Jack Clayton
Cardinals at Seahawks
Pick: Cardinals
The Cardinals (3-2 SU/2-3 ATS) come off their bye week after that stunning 30-20 win over the Saints, going with rookie RB Max Hall (0 TDs, 2 INTs). No, his numbers aren’t good, but he won his debut as an NFL starter, completing 17 of 27 passes for 168 yards. The Cards are off in Week 6, which should give Hall some added time to recuperate from his aches and pains. Wideouts Steve Breaston and Early Doucet could be back come Week 7, which can only help Hall's cause following the team's bye.
Chuck O'Brien
Steelers (-3) at DOLPHINS
For Sunday’s first of two complimentary NFL selections, take the Steelers-Dolphins game OVER the posted total.
It took just one game to see what a difference Ben Roethlisberger makes to the Steelers offense. Although Roethlisberger was hardly flawless, he still finished 16-for-27 for 257 yards with three TDs and one INT, leading the Steelers to 28 points – not bad for a guy who had to sit out the first few weeks of the season. I know the counterargument will be, “Yeah, but it was against the Browns,” but Cleveland went into that game allowing an average of just 19 ppg and had held its first five opponents to 24 points or less.
Now Roethlisberger gets to face the Dolphins, who opened the season with two solid defensive efforts against Trent Edwards and the Bills (10 points allowed) and the aging Brett Favre and the Vikings (10 points). Since then, the Jets’ Mark Sanchez (31 points), the Patriots’ Tom Brady (41 points) and the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (20 points) have lit up the scoreboard against Miami (though in all fairness, the Patriots did most of their damage on special teams and defense).
Speaking of defense, we know how good Pittsburgh’s has been this season, giving up just 12 points and less than 300 yards per game. But that defense hasn’t exactly played a bunch of offensive juggernauts – the best QB the Steelers have faced is Atlanta’s Matt Ryan. The others: Vince Young/Kerry Collins, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco and Colt McCoy. I’m not saying Miami’s Chad Henne is Dan Marino, but he’s got a cannon for an arm which can at least stretch Pittsburgh’s D and open up running lanes for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.
These teams last met in last year’s season finale, and Pittsburgh prevailed in a 30-24 shootout in South Beach. That’s part of a 9-1 “over” run for the Dolphins at home. Also, the “over” is on streaks of 21-10-1 for the Steelers in AFC play, 8-3 when the Steelers are a road favorite, 22-8-1 for the Steelers when favored by three points or less, 4-1-1 when Miami plays against the AFC and 4-1 when Miami is a home ‘dog.
3♦ OVER
Arizona at SEATTLE (-7)
For Sunday’s second of two NFL complimentary selections, take the Seahawks as a home favorite against Arizona.
This is the second career start – and first on the road – for Cardinals rookie free-agent QB Max Hall, and he’s flying into a hornet’s nest. Seattle is one of THE toughest venues in the entire NFL, and that’s proven by the fact the Seahawks are 2-0 SU and ATS at home this year with wins over the 49ers (31-6) and Chargers (27-20), both as an underdog. Seattle also showed me a lot last week when it went to Chicago and outplayed the Bears in a 23-20 road win as a six-point underdog (the score was only that close because of a Devin Hester punt return).
Meanwhile, since opening the season with a lucky 17-13 win at St. Louis, Arizona has twice gotten thumped on the road, losing 41-7 at Atlanta and 41-10 in San Diego. Trust me, the environments in Atlanta and San Diego are far less intimidating than what Hall and the Cardinals will face at Qwest Field (which prides itself and drawing the most opponents’ false-start penalties in the league).
Additionally, although the Cardinals knocked off the defending-champion Saints 30-20 two weeks ago before going on their bye, they really got outplayed. New Orleans gained 358 yards and held Arizona to just 194 yards, but three uncharacteristic Drew Brees interceptions (plus a lost fumble) proved too much for the Saints to overcome. And since their season-opening win over the Rams, the Cardinals have been severely outgained in each of their last four games. The total yardage difference: 177 (at Atlanta), 137 (vs. Oakland), 285 (at San Diego) and 164 (vs. New Orleans).
That tells me the Cardinals’ 3-2 record is a major fluke, and the inevitable correction is coming. Arizona has failed to cover in five of its last six away from the desert going back to last year, while Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as a home chalk. Finally, the host has covered in six of the last eight meetings between these NFC West foes, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
3♦ SEATTLE
Karl Garrett
Pittsburgh (-3) at MIAMI
Your freebie for Sunday is to go with Pittsburgh minus the points on the road over the Miami Dolphins.
Miami has been a strange team, as they always seem to rise to the occasion on the road, but at home it has been a different story. The 'Fins are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread on the highway, but 0-2 both straight up and against the spread at home this season.
That lack of success at home has been an on-going issue for Miami, as they 6-20 against the spread their last 26 at home, and it sure doesn't get any easier against a Pittsburgh team that has won and covered 4 of their first 5 games, and will also be getting better by the week now that Ben Roethlisberger is back under center.
This is the start of 3 in a row on the road for the Steelers, and they know just how important it is to get off on the right foot.
With the road team in Miami's games a perfect 5-0 this year, the G-Man will stick with that winning formula and back the Steelers minus the points.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Joel Tyson
Cincinnati (+3') at ATLANTA
Not sure what to make of the puzzling result the Falcons had last week in their loss at Philadelphia, as Atlanta was dominated in that game, and I certainly don't want any parts of laying any points with this team today.
Cincinnati comes to Atlanta fresh off their bye week, and they know full well that the 2 losses they suffered just before their bye need to be erased in a hurry.
Dating back to the start of last season, the underdog in Bengal games stands at 18-4 against the spread their last 22 games.
That is a pretty significant stat if you ask me, and with the Falcons just 2-2 against the spread as the favorite this year, I am feeling like the points will work in this spot.
Atlanta has been on the road in 4 of their first 6 games this season, and they do have their bye week on-deck, but by the looks of last week's flat effort against the Eagles this Atlanta team's gas tank could use a fill-up.
Mark me down for a play on the Bengals plus the number.
2♦ CINCINNATI
New England (+3) at SAN DIEGO
Late day comp play winner on the Patriots plus the points over the Chargers.
I know the Chargers last pair of losses both occured on the road, and I know the Bolts are 2-0 both straight up and against the spread at home this season, but this team is just not the same as previous Charger teams, and I think they are ripe for another loss.
New England won a "gut check" game last week at home over Baltimore, and they have covered in 7 of their last 10 tries as a road underdog.
Just not seeing "it" from the Chargers this year, and I will gladly take any points they are offering with the Pats this Sunday afternoon.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Tom Freese
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 4-2 straight this year. The Falcons are 14-3 ATS their last 17 games following a loss. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in Week 7 and they are 34-16-4 ATS after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their last game. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS their last 10 home games. Cincinnati is 2-3 straight up this year. Simply put October is a bad month for the Bengals as they are 17-35-2 ATS their 54 October games. The Bengals are 3-10 ATS their last 13 games and they are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games after gaining more than 350 yards in their last game.
Scott Rickenbach
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
We are not generally fond of laying big points in the NFL but the Bills are simply awful and the Ravens come into this match-up with plenty of emotion! Baltimore is fired up after they let their big lead slip away at New England Sunday as they lost to the Patriots in overtime. The Bills, statistically, are one of the worst teams in the league and they face a physical, tough Ravens defense that, particularly at home, will be focused on totally shutting down the Bills anemic offense.
This has been the way of Baltimore's defense in recent years. A "not in our house" mentality. On the other side of the ball the determined Ravens offense will roll through the Bills struggling defense as Buffalo needs more than a bye week to get their team back on track! Look for the Bills to drop to 3-7 ATS in October games the last three seasons. As for the Ravens, look for them to improve to 7-1 ATS as a double digit favorite the last three seasons AND to improve to an amazing 10-1 ATS when facing a team with a losing record over the last three seasons. Consider a small play on Baltimore minus the big points on Sunday afternoon.
Frank Jordan
Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -8
Denver could use a boost as they are 1-2 at home so far and two games back of the first place Chiefs. Oakland is also 2-4, but the road has been rather unkind with an 0-3 road record this season. Look for the altitude to come into play for Oakland and cause they to loose steam late in the game allowing Denver to have their way with them in the fourth quarter.
Steve Merril
Washington Redskins vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Chicago Bears -3
This a possible flat spot for the Redskins as they are coming off two close and hard fought home games versus Green Bay and Indianapolis. The Redskins had a misleading 16-13 overtime win versus the Packers two weeks ago in which the Green Bay held a 427-373 total yardage edge and a 6.4-5.0 yards per play edge. Last week, the Colts won 27-24 on Sunday night, but Indianapolis thoroughly outplayed the Redskins with a 469-335 total yard advantage and a 6.9-4.7 yards per play edge. Chicago is coming off a straight-up home favorite loss versus Seattle last week, but the Bears should bounce-back with a better effort this week. Chicago rates as the better team in this game and they are outgaining their opponents 5.4-4.9 yards per play this season, while the Redskins are being outgained 5.7-6.0 yards per play.
Scott Spreitzer
Redskins @ Bears
PICK: Under 40.5
Mike Martz did it again. After finding success with a run-based offense two games ago, Martz decided to all but abandon the run for the passing of Jay Cutler when he returned to health last week. But after suffering a cold hard lesson, I believe Lovie Smith will override a stubborn Mike Martz, and the Bears will look to run the ball first against the Skins. Let's not forget that under Martz' direction, the Bears were 0-12 converting third downs a week ago, and they've converted just 12% of their chances since week 2. They'll have to balance out the offense, or Cutler could be on his back all afternoon again. Washington may not have a great sack attack, but they have done well against the other pass-happy teams on their slate. Both teams are averaging less than 19 ppg. And Chicago is averagng just 285 total yards per game, so they ought to be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Redskin defense. The Skins' offense is banged-up at RB and TE. And speaking of the TE position, McNabb wants to utilize Cooley as much as possible. But Chicago is one of the few defenses that doesn't have to draw help from over the top to cover the TE position, making Washington's offensive schemes even harder to pull off. The Under is on a 10-4 run in Bears' games. Meanwhile, the Redskins are on a 23-8 run to the Under against teams that allow 17 or fewer ppg. I'm playing the Under between the Skins & Bears on Sunday.
Tom Stryker
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -13
Off a week of rest, the temptation could be there to side with the winless Bills plus the points in this contest. Unfortunately, the Ravens check in off a frustrating road loss to the Patriots and they'll be champing at the bit to get back on the winning track.
If you want to fade Baltimore, do it when the Black Birds are on the road and not at home. In their own backyard, the Ravens are on a profitable 54-32 ATS run including a tremendous 30-12 ATS if they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up loss. If this is a non-division game and they enter off a non-division affair, this team trends improves to a nearly perfect 16-1 SU and ATS!
There is a unique rest situation that goes against Buffalo here too. Since 1997, NFL regular season rested road underdogs priced at +7 or more are a soft 10-36 SU and 18-26-2 ATS provided they're coming off a bye week. If our "play against" side is battling a foe that sports a won/loss percentage of .570 or better, this angle slips to a woeful 4-23 SU and 8-17-2 ATS! That doesn't bode well for the Bills!
On the defensive side of things, Buffy is having a hard time stopping the run. During their week off, the Bills actually switched their scheme from a 3-4 to a 4-3 to try and tighten things up. In time, that just might pay dividends. But, Baltimore RB Ray Rice is a load and, after getting stuffed in the second half at New England, he'll be looking to run wild here.
When matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .650, Buffalo has struggled posting a weak 9-40 SU and 16-31-2 ATS record. Meanwhile, the Ravens have nailed 21 of their last 29 as a favorite of -8 or more and they'll be able to leave it all on the field with their bye on deck. Take Baltimore.
BIG AL
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears
PICK: Chicago Bears -3
Last week, the Bears fell at home to the Seattle Seahawks, 23-20 as a 6.5-point favorite. That dropped Lovie Smith's squad's record to 4-2 on the season. But off that home loss, we'll back the Bears today at Soldier Field, as winning teams are 82-53 ATS at home off a home loss since 1980, provided they're not favored by 9 or more points. What this illustrates is that winning teams tend to not play back-to-back bad games, if both are at home. Look for the Bears to blow out the Redskins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Monday Night Football Game of the Year, as it falls into a 100% Perfect ATS System that's 15-0 since 1980. We're also a perfect 10-0 on our Monday Night Football Games of the Month/Year over the past 3 seasons, so pick it up right now.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Carolina Panthers +3
I'll back a hungry Panthers team, looking for its first win of the season, at home off a bye, especially since its opponent (49ers) has looked bad on the road this season. The 49ers haven't done anything to deserve to lay points on the road here. Plus, I really like the move Carolina has made to go back to Matt Moore as their starting QB. I'm confident he plays much better today after gaining some perspective from the sidelines the last few weeks. Plus, star wideout Steve Smith is expected to return. We just can't ignore the fact that the 49ers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.0 or fewer points. They are also just 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series, including 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Carolina. Take the Panthers.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
St. Louis may have shocked the Chargers last week, but I'm not sold on a team that was blown out by 38 points at Detroit in its last road game. Off a blowout loss to the Saints, the Bucs will be ready to bounce back strong at home.
The Rams have a poor history against the Bucs. In fact, they are 0-5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It also can't be overlooked that St. Louis is only 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less. The Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.0 points or less.
Following a lopsided home defeat to Pittsburgh, the Bucs went on the road in their next game and defeated a talented Cincinnati team. That win showed a lot of resiliency. With St. Louis still riding high from its victory over the Chargers, I expect it to run into a buzz saw in Tampa Bay. Lay the points.