Scott Spreitzer
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
The end seems near for Norv Turner's run in San Diego. The team has declined in wins each season since he was hired to replace Marty Schottenheimer. Last year the Bolts squeeked into the postseason, but the team will be hard-pressed to return to the postseason in 2009. These teams are definitely headed in the opposite direction. KC has improved SU and ATS the last three games, going -11, -6, and +8 SU, and -2, +1.5, and +14.5 ATS. The Chargers meanwhile, have gone +10, -10, -11 SU, and +4, -4, -14.5 ATS over their last three games. Part of SDG's problem has been their defensive third down rates. San Diego's opposition has converted 33 of 65 third downs, a huge, 51% rate. And the Chargers are minus-32 in redzone scoring, producing 73 points while allowing 105. Believe it or not, KC is just minus-1 in this category. Kansas City is also 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine as a divisional home dog. The Chiefs are definitely improving while the Chargers' frustrations continue to mount. I'll take the points with the team in better current form, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Scott Rickenbach
Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams
PICK: Indianapolis Colts -13.5
Last week, right here in this spot, we finally had a big favorite that absolutely did not work out. However, for most of the season it has been they kind of year that has people asking “whatever happened to parity in the NFL?” So far this season it continues to be a picture of the “rich getting richer” while the downtrodden teams continue to get hammered on a weekly basis. Overall, there have been a ton of blowouts this season in the NFL and the best versus worst disparity seems to be growing by a larger margin than ever. To support our general analysis about this, take note that the numbers do not lie. Double digit favorites in the NFL this season are already 11-4 this season! This general trend is unlikely to change this week in St Louis as the struggling Rams are primed to get pummeled by the rested Colts. While Indianapolis is in great shape and coming off of their bye week, note that the Rams suffered a very demoralizing overtime loss at Jacksonville last week. The Jaguars are not a very good football team as their defense has been exposed on many occasions already this season. That said, it’s tough to imagine the Rams offense doing any better this week than they did last week as now St Louis must contend with a Colts defense that has been rock solid against the pass this season. Also, the Rams defense has been struggling mightily this season and they now must contend with the #1 passing attack in the league and a rested Peyton Manning at quarterback!
St Louis is one of three winless teams and they were absolutely pummeled by the Vikings two weeks ago 38-10. We know this is a big spread for the Colts to cover here but the Rams, whether it’s offensive turnovers or extreme defense lapses, just continue to find ways to lose and, most often, it’s by very big margins. The big concern here for St Louis is that they may not have much “left in the tank” after the tough overtime loss to Jacksonville. The Rams really let the game get away from them in regulation and then the overtime period saw their defense getting worn out on the field as the Jaguars methodically moved down the field against them for the winning score. It’s certainly not a good scenario for having the Rams prepared for a fresh Colts team, off a bye week, and ready to resume running like the “well-oiled machine” that they’ve been this season. Note that Indianapolis has covered four straight times after a bye week. The Colts are also on a 12-5 ATS run in road games! Already this season the Rams are an ugly 2-4 ATS while the Colts are a solid 4-1 against the number. Another blowout is on the NFL schedule Sunday and this one occurs in St Louis! Consider a small play on the COLTS Sunday.
LARRY NESS
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
PICK: San Francisco 49ers +3
The Texans have gone 8-8 the last two seasons but are still looking for their first winning season since joining the NFL in 2002. Will this be the year? The Texans are 3-3 coming into Sunday's game (with a little luck they could be 5-1, 4-2 at worse) and are trying to move to 4-3 for just the second time in team history. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 3-2 and coming off a bye. They can't be in a very good mood after losing 45-10 at home to the Falcons in Week 5. Singletary has made quite a difference in this club (Niners are 9-3-1 ATS since he took over) and he's made them the type of physical team which has given the Texans trouble in the past. Shaun Hill continues to surprise at QB (now 10-5 as an NFL starter) and San Fran welcomes back RB Frank Gore (241 YR / 6.2 YPC), who to put it mildly, is a HUGE improvement over his backup, rookie Glen Coffee (183 YR / 2.6 YPC). The Texans allow 125.0 YPG on the round, allowing 4.9 YPC while allowing an NFL-high 10 rushing TDs. Meanwhile, Houston has had all sorts of trouble running the ball consistently, averaging 77.3 YPG and 3.0 YPC. Steve Slaton, who ran for 1,282 yards as a rookie last year (4.8 YPC), has just 274 YR (3.0 YPC) in 2009. Matt Schaub can be a very dangerous QB and has 1,644 passing yards with 13 TDs and just four INTs over the last five games but he's actually played much better on the road TY (10-2 ratio) than at home, where the Texans have lost two of three games. The Texans have alternated wins and losses in 2009 and are coming off a nice upset win last week at Cincinnati (28-17). I mentioned earlier that the Texans have only gotten to 4-3 ONCE since the 2002 season and that they have yet to post a winning season. Therefore, this check of the record book should not come as a surprise. When the Texans have been at .500 in years past, they have gone just 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS in their very next game. Take the points with the 49ers.
BEN BURNS
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
PICK: Houston Texans -3
The 49'ers are clearly an improved team. However, this seems like a very reasonable line on the Texans, who are also an improved team, one which is a lot better than many realize.
The Texans come in off a solid 28-17 win at Cincinnati. That was their second straight road game. Their last home game resulted in a 29-6 victory over Oakland. Including those results, they've quietly gone 8-4 SU/ATS their last dozen games and 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS their last 20 home games. With back to back road games on deck, the Texans know that they need to take advantage of this winnable home game.
The 49'ers were crushed by a score of 45-10 in their most recent game. With that loss, they're now an awful 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS the last few seasons, when playing in Weeks 5 through 9. This season, they're 0-2 SU when playing outside their division.
Yes, the 49'ers are coming off a bye. However, they're also a West Coast-based team, which is playing an early game, starting at 1:00pm EST. I expect them to have some trouble 'keeping up.'
Over their last three games, the Texans are outgaining opponents by an average of 405.7 to 267, in terms of total yards. Conversely, the 49'ers are being outgained by an average of 343.7 to 251, over their last three games. If the line remains at -3, consider backing the home team.
TEDDY COVERS
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Minnesota Vikings +6
The betting marketplace isn’t showing much respect for the Vikings this week, as money continues to pour in on the Steelers, driving the line up from -4 to the current number of -6. Sure, Minnesota has been on the lucky side to get to 6-0, surviving a missed field goal from the Ravens last week and winning on a miracle Brett Favre touchdown pass in the closing seconds against San Francisco.
Still, the Vikings offense has been nearly unstoppable, the second highest scoring team in the league, producing at least 27 points in every game. The Vikings have been money in the bank on the highway, winning all three of their road games by at least two touchdowns.
With Adrian Peterson upgraded to probable (ankle), the Steelers defense is going to have a hard time slowing down Minnesota’s balanced attack. This is the best offense they’ve seen all year and the Steelers are playing without one of their best defensive linemen, the injured Aaron Smith. Troy Polamalu is still less than 100% despite his return to the lineup.
Pittsburgh has been a money burner since opening day, covering only one pointspread in six tries this season. They’ve been dominating the statistical battle, winning ‘yards per play’ in every game; but those dominating stats haven’t resulted in pointspread success. Even in their Super Bowl season last year, the Steelers only won half of their home games by a TD or more. Look for Minnesota to trade points with Pittsburgh right through the final gun, making them an attractive choice in this pointspread range. 2* Take Minnesota.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Green Bay Packers -7
Two weeks ago I gave you the the Detroit Lions; they kept it close enough to sneak away with the ATS victory over the Steelers. Last week I gave you the Browns on the road in Pittsburgh and they put 14 on the board and came away with the ATS cover with the two TD spread they were getting.
Although we now have a pretty good read on the Steelers, this week we focus on the Packers as they hit the road for a game in Cleveland Browns Stadium.
Green Bay smashed Detroit at home last week 26-0, but it commited a season-high 13 infractions for 130 yards, something Mike McCarthy is quite angry about and is sure to address this week during practice. Aaron Rodgers was sharp last Sunday and he should have success against the Browns suspect secondary this week as well; Rodgers threw for 358 yards with two TD's vs. the Lions.
The Packers also played well on the defensive side; Green Bay had five sacks and INT's by defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins, cornerback Al Harris and safety Atari Bigby, who returned to the field after missing three games with a knee injury.
Green Bay always plays well on the road; the Packers are already 1-0 ATS as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 7 points and over the last two seasons they are a perfect 2-0; they are also 11-6 ATS over the last two seasons on the road overall.
On the other side of the field: Cleveland did play better last week, but I'm not reading too much into it and look for this team to continue to slide. The Steelers rolled up 543 yards total offense, more than twice the Browns' total of 197! Pittsburgh had nine pass plays of 20 yards or more, and two of 19 yards. Only two of those 11 gains came on third down. Cleveland is going to be in trouble against Rodgers.
Bottom line: Last weeks win was the Packers’ first shutout since a November 2007 home game against Minnesota and I look for them to build on that victory with a dominant performance against a horrible team; look for the PACKERS to move to 3-1 ATS this season as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points!
ALEX SMART
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
PICK: New York Giants -7
After suffering a 37-29 beat down at home last season, the Arizona Cardinals are looking to exact some revenge against the New York Giants in Week 7's Sunday Night Football showdown. Unfortunately for HC Ken Whisenhunt and the boys clad in red, the trip to the Meadowlands probably won't turn out well.
It's true that the Cards have won and covered three of their L/4 games, but for the most part, this is a team that is untested in 2009. Three home games against San Francisco, Houston, and Indianapolis have been the hardest games of the season, and with a pair of losses and a near-joke job against the Texans to show for it, that isn't encouraging. Before the playoffs last year, check out what the Cards did against future playoff squads... 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS, and that one SU victory came against a Miami team that had yet to discover its identity with the Wildcat. There's no doubting that QB Kurt Warner and his trio of receivers, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston form one of the best passing attacks in the game, but stacking up against the Giants' defense isn't going to be an easy task.
That defense ranks #1 in the NFL in both total defense (257.7 yards per game) and pass defense (147.3 yards per game), and that's after the unit was shredding by QB Drew Brees and the Saints for 493 total yards and 48 points last weekend. With 15 sacks to their credit, it's hard to figure out how to avoid New York's pass rush, and with Warner's knack for fumbling the football, that could mean a ton of turnovers. The way to beat this Giants' 'D' is to run right into it, as the unit only ranks 18th in the NFL against the rush, but Arizona ranks 31st in the league in toting the rock at 57.6 yards per game.
The Giants should have their way with Arizona's defense as well. Yes, Arizona stops the run better than nearly every other team in the NFL, as it is only allowing 59.6 yards per game on the ground, but the pass defense is a different story. The Cards are allowing 265.2 passing yards per game, a number that has to having New York QB Eli Manning salivating.
For years, the Giants have been one of the most consistent ATS teams in the game. They are 33-16-2 ATS in their L/51 games overall, and 39-17-3 ATS in their L/59 against the NFC. They're also 17-5 ATS in their L/22 against teams with a winning record.
The choice for the Sunday Nighter is simple. Parlay New York's disgust over the whooping in the Bayou with the fact that this is Arizona's second straight victory long road trip, and the makings are right for a Sunday Night stomping!
Play: New York Giants
Joseph D'Amico
Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants
Play: New York Giants -7
The Giant's are going to seek vengeance after suffering their first loss of the season last week against the Saint's. The "Boys in Blue" are 4-1 ATS TY and are outscoring opponenets by an average of 9.9 PPG. New York has played 4 "lesser" teams and none of those 4 teams could put up more than 17 points on the Giant's "D". They have an incredible front 4 and depth to put alot of pressure on aging QB Kurt Warner. The Giant's also have Jacobs and Bradshaw to pound the ball up the middle and tire out the Cardinal's line. This will be the toughest road test this season for Arizona. A cold October night in New Jersey won't make things easier for the Card's. NY rolls. Thank you.
Alex Grosse
New York Jets vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Oakland Raiders +7
After winning its first 3 contests of the season, the Jets have dropped 3 in a row. Last week they suffered a huge blow to their defense as they lost DT Kris Jenkins for the season. This is a team whose success relies heavily on its defense and Jenkins plays a critical role in New York’s pass rush and at stopping the run. The Raiders are by far one of the weakest offenses but they can move the chains with their ground attack. The Jets have the 21st ranked rush defense and without Jenkins will have a very hard time stopping Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Additionally, the Jets do not fare well as a favorite. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite. New York is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings in Oakland. I believe that the Raiders can win this one and that this will be a very close game, likely decided by a field goal. This line is clearly inflated. The Jets should not be favored by more than a field goal. Take the Raiders with the points.
Steve Zukiel
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -3½
Have you noticed this line folks. The Cowboys have been playing like crap all season long while the Falcons remain one of the better stories of the NFL season. Despite this the 'Boys have been installed as a four point favorite and everybody I know has been left scratching their heads. How can an Atlanta team be this much of an underdog against a Dallas team that has been struggling to find an identity?? Despite all of this, this line has not moved. The smart money is on the Cowboys. Take them on Sunday.
Black Widow
1* on 49ers +3
The 49ers are in a great spot Sunday as they are coming off a bye and their worst loss of the season. They have had two weeks to prepare for Houston and you can bet Mike Singletary has pushed his team, reminding them of how badly they were beaten by the Atlanta Falcons last time out. Houston has been inconsistent this season, sitting a 3-3 and they have yet to string together back-to-back wins. Every time they win, they suffer a setback the following week. Every time they lose, they come back with a great effort the next week. Following their 28-17 upset road win over the Cincinnati Bengals, look for Houston to come out flat Sunday and the 49ers to come out on fire both offensively and defensively off a bye week. Houston is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Frank Gore returns this week for San Francisco, and Michael Crabtree make his first start of the season to add two key weapons to this offense that they have not had for most of the year. Take the 49ers and the points.
EZWINNERS
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -6
The Minnesota defense has played very well this season, but they excel at stopping the run and not the pass. The Steelers are not a running team anymore, they are a passing team and Ben Roethlisberger is the 3rd rated passer in the league. The Vikings defense will also be without cornerback Antoine Winfield who injured his toe last week against Baltimore. After the injury to Winfield, Flacco and the Ravens began to move the ball down field fairly easily. I expect Big Ben, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace to have a huge day. On the other side of the ball the Steelers should be able to shut down Adrian Peterson and force Favre into more predictable passing situations. Troy Polamalu came back last week after suffering a knee injury and he makes all the difference for this defense. Lay the points.
Tony Mathews
Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers
Selection: Carolina Panthers -7
The Carolina Panthers will come into this game looking to run the ball. We see the Carolina Panthers having much success running the ball as the Buffalo Bills are very bad at stopping the run. In fact, the Buffalo Bills have given up an average of 245 rushing yards the last three weeks. This solid rushing offense by the Carolina Panthers will open lanes for QB Delhomme and a breakout game from Steve Smith wouldn't surprise us.
On the other hand, we see the Buffalo Bills offense struggling to score. The Bills o-line has given up over three sacks per game and got their QB knocked out last week. That means Ryan Fitzpatrick might be at the helm and he is not a viable NFL starter. Regardless of who is playing QB for the Bills on Sunday, the Carolina Panthers defense will find ways to stop the Buffalo Bills from scoring points.
The Carolina Panthers have a very strong home field advantage and we feel the Carolina Panthers roll to a victory of 7 or more points.
Take the Carolina Panthers -7
Stephen Nover
San Diego at KANSAS CITY +5'
Injuries, bad coaching and a declining talent base have turned the Chargers into just a mediocre team.
Yet the Chargers still are receiving too much respect from the oddsmaker despite only covering once this season
Yes, the Chiefs are terrible. But considering their tough schedule, they aren't so bad as to be getting this many points at home. Kansas City has met Baltimore, Philadelphia the Giants and Cowboys.
The Chargers just nipped the Chiefs, 20-19 at home and 22-21 at Arrowhead Stadium, last year when they were far superior to what they are now.
The Chiefs have a bad offensive line, which has resulted in an impotent ground attack. But the same can be said of the Chargers. They rank last in rushing, averaging 40 yards fewer than the Chiefs per game on the ground. LaDainian Tomlinson has been in decline for four years. His rushing yards per game have gone down during this span from 113.4 in 2006 to 92.1 in 2007, 69.4 last year and 46.7 this season. A cluster injury problem in the offensive line hasn't helped.
Tomlinson is way below his one-time talent level. The same is true of once-feared linebacker Shawne Merriman. San Diego is giving up just 21 yards less per game than the much-maligned Chiefs defense.
San Diego's big edge in this matchup is its passing attack spearheaded by Philip Rivers. But considering the Chargers are traveling on a short week following their key Monday night home loss to Denver and going into a tough venue with an early start time, this should be a game settled by a field goal or less. The Chiefs have covered eight of the past 10 times they've hosted.
4♦ K.C. CHIEFS
Jeff Benton
Green Bay -9 at CLEVELAND
I’m on an 11-5 roll with NFL freebies – including hitting the Texans over the Bengals last week – and I’ll extend that streak Sunday by laying the big points with the Packers at Cleveland.
I scored a 30 Dime winner last week with Green Bay, which ripped the Lions 26-0. If not for drives that stalled in the red zone and resulted in field goals, the Packers would’ve scored in the high 30s, easily.
You may recall that one of the reasons I sided with the Packers was a firm belief that this team has become pretty predictable. That is, they look like world-beaters against the NFL’s also-rans, but have a lot of trouble when they pick on teams their own size (or bigger). Check the schedule to this point: Green Bay pummeled the Rams 36-17 on the road and the Lions 26-0. But the Pack struggled to beat Chicago 21-15 in Week 1 (despite the fact Jay Cutler was a turnover machine that night), lost 31-24 at home to the vastly improved Bengals, and fell 30-23 at Minnesota.
Well, today, the Packers clearly get another creampuff to feast on. The Browns are beyond dreadful. Yes, I know they’ve now covered (barely) in three straight games. Doesn’t matter. Cleveland can’t do anything offensively (11.5 points, 239.8 yards per game average), and it can’t stop anyone (24.7 points, 407.3 yards per game allowed). Breaking it down further, the Browns get out-passed by a 242-136 per-game margin and outrushed by a 164-104 average.
And when it comes to quarterback play in this one, you’ve got Cleveland’s Derek Anderson (44.4%, 126.5 ypg, 2 TDs, 6 INT, 41.7 QB rating) on one side and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (64.6%, 291.2 ypg, 8 TDs, 2 INTs, 104.1 QB rating) on the other. The word “mismatch” doesn’t do it justice! Granted, the Packers’ biggest problem this year has been keeping Rodgers upright, but the Browns are in the bottom-third of the league in sacks, so don’t look for that weakness to be exploited.
Green Bay is on ATS streaks of 15-6-1 on the road and 8-3 as a road favorite, while Cleveland, despite cashing the last three weeks, is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 overall and 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven at home. And you have to go back to the middle of their surprising 2007 season (when they went 11-5) for the last time the Browns covered in four in a row. Throw in the fact a flu bug ripped through Cleveland’s facilities this week, and this one’s an easy call: Packers roll by two-plus TDs.
5♦ GREEN BAY