Mike O'Connor
Detroit (-3.5) 23 ATLANTA 19
The Lions have played excellent defense this season under new defensive coordinator Teryl Austin who has taken advantage of the strengths of their talented front seven. They face a favorable match-up this week against a Falcons offense that is struggling primarily due to the poor play of their offensive line. According to Pro football focus, Matt Ryan has faced pressure on 36.6% of his passes this season, tied for 6th most in the league as a result of a banged up offensive line that now appears to be down to their third starter at center. Undrafted rookie James Stone looks like he will get the start alongside a patchwork group that has not played well. Facing the Lions, who possess one of the most talented defensive lines in the league, I expect the Falcons to struggle. Part of the problem is that Atlanta doesn’t run the ball particularly well and will be facing my #2 rated run defense, one that allows just 74 yards at 3.4 ypr to teams that average 113 yards at 4.3 ypr. If they can’t run the ball, Detroit’s pass rush will make life difficult on Matt Ryan.
On the other side, a handicapped Lions offense missing their top playmaker in WR Calvin Johnson has done just enough to get by. He may be back for this game and if he is healthy the Lions offense could be explosive against a terrible Falcons defense that is allowing an average of 413 yards per game at 6.3 yppl against teams that average 353 yards at 5.6 yppl. This game is in London and the Falcons have not been good away from home, losing ten out of their last eleven. With their bye next week I don’t think the Lions will play Calvin Johnson this game as they’ll allow him to get an extra week of rest to get fully healthy. Without Johnson, my model favors the Lions by just 1.9 points. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game so this game is really a toss up to me. I’ll lean slightly with the Lions minus the points.
Wunderdog
Buffalo @ New York
Pick: Buffalo +3
Is a 1-6 team really favored here? Over the last quarter century, there have only been 10 instances of a team this bad after three weeks giving points to a winning opponent. The Jets won their opener, but have lost six games in a row. One problem is a defense that has allowed 24 points or more in each of the losses, while the offense has reached as many as 25 just one time all season. You don't have to be a math wizard to figure out why they are losing. New York just played a big game against their biggest rival, New England, and really spent a lot of emotional and physical energy in that game. So, I don't know how much is left in the tank here. Despite the "excitement" around acquiring Percy Harvin, the Jets season is essentially already over before the mid-way mark of the year. After a good start, Buffalo had lost three of four. They needed a win last week and eked one out 17-16 vs. Minnesota. There's nothing that can infuse a team like a win, and that leaves the Bills in pretty good shape at 4-3. Yes, the Bills are without their top two running backs but they weren't going to get a lot on the ground vs. the Jets anyway, and today's NFL is more about passing than running. The truth is, good running backs in today's NFL are a dime-a-dozen and Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon will likely fill the role just fine. And oh yeah - as far as I know, Sammy Watkins will still be on the field Sunday. Buffalo has gone 7-1 ATS after allowing greater than 150 yards rushing in their previous game as the defense makes a stand. The Jets, on the other hand, are 0-6-1 ATS after laying it all out in their previous game, holding their opponent to less than 90 yards rushing. The Jets will pay the price for last week and as hard as they played it will be tough to get it going after yet another loss. Buffalo in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit -3½ over Atlanta
The 2-5 Falcons will try to end a four-game losing streak and they’ll attempt to do that across the pond at Wembley Stadium in London. Away from Atlanta, the Dirty Birds have lost six straight. Since they defeated the Buccaneers 56-14, Atlanta has lost every game by double digits and even allowed the offensive-less Vikings to hang a 41 on them. Aside from being the worst-coached team in the NFL, Atlanta will now play this game with its third starting center in undrafted rookie James Stone. The Falcons have already suffered season-ending injuries to four offensive linemen: tackles Sam Baker (knee) and Lamar Holmes (foot), Hawley and reserve Mike Johnson. Defensively, Atlanta has no pass rush whatsoever, which does not bode well here against Detroit. When you give quality QB’s time in this league they will rip you apart and that’s precisely what we expect to see from Matthew Stafford.
The Lions have been harassing quarterbacks all season and have the best defensive QBR in the NFL. Matt Ryan has been sacked on over 5% of his attempts this year, which is a disturbing number under any circumstance and now he’s facing a top-ranked unit with a makeshift line and third string center trying to protect him. Atlanta suffered a lot of injuries last year and went on to post an awful 4-12 record. This year the injuries are even worse and so are margins in which they are getting buried. Losing has taken a toll on this entire staff and it’s not about to change. Nothing about these squads is remotely comparable right now and it will be evident within minutes of kickoff that the Falcons are up against it once again. Unless Atlanta gets every bounce go their way, and that still might not be enough, they are going down by double-digits again. If Teddy Bridgewater went off for over 300 yards and 41 points against this Falcons’ defense, Stafford might go off for 600 yards and 80 points.
KANSAS CITY -7 over St. Louis
The Chiefs came off their bye last week and went into San Diego and won outright as a four-point pooch. Kansas City is gaining steam with four strong performances in a row, winning three of them and losing by just five in San Fran. The Chiefs have not played at home since Week 4 when they whacked the Patriots, 41-14. Since then, they’ve played twice on the road with a bye in between. Aside from the unexplainable opening loss to the Titans, the defense has been quietly very good at holding opponents down. Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles are a solid RB/QB combination and overall these Chiefs are pretty sound. They have the Jets on deck so this is not a look ahead game. It’s a chance for the Chiefs to solidify their playoff chances.
We’re not going to dissect the Rams because this fade has nothing to do with X’s and O’s and everything to do with the situation. St. Louis is in a horrible scheduling spot here and because of that they just might get whacked. The Rams are coming off games against San Francisco in prime time and Seattle last week. They defeated the Super Bowl Champs in a hugely emotional game and to make matters worse they have the 49ers up again next week in San Francisco. This road game against an AFC team is now sandwiched between San Fran, Seattle and San Fran again. After beating Seattle last week, taking seven points may look appealing but St. Louis isn’t braced for a big game here. Instead, they are in a near impossible spot that often leads to a huge defeat.
TAMPA BAY -3 over Minnesota
The Vikings finished with a 5-10-1 record last year, but had they not blown leads in the final minute of five games, they would have finished 10-6. They have a new coaching staff now and a new quarterback, but the outlook stays the same. They allowed journeyman Kyle Orton to throw for 105 yards on an 80-yard drive, including a pair of key passes to Sammy Watkins – who scored the game-winning touchdown with one second left on the clock. The more things change in Minnesota, the more they stay the same and our original prognostication on Teddy Bridgewater was way off. Dude is not NFL ready; not even close. Bridgewater holds the ball far too long, a common mistake among rookie QB’s and when he does get rid of it he misses his targets by five yards. The Vikes rank #29 in overall offense and are last in passing offense.
Take away the first quarter and the Bucs are actually a decent club. They have been outscored in the first quarter by a remarkable count of 72-17 but it’s pretty difficult to envision the pitiful Vikings putting up a crooked number in the first. Furthermore, the Bucs are coming off another embarrassing performance two weeks in Baltimore, where they were walloped 48-17. The last time they were walloped in Atlanta (56-14), Tampa Bay responded with a win in Pittsburgh the next time out as an 8-point underdog. Now they’ve had two weeks to prepare and that’s a long time to prepare with that latest loss hanging over their heads. Mike Glennon is getting better. He's not only thrown for two scores in each of the last three games, but twice he topped 300 yards in the process while only throwing one interception per week. More impressive still - he threw for 302 yards in a road game in Pittsburgh and later 314 yards at home against the Ravens defense. Minnesota is playing its third road game in four weeks here and that’s difficult for even the best of teams. Now we’re getting the better all-around team at home, coming off a bye and a horrible loss. Getting them at this price is a great bargain.
CINCINNATI +104 over Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-2. They have won two in a row and four of its past five games. The Ravens last three wins were by scores of 38-10, 48-17 and 29-7. That’s a combined 115 to 34 and blowout wins often cause an overreaction. String three blowout wins together and that overreaction is even bigger. In other words, Baltimore’s stock is soaring through the roof, which provides us with this sell-high opportunity. It should be noted, however, that Baltimore’s three blowout wins occurred against Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.
When the Bengals got off to a 3-0 start, they were making their statement that the road to the Super Bowl was going through Cincinnati. The city even had the parade mapped out. That seems like such a long time ago. In the last three weeks, the Bengals allowed New England to score nine times in a 43-17 blowout, missed a chip-shot field goal to tie Carolina and got shut out by Indianapolis. In other words, Cincinnati’s stock has hit rock bottom in much the same way New England’s did after the Patriots were whacked in Kansas City. If anyone had suggested three weeks ago that Baltimore would be favored in Cincinnati in Week 8, they would have been carted off to an asylum. Yeah, things do change in this league from week to week but this line is a big overreaction to Baltimore’s three blowout wins and Cincinnati’s three ugly losses. Let us now point out that Cincinnati has not lost at Paul Brown Stadium since December of 2012. That’s a streak of 11-0-1 since then and now the Bengals are a dog at home to a Baltimore team that has averaged 14 points a game in Cincinnati since 2009 and that has lost four of the past five here. This is a classic buy-low/sell-high situation and we’re on it.
Randall the Handle
Best Bets
Vikings (2-5) at Buccaneers (1-5)
When QB Christian Ponder is your other option, continuing to nurture Teddy Bridgewater is the more sensible way to go. The Vikings are not a contending team and they may as well see what they have in their young draft choice. Trouble is, that you lose a lot of games during this audition stage. Sure, Teddy caught some lightning in a bottle against the Falcons (who doesn’t?) about a month ago, but it’s been downhill from there. After returning from an injury two games ago, Bridgewater has not thrown for 200 yards in a game. He’s thrown one touchdown compared to five interceptions and Minnesota’s passing game has dropped to dead last in the league, averaging 183.9 yards per game. The Bucs have had issues stopping the pass, but it shouldn’t be a concern against this impotent aerial attack. Tampa has had an extra week to prepare and they’ll be plenty motivated, having yet to win at home in three earlier attempts. Despite Tampa’s dreary 1-5 start, they are just two games back of this meek division’s lead. Look for strong effort against an incapable guest. TAKING: BUCCANEERS –2½
Seahawks (3-3) at Panthers (3-3)
Enough of this nonsense. It’s time for the Seahawks to get well and they may have picked a perfect opponent to do so. The Panthers are not the strong defensive unit they were a year ago. Myriad secondary losses and injuries have left Carolina’s defence as thin as the talent level in the woeful NFC South. These guys have allowed 174 points over their past five games, an average of almost 35 per contest. Things are so desperate that the Panthers have to start James Dockery at corner, their third corner in as many weeks and a guy that wasn’t on an NFL roster three weeks ago. The Seahawks have had issues of their own, both on and off the field. But QB Russell Wilson is playing his butt off and, with his leadership qualities, he’ll get his championship team reined-in sooner than later. Even though Seattle was upset in St. Louis last week, the Seachickens outgained the Rams by nearly 200 yards. Special teams and distractions did them in, but don’t expect the same against this defenceless foe. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –5
Packers (5-2) at Saints (2-4)
No, this is not a pre-Halloween trick. You really do get to spot this small price with a New Orleans team that has won 19 straight on its own field. They’ve played two games here this year and won them both. So the Saints didn’t cover against Tampa Bay as an 11-point favourite, their first non-cover in those 19 consecutive wins. Let’s discount them right down to where they basically just need to win for a cover here? We understand that the Packers have elevated their game since an inauspicious start, but let’s not overlook that they weren’t very good in three of four road games thus far. Green Bay lost at Seattle and Detroit, before being very fortunate to take down the Dolphins in final seconds two weeks ago. We understand that the Saints sit a couple games below .500, but they’ve been losing the turnover battle, while Green Bay is among the league leaders in turnover ratio. These things tend to balance out and, in front of a crazed N’awlins crowd on Sunday night, we’re very comfortable needing the bounces to go New Orleans’ way in a stadium at which they never lose. TAKING: NEW ORLEANS –1½
THE REST
Falcons (2-4) versus Lions (5-2)
While this one will be played at Wembley Stadium in London, England, you’d be able to see the holes in this Atlanta defence from Planet Mars. The Falcons have been just average at home, but they remain brutal on the road. They’ve lost all four of their away games by a combined 59 points, an average of nearly 15 points per game. Atlanta’s two wins have come within this porous division, defeating a pair of NFC South foes who are a combined 3-9. Meanwhile, the Lions have become a top defensive club, holding five of seven opponents to under 17 points. Expect QB Matt Ryan to be running for his life here. TAKING: LIONS –3½
Bears (3-4) at Patriots (5-2)
Screwy Bears. Currently 0-3 at home and 3-1 away, Chicago travels again to face what appears to be a repaired New England team, one that most thought was broken after being crushed at Kansas City. Maybe the Patriots are okay, but facing a trio since then that included the suddenly mediocre Bengals, the Bills and the Jets, can we really be sure? New England has some injury concerns with key LB Jerod Mayo and RB Steven Ridley gone. Now the Pats get this NFC opponent that hails from a decent NFC division and it comes before a home date with arch-frenemy Peyton Manning and the Broncos next week. Bears leave it all out there this week. TAKING: BEARS +6
Rams (2-4) at Chiefs (3-3)
While it is better to give than to receive, that doesn’t apply to these Chiefs. Kansas City has been underdogs in five of six games this year, covering four and pushing once. In the lone game that K.C. was giving, they were smoked 26-10 by the dreadful Titans. Granted, this will be Kansas City’s easiest contest in a month after facing the Patriots and Niners and upsetting the Chargers last week. But teams commonly play to the level of their opponent and since Andy Reid’s arrival here, his Chiefs have covered just two of their past eight as chalk. The Rams are high off a win over Seattle and should be motivated here for Missouri bragging rights. TAKING: RAMS +7
Bills (4-3) at Jets (1-6)
The Jets have had a tough schedule, leading to their dismal 1-6 start. While things may get a little easier now, we’re still not prepared to spot points with a team that couldn’t even cover at home to Oakland. The Jets also lost straight-up when favoured here over the Bears. The Bills arrive with issues to their running game, but they still have skilled position players on offence where the Jets simply do not. Percy Harvin was acquired to help, but he’s expected to see limited action while he learns this offence. The Bills lead the league with 24 sacks and that doesn’t bode well for the Jets’ careless QB Geno Smith. TAKING: BILLS +3
Dolphins (3-3) at Jaguars (1-6)
The Fish have not given away this many road points since the Dan Marino days. However, the line sometimes shouts directions at you and we’re hearing them loud and clear. The Jaguars notched their first win of the year last week, but little has changed in Florida’s northeast. Rookie QB Blake Bortles somehow overcame three interceptions to defeat Cleveland, his 12th turnover in four games, and that is a sure recipe for losing in most cases. On the flip side, Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is in a groove and his squad won’t let up here as they remain in contention for the AFC East. TAKING: DOLPHINS –6
Texans (3-4) at Titans (2-5)
QB Zach Mettenberger will get his first pro start for this one. That’s fine, as we’d fade QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as a road favourite even if Zach Galifianakis was the opposing starter. Fitzpatrick is a turnover machine and he’ll play against a defence that knows him from practice a year ago when he played in Nashville. The Texans are outgained in every game they play and, if not for the extreme defensive talents of J.J. Watt, this Houston team would be worse off than it already is. Houston is travelling for the third time in four games and this one takes place on a short week after a demoralizing loss in Pittsburgh on Monday. TAKING: TITANS +3
Ravens (5-2) at Bengals (3-2-1)
It may be difficult to get all revved up about the Bengals during this current slide, especially with the Ravens winning and playing at a high level. But, similar to New Orleans, we see great value with the home side. Cincinnati has not lost on this field since December 2012. That’s a streak of 11 games and now we’re asked to spot a measly point against a Baltimore team that Cincy already took down in the Ravens’ own backyard. The Bengals could get much-needed WR A.J. Green back for this one. His presence makes a huge difference — mentally and physically — for both combatants. TAKING: BENGALS +1
Eagles (5-1) at Cardinals (5-1)
Not sure if either of these two will be deserving of a 6-1 record, but one of them is headed there. It very well could be the Eagles. Arizona’s depleted defence might be functional against the likes of the Raiders and Redskins, but we highly doubt it can hold up against Philadelphia’s rested and potent offence. Philly is healthier than it has been all year and it will get back some key players, including LG Evan Mathis. Picking up where they left off against the Giants, the Eagles’ fine group of tight ends (eight catches, 118 yards and two TDs) should be able to inflict similar damage to Arizona’s most gaping weakness. TAKING: EAGLES +3
Colts (5-2) at Steelers (4-3)
Hard to gauge how good the Colts are as they’ve had a significantly soft schedule. That said, good teams defeat the teams they are supposed to and the Steelers qualify. Pittsburgh is playing winning football, but its record is better than it is. The Steelers have played the Browns twice, splitting with a narrow win and then being clobbered, the Jaguars in a close one and Houston on Monday night where they had a three-minute spurt that secured the game against a sloppy Texans team. Most important is Pittsburgh’s defence, a unit that can be easily exposed and, with Andrew Luck’s ascension as a top pivot in this league, he should have little trouble with this meager host. TAKING: COLTS –3
Raiders (0-6) at Browns (3-3)
It’s been a while since the Browns have been laying seven and this follows an embarrassing loss to the lowly Jaguars. Following up a loss to winless Jacksonville with another to these winless Raiders would set Cleveland back beyond their low point of recent years. We have to think they’ll rebound against an Oakland team that hasn’t won in 12 games and that has not topped 14 points in 11 of those 12 contests. Jacksonville was successful by stopping Cleveland’s run game. The Raiders don’t have that same ability, as they’ve allowed opponents to rush for 145 yards per game, fourth-most in the league. TAKING: BROWNS –7
Redskins (2-5) at Cowboys (6-1)
Wow, 10 points? This Dallas thing could be getting out of hand. We can’t deny how well the Cowboys are playing, seemingly unstoppable with DeMarco Murray shredding defences and Tony Romo taking advantage by not being forced to win games with his arm. But this is Redskins-Cowboys, a rivalry that goes beyond the merits of each team. Washington has covered seven of its past eight versus its rivals, and the two times it was receiving generous points like this, it lost by three and one respectively. Perhaps Colt McCoy starting for the Redskins has bolstered this spread, but is he really much of a dropoff from Kirk Cousins? TAKING: REDSKINS +10
Rob Vinciletti
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +3
The Bengals were shutout last week by the Colts and now return home to face a Hot Baltimore team that they beat on the road in week 1. Cincy will look t get back on track and home teams that scored 9 or less points and lost on the road by 21 or more are perfect to the spread since 1989 v an opponent off a home win that scored 28 or more points. In Fact road teams that are off back to back wins by 15 or more points are 4-19 ats if the line is -3 to +2 and their opponent is off a loss. The Ravens are 1-14 ats on the road off a home win where they had 3 or more minutes in time of possession than their season average. The Bengals are 8-0 ats if they had a turnover margin of +2 or more. Look for the Bengals to get th win.
Tony George
Detroit -4
Maybe the Falcons can play better football in a different country. Is Mike Smith still head coach? Well there is your answer. The Dirty Birds are a team who is in a total mis-match here. The offensive line of Atlanta has as much to do with their demise as anything, as QB Ryan was sacked 5 times last week by the Ravens in a game they were only in at the coin flip, after that they were dominated again. The Lions D-Line is the best in football and the Lions defense ranked #1 and despite all Ryans weapons, they do not have time for plays to develop and Atlanta cannot run the ball to save their life. This is a team with no team chemistry and no identity.
Detroit's offense should have better numbers than they do, but the defense is carrying them this season. WR Johnson has practiced but is doubtful or at least not 100%, but QB Stafford has numerous weapons at WR and a 1-2 punch at RB with Bush healthy again that should control this game from the opening bell. The Falcons have dropped 4 straight games by double digits and this is the best defense they have seen. I know the NFL many times is zig-zag week to week with numerous teams, but Atlanta after a quick start to the season has been consistently bad. On a Neutral site this line should be 7 points, I like the value on the vastly better team who is in a dogfight for their division with a hot Green Bay team, and this is a winnable road game they need.
King Creole
Eagles / Cardinals Over 48
A 'battle of the birds' always begins in the AIR... and there should be plenty of passing yards in the EAGLES / CARDNALS game. After all, we're talking the 2nd worst pass defense (ARZ allows 285 PYPG) against the #24 pass defense (PHIL: 257 PYPG allowed). Not only that, but on OFFENSE... these two teams are ranked #1 and #2 this season inlong pass attempts per game (at > 20 yards per attempt). The host Cardinals lead the league in average pass distance, a refection of HC Bruce Arians' offensive philosophy (taking a LOT of shots downfield). Arizona plays in the NFL West while Philly plays in the NFC East. 9-1 O/U s'2005: All NFC WEST division home favorites of < 7 pts (CARDS) versus a NFC EAST division opponent (EAGLES). Eastern teams traveling West in an 'expected' shootout have delivered high-scoring results as of late. 6-1 O/U last 2 seasons: All NFL East Division (AFC or NFC) road underdogs (ARZ) versus All NFL West Division (AFC or NFC) opponents (PHIL).. when the OU line is 47 or more points.
We're certainly aware that the visiting Eagles allowed ZERO points in their last game (a 27-0 win over the Giants). 6-0 O/U s'2009: All 'pick em' or underdogs of < 9 points (EAGLES) playing off a home SHUTOUT win. Philly come into this game with a week of rest, as well. 9-1 O/U last 5 years: All non-division road underdogs of 6 41 points. For the host Cardinals, they come in off a pretty easy double-digit road win against the Oakland Raiders (score was 24-13). 11-1 O/U s'2007: All GAME 13 or less non-division favorites of 7 < pts off a SUATS non-division road FAV win in which they allowed < 14 points (CARDINALS). So both of these teams come in off two very good defensive efforts in their last game. 17-4 O/U since 2003: All home favorites when BOTH teams (CARDS + EAGLES) allowed 13 43 points. Final score in the 'Bird Blitzkrieg': 31 to 27...
Stephen Nover
NY Jets -3
The Jets aren't making the playoffs. But it's a mistake to write them off - especially in this game. There are reasons why the oddsmaker has made the Jets the first 1-6 team to be favored against an opponent with a winning record.
New York's defense isn't nearly as bad as the statistics may indicate. The Jets had an impossible draw facing a Murderer's Row of quarterback in their past six games going against Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Those are all elite passers.
Now the Jets drop all the way down to Kyle Orton, a career backup who is more game manager than downfield attacker. Orton needs weapons and he'll be without Buffalo's two top running backs as Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are both out with injuries. The Jets have a stout run defense ranking eighth. Orton is going to have to make plays - which is not his strength.
New York has just three takeaways, fewest in the NFL. That stems, though, from playing against outstanding quarterbacks. Orton has thrown 17 touchdown passes and been intercepted 14 times during the past five years.
The Bills were fortunate to beat the Lions and Vikings during the past three weeks, nipping Minnesota at home last Sunday on the final play.
The Jets are playing hard for popular Rex Ryan. They would have covered against Denver a couple of weeks ago if not for a pick-six by Geno Smith with 15 seconds left and they outplayed New England last week losing when a long field goal attempt was blocked on the final play.
New York enters this matchup having had extra rest and preparation time from having played on a Thursday and with their offense and special teams tremendously upgraded by the addition of Percy Harvin.
The Jets' offense is better now with Harvin giving Smith another receiving option besides steady Eric Decker and emerging tight end Jace Amaro. Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson are a respectable running back tandem.
The Jets have won the past four times hosting the Bills.
Jim Feist
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: St. Louis Rams
The Chiefs are almost in must win situations as they sit at 3-3, two games back of San Diego and 2 1/2 back of Denver. The Chiefs defense is strong again this year, ranked 6th in scoring and 2nd in passing. However, they have been suseptible to the run, ranking 18th (117.7 ypg) and face the third best rushing team in the Rams. The Chiefs haven't been the best at covering at home recently, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home contests. This will be just the third home game for KC after losing at home to the Titans and beating the Patriots at home. Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-0 ATS on the road this season, covering at Tampa Bay and covering at Philadelphia. The Rams will expect to see a lot of Jamaal Charles in this game. The Rams are coming off that big win over Seattle last week. Austin Davis leads the Rams and hopes he gets the protection he received last week where he wasn't sacked one time. The Chiefs have had a banged up secondary so if Davis has time, he will be looking for his deep threat in Quick. Arrowhead is a tough place to play but the Chiefs have been favored just one time all season and that was a loss. Not the role this team plays best in so I'm taking the road dog.
Marc Lawrence
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Oakland Raiders
Edges - Raiders: 11-2 ATS as road dogs of 6 or more points a losing record off an NFC game; and 6-1 ATS with revenge off a double-digit home loss. Browns: 0-8 ATS versus opponents with revenge who scored 7 or fewer points last game. With Oakland enjoying the benefit from a late 4:25 ET kick off, and interim head coach Tony Sparano 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS as a road dog against opponents off a SU loss, we’ll grab the points. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.
Kyle Hunter
Bills / Jets Over 40½
The Buffalo Bills passing attack has definitely gotten better since Kyle Orton was moved to the starting spot instead of Manuel. Buffalo has the play makers on the outside to burn a Jets secondary that isn't good at all. New York is strong up front defensively, but I look for the Bills to get the ball out quickly and get it to their receivers in space where they can make big plays. The Jets offense should improve with Percy Harvin, and the Bills secondary is only mediocre. Geno Smith is good for points one way or another with his style of play. He might create points for his team, or he might set up the other team with interceptions. Four of the last five meetings between these two have gone over the total.
Ray Monohan
Cincinnati +1
The Bengals are up against it right now. They have not won a game since their 3-0 start and this one is huge with the division leading Ravens coming to town. Cincy beat Baltimore in week 1 and I think they can do it again. They are nearly automatic at home. The game opened with them as the favourite and now has flipped which makes it even better value. Both of these teams are banged up but the Bengals get it done in an emotional fight.
Oliver Alonso
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans +3½
I understand playing against a team where their quarterbacks is making first start, especially a rookie quarterback that wasn't drafted until the sixth round (See Tom Brady), but, money that is flooding in on the Texans will provide great valve with the Titans when the air clears. Tennessee will be starting their fifth quarterback in the last three seasons and the team knows it must rally on the defensive side of the ball. The advantage here going to the home team as the Houston offense in nothing to brag about. The Texans blocks for rushing game are too primitive and the Titans have a tough front seven. I don't expect an easy day for Arian Foster. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a clockbomb. He is able to made a big play in the game but never without turnovers.
The Texans' defense depends on JJ Watt. The Titans' O-Line has been look solid and Maybe Ken Wisenhunt will order double blocks on Watt. The secondary is a hole and the linebackers an empty unit. The D-Line in a 3-4 scheme is supporting the entire defense. I expect the Titans to dominate the sccrimmage line in both sides of the ball and take the game!
Joseph D'Amico
Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Seattle Seahawks -5
As Seattle has suffered back-to-back losses, they roll into Carolina and face a Panthers team that has just 1 win in their L5 contests. Their "D" is allowing more points (35 PPG their L5) as the season progresses. And with no ability to stop the run, the #2 Seahawks ranked rushing game will decimate the Panthers while QB, Russell Wilson will exploit the vulnerable Carolina secondary. The Seahawks defense can contain Cam Newton and the non-existent running game of the Panthers. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS their L5 meetings in this series, 12-4 ATS their L16 road games, and 20-8 ATS their L28 vs. the NFC.
Jesse Schule
Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Seattle Seahawks -5
Seattle looks to avoid it's third straight loss on the road at Carolina this week, while the Panthers are trying to bounce back from a blowout loss to the Packers in Green Bay last week. Carolina has really struggled defensively, surrendering a total of 75 points the last two weeks.
Seattle out-gained the Rams 463-272, but they were hoodwinked by Jeff Fisher and his bag of tricks. Russell Wilson had a big game throwing for over 300 yards and two TDs running for 100+ yards and a score.
The Seahawks have won three straight versus the Panthers, and the last two were in Carolina. Wilson had a big game throwing for 320 yards and a TD in last year's 12-7 win. Cam Newton on the other hand has not had much success against this Seattle defense. He threw for just 123 yards on 16-of-23 passing in last season's Week 1 loss.
The Panthers are 2-1 at home this season, but their one loss was an ugly 37-19 blowout versus the Steelers. It looked like they would go on to lose to Chicago a few weeks later, going down 21-7 early, but they rallied to score 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, winning by a score of 31-24.
The Seahawks have been a good bet on the road in recent seasons, covering the points in 12 of their last 16 road games.