Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 23

Carlo Campanella

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans -3

History continues to repeat itself for this Houston franchise, who opened to a quick 3-1 start this year, just as they did last year. Unfortunately, they have dropped 2 straight games and are now 3-3 as they head to Tennessee this Sunday. Last year, they finished the season at 6-10 after the quick start and we find them at 0-6 ATS in games 5-9 the last two years. Expect their troubles to continue, as Tennessee plays a solid ball-control offense behind veteran QB Hasselbeck and All-Pro running back Johnson, which allows the Titans to win with their stingy defense that's allowing 18.8 points per game this season. Tennessee is already 2-0 SU at home this season, handing Baltimore (4-1) their only loss this season. Lay the points with a well-rested Titans crew that's 13-9 SU & ATS following their Bye week, including 5-3 ATS as home favorites.

Spartan

Kansas City Chiefs +4.5

We cashed nicely with our last freebie as the 49ers went into Detroit and left town with the outright. This week I am turning to the AFC West and suggesting a wager on the Kansas City Chiefs as they venture out to Oakland. Also, as of this writing the quarterback situation in Oakland is still not settled and I can tell you I like the Chiefs getting the points regardless of who is under center for the Raiders. The Chiefs were given up for dead by most but are showing they still have a pulse. The team has settled down and managed to regroup after getting stunned early on with some key injuries. People tend to forget this was a playoff team last season and can still be dangerous. They won't light up the scoreboard but they are tenacious as hell on the defensive side of the ball and when it's Raider week you can throw out records. These teams have been arch rivals since the 60's. Last sunday in Houston was an emotional win for Oakland following the death of Al Davis. That team spent a ton of energy and left that field drained. I just feel anything over a field goal here is too much, I look for another close one that likely will mirror last years match up in Oakland that resulted in a 3 point victory for the silver and black. I reside right here in Missouri and generally do well with Chiefs picks, both for and against, I say Haley's guys getting 4.5 points here is the sharp side.

Sam Martin

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: St. Louis Rams

We don't care how bad St. Louis, it's insane for Dallas to be this high of a favorite based on their track record. The Cowboys only have two wins this year, and those victories have come by a combined five points. Dallas has given up a ton of yards through the air, and even if they build a big lead St. Louis is more than capable of scoring points in garbage time and come through the back door. We're not calling for an outright win by the Rams, but we don't see this game ending in a blowout, either. 5* Play on St. Louis.

Hollywood Sports

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: St. Louis Rams

The Cowboys (2-3) do not deserve to be a double-digit favorite against anyone after losing three of their first five games this season. Dallas has struggled to get their running game going as they are gaining only 84.8 rushing YPG (27th in the NFL) -- and with the loss of starting running back Felix Jones to injury, they will likely be even more one-dimensional in this contest. The Rams' do play solid pass defense as they rank 15th in the league passing yards allowed. The Cowboys are very unreliable in spots like this as they have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying more than 10 points. Dallas has also failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And home field has not helped much either since the Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 home games as a favorite. St. Louis (0-5) will likely be without starting quarterback Sam Bradford who remains listed as questionable with a high ankle sprain. But don't overreact negatively to A.J. Freeley taking the snaps for the Rams since the veteran quarterback has twenty professional starts under his belt. This offense needs weapons at wide receiver to open things up -- and this is exactly what they got at the trade deadline by acquiring Brandon Lloyd from the Broncos. His presence on the field should open up room for running backs Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams who offer the potential to provide a power ground game that can keep Tony Romo off the field. St. Louis has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Getting double-digit points in very enticing for this club very motivated to earn their first win of the season. Take the points with the Rams.

John Ryan

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings

5* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Green Bay Packers set to start at 4:15 PM ET. This appears to complete mismatch on paper with Minnesota starting a new quarterback in Christian Ponder and the Green Bat Packers riding a 12-game winning streak and covering 11 of the last 13 games played. However, there are significant reasons to play Minnesota and look for them to cover the spread. The public is falling into a trap bet here for this game in my opinion. More than 80% of the best made covering the large sample size of sports books I monitor are betting the Packers. Whenever, I see a 75% reading or higher it is an immediate red flag to be joining the public enthusiasm. Of course, not every play wins being a ?contrarian? to the public betting methods, but over the course of a season you will make money. Afterall, when was the last time a bookie or casino closed their doors due to a lack of winning? The Vikings may have a first time starter at quarterback, but they have a strong defense that has under performed in several games this season. The key to defeating the Packers is keeping the offense to gaining less than six yards per play. When the Packers have gained 6.0 or more yards per play they have posted a 4-1 ATS mark this season, 17-9 ATS the past three seasons, and 71-44 ATS mark since 1992. It has not been that the Minnesota passing attack lacks talented players that has made them the 29th ranked passing offense in the NFL. McNabb?s play has been less than stellar. Throughout his career he has been inaccurate with short pass routes often forcing his receiver to reach down to their ankles to pick a ball off the ground. When that happens it allows the defenders to close that much faster and make tackles. Ponder is a far more accurate passer, especially in ball control type plays that the offense will elect to run. Let?s not forget that Minnesota has a punishing ground game led by running back Adrian Peterson. Ponder is just what the Vikings offense needs and he will gain control of huddle and the respect of his teammates quickly. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose this game by eight or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-9 ATS for 77% winners since 1983. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that is an average offensive team scoring 18 to 23 points per game after a loss by 14 or more points and now facing an excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game. This system is also 7-1 ATS for 88% winners spanning the last three seasons. Minnesota ranks 19th in the NFL scoring 20.2 points per game. They are coming off a terrible game losing to the Bears 39-10 installed as two point dogs. Green Bay now ranks best in scoring offense at 32.8 points per game and are coming off a 24-3 win over St. Louis. Here is a second system that has produced a 26-5 ATS mark for 84% winners since 2000. Play on dogs or pick and is an average offensive team scoring 18 to 23 points per game after scoring three points or less in the first half last game facing an excellent offensive team scoring 27 points per game. Two of the criteria for this three part system are shown above. The Rams did score their only three points of the game in the first half in that loss to Green Bay. The Rams did out gain the Packers in that game 424 to 399 in total offensive yards. Take the Minnesota Vikings

Erin Rynning

Tampa Bay +0.5 1st Half

Some news and notes for Sunday's matchup between Chicago and Tampa Bay in London. Two years ago, the Buccaneers showed up in London on a Friday and were clobbered by New England 35-7. There was an obvious class different between the two squads at the time but Tampa players and coaches admitted that they weren't acclimated to the new surroundings and time change. In order to avoid that this year, the Bucs arrived Monday evening, had Tuesday off, and practiced on Wednesday. The Bears meanwhile are scheduled to arrive on Friday. By being more comfortable with time change and playing conditions and having the ability to win the line scrimmage should the weather get bad, I recommend a play on Tampa Bay +0.5 first half.

Stephen Nover

Chiefs @ Raiders
PICK: Under 42

The Raiders getting Carson Palmer to replace injured Jason Campbell has dominated the news.

Lost in all of the hoopla, though, is any thought of the total. There doesn't figure to be a lot of scoring, due in large part to the Raiders' quarterback situation.

The Raiders are either going to start Palmer or Kyle Boller.

Palmer hasn't done any football activities during the past 9 1/2 months having missed training camp and the first six games. He's had just three practices. He's obviously rusty and has no chemistry yet with his young wide receivers, who now must adjust to a new quarterback.

Palmer hasn't been good during the last three years with his velocity down. He has become a below average quarterback living on name recognition having once been outstanding before debilitating injuries.

Kyle Boller is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the league. A first-round flop, Boller is 2-11 in his last 13 career starts.

The Chiefs have been respectable defensively during their past three games surrendering less than 21 points per game. They rank 19th in total defense and will be stacking the line to key on Darren McFadden, the Raiders' lone consistent offensive threat.

The Raiders are going to be without a huge weapon as it's unlikely Sebastian Janikowski is going to play due to a hamstring injury. He's 12-for-13 in field goals this season and could be the best long-range kicker in the game. There will be no 63-yard field goals without Janikowski. Instead 50-plus field goals will become punts.

Kansas City lacks a big-play offense. The Chiefs have yet to overcome the departure of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis. Hulking straight-ahead plodding Jackie Battle is their latest offensive toy. Jamaal Charles he is not. But Battle will get a lot of carries as the Chiefs try to take advantage of Oakland's vulnerable run defense.

So this matchup, a key division tilt between two long-time and bitter rivals, figures to have a strong ground game approach. This, of course, eats clock and is a huge plus for the under.

Marc Lawrence

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets
Prediction: New York Jets

The Chargers head east in this early start Sunday looking to overcome their poor play in Eastern Time zone cities where, under Norv Turner, the team stands 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS – including 0-4 SU and ATS in regular season visits to AFC East sites under the Norvous one. Further complicating matters has been the play of NFL teams off a Bye Week this season (1-5 SU) where the new Collective Bargaining Agreement calls for four straight days of time off for players (including weekends) during their week of rest. Thus, rest appears to be turning to rust and it couldn’t come at a worse time for the usually slow-starting Chargers who this year have bolted out to 4-1 beginning. On the flip side, the Jets snapped a 0-3 SU and ATS losing skein with a Monday night win over Miami and take the field knowing that .400 or greater home dogs off a win that appeared in the NFL Conference title game the previous season stand 12-5 SU and ATS in this role since 1980. Add to that Rex Ryan’s sterling 8-1 SU and ATS career mark in games in which he is a ‘pick’ or dog of less than 4 points and we’ll stay grounded with the Flyboys here today as they improve to 6-1 ATS in this series. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Jets.

Ray Monohan

Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Atlanta Falcons +3

NFL fans and bettors alike should be treated to an exciting matchup in Week 7 in Detroit, where the Lions will be out to recover from their first loss of the season against an Atlanta team that is still trying to get it together for this season. Atlanta will be looking to get Julio Jones (hamstring) back in the lineup to give them more explosiveness in their offense, but they won’t need to be a juggernaut on that side of the ball if they can continue to force turnovers. The Lions (5-1) finally fell, losing 25-19 to San Francisco in a game that will be remembered more for the post-game skirmish between Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz and San Francisco counterpart Jim Harbaugh. The Lions will be out to avenge last week’s loss, but they’ll have to deal with the fallout of Schwartz-Harbaugh all week, so that could factor into their preparation. We expect Detroit to win, but it’ll be close; take Atlanta to cover the sports betting spread in the Motor City.

Wunderdog Sports

St. Louis Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: St. Louis Rams +13.5

How the hell can I back St. Louis, a team getting outscored 9.8 to 27.4 on average on the season? Actually, given the history of pointspreads in the NFL, the question should be how can you not back them? Any pick can be a win or a loss and picks on ugly dogs can lose ugly. But, history says the very beastly dog here is the way to go. I don't think there is much doubt that the Cowboys will win this one, but thanks to an inflated number, we have value taking the points on the Rams. When you get to this point of the season and a team hasn't notched a win, you automatically get extra line value on them. Add in a big loss last week in which St. Louis looked horrible and you get even more value. Dallas is off a huge emotional game vs. New England, a game they had for over 59 minutes, but in the end New England and Tom Brady once again worked their magic on their way to another win. I seriously doubt Dallas will be excited and focused after that one facing this Rams team. Winless teams from Week 6 come through blindly at a 62% clip ATS as their opponents often mail-in these games. Dallas has had more problems as a favorite than any team in the league of late as well, as they are a dismal 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 when giving points, including 1-7 ATS at home in that situation. I'm going with the ugly dog here and backing St. Louis.

Tradeline Sports

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Play: St. Louis Rams +14

The pointspread in this NFC matchup has moved nearly 4 points against St. Louis, and the movement is two-fold. One because of the offensive woes of the Rams and the status of Sam Bradford in Sunday's matchup against the Cowboys in Arlington. The Cowboys (2-3) are not worthy of laying 13 to 14 points to any team in the league, even St Louis at 0-5.

Dallas has had every game decided by four points or fewer but has been inconsistent late in games. The Cowboys have blown fourth-quarter leads in all of their losses and trailed entering the final period in their victories.

"We've played them against some very good teams, among the best teams in the league right now over the first five games of the season," coach Jason Garrett said. "These are the kind of games you play in the NFL," this published by the AP wire.

Dallas also is concerned about a number of injuries. Top rusher Felix Jones is out with a high ankle sprain, leaving third-round pick DeMarco Murray to replace him.

Left guard Bill Nagy is out with a broken ankle, with undrafted rookie Kevin Kowalski replacing him in last Sunday's 20-16 loss at New England. Kowalski could move to center with Garrett shifting Phil Costa to guard.

"We have some depth, we don't have a whole lot experience," Garrett said. "We have to manage that situation."

The Rams made a move to bolster a thin receiving corps Monday by acquiring Brandon Lloyd from Denver and Lloyd is familiar with St. Louis offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, his previous coach with the Broncos.

"There shouldn't be any kind of a learning curve," general manager Billy Devaney said. "It's up to him and the coaches to see how quickly he gets out there."

Veteran wideout Mark Clayton, meanwhile, has returned to practice after being on the PUP list all year. He is expected to play Sunday.

Additionally, Steven Jackson is healthy again. He ran for a season-high 96 yards in the Rams' 24-3 loss at Green Bay on Sunday.

With or without Bradford the Rams are in good hands at quarterback. Veteran A.J. Feeley will be under center if Bradford can't go.

Play against home teams (Cowboys) in the NFL that are coming off a loss as an underdog but covered against the spread when the oddsmakers open the pointspread between 10-13.5 points. The trend is a solid 26-4 (87%) over the last 10 NFL seasons.

James Patrick Sports

Green Bay at Minnesota

The Over is (13-6) ATS since 2002 in this series and the Packers should be able to post big points this week. Green Bay only scored (24) last week but they did so in the first half before getting very conservative holding a big lead against the Rams. Playing indoors on a fast track will help the Green Bay passing game and Minnesota’s defense had a lot of problems last week. Christian Ponder showed some promise last weekend he gets the start here. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday complimentary selection in the NFL is on Packers - Vikings Over the Tota).

Chuck O'Brien

Kansas City at Oakland

I'm going to play the Kansas City Chiefs plus the points in Oakland against the resurgent Raiders, but let me make something perfectly clear: I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they Chiefs won this game outright. As a matter of fact, you'll see two ratings below this analysis, as I'm playing the higher-rated freebie straight, and a lower-rated one on the moneyline.

First of all, let's get right to the big question with this game: why in the hell are the 4-2 Raiders laying such a small line to the 2-3 Chiefs? I mean, the Raiders haven't been half bad this season, they're not winning by luck, they've lost to two of the better AFC-performing teams and they've covered five of six this season. Looks to me like the oddsmakers are begging you to lay this number, and I'm calling shenanigans on this one, as I think it's a big-time trap.,

Sure, Kansas City looked awful at the start of the season, actually, since the preseason. But in their last two games, albeit against Minnesota and Indianapolis, the Chiefs' offense have come alive to win and cover. And let's look at Kansas City's first three losses, against: Buffalo, Detroit and San Diego, all playoff-potential teams at this point in the season.

So after what was conceivably a rough start to the season, the Chiefs now come to Oakland after enjoying an open date last week, and might be catching the Raiders at the right time, as they're going to try to break in aging veteran Carson Palmer at quarterback, now that Jason Campbell is out for at least six weeks with a broken collarbone. I've never been a fan of Palmer's, and I'm taking shot specifically because I think the Chiefs will be bringing the heat on him with a heavy pass rush, while stacking the box to slow Oakland's rushing attack.

As for the aforementioned Kansas City offense, quarterback Matt Cassel has completed 56 of 82 passes for 693 yards with seven touchdowns versus just one interception for a 117.6 passer rating, which ranks second in the league over that span. Meanwhile, his 68.3 completion percentage ranks third in the NFL. I think he's going to come in unassuming in this one and will hook up with Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston plenty of times to frustrate the Raiders.

With Kansas City coming home next week for a Monday night encounter with AFC West-leading San Diego, on Oct. 31, I have to believe the Chiefs will be looking for the outright win in this one, in order to stir up some momentum for that big rematch from last season, when the Chiefs won in Week 1 on a Monday night. This is also a rematch, though, from a narrow loss to San Diego earlier this season, in a game the Chiefs showed dramatic improvement.

Don't look at this one as if it's too easy; it's a trap! The Chiefs are the play. And I am seeing +3-1/2 or +4 points in this one, so be sure to get the right number when playing this game. Incidentally, I see +180 on the moneyline.

3♦ KANSAS CITY

1♦ K.C. MONEYLINE

Scott Delaney

Green Bay at Minnesota

Out with the old, in with the new.

Too bad for starter and veteran Donovon McNabb, even worse for the Minnesota Vikings, who will be throwing Christian Ponder to the wolves Sunday, when the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers infiltrate Mall of America Field. It was announced that Minnesota's 12th overall pick last April will make his first NFL start Sunday against the undefeated Packers.

The former Florida State quarterback made his regular season NFL debut last Sunday late in an eventual 39-10 Vikings loss to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, on national television. He came in for McNabb, and went 9-for-17 for 99 yards passing.

In April, when veteran Brett Favre and fellow reserve Tavaris Jackson were still on the roster, it appeared Ponder was going to compete with Jackson for the No. 2 quarterback spot. But after the NFL lockout was lifted heading into August, Favre officially ended his career and Jackson ended up in Seattle. Now it looks like McNabb needs to make a decision on whether or not to officially end his career - his own mother got up and left Sunday's game in Chicago after watching her son get sacked - and the job could very well be Ponder's, if he can perform well.

That remains to be seen, but what I do know is this might be the absolute wrong time to throw Ponder in the fire. Just two years removed from being perhaps one play from the Super Bowl, Minnesota is 1-5 and has one of the worst offensive units in the league, ranking 23rd. Under the direction of McNabb, the Vikings' passing game is second-worst in the NFL. Now, the good news, I suppose, is the Packers have the second-worst passing defense in the league. However, they also rank 10th in the league with 15 sacks.

And you have to believe Green Bay, which is in after a stifling 21-3 win over St. Louis, will be coming after Ponder and will be looking for antoher dominating win to stay undefeated.

Minnesota's defense ranks 15th in the league, but I don't think it'll be able to contain the league's fourth-best offense and No. 1 scoring team that averages 32.8 points per game. There's a part of me that believes the defending champs believe they should have put it on St. Louis much more, and will be out to do so against the Vikings, a twice-a-year, arch-rival they love to beat up on.

Lay the points on the road, as Green Bay comes away with a huge win.

3♦ GREEN BAY