Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 24,2010

Sam Martin

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: San Diego Chargers

Were backing the home team here, as we?re looking past the season straight up records, and instead focusing on the home/road play of both teams. San Diego is 2-0 at home this season, winning by 25 points over Jacksonville and 31 points against Arizona. New England looked bad in both of their road games, losing by 14 to the Jets, and then beat up on Miami with a slew of defensive and special teams plays, but managed only 265 yards of total offense while allowing 400 total yards to the Dolphins. Pats have been fortunate the escape each of their past two games, but we think they get tripped up here.

Marc Lawrence

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Miami Dolphins

We'll be the first to admit that Miami head coach Tony Sparano loves life on the road where he is 12-7 SU and 14-5 ATS. That being said, we feel he will enjoy a taste of home cooking this weekend. Thats because, his counterpart Mike Tomlin, owns a similar dichotomy when it comes to laying and taking points on the road, where his is 6-2 ATS on the receiving end but only 7-11 ATS when laying them. The entree in todays matchup is Miamis 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS mark as a home dog of three of more points in games in which it scored less than 24 points in its previous game if the Fish own at least one win on the season. The dessert is the revenge incentive from a season-ending loss on this field that denied Sparano a .500 record last year. The Steelers 1-5 ATS mark in games against foes off an upset underdog win is the icing on the cake. Take the points with the Dolphins. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Hollywood Sports

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: San Diego Chargers

San Diego (2-4) is a desperate team after losing 20-17 at St. Louis last week. But this club is not unfamiliar with slow starts to their season. Now facing a tough New England team (4-1), expect the Chargers to play their most consistent game of the season. Mistakes are doing this team in as they do rank as the NFL's best team in both offense (432.7 YPG) and defense (255.2 YPG). They also raise their play to the level of their competition as they have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games versus teams with a winning record. At home, they have been particularly dynamic as they are averaging 39.5 PPG with an average winning margin of four touchdowns. New England rides a three-game winning streak but they are doing it with a still-growing defense that is 29th in the league by allowing 273.4 passing YPG and 30th in the NFL with their 383 total YPG defensive clip. Those are very dangerous numbers for a defensive unit now facing Phillip Rivers who is completing 62.3% of his passes along with a posting a strong 100.7 QB rating. After two straight games on the road, San Diego will take care of business back at home. Lay the points.

Vernon Croy

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Atlanta Falcons -3.5

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Falcons are the better overall team coming into this game Sunday afternoon. The Falcons are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -3.5 to -6.5 points and they are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after losing their previous game. The Falcons have out-scored their opponents by an average of 18 points per game at home this season and they will dominate the time of possession again at home Sunday. The Falcons defense has allowed an average of just 264 yards per game at home and 10.5 ppg this season. Turnovers will haunt the Bengals again after turning the ball over 4 times in their last game. The Falcons opponents have turned the ball over an average of 3 times per game in four of their last five games against them.

Matt Fargo

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -6.5

Which Seattle team shows up? The one that lost in St. Louis by 17 points or the one that just won in Chicago last week by a field goal? With both of those games being on the road, I am going with the former as the Seahawks are back home where they are 2-0 on the season. That Bears win was significant in two ways. First, it was the first non-division road win since 2007 for Seattle and second, it was the first game this season that the Seahawks outgained the opposition. While the Seahawks were winning on the road, the Cardinals had the week off following a huge home win over New Orleans. It was a big win but not a dominating win as Arizona was outgained by 164 total yards which extended the run to four games in which it has been outgained by at least 137 total yards. After winning in St. Louis to open the season, a game it easily could have lost, Arizona is 0-2 in its last two road games and getting outscored 82-17 in the process. Making things even tougher for Arizona is the fact that it will be starting Max Hall at quarterback which makes this his first career road start in the NFL. This is not the environment for this to be a successful beginning to his road career as Qwest Field is one of the best home fields in all of the NFL. This will likely mean one thing and that is that the Cardinals will be trying to establish some sort of running game but that is a lot easier said than done. Seahawks will throw all kinds of pressure at Hall and look to force mistakes and the best way to counter that will be to either get the ball quickly out of his hands or run the ball to keep Seattle honest. The issue is twofold as Arizona hasn't had a lot of success running the ball this year as it is ranked 29th in the league at just 87.4 ypg including 690. ypg on 3.2 ypc over their last three games while the Seahawks are ranked second in rushing defense, allowing just 70.4 ypg on 2.9 ypc. On the other side, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer points out that the Seahawks enter this week ranked 27th overall offensively and a lowly 30th running the ball. But the case could be made that last week's win over Chicago was the first time Seattle's offense looked anything like the unit head coach Pete Carroll projected having. The addition of Marshawn Lynch adds to it. The Cardinals are 28th in total defense, 29th in scoring defense, 26th in passing defense and 29th in rushing defense. Not a good combo. Seattle also has a very strong league-wide situation on its side. Play against road teams that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) since 1983 with the average scoring differential being +12.5 ppg. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games while the Cardinals are 1-5 in their last six road games and this also falls into a quadruple revenge spot for the Seahawks. 3* Seattle Seahawks

Ultimate Sport Picks

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -3

We like the Cowboys in this match up. We realize that Dallas is 1-4 and not 4-1, where Jerry Jones would like them to be. America's Team has underachieved to unimaginable levels this season. We have picked against them several times this year. But this week, we think they are a very dangerous team to play. We see Dallas having a bounce back game this week. Added to it, the Cowboys will be playing in a sold out megaplex they call home. The Cowboys have a lot of athletes and will be on Monday Night on Prime Time where athletes play their best. This will be a great game and the Giants should be able to stay in it, but Dallas will get its much needed win. So we think Dallas, at home, only giving three points, is the smart choice here.

Wunderdog

Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Play: Over 37.5

As was evident on Monday Night football, this Jags defense lacks playmakers. The Jaguars have allowed at least 26 points to each of the last five teams they have faced. They have the capacity to score some points as they have topped the 40-point mark twice already. Inconsistent offenses like Jacksonville's often do well after a poor showing and poorly after a good one. The Jags are no exception as they are 4-0 to the OVER after being limited to 250 yards or less in their last game. The Chiefs have been a big surprise this season with three wins already (and a fourth stolen from them last week). They do a much better job of scoring at home which has led to just four of their last 17 played in Kansas City failing to reach the total. They have also gone OVER to a 7-1-1 mark in their last nine after allowing 350+ yards in their last game. Both teams find some room here,

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans -3

The Titans fit a rare Monday night follow up system. What we want to do is play on any team that scored 30 or more on Monday night, if they allowed 10 or less in the win. These teams come right back with a big effort and are 24-4 straight up since 1990. The Titans will have K.Collins making the start here and I look for RB Johnson to fare much better here today as the Titans should have excellent ball control in this one. Their defense has been impressive of late in the red zone as well. Philly is just 1-5 as a non conference dog and may be flat off their big home win vs Atlanta. Lets take the Titans today.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Miami Dolphins +3

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

Pittsburgh came out of its "bye week" with Big Ben under center for the first time this season and it got the 28-10 win over the visiting Cleveland Browns, managing to cover the 14-point spread in the final moments of that game off a big defensive play; the Steelers are 4-1 ATS and 4-1 SU to start the year.

A string of tough games for Pittsburgh now; after Miami it's in New Orleans and then Cincinnati before returning home to play the resurgent Patriots.

I'd be remiss if I didn't point out the fact that the Steelers are a very poor 13-18 ATS over the last 2-seasons when playing the roll of favorite.

On the other side of the field: The Dolphins are 3-2 ATS/SU to start the year; they came out of their "bye week" and beat the Packers at Lambeau 23-20 as 3-point dogs; suffice to say I expect this team to build off that victory and believe they are getting little respect here from the oddsmakers.

And that's because this is a spot that Fish have dominated in over the last few years; 15-10 ATS as an underdog; also 16-12 ATS vs. conference opponents.

Bottom line: I believe this will be a very tight affair; lots of power running, and when the offenses are on the field, look for each to try and control the clock and tempo of this contest as they each try and keep their opposition out of the game as much as possible.

So with that in mind, I'll point out that Chad Henne is 8-1 as a starter in games decided by 5-points or fewer in his career.

The outright win isn't out of the question, but I'll gladly take the points; when taking into account all of the above factors, you may want to consider a second look at the MIAMI DOLPHINS this Sunday.

Teddy Covers

New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers
PICK: San Diego Chargers -2.5

There aren’t many teams in the NFL that have been able to dominate the New England Patriots more than once in recent years. In fact, in the last five years, only two teams have more than one regular season double digit victory over the Pats – their division rivals in Miami, and the San Diego Chargers, who they face this weekend. The Chargers beat the Pats 41-17 in New England in 2005, and beat them 30-10 in their most recent meeting in 2008.

There’s no question that San Diego is a hungry, desperate team after dropping back-to-back games at Oakland and St Louis over the past two weeks. This is nothing new or different for Norv Turner’s squad – they haven’t been above .500 after six games in any of his four years on the job. But San Diego’s track record following these slow starts has been extremely impressive in the Turner era, with a 23-7 SU record in their final ten regular season games over the past three seasons.

New England changed their offensive gameplan last week, their first without Randy Moss in the lineup. Tom Brady didn’t throw many deep balls, without a single completion longer than 30 yards. And Brady took a lot of hits, holding the ball too long while waiting for his receivers to break free. Meanwhile, the Pats defense was forced to blitz a lot trying to generate a pass rush. When those blitzers didn’t reach the quarterback, their cornerbacks really struggled to maintain coverage one-on-one.

The Patriots have won three straight since their Week 2 loss at the Jets, rallying from a double digit deficit to beat Baltimore in overtime last week. Put those factors together with the long trip to the West Coast, and it’s clear that the spot here favors the desperate Chargers. The Turner-Belichick coaching mismatch has generated a relatively cheap price to support the home team in a situation where they are likely to bring their ‘A’ game. 2* Take San Diego.

David Chan

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -13

There are those who say it is very unwise to lay double-digits in the NFL. To those people, I say are you familiar with the Buffalo Bills?

The Bills are not just 0-5. They are a very bad 0-5. They are so bad they could finish 0-16 if they don't defeat Detroit at home in Week 10 or Cleveland at home in Week 14. A winless season wouldn't be the worst thing for Buffalo because in all likelihood it would ensure the Bills of the No. 1 draft pick where they could finally get a decent quarterback.

It's not just quarterback where the Bills are woefully deficient at. Their offensive line is terrible and their defense is small. This is reflected in Buffalo giving up the most points per game at 32.3 while also ranking second-from-the-bottom in passing and being 30th in total offense.

The Bills can expect no mercy playing in Baltimore where the snarling Ravens are at their most intimidating. The Bills have lost their last four games by an average of 17 points. They have allowed 689 yards rushing in their last three games.

Baltimore ranks No. 2 in scoring defense allowing 15.8 points per game and is third in total defense giving up 280.5 yards per contest. And, now, the Ravens have star safety Ed Reed in their lineup for the first time this season.

The Ravens don't mess around at home. They are 14-7 (66 percent) as home favorites. Baltimore has its bye next week so a full effort should be forthcoming.

Larry Ness

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Buffalo Bills +14

For those following my NFL Notes column, this selection will not come as a surprise. Since Week 3 (when there were eight 2-0 teams and eight 0-2 teams), I been charting going against the undefeated teams each week while playing on the winless teams. That little "system" has gone 17-7 (70.8%) since Week 3 (I wish I had played EVERY game). I'm taking the Bills plus the points against the Ravens on Sunday. While I expect Baltimore to win this game on its home field, these double-digit spreads prove difficult to cover for the favorite, often because coaches like John Harbaugh are completely content with a victory by ANY point margin. That said, there are a host of reasons to see Buffalo playing this one closer than expected. The move to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was sound, as he has improved the Bills' proficiency on offense. Fitzpatrick is completing 61.2% of his passes while having thrown seven TD passes to just two interceptions for an excellent 99.9 QB rating. The trade of RB MarShawn Lynch opened up room in the Bills backfield so now everyone else's roles are stable and understood. Fred Jackson is very capable as the starter while first-round draft pick, CJ Spiller (who was not ready to begin the season) is getting more and more touches. Despite losing 36-26 to the Jaguars in their last game (Bills are coming off a bye week), the Bills offense looked good, as Jackson gained 73 yards on the ground while Fitzpatrick was an efficient 20 for 30 for 220 yards and three TDs. The Ravens defense is very good, of course, but Buffalo got a favor from AFC East rival New England with the tape from last week's 23-20 Patriots victory where the Patriots accumulated 394 total yards against Ray Lewis and the Baltimore defense. On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco still seems to be adjusting to his new offensive weapons this season in Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmanzadeh, as the Ravens are scoring only 18.7 PPG. Pass defense is the strength of this Bills team as it ranks 10th in the NFL by limiting teams to just 200 passing YPG. I expect the Baltimore to grind the game out on the ground with Ray Rice. Buffalo has been a wise investment away from home as the Bills have covered in NINE of their last thirteen games on the road. This is a nice opportunity to take them as a big double-digit underdog.

Sean Murphy

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Tennessee Titans -3

We cashed our free play on the Titans this past Monday night, and we'll come right back with them again on Sunday, as they host the Philadelphia Eagles.

Tennessee has gotten off to a solid 4-2 start, with the SU winner also covering the number in each of their first six games. Dating back to last season, the Titans are now 12-4 SU in their last 16 games overall. In terms of coaching, offense, and defense - I consider the Titans to be one of the most complete teams in all of football.

The Eagles own an identical 4-2 record to that of the Titans, and are a perfect 3-0 on the road this season. But how much do we really know about them when their three road victories have come against the Lions, Jaguars, and 49ers? It's worth noting that two of those three wins have come by a field goal.

Philadelphia caught Atlanta in a bad spot last week, as the Falcons were fat and happy off of four consecutive wins and playing the second of back-to-back games on the road. The Eagles aren't so fortunate this week as the Titans are in a fairly solid spot, returning home for the first time in three weeks, and highly motivated after dropping a pair of home games already this season.

The Eagles lost their most dynamic offensive player in DeSean Jackson to a concussion last Sunday, and he's not expected to suit up this week. I think his absence hurts this offense more than it showed last Sunday against Atlanta. The Titans will be able to focus their coverage on Jeremy Maclin, and won't allow him to have a second straight career day.

Tennessee is already 2-0 against NFC opponents this season, with both wins coming on the road versus NFC East foes in the Giants and Cowboys. All things considered, we're laying a short price with the Titans against an Eagles squad that was actually listed as a three-point underdog in San Francisco just two weeks ago. Take Tennessee.

Info Plays

3* on Miami Dolphins +3

Reasons the Dolphins cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (PITTSBURGH) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. This is a 24-4 ATS System hitting 85.7% over the last 10 seasons.

2.) The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. The Steelers are overvalued right now after the return of Ben Roethlisberger. As 3-point road favorites at Miami, the clear value is with the home underdog in this one. The Steelers have been thriving on turnovers this year, but the Dolphins aren't a team that commits many, with only 8 turnovers in 5 games this season. The Steelers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Bet the Dolphins at home.