Chris Jordan
My free play for Sunday is on the Miami Dolphins getting it done in New England, as this AFC East rivalry will be closer than most think.
Both come into this one having struggled most recently, with the Dolphins losing their last three and the Patriots dropping two of their last three. New England's lone win in there, a last-second win over the Saints.
Though the Pats have won the last six meetings, I don't trust their defense, which isn't as threatening as it used to be and will have a problem in containing Miami's Ryan Tannehill, who threw a career-high three scoring passes last Sunday. Look for the Dolphins to balance things out by running the ball against the Patriots defense, which has been vulnerable to runs up middle.
On defense, the Fins will have a field day, mark my words. This is where the Patriots have had problems, especially on third down. After going 1 for 12 last week against the Jets, New England is now 7 for 39 on third-down conversions in its last three games.
Sorry, but this will be closer than most expect. Take the underdog.
2♦ MIAMI
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is for the points to ring up at Sports Authority Field when Mike Shanahan returns to Denver with his Washington Redskins.
After playing 3 straight Unders, Washington revved up the offense last week with nearly 500 yards of total offense as they combined with Chicago for 86 points in the easiest Over of the week.
More of the same this week as they take on a Denver team that is coming off their first loss of the season last Sunday night, yet still managed to post 33 points in the setback, as the Broncos made it a perfect 7-for-7 Over the total for the season.
Both teams defenses have proved to be quite vulnerable for the majority of the year, and while this is the biggest total on the Week Eight schedule, I think there is little choice here but to play the Over and sit back and watch the offenses have their way.
3♦ WASHINGTON-DENVER OVER
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Detroit Lions as three-point dogs in a game I'm asking you to buy the 1/2 point up to +3 1/2 in case of the Detroit FG win.
Dallas has definitely surprised me to this point.
They have won three straight games since an ugly loss to San Diego, scoring with a more balanced attack than they had at the beginning of the year.
It was all Tony Romo early on, but now that DeMarco Murray and Joseph Randle have opened things up for Romo by running the ball effectively, it's made Dallas a more balanced offense.
These two teams are fairly even, but Tony Romo has some unfinished business to take care of in this game. If you'll remember the last time these two teams faced each other, the Cowboys had a 24-point lead, but a couple of Tony Romo third quarter interceptions let Detroit get right back in the game, and eventually the Lions would come away with a miraculous 34-30 come-from-behind win when they had no business being in that game.
These two offenses will match each other punch for punch offensively, but I have a tad more faith in Dallas's defense after watching them against Philly last week.
Take Dallas as your free play of the day.
4♦ DALLAS
Brad Wilton
My Sunday free play is the underdog Giants to cover at the Eagles.
Hats off to New York, as Big Blue recorded their first straight up winner on Monday night when they took care of the hapless Vikings in a 23-7 win and cover. Can the G-Men make it two straight wins?
Could be, as Philadelphia comes in quite thin at quarterback with Mike Vick and his injured frame back under center while Nick Foles sits it out with concussion-like symptoms. The Eagles did win 36-21 at MetLife Stadium in early October in a game that really could have gone either way, but the problem facing Philly is the fact that last Sunday's loss to Dallas at Lincoln Financial was their 9th in a row straight up in their own backyard.
That's right, Philadelphia is on a 9 game home losing skid, and an 11 game losing skid at home versus the line. You also consider that the Giants have gone 5-2 against the spread their last 7 visits to the Linc, and I think you have to take the points in this one.
4♦ N.Y. GIANTS
Brett Atkins
Let's take the Kansas City Chiefs as a free play tonight, as I think their defense is going to swarm the Browns and suffocate them en route to another resounding win. The AFC West leaders are the league's only undefeated team, and yet most power polls have Denver and Seattle ranked 1 and 2.
I don't know when the Chiefs will start getting their respect, but it can't come soon enough, as that defense is deadly.
The Chiefs, who are 8-3-1 against Browns in Kansas City, have the fifth-best defense in the league, led by the third-best passing D. Kansas City's stop unit has not allowed more than 17 points in game and the team leads the NFL in turnover differential (plus-11).
Last week the Browns lost to the Packers, 31-13, and now to have to play this game on the road, I just don't see them stepping up here.
Lay the points.
4♦ KANSAS CITY
Sean Michaels
Gave you an easy comp winner last night on Texas in revenge at TCU.
Gave you an easy comp winner last Sunday on San Francisco at Tennessee.
12-5 roll with these comp plays heading into today's selection on Arizona (-2') at home against Atlanta.
I know the Rams have lost two in a row, but those losses did come against the best of the NFC West, San Fran and Seattle. Having a couple of extra days prep time following the Thursday night loss to the Seahawks two weeks ago can only help Bruce Arians' squad.
Atlanta got a gift from the schedule-makers last Sunday when it hosted winless Tampa Bay. The Falcons held on for a 31-23 win to snap a three-game skid.
The Falcons continue to struggle defensively. The 23 points they allowed to the sad-sack Bucs matched a season low. They had allowed 30, 30 and 27 during their losing skid. With no pass rush to bother Carson Palmer, the Cards should be able to do some damage through the air just like everyone else has in scorching Atlanta's secondary.
On the injury front, the Falcons - who are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road outings - should have Steven Jackson back in action. But his return will not be enough to compensate for the absence of receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones.
Big, big game for Arizona as a win squares the team's record at .500 heading into a bye week. They've already beaten the Lions (25-21) and Panthers (22-6) at home and hung tough with Seattle (34-22 loss).
2♦ ARIZONA
Harry Bondi
SAN FRANCISCO (-14.5) over Jacksonville
It does not matter that this game is being played in England or on the moon the Jaguars have been non competitive in all their games this year going 1-6 ATS with their only cover coming when they were the biggest underdog in NFL history at Denver! This line is much more manageable and with nothing but a bye week ahead for the Niners we expect a fully focused effort from Jim Harbaugh's boys. Take San Fran over Jacksonville.
Sam Martin
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Bad spot for the Jets, coming into this game on the road at Cincinnati in a big letdown spot after upsetting New England with a huge second-half comeback (and winning on a questionable call to boot). That win will easily be the Jets biggest win of the year, and we're not convinced they can come back one week later and duplicate that effort against the Bengals today. Cincy has won three straight and you can't beat the Bengals on the ground - you need to pass on them to beat them. That's not the way the Jets are build and we'll back the Bengals to win this game easily. 5* Play on Cincinnati.
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Oakland Raiders
The simulator shows a high probability that the Raiders will win this game by 3 or more points. The Steeler defense has played well, especially considering just how poor the offensive has been this season. The same can be stated about the Raiders. However, much of the woes of the Raider offense has been attributed to a revolving door of OL players. This has been in large part due to injuries. However, the OL that will start today matches up very well against the Steelers defensive front. The Steelers best defender has been LaMarr Woodley, who ahs the third best pass rushing productivity grade among 3-4 linebackers having only rushed 64% of the snaps. The Raiders have weapons to make certain he keeps to that precentage or even lower. Moreover, Steelers former second-round pick Worlids and rookie first-rounder Jarvis Jones have struggled to fill the void left by James Harrison?s departure. The pair has combined for one sack, three hits, and nine hurries over six games and their inconsistent play will be exploited by the Raiders. The Raiders can also use a RB to 'read' Woodley and then release to the flat, if he drops into converage. If Woodley rushes the QB, then the Rb will offer double-team help or 'chip' blocks to then get into space for screen and simple to complete passes. The other asset for the Raiders is the athleticsm of QB Pryor and WR Moore. If the Steelers bring pressure, it almost certainly has to be form the perimieter in a 'sam/will' scheme. Pryor will only run from pressure up the middle. With pressure coming from the perimeter, it offers the opportunity for Pryor to thorw flag patterns to Moore over the middle of the field knowing he has man coverage and no deep safelty help. The SIM sghows that the Steelers ground game will be weak projecting 50 to 75 yards. In past games, the Raiders are 6-1 ATS the past three seasons and 24-5 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 50 to 75 rushing yards. Take the Raiders.
Freddy Wills
Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions -3
The Lions are a tough team to beat on the road and though the Cowboys offense and defense has been clicking in back to back weeks they were still -220 yards against the Redskins. They also face a healthy QB this week and they'll play banged up. Cowboys have too many injuries to fight off right now and I think the Lions come up with a big win without Demarcus Ware pressuring Stafford it could be a long day for the Cowboys defense. We have not seen how good this Lions offense can be, because of injuries but with both Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush active today we are about to find out.
Doug Upstone
Giants vs. Eagles
Play: Over 49½
On Sunday Play OVER on home teams against the total like Philadelphia, out-rushing their opponents by one or more yards per carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their last game. Over the past five seasons, this totals system is 28-7, 80 percent.
Andre Gomes
Jets / Bengals Under 41.5
Cincinnati is coming from two road wins at Buffalo and at Detroit. Their game against the Bills (#1 fast paced team) went to overtime and then, they faced the Lions, a good pass offense team that saw Calvin Johnson have a Godlike second half in that game. On the other hand, the Jets are coming from a mega win on overtime against the Patriots, where they showed once again their conservative offense, with 33 pass plays and 52(!) rushing plays! Chris Ivory carried the football 34 times last week, so I believe he will struggle to make an impact today after such an effort last week. As usual, Cincinnati's defense is a top 10 team against both the pass and the run and so, I believe the Jets' offense will struggle in here, in a clear emotional letdown for them.
On the other hand, I don't expect the Bengals' offense to cause any issues to the Jets' defense on the running game. The main reason for that is the fact that the Jets' run defense has been insanely good this season, with a defensive rush DVOA of -46.9%, -50.1%, -52.5%, -35.9%, -23.7%, -27.6% and +11.1% on their games this season! A.J. Green is Cincinnati's main and almost unique target on offense and the Jets with Antonio Cromartie should limit Green decently today. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
NEW ORLEANS -11 over Buffalo: Coming off a bye week the Saints have been awesome of late as they have won their last 4 post bye games and have outscored their opponents by 17 ppg in the process. Making it even worse for the Bills in this one is the fact that prior to the bye week the Saints had that awful last minute loss to Brady and the Patriots and they have been itching to get back on the field ever since. The Bills are 3-4 on the year and despite the fact that they lost in OT vs Cincinnati and beat Miami in their last 2 games, they have been outgained by 93 ypg in the 2 games. The Saints have been awesome at home, going 3-0, while outscoring foes by 20 ppg and outgaining them by 120.7 ypg on this field. The Bills come in 18th in total offense and 30th in passing offense and will be without Spiller, which will hurt the ground game and allow a very good Saint's defense to tee off on rookie QB Thad Lewis. On Defense the Bills are not that good either, ranking 24th overall and 21st vs the pass. On the other side we have a Saints squad that is 6th overall and 2nd in passing on offense, while their much improved defense comes in 11th overall, 9th vs the pass and 4th in points allowed (17.2 ppg). A week to prepare for the Saints and coming of that tough loss to the Pats before the bye should have New Orleans primed for a 17+ point win here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Denver/ Washington Over 58.5: Can they really make an OU line high enough for Bronco Games? All 7 Denver games have gone over the total this year and they have done so by an average of 18.1 ppg. The Broncos have the best offense in the league, averaging 42.6 ppg and 469.3 ypg on the year. They also have the top passing offense at 361.3 ypg and will be facing a Washington defense that has allowed 262.8 ypg through the air, which is 22nd in the league. Last week RG3 finally looked like his old self and he will be going up against a porous Denver defense that is 30th in yards allowed and 32nd in passing yards allowed. Couple of trends of note here... The Over is 17-5-1 if a team scored 40 and allowed 40 points in their last game, while AFC favorites in game 6 on out off their first loss of the year have gone 10-0 to the Over the last 10 times it has come up. This game has 65+ points written all OVER it.
Detroit/ Dallas Over 50.5: This one should be a fun one. The Lions have gone Over the total in the last 6 game 8's, while we note that since 2008 all non-divisional home favs off a SU loss with an OU line of 43 or higher, have gone 10-2 to the Over if they are playing the week before their bye. The Lions come in ranked 7th in total offense and 5th in passing offense and will be facing an injury riddled Dallas defense that is 29th overall and 30th vs the pass. For Dallas, they come in at 13th overall and 8th in passing, while the Lions are at 31st in total defense and 28th vs the pass. Detroit home games have averaged a whopping 60.4 ppg and 819.3 ypg, while the last 4 in this series has put up 60.8 ppg, with each of those games hitting at least 54 points. Sit back and enjoy the fireworks.
2 UNIT PLAYS
NEW ENGLAND -6 over Miami: This is an angry Patriots team as they are coming off a loss to the hated Jets and they are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games off a loss. The Patriot also should have their full compliment of receivers back this week, with the return of Amendola, plus Gronkowski has a week of play under his belt, so he should have a better game in this one, even though he caught 8 passes for 114 yards in his first game. Miami has problems on the OL and that hasn't helped Tannehill stay upright and the Patriots do have a solid pass rush which should pressure him into some mistakes. On the defensive side of the ball the Canes are very poor vs the pass, allowing 269 ypg, which is 25th in the league. Miami has lost 3 in a row and while the last 2 have been close losses I don't feel this one will be. The Patriots are finally healthy on offense and should exploit a weak Miami Pass defense. Pats by 10+ here.
Kansas City/ Cleveland Under 39: Boy this has the makings of an ugly defensive battle. The Browns come in ranked 7th in total defense, 6th vs the pass and 9th vs the Run, while allowing 22.3 ppg. On offense they are bad as they are 26th overall and 26th in scoring, averaging just 18.7 ppg. The Browns will also be turning to their 3rd QB of the year in Jason Campbel, so expect some growing pains there. The Chiefs defense is one of the best in the league, ranking 5th overall, 3rd vs the pass and 1st in points allowed 11.6 ppg, while on offense they are 26th in passing and are very conservative looking to run more, while relying on their defense to win games. KC home games have averaged just 33.8 ppg and that about the most I see here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh -1 over OAKLAND: They have won 2 in a row and have don't behind their defense that has allowed just 22 points in the last 2 games. Big Ben is also looking better and has been helped of late by the running game with Bell now healthy. That will help this offensive line for sure. The Raider OL is a mess and dealing with injuries. That should help the Steelers put plenty of pressure on Pryor and force him to some mistakes. The Steelers are the better team here and the Raiders are horrible off a bye week (Lost 10 in a row). Look for Pitt to win their 3rd game in a row here.
New York Giants +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles don't really play well at home and the Giants come in with momentum, following their Monday night win. This is a team that is known for putting some wins together, following a rough start. The Giants finally had a complete game on Monday night and Eli has had some good success vs the Eagles, with 18 Tds in his last 6 games vs them. Vick will be back for the Eagles, but still is it enough to jumps start this offense that has been floundering of late. The Giants have already seen this offense and that should help them prepare better for this one. The Giants should get revenge here for their loss at home earlier in the year to the Eagles.
Top 5 Power Angles For Today (13-7)
New England is 11-0 ATS vs teh AFC East off a SU Fave loss. Play On New England -6 over Miami
The Giants are 8-0 ATS off a Monday night game, when facing an opponent off a SU loss. Play on NY Giants +5.5 over Philadelphia
New Orleans is 11-0 ATS at home vs a Non-conf opponent that is off a SU dog win. Play On New Orleans -11 over Buffalo.
San Francisco is 8-2 to the Over vs winless teams from game 5 on out and they're 10-3 to the Over as favorites of 11 or more. Play San Francisco/ Jacksonville Over 40
The Atlanta Falcons are 10-2 to the Over in their last 12 vs the NFC West. Play Atlanta/ Arizona Over 46
SPORTS WAGERS
COLUMBUS -½ +143 over Anaheim
Regulation only. The Ducks are 8-3 and they have been playing well the entire season so far but we’re not so sure this is the best spot for them. To begin, Anaheim will play the fourth game of a long, eight-game trip after games in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa. After this game, it’s on to play in Philadelphia, Boston, Buffalo and finally New York at newly renovated Madison Square Gardens. Once could argue that of the eight games of this trip, this is the only one that is not in a true hockey city. There is no doubt that the Ducks are going to take a breather at some point during this trip and this looks like the place it could occur, especially after games against the Leafs, Habs and Sens. Incidentally, Jakob Silfverberg broke his hand in Ottawa and will now miss some significant time. That has to hurt because he was playing well on a strong secondary line.
Meanwhile, the Jackets are gaining steam. After struggling out of the gate, Columbus has now reeled off three in a row over Vancouver, New Jersey and Toronto while outscoring that trio 12-4. The Jackets last game, a 5-2 win over the Maple Leafs was their best game of the season so far. We also like that the Jackets are 11-2 over their past 13 games against the West and this is a strong situational spot to extend that impressive record to 11-3.
Wunderdog
Winnipeg at Colorado
Pick: Winnipeg +1.5
Winnipeg is in Colorado with a 2-1-1 road record, and off a 2-1 win at Dallas as a +130 dog. This team is playing hard, with four one-goal games in the last five contests. They rank 13th in penalty killing, and the last game the Jets' penalty kill was excellent in killing off four chances. Colorado is still trying to recover from a tough stretch, playing five of seven on the road. After coming home from a 3-game trip they went 1-1 against Dallas and Detroit as chalk of -175 and -140, winning 3-2 and losing 4-2. This is a similar situation, home for a 2-game stand after a 2-game trip. Avalanche LW Cody McLeod is still out, serving the fourth contest of the five-game suspension for his hit from behind on Detroit's Niklas Kronwall. When these Central Division rivals meet, the Jets are 5-2 in the last seven meetings, including 5-1 in the last six meetings in Colorado. Plus the road team is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings. The value here is with the underdog Jets on the Puck-Line at -155.