Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 26

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Kansas City at San Francisco
The Royals look to bounce back from yesterday's 11-4 loss and come into today's Game 5 with a 13-1 record in James Shields' last 14 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Kansas City is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150)

Game 909-910: Kansas City at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 13.882; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 12.924
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Under

CFL

Hamilton at Toronto
The Tiger-Cats head to Toronto today to face an Argonauts team that is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games in Week 18 of the season. Toronto is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Argonauts favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3 1/2)

Game 295-296: Hamilton at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 115.072; Toronto 120.728
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 5 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Toronto by 3 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3 1/2); Over
Game 297-298: BC at Winnipeg (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 111.178; Winnipeg 107.802
Dunkel Line: BC by 3 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: BC by 5 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+5 1/2); Over

NHL

Washington at Vancouver
The Canucks host a Washington team tonight that is 0-5 in its last 5 meetings in Vancouver. The Canucks are the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has Vancouver favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-135)

Game 1-2: Colorado at Winnipeg (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.215; Winnipeg 11.774
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-105); Under

Game 3-4: Columbus at Los Angeles (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.896; Los Angeles 11.969
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-190); 5
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+165); Over

Game 5-6: Ottawa at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.473; Chicago 11.386
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+165); Over

Game 7-8: San Jose at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.501; Anaheim 12.997
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-160); Under

Game 9-10: Washington at Vancouver (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.245; Vancouver 12.871
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-135); Under

EZWINNERS

Chicago Bears +6

The Bears are coming off of another home loss on Sunday, this time against the Dolphins. Brandon Marshall called out quarterback Jay Cutler as the postgame Chicago locker room was very heated. I expect Chicago to respond with a strong showing in New England. The Bears play much better on the road and running back Matt Forte should have a huge game against a New England team that struggled to stop the run without linebacker Jared Mayo. Brandon Marshall might visit Revise Island, but Cutler still has Alton Jeffery, Marls Benet and Matt Forte to catch passes. New England survived against the Jets, and they should be able to score on the Chicago defense, but not winning by this margin. I think Chicago has a great shot at the upset, take the points.

New York Jets -3

The Bills had their prayers answered last week as they stole one at home in the last seconds of the game against the Vikings. Buffalo's win did come at a cost as they lost their top two running backs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both to injury. I don't expect Buffalo to generate much on the ground with a third string running back starting against a Jets defense that stops the run well. Kyle Orton is going to have to chuck it around to win this game and that is good news for the Jets. New York also gets to use Percy Harvin for the first time. This trade was stunning, but the Jets really have nothing to loss. I believe Harvin will have an impact in this game right away either on offense or the return game. Geno Smith played well at New England and that type of effort will pick up the win here. Lay the points.

New Orleans Saints -1

This is a huge game for New Orleans. The Saints gave one away last week in Detroit, so this is almost a must win game. Green Bay throttled the Panthers last week and it looks like they have their offense back on track. One area that I think the Saints will be able to take advantage of is the run defense of the Packers that is last in the NFL. I expect a heavy dose of Mark Ingram as the Saints will try to control the time of possession and keep Aaron Rodgers and the offense on the sidelines. The Saints are a much better team at home in the dome and they will need to channel that home field advantage in this game. Another week of rest should also help tight end Jimmy Graham recover from his shoulder injury. Lay the points.

Andre Ramirez

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +7

The Jaguars should have received a nice confidence boost after breaking their nine-game losing streak with a home victory against the Browns. We like Miami much more in an underdog role than as chalk where they are 0-3 ATS the past three times laying more than four points. Ryan Tannehill has picked up his game, though, since being disrespected by Joe Philbin throwing for 799 yards in his last three games. Blake Bortles is Jacksonville's future. That future isn't quite now as Bortles has turned the ball over 12 times in four starts. According to my algorithms, I have Miami winning 17-14, 13-10, and the Jaguars winning 21-17.

Andre Ramirez's Featured Package

Brad Diamond

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +2½

Coming into action the Dallas Cowboys are 6-1 and at the top of the NFC East. The Eagles showing off a bye 5-1 needing a huge road win to hopefully keep pace with the Pokes who are facing floundering Washington (2-5) on Monday night down in the Lone Star State. Arizona comes in 5-1 after defeating Oakland (0-6) 24-13 on the road. Note, the Cardinals defeated a Raiders unit ranked #31 (15.3) and #32 (282.7) in scoring and yardage. Arizona built a 14-0 lead after QB Palmer threw 13-16 setting the game pace early. Overall the Arizona record is amazing considering they have used three different quarterbacks with a much injured defense. Bruce Arians is now 15-7 since becoming head coach of the Cardinals. In order for the Eagles to win on the road they will need to hurry and distract the veteran Palmer. Philly has put together 16 sacks in the last three games vs. San Francisco, St. Louis and NYG. Today during practice we noticed only guard Mathis was not suited up, but center Kelce seemed healthy, but can’t estimate his ability to start. Believe QB Foles needs a big game to control the tempo in this emotionally charged situation. Foles leads the league with 10 turnovers after having only 2 in 2013. He will need to author an attack that can break down (McCoy and Sproles) the Cards rushing defense that holds the opposing rushing attacks to slightly over 72 yards per game (#1). Their overall defense is holding opponents to 19.8 points (#5) per game. Still, the Eagles possess multiple sets that should confuse the defense giving the running attack some room with a screen or two as part of the overall rhythm. FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS has listed the Eagles as the #1 special teams unit in the NFL. We can’t argue with their big play ability…MAJOR EDGE. Finally, the UNDERDOG in the series has covered 4 straight in Vegas.

Art Aronson

Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Oakland Raiders +7

The 0-6 Oakland Raiders are in Cleveland to take on the 3-3 Browns. Both teams are coming off losses. After losing 31-28 to the Chargers two weeks ago, Oakland would fall 24-13 at home to the Cardinals last week. It’s the worst start to a season for the Raiders since losing their first 13 games in 1962: "This is as bad as you're going to get through the first part of the season," safety Charles Woodson remarked after the loss to Arizona. "We haven't won a game. How much worse can it get than that, than not winning a game?" Rookie QB Derek Carr has looked brilliant at times and pretty ordinary in others so far this year, he had four TD’s in the loss to the Chargers, but finished just 16 for 28 for 173 yards vs. the tough Cardinals defense. Carr though catches a break this week in playing against a Cleveland Browns unit which ranks 23rd in opposing passing yards. After a big 31-10 win over rival Pittsburgh, the Browns looked disastrous in last week’s 24-6 setback at Jacksonville. Cleveland settled for field goals in two trips inside the 20-yard line and failed to convert on fourth-and-1 at the 24. The Browns entered the weekend with the third best rushing attack, but looked anemic, 30 attempts for 69 total yards in the end. Despite the Raiders being winless this year, I believe these teams are moving in opposite diretions right now. Oakland has performed well vs. two playoff bound teams over the last two weekends, Cleveland continues to do what it does best and that is to show a ton of inconsistency from game to game. I think “sprinkling a little” on the money line isn’t a bad idea here either; consider a second look at the visitors in this one.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Steve Williams

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -2½

Take the Arizona Cardinals as your free winner of the week from Steve Williams. Steve continues to impress with his 10-2 ATS mark in totals and 64 % ATS overall record this season. Don't miss his Thursday Night Smasher, NFL Total of the Year and NFL Game of the Week. In College Football get his Double Play Parlay and cash big.

Cardinals host the Eagles in a battle of 5-1 teams. Philly will have their hands full on defense against the tough Arizona WR corp. Eagles prone to giving up big plays on defense. Also Sproles not yet 100 % after knee sprain two weeks ago. Cardinals off win over the Raiders. Bruce Arians is proving last year's 10-6 record (missed playoffs) was no fluke. This team seems to be on a mission to make sure they don't miss out this year. Arians is 11-3-1 ATS last 15. Cardinals are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 at home.

We expect a close hard fought game between two of the better teams in the NFL today. Home-field the edge here. Cardinals pull this one out by seven, 28-21.

Teddy Covers

Baltimore +1

My clients and I cashed a winning Big Ticket bet supporting the Bengals in Week 1 on the road at Baltimore. Cinci dominated that game early, but settled for five first half field goals. After halftime, the Ravens scored 17 unanswered to take the lead. But a 77 yard bomb from Andy Dalton to AJ Green in the final minutes allowed the Bengals to escape with a victory on Baltimore's home field; their first road win over the Ravens since 2009.

But the Bengals team that we saw on opening day is not the same Bengals team that Marvin Lewis is fielding right now. AJ Green has a bad toe, unable to suit up in their last two ballgames. TE Tyler Eifert is out as well. That duo combined for more than half of Cinci's receiving yards in that Week 1 win. Defensively, the Bengals have a cluster injury problem at linebacker. All three LB starters were off the field by the second half of last week's loss at Indy; none of them are sure things to suit up this week. Throw in an impact injury to stud CB Leon Hall (questionable for Sunday), and you can understand why Cinci's defense has struggled in recent weeks.

The Bengals have a 'value' problem as well as their injury concerns and Baltimore's 'same season divisional revenge' concerns. Cincinnati's season long stats look just fine, outgaining their foes by 0.3 yards per play. They've got a positive turnover differential, Dalton's QB rating is at the highest of his career, and their pass defense numbers (opposing QB passer rating numbers) rank among the top five teams in the NFL.

But those full-season numbers are heavily influenced by the Bengals first three games of the season, all relatively well-played wins and covers. Over their last three games, it's been a very different story. Cinci's defense allowed more than 500 yards against Indy last week on the heels of allowing 80 points in their previous two games, a struggling unit. And Cinci got shut out last week, the second time in the last three games that the offense couldn't throw the football effectively. Looking solely at Cinci's 2014 numbers creates a somewhat misleading profile.

Baltimore has found their mojo since that Week 1 loss to the Bengals, winning five of their last six contests thanks to the emerge of a big play passing game that was largely absent last year but was on full display when they won the Super Bowl two years ago. Joe Flacco is currently sporting the best QB rating of his career; averaging more than ten yards per attempt three times in the last four games. RB Justin Forsett has seven 20+ yard rushing attempts for the year, making big plays out of the backfield. And the Ravens defense has been rock solid, particularly in the red zone, allowing 21 points or less in every game since their opening day defeat against Cincinnati. Right now, Baltimore is the better team, catching points.

Sleepyj

6 Point Teaser Chiefs & Dolphins

First off the Chiefs are well rested and posted a quality win last week against SD..Now they come back home after a good break. This crowd will be rockin and KC actually has a nice team..Idk about playoff caliber..but a nice team all around. Rams are struggling and i dont thik after that huge win Vs. Seattle this team will get up on the road for this one..KC win this one by 6 or 7 points....Miami is playing very well. I don't see how the Jags can score here against this defense. I like the fact that Miami is back in Florida and off a big win. i think Miami can def cover the spread but i will side on caution with the Dolphins and use them in a tease here.

Jimmy Adams

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Detroit Lions -3½

There are huge red flags for the Atlanta Falcons right now. After starting the season out on a positive note, they have since lost 4 straight, both SU and ATS. Most of the games haven't even been close to sniffing a point spread cover. The defense is undermanned and in disarray, allowing way too many points to give their offense any shot. Atlanta currently ranks 29th in total passing yards per game and 27th in rushing yards. The long trip to London won't do them any favors either. All of the quotes coming out of Falcons camp have been negative, with Roddy White and the veterans extremely frustrated. This O-line can't protect Matt Ryan, and as a result he is taking a beating.

The Lions meanwhile continue to look strong. They've won 2 in a row behind a solid defense, especially the front 7. With Atlanta's line decimated by injuries, the Lion's D-line will have no trouble putting pressure on Ryan. On the other side of the ball, Detroit can pick it's poison, either focusing on the ground attack or the passing game. Either way they will be able to exploit this Falcon's defense and cruise to a rather easy victory.

Steve Williams

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -2½

Take the Arizona Cardinals as your free winner of the week from Steve Williams. Steve continues to impress with his 10-2 ATS mark in totals and 64 % ATS overall record this season. Don't miss his Thursday Night Smasher, NFL Total of the Year and NFL Game of the Week. In College Football get his Double Play Parlay and cash big.

Cardinals host the Eagles in a battle of 5-1 teams. Philly will have their hands full on defense against the tough Arizona WR corp. Eagles prone to giving up big plays on defense. Also Sproles not yet 100 % after knee sprain two weeks ago. Cardinals off win over the Raiders. Bruce Arians is proving last year's 10-6 record (missed playoffs) was no fluke. This team seems to be on a mission to make sure they don't miss out this year. Arians is 11-3-1 ATS last 15. Cardinals are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 at home.

We expect a close hard fought game between two of the better teams in the NFL today. Home-field the edge here. Cardinals pull this one out by seven, 28-21.

DAVE COKIN

DETROIT LIONS VS ATLANTA FALCONS
PLAY: DETROIT LIONS -3.5

The bad news is this game starts at a ridiculous hour for those of us on the left coast. The worse news is it’s not on the day the clocks get turned back one hour, so we don’t even get the extra hour of shuteye. That’s next Sunday.

The Lions should arrive in London in a cheery frame of mind. They’re off a terrific comeback win over the Saints and have set themselves up to make a serious run at a playoff berth and perhaps even a division title.

The Falcons are the home team in this skirmish, and considering the way they’re going right now, it’s probably just as well this home game is an ocean away from Atlanta. The Dirty Birds are really struggling and the sand in Mike Smith’s hourglass as this team’s coach is running out fast.

I’ve consistently made the point over the years that I like playing against lame duck coaches, or more specifically, those that are still working but that I consider to be lame ducks. Smith surely fits that bill at this point. Clearly, he can get off the hot seat if the Falcons can turn things around and mount a playoff run. In fact, that’s not as outlandish as it sounds as there are zero +.500 teams in the NFC South right now. But the reality is that this Falcons team is looking really raggedy, and I don’t see where the defensive improvement is going to come from.

It’s an admittedly simplistic approach on my part, but this looks like two squads heading in opposite directions right now. The Lions have won two straight and the victory against New Orleans had to be very encouraging. Atlanta has gone from 2-1 to 2-5 and they are starting to take on the look of a team that’s always waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop. I believe that ties in with the status of the coach. The players know the score and it’s difficult to envision Smith being around beyond the end of this season, barring an unforeseen surge.

I made this number Lions -5 and that’s basically on the math. Factor in some intangibles and I think a case can be made that this is closer to -7. Unless the Lions shoot themselves in the foot or come out flat this Sunday, it’s a game they figure to win, and the number shouldn’t get in the way. Lions minus the points is my choice.

AC Dinero

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +1.5

The Ravens come in winners of 5 of their past 6 games. They have been solid in the running game and look to be legit contenders in the NFC North. Even though there is a bit of revenge for Baltimore (Cinn won the first game in Baltimore). the Bengals need this game in the worst way. They were embarassed last week at Indy (shout out 27-0) and the defense has been abysimal, especially against the run and converting on 3rd down. We'll go with the desparate Bengals at home in this one

NFL Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs -7

Do you know how much good luck the Rams needed to win that game last week against the Seahawks? Okay, I won't call it luck, but they pulled all of the tricks out of the bag for that game. They faked a punt deep in their own territory, which resulted in a touchdown. They then pulled off that improbable punt return for 6. Head coach Jeff Fisher admitted after the game they needed to go deep in the playbook because he knew they weren't going to stop Russell Wilson. Well..cheers for the successful trick plays, but that isn't exactly a vote of confidence for your team. That was arguably one of the biggest wins for the Rams in a long time, but now they need to hit the road and play in one of the rowdiest environments in the NFL. This is a good situational bet, and not only that, there are statistics that lean in the Chiefs' direction as well. The Rams are still awful defending the run, there is no escaping that. This week they'll need to face a healthy dose of the run against the Chiefs. KC will hammer the ball with Jamaal Charles, who leads an NFL 3rd best rushing attack. The Rams will counter with their defense that allows 145 yards per game on the ground, 28th, the exact same amount that the Chiefs rush for. They also allow 30 points a game. The Rams only win on the road this season was a squeaker against the lowly Bucs, 19-17. The Rams will also be banged up defense coming into Sunday. Three rookies could be shouldering the load in the defensive backfield for St. Louis this week. A pretty difficult task for them playing in Kansas City. A 10-14 point win for the Chiefs looks realistic in this spot.

Texans / Titans Under 42

It could be the beginning of the Zach Mettenberger in Tennessee, or it could just be the beginning of another disappointment at the quarterback position for the Titans. Tough task to ask of Mettenberger to jump right into the fire against a furious Houston pass rush. Jake Locker has been so awful that the Titans are left with no other choice, though. As a whole the passing game stinks, no solid offensive line, receiving core, and the quarterback situation is up in the air. To add to the Titans misery, it is expected that defensive end Jadeveon Clowney will be healthy for Sunday. Tennessee is 27th in the NFL in total offense, scoring only 17 points per game and 320 yards. Now they'll have a rookie quarterback at the helm trying to run away from Clowney and JJ Watt. Mettenberger won't be able to run anywhere, he is a tall lengthy quarterback that doesn't have much mobility in the pocket. The Texans are entering 19th in total offense, and are putting up just 21 points per game on the board. This game could be a work in progress offensively. I don't foresee Mettenberger doing much in his first start against their defensive line. Clowney has been raring to get back on the field opposite Watt. Points should come at a premium, which makes the UNDER 42 look like a solid bet.

New Orleans Saints -2

Remember the Jaguars bet last week I hit? I am going in the same situational betting direction here with this pick. No I am not comparing the Jaguars to the Saints, but this is one of these spots it is good to take the team everyone is done with. Aaron Rodgers has been hotter than any quarterback in the league at the moment, so it has to mean he comes in and lights the Saints up, right? If it were that easy no one would have a 9-5 job and all would make a living sports betting. I think Drew Brees is too competitive of a player to come back home after last weeks collapse against the Lions and throw up another dud. The Packers should make life easy on Brees this week. The Saints won't be playing against a stingy defensive line like a week ago. This week they get the 2nd worst rush defense in the NFL. Green Bay is giving up 4.6 yards a carry for 148 yards allowed per game. Brees should be operating in short 2nd and 3rd downs, instead of having to force a ball on a 3rd and 10 constantly. The Saints haven't lost at home this season yet, and virtually never do period. They went 8-0 at home in 2013 as well. Betting against the Saints at home is a big no-no. The red hot 5-2 Packers playing the 2-4 Saints looks like an easy bet to make. However, I think the Saints put together their best game of the year Sunday night at home on SNF. The running game against an abysmal Packers' defense will dictate this game. It should be an entertaining game, one in which the Saints find themselves emerging with a victory in.

Vegas Butcher

Indianapolis Colts -3 -120

I was not impressed with Steelers at all on Monday Night. They were down 13-0 before Houston just totally fell apart, and allowed Pittsburgh to score 24 points in the final 3 minutes of the first half. After a Steelers 35-yard bomb for their first TD and a 13-10 deficit, Houston proceeded to fumble the ball and then throw a pick on two consecutive possessions inside their own 20-yard line. Steelers grabbed the 11-point lead and held on to win, but this was the case of the Texans giving the game away than Pittsburgh actually winning it on their own. Houston outgained Pittsburgh 6.2 YPP to 5.3, Fitzpatrick actually averaged a higher PY/A average than Roethlisberger (8.2 vs 8.0), and overall this mediocre Houston team seemed to be exactly on the same level as the Steelers throughout this game. The problem for Pittsburgh is that Indy is NOT mediocre. Colts come into this one ranking 5th in overall efficiency with a top-10 offense (#8), top-10 D (#9), and top-10 ST’s (#4). They’re not just dominating mediocre opponents like JAX and TEN, but they’re beating playoff contenders like BAL and CIN with ease. By comparison, Steelers have lost to a bad Tampa team at home, needed a pick-6 just to put away a bad Jags team, got demolished by CLE two weeks ago, and now barely survived a bad HOU team at home. Remember when Pittsburgh got totally smoked by a top-5 Baltimore team in week 2? I believe we’ll see a similar outcome against the Colts as well.

Green Bay Packers +1.5

While people are worried about fading the Saints at home, I’m going to flat out take the much better team in this contest. Saints are 2-0 at home, but big deal! They scored 20 at home against Minnesota (30th ranked team), who stayed in the game pretty much to the end. Then they needed OT to dispatch of a really bad Tampa squad. Losses to ATL and to CLE early in the year stood out even more, as those teams are two of the worst defensive teams in the league. If New Orleans can’t defeat teams that stink defensively, how are they going to compete against offensive juggernauts like the Packers, teams that can actually put up points? Well, we actually have a frame of reference, as the Saints got demolished against the Cowboys, team that ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency this season. Dallas scored on 6 of their 10 drives, averaged 6.8 YPP, and converted 8 of their 14 3rd down attempts. The Saints had some fumbles early that put them in a 24-0 halftime hole from which they just couldn’t recover. I’m sure the score would have been closer if not for the turnovers, but I want to emphasize the fact that this Saints’ 32nd (dead last) ranked D just couldn’t stop an elite offensive team like Dallas. Well, Packers rank 2nd in offensive efficiency. Their 4th ranked passing-O is going to go up against Saints’ 30th ranked passing-D, one of the biggest mismatches this weekend. In addition, Green Bay has the 6th best passing-D so far this season a key factor when facing a team like New Orleans. It should be easier for the Packers as Jimmy Graham is still severely limited and I don’t expect him to be 100% this Sunday. I know that New Orleans has been very dominant at home over the years, but this is just not the same team. Packers are an elite squad while the Saints are very mediocre. I’ll back the much better team as an underdog in this spot.