Steve Merril
NY Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -5½
The Jets have alternated wins and losses in every game so far this season. New York's four wins have come by 1, 7, 2, and 3 points while two of their three losses have come by 13 points or more. They’ve only beaten one winning team (Patriots last week) and the combined record of the teams they beat in their other three games is just 5-15. In fact, the Jets have played just one winning team all season (Patriots); they’ve actually faced them twice. New York has strong seasonal defensive numbers, but those numbers have come against a very weak slate of opposing offenses. The Jets are holding opponents to 4.6 yards per play (#3 in the NFL) and 5.9 yards per pass attempt (#4 in the NFL). But as a collective group, their opponents only rank #22 in the league in those categories. The Jets’ defense will be facing a strong Cincinnati offense that is averaging 5.5 yards per play (#12) and 7.4 yards per pass attempt (#9). So the numbers clearly show that New York’s defense is taking a major step-up in class in this game against the Bengals.
Cincinnati’s defense has been solid this season. The Bengals are allowing just 19.3 points per game while holding opponents to only 334.3 yards of total offense per game. Cincinnati is giving up 5.0 yards per play (#7) and 6.1 yards per pass attempt (#6). Those numbers are strong, and the Jets’ offense will have trouble moving the ball consistently in this game. Cincinnati will be playing their only home game in a 5-game stretch so we expect a peak performance in front of the home fans. The Bengals look to be hitting their stride right now, and the Jets are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time off their big home underdog win last week. We’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.
Jimmy Boyd
Vikings/Packers Under 47½
The total on this game is set far too high. While the Packers have certainly done a decent amount of scoring this season, the Vikings have not. They average just 18.5 points per game on the season. Once Green Bay builds a comfortable lead in the second half they will start running the ball on clock-killing drives. The Vikings don’t have the offensive talent to stage a comeback, especially against a Packers defense that has held opponents to 21.2 points per game on 3.4 rushing yards per carry and a 60.5% pass completion percentage.
The only total at 47 points or more for the Vikings was in last week’s game against the New York Giants. They put up just 7 points while allowing 23 points to the Giants staying well under that posted total. The Packers have had gone under the total in each of their last three games as the defense improves with each passing week. If this game ends up being close it will be because the Vikings play a great game defensively. If it is a blowout, it will most likely be because of the Vikings inability to score points. Either way, this game stays under the total.
Bill Biles
Redskins/Broncos Over 57½
Both these teams can score on every drive, and their defenses are not very good. This game will be a shout out. Look for a final of 41-28 or something close to that. Broncos over has been 7-0 this year
Red Dog Sports
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: San Francisco 49ers -14
Take San Francisco is this game that is set for Wembley Stadium in London. The 49ers need to stay with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West so they should be focused. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in its last four and scored 31, 32, 34 and 35 points. Frank Gore has run well as he has over 400 yards in those four games and QB Colin Kaepernick has 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception in that span. Jax is 0-7 this year and looked poor last week. Chad Henne had 318 yards passing but stalled in the red zone and the Jaguars were unable to run the ball well as they had just 78 yards on the ground.
Chip Chirimbes
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Play: Miami Dolphins +7
There is something amiss in New England and that's not to say things are so good in Miami right now. The Dolphins have dropped three straight and combined with their bye week haven't been to the winners circle in five weeks. Both are off conference upset losses but I see Miami keeping this one close.
Jeff Alexander
Jacksonville Jaguars +16.5
History is overwhelmingly in Jacksonville's favor Sunday. Underdogs of 10.5 or more points that have lost 7 or more in a row are 26-6 ATS the last 30 years when they're matched up against an opponent that is coming off 1 or more consecutive wins. This system tightens up to 8-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Additionally, playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the spread in 2 or more consecutive games if they have a winning percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less has resulted in a 29-8 ATS record the last 30 years. This system also tightens up to 8-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll play by the numbers and take the points.
Dave Price
Pittsburgh Steelers -2
The Steelers have rebounded from an 0-4 start with wins in their last two games, and I expect them to keep right on rolling Sunday. The Raiders have had a bye week to prepare for this contest, but they have not been a strong post-bye investment. In fact, they are 0-10 (1-9 ATS) in their last 10 games the week after a bye, losing these contests by 13.2 points on average. While one could make an argument that this is a sandwich game for Pittsburgh following a big division win over Baltimore and with New England on deck, I say not a chance. The Steelers believe they can still get back in the AFC playoff picture, and they know there's no margin for error if they're going to pull it off. Plus, you know they haven't forgotten about what transpired last year in Oakland. Pittsburgh blew a 10-point four-quarter lead and lost 34-31. That defeat will serve as a huge motivator Sunday. The Raiders are on a 36-67 ATS slide in games when the line is +3 to -3. They are also on a 15-30 ATS skid as a home underdog of 7 points or less. You also want to fade home teams when the line is +3 to -3 if they scored 14 points or less in their last game and average just 14.5-18 points per game on the season when they are matched up against a team that allows only 18-23 points per game. Doing so has produced a 22-4 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.
Joseph D'Amico
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -2
Pittsburgh has come into form following their bye week, going 2-0 SU and ATS as they beat New York and Baltimore while holding them to just 11 PPG. RB, Le'Veon Bell is establishing the ground game while receivers, Brown, Sanders, Cotchery, and Miller are giving defenses nightmares. Ben Roethlisberger is getting time in the pocket as the OL has improved. The Steelers "D" is healthy as they rank 4th against the pass and 6th overall in Yards Allowed. They face an Oakland team that is just plain old bad, ranking 32nd in passing and averaging a dismal 17.5 PPG. The rushing game is good but their OL has been hurt by injuries which will allow the Pittsburgh stop unit to key on the run. Lest not forget that Troy Polamalu missed last year's game and wants to make a statement here. The Raiders are a mess. This is the ideal solution for the Steelers to step up, flex their muscles, gain some confidence, and make a move in their Division. The Raiders are 1-9 ATS their L10 games played following a bye week while the Steelers are 4-0 ATS their L4 games played in the month of October. Take Pittsburgh.
Alex Smart
Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3
I am betting we see a quarterback duel this week as QB Tony Romo of Dallas and Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford go head to head. Both have a talented receiving corps. The difference maker will come down to mistakes. It must be noted that Motowns receivers are second worst in the NFL with a 6.9 percent drop rate.
Larry Ness
Redskins at Broncos
Pick: Over
Peyton’s incredibly hot start had tongues wagging about 2013 being a record-setting season for the future Hall-of-Famer and just maybe, a 16-0 year for the Broncos. While Peyton may yet break some records (he’s completing 71.6% for an average of 366.4 YPG with 25 TDs, just three INTs and a QB rating of 123.3), the possibility of Denver going 16-0 came to an end last Sunday night in Peyton’s homecoming. Manning's return to Indianapolis resulted in a 39-33 loss to his former team, snapping a franchise-record 17 consecutive regular-season wins for Denver.
Peyton was 29 of 49 for 386 yards with three TD passes and just one INT. However, he was sacked four times and hit 10 times. By game’s end, Peyton had had enough. Now, he and the Denver Broncos will try to bounce back and spoil coach Mike Shanahan's return to Denver, as the Broncos seek their 11th straight regular-season home victory Sunday against the Washington Redskins. "I am looking forward to going back to Denver," said Shanahan, who also served as a Broncos offensive assistant for seven years over two different stints before becoming head coach.
Shanahan coached Denver for 14 seasons, amassing a 138-86 regular-season record and leading the franchise to its only two Super Bowl championships. However, he posted a 1-4 playoff record in 10 seasons following back-to-back titles. Shanahan’s first two season in Washington resulted in a combined 11-21 record but led by rookies RG III and Alfred Morris, the Redskins finished 10-6 last year, winning the NFC East title for the first time since 1999. The Redskins lost 24-14 in the Wild Card round to the Seahawks.
Robert Griffin III originally injured his knee on Dec 9 but it buckled underneath him during the fourth quarter against the Seahawks. It was later determined that Griffin had sustained a tear of his LCL and a damaged ACL. He underwent reconstructive surgery of his knee for an LCL tear and damaged ACL but as promised, was back for Week 1 of the 2013. However, Griffin was not “all the way back,” as of Week 1. That said, Griffin is clearly getting better week by week. He’s run 20 times the last two games, gaining 161 yards (8.1 YPC).
The Redskins are just 2-4 but in the NFC East circa 2013, they are just 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Cowboys (4-3). Washington’s coming off its best game of 2013 last Sunday, a 45-41 home win over the Bears in which the Redskins gained 499 yards, 209 on the ground and 290 through the air. That kind of balance should give Denver’s defense fits.
One has to at least slightly pause in evaluating just how good the 2013 Broncos are. Five of the team’s six wins have come over Baltimore, the NY Giants, Oakland, Philadelphia and Jacksonville. That group owns a combined record of 9-25 (.265). Against its two toughest opponents, Dallas and Indy, the Denver defense has allowed 48 and 39 points, respectively.
The victory against the Bears marked Washington's second straight game with 200-plus rushing yards, including a season-high 84 on 11 carries by Robert Griffin III as well as 95 and 41 from Alfred Morris and Roy Helu Jr., respectively. Griffin recorded a season-high 105.2 passer rating while benefiting from the emergence of tight end Jordan Reed, finding the rookie nine times for 134 yards and a score. Denver own the league’s worst pass defense 339.1 YPG), it has also been susceptible to opposing tight ends, allowing six or more catches and 74-plus yards to the position three times.
That said, Denver is on a record-setting pace with 298 points scored (42.6 per), the most in history through the first seven games of a season. Denver's margin of victory in its four home games in 2013 has been 21.5 points, so I don’t want to try and fade them here. However, I sure don’t think Denver will have much luck stopping RG III and Co, so I’ll go over.
AC Dinero
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: New York Giants +6
The Giants are off to a terrible start this season, picked by many to win the NFC East, including yours truly. They have an opportunity to even the score with their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants got their 1st win last week, getting the o'fer monkey off their back. The Eagles are coming off a division home loss to Dallas last week, but the get QB Vick back. The Philly offense moves the ball well, particularly in the running game. The rush defense has been pretty good to. But they give up way too many plays in the passing game (over 7.0 ypa), and have trouble getting off the field on 3rd down, giving up 41%. The Giant defense hasn't been bad, except for getting off the field on 3rd down. Giving up 47% is how you get to be 1-6 instead of 4-3. Turning the ball over doesn't help either. The talent is there to be better. When NY gets into the red zone, they convert. The Giants have played well over the years in Philly, and I expect this Sunday to be no different.
RJ Robbins
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Cleveland Browns +9.5
Kansas City is 7-0. We all see it but don't really believe it. This week they face a team in Cleveland who is starting their 3rd QB Jason Campbell. Cleveland has a Top 10 defense and a bottom 10 offense. Well so do the Chiefs. Look for KC to win the game however we will take the Browns plus the points!
Bryan Power
Buffalo vs. New Orleans
Pick: Buffalo
Though I typically don't like to go against the Saints in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, this week provides one such opportunity with the undervalued Bills.....
Over the last three seasons, New Orleans is 16-4 ATS at home, 15-3 when favored. Most of those losses occurred last season when they didn't have Sean Payton on the sidelines. In fact, all of them did as they were 9-0 ATS on this field in 2011 (including playoffs) & off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start this season, beating Atlanta, Arizona and Miami by an average of 17 PPG.
Now that I've made a decent case for the Saints (whoops!), let me explain why the Bills are worth a look here. They enter this game at 5-2 ATS and last week they didn't even end up needing the points, winning outright in Miami, despite the fact the Dolphins were off a bye. New Orleans is off a bye this week, a role they are just 5-3 straight up in under Payton.
More importantly, the Saints may be without their top offensive weapon, TE Jimmy Graham. Even if he does play, you might be surprised to learn that no team in the league does a better job at defending tight ends than does Buffalo. Opposing teams are averaging 5.2 yards per attempt to the TE against the Bills (league average is 7.6 YPA).
I'm actually pretty surprised that this number has come down (a slight cause for concern) at many shops, but by kickoff I'd expect it to be bet back up as the public will see New Orleans at home, off a loss and a bye, and think they have no shot at losing. While I see the Saints winning this game SU, I don't see them covering.
Teddy Covers
Dallas vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
This is a classic ‘spot’ play in the NFL. We’ve got the Cowboys fat and happy off back-2-back divisional wins and covers against the Redskins and Eagles. And we’ve got the Lions hungry and ready coming off a frustrating home loss on a last minute field goal following a shanked punt last week.
Put those two factors together with this very reasonable -3 pointspread and it’s not hard to make a case for the home favorite.
Monte Kiffin’s defense has struggled against good passing teams all year long. With cluster injuries on the front seven, particularly at linebacker; facing a Lions balanced Lions attack that has averaged more than 32 points per game at Ford Field this year will be a tough task. Let’s not forget the Cowboys miserable ATS track record coming off a win in the Jason Garrett era, just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 tries in this role.
Detroit’s numerous special teams miscues last week, including a ten point swing on a blocked field goal that led to a Bengals TD haven’t been a consistent problem for them – I’m not expecting a repeat. And I believe veteran center Dominic Raiola’s quote: “We will bounce back. I know we will bounce back. We have a bunch of fighters in here. Look who is in this room, look at our quarterback. We have the best wide receiver in the world. We have a bunch of fighters in here.” Take the Lions.
NFL Betting Picks
New York Jets +7 -120
The Jets are getting little respect here heading to Cincinnati with a 4-3 record, but that is possibly because they are just 1-2 on the road and the Bengals who are 5-2 overall are 3-0 at home. New York is coming off a win vs New England, and they've alternated wins and losses since opening up the year with a victory against Tampa Bay. They are 5-2 against the spread this year, including 2-1 ATS on the road with a 3 point loss in New England and a road victory against Atlanta as 10 point underdogs. The Bengals have won three straight, including a last second win in Detroit last week. Of their 5 wins only one was by more than 7 points, and that was a 10 point victory against a struggling Pittsburgh team in Week 2. The Jets have been impressive on defense, ranking 4th in the NFL giving up just 302 yards per game although 23.1 papg. Offensively the Jets rank just behind the Bengals at 15th in the league, and are scoring 19.1 ppg. Jets Rookie QB Geno Smith seems to be getting better with each start, as he's currently sitting with a 74.3 QB Rating. Getting 7 points with one of the league's best defenses and a team that has proved they can play well on the road is good for 2 units for me.