Harry Bondi
Philadelphia / Arizona Over 48
Points will be plentiful in the desert this afternoon as Philadelphia and their prolific offense, which is averaging 31 points per game squares off with the underrated Arizona offense which is averaging 26 points on it's own. Even if both of these teams play to their offensive averages , we have a 57 point game that is comfortably over the total of 48.
Andy Iskoe
Dolphins / Jaguars Under 42.5
Jacksonville got its first win last week, scoring a pair of late touchdowns to extend its narrow 10-6 lead in a 24-6 home win over Cleveland. Miami was very impressive in its 27-14 win at Chicago. The Dolphins have the better statistical profile across the board. Yet the Jags are showing solid improvement, especially on defense. After allowing at least 33 points in each of their first four games, the Jags have allowed 17, 16 and 6 points in the last three.
Nelly
Minnesota Vikings + over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a great debut, Teddy Bridgewater has looked like a rookie in recent games. The Vikings are a respectable defensive team and the offense still has some potential with matchups against elite defensive teams the last two weeks skewing the recent figures. Tampa Bay has had two weeks to prepare for this game but the Buccaneers are just 1-5 with the worst point-differential in the NFC. Tampa Bay has been an awful ATS performer at home the last six-plus seasons while going 0-3 S/U this season and 18-32 ATS since 2008. The Buccaneers have been out-gained in all six games this season and Tampa Bay is allowing 6.2 yards per play while surrendering over 71 percent passing from opposing quarterbacks. The Vikings only allow 219 passing yards per game as this is a capable secondary and this is a Tampa Bay offense rushing for less than 90 yards per game. Minnesota deserved to win last week against a very good Buffalo defense and outside of the short week game with Christian Ponder starting at quarterback, the Vikings have played well on the road this season. Tampa Bay's only win this season came in a miraculous comeback as the Buccaneers are now laying points against a hungry young Vikings team with superior talent.
John Fisher
Packers / Saints Over 55
Saints will be fighting for,their lives and at Home will give the Hot Packers everything they have to salvage the season. Numbers and angles won't mean much when you have a desperate Home team with a loud crowd. This are TWO ELITE QBs versus average defenses especially the Saints who can't seem to stop anyone. 37-30 type score won't be hard to imagine.
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Carolina Panthers over the Seattle Seahawks, as I think the struggle is real for the defending Super Bowl champs, who lost last week and now have to travel cross country to Tobacco Road to face the NFC South's top team.
I'm not sure what is going on with the Legion of Boom, but I'm not questioning it either. All I know is it doesn't appear that any team is scared of the Seahawks, who are tied for 27th in the NFL with just seven sacks through six games. Oh, and they're in third place in the NFC West, just a game ahead of the Rams, who beat Seattle last week.
Today will be the third straight year the Panthers have hosted the Seahawks, who won the previous two meetings. The third time could be the charm for Carolina, which is catching Seattle at the right time.
I mean, where is Seattle's morale right now, honestly?
The defending champs traveled cross-country to defeat the Redskins, then lost at home to the Cowboys before going halfway across the country to lose to the Rams. Now they come to the south to play the Panthers.
I'm tired just talking about it.
Carolina is off a loss and a tie in two straight road games. Its last home game was a 31-24 win over Chicago. The Panthers are 2-1 at home this season, and are in a good spot to score a monumental win at the midway point.
Take the points here.
1♦ CAROLINA
Craig Davis
It's kind of funny how people view things. The Jags played their best game of the year last week in a 24-6 home win over the Browns, and now all of a sudden the public is pounding them as home dogs. Big mistake.
Did the public forget about Miami's 27-14 win over the Bears last week? Did they forget how good Ryan Tannehill has looked lately? Did they forget that his 'coming out party' was against this Jags team two years ago?
The Dolphins also possess the league's 4th ranked defense (which recorded three turnovers last week vs. Jay Cutler and the Bears) and will be facing an inexperienced Jags offense that features a former QB as their starting RB (Denard Robinson).
Folks, Miami might not be a Super Bowl contender this year, but they're better than a lot of people are giving them credit for and with Lamar Miller coming into his own and Mike Wallace getting more comfortable with Tannehill, I think the Dolphins can name their score.
Take Miami as your free play of the day.
4♦ MIAMI
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Bears-Patriots contest.
After going Over the total in 4 straight games, things have gotten a little astray offensively for Chicago, as they were held to only 14 points in their home loss last weekend to Miami, as the Bears have hit New England with Unders in their last pair of games.
Expect things to get cranking again today against a New England defense that has been pretty permissive this season.The Pats have played 4 in a row Over the total, and 5 of New England's last 6 October games contested.
The outburst by Brandon Marshall pays dividends this afternoon, as Chicago's offense wakes up and definitely posts more than 2 TD's in this contest.
Bears-Patriots Over the total for Sunday.
2♦ CHICAGO-NEW ENGLAND OVER
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Titans plus the points today against the sketchy Texans.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Titans - Motivation. Tennessee has no distractions right now, and realistically has plenty to play for with bye week on deck. With all the focus on this AFC South clash, the Titans know they can move closer to the first-place Colts with a win.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Texans - Short Week. Houston arrives off a short week, and might be off-guard after getting beat down by the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday. The way the Texans blew that game in the second quarter was sickening, and they'll be hungover from it.
In conclusion, why TENNESSEE is my SMART PLAY in this game - I really don't care much that rookie Zach Mettenberger is making his first career start today, as he'll be the third quarterback to start this season for Tennessee. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has faith in the rookie to spark things, I have faith he can too.
And it's not like this is his debut, as the sixth-round draft pick out of LSU came off the bench late in the team's 41-17 setback in Indianapolis, where he was 2 of 5 for 17 yards with an interception. The good news for the 6-foot-5, 224-pounder, he led the NFL with 659 yards passing in the preseason, and has been practicing with the starters the past two weeks.
5♦ TENNESSEE
Chris Jordan
I don't know why I have a feeling the Buccaneers (1-5) can pull this off, but something tells me this old school division rivlary is a win Tampa Bay can pull off. While the Bucs are in the NFC South, and Minnesota (2-5) resides in the NFC North nowadays, there is also the reconnection of head coaches, as old friends Lovie Smith and Leslie Frazier get together for this battle.
As crazy as this may sound, the Bucs have a chance to creep into the NFC South race, for as bad as their division mates have been playing just as bad. Carolina hosts Seattle today, the Saints have the Packers and Atlanta is across the pond for a date with the Lions.
In reality, the NFC South team with the best shot at winning is the Buccaneers. If that were to happen, this is how the standings would look:
Carolina (3-4-1)
New Orleans (2-5)
Tampa Bay (2-5)
Atlanta (2-6)
I suspect if there is one coach who will know how to coach against Frazier and the Vikings, it's Smith, and he'll have his defense tuned up for Minnesota's offense, which has vividly struggled against the suspended Adrian Peterson. It ranks 29th in yards per game at 309.1.
The Vikings are in on ATS losing streaks of 1-8 in the month of October and 0-4 off a bye week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has covered six of its last eight after a bye week. Lay the home chalk, and if it bumps to -3, buy the half point back down.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
Brad Wilton
True, Tampa's defense has been shredded more than a few times this year; 56 allowed at Atlanta, 37 points allowed at New Orleans, and of course the video game-like first half that Joe Flacco and the Ravens posted on them in their 48-17 win the last time Tampa played in front of the Pirate Ship in the end zone.
That could very well change after their bye week, as I am sure defensive-minded Lovie Smith showed no love to hist troops during Tampa Bay's week off. It also helps that rookie Teddy Bridgewater and his limited offensive cast pay a visit on one of Minny's old division rivals.
The Vikings could must only 16 points last week in their last second loss at Buffalo, as they have now been held to 16 points or less in 5 of their 7 games this year.
Bridgewater will be just fine, but right now he will have to take his lumps, as will Minnesota backers.
Vikes-Bucs Low on Sunday.
2♦ MINNESOTA-TAMPA BAY UNDER
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Jacksonville Under 42.5: The Jacksonville offense has been non-existent all year long, but their defense has been on fire of late, allowing just 13 ppg in their last 3 games. Last week the Jacksonville defense held a hot Cleveland offense to just 6 points in the game. On offense the Jags have been held to 19 points or less in 9 of their last 10 games, dating back to the preseason. This is not a good offense at all. They did score 24 points last week, but that was vs a bad Cleveland defense and now they will take on a Miami defense that ranks 4th in yards allowed and 3rd vs the pass. On offense the Fish are a rather average team, but they are 4th in rushing and that should mean plenty of clock moving plays. Let’s also note that Miami has averaged just 18.5 ppg on the road. The last 5 meetings between these teams has seen no more than 34 points scored and this one may just be that low scoring as well.
Chicago/ New England Over 51: The Chicago Bears are a mess between the ears right now, but getting out on the road and away from the pressures of home should help them here, as they will look to just play football and let it all hang out. The Bears do have a solid offense, especially on the road, where they have averaged 26.5 ppg, scoring 24 or more in all 4 of their road games so far. Also helping the Bears offense is the fact that Jerrod Mayo and Chandler Jones will be both out for the Patriots in this one and they did struggle last week with just Mayo missing vs a much weaker Jets offense. The Pats offense has been humming of late, averaging 408 ypg and 35.7 ppg in their last 3 games, while Chicago comes in having allowed 27.3 ppg in their last 4 games. The over is 5-1 in the Bears last 6 road games and 15-3 in the Pats last 18 home games vs a team with a losing record. This game should be a shootout.
Seattle -5.5 over CAROLINA: In the College Ranks Alabama was questioned by many about if their time is done, especially after they just beat Arkansas by only 1 point. Well they went out and crushed Texas A&M the next week by a 59-0 score. In the NFL the Packers were angry over their start and Aaron Rodgers told them to relax and they have now won 4 in a row and crushed both Chicago and Minnesota to start the 4 game win streak. Next the Pats fans were upset over their start and they went out and pounded the Bengals 43-17, followed by a 37-22 win at Buffalo. Ya know where I'm going with this? Yes I feel the Seattle Seahawks will rise up and take care of business here. they are still one of the 4 best team in the league and getting away from the pressures of home they will beat up on a Carolina Panthers team that has been disappointing this year and has been hit hard by injuries. The Panther defense has been awful of late, allowing 37.3 ppg and the Seahawks will look to take advantage of that. The Seahawks are 12-4 ARS in their last 16 on the road and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in this series. Seattle should roll here.
BEST OF THE REST
Philadelphia +1.5 Over ARIZONA: The money is coming in on the Eagles here and I will follow it. Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league right now and are playing with a ton of confidence, especially after blanking the Giants 27-0 in their last game. The Cardinals are also playing with confidence right now as they lead the NFC West with a 5-1 record and they do have a solid defense, but in their only game vs a high powered offense (Denver) they did allow 41 points. I do not think the Cardinals will come up with enough points to win this one. I look for the Eagles to steal one out west.
ASA
Baltimore / Cincinnati Over 44.5
Baltimore ranks 8th in yards per game and 6th in points per game. QB Joe Flacco has made it a habit of finding WR’s Torrey Smith & Steve Smith for big gains the last few weeks (five 20+ yard TD’s over the last four games). They’ll have more opportunities for big gainers against this Cincy defense that has allowed 43, 37, and 27 points over its last three games. Cincinnati is off of its worst offensive performance of the season in a 0-27 loss at Indianapolis. The Bengals managed just 135 total yards and 8 first downs and had 20 fewer minutes TOP. There’s a good chance that Cincy will get big-play WR AJ Green back in the lineup after the star WR missed the last two weeks with an injury. Even without their difference-making WR, we expect the Bengals to regroup and play much, much better offensively than they did last week. These two met in week one as the Bengals won at home, 23-16. There were two 77+ yard TD’s in that game, one from each side, and we expect a few more fireworks in this matchup and for it to easily exceed 47 points. Take the OVER.
Wunderdog
Colorado @ Winnipeg
Pick: Winnipeg +105
Winnipeg has been playing better since that awful start, 1-1 the last two games, beating Carolina and a 4-2 loss to Tampa Bay. Their defense is good, 16th in goals allowed and fourth in killing penalties. Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler scored versus the Lightning, and both have fared well against the Avalanche. The former has recorded five goals and seven assists in his last 10 meetings, while the latter scored the overtime goals to lift Winnipeg to a 2-1 triumph on Dec. 29th and a 5-4 win on March 19. The Jets are 4-1 against a team with a winning percentage below .400, and into town comes a struggling Colorado team, 1-3-1 away from home. Colorado is on a 2-8 run overall, 1-9 on the road. The offense is bad (22nd in goals) and the defense has been worse (23rd in goals allowed).
OC Dooley
Texans -3.5
It was week-seventeen of last year when quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick led Tennessee to a victory and now he is a starter in the uniform of the enemy. Fitzpatrick has already been successful once against one of his former teams (Buffalo) and has another opportunity to thrive this afternoon against a struggling foe who is averaging a paltry 17 points per game. Since they are struggling to either run or pass the football Tennessee is digging deep giving ROOKIE quarterback Zach Mettenberger his initial start so there is a perceived mismatch at the most important spot on the field. The entire nation got to see Houston back on Monday inexplicably give up 3 touchdowns in the final 1:27 of the opening half on the highway in a game they could have won on the scoreboard and this afternoon even in a limited role the defense gets a big boost as #1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney IS healthy enough to make his first appearance since sustaining an injury back on opening week. That enhances a Texans stop-unit that despite having the league’s best defensive player J.J. Watt is ranked 26th in yards allowed. In the history of the franchise after allowing 400+ combined yards in each of a three-game span Houston has gone an excellent 15-5 ATS in the ensuing contest