Jr Tips
Cardinals at Giants
Despite the Saints dominating the New York Giants last week, they still own the top-ranked defense in the NFL. The Cardinals are seeking a third straight victory and the Giants will be trying to come back from their first loss of the season after losing 48-27 at New Orleans last Sunday as the Giants gave up 34 points in the first half and 493 yards for the game.The Giants pass rush last week and produced no sacks after having 15 during their undefeated start.The Arizona Cardinals have won consecutive games for the first time this season and improved to 2-0 on the road last Sunday with a 27-3 win over Seattle as Kurt Warner was 32 of 41 for 276 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Larry Fitzgerald matched a career high with 13 receptions for 100 yards and caught his fifth touchdown of the season to lead all receivers. Warner has done an excellent job distributing the football, with five players having at least 15 receptions and four catching touchdowns.For the Giants, receiver Steve Smith is tied for the league lead with 41 receptions and has 525 yards to top the conference although New York's fifth-rated rushing attack will be tested by a Cardinals' run defense that is the best in the league, allowing an average of 59.6 yards per game. The Cardinals went 0-5 on the East Coast last year in the regular season before beating Carolina in a divisional playoff game and posting a 31-17 win over Jacksonville this season on Sept. 20th. Manning outdueled Warner in New York's 37-29 road win last November as he completed 26 of 33 passes for 240 yards and three touchdowns. Warner was 32 of 52 for 351 yards with one touchdown and one interception.The Cardinals have lost seven of their last eight road games against the Giants but are playing their best football the last couple of weeks and will be looking to redeem themselves for a poor effort this season on Sept. 27th in a 31-10 loss to Indianapolis in their last Sunday night National TV appearance. The Cardinals pasing attach is working on all cylinders and is too talented to give 7 points too. The last team that have the ball will win this game.
TAKE ARIZONA +7
Tom Freese
Ny Jets at Oakland
Oakland is 10-2 UNDER their last 12 October games and they are 7-2 UNDER their last 9 home games. The Raiders are 7-2-1 UNDER their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game and they are 4-1-1 UNDER their last 6 meetings with the Jets. New York is 23-9 UNDER their last 32 games as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. New York is 7-3 UNDER their last 10 vs. a team with a losing home record. The Jets are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 games and they 21-9 UNDER after rushing for more than 150 yards in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Andre Gomes
DAL -4.5 vs ATL
In my opinion, this is the perfect game to fade the Falcons, as they are coming to this game overrated and in a bad spot. Note that during the whole week, the Falcons were a public target money and the line still went from -3.5 to -4.5, in favor of the Cowboys.
Last Sunday, Atlanta beat the Bears in an extremely phony win for them because they were outgained in each facet of the game, expect in turnovers and efficiency in the red zone. The Bears had more first downs (21-16), more passing yards (290-185) and more rushing yards (83-68). The problem for the Bears is that they were just able to score a touchdown in 1 of the 4 trips they had to the red zone and in two of them they committed turnovers, with one interception and one fumble and so, the Falcons were able to sneak with the win that in normal conditions, they wouldn't have achieved it.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys had a well needed bye week coming for this game and this extra week of rest helped them to recover their 3 running backs and suddenly, they have Barber, Jones and Choice available and we are talking about the third best running team of the league, currently averaging 161 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is having some problems in stop the run, as they have just the 23th best mark of the league (allowing 118.2 yds/game) and when they faced teams with a decent running game, they struggled in stopping them: 168 yds allowed against the Patriots, 144 yards allowed against the Panthers and 100 yards allowed against the 49ers (in just 17 attempts and without Frank Gore), so I expect Dallas' three RB's to torch them in this game.
Also last week CB Brian Willaims got injured and he is out for the season and he is the player who usually covers the opposing TE, so Jason Witten and Tony Romo will have some extra space to work through the air, while Miles Austin is coming from a huge game in Kansas City a couple of weeks ago. This game will oppose a powerful offensive line of the Cowboys against a lighter but quicker DL of the Falcons and with Dallas having one extra week to rest, I expect the edge to go to Dallas. We can't ignore the fact that the Falcons will face in consecutive weeks two teams who are coming from bye weeks and that's obviously a pretty tough spot for Atlanta.
Dallas is in a pretty good spot for this game and with them being completely healthy and facing a team that is coming from a phony win and primed for a letdown, I expect a great win for the Cowboys and that's why I'm taking them in here.
King Creole
Play on: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS and OAKLAND RAIDERS
Despite NFL Underdogs going only 42-46-2 ATS so far in 2009, there HAS been a situation in which they have hit at a 80% Success rate. And that's for NFL Underdogs who are playing with the confidence and 'Mojo' of a surprising DOG win in their last game. And that's the situation for all three of our plays on Sunday. The CHIEFS won their first game of the season last week on the road (As dogs) against the Redskins. And the RAIDERS pulled off an 'unglaublich' home win (at +13.5 pts) over the Eagles last week. So far in 2009, All HOME DOGS playing off an underdog win are 4-1 ATS (80%).
This has been a dynamite 'Play ON' angle in EACH of the last four seasons. In fact, there results have been 16-2 ATS since 2005 for all NFL home underdogs of 3 > points playing of a SU underdog win.... in the first NINE games of the season.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Kansas City Chiefs +5
Look for the Chiefs to take the Chargers right down to the wire just as they did in both meetings last season. KC played the Chargers to a pair of 1-point games in 2008 and that gives this team a lot of confidence here on top of the boost they got from picking up their first win of the season last week. The Chiefs have historically been a strong home team and that is certainly the case when facing San Diego as they own a 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS mark at Arrowhead Stadium since 1997 in this matchup. The overwhelming key here is that San Diego's defense is struggling and KC is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 350 or more yards per game over the last 2 seasons. The Chiefs have played well each of the last 2 weeks, taking Dallas to OT and then beating Washington and they'll especially be up for this divisional bout. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers
Pick Carolina Panthers -7
The Panthers are back on track after back-to-back wins over the Redskins and Buccaneers. They get their 3rd straight win in blowout fashion Sunday against one of the league's worst run defenses in the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo allows 182 rushing yards/game this season and 5.3 yards/carry. On the road it gets even worse, as Buffalo allows 25.3 points/game, 214 rushing yards/game and 5.9 yards/carry. Carolina finally got their running game going last week with 267 rushing yards against the Bucs. 262 of that came from the combo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, along with all 4 of their touchdowns. This is the best running back duo in the league when used right, and Carolina is getting back to playing smashmouth football which is clearly their strength. That won't change this week against a horrible Bills' run defense. Starting QB Trent Edwards is doubtful with a concussion, giving the Bills even worse odds of keeping this thing close. The Panthers are 21-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Carolina is 29-10 ATS vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game since 1992. The Panthers are 32-14 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992. Take Carolina.
Info Plays
3* on Cincinnati Bengals PK
Reasons why the Bengals cover:
1.) The Bengals clearly had a letdown last week after beating the Ravens on the road the previous week, and now they return home very focused Sunday to beat the Chicago Bears. Chicago is just 1-2 on the road this season, and their only win came against the Seattle Seahawks who were playing without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck. Even then they needed to come from behind in the 4th quarter to win. The Bears are now 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
2.) The Bengals are 10-2 ATS after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992. After a very poor defensive showing against Houston, look for Cincinnati to get back to playing great defensive football this Sunday, the kind they played through their first 5 games. Carson Palmer and this balanced offense will get back on track as well. The Bengals are rushing for 113 yards/game and 4.2 yards/carry and they should be able to move the ball on the ground again behind Cedric Benson. Cincinnati is the more complete team right now, largely because the Bears have been bitten by the injury bug again this season. Bet the Bengals at home.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
I expect the Vikes to fall in their first true road test of the season against a Steelers team that is finding its stride with 3 straight wins of 8 points or more. Minnesota's defense struggled to defend the pass against the Ravens last week and that figures to haunt the Vikes here. Minnesota is 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game since 1992. Roethlisberger is having an MVP season and I expect him to carve up the Minnesota secondary today. Lay the number.
Jimmy the Moose
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Both teams came into the year with high expectations and while the Falcons have quietly gone about their business the Cowboys have loudly disappointed. Big NFC battle for both clubs today in Dallas.
The Falcons are off to a 4-1 SU and ATS start. Offensively they are averaging 24.6 PPG while their D is holding the opposition to 15.4 per contest. The addition of Tony Gonzalez is really helping Matt Ryan and the offense move the ball. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 7. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in October. In their last 16 games as a road dog of 3.5-10 the Falcons are 11-5 at the window.
Dallas is coming off their bye and hope to improve their overall game. The Cowboys are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS to start the season. Dallas is averaging 24.4 PPG while the D is allowing 19.6 per contest. In their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record the Cowboys are 2-5 ATS and in their last 4 overall vs. a team with a winning record they are 0-4 at the window. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in October.
The Falcons come into this one playing better on all sides of the ball. In the last 5 meetings between the clubs the Falcons are 4-1 SU and ATS and they'll take this one as well in Dallas. Too many points given to the Cowboys today.
Play on the Atlanta Falcons +