Bruce Marshall
Dallas vs. Detroit
Pick: Over
It has helped the Dallas “D” to face a gimpy-legged RG III and a green Matt Barkley the past two weeks, so Monte Kiffin will have to reach deeper into his defensive bag of tricks to cope with Matthew Stafford, Megatron and other imposing Detroit weaponry. But unless Cowboys’ sack demon DE DeMarcus Ware (thigh bruise, missed last week at Philly) returns to active duty, Kiffin might have trouble harassing Stafford as did Cincy’s amped-up pass rush last week. Meanwhile, Baylor rookie WR Terrance Williams making it harder for Dallas foes to gang up on Dez Bryant. Lions “over” 8-3 mark last 11 as host looks a good bet to continue.
Kyle Hunter
Steelers vs. Raiders
Play: Under 40½
The Oakland Raiders are more competitive than most people expected this year. Pittsburgh lost their first two games of the season, but the Steelers defense has lead them to consecutive wins over the Jets and Ravens over the past 2 weeks. Oakland's offense is reliant on Terrelle Pryor and the running game. The Steelers still have a much better than average defensive unit. Look for them to make life difficult for Pryor in this one. Pittsburgh offense hasn't been any good all year, and I see no reason to believe they will be better here. Take the under.
Tony Karpinski
Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3
Ever since the Broncos game the Dallas defense has really stepped it up. Dez Bryant is a matchup nightmare for DBs, and will be again here on Sunday. The Cowboys have a very explosive offense and Tony Romo is having a great year. They are a first-rate team. In the end Dallas wins a close one battle pulling away in the 2nd half . Dallas is 6-1 ATS on the season and I like them as another underdog on Sunday afternoon plus the points.
Red Dog Sports
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: San Francisco 49ers -14
Take San Francisco is this game that is set for Wembley Stadium in London. The 49ers need to stay with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West so they should be focused. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in its last four and scored 31, 32, 34 and 35 points. Frank Gore has run well as he has over 400 yards in those four games and QB Colin Kaepernick has 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception in that span. Jax is 0-7 this year and looked poor last week. Chad Henne had 318 yards passing but stalled in the red zone and the Jaguars were unable to run the ball well as they had just 78 yards on the ground.
Rob Vinciletti
Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions -144
The Lions will look to bounce back off a tough home loss here to the Bengals last week. The Lions are 7-1 to the spread vs NFC East teams. Dallas has failed to cover in 7 of 8 when the total is more than 47 and is 1-7 straight up and ats vs NFC North teams. The Cowboys are also in a play against system that pertains to going against teams when the line is +3 to -3 and they allowed less than 7 points in their last game and are taking on a team that lost a close game by 1-3 points. These teams like Dallas are just 7-30 to the spread. In general road teams in non division games are mediocre when coming off a divisional road win. Dallas shut down the Eagles last week but his will be a tougher task against a hungry Lions team. Dallas has failed to cover 3 of the last 4 in the series. In games from October on out Detroit is 17-3 ats off a loss vs an opponent off a win and cover. With Dallas 1-10 ats after allowing 10 or less,we will side with The Lions.
Jack Jones
New Orleans Saints -10.5
The New Orleans Saints will be motivated to bounce back from their first loss of the season. They fell in the closing seconds at New England last time out on October 13 as they allowed the Patriots to drive the length of the field with no timeouts to get the game-winning score with only a few ticks left on the clock. New Orleans has had two full weeks to steam over that defeat after having a bye in Week 7. Now, look for the Saints to come back more determined than ever to take out their frustration on the Buffalo Bills this week.
New Orleans is 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points per game at home this year in the process. On the season, it is scoring 26.8 points and averaging 397.7 yards per game to rank 6th in total offense. However, it’s the improvement from the defense that has made all the difference for the Saints. They rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.2 points per game, and 11th in total defense at 338.0 yards per game.
Buffalo ranks just 18th in the league in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. It is struggling to put up points now that it is down to its third-string quarterback. The stop unit hasn’t stopped anybody, giving up 25.4 points and 380.4 yards per game to rank 24th in total defense. Drew Brees and company should have their way with this soft Bills' defense. Brees is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,958 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.
The Saints are 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in their last three meetings with Buffalo. New Orleans is 13-2 against the spread in its last 15 games versus poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game. Buffalo is 0-6 against the number off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.
New Orleans is 16-4 against the spread in its last 20 home games, and 15-3 against the number in its last 18 games as a home favorite. The Saints are a perfect 5-0 against the number in their last five games following a bye week. Buffalo is 6-19-1 against the spread in its last 26 games following a win. Bet the Saints Sunday.
Alex Smart
Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3
I am betting we see a quarterback duel this week as QB Tony Romo of Dallas and Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford go head to head. Both have a talented receiving corps. The difference maker will come down to mistakes. It must be noted that Motowns receivers are second worst in the NFL with a 6.9 percent drop rate.
Andy Iskoe
Denver -11
The steady improvement of Redskins QB RG III in recent weeks paid off with a wild 45-41 last minute home win over Chicago. Clearly, the defense remains a concern and that does not bode well heading to Denver. The Broncos are averaging 42.6 points per game and are off of Sunday night's loss at Indianapolis in which it appeared the hype and distractions leading up to the game affected the play of Denver QB Manning. With no such distractions here, and Denver now trailing Division rival Kansas City by a game in the AFC West, expect the Broncos to rebound in a big way that will find the Redskins unable to trade points, especially in the second half. The Broncos have been dominant at home all season in the second half of games. And that should continue here.
Carlos Salazar
Redskins vs Broncos
Play: Over 57.5
The Denver Broncos have gone over the number each and every week this season and tonight against the Redskins will be no different. Last week the Redskins gave up 41 to the Bears with a back up quarterback for half the game. Peyton will slice and dice the Washington defense and the Redskins in turn will score at least 30 on their own. This one goes over the total with ease.
Ken Thomson
Washington / Denver Over 58.5
I know it's a so called square play.....I have played all Bronco games over since week one. The Skins finally look like a team that should move the ball on offense now that RG III is playing with confidence. The knee is as good as it will get and he did not play scared last week. If he plays like that today and is aware of Von Miller the Skins should score 27. Denver should be good for 35 plus against a Defense that could not stop the Bears at all last week. I've got the Broncos 41-27
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA +9 over Green Bay
This line is based on last week’s sickening Monday Night game. In the history of Monday Night Football, never has a team looked as bad as the Vikings did and the G-Men didn’t look much better. The Vikings not only looked like they had never played together before but that they all just met in the high school cafeteria. Had this game been played before that one, the Packers would be -4½ here instead of 9. Regardless of the outcome, the Vikings are a must play this week because they hold the most value. Again, this number is grossly inflated based on one butt-ugly football game that the entire wagering population witnessed.
Besides, this is a huge rivalry game that is almost always close and it’s not like Green Bay is peaking. For the Pack, James Jones has been downgraded to doubtful and hasn't been able to practice. Josh Freeman is already ruled out because of a concussion and not merely because he appeared to have never played the position before. The Packers continue to lose players at a historic pace and now Aaron Rodgers has nobody to throw to. We all saw what happened when Tom Brady had nobody to throw to. It’s difficult to sustain drives and it’s difficult to finish them off. This is messy to forecast since the Packers have no players and the Vikings have no idea what to do with the ones they have but one thing we know for sure. The Vikes have to respond to that debacle last week. Freeman’s start brought the entire team down with him and so we’re throwing that game out the window. The Vikings seem to play better when Christian Ponder is behind center even though he throws more ducks than A&E pimps out each week. At least there is a comfort level with Ponder. In all of the years of handicapping NFL Football, we have never seen an overreaction like the one here against the Vikings and that makes them an automatic play.
Cleveland +7½ over KANSAS CITY
Last week we faded the Chiefs at home to Houston and will continue that fade this week because the Chiefs offense is not good enough to be spotting 7½ points to the Browns. There are other factors as well. The Chiefs are going to have to fight the urge to mail this one in after running their record to 7-0 and now at home against what the Chiefs likely perceive as a very bad team. That perception actually wouldn’t be inaccurate but K.C’s 7-0 record once again has them overvalued as the chalk. Other than its win over Jacksonville in the season opener, the Chiefs have not blown away anyone. Their 24-7 win over Oakland in Week 6 was a close game. Their 26-16 win over Philadelphia in Week 2 should have been 46-16 after Philly turned the ball over six times.
Offensively, the Chiefs just get by and rely on their outstanding defense to finish off opponents. That’s not conducive to spotting significant points. The Browns are decent against the pass and the Chiefs are not going to ever press their luck down field. Instead, the Chiefs will utilize Jamaal Charles with a heavy dose of running right, running left and running up the middle. Again, when an offense is incapable of big plays and relies mainly on its rushing game, those 7½ big points is a lot to overcome. And it’s not like the Chiefs are steaming or that they have a score to settle. K.C. is cruising along with a complacent record and games against Cleveland and Buffalo on deck almost assures them of a 9-0 record heading into the bye week.
Browns HC Rob Chudzinski still has not named the starting quarterback this week, always a bad sign when you already had one. Brandon Weeden's getting worse and adding a new penchant for interceptions with three over the last two losses. We will assume that Weeden gets another week but in the end - playing in Kansas City is not going to make anyone look good, much less the quarterback for the Browns. Jason Campbell may be named later but it’s not going to deter us either way. What we have here is a Cleveland team, whose stock is sinking fast and that has lost two in a row by 14 and 18 points respectively to Detroit (Matthew Stafford) and Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers). The Brownies defense will now take a huge step down in class against the Chiefs offense (Alex Smith), setting up this classic buy-low, sell high situation.
Jacksonville +16½ over San Francisco
How bad are the Jaguars? Not only are they 0-7, but their margin of losing has been by 26, 10, 28, 34, 14, 16 and 18 points. They may be the fourth best team in the state of Florida and we’re not taking about pro teams either. This team couldn’t even score a touchdown against Oakland. Jags fans (both of them) are counting down the days until they get the first pick in next year’s draft. At this point, they may as well sign Tim Tebow so they can sell some jerseys to the churchin’ up types. Nobody is betting on the Jagwires and it’s all for good reason.
With that, we’re not going to break down the X’s and O’s here because that would be just plain stupid. We’ll leave that to those network idiots like Dan Marino, Phil Sims, Terry Bradshaw, et all, who are seldom correct and will tell you that San Fran’s defense will stop Jacksonville’s offense. Well, this game is in London, England and for the 49ers, this game is more of a holiday than a football game. San Fran has a bye on deck and its only goal will be to show up, stay healthy and get a win. For Jacksonville, this is their Super Bowl. They have no fans at home and they’re loathed everywhere else. They have been embarrassed week after week. Surely, this group is not interested in going overseas to embarrass themselves again. Though they don’t have the horses, the Jags will bring it all this week in much the manner as they did against Denver as a 27-point pooch. Chad Henne did not score any touchdowns in his last two starts, and yes he threw three interceptions, but at least both games were over 300 passing yards. The beauty of being so bad is that opponents just want to win and then play the prevent defense. The 49ers figure to have that mindset here, which will allow the Jags to stay well within this margin.
Atlanta +121 over ARIZONA
Carson Palmer can’t run. Carson Palmer has no running game. Carson Palmer has thrown 11 picks in the past five weeks and the Cardinals offense is about as one-dimensional as they come. There's no disagreement here - everyone is disappointed with what Carson Palmer has brought to the Cardinals and he’s getting worse. He's only thrown eight touchdowns in seven games and never topped 300 yards since the season opener. Palmer was actually more productive in Oakland working with much less. Larry Fitzgerald playing injured doesn't help but fingers are starting to point to an unimaginative offense ran by first-year OC Harold Goodwin. What’s even more interesting is that the Cardinals are coming off back-to-back losses to division rivals San Fran and Seattle and no team has won this season the week after facing the Seahawks. Arizona doesn’t figure to be the first.
Atlanta is getting very little respect because of its poor 2-6 record, not to mention its winless road record. However, those road losses occurred in New Orleans and Miami and the Falcons were in a position to win them both. The Dirty Birds have been in every game this season with their biggest margin of defeat being seven points. Matt Ryan has thrown two TD’s or more in every game this season and figures to throw for at least two more here. Even without Julio Jones and Roddy White, Ryan went off for 273 yards and three TD’s. Arizona is pure garbage. They have a sick looking offense and a defense that cannot defend against a strong passer. Matt Ryan fits that bill and these hungry Falcons should have little trouble defeating this unbalanced host that has no heartbeat. Wrong side favored.
Tony George
Cleveland / Kansas City Under 39.5
The Kansas City Chiefs stand alone in the NFL as the only unbeaten team remaining, who would have thought back in mid August? Well Tony George did, as it was his top Win / Loss Futures play on the board where he took KC over 6.5 wins to the bank last week as KC got by a pesky Texans team at Arrowhead and won their 7th game. The Browns roll into the loudest stadium in the NFL this Sunday with major Quarterback issues, no running game and no pass game against the NFL’s #1 ranked defense at home. This is the last place Cleveland wants to be this weekend, I assure you. The line is Kansas City by 7 in this one, the same number Kansas City could not cover last week against a Houston team starting a QB off the scout team. Tony George says the value in this game not the point spread but the Totals Play.
Both defenses are solid, Kansas City can flat out get after the QB and lead the NFL in sacks on a record pace right now, and with their secondary limit big plays down the field. Spread attacks and high octane offense like Dallas and Philly were completely rendered useless against this defense that has 4 Prop Bowlers from last year’s 2 win team on it. At day’s end Kansas City’s offense is very suspect and the Browns’ defense is the strength of their team with 3 Top 10 rankings. Points will be a premium, and with every game the noose gets tighter for KC as all eyes are upon this. This is much like last week’s game against Houston, low scoring and tight and while the points are tempting to take, it is the UNDER which is far more tasty here.
Joe Gavazzi
San Francisco -16.5 at Jacksonville
Little changed in the 24-6 Jacksonville home loss to San Diego last week; outrushed 158 to 78 with a negative turnover margin for the contest. The Jags have now lost all 7 games by at least 10 points. They enter today on a run of 2-10 ATS, including 1-6 ATS this year. The fact this game is in London will pique the 49ers interest enough to keep them motivated throughout. Following a pair of lethargic performances early in the year, the Niners have returned to overland dominance. In winning and covering four straight games by a margin of 132-51, they have outrushed opponents by an average margin of 175-82 per game and profited from a +8 net turnover margin. Must not ignore the fact that Niners’ HC Harbaugh is 20-4 ATS vs non-division foes.
Dallas at Detroit -3
Without meaningful, statistical edges for either team, it is tough to elevate this to Top Play status. The situation, however, clearly favors Detroit. Each team enters at 4-3 SU; Dallas is off a Denver shootout followed by divisional wins vs Washington and Philly by a combined 48-19 margin. Detroit looked like their turnaround season was going to continue on this field last week, but a 28-yard punt followed by a 54-yard field goal sent the Lions to a crushing defeat. Far more than last year’s 4-12 SU team, this has been a resilient Lions’ outfit. They stand 2-0 SU ATS following a defeat, with road wins of 27-20 at Washington and 31-17 at Cleveland. That is a good omen, as they suit up on their home field again this week where they are 9-4 ATS vs non-division opponents. Dallas RB Murray (knee) and DE Ware (quad) remain questionable for this contest at this writing.
NFL UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE DAY
New York Giants at Philadelphia -5.5
Philly was the league’s biggest underperformer last week, with first QB Foles and then QB Barkeley (3 INTs) at the controls. The end result was a 17-3 home field loss to Dallas. Not all that easy to expect a bounce-back for a Philly team who has failed to cover 11 consecutive games on their home field. QB Vick (hamstring) is expected to get the call this week, though it is unknown at press time if he will be fully recovered. Mental edge to division rival New York, who lost this matchup just 3 weeks ago 36-21. The G-Men played a bit better on MNF in their 23-7 victory over the Vikings. Or was it the Vikings who played poorly? In any case, the Giants found a winning formula, combining a +2 net TO margin with a 64-30 advantage in the running game. It will impede their overland efforts if RB Jacobs (hamstring) is not in the lineup. It must be noted that for the season, Philly is running 32 times per game for 163/5.1, while the Giants are only running 21 times a game for 67/3.2. Though a case could be made for a New York letdown following their inaugural win of the season on MNF, it has been historically profitable to back division road dogs following an appearance under the Monday night lights. Nothing stronger than this rating, because of the potential overland advantage which may be authored by the Eagles.
Bob Balfe
Detroit Lions -3
Detroit is coming off a tough loss to the Bengals last week. I think the difference in that game is Cincinnati actually has a good offensive and defensive line. The Cowboys won’t be able to get a pass rush with their injuries on defense and the big physical receivers for the Lions will have all day at home to get wide open. Detroit has a very solid defensive line that I believe will make Tony Romo uncomfortable this afternoon. Take the Lions at home.
Dave Cokin
Atlanta vs Arizona
Play: Arizona -2.5
If you recall last Sunday’s analysis of the Texans-Chiefs game, I made a case for Houston based as much as anything on how I knew what the masses would do as soon as I saw the opening line.
Here we go again. The Arizona Cardinals have shown up as small home chalk as they host the Atlanta Falcons. Without any examination of the game whatsoever, there is no question as to which team would command the vast majority of the tickets punched. Note that when I reference this, I’m only talking about the percentages on the wagers, not the dollars. There are games played every week in both college and the NFL where there might be 75% of the total wagers on one side, but the majority of the dollars are on the 25% side.
And so here we have the Falcons getting pounded by the bettors as if the game has already been played. It’s not difficult to see why. Atlanta is still perceived as a good team, a playoff contender at the very least. The Cardinals are, well, the Cardinals.
The actual reality is that the Falcons are 2-4, and winless on the road. The Cardinals are 3-4, and 2-1 at home. That’s a really simplified observation, and a little misleading as the metrics indicate the Falcons are indeed the slightly superior team. That said, it’s sure not a slam dunk.
If you were to ask me what my favorite betting scenario is, I have the immediate answer. I love fading public underdogs, regardless of the sport. Obviously, these bets don’t always win. But it’s also my contention that if you just blindly bet the favorite when the dog is getting 70%+ of the ticket count, you’re winning at a pretty impressive clip. That’s going to be the case on this game. So while I think this game is pretty close to a coin flip on the analysis, I’m going to have no problem grabbing the Cardinals today.