Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Arizona Cardinals +4.5
Motivated by a 1-4 start and having had a bye week to prepare, look for the Cardinals to take the Steelers right down to the wire this afternoon. The defending AFC champion Steelers have been overvalued this season as one might expect, and they are just 2-4 ATS as a result. They have performed well at home for the most part but are just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road. They were lucky to escape with a win against the lowly Colts in Indy, and I'm here to tell you the Cards are a better football team than the Manning-less Colts. If there's one thing you don't want to do, it's dismiss the Cards at home in the underdog role. That's because they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Arizona has lost 4 in a row, but this is no time for us to turn our back. The Cards are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. We'll take the points.
Steve Janus
Colts/Saints OVER 47.5
These two teams should have no trouble scoring at least 48 points in this game. The Colts defense has played surprising well despite how bad the offense has been, but they have yet to face an offense that can throw the ball as well as the Saints. New Orleans is averaging 344.3 passing yards a game and are scoring just under 30 points per game.
New Orleans offense is even better on their home field, putting up 35 points per game. The Colts defense is 30th in the NFL against the run, allowing 136.7 ypg. When you give the Saints the ability to run the ball, it makes their offense nearly unstoppable. I expect them to score 35-40 points in this game.
The Colts offense should be able to do more than enough to put this game over. Indianapolis has been moving the ball a lot better of late, as Curtis Painter gets more and more comfortable within the offense. The Saints defense has allowed 26 points or more in four of their six games this season. The Colts still have some big playmakers at the receiver position, and should be able to score at least 2-3 touchdowns.
The OVER is 13-3 in Colts last 16 road games, 11-4 in Saints last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 4-0 in Colts last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. BET THE OVER 47.5!
Jim Feist
Seattle Seahawks vs Cleveland Browns
Pick: Cleveland Browns
Seattle is off a bye week. Before the bye they had a 3,000 mile road trip to the NY Giants, and now on the road again. Seattle (2-3 SU/3-2 ATS) has been mostly bad under Coach Pete Carroll, though they come off that shocker winning at the Giants, 36-25. With Matt Hassellbeck gone, QB Tarvaris Jackson (6 TDs, 5 INTs) is the starter but got a strained pectoral muscle the last game. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst (1 TD, no INTs) threw a 27-yard touchdown pass to Doug Baldwin with 2:37 to play and Brandon Browner returned an interception 94 yards to thwart a late challenge by the Giants as the Seahawks won 36-25. Carroll didn’t rule out the possibility Jackson could be ready for Seattle’s game today at Cleveland, but he also didn’t completely dismiss the possibility of surgery. Carroll said the injury is a high-grade strain and will likely keep the QB out of the game. Tight end Zach Miller had an MRI because of a neck injury suffered in the first quarter Sunday. Cornerback Marcus Trufant had tests conducted on his back after suffering a bruised sacrum — the large, triangular bone at the base of the spine. Linebacker Leroy Hill (hamstring) and running back Marshawn Lynch (ankle) are unlikely to practice; receiver Mike Williams (concussion) is expected back. Leading rusher Marshawn Lynch (239 yards) averages just 4.1 ypc behind a bad O-line, 29th in the NFL in rushing (83 yds pg). The run defense is below average. Linebacker Aaron Curry was traded to Oakland during the bye week. The Seahawks are 18-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games in October, 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win. Cleveland (2-3 SU/1-4 ATS) has a new coach in Pat Shurmur, who is also the offensive coordinator, while Dick Jauron is the new defensive coordinator, switching from a 3-4 to 4-3 defense. The offense behind young QB Colt McCoy (8 TDs, 3 INTs) is looking to throw more. The Browns come home from a long trip to the West Coast, a 24-17 defeat at Oakland. The Browns laying just a field goal here is what I'm looking to take. The Seahawks are banged up and with a new QB I expect the Browns to put more players in the box and force them to throw. Cleveland needs wins for their fans and this is the perfect spot to get a win.
Doug Upstone
San Diego +1
The line movement on the Chargers and Jets game has been incredible all week, going back and forth. This NFL system might have the final say on the outcome. Play Against teams like New York off a home win by 10 points or more, against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. (27-7 ATS, 79.4% L5Y)
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Kansas City +4 over OAKLAND: Kyle Boller? Are you serious? With Kyle Boller at QB the KC defense will be able to tee off on the leagues 2nd best ground attack. KC has had some problems stopping the run this year, but without much of a threat from the Oakland passing game they will be able to stack the box and contain the Raiders vaunted ground game. The KC offense has been coming to life of late as they have put up 590 yards passing in their last 2 games, after being held to 175 ypg or less in their first 3 games. Now that improved passing game gets a crack at Oakland's 28th ranked passing defense. Overall the Raiders are 28th in total defense (397 ypg) and 25th in points allowed (25 ppg). This Raiders defense has been beat up by good and bad offenses this year. Yes the Raiders can run the ball, but that's the only edge they really have in this one as KC has a solid defensive edge and a big edge with Cassell over Boller, plus KC has a slight edge on special teams. Add it all up and ya get an outright upset by the Chiefs here.
4 UNIT PLAY
San Diego/ NY Jets Over 43.5: The OU is 12-2 when the Jets take on a team that allows 61% pass completions, plus the OU is 10-1 when the Jets are a dog. The Jet offense has not been that good this year as they are just 29th in total offense with 297 ypg, but when it comes to scoring they are 11th, averaging 24.2 ppg. That gives the Jets a very solid yards per point average of 12.3, which is 3rd in the league. The Charger offense comes in ranked 6th overall (416 ypg) and they are 6th in passing (293 ypg), plus 5th in the league in passing ypa at 7.9. This is a big play offense that should be getting all of their skill players back for this one. That's a scary thought for a Jets defense that hasn't been playing up to their normal standards.The Jets are 5th in the league vs the pass, but they can be run on as they own the leagues 28th ranked rush defense. I know that SD is more of passing team, but by being able to run on the Jets that will open up more passing lanes for this high octane offense. The Chargers are 4th in total defense, but they have a low yards per point average on this side of the ball a 13.4. The Jets offense will need to wake up if they are gonna make a run at the playoffs, so I expect them to get their fair share of points here, while San Diego, who has had an extra week to get ready for this one, will also get their fair share of.points. I can see this game reaching at least 50 points.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Pittsburgh -3.5 over ARIZONA: The Steelers have not been playing all the well so far in the early going, but they should have a good showing here. The Cardinals are off to a 1-4 start and it has been injuries to their offense and a defense that has been very bad, that has them off to their poor start. Well it wont get any easier this week. The Cards should be at 100% on offense, but Kolb is still learning this offense and it hasn't been easy for him to get continuity with his skill plays since they have been banged up. Now this inconsistent offense must take on a pitt defense that has been playing well of late. Pittsburgh is tops in the league in total defense (270 ypg) and passing defense (158 ypg), plus they allow just 4.9 yards per pass attempt, which is also tops in the league. For the record, Arizona is 16th in passing (237 ypg) and 17th inj yards per pass attempt (6.7). The Defense for the Cardinals has struggled as they are 20th overall (377 ypg), 20th vs the Pass (258 ypg) and 19th in points allowed (24 ppg). The Steelers ground game seems to be coming around and that won't be good news for a Arizona team that has allowed 130 ypg on the ground in their last 4 games. Pittsburgh had a slow start to the year, but they have really started to play better and will not allow this bad Arizona team to derail them here. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any team that force 1 or less TO's in 5 straight games vs an opponent that commited 3+ TO's in their last game. This system is 36-12 ince 1983.
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Denver +1.5 over MIAMI: Yes the Dolphins are due for a win, but I just don't see it happening this week. This Denver team will be fired up this week for the Start of Tim Tebow. Tim is the better QB IMO and should boost this Denver offense. The Denver offense does need a boost as they are 26th overall (304 ypg) and 20th in scoring (21 ppg). Tim is a very mobile QB with a good arm and he should have success vs a shaky Miami defense. The Dolphins come in 26th in total defense, allowing 390.8 ypg and they are 29th vs the pass, allowing 284 ypg. Tebow should be able to pick them apart today. On offense is where Miami is really hurting as they have had to go to with Matt Moore after Henne was lost for the year and he did not look good on Monday night. Moore did throw for 04 yards, but hit just 47% of his passes and had 2 INT's and no TD's. Denver's defense has had some problems of late as they have allowed 78 points in their last 2 games, BUT that was vs Green Bay and San Diego and the Miami offense is not even in the same galaxy as those to offenses. Those two games aside the Denver defense has allowed just 20.7 ppg, which is 7 points lower than their seasonal average. I jjust feel this Broncos team is very excited that Tebow is starting and they should grab a rather easy win vs a Miami team that is a mess on both sides of the ball right now. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against any team that scored 14 or less points and they are playing a team off a bye week. This system is 34-12 since 1997.
Pittsburgh/ Arizona Over 43.5: I have Pittsburgh as my top play of the week, but I also feel it will be a high scoring game. Pittsburgh's offense hasn't been that great this year, but their running game is starting to work and it should continue vs an Arizona team that has allowed 130 ypg on the ground in their last 4 games. now once that ground game gets going it will open up the passing game and I can see a few Ben to Wallace connections for big plays. For Arizona they have yet to have all of their offense on the field at the same time, but this week the are 100% healthy on that side of the ball. I see Kevin Kolb having his best game yet as a member of Arizona vs a Pittsburgh defense that is aging and may not be as strong as past editions. Clearly i feel that Pitt will win this game easily, but I do expect this Arizona offense to have some big plays and put points on the board. We also have a nice system for this play. Let's Play the Over when a non-conference road favorite is off BB home wins. This play has gone 31-14 since 1989. I see about 48 points in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Tennessee Under 44: Say hello to two top 10 defenses. Tennessee comes into this game ranked 9th in the league in defense, allowing just 326 ypg and they are 6th in points allowed at 18.8 ppg. They will have their hands full in this one with a Houston offense that is 8th overall and 11th in passing. The Tennessee defense has done well vs the pass as they have allowed just 221 ypg (12th) and 5.8 ypa (4th). Houston's primary attack is a running game that is 7th in the league at 126 ypg, but this Tennessee defense is very solid vs the run, allowing 105 ypg (10th) and just 3.8 ypc (8th). The Tennessee passing offense is getting in gear now the Hasselbeck is learning it, but Houston isn't that bad vs the pass, allowing just 221 ypg (13th) and 6.6 ypa (11th). The Tennessee ground game has been non-existent and it ranks dead last putting up just 67 ypg. Both of these defenses have the ability to stop what the other team does well on offense and that has me seeing a game in the mid 30's at best. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 1-6 when Houston is off a Bye week, while the OU is 2-9 in the Titans last 11 vs division foes.
1 UNIT PLAY
St Louis +13 over DALLAS: Play ON any DD dog if it failed to cover it's last game as a DD dog. This has gone a very nice 25-5 since 1990. The Rams had such high hopes coming into this year but it has not panned out for them and they currently sit at 0-5 on the season. This is a huge sandwich game for Dallas as they are off an East Coast game vs the Patriots and they have a road game with Philly on deck. They can't be focused in this one and that will allow the Rams to stay within the number.
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis +170 over TEXAS
Regardless of what happens in this game 4, Derek Holland and the Rangers cannot be favored by this much over Edwin Jackson and the Cardinals. Holland went 16-5 and that’s the primary reason for the number but let’s not ignore that 4.69 home ERA. In fact, Holland has been feast or famine all year long. 67% of his starts have either been terrific or lousy with the other 23% being neither good nor bad. Holland can lose the strike zone for extended periods of time and it can happen at any time over the course of a game. He can be downright dominating but there’s no crystal ball in the world that is going to tell us which Holland will show up here. If it’s the shaky one, he may not last three innings and if it’s the solid one, the Cardinals still have a shot. Holland did not make it out of the fifth inning in either one of his two starts against Detroit in the ALDS, making him even more of a risk at this ridiculous price. Edwin Jackson has similar results thus far in the postseason to Derek Holland. He didn’t make it out of the fifth inning either in both starts against Milwaukee. His stuff, however, can be nasty and aside from being tutored by Dave Duncan, the real difference is that Jackson is not the one laying –185. Win or lose, we’re going with the best of it, as the Cardinals keep responding when the chips are down. Play: St. Louis +170 (Risking 2 units).
Scott Delaney
Green Bay at Minnesota
Out with the old, in with the new.
Too bad for starter and veteran Donovon McNabb, even worse for the Minnesota Vikings, who will be throwing Christian Ponder to the wolves Sunday, when the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers infiltrate Mall of America Field. It was announced that Minnesota's 12th overall pick last April will make his first NFL start Sunday against the undefeated Packers.
The former Florida State quarterback made his regular season NFL debut last Sunday late in an eventual 39-10 Vikings loss to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, on national television. He came in for McNabb, and went 9-for-17 for 99 yards passing.
In April, when veteran Brett Favre and fellow reserve Tavaris Jackson were still on the roster, it appeared Ponder was going to compete with Jackson for the No. 2 quarterback spot. But after the NFL lockout was lifted heading into August, Favre officially ended his career and Jackson ended up in Seattle. Now it looks like McNabb needs to make a decision on whether or not to officially end his career - his own mother got up and left Sunday's game in Chicago after watching her son get sacked - and the job could very well be Ponder's, if he can perform well.
That remains to be seen, but what I do know is this might be the absolute wrong time to throw Ponder in the fire. Just two years removed from being perhaps one play from the Super Bowl, Minnesota is 1-5 and has one of the worst offensive units in the league, ranking 23rd. Under the direction of McNabb, the Vikings' passing game is second-worst in the NFL. Now, the good news, I suppose, is the Packers have the second-worst passing defense in the league. However, they also rank 10th in the league with 15 sacks.
And you have to believe Green Bay, which is in after a stifling 21-3 win over St. Louis, will be coming after Ponder and will be looking for antoher dominating win to stay undefeated.
Minnesota's defense ranks 15th in the league, but I don't think it'll be able to contain the league's fourth-best offense and No. 1 scoring team that averages 32.8 points per game. There's a part of me that believes the defending champs believe they should have put it on St. Louis much more, and will be out to do so against the Vikings, a twice-a-year, arch-rival they love to beat up on.
Lay the points on the road, as Green Bay comes away with a huge win.
3♦ GREEN BAY
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is to look for the points to add up at Ford Field, as the Falcons and the Lions play over the total on Sunday.
Atlanta has been an over team on the road, as Mike Smith's team is 6-1-1 over the total their last eight road dates. The Falcons are also 6-2 over the total the last eight times they have been installed as the underdog.
As for Detroit, the linesmakers have made it a little tough on their over-backers of late, as the Lions last pair of games have both held under after opening the season with four straight overs.
Overall the Lions are 13-7-2 over the posted total their last 22 games. After being held to under three touchdowns for the first time this season, look for the Lions to get their offense humming again versus an Atlanta team that has allowed 25-points or more in four of their six games this season.
Falcons-Lions to be a high-scoring affair this Sunday afternoon, play the over.
2♦ OVER
Craig Davis
Today's free play winner is on the Washington Redskins.
The rest of the nation is expecting Carolina to finally put it together against a team with a "backup" quarterback.
John Beck will make his first start at quarterback since 2007 for the Redskins in place of the slumping Rex Grossman. Honestly, I'm not excited about either player. Beck was moved from Miami for a reason... he's very average at best.
Grossman, who has had some mild success in the NFL, was just 9-for-22 vs. Philly last week with four interceptions which prompted his benching. Trust me when I say Beck will come out with his best efforts today (without the pressures of the home crowd) in an attempt to keep the starting job for a while.
Potential big problem I see for Carolina today... they put offensive tackle Jeff Otah on IR Wednesday due to lingering back and knee problems. Otah is a HUGE part of what the Panthers do, offensively, and he will be sorely missed.
The Redskins rank third overall in scoring defense, allowing just 16.6 ppg. Defense, and not offense, will be the difference in this game. Washington has it... Carolina doesn't. As much as I'd like to see the Panthers win, I just don't see it happening.
3♦ REDSKINS
Chris Jordan
Atlanta at Detroit
If you haven't heard this anywhere else, then let me be the first to tell you: the Atlanta Falcons are not going to the playoffs, and will be an afterthought when the team is broke up during the off-season. Yes, I said it, the Dirty Birds need a facelift. The Detroit Lions, on the other hand, don't need anything but a team to beat up on, after suffering their first loss of the season last week against San Francisco.
I fully expect the NFC's second-best team to rebound with a huge win, as the Falcons don't impress me one bit. Sure, they come in off a win over Carolina last Sunday, but I can't trust a team that shown flaws numerous times this season, while alternating losses and wins over its first six games. If the pattern holds true, it's time for another loss by the Falcons, and it's only fitting it happens against another smoethering defense.
Atlanta couldn't perform at Chicago in the season-opener, losing 30-12. They went to Tampa Bay two weeks later and lost 16-13. Two weeks after that, Green Bay went into the Georgia Dome and won 25-14. And make note on that last one, the Packers have the second-worst passing defense in the league, so where in the heck was the Falcons' high-flying offense?
I'm just not impresses with Atlanta, which also went 0-4 in the preseason, never getting past 23 points. With their 3-3 mark, the Falcons are being outscored by 12 points in the margin differential, and their once threatening offense now ranks 20th in the league.
Now, as for the Lions, who are one game back of the Packers in the NFC North, they have the 12th best defense overall, the No. 6 passing defense and the No. 8 scoring defense. And again, this is a team that will want to prove something after suffering their first loss of the season. Back on their homefield, with the crowd behind them, this is going to be a wild atmosphere, and the Lions will be fired up.
I am seeing this line at -3' or -4 at most places, so my suggestion is you buy the half point down no matter what line you see. Take this line down to a field goal if the line is 3', or down to 3' if you're seeing a line of -4.
5♦ DETROIT
Matt Rivers
Your Sunday comp play is to lay it all day long wiht the Green Bay Packers as they pay a visit to their ailing division-rival Minnesota Vikings.
Minnesota is now turning the reins over to rookie Christian Ponder...Good luck with that Minny!
Dom Capers' defense will be able to pressure whoever is under center for the Vikings in this one, as I fully expect Donovan McNabb to be in this game before it is all said and done. Don't expect the aging McNabb to fare much better than the rookie Ponder.
Minnesota is just 2-3-1 against the spread this year, while Green Bay comes in as the league's only undefeated team, and they have covered in five of their six victories this season.
Green Bay swept Minnesota both straight up and against the spread last year, and they are a positive 10-6 against the line when installed as the road favorite since the '09 season.
The Packers are heading to their bye-week after this game, and I am sure they will have no trouble heading to that bye with a blowout win under their belts.
Lay it here, as Minny is totally outclassed from the start to the finish.
4♦ GREEN BAY
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s look at the road underdog Atlanta Falcons at the Detroit Lions.
The Lions are coming off their first loss and it’s going to be interesting how they react to that. But let’s look at the Lions’ season. They escaped with victories against the Vikings and the Cowboys. They very well could have a couple of more losses. But they are the darlings of the NFL, and that is why for the inflated line.
The Falcons did not start the season on the fast track. But the Falcons are getting back to what they do well, and that is running the ball. They rushed for 166 yards against the Panthers. If they do that, they will open up the passing game.
Atlanta tried to be an elite passing team, but that is not their personality. With their offensive line troubles, the running game is the best way to keep the pressure off quarterback Matt Ryan.
The Lions gave up 200 yards rushing to the 49ers. Look for the Falcons to pound the Lions.
The Lions will be without running back Jahvid Best.
3♦ FALCONS
Dave Price
1 Unit Steelers/Cardinals OVER 44
We've uncovered a solid situational spot to take the over in today's Steelers/Cardinals game. Plays Over on any team when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) off 1 or more consecutive unders, provided that team has a good scoring defense (allowing 17 or less points/game) are 41-15 the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 45.1 for this situation and the team fitting it has combined with its opponent to score 49.7 total points on average. Take the over.
Michael Alexander
San Diego Chargers vs. New York Jets
Play: San Diego Chargers -1
SAN DIEGO is 22-7-3 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog.
SAN DIEGO is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
NY JETS are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games in October
SPORTS WAGERS
ANAHEIM -½ +102 over Phoenix
The Coyotes usually don’t fair too well at this venue, as their seven wins in the past 23 games here will attest to. This year the Coyotes are full of problems that include a pair of goaltenders that don’t instill the same confidence that Ilya Bryzgalov did. The Coyotes have one good line (Whitney, Langkow, Doan) that would be a second line on most teams and a third line on some. On defense there’s Keith Yandle and not a whole lot more. Phoenix has won twice in six games with wins coming over the Jets and Preds. In their four losses they’ve been outscored 15-6. The Ducks are coming off a loss against Dallas in a game they were clearly the better team in. That loss was Anaheim’s first home loss after wins over the Sharks and Blues. Ducks also opened the year in Europe with games against the Rangers and Sabres and split that pair. The Ducks have scored only 11 goals in regulation and have had four games in which they’ve tallied just once. Still, they sit at 4-2 and it’s only a matter of time until the “Big 4” of Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Teemu Selanne get it going and that could certainly occur here against this division rival. Play: Anaheim -½ +102 (Risking 2 units).