Black Widow
1* on St. Louis Rams +3
St. Louis catching 3 points at Tampa Bay is an absolute gift Sunday. Sure, the Bucs are 3-2 this season, but all three of their wins came against losing teams in the Browns, Panthers and Bengals. And Cincinnati gift-wrapped their loss, blowing a late 7-point lead where Carson Palmer threw two untimely interceptions. St. Louis is 3-3 this season, and easily could be 5-1. They lost by 4 at home to Arizona and by 2 at Oakland for two of their losses, and obviously laid an egg against Detroit. QB Sam Bradford gives this offense some swagger, and the Rams defense is perhaps the most underrated in the league. St. Louis has allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their 6 games this season. They'll be up against a Bucs team that is averaging just 16.0 points/game this year, and 12.0 points/game at home. Tampa Bay just does not have the offense to put the Rams away. The Bucs defense is also overrated, giving up 22.2 points/game overall and 27.7 points/game at home. Tampa is allowing 368 total yards/game overall and 401 total yards/game at home. Tampa is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons, including 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Take the Rams and the points.
Jack Jones
San Francisco 49ers -3
The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in football. The Buffalo Bills are in a close second. Carolina is clearly the worst because their offense is non-existent. The Panthers are scoring 10.4 PPG this season while averaging 236 total yards, with 100 on the ground and 136 through the air. Because their offense cannot move the ball, their defense wares down because they are on the field too long. The Panthers are losing the time of possession battle by nearly 7 minutes per game.
San Francisco finally got their first win of the season last week, and this team is clearly better than their 1-5 record would indicate. I expect the 49ers to get on a roll now that they got the taste of that first victory, something the Panthers cannot say. San Francisco held Oakland to just 179 total yards in a 17-9 victory last week, not turning the ball over once. Alex Smith knows he just has to take care of the ball and the 49ers will win the majority of the games they play because they have a tremendous defense and an excellent running game. Carolina is 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. I'll gladly fade the worst team in the league this weekend. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
Carlo Campanella
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -5½
NFC West Division battle between two 3-2 rivals that are surprisingly tied for first place. Seattle returns home to host Arizona after both teams pulled upsets in their previous games, with the Bears in Chicago, 23-20, and Arizona beating the Saints, 30-20, before taking their Bye week last Sunday. While Arizona shocked the defending Super Bowl champion Saints, they won behind special teams and defensive Touchdowns, as undrafted QB Max Hall made his NFL debut. QB Hall, a former BYU standout, was just 18 of 29 for 153 passing yards and led the Cardinals to only 10 first downs the entire game! Even with an extra week to prepare, things won't go his way in Seattle, where the Seahawks are an unbeaten 2-0, defeating San Francisco and San Diego by a combined 58 to 26. In a game that will decide the current Division leader, must take the home favored Seahawks over undrafted QB Hall, knowing that Seattle is 9-3 ATS their last 12 at home and QB Hasselbeck is 33-19 ATS in the home Favorite role.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN DIEGO –2 over New England
Well, if there’s one thing we learned last week is that good teams don’t play bad for three or four weeks in a row (see New Orleans) and bad teams don’t play good for weeks on end (see Jacksonville). Enter the San Diego Chargers, a very good team that is coming off losses to Oakland and St. Louis and that now sit at 2-4. Isn’t that the way the Chargers start every year? In any case this is a very talented and dangerous host. They’re loaded offensively and if not for some shoddy play by its special teams they’d be at least 4-2. Furthermore, the Bolts have played just two home games thus far and have won by scores of 41-10 and 38-13. Granted, this isn’t the Cardinals or Jags they’re facing but the fact is the Chargers are way undervalued right now while the Patriots are overvalued after a blowout win over Miami on Monday followed by a nice win over the Ravens last week. That’s two big wins in a row and last week was a real head banger from start to finish. That takes its toll and they’re also being asked to travel across the country to play against perhaps the hungriest team, not to mention one of the most talented in the NFL. A series of mishaps and special team gaffs have put the Bolts in their current hole but they remain tops in both offensive yards and defensive yards allowed. Conversely, only Houston and Washington have allowed more yards than the Pats. Public perception dictates this appealing short price. Play: San Diego –2 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Arizona +6 over SEATTLE
We’ve said it a million times over and it’s worth repeating that laying points with weak teams is bad strategy and this one is no different. The Seachickens went into Chicago last week and beat a very vulnerable Bears squad by three points and now they’re a six-point favorite? Had they lost by three points in Chicago they’d be a three-point favorite in this one. Make no mistake, Seattle is a team that is loaded with young and inexperienced players that will suffer through more ups and downs than most teams. They’re 3-2 coming into this week and they’re always tough at home but they’re so overvalued, it’s sick. While most teams have plenty of playmakers, the Seahawks do not. Both its losses have been by 17 points and its win over San Diego was about as fortunate as they come. Seattle’s other two wins have come against the 49ers and the aforementioned Bears. The Cards are almost a mirror image of the Seahawks in that they’re 3-2 also and its two losses have been by 34 and 31 points. They’re not a good team by any stretch but the difference is that they’re not the one laying six points. Furthermore, the Cardinals are coming off a bye week and that extra week’s rest is huge when playing teams of modest quality and depth. Don’t underestimate Cards rookie QB Max Hall either. He’s been working 12 hour days and has six valuable quarters and a week off to prepare for this one. Hall is the winningest quarterback in BYU history, surpassing an esteemed group that includes Steve Young, Jim McMahon and Ty Detmer. Lastly, the Cards always play this host tough and in fact, Seattle has covered just four times in previous 15 meetings vs Arizona and in no way can be trusted spotting significant points. Play: Arizona +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
CAROLINA +1.30 over San Francisco
Let’s not beat around the bush here. We’re not going to try and convince anyone that the Pink Panthers are a good football team. They’re not. That’s like trying to convince you that poo doesn’t stink. It does. Fact is, the Panthers might be the worst team in the NFL and if they’re not we have yet to see a team that is worse.
This is an excerpt from a piece written by Dan Arkush for Pro Football Weekly:
If ever a stage was set for the Panthers to stand up and be counted after four dreary losses to begin the season, a beaten-down Bears team seemed to provide the perfect kind of props with their visit to Carolina in Week Five. "They could not have gotten the Bears at a better time," one NFL talent evaluator said of the Panthers, who up to that point in the season couldn't have looked more mediocre in every facet of the game. "They (the Bears) were playing a backup quarterback (Todd Collins) on the road, with the starting left tackle (Chris Williams, who was moved to left guard last week) on the bench, and they still could not stop them." No, they couldn't. As it turned out, the Panthers proved to be disturbingly easy pickings for the Bears, falling to 0-5 after losing 23-6 while managing only a pair of field goals and 147 yards of total offense. "They are coaching scared, playing not to lose instead of going for the win," the talent evaluator said. "They are clearly young, but you got to be able to trust your players. They are keeping it all far too simple." Put simply, Carolina's offense is putrid. It is last in the league in both total offense and points per game (10.4.) A ground game that a year ago at this time looked like one of the best in the league — with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart providing a solid one-two punch — has underachieved while seemingly being greatly underutilized by offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson. And yet, in the face of all these obvious shortcomings, Panthers head coach John Fox has remained consistently passive when facing the local media, operating as if the deterioration of the Panthers is simply beyond his control. In short, league insiders agree that there isn't a more likely lame duck in the NFL head-coaching ranks right now than Fox, who appears content to collect the $6.5 million in the final year of his contract and march off into the sunset, where we hear he already could be coveted by a team or two already seriously considering a head-coaching change after this season. In the meantime, the consensus among people PFW talked to about the Panthers is that, more than anything, mediocre coaching by Fox and his staff is responsible for the team's dismal showing up to now.
Now, we’re not exclusive to this information. It’s readily available to anyone that studies the league from week-to-week and that includes odds makers and bettors. In other words, you don’t need us to tell you the Panthers are a complete dumpster-fire. Also keep in mind that the consensus of just about everybody is that the 49ers have hugely underachieved. So, forget about X’s and O’s. It doesn’t matter. You can take the 49ers and lay a lousy two points if you like and it looks like easy money. It’s not and the odds makers would love nothing more than to see all the money coming in on San Fran and that’s why they set the line so low. Think about it for a moment. If San Fran was a -3½ point choice would it deter you from betting them. Maybe so but it wouldn’t sway you into betting the Panthers taking back 3½. The goal of the odds makers is to “balance the books”, or attract the same amount on both sides in order to collect the vigor but this one will attract nothing but San Fran money and it’s for that reason alone that the play here is the putrid Panthers. It’s a tough sell but one that is very likely to cash. The line says so. Play: Carolina +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
RANDALL THE HANDLE
BEST BETS
Patriots (4-1) at Chargers (2-4)
The Patriots have won two true road games since the beginning of the 2009 season. Now, they must travel about as far as a team can in the continental United States to face a desperate San Diego team that has won both its home games by a combined 79-23. New England’s won-loss record is notably better than San Diego’s but other than the scoreboard, the Chargers are the far superior team. A series of mishaps and special team gaffs have put the Bolts in their current hole but they remain tops in both offensive yards and defensive yards allowed. Conversely, only Houston and Washington have allowed more yards than the Pats. Public perception dictates this appealing short price. TAKING: SAN DIEGO –2
49ers (1-5) at Panthers (0-5)
While the Panthers are limited when at full strength, they’ve been even less than that lately with a bunch of starters being sidelined. That should serve us well here as QB Matt Moore will re-assume control of the offence and he will be assisted by the return of WR Steve Smith. With Carolina winless and the Niners finally achieving victory last week, oddsmakers have warranted San Fran spotting points here. However, the 49ers defeated a weak and depleted Oakland team and having them cross three time zones and give away points is a dangerous proposition and one we diametrically oppose. TAKING: CAROLINA +3
Cardinals (3-2) at Seahawks (3-2)
It’s no secret that this year’s version of the Cardinals is slightly different than last year’s. However, many of the defensive players and coaching staff remain and this same core group won both meetings with the Seahawks last season. The ledger may be balancing a bit but Seattle has historically not performed well in this series with just four covers in previous 15 meetings and in its only game when favoured this season, the ‘Hawks lost in St. Louis. Arizona has also had an extra week of rest which has allowed newbie QB Max Hall to acclimate some with his offence. TAKING: ARIZONA +5 ½
THE REST:
Steelers (4-1) at Dolphins (3-2)
Pittsburgh travels for first time in a month to visit an angry Miami squad that has yet to win on its own turf. Steelers won final regular season contest here last year by 30-24 count in a game that Pitt needed and Miami did not. Dolphins urgency narrows that gap. TAKING: MIAMI +3
Bengals (2-3) at Falcons (4-2)
Recently considered to be amongst the NFC elite, the Falcons have suddenly become...well, the Bengals. Both teams have talent but continually underachieve. That may explain why Cincinnati seldom covers when favoured but has a stellar record (10-3 past 13) when taking points. TAKING: CINCINNATI +3½
Jaguars (3-3) at Chiefs (3-2)
Chiefs have one of the softer schedules from here on out and if they are to seize this division, wins against these types are essential. Kansas City has the coaching and personnel to take advantage of a Jacksonville team that is reeling both on the field and as a franchise. TAKING: KANSAS CITY –8½
Eagles (4-2) at Titans (4-2)
This is Tennessee’s only home game in a six-week span and with road wins traditionally coming at a premium, you can bet the Titans will be putting their best foot forward. That foot may belong to RB Chris Johnson as he should be allotted ample opportunity against a suspect run defence. TAKING: TENNESSEE –3
Redskins (3-3) at Bears (4-2)
Win or lose, it’s difficult to back the Bears when laying points. Chicago’s offensive line is a disaster and any quick remedy seems unlikely. Jay Cutler continues to get batted around like a cat toy and that should suit the unheralded Washington pass rushers just fine. TAKING: WASHINGTON +3
Browns (1-5) at Saints (4-2)
Would have preferred Browns less some key injuries but still leaning Cleveland’s way in a game that may catch New Orleans off guard. Saints feeling better after blowing out Tampa but could have eye on subsequent Sunday nighter with Pittsburgh. Taking points with Brownies is rarely a bad thing. TAKING: CLEVELAND +13
Bills (0-5) at Ravens (4-2)
The Bills are easily the worst team in this league right now. However, with a week off after this one and fresh off an OT affair in Foxborough, Baltimore may not be focused enough to spot prohibitive points, despite meekness of guest. TAKING: BUFFALO +13
Rams (3-3) at Buccaneers (3-2)
Prefer ascending Buccaneers to improving Rams here as St. Louis has had just two away games with latest resulting in a 44-6 shellacking in Motown. Tampa will be pleased to host a team in their class after previous three opponents have been Steelers, Bengals and Saints. TAKING: TAMPA BAY –2½
Raiders (2-4) at Broncos (2-4)
Kyle Boller will start at QB for Oakland and while he can’t be any worse than Bruce Gradkowski or Jason Campbell, calling him the best of the trio would be like calling Moe the smartest stooge. Oakland’s skill position players simply too weak to trade punches with Denver’s potent posse. TAKING: DENVER –8
Vikings (2-3) at Packers (3-3)
If you stick your head out the door when this one kicks off, you may hear booing all the way from Wisconsin. Minnesota’s much-maligned quarterback returns to face his old mates and the Packers will be blood thirsty after Brett Favre’s new team topped them twice last season. TAKING: GREEN BAY –2 ½
Giants (4-2) at Cowboys (1-4)
The Jaguars may want to watch this one to see why they won’t be getting this time slot in the foreseeable future. Despite Dallas’ woeful record, it still has as much talent and firepower as any NFC rival. Giants stock is up while Cowboys is way down and that offers us a discounted price. TAKING: DALLAS –3
EZWINNERS
Pittsburgh Steelers -3
The Steelers eased Big Ben back into the mix last week with a conservative game plan that featured 35 runs and 27 passes against Cleveland. Roethlisberger did well in this game and I expect Pittsburgh to start to open up the offense even more in this game. The Dolphins are coming off of a big overtime win in Green Bay last week, but quarterback Chad Henne was not at the top of his game and I expect him to struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that is once again one of the best in the league. The Steelers defense has only allowed one run of more than twenty yards all season and they shutdown the "Wildcat" that Cleveland attempted to run last week. Expect them to do the same against the Miami running game. The Steelers have won four straight meetings between these teams and are 3-1 against the spread in those games. Expect that success to continue again here. Lay the points.
Craig Trapp
San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -3
CAR is one of the 4 worst teams in the NFL. Plus SF defense is very good at stopping run which is the only thing CAR can do to win. This one is not close as SF will finally get the offense rolling as Gore runs for at least 150 yards.
Chip Chirimbes
San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers +3
This contest may not be the best game on the board but it will one I look at with great interest as the Carolina Panthers (0-5) off a bye seek their first win of the season as the San Francisco 49ers (1-5) come off their first win of the season. This game has such heavy trends in the Panthers favor that we just can't ignore. Lets start with the fact that the Niners are 1-10 against the points in this series including 0-5 at Carolina, add that they are 1-8 against the points as road favorites and add that they are a West coast team playing an early game in the East. Quarterback Matt Moore and wide receiver Steve Smith both return to action and that will give the home team the added boost needed to win.
Spartan
CAR +3 vs SFX
Last sunday the NFL release cashed easily with the Saints throttling the Buccaneers 31-6, let's see if we can nail another one here guys. I suspect there will be a lot of moaning and groaning when most see this selection but hey, I'm not running for office here, just giving my honest views. It appears Joe Public is swarming all over the 49ers in this one. Frankly it puzzles me some, they at last prevail in a game and now they hit the road as a favorite. Just not convinced things are suddenly rosy with Singletarys team yet. They are heading into Carolina to meet a Panthers team desperate for a win and coming off a bye week. I do expect a huge effort here from the Panthers guys. A key factor that is kind of under the radar is the return of star wide out Steve Smith, Smith is still one of the premiere receivers in the league when healthy. With Williams and Stewart carrying the load I do expect the Panthers to find some success against the 49ers defense, coming off the bye and with Smith back in the lineup I expect this Panther offense to show some life after listless performances thus far this season. I'm certainly no trend geek but I did notice that when RB Jonathan Stewart gets at least 14 carries in a game the Panthers are an absolutely stellar 14-0, obviously the key here is to hand off to Stewart the first 14 plays from scrimmage and this is a done deal, lol. One other thing that caught my eyes guys is that San Francisco is 0-5 against the number their last five trips into Carolina. Now with only one win under their belt they come into town as a favorite? To be candid I would not suggest wasting 3 entire hours of your life you can never recover watching this particular game but I do feel in this situation the Panthers warrant a small wager.
Lenny Del Genio
CIN +3.5 vs ATL
The Falcons were exposed quite a bit in last week's 31-17 loss to the Eagles considering Philadelphia missed three field goals and lost WR Jackson early in the first half. Remember that in previous games this year Atlanta won by just two points over one-win San Francisco, needed OT to beat the Saints and were very fortunate to cover against the Browns. This is a great spot for Cincinnati as they are off a bye week and getting points. The Bengals are 10-3 ATS the last 13 times they've been an underdog, winning nine of those games straight up!
King Creole
CLE +14 vs NOS
The defending Super Bowl champions are off only their FIRST cover of the year last week (1-4-1 ATS TY) in the road win versus the Buccaneers. The Saints are 3-13 ATS as a DOUBLE-DIGIT home favorite since the 1992 season, including a PERFECT 0-4 ATS when playing off a DD SU win.
Sharp players already know that it's been a 'DOG YEAR' in the NFL thus far. And the BEST hitting percentage for Underdogs has been:
17-3 ATS for all road dogs playing off a SU and ATS loss (Browns / Bills / Bengals / Raiders). And if our doggie is off a SU loss of 10 > points, the numbers are 11-1 ATS (BROWNS).
In this particular week of the season, BIG favorites suck....
1-8 ATS since 2001: All GAME SEVEN favorites of > 11 points (Saints). In the last 3years, these teams are a perfect 0-4 ATS.
New Orleans is off a road fav win (vs Tampa)... and a roa d fav loss (vs Arizona).
0-4 ATS since 2002: All .666 > home favs playing off a SUATS road fav win... and SUATS road fav loss (Saints).... vs any opponent off a SU loss (BROWNS).
The Saints won by 25 points last week (31 to 6)... while the Browns LOST by 18 points (28 to 10).
3-12 ATS last 4 years: All NFL teams off a SU win of 17 > pts (Saints)... vs a pts (BROWNS). This has ALREADY gone 0-2 ATS this year... and is 1-8 ATS since the '08 season.
Both teams played division opponents last week (New Orl vs T Bay / Clev vs Pitt)...
1-6 ATS since 1999: All GAME 12 or less home teams playing off a SUATS division road win (Saints)... vs an opponent off a SUAST division road loss (BROWNS).
Let's query the INTER-conference aspect of this game (NFC vs AFC)...
1-5 ATS since 2006: All NFC double-digit favorites with an OU line of 42 > points (Saints)... vs any AFC opponent (BROWNS).
Up NEXT for the Saints: A home game with the PITTSBURGH STEELERS.
0-3 ATS last 4 years: All NFC home teams (Saints) BEFORE playing a home game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Rocketman
Buffalo @ Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -13
Buffalo is 0-5 overall this year while Baltimore comes in with a 4-2 overall record on the season. Baltimore is 22-10 ATS last 3 years when playing on grass. Baltimore is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS last 3 years as a home favorite of 10 1/2 to 14 points. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS last 3 years as a favorite of 10 or more points. Buffalo is allowing 32.2 points per game overall this year and 36 points per game on the road this season. Baltimore is scoring 27.5 points per game at home this year and allowing 15.8 points per game overall this year. Baltimore is 3-0 ATS at home vs Buffalo since 1992. We'll recommend a small play on Baltimore today!
James Patrick Sports
Browns vs. Saints
CLEVELAND is (10-0) ATS UNDER the Total against NFC South division opponents since 1992. Both Josh Cribbs (13 rec., 175 yds, 1 TD) and Mohamed Massaquoi (21-115-1) suffered concussions in last week’s loss at Pittsburgh and are unlikely to play on Sunday. The Saints are expected to be without RB Pierre Thomas for a fourth straight game due to his high ankle sprain. Cleveland is (17-5) ATS UNDER in dome games since 1992 while the World Champions are (26-11) ATS UNDER after a 2 game road trip since 1992. In Sunday NFL action Big Game James Patrick 's complimentary selection is Cleveland - New Orleans Under the Total.
Sports Insights
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
This matchup remains the heaviest-bet game of the week. The game is generating a lot of betting interest as it pits one of the NFL's elite teams (Baltimore) against one of the worst (the lowly Buffalo Bills). This season, the Ravens have already beaten several of the league's best teams -- including the Jets and Steelers. The Ravens lost a tough overtime game to the Patriots last week, but this showed many sports fans that the Ravens are, indeed, one of the NFL's elite teams this year.
On the other hand, the Buffalo Bills are one of just two remaining winless teams in the NFL this year. What do the NFL marketplace indicators say? With this game currently being the heaviest-bet game of the week, more than 80% of the bettors are putting their hard-earned money on the Ravens, even with the big point spread. CRIS opened the line at Baltimore -13.5, but even with the heavy action on Baltimore, the line is generally available at Baltimore -13. This "reverse line movement" is an indication of "sharp money" on the Buffalo Bills.
Our readers know that we like to "bet against the Public" -- and especially like to follow the coattails of the "sharps." We sometimes need bad teams to do good things -- and this is one of those weeks. We also like the big 13 or 14 points on Buffalo, when Baltimore has averaged just 18.7 points per game (21st best in the NFL), and has a net margin of just +17 points (Points For minus Points Against) in six games (with their 4-2 record, although versus the likes of the Steelers, Pats, and Jets).
Finally, we like the fact that Buffalo had a bye-week last week -- giving them extra time to prepare for this game. If you shop around, you can grab the Bills +14.
Buffalo Bills +14
Jimmy Moore
San Francisco @ Carolina
Pick: Carolina +3
Tough spot here for San Francisco as they are a west coast team playing an early game on the east coast and they are favored. The 49ers have been a big disappointment this season and there really isn't much reason to think they can be inspired for this game today. Carolina will be giving it their all in front of the home crowd and the QB's are battling for playing time. Take the points with the live home dog in this one.