JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
5 UNIT PLAY
Oakland/ Jacksonville under 44: Last year these teams put up 69 points, but I don't expect the same thing here. The Jags offense is very vanilla and conservative and they will need to use ball control to keep an Oakland offense that has some pop, on the sidelines. Jacksonville averages just 242 ypg and 3 ppg on the year and should not be able to put up much on this Raiders defense that has played pretty good at home, allowing just 345.5 ypg. The Raiders offense has been explosive at times this year, but still they come in averaging just 17.4 ppg. The Raiders have gotten away from their run game, but they should look to establish that in this one vs a Jags defense that has allowed 163 ypg on the ground this year. That will certainly eat some clock. I expect both teams to run the ball allot which should keep the clock rolling. and keep this one well under the total. KEY TREND--- Jacksonville is 16-5 to the Under after allowing 175+ rushing yards in their last game.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Dallas -1 over CAROLINA: Last week the Cowboys really got their ground game going and vs a tougher defense then they will face this week. The Cowboys need the run to take the pressure off of Romo and I really look for them to pound the ball here Vs a Carolina defense that has allowed 127.4 ypg on the ground at 4.4 yards per pop.That will only open up the throwing lanes for this Dallas pass offense that has averaged 287.8 ypg through the air to put up some big yards on a Carolina defense that is 19th vs the pass, allowing 249 ypg. On Offense Carolina is 13th in rushing, but they will need to throw it here if they wanna keep pace with the Cowboys and that is not their strong suit. The panthers are just 22nd in passing and Newton has not looked that great after an impressive 1st year in the league. Today it won't get easier for him as the Cowboys have the top passing defense in the league, allowing just 181.6 ypg. Dallas is the better team here and they played a very good game last week vs Baltimore, but just came up a bit short. The Won't in this game as they have the better offense and better defense and should win by at least a TD. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any road team in a conference game if they are off a road game in which both teams scored 24 or more points. Teams in this spot are 31-9 ATS the last 40 times the situation came up.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona/ Minnesota Under 40.5: Both teams are having problems protecting their QB’s and that should leads to allot of running in this game. Arizona doesn’t have a great running game, but they will need to run the ball to keep these Minnesota pass rushers from teeing off on Skelton. Even with their passing game Arizona is not really an explosive offense as they average just 4.6 yards per play on the year. Minnesota has an excellent running game behind Adrian Petersen and I look for them to use that running game allot in order to keep a solid Arizona pass rush from getting to Ponder. Both teams have a rather conservative style of play and that should translate into this game staying well under the number. I look for 31 points at most here.
NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over NY Jets: Gotta like the Pats here vs a team they hate and coming off a loss. The jets have played well last week, but the Colts are not the Pats. The Jet offense was better last week, but they still have problems how to use Tebow and that will lead to inconsistencies and you cant have that vs this team. You mostly must score an every drive and the Jets haven't been close to doing that this year. New York averages just 22.2 ppg and 184 ypg passing and number like that aren't good vs the Pats. New England comes in averaging 453 ypg and 31.3 ppg on the year and the fact that they can now run the ball (153 ypg) has made them so much more difficult to defend. NY Is already thin on defense, especially in the defensive backfield and they will have big problems trying to slow down this no-huddle speed offense of the Pats. New England is angry once again and you can bet that they will take their frustrations out on their hated rivals from New York.
HOUSTON -7 over Baltimore: Last week Houston got a wakeup call vs the Packers but they will bounce back in this one. Baltimore is being hit hard by injuries on the defensive side of the ball right now and last week it really hurt them vs the run as they allowed Dallas 227 yards on the ground. Now Arian Foster gets his shot at this defense and he is an angry back after being held to just 28 yards last week vs the Packers. Once the ground game gets going then Matt Schaub should be able to get some big plays downfield vs a weakened Baltimore secondary. On offense Baltimore can put up points, but this Houston defense is one of the best in the league and will bounce back after such a bad showing last week vs Green Bay. Look for Houston to get back on track vs a Baltimore team that just doesn’t have enough defense to keep this one close.
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Dallas vs. CarolinaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Since their blowout win over the Giants on the opening night of the season, the Cowboys are 1-3 SU, their lone victory coming in non-covering fashion at home against Tampa Bay. The Cowboys weaknesses during this slump have been on full display. DeMarcus Ware has six sacks, but the rest of the team has combined for only four – opposing QB’s have time to throw without a strong Cowboys pass rush. And DC Rob Ryan’s insistence on using aggressive blitzing tactics in ‘third-and-long’ situations has burned them repeatedly; unable to get off the field on third downs. With top draft choice CB Morris Claiborne questionable with an ankle injury, that may be a continuing problem again this week.
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Tony Romo hasn’t thrown a TD pass on third down all year, and he's got the single lowest QB rating in the league on third downs! The Cowboys receiving corps has suffered from the dropsies all year, with crucial drops by Dez Bryant and Kevin Ogletree costing them the game last week. The offensive line played better last week with the return of starting center Phil Costa, but leading rusher DeMarco Murray hurt his foot leaving the Cowboys without their best power rusher. This is a talented but frustrating team right now; a squad that can’t seem to overcome their numerous mistakes on a weekly basis. And their 1-9 SU mark in their last ten October ballgames makes the Cowboys status as road favorites here somewhat tenuous.
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The spot certainly favors Carolina, with the Panthers coming off their bye week following a string of three consecutive defeats. But coaching and chemistry questions persist in Carolina even after the bye, for a team that has lost eight games since the start of the 2011 campaign by a TD or less. The Ron Rivera coaching tree (Norv Turner and Lovie Smith) hasn’t impressed bettors – it’s really looking like a legitimate concern that Rivera was interviewed for SEVEN different head coaching jobs without getting hired prior to his arrival here.
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The Panthers offense has been their biggest weakness so far this year; held to a dozen points or less three times in five games. Their only touchdown in an ugly home loss before the bye was on an interception return touchdown, as QB Cam Newton had career lows in completion percentage and passing yards against Seattle. The Cowboys defense, despite some third down woes last week, still ranks #2 in the NFL in total yardage allowed. And the Panthers defense has been solid all year, despite facing a schedule that’s seen them face Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan in the last month. Put it all together and this total is a notch or two too high! Take the Under.
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Washington Redskins vs. NY GiantsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington RedskinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington is a live dog here as they catch a Giants team that is off a huge 7 point road dog blowout win over the Niners in a what was a very satisfying win. The Giants have had their problems with The Skins and lost both games handily last season. Washington was 5-11 last season with 2 of the wins coming vs the Superbowl Champs. The Giants are 0-5 ats in their last 5 October games and have failed to cover 10 of the last 12 as a home favorite off a dog win, and their is a system that plays hand in hand with that trend. Washington is 7-1 to the spread off a win vs an opponent off a dog win and coach Shanahan is 5-0 ats after his teams score 35 or more vs an opponent off back to back wins and covers. While we wont call for the upset here, we will take the points which will likely be around 7 at game time in what looks to be a close game here today. Were on Washington.
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New York Jets at New England PatriotsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New England PatriotsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We will side with history and take the Patriots, who will be looking to make amends for last week's meltdown en route to a loss at Seattle. The Patriots are facing a divisional foe that they have beaten 15 out of the last 20 meetings. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in this series, and while the Jets busted out last week against a young Colts team, we don't think they will keep it up vs their nemesis from New England. Shonn Greene ripped the Colts last week for 160 yards and three touchdowns, but with a 2.7 yard per carry average in the four previous games suggests a reversion to his average ways. The Patriots D is only allowing 83 yards per game on the ground, and with the Jets are only putting down 91 on the ground in their road games, it will be a tall order for the Jets to generate any offense to keep up with the points that New England will put on the board. Watch for Brady to continue to spread the ball around and score enough to cover this spread.
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Titans at BillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Titans have been a good over bet this season, going over the total in four of their six games. This is due mainly to the poor Titans' defense which is ranked 32nd in points allowed (34.0) and 24th or worst in rushing defense, passing defense and total yards. In fact, the Titans have allowed 30 points or more in all games except their last one, a 26-23 win over the Steelers. As bad a defense as the Titans have, the Bill are ranked just on notch higher. Buffalo is 31st in scoring defense (32.0 ppg), 32nd in rushing defense (173.5 ypg) and 31st in total yards allowed (429.8). The Bills have allowed 45 points or more in three of their six games this season. Two horrible defenses collide here on Sunday and that usually means lots of points. Fantasy owners should be happy with the outcome of this game, as well as OVER betters. Take the OVER
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Tennessee vs. Buffalo
Pick: Tennessee
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While this is a big game for them, I don't believe that the Bills should be favored by more than a field goal here.
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The Titans got back on track last time out, beating Pittsburgh outright. As that was a Thursday game, they've had a couple extra days of preparation here.
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After suffering back to back blowout losses, the Bills also got back on track last week. Like Tennessee's victory, note that Buffalo's win came by only three points.
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The Titans beat the Bills last season and I won't be surprised if they give them all they can handle again here. Consider taking the points.
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N.Y. Jets vs. New England
Pick: New England
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The New York Jets are currently 3-3 on the season after beating the Colts 35-9 last week. New York has beat three losing teams as the combined record of those teams is just 8-9. The Jets three losses have come against winning teams as the teams are a combined 13-6. New York didn’t just lose those games, they got blown out. In their three losses, the Jets have lost by a combined score of 84-27. While New England doesn’t technically have a winning record at just 3-3 on the season, they are certainly one of the best teams in the NFL. All three of New England’s wins this season have come by double digits, and they will follow suit in this game.
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New England comes in off a loss in Seattle, but that was a terrible scheduling and situational spot for the Patriots. Despite that, the Patriots dominated the Seahawks as they out-yarded Seattle 475-368. They lost on a last minute 46-yard touchdown pass, and off such a loss, the Patriots will take out their frustrations on the weak Jets. New York’s offense is pitiful, and once the potent Patriots offense gets out to a lead, the Jets have no chance to comeback. There’s a major class difference between these two teams so we’ll lay the big points with the Patriots on Sunday afternoon.
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New England Patriots -10.5
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After blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in Seattle last week, the Patriots will be extremely hungry when they take the field Sunday afternoon.
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The Patriots have been an awesome investment in bounce-back spots as they are on a 28-10-1 ATS run in their last 39 games following a loss. Under Bill Belichick, they are 11-3 ATS following a defeat of three points or less. They have won by an average score of 31.4 to 15.7 in this situation.
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New York's wins have come against the Bills, Dolphins and Colts - teams that didn't make the playoffs last season. Its losses have come by an average 19.0 points to the Steelers, 49ers and Texans - teams that made the postseason a year ago.
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The Jets played the Texans to a six-point game at home but were outgained by nearly 100 yards and trailed by as many as 13 points. They were defeated 27-10 by Pittsburgh and 34-0 by San Francisco. New England is certainly capable of blowing out the Jets as well. The Pats won last season's two meetings by an average of 15.0 points.
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New England ranks No. 1 in the NFL in both scoring and total offense with 31.3 points and 445.3 yards per game. The New York offense has been anemic. It ranks 29th in total offense with 295.5 yards per game and 20th in scoring with 22.2 points per game. I don't see the Jets having enough offense to keep up.
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Peyton Manning played a nearly flawless game in New England and the Pats still beat the Broncos by 10 points. New York won't get even close to that kind of performance from Mark Sanchez.
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The Jets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. We'll lay the points.
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New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: New Orleans Saints
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Good timing? The return of Vilma to practice during the week lit a fire under several of his mates on the defensive unit, which is ranked dead last in the NFL. Vilma is expected to play between 20 to 30 snaps, two team sources told ESPN's Ed Werder. On offense Saints tight end Jimmy Graham is OUT with an ankle injury. Look for Colston to catch around 8-10 balls Sunday. Lance Moore missed the last game with a hamstring injury but has been healing for two weeks now and is expected to return. Watch for Sproles to have a huge game. He tallied 99 yards from scrimmage and scored in the second meeting with the Bucs last year. The Bucs will have no answer for Brees' accuracy.
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The Bucs looked last week but that was vs. Brady Quinn. This is Drew Brees. I smell trouble for the young squad. They'll be without Aqib Talib to boot. Did you know Tampa Bay has lost 13 of its last 15 games, and the road team is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings. Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win, and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South, and are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. This is one of those divisional games that ends up closer than expected, but on the road the Saints will have too much offense for the Buccaneers.
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Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Pick: Houston Texans
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Big spot for Houston off the miserable showing last Sunday night. The Texans should be able to damage a ravaged Ravens defense, and I would expect a good Houston stop unit to rebound here. Number is high, but I'll side with the Texans.
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Oakland -6FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jacksonville returns from its Bye that followed a pair of home losses of 38 and 17 points. The Jaguars are considered by many to be the weakest team in the NFL. Oakland returned from its Bye last week and played well in losing at unbeaten Atlanta, enjoying their best rushing game of the season. Defensively the Raiders' have held 3 of 5 foes to under 60 yards rushing. Oakland's defensive weakness has been against the pass. But Jacksonville has a very limited passing attack and has netted less than 150 passing yards in each of its last 4 games. Now they take to the road for the first time in a month. The Jaguars are also being outgained by an average of 183 ypg, 75 ypg more than the second worst net negative ypg team! Oakland has the better overall talent with a solid edge at QB. Both teams have played tough early season schedules but in most areas the Raiders have performed better. Although both teams are an identical 1-4, Oakland is the much better team.
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Tennessee +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Were grabbing the early call NFL nasty nasty dog!!! looking deep in the #'s these Titans have been blasted the first few weeks of the season as they had the misfortune of one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.... Lions/Minny/New En/Houston/Pittsburgh..... wow... Now they will match up well with the soft "Buff Bills"... Power rated @ a pickem here guys as Hasselbeck will lead the troops here... Get after these Titans have who have C Johnson looking to rollup a great day as he will face a D that 740 rushing yards and seven TDs on the ground last 3...... These Titans have owned the Bills as 4/4 W's last 4 and 8 -1 last 9 vs Bills... The Titans are getting healthy boys.... ( Wr Britt back in the house)... Titans out right.
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Pittsburgh -1FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Steelers are a dominant 13-3 the last 16 games at Cincy. The Steelers off a bad loss to the Titans last week and sitting at 2-3 SU with only 1 cover all year! Their offensive line is depleted with injuries and their running game is in a funk and beat up to. This is a do or die game for the Steelers tonight. Somehow Big Ben comes up big in games like this, and Cincy is ripe for the taking with a suspect defense that cannot expose all the Steelers weakness's. All Pitt's losses have came on the road which has driven this line down.
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Cincy have issues of their own here against a banged up Steelers team losing by 10 to the Browns and a rookie QB last week, and losing at home to the Dolphins 2 weeks ago again to a rookie QB. Not sure Cincy can beat a focused yet injured Steelers team who are in a must win scenario. Better defense lies with Pitt, in a tight one I am taking them and counting on Big Ben to improvise a few miracles here tonight. Pitt is 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed and must use their passing game which is ranked 7th in the NFL tonight. I see a 3 -4 point game here, Steelers find a way.
LEE EARNEST
Pittsburgh Steelers -1
I feel that Pittsburgh is being undervalued here given their slow start this season. The Steelers have been plagued with injuries to start the year and that has cost them a couple of game. However, this is still a more than capable team and even sitting at 2-3 to start the year they still have a very good chance to win their division and it is all going to start with this game. Pittsburgh has won the last 4 meeting with Cincinnati both SU and ATS and since 1992 they are an astonishing 16-5 ATS. Pittsburgh just seems to find a way to win against this team. Yes the Bengals are a much improved team over the last couple of season with the addition of Andy Dalton and AJ Green, but there are question marks on this teams defense that have arisen over their last two games seeing how they lost to both Miami and Cleveland. Pittsburgh is not a pushover team by any stretch of the imagination. They still have a stellar defensive corp ( even without Troy Polamalou ) and they have the ability to make big plays on offense. Given Cincinnati struggles on defense and with it being almost a "must win" for Pittsburgh, I'll back Pittsburgh at a virtual pick'em.
New Orleans Saints -2
This is another game where I feel that the Saints are incredibly undervalued in this role, given their rocky start this season. Offensively this team is still the juggernaut that they were in years past, it is on the defensive side of the ball where this Saints team is falling short. Their defense is just in shambles and is bleeding profusely. They can't seem to stop anybody and they are allowing teams to run all over them with they themselves can't seem to run the ball at all. The Saints are averaging less than 80 yards per game on the ground and I think this is where people are going to mis-read this game. The Saints can't run the ball, but that doesn't matter because Tampa's defensive strength is in stopping the run. The area where they are weakest is defending the pass. the Saints can't run the ball anyway so I don't see why they would try very much when that plays into the defense's strength. Tampa is currently giving up an average of 300 yards through the air and that doesn't bode well when you have a passing surgeon such as Drew Brees in the backfield. Brees averages about 350 yards passing per game against regular competition. Against a weak secondary and pass rush he should have no problem finding his open receivers. The Saints got a taste of their first win of the season last week and I'm willing to bet that they want more. They themselves probably never figured that they would start the season 0-4 and with this being an important divisional game I'm going to look for the Saints to give the Bucs all they can handle. 2 points isn't too much to ask to cover.
Green Bay Packers -5
For me this game comes down to the fact that St Louis doesn't have their biggest playmaker on the field in Danny Amendola. Amendola was approx 60% of St Louis' offense up until the point where he got hurt. When Bradford was in trouble he would simply loft the ball to Amendola anywhere on the field knowing that Danny gave him the best shot, Bradford doesn't have that type of security now. Amendola is a dangerous player and I don't know if a young team such as the Rams can overcome a loss like that, especially now when they have to face the pass rush of Clay Matthews. Green Bay on the other hand will be looking to ride the momentum of their complete and total thrashing of what was supposed to be one of the best defenses in the league on their home turf, I'm talking about the Houston Texans. That Texans win was just what Green Bay needed to silence all of the doubters and critics who were whispering about how they thought the team was underachieving this year. That game showed everyone that this Green Bay can still play at the level that they were at last year. Laying the points on the road is always a tough thing to do but Green Bay is just the all around better team and should win this game by double digits. Lay the points
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San Francisco -125FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Since his late season return, Chris Carpenter's numbers look fairly decent: 26.2 IP, 9 ERs. Make no mistake, he's been fortunate and hasn't looked sharp. I've watched both of his postseason starts and clearly the stuff just isn't there, hence why he's fanned only three batters and had six swinging strikes. Meanwhile, Ryan Vogelsong had his struggles in late August/early September but has rallied back and allowed three earned runs his last five starts including two solid postseason outings. I supported him in his last start against St. Louis and Carpenter and he didn't disappoint as the Giants won 7-1. Obviously this is a do-or-die situation for the Giants but that is only a small part of this handicap. I've been playing against "damaged" starting pitchers all season and won't stop here.