Sports Gambling Hotline
Minnesota at PITTSBURGH
It has been like money in the bank to play Minnesota's games OVER the total this season, and Sunday will be no exception.
The Vikings have played OVER in 5 of their 6 games this season, and they are an eye-popping 10-2 OVER the total their last 12 as the visitor.
Pittsburgh OVER at home has also been a proven money-maker, as the Steelers are on a 49-23 OVER clip at Heinz Field since early in the 2001 campaign.
The Minnesota defense has been gouged for 20-points or more in 4 of their 6 games this year, while their offense has scored no less than 27-points in any of their 6 wins.
Big Ben and the Steelers have been getting it cranking on offense, as the have tallied 27-points or better in their last 3 games.
Offense is the order of the day today in the Steel City.
Play the OVER.
5♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
New England -15 vs. TAMPA BAY - at London
On an 11-8 comp play run the last 19 days.
Going to be a lop-sided game across the pond this Sunday afternoon, as New England has there way with the sad-sack Buccaneers.
The Patriots may not put up another 59-spot like they did to the Titans last week, but they will certainly blow out a Tampa team that has lost all 6 of their games this year, and have only covered once in those 6 losses.
The Bucs are also on further spread declines of 1-7 their last 8, and 2-9 their last 11 affairs. For me to even think about backing Tampa Bay today, you would have to give me around 21-points!
New England has covered the impost in their last 3 wins, and today they show the country of England what a good, old-fashioned can of whip ass looks like.
The Pats in a romp!
3♦ NEW ENGLAND
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona +7 at N.Y. GIANTS
I'm dishing out a FREE winner for you in tonight's matchup and grabbing the points and playing the Cardinals in New York taking on the Giants.
Arizona’s offense is just as potent as the Giants, if not more so. I’m looking for this game to be a shootout tonight and lots of entertaining offense. The soggy field might slow things down a bit, but it’s soggy for both sides of the ball and if the offense knows what its moves are, then they have the edge.
Arizona has started to put up the points like we expect the last two weeks, beating Houston 28-21 as a 5.5-point home favorite and then going to Seattle last week and winning 27-3 as a three-point underdog. The Cardinals are tied for last in the NFL in rushing at just 57.6 yards per contest, but the passing game is tops in the NFC and fifth in the league, averaging 280.2 yards per outing.
Defensively, the Cardinals allow just 18.4 points a game, but they can surrender some big yardage as we saw when they faced the Colts on a Sunday night.
New York was just involved in a shootout with the Saints last week, losing 48-27 as a 3.5-point underdog. It snapped the Giants’ four-game winning streak to start the season. What last week’s loss did was expose this defense and show how bad it is against the pass. New Orleans put up 48 points against it and the Cowboys had 31 points against it back in September. Both teams threw the ball to move down the field, and that’s exactly what Arizona does best.
Arizona is riding several ATS streaks, including 8-2 overall, 6-2 on the road, 6-0 in October games, 5-0 as an underdog and 5-1 against the NFC.
The Cardinals’ Kurt Warner has got to make the smart plays and correct decisions today and if he does, Arizona will be in this one right down to the final gun. Grab the points and play Arizona in this primetime showdown.
2♦ ARIZONA
SPORTS ADVISORS
San Diego (2-3, 1-4 ATS) at Kansas City (1-5, 2-4 ATS)
The Chiefs, fresh off their first victory under new coach Todd Haley, play host to the struggling Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium.
San Diego scored just three second-half points Monday night in a 34-23 home loss to Denver as a 3½-point favorite. The Chargers’ offense is a middling 14th in the league in total yards (341.6 ypg), though QB Philip Rivers and the passing game rate fifth at 284 ypg. The rushing game behind slumping LaDainian Tomlinson continues to struggle, with San Diego tied for last with Arizona at just 57.6 rushing ypg., and the Chargers are allowing 27.2 ppg (28th).
Kansas City dropped Washington 14-6 as a 6½-point road underdog Sunday to finally crack the win column after losing nine in a row (3-6 ATS) dating to last season. However, the Chiefs are still 30th in the league in total offense at just 259.7 yards per game, and they’re getting outscored by an average of just over a TD per game, at 24-16.3.
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) in the last seven meetings with San Diego, losing both of last year’s contests in this AFC West rivalry, but cashing in both games that went down to the final minute, including a 22-21 home loss as a six-point pup in December. The underdog is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 clashes, and K.C. is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Arrowhead.
The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six AFC West contests and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a spread-cover, but they remain on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 4-12 at home and 2-5 as a ‘dog. Despite Monday’s loss to Denver, the Chargers are a solid 21-9-4 ATS in their last 34 AFC West outings and 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a division road chalk, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-5 overall (all against the AFC), 1-4 on the road, 3-8 as a favorite and 0-4 as a road chalk.
Kansas City is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 at home and 15-5-1 as a home pup, and the over for San Diego is on runs of 5-1 overall (4-1 this year), 4-0-1 in division play, 19-6-2 on the highway and 5-1-1 with the Chargers favored on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Indianapolis (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at St. Louis (0-6, 2-4 ATS)
The Colts take their unbeaten record to the Edward Jones Dome for a non-conference contest with the Rams, who are still seeking their first win under new coach Steve Spagnuolo.
Indianapolis is coming off its bye week after rolling Tennessee 31-9 as a three-point road chalk two Sundays ago, winning its 14th consecutive regular-season game (9-4-1 ATS). QB Peyton Manning has cracked the 300-yard barrier in passing yards in all five games this year, and he’s averaging 329 ypg with 12 TD passes against just four INTs for the league’s third-best offense in total yards (404.8 ypg).
St. Louis nearly notched its first win of the year, taking Jacksonville to overtime before losing 23-20 as a healthy 9½-point ‘dog, the team’s 16th consecutive defeat (6-10 ATS). The Rams set a season-high for points scored in the defeat, marking just the second time they’ve put up more than 10 points this year. St. Louis continues to be the league’s lowest-scoring squad at a dismal 9.0 ppg.
These teams have met just twice this decade in regular-season play, with each going 1-1 SU and ATS and the home team winning and covering each time. Most recently, Indy rolled 45-28 as a 13½-point favorite in October 2005.
The Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a chalk of more than 10 points, but they are on ATS rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-1-1 on the road, 9-2 in October, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread cover and 12-4 on the road versus NFC foes. The Rams, meanwhile, have nothing but negative ATS trends, including 8-17 overall, 3-9 at the dome, 3-12 as a home pup, 3-10 catching more than 10 points and 5-15 against winning teams.
The under for Indianapolis is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against losing teams and 5-2 on the road, while the over for St. Louis is on stretches of 18-5 at home versus teams with a winning road record, 11-5-1 with the Rams as a home ‘dog and 15-7 in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Green Bay (3-2 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (1-5, 3-3 ATS)
The Packers hit the road for the third time in four games when they head to Ohio to take on the struggling Browns.
Green Bay came off a bye and blanked Detroit 26-0 as an overwhelming 14-point home favorite Sunday, bouncing back from its 30-23 road loss to Minnesota. QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 358 yards and a pair of TDs against the Lions, leads an offense that is putting up 26 ppg (eighth), and with the shutout last week, the Pack’s defense is tied for ninth, allowing 18.6 ppg.
Cleveland failed to string together consecutive wins last week, losing to defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 27-14, though it narrowly covered as a 14-point underdog. The Browns continue to have difficulty scoring, netting just 11.5 ppg (30th). Also, QB Derek Anderson has been brutal the past two weeks, following his 2-for-17 effort and 23 passing yards at Buffalo with a 9-for-24 showing and just 122 passing yards against the Steelers. He has eight turnovers (six INTs, two lost fumbles) against just two TDs.
The squads have split two meaningful meetings this decade both SU and ATS, with Cleveland earning a 26-24 road upset as a six-point underdog in September 2005.
The Packers have followed their last four spread-covers with ATS losses, but they are otherwise on pointspread upswings of 15-6-1 on the highway, 8-3 as a road chalk and 6-0-1 as a non-division road favorite. The Browns, who have cashed the past three weeks, are on spread-covering runs of 8-0 in October and 7-1-1 catching 3½ to 10 points, though they still shoulder negative ATS streaks of 3-8-1 overall, 1-5-1 at home, 2-7-1 after a SU loss, 2-5-1 against winning teams and 3-6 as a non-division home ‘dog.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 21-8-1 overall, 18-7-2 in roadies, 44-20-2 against losing teams, 15-5 laying points and 19-7-1 with the Pack favored on the highway. The over is 7-3-1 in Cleveland’s last 11 as a home pup of 3½ to 10 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Minnesota (6-0, 4-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (4-2, 1-5 ATS)
The Vikings, one of only two 6-0 teams in the league, step outside the NFC to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers at Heinz Field.
Minnesota blew a 17-3 third-quarter lead to Baltimore last week, giving up three fourth-quarter TDs, before escaping with a 33-31 victory in failing to cover as a three-point home chalk. The Vikings, with 40-year-old QB Brett Favre and star RB Adrian Peterson leading the way, have scored 27 points or more every week, averaging 31.5 ppg, which trails only the Saints. Also, the defense, though allowing 20.2 ppg (18th), has helped the Vikes post a plus-8 turnover margin, tied for the NFL’s second-best mark.
Pittsburgh rolled past Cleveland 27-14 Sunday, but fell short of covering as a lofty 14-point home favorite and is now 1-6 ATS dating to its Super Bowl victory over Arizona. The Steelers are averaging 403.7 ypg (fifth), including the second-best passing attack at 296.7 ypg, but that’s only converting into 23.3 ppg (14th), partially due to a minus-four turnover margin. Pittsburgh is allowing 18.7 ppg (11th).
Pittsburgh has won both its meetings this decade with Minnesota, going 1-1 ATS as it cashed in an 18-3 road as a 4½-point favorite in December 2005.
The Vikings have covered in their last four road outings, but they are on ATS skids of 1-5 against winning teams, 5-12 after a SU win and 2-6-1 in non-conference roadies.
The Steelers’ current 1-6 ATS dive has all come from the favorite’s role, and they are on an 0-5 ATS purge following a SU win, but they maintain positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 against winning teams, 6-2 at home, 20-7 as a home favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 25-11-1 in October. Pittsburgh also has cashed in eight of its last 11 non-conference home games.
Minnesota is on “over” tears of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in October, 8-3-1 on the road and 7-1 as a road pup, and the over for Pittsburgh is on surges of 4-0 overall, 41-17-2 at home, 5-0 against winning teams and 5-1 in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
New England (4-2, 3-3 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay (0-6, 1-5 ATS)
(at London)
The Patriots, coming off the most lopsided NFL win in more than three decades, head to Wembley Stadium to take on the winless Buccaneers in the league’s annual game in London.
New England pinned a 59-0 beatdown on Tennessee last week laying 9½ points at home, the biggest NFL blowout since the Rams’ 59-0 win over the Falcons in 1976. The Patriots scored 35 second-quarter points – all on passes from Tom Brady, who finished with six TD throws, tying his own franchise record. The Pats are putting up 404.7 ypg (fourth) and 27.2 ppg (seventh), and Brady is leading a passing attack that nets 288.3 ypg (fourth).
Tampa Bay fell to Carolina 28-21 Sunday as a three-point home pup, dropping its 10th consecutive game SU (2-8 ATS). The woeful Bucs are averaging 14.8 ppg (27th) and 277.7 ypg (28th), while allowing 28 ppg (29th) and 370.2 ypg (27th). Second-year QB Josh Johnson has started the past three games and has been sacked 10 times in that stretch and thrown five INTs (against three TDs). He’s also fumbled a whopping seven times in the last two games (five against Carolina), though only one was recovered by the defense.
These squads haven’t met since December 2005, when New England rolled 28-0 as a six-point home favorite.
The Patriots are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 giving more than 10 points, and they are on further ATS skids of 4-10 after a spread-cover and 6-14 after a SU win. However, they are on pointspread rolls of 36-17-1 on the highway, 17-7 as a road favorite, 21-7-1 in October and 13-7-1 against the NFC. The Buccaneers, an underdog in every game so far this year, are on pointspread freefalls of 1-7 overall, 5-11 catching points, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-6 against the AFC.
The over for New England is on sprees of 9-4 overall, 5-0 with the Pats laying 10½ or more and 7-3-1 in October, and the over is 6-2 in Tampa Bay’s last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and OVER
San Francisco (3-2, 4-1 ATS) at Houston (3-3 SU and ATS)
The 49ers hope a bye week will help them recover from a blowout loss when they head to Reliant Stadium to take on the Texans.
San Francisco had last week off after getting belted by Atlanta 45-10 as a one-point home favorite two weeks ago, the 49ers’ first ATS setback of the season. The 49ers are putting up just 267 total ypg (29th), though they’re tied for 15th in scoring (22.4 ppg), and Mike Singletary’s defense – despite the ugly outing versus the Falcons – is allowing just 19.6 ppg (tied for 12th).
San Francisco RB Frank Gore, who missed the last 2½ games with injury, is expected to return today, while first-round draft pick Michael Crabtree, who ended his holdout two weeks ago, is likely to start at wide receiver.
Houston upset Cincinnati 28-17 Sunday as a four-point road underdog, continuing its season-long trend of alternating SU and ATS wins and losses. QB Matt Schaub, who went off for 392 passing yards and four TDs against the Bengals, has thrown for 763 yards and seven TDs in his past two starts, with just two INTs on 90 attempts. For the year, Schaub has a league-best 14 TDs and five picks.
These teams have met only once before, with San Francisco notching a 20-17 overtime win as a one-point home favorite to cap the 2005 regular season.
The 49ers are on ATS dips of 0-6 as an underdog of three points or less, 1-7 in October and 7-17 in non-division road games, but they also carry several positive ATS streaks, including 4-1-1 overall, 5-0 as a pup, 4-0 as a road ‘dog and 9-1-1 after a SU loss of more than 14 points. The inconsistent Texans are 0-4 ATS both after their last four SU wins and their last four spread-covers, and they are on a 3-9 ATS decline in October, but they’ve cashed in four straight against winning teams and are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 overall.
San Francisco is on “under” runs of 7-3 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss and 4-1 on the highway, though the total has gone high in 10 of their last 13 October contests. The under for Houston is on stretches of 9-3 overall, 4-0 in October, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 6-1 after a SU win, but the over is 20-7 in the Texans’ last 27 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
N.Y. Jets (3-3 SU and ATS) at Oakland (2-4, 3-3 ATS)
The Jets, who started out 3-0 SU and ATS but haven’t won or covered since, hope to end their slide with the cross-country trek to the Oakland Coliseum to face the Raiders.
New York is coming off a stunning 16-13 overtime home loss to Buffalo as a 9½-point favorite, a setback that came on the heels of consecutive SU and ATS road losses to New Orleans and Miami. During the Jets’ three-game slump, rookie QB Mark Sanchez has just one TD pass against an eye-popping eight INTs, including five in the loss to Buffalo. He now has a dozen turnovers (10 INTs, 2 lost fumbles) against just five TDs for the year.
The dismal Raiders snapped a three-game SU and ATS skid with a shocking 13-9 upset of Philadelphia as a 14-point home ‘dog last Sunday. QB JaMarcus (17 of 28, 224 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was a bit more serviceable than he had been through the first five games of the year, but he’s still leading an offense that is last in the league in total yards (213.8 ypg) and 31st in scoring (10.3 ppg).
These two squads met last October, also in Oakland, with the Raiders netting a 16-13 overtime win as a three-point pup to end a 3-0 SU run (2-0-1 ATS) by New York in this rivalry. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and Oakland is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five contests at the Coliseum.
The Jets are on a bevy of ATS purges, including 3-8 overall, 0-6 after a SU loss, 0-6 after a non-cover, 1-7 as a favorite, 0-4 as a road chalk, 1-5 against losing teams and 5-16-1 in October. Likewise, the Raiders are mired in pointspread funks of 15-35-1 at home, 9-20 as a home pup and 9-20 in October.
The under is on streaks for New York of 6-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 5-1 as a road favorite, and the under for Oakland is on surges of 4-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 10-2 in October and 4-1 with the Raiders getting points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Buffalo (2-4, 3-3 ATS) at Carolina (2-3, 1-4 ATS)
The Panthers aim to push their modest winning streak to three games when they play host to the Bills at Bank of American Stadium.
Carolina dropped Tampa Bay 28-21 Sunday as a three-point road chalk to beat the spread for the first time this season and halt a five-game ATS slide overall. After opening the season with losses to three playoff teams from last year, the Panthers have gotten a break with games against Washington and Tampa. QB Jake Delhomme was still dicey in both wins, totaling two TD passes against three INTs and just 246 total passing yards. He now has 12 turnovers (10 INTs, 2 lost fumbles) and four TDs for the season.
Buffalo, coming off an ugly 6-3 upset home loss to Cleveland, bounced back with a 16-13 overtime victory over the Jets as a hefty 9½-point road pup, despite losing QB Trent Edwards to a concussion in the second quarter. The Bills picked off six passes, including five from New York rookie QB Mark Sanchez, yet they’re still minus-2 for the season in turnover margin. Buffalo is averaging just 15.5 ppg (26th) and 291.2 ypg (25th), while allowing 21.5 ppg (20th) and 352.5 ypg (21st). Also, Buffalo surrendered a whopping 318 rushing yards to the Jets a week ago.
Ryan Fitzpatrick will start for the Bills this week as Edwards has been declared out. Last week in New York, Fitzpatrick was 10 of 25 for 116 yards with one TD and one INT.
Carolina has cashed in both meetings this decade with Buffalo, going 1-1 SU, including a 13-9 victory as a 3½-point road favorite in the most recent clash in November 2005.
The Panthers are on ATS skids of 1-5 overall, 2-5 at home and 8-16 as a non-division home favorite, but they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last five against losing teams. The Bills have now covered in five of their last six roadies and are on a 25-9-1 ATS roll against losing teams, but they are on pointspread slides of 0-5 after a SU win and 2-6 following a spread-cover.
Carolina has topped the total in nine of its last 13 overall, but it is also on “under” streaks of 13-5 at home, 17-7 as a home favorite and 7-2 in October. The over has been the play in five of Buffalo’s last six road games, but the under for the Bills is on stretches of 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 in October and 22-8 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
Chicago (3-2 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
Two teams looking to bounce back from Week 6 losses get together when the Bears head to Paul Brown Stadium for a non-conference game against the Bengals.
Chicago fell short to Atlanta 21-14 Sunday night as a four-point road ‘dog, ending a three-game SU and ATS winning streak after its season-opening loss to Green Bay. Despite the addition of QB Jay Cutler, the Bears are middle-of-the-pack offensively so far, averaging 318.8 ypg (19th) and 23.8 ppg (13th). The defense has also been slightly above-average, yielding 306.2 ypg (13th) and 19.8 ppg (tie 15th).
After its surprising start to the season, Cincinnati was dealt a 28-17 home upset by Houston as a four-point chalk, ending a four-game SU surge (3-1 ATS) that followed the Bengals’ stunning Week 1 loss to Denver. Cincinnati’s above-average record isn’t really mirrored by its stats so far, as it is averaging 19.7 ppg (tie 20th) while also allowing 19.7 ppg (14th), and the Bengals are also giving up 351.7 ypg (19th).
Cincinnati and Chicago have split two meetings this decade both SU and ATS, with the road team winning and covering both times. Most recently, Cincinnati rolled 24-7 giving three points in September 2005.
The Bears are on ATS dips of 1-4 on the road, 1-6 as an underdog, 0-5-1 as a road pup and 2-8-1 as a non-conference ‘dog, but they’ve gone 11-5 ATS in their last 16 October outings, 5-1 ATS in their last six after a SU loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 when coming off a pointspread setback. The Bengals, meanwhile, are on ATS dives of 1-6 as a favorite (all at home), 3-9-2 as a home chalk of three points or less and 16-33-2 in October, though they’ve covered in six of their last nine overall.
Chicago is on “under” tears of 9-3 on the highway, 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after an ATS defeat and 36-17-2 as a road pup, and Cincinnati is on “under” rolls of 7-3 overall, 4-1 at home and 6-0 as a home favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New Orleans (5-0 SU and ATS) at Miami (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Saints take their high-octane offense to LandShark Stadium for a date with the Dolphins, who come off a bye looking to build on their two-game SU and ATS win streak.
New Orleans blasted the previously undefeated Giants 48-27 last Sunday, easily covering as a 3½-point favorite at the Superdome. QB Drew Brees continues to lead the NFL’s most prolific offense, which is averaging 430 ypg game and a whopping 38.4 ppg, seven points more than any other team in the league. The Saints also sport a top-10 defense, ranking ninth in both scoring defense (18.6 ppg) and total defense (301.2 ypg).
Miami bested the Jets 31-27 two Mondays ago as a three-point home ‘dog, following up on its 38-10 home blowout of Buffalo as a one-point chalk. The Dolphins, with Chad Henne now at QB after Chad Pennington suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3, have put up 69 points over their last two games after scoring just 43 in their first three outings combined. They’ve been bolstered by the league’s best rushing attack (177 ypg), paced by RB Ronnie Brown, who has averaged 100 ypg the last four weeks.
These teams just met Sept. 3 in the preseason, with Miami winning the meaningless affair 10-7 as a three-point road pup. However, they haven’t met in the regular season since October 2005, when Miami rolled 21-6 giving 2½ points on the road, the only regular-season clash this decade.
The Saints are on a plethora of spread-covering streaks, including 15-5-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 4-0 against losing teams, 17-5 as a favorite and 6-1 as a non-division road chalk. The Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six following the bye and 6-1 ATS in their last eight October outings, but they are on ATS declines of 15-36-1 at home, 1-4 as a ‘dog and 2-5 as a home pup, and they’ve failed to cash in their last six starts against NFC opponents.
The over is on tears for New Orleans of 18-7-1 overall, 15-6-1 with the Saints favored, 13-5 as a road chalk and 7-3 against losing teams. On the flip side, the under for Miami is on rolls of 11-5 overall, 16-5 after a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 coming off the bye and 5-2 as a pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta (4-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (3-2, 2-3 ATS)
Second-year QB Matt Ryan leads the Falcons into new Dallas Cowboys Stadium for a clash with Tony Romo and the Cowboys.
Atlanta topped Chicago 21-14 last Sunday night as a four-point home favorite, winning and cashing for the second straight week. The Falcons, who have allowed 20 points or less in all four of their wins this year, are yielding an average of 15.4 ppg, fourth-best in the league, despite giving up 359.2 ypg (24th). Much of Atlanta’s defensive success is due to a plus-5 turnover margin (seventh). Meanwhile, Atlanta is 10th in the league in scoring at 24.6 ppg.
Dallas took last week off after escaping Kansas City with a 26-20 overtime victory, failing to cover as a seven-point road chalk. The Cowboys, who have alternated SU wins and losses this year, sport the NFL’s second-most-productive offense at 420.4 ypg, and they’re scoring just a tick less than Atlanta at 24.4 ppg. Dallas’ assortment of running backs (Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice) has the squad averaging 161 rushing ypg, third-best in the league.
Dallas beat Atlanta 38-28 in December 2006 as a 3½-point road favorite, ending a modest 2-0 SU and ATS run by the Falcons in this rivalry to account for the only three meetings between these teams over the past eight years.
The Falcons are on ATS upswings of 5-1 in October, 11-5 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points and 7-3 as a non-division road ‘dog. The Cowboys are on pointspread runs of 4-1 following the bye, 6-2 against the NFC, 5-2 at home and 8-2 as a non-division home chalk, but they’ve failed to cash in their last four games against winning teams and are on further ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 1-5 in October and 1-4 after a SU win.
Atlanta carries “under” streaks of 38-16-1 on the highway, 35-16-2 after a SU win, 4-0 catching 3½ to 10 points and 6-2 in October, and the under is 12-2-2 in Dallas’ last 16 starts following a bye. However, the over for the Cowboys is on runs of 5-2 overall, 11-4 in October and 7-1 with as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Arizona (3-2 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (5-1, 4-2 ATS)
The past two NFC champions collide at the Meadowlands when the Cardinals make the long trip to the East Coast to take on the Giants in a prime-time showdown.
New York was dealt its first loss of the year in blowout fashion last week, falling to New Orleans 48-27 as a 3½-point underdog. Eli Manning had his worst outing of the season (14 of 31, 178 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 lost fumble), but New York’s defense was the bigger issue, getting pushed around after allowing 17 points or less in four of its first five games. The Giants are averaging 402 ypg (sixth), including 147.7 on the ground (fifth), while scoring 29.7 ppg (third) and allowing 19.8 ppg (17th).
Arizona ripped Seattle 27-3 as a three-point road underdog last week for its second straight win and cover. The Cardinals haven’t run the ball well at all, as they are tied for last in the league with the Chargers at a paltry 57.6 rushing ypg, but Kurt Warner has the passing game clicking off 280.2 ypg, which is No. 1 in the NFC and fifth overall. Arizona’s defense yields 324.8 ypg (17th) but just 18.4 ppg (eighth).
New York has won and covered the last two clashes in this rivalry, including a 37-29 road victory last November as a three-point favorite. Prior to that, Arizona had won and covered three straight meetings.
Despite last week’s meltdown in New Orleans, the Giants are on nothing but positive pointspread runs, including 33-17-1 overall, 6-2-1 at home, 7-1-1 after a non-cover, 7-2-1 after a SU loss, 17-5 against winning teams, 18-7 as a favorite and 7-2 as a non-division home chalk. The Cardinals are also on a bundle of spread-covering streaks, including 8-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 6-0 in October, 5-0 as a ‘dog and 5-1 against the NFC. However, Arizona is in a 11-23 ATS freefall as a non-division road pup.
The over for New York is on stretches of 4-1-1 overall and 11-5-1 at the Meadowlands, and the over for Arizona is on surges of 39-17 on the road, 16-5 in October, 40-14 with the Cards as a ‘dog and 20-8 against winning teams. However, the under has hit in four of Arizona’s first five games this year, including the last three in row.
Finally, last year’s meeting between these teams sailed over the posted price of 48, but the total has still stayed low in six of the last eight clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and OVER
ALCS
L.A. Angels (5-3) at N.Y. Yankees (6-2)
After Saturday's scheduled Game 6 was washed out, the Yankees try again to wrap up the best-of-7 American League Championship Series and punch their ticket to the World Series when they send veteran Andy Pettitte (15-8, 4.08 ERA) to the hill opposite the Angels’ Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.52) in a battle of southpaws in new Yankee Stadium.
The Angels staved off elimination with Thursday’s 7-6 victory in a wild Game 5 in Anaheim, Calif. Los Angeles tallied four runs before an out was recorded in the bottom of the first inning, then the Yankees came back with a six-spot in the top of the seventh to grab a 6-4 lead, only to see the Angels score three times in the bottom of the seventh to regain the advantage. Although L.A. closer Brian Fuentes loaded the bases with two outs in the top of the ninth, the lefty got Nick Swisher to pop out to shortstop to end the game and send this series back to the Bronx with New York holding a 3-2 advantage
Although the Angels trail in this ALCS, they’ve still won 12 of 15 overall going back to the regular season. Mike Scioscia’s club is on additional hot streaks of 5-2 on the road, 37-15 against left-handed starters, 49-23 following a victory and 4-1 after a day off. However, L.A. has lost seven of nine as an underdog and four of its last five on Saturday. Additionally, the Halos remain in playoff slumps of 6-13 overall, 2-6 on the road, 2-7 in the ALCS and 2-8 as a ‘dog. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.
New York, which hasn’t won the World Series since 2000, is on impressive runs of 47-19 overall, 40-11 at home, 39-12 as a favorite, 12-4 after a defeat, 5-2 on Saturday, 36-15 against lefty starters and 46-19 versus winning teams. The Yankees have won all four home playoff games this month and are 6-0 as a favorite in this postseason. However, the last time Bronx Bombers were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004.
The Yankees have still won five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry and they’re 8-7 in 15 clashes in 2009. New York has also taken seven of eight from Los Angeles in the Bronx. In fact, the host is 18-5 in the last 23 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August, including 11-4 this season and 4-1 in this ALCS.
These rivals have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.
Saunders gave a solid effort in Game 2 in New York six days ago, allowing two runs on six hits and one walk while striking out five over seven innings, but the Angels fell 4-3 in 13 innings. That ended a three-game winning streak the Angels had with Saunders pitching. Still, L.A. is 44-20 in his last 64 starts overall (7-2 last nine), 10-4 in his last 14 against the A.L. East and 5-2 both in his last seven road starts and his last seven on Saturday. However, they’ve dropped five of Saunders’ last seven as an underdog.
Including his Game 2 start, Saunders has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine outings, giving up just three earned runs in the other contest. He’s now 8-4 with a 4.94 ERA in 16 road efforts this season and 2-1 with a 5.55 ERA in six career starts versus the Yankees, with the Halos winning four of those six games.
Pettitte cruised through five scoreless innings in Game 3 in Los Angeles on Monday, then served up a three-run homer to Vladimir Guerrero in the top of the sixth inning to tie the game. He went on to pitch 6 1/3 innings, giving up those three runs on seven hits, but the Angels eventually pulled out a 5-4, 11-inning victory. New York is now 1-6 in Pettitte’s seven starts against the Angels since the beginning of the 2008 season, including 0-3 in the last three (all this year). In those seven contests, Pettitte has given up 33 runs (32 earned) in 39 1/3 innings (7.32 ERA).
Despite the Game 3 defeat, the Yankees are still on several positive runs with Pettitte pitching, including 9-4 overall, 78-38 at home, 7-1 as a favorite and 6-0 when he pitches on four days’ rest. The 38-year-old veteran is 6-4 with a 4.59 ERA in 16 starts at new Yankee Stadium, with this being his first postseason start there. Additionally, Pettitte – the all-time leader in playoff victories – is 15-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 37 career postseason starts, including 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two outings this season and 6-2 with a 4.14 ERA in 12 League Championship Series starts.
With Saunders pitching, the Angels sport “over” trends of 16-6 overall, 8-3 on the road, 9-3-1 against the A.L. East, 6-1 as an underdog and 11-3 against winning teams. Conversely, behind Pettitte, the under is on stretches of 54-24-3 overall, 9-3 at home, 45-20-1 as a favorite and 9-3-1 against the A.L. West. However, Pettitte’s last five home starts against the Angels have topped the total, and his start in Game 3 in Anaheim barely went over.
Los Angeles is on “under” runs of 27-10-2 overall, 15-3 on the highway, 6-1 on Saturday, 4-1-1 versus lefty starters, 5-2 as an underdog, 7-1-2 in road playoff games and 6-0 in ALCS road contests. New York carries a bunch of team “under” streaks as well, including 10-4-2 overall, 9-1-1 at home, 12-3-1 as a favorite, 5-1-1 against lefty starters, 5-2-2 in the playoffs, 4-0-1 in home playoff games, 4-1 in ALCS home games, 4-1-1 after a day off and 3-1-1 on Saturday.
Finally, the over is 19-9-1 in the last 29 meetings between these squads, but while the last three games in Anaheim soared over the posted price, Games 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oakland Raiders +7
Bottom Line: I'll take the Raiders at home catching a generous amount of points off a confidence boosting win against the struggling Jets. Oakland won by 3 points in New York last season and coming off a big win against the Eagles, it certainly won't be lacking any confidence today. I have uncovered two systems that highlight how much odds makers like to undervalue bad passing teams like Oakland. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PYA) against a horrible passing team (<=5.3 PYA), after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt last game, are 24-5 ATS since 1983. Also, the Jets are 1-11 ATS vs. awful passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game since 1992. Bet the Raiders for 1 unit.
John Martin
1 Unit on Atlanta Falcons +4.5
The Dallas Cowboys are 3-0 against bad teams such as the Bucs, Panthers and Chiefs, but they are 0-2 against good teams in the Giants and Broncos. The Atlanta Falcons classify as one of those "good teams" and after their 4-1 start, Matt Ryan and company are picking up right where they left off last season. I strongly feel the Falcons are the better team here Sunday, and I don't think home field justifies the Cowboys being more than a 3-point favorite at home. I see the Falcons winning outright, likely by a field goal. But no way do I see Atlanta losing by more than 3 points Sunday. The Falcons have a balanced offense that puts up 24.6 points/game. It's their defense that has been the biggest surprise, allowing just 15.4 points/game which gives Atlanta the edge. Dallas has been O.K. defensively at 19.6 points/game, but when you look at the easy schedule they have faced to this point it's a bit steep. Dallas is scoring 24.4 points/game, which is not mind-blowing considering their schedule. Atlanta has faced the Dolphins, Panthers, Pats, 49ers and Bears this season, so for the Falcons to be 4-1 and putting up these kinds of numbers is very impressive. Atlanta is outscoring those 5 quality opponents by an average of 9.2 points/game. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas has not proven they can beat the big boys. Taking the points is the only option here. Cash in with the Falcons as the underdog.
Freddy Wills
Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Take Steelers -5½
We picked up an easy win yesterday on FAU +3 as they cruised to an easy outright victory! Today we'll be on the home favored Steelers against the undefeated Vikings.
This is a big chance for the Steelers to get into the talks of being the NFL's best team as nobody has mentioned them as being one despite being the reigning Super Bowl Champions. I expect a big time game from the Steelers and I expect them to flex their muscles.
Vikings are off to a great start, but they have struggled against solid teams and that was in their own building where they collapsed last weekend against the Ravens and had a prayer against the 49ers. Don't get me wrong I like this team, and I think they are among the NFC's elite, but who have they played on the road. Let's have a look shall we? Road games @ Browns, Rams, and Lions arguably the three worst teams in the NFL. They have faced an average defense ranked 22nd, and today they'll face one of the best getting their star player in Troy Polamolou back. This is not a great time to be going on the road especially for a dome team. Take the points with the Steelers!
DUNKEL
Atlanta at Dallas
The Falcons look to take advantage of a Dallas team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games against teams with a winning record. Atlanta is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4)
Game 413-414: San Diego at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.453; Kansas City 126.323
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 8; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 4 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-4 1/2); Under
Game 415-416: Indianapolis at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 138.816; St. Louis 118.486
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 20 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 13; 45
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-13); Over
Game 417-418: Chicago at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 136.155; Cincinnati 131.603
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Under
Game 419-420: Green Bay at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.547; Cleveland 123.846
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7); Over
Game 421-422: Minnesota at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 136.781; Pittsburgh 138.486
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4); Over
Game 423-424: New England at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.861; Tampa Bay 125.336
Dunkel Line: New England by 15 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-14 1/2); Under
Game 425-426: San Francisco at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 135.693; Houston 131.808
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4; 40
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Under
Game 427-428: NY Jets at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.611; Oakland 119.157
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 16 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 6; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-6); Over
Game 429-430: Buffalo at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.137; Carolina 132.090
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5; 34
Vegas Line: Carolina by 7 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+7 1/2); Under
Game 431-432: New Orleans at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 144.945; Miami 137.235
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6); Under
Game 433-434: Atlanta at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.790; Dallas 137.254
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4); Over
Game 435-436: Arizona at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 130.515; NY Giants 144.721
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 14; 43
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Under
MONDAY, OCTOBER 26
Game 437-438: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 138.357; Washington 126.121
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 12; 41
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7); Over
MLB
NY Yankees at LA Angels
The Yankees look to wrap up the series and build on their 6-0 record in Andy Pettitte's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. New York is the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170)
Game 911-912: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 16.351; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 17.090
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Under
NHL
San Jose at Philadelphia
The Flyers look to take advantage of a San Jose team that is 3-7 in its last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. Philadelphia is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125)
Game 1-2: San Jose at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.001; Philadelphia 12.650
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Over
Game 3-4: Columbus at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.135; Los Angeles 12.480
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-130); Under
Game 5-6: Edmonton at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.649; Vancouver 12.530
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-165); Over
DAVE COKIN
NEW YORK JETS / OAKLAND RAIDERS
TAKE: OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Raiders are not good at all on offense, but the defense isn't bad and they match up well with the Jets today. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is off a miserable game for the Jets, and the team has now lost three in a row after their great start. Traveling coast to coast is never easy, and the Raiders seem excited after getting a nice win last Sunday over the Eagles. The fact that the entire Tom Cable assault incident is now behind them is a plus. Also, the blitz schemes Rex Ryan has been utilizing haven't been as effective as it appears as though opposing offenses are not being caught as much by surprise as they were earlier in the season. This looks like a good spot for the Raiders to pick up their third win, and I'll go Oakland's way as home dogs against the Jets.
JIM FEIST
NEW YORK JETS / OAKLAND RAIDERS
TAKE: OAKLAND RAIDERS
Did the Jets really play at Oakland last year and lose? Yes, they did, an embarrassing 16-13 defeat. The Jets (3-3 SU/ATS) have a new coach and QB. They started 3-0 SU/ATS, but are riding a 0-3 SU/ATS run under rookie QB Mark Sanchez (5 TDs, 10 INTs). They are conservative on offense with the kid, got beat at New Orleans (24-10) as he threw three picks, had a wild Monday night game, losing 30-27 at Miami, and come off a 16-13 home loss in OT to Buffalo. Sanchez (10-of-29 for 119 yards) imploded with no TDs and 5 picks. Think Pete Carroll was right when he said, .5?I don.5?t think Sanchez is ready for the NFL..5.5 The NY running game has a one-two punch of Thomas Jones and fast Leon Washington, and new WR Braylon Edwards adds some punch. However, New York Jets nose tackle Kris Jenkins has been placed on season-ending injured reserve with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee, a huge blow to the defensive front. The Raiders (2-4 SU/ATS) are off a rare win, stunning the Eagles 13-9. QB JaMarcus Russell (2 TDs, 6 picks) had the best game of his season and the offense had 325 yards. Defensive coordinator John Marshall kept calling up blitzes Sunday in a change of strategy for Oakland and that helped lead to six sacks of Donovan McNabb. The Raiders are going to give their best efforts at home and as a dog you have a very live wager with this team. Maybe now that Russell has that win under his belt and some confidence, this team is ready is string two wins in a row!!
Tony Weston
Game 6 of the ALCS was postponed from Saturday due to some bad weather to tonight. And I love that play so much that I’m sticking with it and sticking the Angels.
After losing in the first two games of this series, including Game 2 in extras, the Angels have taken 2 of the last 3 and forced tonight’s Game 6 where they will win and tie up the series forcing a decisive Game 7.
Including the Game 5 win, the Angels have gone 12-4 their last 16 games overall and come into this game having won 5 of their last 7 games on the road.
Keep in mind, too, the Yankees have won just once over the last 7 games against the Angels in which Andy Pettitte starts. The team has also gone just 1-4 in Pettitte’s last 5 starts on Saturday and the team has not won a Game 6 in four straight attempts.
New York will not win tonight with Pettitte on the mound as the Angels force a Game 7 with tonight’s win.
3♦ ANGELS
Steve Duemig
New England -14' at Tampa Bay
What a train wreck this trip has been for TB over the pond. First they left a day late on Friday morning which will totally screw up their body clocks. Early reports from London have the Bucs already bellyaching over the schedule. Then their scheduled Saturday practice was called off because of rain so that left them with only two days practice going up against the Pats! PULEAZE. The infighting continues inside the locker room and this trip is not helping matters. I now the line is pretty far up there and we are laying a premium number but this Buc team is a mess!!!
Dominic Fazzini
Chicago at CINCINNATI
I nailed Saturday's complimentary selection on Stanford, boosting my recent run to 11-5. Now I'm rolling with the Bears to keep my momentum going forward.
Jay Cutler is playing well for Chicago, even though he's not getting much from Matt Forte and the running game, and he's only going to get better as the ground game gets going and he gets more and more familiar with running the Bears' offense.
Cincinnati had its four-game winning streak snapped last week in a 28-17 home loss to Houston, and Texans QB Matt Schaub torched the Bengals' secondary.
And now Cincinnati is without leading pass rusher Antwan Odom, who went down with a season-ending Achilles' injury last week.
A lot of hype this week has surrounded Bengals running back Cedric Benson, the Bears' 2005 first-round draft pick who was cut by Chicago in June 2008. While Benson is having a big year so far, I don't see him getting his revenge against the Bears, who are sixth in the league against the run, allowing just 88.4 yards per game.
The underdog has covered in each of Cincinnati's games this year, although this game is a pick 'em in many places, and the Bengals are 2-9 in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Take the Bears to get a win on the road today.
2♦ CHICAGO
Chris Jordan
Minnesota at PITTSBURGH -6
As intrigued as I am with this side play on the Steelers, I am actually going to lay off of it and roll with the Over today.
It actually makes much more sense, if you think about it ...
Last week when Vikings star cornerback Antoine Winfield went down, Baltimore's Joe Flacco took full advantage and attacked that side of the field the rest of the game. Worked too.
So I fully expect to see Big Ben Roethlisberger do the same today, and let's be real here - Roethlisberger leads the league in passing yards, so what do you think he's going to do if Flacco was dissecting that secondary?
I know the Vikings have a tremendous defensive front, but if the Steelers pick up those blitzes and read everything effectively, there'll be no stopping Pittsburgh's passing game.
But let's not get too carried away in thinking the Steelers just run away with this thing (although I do entertain the thought of playing them on a teaser), as there's always the Favre factor.
What have we learned this season? There's always a big play lurking around the corner when it comes to an offense that includes Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre. So just when you think a two-touchdown lead might be safe, look out for the Purple People Eaters.
The Vikings have been making scoreboards light up like slot machines in my neck of the woods, as they've gotten past the posted total in five of six games this season.
And even though the Steelers are back at full strength, there's no reason to believe they're fully in sync just yet, and will be able to be 100 percent perfect against this Favre-led offense.
Delving inside some numbers, with the Vikings, the over is on runs of 9-3 on the highway, 7-1 when catching points on the road and 7-1 on grass. Involving the defending world champs, the high number is on streaks of 4-0 as the favorite, 5-1 in October, 6-2 on grass and 43-17 at home.
This one is flying high boys.
5♦ STEELERS/VIKINGS OVER