Bryan Power
Houston vs. Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee
Somewhat predictably, this line has been bet up in the direction of Houston after Titans HC Ken Whisenhunt made the decision to go with rookie Zach Mettenberger at QB. But ask yourself, can Mettenberger really be that big of a downgrade compared to Jake Locker or Charlie Whitehurst? I think the answer is no...
In fact, there is the chance that Mettenberger might actually be better. What we do know here is that Houston is just 1-7 ATS its last eight division games. Both teams are desperate as the Texans have lost three in row while the Titans' lone win over the last six weeks came by two points at home over Jacksonville. But there is the fact that their last three games have all been decided by a field goal or less, and by a total of five points. They could actually be coming into this game w/ a winning record and on a three-game winning streak.
There figures to be plenty of turnovers in this game as both teams rank at the top of the league in both creating and losing TO's. Houston had a now infamous late 1st Half meltdown Monday night in Pittsburgh, shades of the forgotten Matt Schaub era, that may carry over into this week. I just think that at the end of the day, I see a Texans team drawing extremely lopsided action that probably shouldn't be. It's worth taking the points now, with the number climbing past a field goal.
Dwayne Bryant
Jets -150
Jets have been playing much better football recently. They came within a blocked FG of beating the Patriots and they would've covered against Denver if not for a Pick-6 in the closing seconds of that game. The Jets have played against talented QBs Rodgers, Cutler, Stafford, Rivers, Peyton & Brady. Today they get to face a much less talented QB in Kyle Orton. Buffalo needed a TD in the closing seconds to escape with a one-point home win over Minnesota last Sunday and must now play without their top two RBs due to injuries (C.J. Spiller & Fred Jackson). Not expecting much from Percy Harvin out of the gate here, but he does make their return game much more explosive. The Jets have also had extra prep time, having last played two Thursdays ago.
Seahawks -5
I'll gladly lay less than a TD with the defending champs off two straight losses. After suffering a rare home loss to Dallas two weeks ago, the 'Hawks got embarrassed in St. Louis by the Rams. Seattle clearly outplayed the Rams in the box score, but several trick plays were too much for Seattle to overcome. I expect their A+ game today against a Carolina team that has really struggled defensively.
Ravens -127
Revenge game for the Ravens. The Bengals went into Baltimore in Week 1 and came away with a 23-16 win. It's payback time. The Ravens have been blowing teams out, while the Bengals defense has really struggled lately. No A.J. Green for the Bengals (6 catches, 131 yards, 1 TD in Week 1 matchup) only makes things tougher on the Bengals. Ravens get revenge today.
MLB Predictions
San Francisco Giants -152
If the Giants win this series, we're going to look back at the previous game and see it as a turning point. The Royals had a chance to put the Giants in a big hole and go up 3-1 in this series. Instead, they blew a 4-1 lead and now San Fran has all the momentum. Momentum is on the Giants side, and a pitcher named Madison Bumgarner is in their corner as well. Although the series is tied, that was a game KC had to win. It certainly is very possible that they lose this one against Bumgarner, and then they'll need to win 2 straight. Getting to Bumgarner isn't going to be easy, it seems like nothing is going to get to him at this point. He has been locked in throughout the postseason. Note his 1.40 ERA and 0.72 WHIP to go along with a 4-1 record. Batters are hitting only .162 against him as well. 6 is the most hits he's given up in a game in the playoffs. James Shields has been wilting under the pressure, though. He carries a 8.05 ERA this postseason into tonight. Additionally, Shields has a WHIP of 2.00. He said he tweaked his pitching mechanics and feels confident about game 5. A pitcher addressing mechanics days before game 5 of the World Series does not instill any confidence in me. The Royals and their chance yesterday to take firm control of this series, they blew it. Now they're going to have their hands full against Bumgarner.
River City Sharps
KC Chiefs -7
Really good situational play here as the Kansas City Chiefs return home to take on the St. Louis Rams, fresh off their upset win over the Seattle Seahawks. While the Chiefs started off this season struggling, they are now playing some of their best football of the season as evidenced by their 23-20 win at San Diego last Sunday. The Chiefs success can clearly be tied to the improved play of Alex Smith, who has eight TD passes to just one pick over his last four games, which has helped open up more opportunities for RB Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs running game. That’s going to be a problem for the Rams today who are the 28th ranked run defense in the NFL in both yards per game and yards per carry. While the Rams win over the Seahawks was a big statement for them, you have to realize that they pulled every trick in the book to get the win (fake punt, fake punt return, etc.) and the truth of the matter is that the Seahawks are a very average team away from home. One team that you can always count on to play well at home is these Chiefs, especially against non-conference foes. Since 1992, the Chiefs are 29-14 ATS vs. non-conference opponents and more recently, the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Rams haven’t handled success well, evidenced by their 1-4 ATS mark in their last five games off an ATS win. You are going to see lots of Charles running at the Rams defense, setting up for play action from Smith and what should make for a long day for the Rams defense. Chiefs by double digits.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +122 over VANCOUVER
OT included. It’s amazing how a coach can come in and change the entire culture of a team. Barry Trotz has the Capitals paying very close attention to details and this team is winning hockey games impressively. Washington is spending less time in their own end through the first seven games than any team in the NHL. Over their last three games, the Capitals have allowed 21, 20 and 21 shots on net respectively against Florida, Edmonton and Calgary. Against Edmonton in the first game of this three-game trip, they outshot them 34-20, spent the entire third period in the Oilers zone and lost 3-2. Against the Sharkies five games ago, they held San Jose to 23 shots on net but lost 6-5 because Braden Holtby was way off. When you limit the opposition to 7 or 8 shots on net per period, you are almost always going to have a great chance of winning. Trotz figures to have a strong game plan here to shut down the Sedin line and when that line is held to one goal or less, the Canucks chances of winning decrease dramatically.
Vancouver returns home from a three-game trip through Dallas, St. Louis and Colorado. They were outshot in the final two games of that trip, 80-52. Ryan Miller has been yanked twice this year. He has an average GAA of 2.71 and a below average save percentage of .907. Surprisingly, the Canucks are scoring a lot of goals but hockey analytics say it’s not going to last because the Canucks take way more minor penalties than the opposition and their shooting percentage, which is high, is going to regress. Washington is playing so solid right now. They are buying into Trotz’s system more and more with each passing victory. They were tough as shoe leather last night in Calgary and they figure to limit the Canucks scoring chances here. In terms of value, one has to give the Capitals at least a 50% or more chance of winning.
Pass MLB
Chase Diamond
Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots
Play: Chicago Bears +7
This game features the 3-4 Bears at the 5-2 Patriots. Bears find themselves in a must win game in New England and really I see a big line value if you can get a better team with plus points. Patriots have won 3 straight but are facing a team that is 3-1 on the road this season and are finally getting healthier. Patriots are in a major look ahead spot as they play Denver next look for them to come out flat tonight. 58% of the public is backing the Patriots here yet this line has been moving the other way telling us who the sharps are backing today.
Larry Ness
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs NEEDED a road win badly at San Diego last Sunday and got it, evening their record at 3-3. The Chargers lost this past Thursday at Denver and fell to 5-3, meaning the Chiefs can pull within a half-game of them with a win here. KC is moving forward with confidence. Two weeks removed from a frustrating five-point loss at San Francisco that dropped its record below .500, Kansas City snapped San Diego's five-game winning streak with a 23-20 road victory last Sunday. Rookie Cairo Santos' wobbly 48-yard field goal with 21 seconds left capped a nine-play, 62-yard drive and helped the Chiefs remain a threat in the AFC West. Head coach Andy Reid improved to 14-2 in games immediately following the bye week.
"I think overall the whole picture is good,” said quarterback Alex Smith, who has thrown eight TDs and one interception in the last four games. “I think this team is in a good place mentally. This was an opportunity for us to kind of show what we're made of, show the country. I feel like we're in a good place and we'll keep going." That's the plan for the Chiefs, who were outscored 50-27 while opening with consecutive losses to Tennessee and Denver. Since, Kansas City has averaged 28.8 PPG and not allowed more than 22 in a game while winning THREE of four.
The Rams are off an impressive win of their own, 28-26 over Seattle but a closer look reveals the Rams were fortunate to win that game. St Louis allowed Russell Wilson to become the first NFL quarterback to pass for at least 300 yards and rush for 100 and was outgained 463 to 272 overall, benefitting from a pair of key special teams plays. Stedman Bailey returned a punt 90 yards for a TD in the second quarter. As the ball was in the air, teammate Tavon Austin faked out the Seahawks by staggering then tumbling while preparing to make a phantom catch on the opposite sideline. Then with 2:55 remaining in the game while ahead by two and facing a fourth-and-3 from their own 18, the Rams executed a perfect fake punt when punter Johnny Hekker hit Benny Cunningham with an 18-yard pass.
Lightning doesn’t figure to strike two weeks in a row for the Rams, especially when one notes that the Chiefs have won the last FIVE meetings against the Rams by an average of 19.0 PPG! Lay the points!
Jack Jones
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been trending in the right direction ever since Blake Bortles took over as starting quarterback in Week 4 against San Diego. They lost by 19 points to the Chargers, by 8 point to the Steelers, by 2 points to the Titans, and then beat the Browns by 18 points last week. Bortles is going to be a special player in this league for years to come, and he’s not waiting long to show it.
Jacksonville has really outplayed its last two opponents in Tennessee and Cleveland. It outgained the Titans 379-290 for the game and really probably should have won that contest in a 14-16 loss. It outgained the Browns 336-266 in its 24-6 victory last week while forcing three turnovers. As you can see, the defense is really coming alive in holding their last two opponents to 11.0 points and 278.0 yards per game, so it’s not just Bortles who is stepping up.
Bortles does deserve a lot of the credit, though, because he is completing 65.5 percent of his passes this year and making this offense go. He has formed a very nice chemistry with rookie Allen Robinson, who has 34 receptions for 371 yards and a touchdown this season and is easily the most talented receiver on the roster. Denard Robinson proved he could handle the workload last week in the backfield, rushing 22 times for 127 yards and a score against Cleveland.
I believe the Dolphins are overvalued here as 6.5-point road favorites in this one. They are getting a lot of love for their 27-14 win at Chicago last week, which is the same Bears team that is 0-3 at home this year. Many are quick to forget their 19-point loss to Buffalo in Week 2 and their 19-point loss to Kansas City in Week 3. Sure, the Dolphins are better since then, but asking them to win on the road by a touchdown or more to cover the spread against the improving Jaguars is asking too much.
Miami is 22-39 ATS in its last 61 games off an upset win as an underdog. The Dolphins are 10-27 ATS in their last 27 games following a game where they had a turnover margin of +3 or better. The Bears essentially gave that game away last week by committing three turnovers. The Dolphins are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Dave Price
St. Louis Rams +7
The Rams are off a big win over Seattle but expect no letdown. They have been extremely competitive this season, taking Dallas to overtime and losing to Philadelphia on the road by only six. Those teams are 11-2 combined. Jeff Fisher's teams are 10-0 ATS all-time off an upset win at home over a division rival. They have won by an average score of 23.6 to 16.5 in this spot. The Chiefs have been overvalued at home a lot lately and are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven at Arrowhead as a result. Kansas City runs the ball well, and the Rams have struggled to stop the run. However, I look for them to have success against the Kansas City running game today. The Chiefs don't pose much of a threat with their 30th-ranked passing offense so look for the Rams to stack the box and keep Jamaal Charles in check.
Matt Fargo
Eagles vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 48
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We won with the Arizona/Oakland under last Sunday which sets up a good opportunity for a higher scoring game this week. The Cardinals defense has been solid for the most part, allowing 20 points or less in five of its six games, including 14 points or less three times. However, they did allow 41 points against Denver and facing another potent offense will have the defense in trouble again. The Eagles are coming off their bye week following a 27-0 shutout of the Giants. That defensive effort was by far the best of the season but we can consider that an anomaly as Philadelphia allowed an average of 28.8 ppg in its previous four games. The Eagles now are catching a good number because of that last game. We play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. This situation is 33-8 (80.5 percent) to the over the last five seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Oakland Raiders +7
There’s definitely some value on Oakland in this matchup. Prior to the season the Browns were expected to be a 4.5-point favorite. Now we see them laying a touchdown following an ugly 6-24 loss at Jacksonville last week. Sure the Browns whooped up on the Steelers a couple weeks back, but their other two wins have come by a combined 3 points and one of those they had to rally from a 25-point deficit. Cleveland is a lot closer to a 1-5 team than what most people think and it’s a big reason why I’m taking this awful Oakland team getting a touchdown.
The Raiders have shown some life since returning from their Week 5 bye, which also was when they fired head coach Dennis Allen and promoted Tony Sporano to interim head coach. They gave the Chargers all they could handle in a 28-31 loss in Week 6 and this past Sunday lost by a final of just 13-24 to the now 5-1 Cardinals.
One of the big reasons why I like the Raiders to at least keep this one close enough to cover, is the Browns have not been good defensively. Which is a surprise, considering most thought that would be their strength this season. Cleveland comes in ranked 17th against the pass (241.5 ypg) and are dead last against the run (155.5 ypg). Even though Oakland is dead last in rushing (69.3 ypg), there’s reason to be optimistic that they will have some success on the ground against Cleveland. The Browns gave up 185 yards and 2 scores to Jacksonville last week, who even after that performance comes into this week ranked 30th in the league in rushing at 86.0 ypg.
I also have some major concerns with the Cleveland offense, which looked lost in their first game without starting center Alex Mack. Brian Hoyer completed just 16 of 41 attempts for 215 yards and was sacked 3 times, while the Browns rushing attack accounted for just 69 yards on 30 attempts (2.3 yards/carry). Oakland isn’t a defensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, but neither is Jacksonville. If the offense struggles like it did against the Jaguars, forget the cover, the Raiders could be looking at their first win of the season.
There’s a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Browns. Home favorites who are allowing 130+ rushing yards/game after a contest where they were outrushed by 75 or more yards are just 89-144 ATS since 1983. That's a 72% system in favor of the Raiders.
John Ryan
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Minnesota Vikings +120
The simulator shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game. Given the dog projections I like making this a combination wager comprised of an 8* play using the line and a 2* play on the money line. Both teams are trying to find a way to win with two young inexperienced QB under the helm. The Bucs Glennon has been impressive over his last three games throwing for 865 yards and 6 TD. Yet, he has truly struggled under pressure completing just over 50% of those pass attempts. Minnesota can bring heat and force him into mistakes. Look for Anthony Barr to be a major factor to that end. He has notched two sacks, 2 QB hits, and 6 QB hurries and has gotten better with each game. Further, Glennon will have to note where Harrison Smith is located on the field. The Vikings DB has three interceptions and allowed just 51% of passes thrown in his direction to be completed. I obviously like the matchup here with the Vikings defense dictating the Bucs offensive game flow. The Vikings are arguably the worst offense in the league, but they will be enjoying significant in starting field position led by the defense. I also see the makeshift ground attack having just enough success to allow Bridgewater to use play action to his advantage. The following game situations match the SIM projections. TB is just 0-6 ATS the past three seasons when they gain 4.0 to 4.5 yards-per-rush; 2-8 ATS when they gain between 75 and 100 rushing yards; 0-6 ATS when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards.
Tony Karpinski
Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
Buffalo has some issues with their 239 YD RB, Fred Jackson, who could miss up to a month after his groin injury, then CJ Spiller goes down also. But, beware, Anthony Dixon, the 240 lb thumper is here. A definite change-of-pace RB who punishes front lines. They also sport a great run defense, with Marcell Dareus and Mario Williams solidifying the front unit. NY Jets have been in a heap of trouble. Losers of 6 in a row, and begging for help. The recent acquisition of Percy Harvin and getting him into the game will be tricky. There are definitely concerns for the Jets on offense. Geno Smith's future is likely in the balance this season, if he doesn't make something happen. This is just a tough team to do it against. Kyle Orton has always been slightly disrespected, even though he has been a solid QB in his career, Orton will do it again NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home and the Bills upfront will be too tough and put a ton of pressure on Geno Smith!
Doug Upstone
Dolphins vs. Jaguars
Play: Under 42
Normally, I would recommend teams like Jacksonville as on Over play after going UNDER the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. But my Super Systems are are pointing a different direction and are 14-4 since Week 2, thus expect the Jaguars on Sunday to be an UNDER play of 42.
Raiderman
KC Royals
Last night, the Giants bounced back and tied the series with an 11-4 win over the Royals. The most impressive part of this win was the way the Giants came back from a 4-1 deficit to get it done. Today, Madison Bumgarner goes for the Giants and he has easily been the most dominant pitcher this post season. The Royals counter with their ace, James Shields, who has been anything but "Big Game James" this post season. With momentum having swung to SF, and with a pitching mismatch, this is an easy call to make on San Francisco...
Let's look a little deeper here. Yes, Bumgarner has had a very good season (18-10, 2.98 ERA) and if the Giants win the Series, he is easily the MVP (he might still be the MVP even if the Giants lose). He has been dominating this post season. But I like look at the home/road split here. Bumgarner at home this season was 7-6 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Overall, average at best at home. During the post season, he is 0-1, with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Tonight he goes against James Shields who was lit up in Game 1. Do I think Shields bounces back? Yes, I do. By his standards, Game 1 was a complete embarrassment and I do expect a bounce back. The last two times that Shields gave up 5 runs or more in a start (which goes back to the first part of July), he bounced back to pitch a combined 14 innings, surrendering just 8 hits and 1 run in those 14 innings. His home road split this season is very favorable for tonight - he is 10-2 on the road this season with a 2.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
I do expect a low scoring game and so do the sportsbooks. The total is at 6. I do think that 3 runs will win this game, but I will pass on this total. I see KC returning to form tonight, getting a solid 6 innings (at least) from Shields, then letting the bullpen take over. KC scratches out a tough win tonight, then goes back to KC to finish out this series.