Doc's Sports
Take Miami +6½ over New Orleans
The Saints have been the most impressive team thus far in 2009 and will enter this game in Miami with a perfect 5-0 record. That being said, this will be their first tough road game of the season since their first two were at Buffalo and at Philadelphia (without QB McNabb). The Fish are coming off of a bye and with a win here they can even up their record at three games apiece on the season. QB Chad Henne looked outstanding in his first action of the season against New York last game and he now gives the Dolphins a deep threat because of his strong arm. This is a perfect compliment to the Wildcat package and expect the Dolphins to own time of possession in this game. Miami wins this game straight-up and getting points in just an added bonus.
Robert Ferringo
Take Arizona (+7) over N.Y. Giants
What about New York’s 21-point blowout loss at New Orleans would suggest that they should be laying a full score to the defending NFC Champions? New Orleans rocked the Giants last week for one reason: they couldn’t stop Brees and the passing game. Now the depleted New York secondary will have to slow down Kurt Warner, Larry Fitz, Anquan Boldin and the rest of the Cardinals offense. It’s just a bad matchup. Arizona has won each of its last two road games in domination fashion. And while this is a trip East for a team from the Pacific Time zone, any sort of jetlag is negated by the late start. Arizona’s front seven might be the most underrated in the league right now and I think they will hold up against the Giants rushing attack. That should make this a pass-happy game and I don’t know if we can say that favors New York. This one could go either way. And the fact that the Cardinals are bigger dogs than Kansas City or Oakland this week is stunning to me. Arizona is 5-0 ATS! as a dog and 8-2 ATS overall.
WUNDERDOG
Minnesota at Pittsburgh
Pick: Minnesota +6
The Steelers by default are going to be facing pointspreads that are juiced all season simply because they are the reigning Superbowl Champs. We faded them successfully last week and it worked out and I'm doing the same this week. The Vikings come into this game at 6-0 and I don't remember a 6-0 team ever getting this many points in a game. I went back to 1989 and found just one time a 6-0 team played as an underdog, and it was back in 2006 when the Colts were a 2.5 point dog to the Broncos in Denver. The Colts went on to win that game outright. The fact is that 6-0 teams are 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, including the one time they have been posted as an underdog. While the Steelers have won three straight, they have covered just once and on the season, going 1-5 ATS thus far. Despite playing a schedule of teams that are a combined 11-23 on the season, Pittsburgh has outscored these teams by a grand total of just 28 points. You can take any two teams the Steelershave played to date, and they don't have more wins than the Vikings! This is a statement game for the Vikings, because if they knock off the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they will be in the conversation for the best team in the league. Brett Favre has found a comfortable home in Minnesota, mainly because he has Adrian Peterson who is a constant threat out of the backfield to break off a long one. Pittsburgh has become a pass-happy team (not good), and the Vikings have 21 sacks on the season and will be putting pressure on Big Ben. We have seen that take its toll before on the Steelers' offense. This one sets up to be a field-goal-type game (my computer matchup agrees), so getting this many points is certainly an overlay and bonus. I'll ride with the red-hot Vikings here.
Randall The Handle
KANSAS CITY +1.89 over San Diego
Yeah, the Chiefs are not exactly a good football team but they’re coming on a bit and one win can do wonders to team morale. You can double that when that wins comes on the road. The Chiefs went into Washington and beat the Skins 14-6 after an OT loss to the Boys the previous week. They’ve already played Philly, Baltimore, the Giants and the aforementioned Cowboys and that’s a pretty decent quartet. They seem to be getting better with each week and as Matt Cassell becomes more comfortable in his new digs with his new teammates, he, too, is becoming more confident and definitely more dangerous. The best news is the heartless Chargers will come to town and this is a team that is simply unworthy of being road chalk. The defense is about as soft as it gets and their pass rush is probably the lamest the league has to offer. The Chargers allow the opposing QB to stand in the pocket and find open receiver after open receiver. In it’s biggest game of the year last week on Monday Night Football, the Chargers allowed two punt returns for TD’s, they allowed 34 points to the Broncos while scoring just three of their own in the second half. A close looks shows the Chargers two wins have come against Oakland in week one by the slimmest of margins (24-20) and a win over Miami in week 3 in the game that the Fish lost Chad Pennington and had to rely on Chad Henne in relief making his NFL debut. Bottom line is the Chargers are a soft, gutless, unmotivated team playing on the road on a short week in a very difficult setting. The Chiefs are coming on and while the +4½ points are tempting, the money line offers up way too much value to pass up on. Play: Kansas City +1.89 (Risking 2 units).
MIAMI +6 over New Orleans
My philosophy of selling high applies to this game, as the Saints stock is soaring through the roof after its dismantling of the Giants last week. That easy win over what was considered a top quality team, combined with the Saints perfect 6-0 record, has the Saints popularity and expectations as high as its ever been. The oddsmakers know it’s hard to bet against New Orleans and it’s very easy to pull the trigger on them laying less than a converted TD. That’s an enticing line for the betting public, laying –6 and not –7. Don’t get me wrong, the Saints are the straight goods and look almost unbeatable with a slew of talented receivers and a QB, Drew Brees that just might be the best in the business. However, there’s always a right time to “step in” against a team and this is that time to go against the Saints after its well-documented blowout of the Giants. Enter the Dolphins, whose style is perfect for this enemy. You all might remember that Monday Night game a few weeks back when the Dolphins entertained the Colts and held the ball for 45 minutes. They eventually lost that game by four points but they dominated everything but the scoreboard. The Saints and the Colts are extremely similar in styles but now Chad Henne has a whole lot more experience and he’s really beginning to impress. Miami’s wildcat offense is wickedly good and even when 22 guys on the field and the whole coaching staff knows it’s coming, they still can’t stop it. Anyway, the bottom line here is that the time is right to go against the Saints and these Dolphins are the perfect fit. I’m calling the upset but will accept the points. Note: Wait until just before game time to wager on this one because we’re sure to get a better number. I’ll update late Sunday morning to the actual price but I expect it’ll be +6½ or +6 and plus money. Play: Miami +6 (Risking 2.12 units).
Dave Blezow
Jets (-6) over RAIDERS: Unlike the above pick, this one is counterintuitive, since most of the evidence points to the Raiders as moderate home ‘dogs. The Jets were a disastrous 0-4 on the West Coast last season, including an unfathomable 16-13 overtime loss in Oakland, where they have done badly historically. Still, just expect this will be the week the Jets rebound on both sides, with a shutdown game from Rex Ryan’s defense and a better performance by Mark Sanchez.
CHIEFS (+41/2) over Chargers: San Diego won both of last year’s meetings by one point, 20-19 in San Diego (the game in which Herm Edwards went for two instead of the tie with 23 seconds to go) and 22-21 in KC. Matt Cassel (6 TDs, 0 INTs in his last four games) can get it done vs. a shoddy Chargers defense.
Colts (-13) over RAMS: The Colts have won 14 in a row and the Rams have lost 16 in a row. So the question isn’t who, but by how much? With Peyton Manning & Co. off a bye and safety Bob Sanders and corner Kelvin Hayden possibly returning, how much is probably going to be a lot.
Bears (+1) over BENGALS: Even though they lost 21-14, came away impressed with the Bears on Sunday night in Atlanta. Like the way Jay Cutler is utilizing his speedsters Devin Hester and Garrett Wolfe, and believe Matt Forte will score more often than he fumbles. Not totally sold on the Bengals, despite their 4-2 mark.
Packers (-9) over BROWNS: Browns have covered three weeks in a row, but a bad flu bug is going through their locker room this week. If the Pack can protect Aaron Rodgers, this should be a double-digit victory without much trouble.
STEELERS (-41/2) over Vikings: Amazingly, Brett Favre has thrown just two interceptions in the Vikes’ 6-0 start, the fewest in any six-game period in his career. He’ll have to remain nearly perfect to keep up with Ben Roethlisberger, who should pick up torching the Vikings defense where Joe Flacco left off.
Buccaneers (+141/2) over Patriots
(in London): Even after the Pats’ 59-0 wipeout of the Titans, they are averaging only 12.4 more points per game than the winless Bucs, and giving up 12.8 fewer. Both of those are below this spread. Question is, will the long trip and strange surroundings make for a closer game? The first two NFL games in London ended in margins of three (Giants 13, Dolphins 10) and five points (Saints 37, Chargers 32).
49ers (+3) over TEXANS: Love this spot for the 49ers, who have had two weeks to stew over a 45-10 home loss to the Falcons. Not only that, they get Frank Gore back, and No. 1 pick Michael Crabtree will be making his NFL debut at receiver.
PANTHERS (-7) over Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick was only 10-of-25 in the win at the Jets, which was built on six Bills interceptions. Jake Delhomme has thrown 10 picks, but it’s not wise to base a selection solely on the expectation of turnovers.
DOLPHINS (+6) over Saints: New Orleans has thrived with a strong pass rush and ball-hawking secondary to get to 5-0, but the Wildcat will mute those strengths and identify weaknesses. Drew Brees has thrown for 362 yards and no TDs in two games vs. the AFC East (Bills, Jets), and 1,038 yards and 13 TDs in the other three games. It’s the Peter Tocco/Odd Couple pick of the week (3-2).
Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS: The Cowboys need the game more and will be rested off their bye, but top to bottom the Falcons seem to be the better team, and are too good a buy to pass up at more than a field goal.
MONDAY NIGHT
REDSKINS (+7) over Eagles: Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell both should benefit from management’s decision to have Sherm Lewis call the offensive plays. And with the ‘Skins allowing just 16 points a game, the full touchdown seems enough at home.
BEST BETS: Packers, Colts, Panthers.
MTi Sports
Indianapolis Colts at St. Louis Rams
The Colts are 11-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) as a road favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Rams are 0-10 ATS (-12.5 ppg) as a dog on artificial turf after a straight up loss on the road and 0-8 ATS (-14.5 ppg) after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. The league is 0-10 ATS (-7.8 ppg) as a home dog after a loss as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half.
Play on: Indianapolis
VEGAS EXPERTS
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins
This appears to be a very dangerous spot for the unbeaten Saints to be laying points on the road. It will be their first game on a natural surface. Off an impressive win over the Giants last week, they are in letdown mode. They have back to back division home games on deck. The Dolphins have won two straight and are off their bye week. They have averaged just over 200 yards rushing in that pair of wins and are even better at stopping the run than are the Saints.
Play on: Miami
Game Time Sports Advisors
New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Under 44.5
Going to go UNDER the total in London. History shows us this is a sloppy game. Fatigue, weather, whatever. Tampa Bay doesn't bring much of an offense with them even in the US. Not looking for a great showing here either. NE was lights out last week in pitching basically a perfect game vs Titans. They can't play at the level again. Even in a something ugly, Brady and company will keep this under. 34-3 Pats.
Vernon Croy
New York Jets vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Oakland Raiders +6
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Raiders are coming off a huge win against one of the best teams in the NFL so they will be very confident coming into this game. The Jets were just beat at home as 9 point favorites by a bad Bills team and Oakland is one of the most hostile places in the NFL to play in so I look for Mark Sanchez to struggle. The Raiders defense has looked great at times this season and they just held a potent Eagles offense to just 9 points so this will be anything but a walk in the park for the Jets offense that is led by a young Mark Sanchez. The Jets offense is only averaging 156 pypg this season while completing just 51.8% of their passes and they are only averaging 16.7 ppg over their last 3 games played. The Jets are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss. The Jets are also just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 games between these two teams and the Raiders win last week was definitely not a fluke as they ending up winning SU despite turning the ball over 2 more times than the Eagles. The Raiders were the better team last week and they show up again this week so grab the points with the Oakland Raiders Sunday.
Matt Fargo
New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: New England Patriots -14.5
New England is coming off a dominating performance last Sunday at home in the snow against Tennessee. The question raised is New England really back or is Tennessee just that bad? I think it is a little bit of both but a victory like that can go a long way in restoring confidence to a team that was severely lacking. The Patriots head to London to try and keep that momentum going and even though it is against arguably the worst team in the NFL, they have a bye next week so there will be no chance of a letdown or a lookahead. New England needed that win last week following a brutal loss to Denver in overtime. Following the bye week, the Patriots have two divisional home games sandwiched around a road game at Indianapolis so they cannot afford to slip up here. The Buccaneers came closer to a win again last week at home against Carolina but they lost in the final seconds to drop to 0-6 on the year. For the sixth straight time, they were outgained by the opposition and most importantly, they were outrushed by 143 yards which was the third time this season they have been outgained on the ground by at least that many yards. For the season, Tampa Bay is allowing 171.7 ypg which is second to last in the NFL and that probably is not going to get better here. With the Patriots shorthanded at wide receiver, there could be plenty of opportunities for the running game to get going against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have played the 28th ranked schedule in the NFL so they are not only losing but losing to bad teams including Buffalo and Washington on the road. After the performance last week, the Patriots moved to fourth in the NFL with 404.7 ypg and while the 59 points skewed the points scored, they are averaging 27.2 ppg, sixth in the league and they have scored 25 or more points in four of their six games. To no surprise, all of those games resulted in wins. Quarterback Tom Brady looked really good last week and definitely played his best game of the season. He missed open receivers and left a lot of plays on the field and his big problem was missing those receivers deep. Tampa Bay is allowing 199 ypg through the air which is 11th in the NFL and while that may seem solid, it is an illusion. Teams have not had to pass very much because of either big leads or having too much success running the ball. Teams have thrown against Tampa Bay only 148 times which is third fewest in the league and there are problems with that. The Buccaneers are allowing 8.5 ypa which is the worst in the NFL and that is a truer indication of how the pass defense is performing. Also, they are allowing quarterbacks to post an average passer rating of 101.0 which is third worst in the league so you can bet Brady will be licking his chops and come through with another huge game. The travel time and time difference could have a significant impact on the teams and the Patriots are already at an advantage. They were scheduled to arrive in London on Friday morning, while the Bucs were slated to land Friday night and that 12 hours can make a world of difference. There is one big situation that is favoring New England this weekend. Play on favorites of 6.5 to 15 points that have a bye the following week. This simple yet solid situation is 25-8 ATS (75.8 percent) since 2002 with the average score differential being +18.6 ppg. The Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for more than 175 yards last game and hey are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games away from home after allowing fewer than 200 yards last game so have been able to carry that success over. 3* New England Patriots
Tony Karpinski
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: New Orleans Saints -6
What happens when the Miami Dolphins fall behind by double digits and can’t run their wildcat offense that gives good teams such problems? Against Atlanta and San Diego, teams that can pass the ball with consistency, they fell behind early and ended up losing because they had to pass the ball to get out of it.
The Saints are a streaky team offensively and when they have one great offensive game another one follows. They scored 45 points against Detroit to open the season and followed it with a 48-point performance against the Eagles. They have won by an 23 points per game on the road and I don’t expect this game to be much different. Miami has a tough time stopping the Saints passing game and it gets out of hand early. New Orleans wins 35-16.
John Ryan
Indianapolis Colts vs. St Louis Rams
Play: St Louis Rams +13
Ai Simulator has a 3* grading on the Rams. I had a 7* winner on Oakland last week, who won SU as a 14.5 point dog over the Philadelphia Eagles and this play shapes in a very similar manner. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-10 making 27 units since 2004. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team sporting a <=25 win percentage and now playing a team with a winning record. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 77-37 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games facing an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. Colts come into this game gaining less than 99 yards in 2 straight games. Note that they are just 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. In fact, 4 of the last 5 games have seen the Colts have far less than 100, which once again makes them a 1 dimensional team this year. The Rams have enough on the defensive front to sustain I do believe that the Rams secondary will matchup quite well like the Raiders did last week against the Eagles. Granted, Manning is far superior QB than McNabb, but the same sort of situations exist in this game. The Rams have moved the ball quite well at times, but turnovers, fumbles, and penalties have negated scoring opportunities. In their 2 home games they are averaging 368 yards, which is far better than what they have done on the road. The Raiders played at home as well. Take St. Louis
Rocketman
Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Over 46
Minnesota is 5-1 OVER in all games this year. Minnesota is 8-2 OVER the past 3 years in non-conference games. Minnesota is scoring 31.5 points per game overall this year and 33 points per game on the road this season. Pittsburgh is scoring 26 points per game at home this year. Over is 9-0 in Vikings last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 7-1 in Vikings last 8 games as a road underdog. Over is 34-16-3 in Vikings last 53 games following a ATS loss. Over is 23-9-1 in Steelers last 33 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 41-17-2 in Steelers last 60 home games. Over is 38-16-2 in Steelers last 56 games as a home favorite. I'm expecting these two to light it up here today. We'll recommend a small play on OVER THE TOTAL today!
Craig Trapp
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: New Orleans Saints -6
Last week we saw the Saints absolutely destroy a very good Giants team. Proving at the same time that they are not the finesse team that everyone claimed them to be. This week they once again will prove why they are a serious threat to win it all this year as they have to face a very physical Dolphins team. The good news is the best offense in the league will score early and often for the Saints. That will make the Dolphins have to abandon the run early in the game and take away their strength. Actually think this one might get out of hand early and NO easily covers this spread!
Marc Lawrence
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Chicago Bears
The Bears battle the Bengals in Cincinnati in a matchup of two teams each coming off snapped win streaks. Chicago saw its three-game skein snapped in a seven-point loss at Atlanta last week while Cincinnati's four-game streak ended in an 11-point loss against Houston. With that we note that Game Six dogs off one-loss exact with a win percentage of .600 are 20-10 ATS. With the Bengals 1-8 ATS at home against a .500 or greater opponent when Cincinnati owns a .500 or greater record, we'll back the Bears here today.