Chris Jordan
Atlanta at Detroit
If you haven't heard this anywhere else, then let me be the first to tell you: the Atlanta Falcons are not going to the playoffs, and will be an afterthought when the team is broke up during the off-season. Yes, I said it, the Dirty Birds need a facelift. The Detroit Lions, on the other hand, don't need anything but a team to beat up on, after suffering their first loss of the season last week against San Francisco.
I fully expect the NFC's second-best team to rebound with a huge win, as the Falcons don't impress me one bit. Sure, they come in off a win over Carolina last Sunday, but I can't trust a team that shown flaws numerous times this season, while alternating losses and wins over its first six games. If the pattern holds true, it's time for another loss by the Falcons, and it's only fitting it happens against another smoethering defense.
Atlanta couldn't perform at Chicago in the season-opener, losing 30-12. They went to Tampa Bay two weeks later and lost 16-13. Two weeks after that, Green Bay went into the Georgia Dome and won 25-14. And make note on that last one, the Packers have the second-worst passing defense in the league, so where in the heck was the Falcons' high-flying offense?
I'm just not impresses with Atlanta, which also went 0-4 in the preseason, never getting past 23 points. With their 3-3 mark, the Falcons are being outscored by 12 points in the margin differential, and their once threatening offense now ranks 20th in the league.
Now, as for the Lions, who are one game back of the Packers in the NFC North, they have the 12th best defense overall, the No. 6 passing defense and the No. 8 scoring defense. And again, this is a team that will want to prove something after suffering their first loss of the season. Back on their homefield, with the crowd behind them, this is going to be a wild atmosphere, and the Lions will be fired up.
I am seeing this line at -3' or -4 at most places, so my suggestion is you buy the half point down no matter what line you see. Take this line down to a field goal if the line is 3', or down to 3' if you're seeing a line of -4.
5♦ DETROIT
NFL Predictions
Carolina Panthers -2.5
As good as the Redskins defense has been, they have just as many trouble scoring. The Redskins came off a bye week to host the Philadelphia Eagles, and managed just one touchdown which came with under 3 minutes to go in the ball game. Grossman threw for 4 interceptions in that game, and the Redskins have decided to go with John Beck under center this week. Beck hasn't started a regular season game since 2007 where he went 0-4 with the Dolphins in his rookie season. The Panthers offense ranks 6th in total yards (428 per game) and they are averaging 22.2 points per game this season. Although the Panthers are just 1-5, they have kept games close going 4-2 ATS. The Panthers covered the spread against the Packers, Bears, and New Orleans. Although the Redskins had an impressive win against the Giants in the season opener, their other two wins have come against Arizona and St Louis. Washington is just 3-9-7 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. As long as the Panthers can establish a running game like they have been in recent weeks, I like Cam Newton to lead this team to their second home win of the season.
Cleveland Browns -2.5
Both the Seahawks and Browns come into this one with a 2-3 record. The Seahawks enjoyed a bye last week after beating the Giants in New York the week prior, while the Browns lost by 7 in Oakland after their bye week. Seattle has beaten Arizona and New York, and has losses to San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. The Browns have beaten Indianapolis and Miami, and has losses to Cincinnati, Tennessee and Oakland. Seahawks QB Tavaris Jackson is out with a pectoral injury, and we will see Charlie Whitehurst under center for the Seahawks. The 29 year old played after Jackson was injured and went 11 for 19 for 149 yards. In 2010 Whitehurst completed 57.6% of his passes with 2 TDs and 3 INTs for a 65.5 QB Rating. Colt McCoy has been OK for the Browns, throwing for 8 TDs and just 3 INTs this season, but will need to better in order to lead this Browns team to some more victories. The Browns will be without CB Joe Haden this week, but their defense has been pretty solid this year - allowing just 321 yards against per game (good for 7th in the NFL). The Seahawks are just 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games, and I don't think Charlie Whitehurst can out play Colt McCoy on the road Sunday. Take the Browns -2.5 as they get things done by a Field Goal or more.
New Orleans Saints -13.5
A rematch of Super Bowl 44 Sunday Night, but this time the Saints are the favorites. The Peyton Manning-less Colts are winless (0-6) oin the season, while the Saints led by Drew Brees are 4-2. Curtis Painter has done a good job since taking over, completing 55% of his passes for 5 TDs, just 1 INT and a 93 QB Rating, but the Colts defense has provided much help. Indianapolis is averaging 27.2 points against per game this season, and should have a lot of troubles against the Saints who are average 29.5 points per game and 35 points per game at home. The Saints had won 4 straight since an opening night loss to the Packers, before losing 26-20 last Sunday in Tampa Bay. Note that the Saints are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss. Drew Brees is like Tom Brady, taking losses personally and I see a big offensive performance coming from him Sunday Night against a struggling Colts defense. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The loss of Sean Payton on the sideline may affect the team a little bit, but he will still be calling the plays from up top, and I don't see it affecting the play of this Saints team at home. The Colts have only faced one high powered offense this season in the Houston Texans, and were beat badly in a 34-7 loss. Expect a similar outcome Sunday Night as the Saints rebound from their Week 6 loss in big way on prime time.
Steve Janus
Colts/Saints OVER 47.5
These two teams should have no trouble scoring at least 48 points in this game. The Colts defense has played surprising well despite how bad the offense has been, but they have yet to face an offense that can throw the ball as well as the Saints. New Orleans is averaging 344.3 passing yards a game and are scoring just under 30 points per game.
New Orleans offense is even better on their home field, putting up 35 points per game. The Colts defense is 30th in the NFL against the run, allowing 136.7 ypg. When you give the Saints the ability to run the ball, it makes their offense nearly unstoppable. I expect them to score 35-40 points in this game.
The Colts offense should be able to do more than enough to put this game over. Indianapolis has been moving the ball a lot better of late, as Curtis Painter gets more and more comfortable within the offense. The Saints defense has allowed 26 points or more in four of their six games this season. The Colts still have some big playmakers at the receiver position, and should be able to score at least 2-3 touchdowns.
The OVER is 13-3 in Colts last 16 road games, 11-4 in Saints last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 4-0 in Colts last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. BET THE OVER 47.5!
Matt Fargo
St. Louis Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: St. Louis Rams +13½.
We lost with the Rams last week against the Packers and that was a game we should have won. St. Louis outgained Green Bay by 25 total yards but it missed numerous opportunities to get the ball into the endzone and provide us with the cover. They now hit the road once again and are catching a big number for a second straight week. St. Louis was catching 14 points against the best team in football last week and now it is getting only two points fewer this week which is a joke.
The Cowboys are not two points worse than the Packers as they remain one of the biggest underachieving teams in the league over the last few years. They are 2-3 and this has turned into a must win game but they have shown hardly anything since Jason Garrett took over as head coach that can resemble a big win. In his last five wins going back to last season, none have been by more than a field goal. Playing down to the opposition has become a trait as Dallas is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.
The Dallas offense has ongoing problems that just got worse with yet another key injury against the Patriots. The New England defense has been lit up quite a big this season but the Cowboys were unable to take advantage of that and no matter how back the Rams defense has been, there is not a whole lot of confidence in the Dallas offense especially with the offensive line once again in shambles. Quarterback Tony Romo is clearly not back to 100 percent after a broken rib and punctured lung.
To their credit, the Cowboys defense performed excellent against the Patriots offense last week but I do not see a repeat of that as it is very unlikely that they can think about getting up for the Rams. The health of quarterback Sam Bradford is a concern but as of now it looks like he will be playing, His high ankle sprain is on his non-plant foot which is a big difference. "It feels good," Bradford said. "Obviously, it feels better than it did on Sunday, and even on Monday when I woke up."
The Rams fall into a great spot based on last week's results. Play against home teams that are coming off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog going up against an opponent that is coming off a road loss. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. On top of this Dallas has been absolutely atrocious when coming off a road loss as it is 1-6 ATS in its last seven and this one will be even tougher as the Cowboys put 110% into the New England game only to come out on the short side. 3* (419) St. Louis Rams
Ray Monohan
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Atlanta Falcons +3
NFL fans and bettors alike should be treated to an exciting matchup in Week 7 in Detroit, where the Lions will be out to recover from their first loss of the season against an Atlanta team that is still trying to get it together for this season. Atlanta will be looking to get Julio Jones (hamstring) back in the lineup to give them more explosiveness in their offense, but they won’t need to be a juggernaut on that side of the ball if they can continue to force turnovers. The Lions (5-1) finally fell, losing 25-19 to San Francisco in a game that will be remembered more for the post-game skirmish between Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz and San Francisco counterpart Jim Harbaugh. The Lions will be out to avenge last week’s loss, but they’ll have to deal with the fallout of Schwartz-Harbaugh all week, so that could factor into their preparation. We expect Detroit to win, but it’ll be close; take Atlanta to cover the sports betting spread in the Motor City.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego –2 over N.Y. JETS
We’re never quite sure about the Chargers but facing this incompetent Jets team, we don’t have to be. With a precarious Mark Sanchez under center, coach Rex Ryan has invoked a run-first, manage the clock, play defense approach. That can work – if you can run. The Jets can’t. Their 3.3 yards per rush, ranking 31st in the league, clearly illustrates that. Sanchez cannot overcome this deficiency with his arm and having to face a team that can rack up points, the home team figures to be in a hopeless position for most of the afternoon. San Diego off to its best start in years and always gets stronger after their bye. Jets 24-6 win over Miami sure looks a lot prettier on paper than it actually was. The Jets three wins have come against Dallas in a game they had no business winning in followed by a victory over Jacksonville before last Monday’s win over Miami. When playing three quality teams, the Raiders, Ravens and Pats, the Jets lost them all by nine or more and now they’re coming off that Monday night win, meaning one less day to prepare of this quality intruder. Play: San Diego –2 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
ARIZONA +4½ over Pittsburgh
The schedule makers have once again been kind to the Steelers. Home games against the Seachickens, Titans and Jaguars have produced a perfect 3-0 mark and last week the Steelers had to hang on to beat the Jagwires by a measly four points. Leaving Pittsburgh hasn’t been as successful. The Steelers only road win was a narrow 3-pt win at still winless Indianapolis with losses occurring at Baltimore and Houston by a combined 52-17. While the Cardinals may not exactly be a formidable opponent, they are best as hosts and they’ve had an extra week to prepare. In its last two home games, Arizona held the Panthers and Giants to 56 and 57 yards, respectively on the ground. Additionally, the Steelers have the Patriots up next week followed by games against the Ravens and Bengals, thus, Pittsburgh is in real danger of overlooking this one. Play: Arizona +4½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Kansas City +6 over OAKLAND
As if Al Davis’ death wasn’t enough, the Raiders remained in the spotlight with the acquisition of discontented Carson Palmer from Cincinnati. While Palmer figures to help this club, it is difficult to fathom how he goes from sitting on the couch for months to being the starting QB for an unfamiliar team on less than a week’s notice. And it’s not like Oakland can turn to its defense until Palmer gets up to speed. Raiders have been outgained in all but two games, with one being in desperation mode during comeback attempt to New England. A lot of distractions in the Bay area while Chiefs are rested and ready for familiar foe. One thing we’ve learned over the years is that every team will suffer an emotional letdown at some point during the season and the Raiders have yet to do so. This looks like the week that occurs. Chiefs outright but we’ll play it safe and accept points. Play: Kansas City +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
The rest of the games with no wagers.
Chicago –1 over Tampa Bay
Seems fitting that these two will play in the city where Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde resided. Both squads have shown split personalities this season but given that both are on good behavior, prefer having Jay Cutler’s arm over a Tampa defense that has allowed six touchdown passes in its past three games. Also note that the Bucs are coming off intense filled win over Saints while Bears barely broke a sweat in a pasting over the Vikes. Play Chicago –1 (no bets)
Washington +2½ over CAROLINA
Skins looked brutal last week in one of the feature games of the week while the Panthers haven’t looked brutal all season. That display last week against Philly has many leaning Panthers and that could be a mistake based on one showing. Taking points with the Panthers is much wiser than giving any away. While Carolina did cover in its only game as chalk, that lone win was against a woeful Jacksonville group averaging just 12 points per game on offense. Combine that with a Redskins defense allowing just 16 points per game and Washington becomes the prudent pick. John Beck starts over Rex Grossman. Play: Washington +2½ (No bets).
CLEVELAND–3 over Seattle
Seahawks pulled huge upset in New York two weeks ago, upending the heavily favored Giants. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice. While the Browns don’t exactly instill warm and fuzzies, prefer them laying a small price at home to a Seattle squad that has covered just five times in past 23 attempts as the visitor. Play Cleveland –3 (No bets).
TENNESSEE –3 over Houston
Chris Johnson is too good of a runner to be held to a puny average of three yards per carry and with an extra week to acclimate to his blockers, we expect a breakout game from the young star. Texans figure to remain hindered without best offensive and defensive players, as both remain sidelined. Play: Tennessee –3 (No bets).
MIAMI –1 over Denver
Isn’t Halloween next week? Would hardly pay attention to this stinker but Tim Tebow will start for the Broncos and we’ll get to find out if he’s as unqualified as many believe him to be. Seems like coach John Fox caved in to the “mob mentality” to start Tebow after all the talk show whining and complaining and after all the church collection plates were cashed in for billboards. We doubt Tebow is the savior. It’ll be difficult for the Dolphins to be any worse than they were on Monday night and a strong response to that debacle is a a distinct possibility. So at a short price, we’ll lean to the Fish. Play: Miami –1 (No bets).
Atlanta +3½ over DETROIT
How can we handicap this game without mentioning the handshake heard round the world? After all everybody hates losing so we totally understand Coach Schwartz getting torqued off over the handshake, the backslap, the yelling in the ear, the bouncing around the field like Daffy Duck at the end of an old Looney Tunes cartoon. Hey coach, this is the pros. It’s your job to help the team kick ass on the field. And when you do, act like you expected to. Save your “teenage girl at a Justin Beiber concert” routine for appropriate situations. Detroit needed three comeback victories before finally losing to the Niners last week. Lost in the Lions improbable start is their inability at stopping the run. If Matt Forte, Frank Gore and Adrian Petersen ran them over, Atlanta’s Michael Turner can certainly do the same. Falcons always comfortable indoors and taking points. Play: Atlanta +3½ (No bets).
DALLAS –13 over St. Louis
If Dallas loses this one, there may be an ‘Occupy Cowboys Stadium’ protest. Cowboys remain talented but have found novel ways to give away games. The ‘Boys have faced teams that are a combined 20-8 thus far while the Rams are a sorry bunch that have scored a league-low 49 points and those hits on Sam Bradford keep adding up. Play: Dallas –13 (No bets)
MINNESOTA +9 over Green Bay
The Vikings have finally opted to start a quarterback that wasn’t born in the 70’s. Rookie Christian Ponder gets the start for Minnesota and why not? He may have his hands full against the champs but there is enough room and enthusiasm in a divisional matchup to warrant our support. Play: Minnesota +9 (No bets).
NEW ORLEANS –14 over Indianapolis
This is the Saints’ only home game in a five-week span and they’ll surely be strutting their stuff for partisan crowd, especially after loss in Tampa last week. Indianapolis ’ overworked defense has yet to allow less than 23 points in a game, including 27 and 28 past two to Chiefs and Bengals respectively. Saints may score 56. Play: New Orleans –14 (No bets).
This week’s Survivor Pick:
NEW ORLEANS
Pick a team this week. There’s Dallas over St. Louis, Baltimore over Jacksonville, the Pack over the Vikes and then there’s New Orleans. A good rule of thumb is to avoid big favored road teams, as they’ve been a lot more prone to losses (over the years) than chalk at home and you can double that in respect to the prime time Sunday and Monday Night games. Thus, we would not take Baltimore, nor would we take the Packers. That leaves the Saints and Cowboys and looking ahead, Dallas has a whole slew of soft opponents coming up. The Saints are home after three weeks, it’s a prime time affair and Drew Brees is one of the top three QB’s in the game. The Saints are simply the best big favorite of the week. Our hope is that a lot of folks are on the other three and one of them loses.
TEDDY COVERS
Broncos @ Dolphins
PICK: Under 41.5
Where do the touchdowns come from in this matchup? This inflated total is telling us that these teams need at least five TD’s between them to go Over the number, and frankly, I just don’t see that happening. Miami’s offense is a mess. QB Matt Moore was a disaster in Carolina last year. He was every bit as bad on Monday Night against the Jets, throwing a pair of bad interceptions while unable to generate a single touchdown drive. Miami has spent the entire season settling for field goals in the red zone, ranked #31 in red zone efficiency. They’ve been held to 16 points or less in each of their last four ballgames, staying Under the total each time. Expect that trend to continue here.
But the Broncos aren’t exactly a high-flying offensive juggernaut with Tim Tebow making his first career start. John Fox is a conservative head coach to begin with, and Tebow’s skill set is still rather limited for an NFL starting quarterback. Tebow completed only 50% of his passes in spot duty last year. In his lone appearance this year, against San Diego, Tebow completed only four passes in a full half of football – a half where the Broncos were desperately trying to erase a double digit Chargers lead. The Dolphins defense held the Jets under 300 total yards last week – just 13 first downs, only 17 offensive points. Anything close to that level of effort and performance here should cash our Under ticket with relative ease. Take the Under.
Larry Ness
Atlanta Falcons +3.5
I have not be one of the Detroit "deniers" but I have been skeptical about how just how good these Lions are. Clearly, the team made great strides last year, going 6-10 and an NFL-best 13-3 ATS, after going 0-16 (2008) and 2-14 (2009). However, while the Lions opened 5-0 (4-0-1 ATS), extending their winning streak to NINE straight in the regular season (finished 2010 with four straight wins), one shouldn't overlook the fact that Detroit fell behind the sad-sack Vikings 20-3 at in the half in Week 3, as well as falling behind 27-3 to the Cowboys the very next Sunday. Detroit's luck ran out last Sunday, when the 49ers' Alex Smith connected on a fourth-down, six-yard TD pass to Delanie Walker with 1:51 left in the game, giving San Francisco the go-ahead TD. The Niners would add a FG less than a minute later for a 25-19 win. The stats were fairly even last week but what's troubling for Detroit is the fact that Frank Gore had 141 yards rushing, leading the 49ers to 203 yards on the ground (7.0 YPC). That's a week after Matt Forte of the Bears had 116 yards, as Chicago ran for 122 yards (4.9 YPC). In that win over Chicago, Detroit's Jahvid Best broke off an 88-yard TD run but against San Fran, Best had just 37 yards (on 12 carries) before leaving with a concussion. He's been ruled out for Sunday's game and it's expected that Maurice Morris will start (nine carries for 20 yards on the season). Detroit's running attack is highly questionable, as is its OL. One has to be concerned how much more Matthew Stafford can take (he was sacked FIVE times by the Niners and hit 10 other times!), if things don't improve soon. More bad news comes Detroit's way in that the team's opponent will be the Atlanta Falcons, who feature Michael Turner. Turner had 139 yards on the ground in Atlanta's win over Carolina last week, while scoring two TDs. Let me note here that while he's had an up-and-down start to 2011 (three, 100-yard games but an average of just 48.7 YPG in his other three), this guy led the NFC with 1,371 rushing yards in 2010 while accounting for 39 rushing TDs from 2008-10, the second-most in the NFL in that span. The Falcons, who last year were an NFC-best 13-3, come in just 3-3 and already trailing both New Orleans and Tampa bay (both 4-2). One has to believe that last week's Atlanta win proved to head coach Mike Smith that the clearest path to Atlanta winning is for Michael Turner's running being used to set up QB Matt Ryan's passing game, NOT the other way around. Detroit ranks 26th vs the run, allowing 129.5 YPG on 5.2 YPC (the second-highest allowed by any team). What's more, Detroit's secondary is banged up and despite the team's ferocious defensive line, the Lions could have all sorts of trouble covering Atlanta's TE Tony Gonzalez (the only player in league history with 60-plus catches in 12 consecutive seasons) plus outstanding WR Roddy White is now getting some help on the other side from rookie WR Julio Jones (25 catches / 14.3 YPC). I realize this is Detroit's third straight home game but I'm looking for the Falcons to come in here and 'steal' a win, right on the heels of Detroit's first loss of 2011. Atlanta is a shaky road team but the Falcons should be comfortable here, on their preferred surface (turf) and inside of a dome. This may surprise some but let me note that the Falcons were never once, more than a three-point underdog in any of their 16 regular season games last year and in their first six games of 2011, have only been more than a three point underdog against the Packers (plus-six in a 25-14 home loss on Sunday Night Football in Week 5) and I'm told, the Packers are a pretty good team. I'm taking the points!
Rob Vinciletti
Chargers vs. Jets
Play: Over 43
The Chargers are 11-0 to the over before a Monday night game and have also gone over the last 6 games in the first of back to back road games. The Jets have gone over in 6 straight vs AFC West teams, 8 of 9 in game seven and the last 4 times coming off a Monday night game. The Jets will look to get their inconsistent offense going and the Chargers ff the bye week may have some wrinkles in their offense the Jets working with 1 less day pf preparation have not seen on film. Look for a higher scoring game here today resulting in an over.
Black Widow
1* Denver Broncos PK
Everything is working in Denver's favor heading into this game. It's essentially going to be a home game for new starting quarterback, Tim Tebow. The Dolphins have sold an extra 20,000 tickets ever since Tebow was named the starting quarterback for the Broncos. Tebow returns to Sun Life Stadium where he won a high school championship and a national championship in college. Before the game, the Dolphins will honor Tebow and the rest of the 2009 Gators' championship team. Tebow has been solid when given a chance. He accounted for 850 total yards and seven total touchdowns while throwing just three picks while getting the start in the final three games of 2010. He saw his first significant action this season in a 29-24 loss to San Diego on Oct. 9, completing 4 of 10 passes for 79 yards and one touchdown while rushing for another score. He nearly led the Broncos back from a 10-26 deficit. "He's just a baller, an all-out baller," linebacker Joe Mays said. "Some people may call him unorthodox, but at the end of the day, he gets the job done." While the Broncos traded away Brandon Lloyd, they are expected to get two of their best receivers back this week. Demaryius Thomas and Eddie Royal return from injury to join Eric Decker, who has emerged as their top receiver. Miami is 0-5 on the season and they are in a much worse situation than Denver with Matt Moore as their starting quarterback. The Dolphins rank 30th in the league with 15.0 points per game and are tied for 30th with six touchdowns. The defense is giving up 390.8 yards - seventh-most in the league. The Dolphins have historically been a terrible bet at home. The Dolphins are 17-47-1 ATS in their last 65 home games. Miami is 1-11 at Sun Life Stadium since Week 16 in 2009. Take the Broncos Sunday.
Bob Balfe
Dolphins PK
The Tim Tebow era has arrived. Tebow was a great college quarterback, but he is not a quality NFL QB. His jersey is one of the top selling jerseys in all of pro football. He is a very likable guy, but that’s not going to win football games. The Broncos are weak at wide receiver and their defense is not that good either. Miami had a great defense last year and the unit is back in tact. There is no reason why this defense does not stiffen up and beat this Denver team. Miami has a better offense and should win at home. Take the Dolphins.
Steve Merril
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions -4
Atlanta needed three Carolina turnovers to win last week. Without those game-changing plays, it would have been a different outcome for the Falcons. They were out-yarded on the field (368-325) and out-gained 5.9 to 5.6 yards per play. Atlanta trailed going into the fourth quarter before scoring 17 points; they needed 26 plays to gain 142 yards over the final 15 minutes of the game. So the scoreboard reads like a blowout win for Atlanta, but it was hardly that. And the Falcons are taking a major step-up in class here against the Lions, especially with this game being played on the road with Detroit coming off a loss. We can forgive the Lions for losing last Sunday. They were in a terrible situational spot after winning a highly emotional Monday night game against a divisional opponent just six days before. The Lions were flat against San Francisco, and that was clearly evident by watching the game. Detroit’s offense holds a huge match-up edge in this game. The Lions have a terrific passing game led by QB Matthew Stafford. They are averaging 277 passing yards per game on 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Atlanta’s defense has been dreadful against the pass this year as they are allowing opponents 283 yards per game on a whopping 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The Falcons have been out-gained through the air in all but one game this season so there’s no reason for the Lions not to a field day against the weak Falcons’ secondary. Detroit’s defense has gone unnoticed because of their offense. The Lions are ranked in the top 15 in the league overall and they present huge problems for opposing offensive lines with their strength along the defensive line. They rank 6th in the league against the pass (205 yards per game on 5.5 yards per pass) and they are allowing opponents to convert less than 30% of their third down attempts. With WR Julio Jones still questionable, the Falcons will be hard-pressed to stretch the Lions’ defense through the air. Detroit is in a great bounce back spot at home to notch a solid win over a vastly overrated Atlanta team.
Ray Monohan
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Atlanta Falcons
NFL fans and bettors alike should be treated to an exciting matchup in Week 7 in Detroit, where the Lions will be out to recover from their first loss of the season against an Atlanta team that is still trying to get it together for this season. Atlanta will be looking to get Julio Jones (hamstring) back in the lineup to give them more explosiveness in their offense, but they won’t need to be a juggernaut on that side of the ball if they can continue to force turnovers. The Lions (5-1) finally fell, losing 25-19 to San Francisco in a game that will be remembered more for the post-game skirmish between Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz and San Francisco counterpart Jim Harbaugh. The Lions will be out to avenge last week’s loss, but they’ll have to deal with the fallout of Schwartz-Harbaugh all week, so that could factor into their preparation. We expect Detroit to win, but it’ll be close; take Atlanta to cover the sports betting spread in the Motor City.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Chiefs/Raiders UNDER 41
Both of these teams rely heavily on their ground attacks. Oakland will look to run the football even more now that starting QB Jason Campbell is out 6 weeks with a broken collarbone. The under is a good play when dealing with run-heavy offenses. When teams run the football the clock keeps moving, there are less big plays and therefore less points scored. These two have combined for 41 points or less in 9 of the last 10 meetings. The Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in this series and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Oakland. Bet the under.
Jack Jones
Seahawks/Browns UNDER 41
I expect a defensive battle Sunday between the Seattle Seahawks and Cleveland Browns. These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league, but each has been respectable defensively. I don't see either squad surpassing 20 points in this one.
Seattle has the 29th-ranked unit in the league in total offense (288.0 yards/game). The Seahawks are only averaging 18.8 points/game this season, including 17.7 points/game and 269.0 yards/game on the road.
Cleveland is 24th in the league in total offense (310.4 yards/game). They are scoring just 18.2 points/game on the season, including 15.7 points/game at home. The Browns are 7th in the NFL in total defense (321.8 yards/game).
Tarvaris Jackson is doubtful to play for the Seahawks, leaving the quarterback duties to backup Charlie Whitehurst. The Browns' 30th-ranked rushing attack (81.6 yards/game) could use a healthy dose of Peyton Hillis on Sunday, but the bruising back is doubtful after suffering a strained left hamstring injury in the first quarter last week.
Cleveland is 21-8 to the UNDER in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Browns are 12-3 to the UNDER in their last 15 home games versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=90 rushing yards/game. Seattle is 14-4 to the UNDER in their last 18 road games versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.75 yards/play. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.