the L2 conests, they have yielded 441 yards on the ground. In walks Arian Foster. The RB is #2 in the NFL with 561 YR and leads the league in scoring with 8 TDs. On "D", Baltimore is already missing their best pass-rusher in Suggs and just lost their best DB, Webb, and captain, Lewis. Houston looked bad LW as they suffered their first loss of the season to Green Bay. Last year, they dropped both meetings against Baltimore, including a January playoff matchup. Matt Schaub leads one of the NFLs most well-balanced offenses that will exploit the Ravens weaknesses here. On "D", the Texans, Watt has amassed 10 1/2 sacks already. The outstanding pass rusher will add to those numbers in this meeting. The Texans are 5-0-1 ATS their L6 games played vs. teams with a winning record, 6-1-1 ATS their L8 games played vs. the AFC, and 12-4-2 ATS their L18 overall games. Take Houston.

NFL Betting Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars +4

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a bye week after starting the season 1-4, including 0-3 at home. The Jaguars have lost to Minnesota, Houston, Cincinnati, and Chicago and beaten Indianapolis 22-17. Against the spread the Jags are 2-3, with both of those wins coming on the road. In Week 1 the Jaguars lost 26-23 in overtime to Minnesota as 3.5 point underdogs, and in Week 3 they beat the Colts 22-17 as 3 point underdogs. The Oakland Raiders are also 1-4 on the year, and 1-1 at home. They've lost to San Diego, Miami, Denver and Atlanta last week, and they beat Pittsburgh 34-31 as 3.5 point underdogs. The Raiders are 2-3 ATS, and 0-2 ATS as favorites. Last year the Raiders were 2-3 ATS as favorites, and 3-4-1 ATS at home. Oakland almost upset the Falcons last week as 9.5 point underdogs, as they forced Matt Ryan to throw three interceptions. This game features two struggling offenses as the Jaguars are dead last in the league with 241 yards per game, while Oakland is 19th with 349 yards per game. Oakland is averaging just 17.4 points per game (29th) while Jacksonville is averaging 13 PPG (32nd). Outside of the game vs Pittsburgh where Oakland scored 34 points they've scored just 53 points or 13.25 per game. Defensively both teams are struggling as well with Oakland ranked 24th giving up 386 yards against per game and Jacksonville 29th giving up 424 yards per game. The Raiders are giving up two more points against per game than the Jaguars at 29.6 per game (28th in the NFL). Take note that the Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Raiders are just 17-38-1 ATS vs a team with a losing record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing record. Last year the Jaguars won just 5 games, but one of those was a 17-3 win in Indianapolis after their bye week. With the extra time to prepare I think we see a productive game from Blaine Gabbert and a good game on the ground from Maurice Jones-Drew. After last weeks game in Atlanta the public will probably be all over Oakland at home this weekend against a Jaguars team that hasn't looked good, but I think Jacksonville matches up well with Oakland and will benefit from the bye week. Take Jags +4.

Carolina Panthers +3 (-130)

Dallas is 2-3 on the season with wins coming against the New York Giants and the Buccaneers at home, and losses coming @Seattle, vs Chicago, and @Baltimore. Although their win in New York to kick off the season was impressive the Cowboys haven't done much good since, including losing by 20 and 16 points as 3 point favorites. The Cowboys are 2-3 ATS this year and 0-3 ATS as favorites. Not covering as favorites isn't anything new for Dallas as last season they were 3-8-1 ATS when giving points. The Panthers have opened the season just 1-4 and have failed to meet expectations to date. Losses have come @Tampa Bay, vs NYG, @Atlanta, and vs Seattle, with their lone win coming at home vs New Orleans in Week 2. The Panthers are 2-3 ATS this year, but a perfect 2-0 ATS in games that they've been labeled the underdog. They were 3 point underdogs at home vs New Orleans winning 35-27, and they were 7 point underdogs in Atlanta losing by just 2 points and nearly winning the game outright. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS as home underdogs with Cam Newton as their QB. Despite Dallas giving up a lot fewer yards against per game they are side by side in points against per game with Dallas ranking 20th with 23.8 points against per game and the Panthers 21st with 25. The same thing can be said offensively as the Cowboys have out gained Carolina in yards by a wide margin, but the Cowboys are averaging just 18.8 PPG (24th) and the Panthers are averaging 18.4 PPG (25th). Tony Romo and Cam Newton are both having rough starts to the season, with Romo throwing 7 TDs but 9 INTs with a 82.1 QB Rating and Newton throwing just 4 TDs and 5 INTs with a 80.9 QB Rating. Take note that the Cowboys are coming off an emotional loss as they had their chances to beat a Ravens team that had a banged up defense, but a missed FG lead to a 31-29 loss. Dallas will now be playing back to back road games, while the Panthers enjoyed a Bye Week last week and had the extra time to prepare for a crucial game for themselves. The Cowboys are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs a team with a losing record, and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 vs NFC opponents. Th Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games coming off an ATS loss. Not many people are looking to back the Panthers right now, but as home underdogs coming off a bye week I think they have a good chance at winning outright. 3 is the key number here so shop around for it. If you can't get +3 at -130 I still like +2.5 at -105.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

The New Orleans Saints are 1-4 coming into this game, but despite the poor record they are still getting a lot of support from bettors. New Orleans opened up the season with losses vs Washington, @Carolina, vs Kansas City, and @Green Bay, before beating San Diego last Monday 31-24. The Saints enjoyed a bye week last weekend. New Orleans is 0-2 on the road, 2-3 ATS, and just 1-3 ATS as a favorite.The Buccaneers are 2-3 coming into this game, including a 2-1 home record. Wins at home have come against Carolina and Kansas City, while losses have come @NYG, @Dallas, and vs Washington. As an underdog the Buccaneers are 3-0 ATS and 1-2 straight up (with the win coming as 3 point underdogs and the losses coming as 9 point dogs). Their latest victory came last week at home vs the Chiefs as they won 38-10 as 5 point favorites coming off of a Week 5 Bye. Last week was easily their best game as Freeman threw for 3 TDs, and Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount were productive on the ground. They also held Jamaal Charles to just 40 yards on 12 carries. The New Orleans Saints rank dead last in defense as they've given up an average of 456 yards against per game, while the Buccaneers are 25th giving up 387 yards against per game. The big difference comes with points against per game, as the Buccaneers are 12th allowing just 20.2 ppag while the Saints are 30th allowing 30.8 against. As expected the Saints are still putting up good offensive numbers with 402 yards per game (4th) and 28.2 ppg (8th). The Buccs aren't far behind in scoring averaging 24 ppg (16th). Drew Brees is 13th in QBs with a 90.7 QB Rating, while Josh Freeman is 19th with a 84.2 QB Rating. Take note that the Saints are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs a team with a losing record. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up victory of more than 14 points, and I think last week's big win over Kansas City was big for their confidence levels as a team. It is tough to win games on the road without a good defense and I think we will see that here on Sunday. Note that the Buccaneers beat New Orleans last season at home 26-20 as 6 point underdogs. I also took into consideration that facing a dome team the Buccs will have an advantage playing on grass. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Buccaneers move to 3-3 on Sunday. Take them +3.

Steelers / Bengals Over 45

Pittsburgh enters this all important division Sunday Night Prime Time match up with a 2-3 record, and they are just 0-3 on the road. The Steelers have lost @Denver, @ Oakland, and @Tennessee, with wins vs NYJ and Philadelphia. The only game the Steelers have looked good in was the home game vs the Jets in Week 2. They are just 1-4 ATS and 1-3 ATS as favorites. Last season the Steelers were 5-3 on the road, but just 2-6 ATS on the road. The Steelers last game was in Tennessee where they lost 26-23 as 5.5 point favorites. The Steelers suffered a number of injuries in that game and are banged up on the offensive line and on defense, including their star defensive player in Troy Polamalu. The Bengals are 3-3 on the year as they opened with a loss @Baltimore before going on to win three straight vs Cleveland, @Washington, and @Jacksonville. They have now lost two straight coming into Sunday Night's game vs Miami and @Cleveland last week. Andy Dalton threw 3 INTs last week which was the main cause of the loss to the then 0-5 Browns. The Bengals are 2-3-1 ATS, and 1-1 straight up at home. The Bengals were 4-3-1 ATS as underdogs last season during the regular season, and have started this year off 2-1 ATS as underdogs. Take note that the Bengals rank 10th in the NFL averaging 382 yards per game, while the Steelrs are 16th with 360 ypg. The Bengals are scoring 24.8 PPG while Pittsburgh is scoring 23.2 PPG. Despite being in the top half of the league in yards against per game, both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are giving up quite a bit of PAPG. The Steelers are allowing 23 PAPG (17th) while the Bengals are allowing 27.2 PAPG (22nd). Both QBs have been solid this year, which should help us get OVER the posted total. Ben Roethlisberger is completing 64.6% of his passes with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs for a 99.9 QB Rating, while Andy Dalton is completing 66% of his passes with 12 TDs and 9 INTs for a 91.7 QB Rating. Take note that on the road the Steelers are giving up 30.3 points per game. Last year we saw totals of 41 and 42 between these two teams, but I think these are different teams right now. The Steelers are injured on defense and all around have been soft defensively, while Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have looked like one of the leagues top QB-WR duos. Green ranks 2nd with 6 TDs and 3rd in yards per game as a receiver with 104.7. Take note that the Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 road games, 4-1 in their last 5 vs AFC opponents. The OVER is also 7-2 in the Bengals last 9 home games, 6-2 in their last 8 games overall, and 4-0 in their last 4 divisional games. Although the Steelers have had the Bengals number they haven't looked good this year and are facing a lot of injuries to some key players. Sunday night should be a high scoring and entertaining game, but I think the Bengals should be favored in this one. The line has moved since sending this out, but we got it at +3 -125 and I would recommend trying to get +3 closer to Sunday if you didn't get the wager in. Also take the OVER 45.

DAVID BANKS

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts

The Browns are coming off of their first win of the season 34-24 over the Cincinnati Bengals, although their spirits were dampened somewhat when running back Trent Richardson left the game with a rib injury. Montario Hardesty did rush for 56 yards on 15 carries in relief though, and more importantly, Richardson's injury was not deemed to be serious after the game. The Colts just allowed 161 yards to Shonn Greene of the Jets after he had been averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry entering last week's game. Cleveland can run the ball here vs. a Colts rushing defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry, while the Browns' defense can now defend Andrew Luck better with shutdown cornerback Joe Haden back in the lineup after serving a four-week suspension. The road teams are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings. LEAN: INDIANAPOLIS

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Ravens

The Texans suffered their first loss of the season to the Green Bay Packers Sunday night, and the main reason was their great running game was rendered moot when Green Bay opened up a big lead. Baltimore was probably taking notes as the Ravens have gone to a no-huddle offense this year that is capable of scoring in bunches. The Ravens rank ninth in the NFL in scoring at 26.8 points per game and also ninth in total offense at 385.0 yards per contest. More importantly they have achieved balance with Ray Rice rushing for 482 yards on 5.0 yards per carry. As for the Texans, it is important that they establish Arian Foster and the running game early, although the Baltimore run defense is allowing only 3.9 yards per carry. The road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. LEAN: OVER

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

The Cowboys gave it their all coming out of their bye week in Baltimore last Sunday, but they came up just short in a 31-29 defeat to the Ravens, failing on a two-point conversion after scoring a touchdown with 32 seconds remaining. That drops Dallas to 2-3 on the season, and the Cowboys can ill afford to fall to 2-4 if they want to have any hope of catching the red-hot New York Giants. They now get a chance to exploit a 23rd ranked Carolina total defense that is allowing 377.0 total yards per game. The Panthers are 1-4 as they come off their bye, and Cam Newton has regressed in his second season, throwing five interceptions and just four touchdown passes, and even with two weeks to prepare, he does not figure to have much success vs. the great Dallas cornerback tandem of Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr. Newton completed only 12-of-29 passes for 141 yards vs. Seattle last game, and Carolina is just 1-4 ATS the last five times they passed for less than 150 yards in the previous game. LEAN: DALLAS

New York Jets at New England Patriots

The Patriots unexpectedly fell to 3-3 when they blew a late lead in a 24-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week, thus wasting a 395-yards passing performance by Tom Brady vs. a Seahawk team that still ranks fourth in the NFL in total defense. After that performance in one of the loudest venues in the league, Brady must be looking forward to taking out his frustrations vs. a Jets' defense that is not nearly as formidable as it once was with Darrelle Revis out for the year. The Jets are coming off of a rare 35-9 laugher over the Colts, who seemed emotionally drained after an upset win over the Packers the previous week after learning that Head Coach Chuck Pagano has leukemia. Do not expect running back Shonn Greene to duplicate his 161-yard rushing performance here. Tom Brady is 18-8 ATS when coming off a loss in the last 26 occasions. LEAN: NEW ENGLAND

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders

The Raiders nearly shocked the world last week by knocking off the undefeated Atlanta Falcons, but falling just short 23-20 on a 55-yard Matt Bryant field goal with one second remaining has to be deflating. The loss drops Oakland to 1-4, and the Raiders may have a tough time getting back up for the perceived weaker opponent. And make no mistake, the Jaguars are a week opponent that is also 1-4 and is coming off of a 41-3 loss to the Chicago Bears. That was two weeks ago, so perhaps the bye week last week gave Jacksonville time to prepare a game plan to figure out how to best use stud running back Maurice Jones-Drew vs. a Raiders team that ranks 24th in total defense. Almost unbelievably, the Raiders are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. teams with losing records. LEAN: OVER

Wunderdog

Baltimore at Houston
Pick: Baltimore +7 (-120)

The Houston Texans were exposed big-time last week at home by a top level QB in Aaron Rodgers. The Texans were 5-0 and looking "Super" as in Super Bowl bound, but fell flat and hard. Their defense, considered one of the best in the league, fell apart with the surgical precision of Rodgers. Many were surprised by how easy he made it look, but there was a precursor to what happened. The Texans had only played against one top level QB and that was Peyton Manning who carved-up their secondary for 25 points, 330 yards, and two TDs. That means that the two top-level QBs have burned the Texans for eight touchdowns and 668 yards in two games for a total of 73 points! In fact, since last season when Houston's defense "turned the corner," the Texans are 0-6 ATS vs. great offensive teams (those like Baltimore that average 6+ yards per play). Enter Joe Flacco and his top 10 QB rating on the season, and a Ravens’ offense that has put up nearly 27 points per game and we are going to have a game here. Layered on top of that is the fact that the pundits have declared the "sky falling" on the Rvaens defense that just lost Ray Lewis. They are being told they can't be dominant without him. This is when teams seem to rise to the occasion and others pick-up the pieces. I expect to see that in this one. Teams with five wins that suffer their first loss tend to letdown, and are just 3-6 ATS as a favorite in their next game. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 13-4 ATS following an ATS loss. Baltimore shows up here. Take them with the points.